steve
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Post by steve on May 8, 2024 7:43:56 GMT
Meanwhile further on inappropriate prison sentences, despite spending hundreds of millions on expanding the prison estate it's estimated that there will be no capacity left by July despite a government policy of early release by up to 70 days.
Inappropriate use of custodial sentences has always been an interest of mine not because I'm a wishy washy liberal but because I've seen the impact of prison policy as a police officer.
I have friends who have been prison inmates, not all of whom are ex coppers, and it's a traumatic experience.
Short term custodial sentences are provably the worst method to discourage re-offending , people who go into prisons without a drug habit routinely come out with one and there are literally tens of thousands of people in custody who shouldn't be there now or should never have been incarcerated at all.
There are over 5000 people currently in prison for non payment of fines, the original sentence of a fine rather than another non custodial sentence is the problem , these people pose no risk, there are still nearly 1500 prisoners on IPP sentences , over a thousand of whom would have now been released under determinate sentences.
There are over 3000 women in prison for non violent offences , they don't need to be there, there are over 25,000 male prisoners in the same category, sentenced to short terms in prison when a non custodial remedy would be more appropriate and more effective.
Over half of prisoners have mental health issues, they need treatment and support not being banged up 23 hours a day.
So what's the regime's solution,
Build more prisons, to see them not staffed properly and full up in weeks.
Introduce an entirely new crime of " shoplifting" with a 6 month term, total cobblers of course as theft already carries a maximum penalty of seven years in prison.
Reduce the number of courts and reduce the size of the probation service.
Underfund mental health services.
What's the definition of insanity again?
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Post by crossbat11 on May 8, 2024 8:01:05 GMT
One of the oft forgotten political fall outs from a disastrous round of local elections results for a party (usually the governing one), beyond the obvious ones of damaged morale, the acquisition of that pervasive and clinging feeling of losing and the loss of local power-wielding, is the further denuding of party foot-soldiers; often the unsung heroes of electioneering.
Labour became the largest party in local government, for the first time for a very long time in May 2023, and last Thursday saw that superiority on the ground become yet more entrenched. The Tories lost very nearly 500 more councillors and both Labour and the Lib Dems increased their numbers significantly.
Councillors, as anyone who has been involved in electioneering will know, are often the nucleus and key organisers of local campaigning efforts. They have almost encyclopaedic knowledge of the terrain, both its geography and inhabitants. The political nuances and peculiarities too, almost down to each household. Their prime role is representing their constituents on the council but, at election times, they become the NCOs of the ground campaign.
It would be silly to claim that only councillors make up the army of party stalwarts, activists and supporters who come out to form the campaign teams at election time, and many recently defeated Tory councillors will no doubt still remain active, but the Tories will feel the loss of the thousand or more of their councillors over the last couple of years when the general election comes around. Many of these former councillors, I suspect, will pack in politics for good. A mixture of disillusionment and apathy. They may quite like, and get quickly used to too, the resumption of a normal non-political life!
To illustrate this, look no further than my old hometown of Redditch. Where there were well over 20 Tory councillors only 13 months ago, there are now only 5. That's an awful lot of ears to the ground and local organisers gone. Replicate that attrition rate across the country, and the Tory ground machine, never in a great state of repair anyway since the Thatcherite glory days, is much weakened. Their falling and ageing membership doesn't help either.
This will matter more than a lot of people think when we all march towards the sound of gunfire in a few months time.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 8, 2024 8:09:33 GMT
Ukraine: Expect some big hits on Russian targets inside Russia with UK made weapons soon. The Russian Foreign Ministry has said Russia can strike "any British military installations and equipment in or outside Ukraine" if Ukraine uses British weapons to strike them. Empty threats; call their bluff. One thing I am grateful for about this country is that we will call their bluff. This sort of bully boy scare tactic might work on an SPD led German government but not on a British govt of any stripe. The West in general, including America, have to stop tip-toeing around Russia, it just emboldens them, logically, as they see that this stuff gets results. All they respect is a hard refusal to play their game. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 8, 2024 8:09:35 GMT
Was relieved Khan won London in the end - those rumours about a close contest and Hall victory had me slightly spooked even though it seemed fairly implausible ( bizarre way to do expectation management from Cons though). That's an interesting point - I wonder how/why the Conservatives became so convinced they had done well in London when actually they went backwards, and what that says about the state of the CCHQ operation. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 8, 2024 8:18:41 GMT
@fecklessmiser - "Can we all ignore this now please?" Yes! What is it we're meant to be ignoring, btw? ********* On the local election results: I think Labour will be deliriously happy with these. It couldn't be any better. They've secured a range of stonking results, seen the Lib Dems also score well in their strong areas, and have hard evidence of tactical anti Tory voting the likes of which we haven't seen since the 1990s. They didn't have it all their own way though, with the anticipated Gaza effect alongside a drift to the Greens in some areas, highlighting a modest threat from the left. But Sunak rides to the rescue once again. The talk of hung parliaments is gold dust to Starmer, as I think athena flagged up. He'll love this, and this is where a biased media sometimes helps you if it is biased and stupid. Of course there won't be a hung parliament, but what better for Starmer than the media talking this up? It will help prevent too many peeling away, and helps contain the boredom of expectation. On top of that, the Tory Madness embodied by Suella herself continues to shine. She genuinely thinks being more right wing is essential for their survival, and serves to further illustrate the choice ahead. The week couldn't have been better for Labour. I can just about see where Sunak might be going on this. Hung parliaments have a very poor recent reputation in British politics for obvious reasons and most voters would probably want to avoid another one. At the moment large numbers of erstwhile tory voters may be planning to sit on their hands at the next election assuming a Labour majority govt is inevitable. If the tories can hoodwink them into believing a hung parliament is likely they may feel emboldened to turn out instead of abstaining in a deluded belief that a small tory majority could be obtained (as Cameron exhorted them to in 2015) and thereby at least limit the scale of the inevitable defeat. I suspect that's what the thinking might be in any case. |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 8, 2024 8:52:15 GMT
The fact is that events do evoke memories of the Nazis and make it reasonable for people of insight to draw parallels. That was true of what occurred in the Bosnian war of the 1990s - well illustrated by the ethnic cleansing we saw at Sebrenica and elsewhere. That same ethnic cleansing is to be seen today in Gaza - and I find it surprising that so many appear so blind to the parallels which are there to see - whilst at the same time being so willing to bow to the standards of humbug and hypocrisy imposed by others - including the Western Establishment. Some of us may be keener than others to learn from the dark historical lessons of the Holocaust. Graham has a point, although he doesn't usually make his points very well and is too inclined to go over the top. The treatment of The Holocaust as something completely exceptional in history, rather than just as the worst example of something that repeatedly happened during the 20th Century and is still happening today (e.g. Myanmar) downgrades other examples. Graham quotes the Bosnian war, and I would add to that the genocide of the Armenians by the Ottoman Turks during World War 1. My own belief is that part of the reason for emphasising The Holocaust as exceptional is Western liberal guilt. During those years before World War 2, countries all over the world, particularly the USA and UK were refusing to accept Jewish immigrants from Germany. Whilst we pride ourselves on the Kindertransport, we forget that all those children had parents who sent their children to somewhere they hoped would be safe, knowing that they were likely never to see them again. It's easy to forget how common anti-semitism was in this country before World War 2; just think of the number of supporters that Oswald Moseley had, or the aristocrats like the Mitfords. Moseley, before he founded the British Union of Fascists, was a Labour MP, having fallen out with the Conservatives over Ireland and the actions of the Black and Tans and crossed the floor. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 8, 2024 8:53:09 GMT
domjgI think you're right about what might lie behind the Tories tactics of trying to talk up the prospect of a hung Parliament. I know we're second guessing things here, and it's becoming ever more difficult to discern anything very much strategic or tactical about Tory thinking these days, but I think there might be two things going on here. Firstly, the idea that Labour aren't a shoo-in could be an attempt to rally falling hopes and prevent despair in Tory ranks. The polls are wrong, it isn't all over and there's a fight still worth fighting. The Thrasher PNV projection is a straw to clutch. Secondly, the muscle memory in Tory circles of the success of the 2015 campaign and the poster of Milliband's head peeping up out of Salmond's jacket pocket. Vote Labour and get the SNP the message. That frightened many a horse into Cameron's big stable. They may hope that raising the prospect again of a rainbow coalition of chaos and the spectre of SNP MPs in a Starmer cabinet will put the fear of God again into the minds of wavering Tory voters. A very long shot on both counts but as long as they can rely on most of the client media to help them peddle the nonsense, where there's life there's hope. Worth a shot, in other words. P.S. The usefulness of floating the spectre of SNP involvement in a Labour minority government is why what is happening in Scottish politics now is such terrible news for the Tories. If Labour looks in course for a comfortable majority government and re-establishes its electoral presence in Scotland, then then the SNP card is no longer in the Tory pack to play. It also makes Labour's claims to be the only truly GB wide political party in existence to be plausible once again. Fighting and winning in every far flung corner of this island.
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Post by leftieliberal on May 8, 2024 8:57:28 GMT
Ok. Last one for the night unless someone else posts while I'm writing this. I've mentioned before that all my immediate neighbours are Asians of one description or another. They all seem to be decent people and try to do the right thing. I was amused today because soon after I started mowing my lawn at least 3 other mowers started up. Does this make me one of the 'community leaders' that politicians are so fond of talking about, or does it have to be based on race or religion? The good news for you is that clearly none of your neighbours can be left wing, as based on your earlier post lefties would be far too lazy to mow the lawn.  Lefties (or at least some of them) believe in "No Mow May". It saves you time and is better for the environment. I refer to those neat mown lawns as "green deserts". |
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Post by jimjam on May 8, 2024 8:58:48 GMT
The coalition of chaos mantra worked in 2015 as Ed Milliband was sufficiently perceived to be a likely pushover for the SNP.
IMO, this wont work with Starmer.
I do think Sunak has miscalculated and all he will succeed in doing is entrenching tactical voting (why risk voting for the party I prefer to ABT) and help Labours' complacency is the enemy mantra.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 8, 2024 9:02:52 GMT
A bit of primary news from the U.S. In Indiana despite Nikki Hayley dropping out of the republican presidential candidate race over two months ago she still won 22% of the vote against the criminal. There's still an element of denial about who the candidates are, the large majority of Americans much like the UK don't take the remotest bit of interest in politics between elections,magnified by the federal system of the U.S. But denying that the candidate for the republicans is a convicted , narcissistic,insane, rapist, liar is getting harder to ignore. While polling sees trump and Biden at parity when republicans are given an opportunity to actually vote for trump around 20% of them won't. youtu.be/sJqiRMfXstM?si=jUTR5jztnEB0fnvY |
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Post by alec on May 8, 2024 9:04:44 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on May 8, 2024 9:05:05 GMT
"Lefties (or at least some of them) believe in "No Mow May"
I was working on the principle of ground still too bloody soggy to bother.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 8, 2024 9:08:36 GMT
The good news for you is that clearly none of your neighbours can be left wing, as based on your earlier post lefties would be far too lazy to mow the lawn. Lefties (or at least some of them) believe in "No Mow May". It saves you time and is better for the environment. I refer to those neat mown lawns as "green deserts". One thing that dismayed me when we moved to our current village street from urban, alternativey East Oxford three years ago was the obsession with lawn mowing. We leave our grass much longer than others intentionally and had a wild flower patch last year which I'm hoping to repeat. I always feel bad mowing down a dandelion that I've just seen a bee visiting. Some of our (otherwise lovely) neighbours are obsessed with lawn mowing to the extent that their grass never gets anywhere near as high as ours does when it's at it's shortest. The older couple over the road, who we have a good relationship with, even took it upon themselves to mow our front lawn unbidden when we were away for a few days shortly after we moved here. I wasn't happy about it but accepted that they did it with good intentions. |
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wb61
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Post by wb61 on May 8, 2024 9:19:20 GMT
The good news for you is that clearly none of your neighbours can be left wing, as based on your earlier post lefties would be far too lazy to mow the lawn. Lefties (or at least some of them) believe in "No Mow May". It saves you time and is better for the environment. I refer to those neat mown lawns as "green deserts". "No mow May" is fine if you have managed to mow in March or April, the rain in my part of Wales has prevented that and there would be a jungle if I left it any longer, the approach we take is to have wild(ish) borders, lots of bluebells under our trees, forget-me-nots in abundance and (although I hate them) controlled levels of nettle and bramble in the more inaccessible areas. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 8, 2024 9:24:34 GMT
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Post by athena on May 8, 2024 9:26:29 GMT
I can confirm that as a good leftie and greenie my 'lawn' won't be mowed until September!
Mowing the lawn and vacuuming are amongst my least favourite domestic tasks because of the noise, so I've been steadily getting rid of the carpets in my house and converting the lawn into a 'meadow' (anyone who thinks this is the lazy option hasn't tried it). I was rather hoping the local cat population might dislike the extra effort involved in fighting their way through long grass and plague someone else, but it's been the opposite. It brings out their wild side and they seem to enjoy the stalking opportunities (mainly butterflies, frogs and the occasional dragonfly, I think). When they're fed up of harassing wildlife they curl up in their favourite spot for a snooze, invariably flattening a wildflowery bit in the process.
It's apparently illegal to fire water pistols at them, but I'm sorely tempted to get a supersoaker and plead poor aim if challenged...
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 8, 2024 9:27:21 GMT
And welcome to today's edition of 'Gardeners Question Time' ... Still, preferable to going round the Brexit, Covid and Corbyn loops again! |
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2024 9:45:05 GMT
mercian“ I've said before that I can see a fundamental conflict between Labour's traditional socially progressive attitude and the views of those from other cultures many of whom have voted Labour in recent times.” I suppose you need something to keep your spirits up.
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2024 10:00:58 GMT
And welcome to today's edition of 'Gardeners Question Time' ... Still, preferable to going round the Brexit, Covid and Corbyn loops again! Not to mention much of yesterday's bizarre and disturbing 'debate'. |
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Post by alec on May 8, 2024 10:10:17 GMT
athena - "Mowing the lawn and vacuuming are amongst my least favourite domestic tasks..." Just a quickie, but in general most folks don't vacuum the lawn. You can buy mowers that gather up the clippings as you go if that's an issue for you.
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Post by leftieliberal on May 8, 2024 10:23:13 GMT
It looks like we will be paying for the HS2 tunnel to Euston after all. A source told the paper that the Government still hoped to recoup the costs of constructing the tunnel to Euston, but they now expected this would only happen once the wider development around the station was completed.
The Department for Transport did not deny that it the tunnelling portion of the expansion to Euston would be funded by the taxpayer, stating that the Government “remains committed to delivering a privately financed Euston station”.This does not surprise me. The tunnelling machines for this section have already been delivered and by starting tunnelling now they avoid having to lay off engineering staff and re-hire them later, which just costs more money.
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Post by graham on May 8, 2024 10:30:42 GMT
An interesting comment from PoliticalBetting.com
'Led by a lawyer who says Israel has the right to cut off the electricity and water to millions of Palestinian civilians, the Labour party has removed its 2019 manifesto from its website. You can't even get that document now by typing "Labour party manifesto 2019" and asking the advertising company Google to help you out, so journalists with short attention spans will be at a loss.
But it's still available from the Wayback Machine at archive.org, and in any case I have a copy.
Respect to anyone inside or outside the Labour party who is ready to admit that Labour under Jeremy Corbyn were RIGHT in 2019 when they promised
* to suspend the sale of weapons to Israel used in violation of the human rights of Palestinian civilians;
* to reform the "international rules-based order" to secure justice and accountability for breaches of human rights and international law, such as the blockade of Gaza
* to recognise immediately the state of Palestine.
This is of course very verbose, but what it means is
1. stop arming Israel
2. issue warrants for the arrest of Israeli war criminals
3. recognise Palestine
- policies that in 2024 pretty much anyone who opposes crimes against humanity realises the urgency of implementing. And what does Labour under Sir Genocide Keir do? It tries to hide the fact that before he took it over the party had these policies. If Labour under Corbyn had been elected, this is the mandate that the British government would have had. Now look at the creeps in office led by Sunak and Cameron.'
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Post by leftieliberal on May 8, 2024 10:31:24 GMT
An interesting political development, reported in the i newspaper. Inside Labour’s plan to stop the Green surgeLabour has drawn up a dossier of Green activists blocking environmental schemes across the country in a bid to see off the threat of losing voters on the left, i can reveal.
In a sign of how worried the party is about the rise of support for the Greens in parts of the country, Labour has collated a list of major environmental projects, including plans for solar farms and major wind developments, that have been blocked or opposed by the Green Party.
The dossier, seen by i, includes examples where the Greens opposed three proposals for solar farms in mid-Suffolk, including one in Somersham where the party voted with the Conservatives to block the plans.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 8, 2024 10:38:10 GMT
I can confirm that as a good leftie and greenie my 'lawn' won't be mowed until September! Mowing the lawn and vacuuming are amongst my least favourite domestic tasks because of the noise, so I've been steadily getting rid of the carpets in my house and converting the lawn into a 'meadow' (anyone who thinks this is the lazy option hasn't tried it). I was rather hoping the local cat population might dislike the extra effort involved in fighting their way through long grass and plague someone else, but it's been the opposite. It brings out their wild side and they seem to enjoy the stalking opportunities (mainly butterflies, frogs and the occasional dragonfly, I think). When they're fed up of harassing wildlife they curl up in their favourite spot for a snooze, invariably flattening a wildflowery bit in the process. It's apparently illegal to fire water pistols at them, but I'm sorely tempted to get a supersoaker and plead poor aim if challenged... "It's apparently illegal to fire water pistols at them" - I didn't know that! I used to use a plant sprayer on my now departed psycho, but much loved, rescue cat when he got too out of hand. Apparently they don't associate you with having caused them to get wet as there's no direct contact so don't get resentful but still learn the association with bad behaviour, or so I was told anyway. |
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Post by shevii on May 8, 2024 10:43:06 GMT
I think it's worth saying that the IHRA definition is somewhat contentious and its adoption has been opposed by human rights groups such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch (as well as some Israeli groups) as they hold it's "often been used to wrongly label criticism of Israel as antisemitic, and thus chill and sometimes suppress, non-violent protest, activism and speech critical of Israel and/or Zionism, including in the US and Europe". Eg link. I'm not going to go to bat for invoking Nazism at every opportunity because I don't go in for it myself and I understand why people find it distasteful, but y'know, we're not talking about a politician making a few off colour remarks, we're talking about a state engaged in (or accused of, if people find that more comforting) violent occupation, war crimes, genocide and ethnic cleansing so in this instance I'm not sure it really merits all the handwringing on here. Yes. I was going to stay out of this one as graham's original comment that kicked off this discussion would not have been one I would have used or defended as it was rather obscure making it "clever" rather than passionate, even though I accept he is passionate about Gaza. Also no point arguing with the ref as it's down to the forum mods how they are going to operate and anticipate a big row developing that we often see here wrecking the forum for a day or so. As others have pointed out there are better ways to make the same point without resorting to comparisons with Nazis but I really don't think it is antisemitic to compare Israel's actions to the Nazis as there are similarities in many of their actions, if not to the degree of the Holocaust where Hitler was trying to wipe Jews off the face of the earth. The Israeli aim is to get the Palestinian lands for themselves and don't care what happens to the Palestinians which is obviously different from the Holocaust but many of their outcomes are similar with the indiscriminate deaths of civilians, rounding up and torture and detention of innocents etc. The "handwringing" about language when a genocide is taking place just seems a little bit like getting your priorities wrong. A quibble about language or comparisons makes no difference to the victims. Also I would suggest that it is entirely appropriate to make a comparison by way of shaming them- ie this happened to you and now you are doing something similar. If the ANC in South Africa was imposing some form of Apartheid against white people it would be entirely appropriate to make the comparison there I think. Obviously there are some no go areas in South Africa for white people but this is a law and order function rather than anything officially sanctioned and hard to police in heavily populated violent urban areas where black people are also at risk. I'm a bit conflicted on how far we go on these types of things- we now have "tragedy chanting" at football being treated as a serious crime and in one sense it is and some people will be hurt by this, but I suspect that mostly the people doing it see it as "banter" and just haven't thought through that some people will be deeply upset by it- certainly Hillsborough is a recent memory but Munich less so. I think it is right to stamp this out but equally I think the authorities and press are putting a shock horror angle on this that isn't proportionate to someone who gets drunk and starts doing aeroplane hand gestures at opposing fans. Of course someone not brought up in football "culture" would struggle to understand why anyone needs any sort of banter or rivalry in the first place. Going back to the punk era there were some incredibly offensive songs, sometimes with some sort of "message" but often being offensive for the sake of being offensive. The Sex Pistols are considered a pretty mainstream group these days but plenty in their lyrics that people would have a right to object to. There was stuff like Derek & Clive and I found Derek & Clive very funny and much funnier than the Pete & Dud stuff and it was clearly meant to be over the top, whereas I find some of the mainstream stuff like Little Britain pretty offensive because of the messages it sends out about gays having chips on their shoulders or disabled people faking it and their carers being gullible or mocking people with medical issues. There was a great Indie band called Microdisney that some on this forum will know. They made a compilation LP called "we hate you South African bastards" which got chuckles from mainstream presenters. The irony being that the record company suggested they should change the name to "we hate you white South African bastards" which was missing the point entirely, being a semi humorous dig at Apartheid apologists of the time. I wouldn't like to be like mercian and suggest people should be less snowflakey over issues that matter to them but I do think sometimes people are in danger of losing proportion on some of this language. |
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Post by guymonde on May 8, 2024 10:51:00 GMT
Was relieved Khan won London in the end - those rumours about a close contest and Hall victory had me slightly spooked even though it seemed fairly implausible ( bizarre way to do expectation management from Cons though). That's an interesting point - I wonder how/why the Conservatives became so convinced they had done well in London when actually they went backwards, and what that says about the state of the CCHQ operation. Of course what you have not taken into account is the reason the Conservatives didn't win. If Liz Truss or Suella Braverman were in charge of the party, they would have had a landslide. Even Tories don't understand this. The Tory members are all too inclined to be avocado eating vegan woke lefties |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 8, 2024 11:03:10 GMT
Shocker, Natalie Elphick defects to Labour
That really is a strange one
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Post by graham on May 8, 2024 11:15:17 GMT
Shocker, Natalie Elphick defects to Labour That really is a strange one I really cannot see Labour adopting her as candidate for Dover somehow. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 8, 2024 11:29:01 GMT
Natalie Elphicke MP for Dover hasn't just dumped her sex abuser ex husband but her human rights abusing party.
Now a Labour mp in a very winnable seat.
I've no idea whether she'll stand for Labour anywhere but the party does like lawyers from working class backgrounds so who knows.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 8, 2024 11:43:05 GMT
Elphicke says she's standing down at the next general election.
Labour's candidate in Dover is Former Army intelligence operator Mike Tapp.
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