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Post by leftieliberal on May 4, 2024 17:24:52 GMT
Obviously a digital-only campaign is more effective if your party qualifies for inclusion in broadcast debates, a party political broadcast and a national mailshot - I don't know what the criteria are, so I have no idea whether Ref will. Ditto whether it has the financial and intellectual resources to run an effective online campaign. I'm guessing not, on the basis that if it had, it would have made sense to campaign properly for at least some of the mayoralties. Entitlement to PPBs depends on how many candidates the Party puts up at the GE. Every candidate standing in a General Election is entitled to the Royal Mail free delivery, which can be unaddressed (Royal Mail deliver one leaflet to each house) or addressed (Royal Mail deliver one leaflet to each named elector). I'm not sure how effective a purely digital campaign would be; my party does spend money on Facebook ads, but I have heard that young people don't use Facebook. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 4, 2024 17:28:06 GMT
In less class than an upturned dustbin news. Losing Tory candidate in her losers whine made a number of allegations about Khan this was my favourite "He owes it to the families of those thousands of people who have lost lives to knife crime under his mayoralty." Where shall we start with that: London actually has a lower knife crime rate than most UK cities it's also lower than it was in 2015 when Spaffer was mayor. During Khan's 8 year mayoralty around 900 Londoners in total have sadly been the victims of homicide,around 500 were killed by sharp implements including knives. So Susan where the fuck are the other "thousands of victims" you assert ? Lying about the deaths of people , making up murder statistics. Classy stuff. * Sky news very kindly edited their report of her comments which they described as " pretty punchy" by replacing the words thousand that she said with hundreds which she didn't say , the guardian report said thousands which wasn't accurate either the rest of their transcript is verbatim. I've checked the speech and included a link around 28 minutes in if you want to take a look. www.youtube.com/live/uP4wFP0I6m0?si=uAxFDipqtlp68Pm2 |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 4, 2024 17:30:29 GMT
Doesn't this sink Labour's chances?
Labour’s West Midlands mayor candidate Richard Parker polled almost 14,000 votes more than Andy Street in the Birmingham City Council area.
Parker received 80,251 votes in the city, followed by Mr Street (66,296) and a strong showing of 40,923 votes for independent pro-Gaza candidate Akhmed Yakoob.
In Walsall, Street polled 24,735 votes, Parker 18,097 and Yakoob 8,451
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 4, 2024 17:31:25 GMT
This poll is 3 months old. The report is dated 14 Feb and the fieldwork was 24Jan-12 Feb. So the Conservatives might now be doing worse than these figures show. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2024 17:35:24 GMT
Media coverage of the constitutional aspect of mayoralties is woeful. I've yet to hear anyone get beyond 'Aren't mayors great, they can build a strong personal profile as a champion for their area and the success of nominally Con incumbents shows that mayors who deliver for their area are rewarded.' No mention of what a dog's breakfast they are - different powers, different per capita budgets, different relationships with other tiers of local govt, not to mention that not every region has a mayor and they're not all as high profile as Khan, Burnham and Street. (Despite being fairly interested in politics and living in South Yorkshire I had no idea that the mayoralty had been re-titled and what used to be a non-job with no/minimal power and no budget is now a real job, held by Coppard. I still don't have a clue what he actually does, other than that some of it is transport stuff and that he's been re-elected early because the PCC responsibilities are being rolled into the mayoralty.) No-one has pointed out that the mayors have to go cap in hand to the Treasury for money, thus allowing central government to influence mayoral policy and, almost inevitably, favour mayoralties of the same political hue. I've said before that I favour a federal UK, composed of English regions, Scotland and Wales, but the hotchpotch of mayoralties in England is not a good step towards decentralisation. It's not quite divide and rule, but it's a sleight of hand that leaves real power in the hands of Downing St. Real decentralisation would involve distributing funding from the central govt according to something like the Barnett formula or the Australian principle of horizontal fiscal equalisation (roughly speaking that every state should be able to provide the same standard of services and associated infrastructure). Of course without a codified constitution there will never be more than the accumulation of years of precedent to stop a Westminster government unpicking devolution or the financial settlements with devolved administrations. Launching Power and Partnership: Labour’s Plan to Power Up Britain, Labour leader Keir Starmer said: “As well as deploying the full power of government to deliver security for working people, we give power away and put communities in control. A new Take Back Control Act that sets a presumption towards devolution, and new powers for mayors over transport, skills, energy, and planning, so they can rejuvenate our high streets and generate growth for every town and city – a full fat approach to devolution. “The argument is simple. Democratic decisions are better made by local people with skin in the game. And devolution is absolutely essential for taking on regional inequality and unlocking that pride." |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2024 17:39:01 GMT
Doesn't this sink Labour's chances?Labour’s West Midlands mayor candidate Richard Parker polled almost 14,000 votes more than Andy Street in the Birmingham City Council area.
Parker received 80,251 votes in the city, followed by Mr Street (66,296) and a strong showing of 40,923 votes for independent pro-Gaza candidate Akhmed Yakoob.
In Walsall, Street polled 24,735 votes, Parker 18,097 and Yakoob 8,451 I presume Labour won big in Coventry - hence the recount. Walsall vote is not surprising if you look at the local elections there. The Tories did very well and dominate the council. |
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Post by athena on May 4, 2024 17:41:56 GMT
pjw1961It shouldn't surprise you that I actually read (or at least skim read) the Brown review. I wasn't impressed. Lab plans don't address my concerns, even assuming they're actually implemented, which I don't think is a given. One of many things I really didn't miss about this site during my brief absence was the propagandising.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 4, 2024 17:42:05 GMT
London was a bit of a rollercoaster, was quite nervous after some of the indications yesterday. Very relieved. Not sure I could have stood seeing Sunak celebrating at City Hall with the dreadful Hall.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 4, 2024 17:44:23 GMT
pjw1961 It shouldn't surprise you that I actually read (or at least skim read) the Brown review. I wasn't impressed. Lab plans don't address my concerns, even assuming they're actually implemented, which I don't think is a given. One of many things I really didn't miss about this site during my brief absence was the propagandising. |
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Post by thylacine on May 4, 2024 17:44:35 GMT
In less class than an upturned dustbin news. Losing Tory candidate in her losers whine made a number of allegations about Khan this was my favourite "He owes it to the families of those thousands of people who have lost lives to knife crime under his mayoralty." Where shall we start with that: London actually has a lower knife crime rate than most UK cities it's also lower than it was in 2015 when Spaffer was mayor. During Khan's 8 year mayoralty around 900 Londoners in total have sadly been the victims of homicide,around 500 were killed by sharp implements including knives. So Susan where the fuck are the other "thousands of victims" you assert ? Lying about the deaths of people , making up murder statistics. Classy stuff. * Sky news very kindly edited their report of her comments which they described as " pretty punchy" by replacing the words thousand that she said with hundreds which she didn't say , the guardian report said thousands which wasn't accurate either the rest of their transcript is verbatim. I've checked the speech and included a link around 28 minutes in if you want to take a look. www.youtube.com/live/uP4wFP0I6m0?si=uAxFDipqtlp68Pm2Maybe we'll miss her when she's gone ? |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 4, 2024 17:46:06 GMT
London was a bit of a rollercoaster, was quite nervous after some of the indications yesterday. Very relieved. Not sure I could have stood seeing Sunak celebrating at City Hall with the dreadful Hall.  |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 4, 2024 17:46:19 GMT
domjgThat indeed would have been a load of old alberts as my dad would have said.
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Post by peterbell on May 4, 2024 17:50:51 GMT
Maybe if they know the percentages for each counting area then Coventry looks like an outlier? There was a coment on either Sky or BBC (can't remember which) that there may be evidence of some of the Lab bundles containing some votes for an Indy |
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Post by barbara on May 4, 2024 17:51:34 GMT
If by some chance Labour did take West Midlands then the next Conservative party political broadcast is going to consist of Rishi Sunak wandering up and down Middlesborough high street muttering "Ben Houchen, Ben Houchen, Ben Houchen," in a low monotone. It's Middlesbrough, not Middlesborough and Sunak would surely be more likely to opt for a stroll around Teeside Airport, brought back into public ownership by the Tories and central to the Tees Valley freeport (remember that freeports are Sunak's baby) - which has had public money pumped into it by a Tory govt under a Tory mayor. I'm cynical enough to believe that Houchen will get a lot less money out of the Starmer administration. Teeside started electing Cons because it got bugger all out of Lab - I spent my teenage years there and I remember what it was like and how hard it was for the start-up my father was involved in (amazingly it survived). It's Teesside not Teeside. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 4, 2024 17:58:37 GMT
Let's celebrate! If we beat the Greens we will be hugely successful!
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Post by leftieliberal on May 4, 2024 17:59:31 GMT
London was a bit of a rollercoaster, was quite nervous after some of the indications yesterday. Very relieved. Not sure I could have stood seeing Sunak celebrating at City Hall with the dreadful Hall. They've given up using the wobbly blancmange by Tower Bridge (to save money). it's a dreary place in Docklands now close by Boris' cable car across the Thames. |
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Post by eor on May 4, 2024 18:02:19 GMT
Doesn't this sink Labour's chances?Labour’s West Midlands mayor candidate Richard Parker polled almost 14,000 votes more than Andy Street in the Birmingham City Council area.
Parker received 80,251 votes in the city, followed by Mr Street (66,296) and a strong showing of 40,923 votes for independent pro-Gaza candidate Akhmed Yakoob.
In Walsall, Street polled 24,735 votes, Parker 18,097 and Yakoob 8,451 I presume Labour won big in Coventry - hence the recount. Walsall vote is not surprising if you look at the local elections there. The Tories did very well and dominate the council. Street is up by 21k with Coventry and Sandwell still to be declared - Street was about 1k behind on 1st preferences in Coventry in 2021 and about 5k behind in Sandwell; based on the other results he'll have lost both this time, it's just a question of by how much. It seems the original answer to that was about 23-24k, but then there was something wonky enough to merit a full recount in Cov. Labour seem unworried tho, it'd be pretty surprising for a recount to make 2-3k difference. |
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Post by peterbell on May 4, 2024 18:04:41 GMT
According to Beth Rigby, with 2 out of 7 areas left to call, Coventry & Sandwell, Street is 4.5% ahead. However these 2 districts are expected to be fairly strongly Lab.
Edit beaten by EOR
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2024 18:06:17 GMT
Let's celebrate! If we beat the Greens we will be hugely successful! I watched that interview as well. It was the complete opposite of the honest one from the deputy editor of Conservative Home I mentioned earlier. Andrew Mitchell was terrible and just trotted out all the party lines about Sunak having a plan and Labour not having one, etc. And then politicians wonder why they are held in contempt. At least when Jess Phillips was interviewed she was honest enough to admit the Gaza issue (on which she was an early rebel) had hurt Labour. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 4, 2024 18:07:49 GMT
Is London's City Hall that dreadful? They've given up using the wobbly blancmange by Tower Bridge (to save money). it's a dreary place in Docklands now close by Boris' cable car across the Thames. |
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Post by eor on May 4, 2024 18:10:41 GMT
According to Beth Rigby, with 2 out of 7 areas left to call, Coventry & Sandwell, Street is 4.5% ahead. However these 2 districts are expected to be fairly strongly Lab. Edit beaten by EOR I had to win one of these eventually, tho usually I can justify coming second through having used more words  |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 4, 2024 18:14:27 GMT
pjw1961It shouldn't surprise you that I actually read (or at least skim read) the Brown review. I wasn't impressed. Lab plans don't address my concerns, even assuming they're actually implemented, which I don't think is a given. One of many things I really didn't miss about this site during my brief absence was the propagandising. "Lab plans don't address my concerns" - Ah that's an awful shame. Next! |
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Post by thylacine on May 4, 2024 18:15:42 GMT
I presume Labour won big in Coventry - hence the recount. Walsall vote is not surprising if you look at the local elections there. The Tories did very well and dominate the council. Street is up by 21k with Coventry and Sandwell still to be declared - Street was about 1k behind on 1st preferences in Coventry in 2021 and about 5k behind in Sandwell; based on the other results he'll have lost both this time, it's just a question of by how much. It seems the original answer to that was about 23-24k, but then there was something wonky enough to merit a full recount in Cov. Labour seem unworried tho, it'd be pretty surprising for a recount to make 2-3k difference. Is it possible boundary changes make them more strongly labour? |
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Post by jayblanc on May 4, 2024 18:19:23 GMT
Street is up by 21k with Coventry and Sandwell still to be declared - Street was about 1k behind on 1st preferences in Coventry in 2021 and about 5k behind in Sandwell; based on the other results he'll have lost both this time, it's just a question of by how much. It seems the original answer to that was about 23-24k, but then there was something wonky enough to merit a full recount in Cov. Labour seem unworried tho, it'd be pretty surprising for a recount to make 2-3k difference. Is it possible boundary changes make them more strongly labour? You'd assume the Conservatives wouldn't have demanded a recount unless it was close... But there have also been reports that spurious police complaints have been lodged against Labour candidates by Conservative party officials. Trying to muddy the waters and discredit the results? |
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Post by peterbell on May 4, 2024 18:21:10 GMT
Parker about 9000 votes ahead of street in Coventry. Sandwell still to call. Lab need to win it by more than 11,000
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Post by thylacine on May 4, 2024 18:21:34 GMT
Coventry reported as ready to declare!
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Post by alec on May 4, 2024 18:21:36 GMT
Coventry declaration immanent.
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Post by RAF on May 4, 2024 18:22:26 GMT
Lab need to win Sandwell by over 11k votes. Is that possible?
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Post by Old Southendian on May 4, 2024 18:25:16 GMT
Is it possible boundary changes make them more strongly labour? You'd assume the Conservatives wouldn't have demanded a recount unless it was close... But there have also been reports that spurious police complaints have been lodged against Labour candidates by Conservative party officials. Trying to muddy the waters and discredit the results? Yes, but that's the odd thing about this whole recount, as someone already pointed out above. It seems unlikely Coventry is that close, should be a good Labour majority*, but if the total count is close, then why is there no recount for all regions? 1k votes miscounted in a widely separated region is just as important as 1k votes in a close region, when you add them all up. I'm puzzled. It can only be because of some irregularity, or why just target Coventry? Someone who's been involved with these things might be able to enlighten us. I doubt BBC will.
* Well, without the independent anyway
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 4, 2024 18:27:59 GMT
athena
I briefly considered posting that your choice of the goddess of wisdom and her owl was highly appropriate - but didn't get round to it.
Having seen domjg's contemptuous dismissal of you, I decided to do it after all.
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