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Post by eor on May 4, 2024 18:28:01 GMT
Lab need to win Sandwell by over 11k votes. Is that possible? Yes, Labour were 5k ahead there last time so I'd expect them nearer to 15k than 10k this time based on the other regional results. |
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graham
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Post by graham on May 4, 2024 18:29:23 GMT
Lab need to win Sandwell by over 11k votes. Is that possible? Labour won Sandwell by 5,700 in 2021. |
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Post by alec on May 4, 2024 18:34:02 GMT
Think this could be tight. Lab haven't really added to their Coventry performance in terms of votes, but Street fell by around 8k. Sandwell is a little smaller than Coventry in terms of 2021 turnout, so Street would either need a fairly substantial fall or Lab to pull in a few thousand more votes than last time round.
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Post by Old Southendian on May 4, 2024 18:34:07 GMT
Lab need to win Sandwell by over 11k votes. Is that possible? Don't know, but they had a strong showing in the council elections. I guess there wasn't an alternative independent candidate in many wards there, so not an entirely reliable guide. |
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Post by alec on May 4, 2024 18:38:12 GMT
Actually, no - I was forgetting Lab were 5k ahead in 2021. They don't need to gain very many in Sandwell to win, so I think it's likely another Labour gain.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 4, 2024 18:41:43 GMT
"Parker needs a 4.95% swing in Sandwell to win the mayorality. His swings so far...
Birmingham: -0.87%
Solihull: 5.24%
Coventry: 6.05%
Walsall: 6.98%
Wolverhampton: 9.63%
Dudley 9.69%" (Election Maps UK)
(Always fun to add stuff about elections which have absolutely no significance for you - but are knife-edge)
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graham
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Post by graham on May 4, 2024 18:43:03 GMT
Why the delay from Sandwell? No recount there!
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Post by jib on May 4, 2024 18:44:00 GMT
Hopefully Labour pull through in Sandwell.
The resilience of the Tory vote illustrates that it's going to be a tight race and party discipline "on message" will be key for Labour.
Those projecting sub 100 seats at GE for the Tories will have learnt their lesson - they're difficult to beat and resilient, wily opponents.
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Post by athena on May 4, 2024 18:48:20 GMT
domjg Ever the optimist, I got quite excited when I heard about a big Lab report on devolution - at the time I was looking for reasons to vote Lab and I thought it might offer one - but I have to admit that most of my enthusiasm died when I realised that Brown was in charge - he certainly hoarded power when he was in no. 11 Downing Street. I've spent most of my life in parts of the UK that are very ill-served by Westminster governments, which is perhaps part of why I don't think it's unreasonable to want real decentralisation. It's not as if federalism were an esoteric form of government.
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Post by jib on May 4, 2024 18:48:42 GMT
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graham
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Post by graham on May 4, 2024 18:50:04 GMT
Labour now claiming victory apparently.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2024 18:50:09 GMT
Street is up by 21k with Coventry and Sandwell still to be declared - Street was about 1k behind on 1st preferences in Coventry in 2021 and about 5k behind in Sandwell; based on the other results he'll have lost both this time, it's just a question of by how much. It seems the original answer to that was about 23-24k, but then there was something wonky enough to merit a full recount in Cov. Labour seem unworried tho, it'd be pretty surprising for a recount to make 2-3k difference. Is it possible boundary changes make them more strongly labour? I believe these are reported on local authority areas, so no boundary changes. |
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Post by jib on May 4, 2024 18:50:15 GMT
I like this one too (the Tweet, not Trump)....
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 4, 2024 18:50:28 GMT
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Post by RAF on May 4, 2024 18:50:52 GMT
Imagine the day coming down to a photo finish in a racing town.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2024 18:52:08 GMT
athena
I briefly considered posting that your choice of the goddess of wisdom and her owl was highly appropriate - but didn't get round to it.
Having seen domjg 's contemptuous dismissal of you, I decided to do it after all. Not sure hireton would agree with you. |
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Post by athena on May 4, 2024 18:52:08 GMT
athena
I briefly considered posting that your choice of the goddess of wisdom and her owl was highly appropriate - but didn't get round to it.
Having seen domjg 's contemptuous dismissal of you, I decided to do it after all. Why thank you, kind sir! After I'd chosen my owl piccy I discovered that although there's actually an Athene genus of owls it doesn't include the barn owl. I stuck with the barn owl because they're probably my favourite and I occasionally see one flying home when I'm out on a morning bike ride, but if I ever fancy a change I will find a good picture of Athene noctua, which I've also seen (during the day, perched on a wall in deep shadow, looking grumpy and sleepy). |
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Post by thylacine on May 4, 2024 18:53:04 GMT
Will it be in time to make tomorrow's papers?
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Post by leftieliberal on May 4, 2024 18:53:36 GMT
Yes, but that's the odd thing about this whole recount, as someone already pointed out above. It seems unlikely Coventry is that close, should be a good Labour majority*, but if the total count is close, then why is there no recount for all regions? 1k votes miscounted in a widely separated region is just as important as 1k votes in a close region, when you add them all up. I'm puzzled. It can only be because of some irregularity, or why just target Coventry? Someone who's been involved with these things might be able to enlighten us. I doubt BBC will.
* Well, without the independent anyway
No, I don't understand it either. If the overall vote is close I would expect them to be as likely to find the extra votes in, say, Walsall as in Coventry, so I would expect them to ask for a recount in all the centres. The only thought I had was that the count they got themselves at the verification was sufficiently far away from the final result in Coventry that they went for a bundle check first, then found some mis-allocated bundles (e.g. one Labour vote on top of a pile of Tory votes) and asked for a full recount. But that's only a guess. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 4, 2024 18:55:54 GMT
Imagine the day coming down to a photo finish in a racing town. |
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Post by peterbell on May 4, 2024 18:56:54 GMT
Beth saying that she understands Lab have won
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2024 18:59:38 GMT
Yes, but that's the odd thing about this whole recount, as someone already pointed out above. It seems unlikely Coventry is that close, should be a good Labour majority*, but if the total count is close, then why is there no recount for all regions? 1k votes miscounted in a widely separated region is just as important as 1k votes in a close region, when you add them all up. I'm puzzled. It can only be because of some irregularity, or why just target Coventry? Someone who's been involved with these things might be able to enlighten us. I doubt BBC will.
* Well, without the independent anyway
No, I don't understand it either. If the overall vote is close I would expect them to be as likely to find the extra votes in, say, Walsall as in Coventry, so I would expect them to ask for a recount in all the centres. The only thought I had was that the count they got themselves at the verification was sufficiently far away from the final result in Coventry that they went for a bundle check first, then found some mis-allocated bundles (e.g. one Labour vote on top of a pile of Tory votes) and asked for a full recount. But that's only a guess. Don't forget each local authority does its own count and then the results are aggregated, so maybe some Tory teller at Coventry was unhappy with the conduct of that count. (It can happen - the Braintree DC electoral operation in the 2023 elections was so bad that the Conservative and Labour agents got together and put in a joint complaint about it). |
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Post by peterbell on May 4, 2024 18:59:54 GMT
Sky stating tha Street is defeated
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 4, 2024 19:01:18 GMT
And the next question, "Summer Election or Autumn Election?" is yet to be answered. Or will they risk everything on the hope of recovery and run out the clock for a Winter Election? I saw the case for an early election two or three years ago. The idea woud be to get it done before this entirely predictable collapse of party fortunes had happend, and therefore save a respectable number of seats. Plus leave all the problems for labour, because the longer con go on the more they will accrue to their account and the less credible that con could have turned it round but the new labour administration mucked it up. Thus the sooner to hope to get a new conservative administration, maybe after one horrible news labour term. However we are now getting to predictions of as few as 80 con MPs after the next election, and many are already retiring anyway, so the majority must know they will no longer have a job as MP after that next election. So their choice is retire now or in 6 months, and its probably more confortable for them to retire at the last possible date. Its about having six months extra pay, pension and perks. And if you are simply walking away from politics, thats 6 months in which the formal duties of an MP are pretty light and you can be looking for your next job. |
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Post by thylacine on May 4, 2024 19:01:55 GMT
Wow, bloody wow. That was actually pretty exciting.
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Post by thylacine on May 4, 2024 19:06:06 GMT
Wonder if there's a dirty great helicopter doing a massive u turn above Birmingham right now ?
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Post by peterbell on May 4, 2024 19:06:18 GMT
Big group of Lab supporters in the hall but no sign of the Tories. Assuming Sky are right and Lab have won, are the Tories discussing further recounts.
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Post by peterbell on May 4, 2024 19:08:36 GMT
Sky quoting a Lab scource that the win is 0.2%
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Post by peterbell on May 4, 2024 19:09:38 GMT
Sam Coates stating that there has been a roar of approval in Lab HQ
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steve
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Post by steve on May 4, 2024 19:10:21 GMT
"Labour defeats Andy Street in West Midlands mayoral race, Sky News understands
Labour's Richard Parker has defeated Tory incumbent Andy Street in the West Midlands, Sky News understands.
It means Mr Street will be denied a third term in the role in a shock result.
Sky's political editor Beth Rigby, who is in Birmingham, said it will be seen as the "biggest upset in this set of elections".
She says this has "gone right down to the wire", including with a recount in Coventry.
We are still waiting for one final area to declare. "
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