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Post by alec on May 4, 2024 12:43:30 GMT
leftieliberal - "While I still expect Sadiq Khan to win the London Mayoralty again, an interesting tweet from someone who calls themselves Marwan" Doesn't look like it's having the expected effect. In both the first two areas Khan's vote is up while turnout is down.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 4, 2024 12:44:16 GMT
leftieliberalA slight problem with this analysis. While total votes cast might be down they are in the two areas already declared in both Khan's vote has gone up. If anything it looks like Tories staying at home.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 4, 2024 12:45:01 GMT
alecKindly don't write the same thing as I'm writing, only quicker😁
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2024 12:47:11 GMT
While I still expect Sadiq Khan to win the London Mayoralty again, an interesting tweet from someone who calls themselves Marwan It is interesting but fortunately the areas that have reported to date have shown a swing to Labour rather than the Conservatives compared to 2021. Goes back to the idea that had the Tories picked a better candidate than Hall they could have won this. |
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Post by alec on May 4, 2024 12:49:17 GMT
Same story in West Central. Tory vote down by 10K compared to last time, Khan up 3K
The outer boroughs will need something very unexpected to change the course.
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Post by alec on May 4, 2024 12:50:06 GMT
Also - West Central turnout well down this time. Cons actually won here last time out, now it's +11,000 for Khan.
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Post by James E on May 4, 2024 12:50:50 GMT
Khan wins West Central, where he failed to win in 2021.
In 2024:
Sadiq Khan: 54,481
Susan Hall: 43,405
In 2021 (first preferences):
Sadiq Khan: 51,508
Shaun Bailey 53,713
All three areas to declare so far show around a 5% swing to Labour. If that was replicated all over London, he would win by around 15%.
.....TO ADD
North East (Hackney, Islington, Waltham Forest):
Sadiq Khan – 127,455
Susan Hall – 34,099
In 2021, Khan won the first preference vote here by 111K to 44K. Swing to Labour of about 7% here.
...TO ADD (2)
I make it around a 3% swing to Labour in the South-West Constituency, which is Outer London. The average Con to Lab swing is still 5% (and not varying much by area) from these early results.
...TO ADD (3)
Enfield & Haringey
Another comfortable win for Khan, and another 4-5% swing to him.
Very consistent results so far, and not a huge difference between the pro-Labour swings in Inner and Outer London (though they do seem smaller in the latter).
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Post by alec on May 4, 2024 12:56:06 GMT
Big win for Khan in North East. Lab now saying they've won London, which seems pretty obvious.
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Post by graham on May 4, 2024 13:02:47 GMT
Relying on your definition would imply that yesterday is a bygone age. If it was yesterday I would have said yesterday, but considering 2005 was very nearly 20 years ago, I used bygone age. 2005 is 'a few years ago'. 1905 would be 'a bygone age.' |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 4, 2024 13:04:24 GMT
Breaking BBC
London won by Khan
South West London just declared Khan wins by 9000, the Tories won this area last time around.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2024 13:05:39 GMT
We need a separate "bygone age"' thread to sort this out.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2024 13:06:16 GMT
If it was yesterday I would have said yesterday, but considering 2005 was very nearly 20 years ago, I used bygone age. 2005 is 'a few years ago'. 1905 would be 'a bygone age.' Careful, I'm sure Mercian remembers 1905 as if were yesterday  |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2024 13:07:07 GMT
Breaking BBC London won by Khan South West London just declared Khan wins by 9000, the Tories won this area last time around. And ... relax ... |
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Post by alec on May 4, 2024 13:07:45 GMT
Khan wins SW, which includes Richmond & Twickenham. That sounds unexpected?
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steve
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Post by steve on May 4, 2024 13:07:48 GMT
pjw1961Remember we have someone here who only remembers May 2010 to May 2015,.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 4, 2024 13:08:07 GMT
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Post by alec on May 4, 2024 13:08:48 GMT
If London hasn't been substantially affected by anti Gaza policy voting, which at first glance appears to be the case, that might suggest West Mids is back in play?
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steve
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Post by steve on May 4, 2024 13:10:37 GMT
Swing from Tory to Labour in London mayoral election 5%
With approaching a million votes counted the refukers on less than 30,000 ,Londoners telling them to refuk off in no uncertain terms.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2024 13:11:59 GMT
If London hasn't been substantially affected by anti Gaza policy voting, which at first glance appears to be the case, that might suggest West Mids is back in play? Sadiq Khan being himself a Muslim and having taken a much more carefully balanced line in his diverse city than Starmer did at the start of the Gaza scenario may have helped defuse that issue somewhat for him. |
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Post by EmCat on May 4, 2024 13:16:26 GMT
I think I read that Cons are defending just under 1,000 seats overall, and so with just under half the councils declared, their losses of 190 suggest a very bad night indeed. At this rate they won't be far short of a 50% seat loss. That's really catastrophic in a GE year. I grabbed a copy of the image from the BBC website this morning, before it disappeared off the main page of live updates, showing how many seats each parry was defending ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2024/5/2/f9f38592-8b62-427b-bb76-12d91e0677d8.pnglinkCon 989
Lab 973
LD 418
Ind / other 135
Grn 107
Residents' Associations 37
With the last few results to come in, the real nail biter will be whether LibDem can hold onto second place Current BBC results: LD 515 (up 102) Con 508 (down 467) By my reckoning, LD have 5 seats they are defending still to declare (418 defending less (515 current less 102 additions)) Con have 14 they are defending (989 defending less (508 current and 467 losses) A couple of LD shock losses, and a couple of surprising Con holds, and it could be LD just pipped into 3rd place. Realistically, it may be more like Con 515 and LD 522 in the end. |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 4, 2024 13:16:42 GMT
Khan wins West Central, where he failed to win in 2021. In 2024: Sadiq Khan: 54,481 Susan Hall: 43,405 In 2021 (first preferences): Sadiq Khan: 51,508 Shaun Bailey 53,713 All three areas to declare so far show around a 5% swing to Labour. If that was replicated all over London, he would win by around 15%. .....TO ADD North East (Hackney, Islington, Waltham Forest): Sadiq Khan – 127,455 Susan Hall – 34,099 In 2021, Khan won the first preference vote here by 111K to 44K. Swing to Labour of about 7% here. Also Lib Dem Rob Blackie 25,579 to the Greens Zoe Garbett 10,132 in London South West. The polling for London as a whole before the election had them level-pegging for third place, so this balances the Green strength in North East London. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 4, 2024 13:20:22 GMT
One for our resident obsessive to consider.
These will be the first set of local elections ever where my party has finished ahead of the Tories in number of seats.
Next time before engaging gob before brain and suggesting that a vote for the lib dems is a vote for the Tories.
Look at the Results😁😁😁😁😁
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Post by johntel on May 4, 2024 13:21:01 GMT
2005 is 'a few years ago'. 1905 would be 'a bygone age.' Careful, I'm sure Mercian remembers 1905 as if were yesterday As a monarchist I'm sure he does. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 4, 2024 13:31:34 GMT
Khan result in Enfield area announced Khan 40,000 ahead of Hall.
He can't be caught now.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 4, 2024 13:33:16 GMT
Well done Mayor Khan.
The most successful directly elected politician in UK history.
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Post by RAF on May 4, 2024 13:36:43 GMT
My constituency (Bromley and Bexley) doing its best to give Susan Hall hope.
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Post by James E on May 4, 2024 13:38:35 GMT
Khan wins SW, which includes Richmond & Twickenham. That sounds unexpected? He was only just behind there in 2021 by 77,000 to 74,000 votes - and won by 5,000 votes after second preferences were added. The result here is a 3% swing from Con to Lab, so on the low side. The Bromley and Bexley result is the first we have had with a swing from Lab to Con - but its very small (less than 1%). However, the overall average swing must still be around 3-4% Con to Lab. John Curtice has made a forecast based on the first 6 results of Khan winning by a 10% margin (43 to 33). That would be a slightly lower overall swing of 2.5%. [TO ADD 15:40 - a Con to Lab swing of 1.2% in Brent & Harrow, so another case of a smaller swing in Outer London] |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 4, 2024 13:47:48 GMT
Breaking BBC London won by Khan South West London just declared Khan wins by 9000, the Tories won this area last time around. |
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Post by RAF on May 4, 2024 13:49:27 GMT
Khan wins SW, which includes Richmond & Twickenham. That sounds unexpected? He was only just behind there in 2021 by 77,000 to 74,000 votes - and won by 5,000 votes after second preferences were added. The result here is a 3% swing from Con to Lab, so on the low side. The Bromley and Bexley result is the first we have had with a swing from Lab to Con - it's about 4%. However, the overall average swing must still be around 3-4% Con to Lab. John Curtice has made a forecast based on the first 6 results of Khan winning by a 10% margin (43 to 33). That would be a slightly lower swing of 2.5%. If Curtice is right (and I think he will be) YouGov would have matched their polling error in 2021, almost exactly. |
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2024 13:53:18 GMT
With the last few results to come in, the real nail biter will be whether LibDem can hold onto second place Current BBC results: LD 515 (up 102) Con 508 (down 467) By my reckoning, LD have 5 seats they are defending still to declare (418 defending less (515 current less 102 additions)) Con have 14 they are defending (989 defending less (508 current and 467 losses) A couple of LD shock losses, and a couple of surprising Con holds, and it could be LD just pipped into 3rd place. Realistically, it may be more like Con 515 and LD 522 in the end. Sir John on the BBC has just confirmed your analysis, EmCat. LDEM have come second overall. |
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