pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2024 15:54:06 GMT
Colin will be sorry to miss out on all our celebrations. I think he knew the game was up. Amazing to think that five years ago Johnson was assumed to be at least a two term Prime Minister. All his own fault that he fucked it all up so badly. Except with Johnson he was always likely to at some point. Like other populists such as Farage and Galloway - or Trump in the US - he likes campaigning but doesn't have the attention span for governing. |
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Post by peterbell on May 4, 2024 15:57:19 GMT
Sophie Ridge reporting that a full recount has been ordered for Coventry in W Midlands. Evidently Con are very concerned with the figures.
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Post by peterbell on May 4, 2024 15:59:26 GMT
So no West Midlands result for a couple of hours. Not looking good for Street
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2024 15:59:54 GMT
Just watched Henry Hill of Conservative Home interviewed on the BBC. A Tory but not a politician, so felt no need to spin which made it interesting. He said that the elections were an unmitigated disaster and no one could pretend otherwise. He particularly lamented London as he thought Khan is a beatable candidate but the Tory candidate selection was a complete shambles and "CCHQ has questions to answer". Hill added that one of the main reasons why Sunak is safe as leader is that most Conservative MPs have given up and accepted they will get walloped at the GE.
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2024 16:02:49 GMT
I think he knew the game was up. Amazing to think that five years ago Johnson was assumed to be at least a two term Prime Minister. All his own fault that he fucked it all up so badly. Except with Johnson he was always likely to at some point. Like other populists such as Farage and Galloway - or Trump in the US - he likes campaigning but doesn't have the attention span for governing. He could have simply delegated and been the popular figurehead. His cabinet choices were weird. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 4, 2024 16:05:59 GMT
Interesting result in Herts Police commissioner election.
While the Tories retained the post their vote share fell by 12% they were just 10% ahead of the Lib. dems the Labour vote was only up 2% On 2021 and they remained in third
The clincher for The Tories was the presence of a green candidate, none stood in 2021.
They won 10.5%!
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2024 16:06:12 GMT
Except with Johnson he was always likely to at some point. Like other populists such as Farage and Galloway - or Trump in the US - he likes campaigning but doesn't have the attention span for governing. He could have simply delegated and been the popular figurehead. His cabinet choices were weird. That was exactly what he did as London mayor and it did more or less work, but there he chose competent people. It also allowed time for "IT lessons" in the afternoons with Jennifer Arcuri, which was no doubt a bonus. |
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shevii
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Post by shevii on May 4, 2024 16:07:41 GMT
steveLD and Greens and Reform both roughly doubled their vote on constituency compared to mayor but Merton is the only one to so far declare the PR section and almost no difference to constituency section which is a bit odd. London elects is best site for full results.
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Post by alec on May 4, 2024 16:07:44 GMT
pjw1961 - "Hill added that one of the main reasons why Sunak is safe as leader is that most Conservative MPs have given up and accepted they will get walloped at the GE." My thoughts entirely. The Conservatives are done, and done for a generation. Whoever takes over now is a caretaker, nothing more than that, and given the scale of the likely defeat there would need to be a sacrifice made the day after the election, so who wants to play that role.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on May 4, 2024 16:11:39 GMT
I miss Trev, not that I understood a word he wrote. I also miss TOH and Pass The Rock. It's quite fun thinking on what their different reactions would''ve been to this weekend.
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shevii
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Post by shevii on May 4, 2024 16:14:34 GMT
Bit weird just wanting a recount for Coventry? Unless they had so much fun with VAR they want to do it all over again.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 4, 2024 16:17:48 GMT
Khan majority
276000
Khan received a personal vote The same size as the total SNP voted in 2019
Count Bin Face beat Britain First.
Refuk share 3%
The Britain First candidate showed far less dignity than an upturned dustbin.
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Post by graham on May 4, 2024 16:22:22 GMT
Bit weird just wanting a recount for Coventry? Unless they had so much fun with VAR they want to do it all over again. Unless a Bundle Recount revealed an error there, it is not clear why a full recount would be ordered for Coventry but not the other boroughs. Were it to change the overall result Labour would surely demand a full recount across the West Midlands constituency. |
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patrickbrian
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Post by patrickbrian on May 4, 2024 16:27:58 GMT
Thanks for all the commentary and coverage here. many gems. But the absence of ROC comment - with the stalwart exception of Mercian - is sad. Trevor could be interesting on actual polls, and I miss Colin a lot. I get bored reading comments from people I agree with.
I almost hope Street wins. He was a decent mayor by all accounts, and we need occasionally to be reminded that not all Tories are like the present weird incompetents (Mostly!)
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Post by peterbell on May 4, 2024 16:41:53 GMT
Beth Rigby reporting that Parker (lab) leads Street by 14,000 votes in Birmingham which is by far the biggest "constituency" in the West Midlands Mayoral area,
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 4, 2024 16:45:07 GMT
FoN/Electoral Calculus MRP poll reported in the Mirror
www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/bombshell-mega-poll-predicts-tories-32121361
Party VI Seats Diff (Scot seats)
Lab 42% 452 +249 (13)
Con 22% 80 -285 ( 0)
LD 11% 53 + 42 ( 4)
SNP 4% 40 - 8 (40)
REFUK 10% 0 0 ( 0)
Green 7% 2 + 1 ( 0)
As with all MRP polls I am very dubious about the reliability of allocating a "winner" in a marginal seat!
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Post by graham on May 4, 2024 16:45:54 GMT
Beth Rigby reporting that Parker (lab) leads Street by 14,000 votes in Birmingham which is by far the biggest "constituency" in the West Midlands Mayoral area, That is actually rather a poor result for Labour there. In 2021 Labour was ahead in Birmingham by 22,700. Edit - Explained by Yakoob polling almost 43.000 - circa 20% there.
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Post by thylacine on May 4, 2024 16:46:27 GMT
Bit weird just wanting a recount for Coventry? Unless they had so much fun with VAR they want to do it all over again. Unless a Bundle Recount revealed an error there, it is not clear why a full recount would be ordered for Coventry but not the other boroughs. Were it to change the overall result Labour would surely demand a full recount across the West Midlands constituency. In my minds eye I picture an increasingly desperate Sunak directly in Street's ear demanding he call for recount after recount . |
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Post by alec on May 4, 2024 16:51:09 GMT
Sounds like a seriously narky speech from defeated candidate Hall in London. Not just useless, but graceless too. Sums up modern Conservatism.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 4, 2024 16:54:10 GMT
So on the notion that LD and Green voters had adjusted to FPTP, I'm really not sure if that is the case. In 21, LD was 4.4% (candidate had stepped down) Green 7.8%, this year both got 5.8%. Just watched the Sutton and Croydon assembly result, little sign of ABT tactical voting.
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Post by jayblanc on May 4, 2024 16:55:39 GMT
So... My quick take aways from this.
Curtis says that this is all consistent with the 20 point lead polling. This prompts suspicion in BMG, Savanta (nee ComRes) and Opinium. In particular it suggest Opinium's methodology change seem to have led them in the wrong direction.
Labour look to be underperforming national average in traditionally Labour areas, but still more than enough to reclaim the Red Wall. While they are overperforming in traditionally Conservative areas, and making large gains.
Labour should probably seek to get muslim support messaging out there to mute protest votes. (And on a personal and moral note, I think it's now past time for Labour to condemn attacks on Civilians and call for immediate cease-fire and independent investigations.) But, it would not prevent them from winning the next election, merely prevent them from forcing the Conservatives into third place.
Conservatives are still treading water just above the line where they are pushed into third place. The internal fighting seems to have gone quiet, but for how long?
And the next question, "Summer Election or Autumn Election?" is yet to be answered. Or will they risk everything on the hope of recovery and run out the clock for a Winter Election?
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Post by leftieliberal on May 4, 2024 16:55:53 GMT
Gareth Roberts wins the London South West Constituency for the Lib Dems, the first Lib Dem Assembly constituency win ever! 16,000 is a decent majority too.
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Post by athena on May 4, 2024 16:57:53 GMT
Interesting that RefUK are being talked up in the media - presumably off the back of the Blackpool South result. However, their local election performance was pathetic. To date with 102 councils reported they have won two councillors. Galloway's Worker's Party has won twice as many. RefUK clearly have little organisation or capacity to campaign at local level. They seem like simply a creation of the national media's obsession with Farage. Yes, UKIP built up over about 20 years to their peak around 2010-2015. They did have a national organisation, and local branches. I remember we got over 70 turn up for one meeting. Reform on the other hand, though attracting some ex-UKIP people seem to have no such organisation. They are much more centrally directed. Farage famously hated the UKIP governing committee (I can't remember what it was called). There is no local branch of Reform near here that I'm aware of or indeed if any exist at all. Having achieved Brexit, most UKIP voters went back to previous allegiances (including WNV), though a rump still exists I believe. I do sometimes wonder if Reform is just a vehicle to get Farage and Tice into prominent positions in the Tory party. i.e. If Reform get close to Tories in VI (which they now are), and appear to be taking more votes from Tories than others will he do a deal in exchange for a safe seat (if there is one) or a peerage? BTW, though I have been a UKIP candidate and think that Farage was a good campaigner I think he'd be terrible in any position of power. There seems to be an assumption that Ref won't be able to realise the level of support indicated by VI polls due to lack of organisation on the ground, but I'm wondering how true that is. Ten years ago the Green party used to (and still does in many areas where it does little or no campaigning) achieve a vote share of c. 5%( +/-2) with paper candidates. It's now much easier to run a modestly effective centralised, digital-only campaign, so I'd expect the ceiling for candidates with no ground operation to be quite a lot higher - I don't know enough to put a figure on it. I don't think it's possible to win an FPTP election without a ground campaign - it would be too easy for competitors to paint you as uncommitted or unserious - but I think it should easily be possible to get over 10%, possibly much more - certainly enough votes to affect the outcome in a great many seats. Obviously a digital-only campaign is more effective if your party qualifies for inclusion in broadcast debates, a party political broadcast and a national mailshot - I don't know what the criteria are, so I have no idea whether Ref will. Ditto whether it has the financial and intellectual resources to run an effective online campaign. I'm guessing not, on the basis that if it had, it would have made sense to campaign properly for at least some of the mayoralties. I can't see Sunak offering Farage a peerage and I've always assumed Farage isn't interested in the hard work of being a constituency MP or even a government minister, so I'm not convinced there's a Tory-Ref deal to be done. It would also be a lot harder than in 2019 to sell such a deal to Ref voters, who are disillusioned with the Tories and their leader, in contrast to Brexit Party-inclined voters, who had considerable common ground with Johnson's 'Get Brexit Done' Tories. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2024 17:02:41 GMT
Beth Rigby reporting that Parker (lab) leads Street by 14,000 votes in Birmingham which is by far the biggest "constituency" in the West Midlands Mayoral area, That is actually rather a poor result for Labour there. In 2021 Labour was ahead in Birmingham by 22,700. Edit - Explained by Yakoob polling almost 43.000 - circa 20% there.
They gave the Birmingham vote on the BBC. In round terms it was Labour 80,000, Conservative 66,000, Yakoob 42,000 - so the Gaza effect is there to be seen. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2024 17:05:15 GMT
So... My quick take aways from this. Curtis says that this is all consistent with the 20 point lead polling. This prompts suspicion in BMG, Savanta (nee ComRes) and Opinium. In particular it suggest Opinium's methodology change seem to have led them in the wrong direction. Labour look to be underperforming national average in traditionally Labour areas, but still more than enough to reclaim the Red Wall. While they are overperforming in traditionally Conservative areas, and making large gains. Labour should probably seek to get muslim support messaging out there to mute protest votes. (And on a personal and moral note, I think it's now past time for Labour to condemn attacks on Civilians and call for immediate cease-fire and independent investigations.) But, it would not prevent them from winning the next election, merely prevent them from forcing the Conservatives into third place. Conservatives are still treading water just above the line where they are pushed into third place. The internal fighting seems to have gone quiet, but for how long? And the next question, "Summer Election or Autumn Election?" is yet to be answered. Or will they risk everything on the hope of recovery and run out the clock for a Winter Election? Very fair. Just to note that the Labour position is now for an immediate cease-fire - took too long to get there of course. |
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shevii
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Post by shevii on May 4, 2024 17:10:25 GMT
Maybe if they know the percentages for each counting area then Coventry looks like an outlier?
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Post by athena on May 4, 2024 17:13:29 GMT
Media coverage of the constitutional aspect of mayoralties is woeful.
I've yet to hear anyone get beyond 'Aren't mayors great, they can build a strong personal profile as a champion for their area and the success of nominally Con incumbents shows that mayors who deliver for their area are rewarded.' No mention of what a dog's breakfast they are - different powers, different per capita budgets, different relationships with other tiers of local govt, not to mention that not every region has a mayor and they're not all as high profile as Khan, Burnham and Street. (Despite being fairly interested in politics and living in South Yorkshire I had no idea that the mayoralty had been re-titled and what used to be a non-job with no/minimal power and no budget is now a real job, held by Coppard. I still don't have a clue what he actually does, other than that some of it is transport stuff and that he's been re-elected early because the PCC responsibilities are being rolled into the mayoralty.)
No-one has pointed out that the mayors have to go cap in hand to the Treasury for money, thus allowing central government to influence mayoral policy and, almost inevitably, favour mayoralties of the same political hue.
I've said before that I favour a federal UK, composed of English regions, Scotland and Wales, but the hotchpotch of mayoralties in England is not a good step towards decentralisation. It's not quite divide and rule, but it's a sleight of hand that leaves real power in the hands of Downing St. Real decentralisation would involve distributing funding from the central govt according to something like the Barnett formula or the Australian principle of horizontal fiscal equalisation (roughly speaking that every state should be able to provide the same standard of services and associated infrastructure). Of course without a codified constitution there will never be more than the accumulation of years of precedent to stop a Westminster government unpicking devolution or the financial settlements with devolved administrations.
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Post by athena on May 4, 2024 17:20:00 GMT
Looks like I might have been right about lib dems lending Khan their vote It's a shame it has to be this way. I would much rather people voted for the party closest to their views, but that's FPTP for you. I've come to the conclusion that neither Lab nor Con will support electoral reform until they perceive that FPTP is costing them opportunities to govern, so as long as voters continue to vote ABC or ABL they'll be stuck with FPTP. In fact it's even worse - voters who allow themselves to be herded into the Lab or Con camp by threats about how bad the other side is simply reassure the major party they've supported that it doesn't need to accommodate their views.
Voters who want Lab to take the climate and biodiversity crises seriously shouldn't vote Lab when it's moving in the opposite direction (there's so little real difference* between the major parties on climate that even if that were to result in 5 more years of Tory govt it would still be the right choice). *Implausible promises to meet ambitious targets do not amount to credible policy, particularly when your targets ignore the embedded carbon associated with imports. |
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Post by James E on May 4, 2024 17:23:10 GMT
FoN/Electoral Calculus MRP poll reported in the Mirror
www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/bombshell-mega-poll-predicts-tories-32121361
Party VI Seats Diff (Scot seats)
Lab 42% 452 +249 (13)
Con 22% 80 -285 ( 0)
LD 11% 53 + 42 ( 4)
SNP 4% 40 - 8 (40)
REFUK 10% 0 0 ( 0)
Green 7% 2 + 1 ( 0)
As with all MRP polls I am very dubious about the reliability of allocating a "winner" in a marginal seat! This poll is 3 months old. The report is dated 14 Feb and the fieldwork was 24Jan-12 Feb. The polls have shifted a bit since then, so the Conservatives are probably not faring as well as that now. |
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Post by athena on May 4, 2024 17:23:49 GMT
If by some chance Labour did take West Midlands then the next Conservative party political broadcast is going to consist of Rishi Sunak wandering up and down Middlesborough high street muttering "Ben Houchen, Ben Houchen, Ben Houchen," in a low monotone. It's Middlesbrough, not Middlesborough and Sunak would surely be more likely to opt for a stroll around Teesside Airport, brought back into public ownership by the Tories and central to the Tees Valley freeport (remember that freeports are Sunak's baby) - which has had public money pumped into it by a Tory govt under a Tory mayor. I'm cynical enough to believe that Houchen will get a lot less money out of the Starmer administration. Teesside started electing Cons because it got bugger all out of Lab - I spent my teenage years there and I remember what it was like and how hard it was for the start-up my father was involved in (amazingly it survived). |
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