steve
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Post by steve on May 4, 2024 8:54:43 GMT
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 4, 2024 9:21:23 GMT
In short they split the Tory vote in seats they couldn’t win. And that is the risk both con and indeed lab fear. Where con cannot win, their voters will vote for someone they like rather than the only viable contender they can endure. Similarly where lab are certain to win, their voters may switch to the random pary they prefer. And that way small parties stand a chance to get a toehold in mainstream politics. You could argue this accounted for clegmania back in 1997. |
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Post by RAF on May 4, 2024 9:22:14 GMT
@danny
My anecdotal evidence is that many Muslims will still vote for Khan, but will vote Green in the Assembly votes. Their biggest gripe is with how Starner is directing the Party nationally on the issue.
There has also been some nonsense on social media about mosques advising Muslims not to vote. That simply isn't true.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on May 4, 2024 9:26:19 GMT
Now that MP's can be 'recalled' by constituents, isn't it time that governments can be too?
Asking for a friend.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2024 9:30:08 GMT
I recall you belittling the rather extraordinary Labour capture of Tamworth last year, won on an almost historic swing, by arguing that it was in effect a 5% swing to the Tories compared to a previous contest in the town in some bygone political and electoral era. I see you're trying this trick again with some of the local council results. On that subject, there were 10 council seats up in Tamworth on Thursday, all Conservative held. Labour took 9 of them and gained control of the Council from NOC. It was Tory controlled as recently as 2022. That tends to support the idea that the parliamentary by-election represented more than a protest but a genuine change of political opinion large enough to think it can be held in a GE. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 4, 2024 9:31:37 GMT
Its funny how tory policy catches up with you.
Hastings is in a happy position in terms of water supply, that it has its own reservoir built as part of town expansion in the 60s. This means it often does not have water shortages in summer when most of the rest of the SE does. But it has hit the national news that 30,000 homes are now without water because of a burst pipe carrying that water from the reservoir to Hastings.
Only, it seems this isnt simply bad luck and a faulty pipe. The workers first had to fell a forest which had grown up around the pipe to get near it. And now it seems the problem is more serious than first thought, because those trees allowed to grow for 50 years have caused further damage around the pipeline. Its a failure of maintenance to keep them in check. And so privatisation with its inevitable disinvestment led to maintenance cutback and the problem today. We got our present from Thatcher.
(Though obviously, sewage on the beaches seems to be getting more frequent too)
And this is just one example of why voters have turned against conservatives. A policy of slashing spending to minimise taxes simply is untenable in a modern society. And another of breaking links with your most important trading partner is utterly insane. Not that they sold it in those terms, but thats what people are starting to realise. Its all very reminiscent of the national feeling in 1997. Tory policies are simply unsustainable in the long term, and can only ever work if they play tweedledum and tweedle dee alternating with a party which fixes the damage so they campaign on redoing it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2024 9:34:13 GMT
In short they split the Tory vote in seats they couldn’t win. And that is the risk both con and indeed lab fear. Where con cannot win, their voters will vote for someone they like rather than the only viable contender they can endure. Similarly where lab are certain to win, their voters may switch to the random pary they prefer. And that way small parties stand a chance to get a toehold in mainstream politics. You could argue this accounted for clegmania back in 1997.Not sure about that, not least because he didn't become an MP until 2005. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 4, 2024 9:36:00 GMT
London count underway.
Truly bizarre interview on Sky who appear to have gone full Tory tonto, speaking to Keir Starmer and basically saying you didn't win every seat are you disappointed.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 4, 2024 9:38:01 GMT
And that is the risk both con and indeed lab fear. Where con cannot win, their voters will vote for someone they like rather than the only viable contender they can endure. Similarly where lab are certain to win, their voters may switch to the random pary they prefer. And that way small parties stand a chance to get a toehold in mainstream politics. You could argue this accounted for clegmania back in 1997.Not sure about that, not least because he didn't become an MP until 2005. sorry, forget who was leader then, but there was a surprise surge in lib support. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 4, 2024 9:38:28 GMT
Danny
Not a lot of Clegmania in 1997 as he didn't become an mp until 2005 or party leader until 2007.
While lib dem seat count went up 28 in 1997 their vote share actually fell by 1%.
That's fptp and an unpopular government for you.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2024 9:42:10 GMT
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 4, 2024 10:00:45 GMT
May 4th be with you!
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Post by RAF on May 4, 2024 10:17:08 GMT
Or as Count Binface tweeted earlier: "Mayor the Fourth Be With You." |
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Post by graham on May 4, 2024 10:28:23 GMT
I have not suggested otherwise - and voted Labour myself yesterday for the PCC! Believe it or not - I am capable of being perfectly objective psephologically and have never belonged to the School of Wishful Thinking. I speak as I find it - Others are free to disagree. I am always happy to bow down before the greater psephological insight of other commentators - but never inclined to accept things at face value. I haven't a problem with that at all and value opinion and psephological expertise that challenges received wisdom and lazy assumptions, and you often provide such perspectives, but where it gets a little silly, certainly for me anyway, is where this mutates into distortion and statistical cherry picking to support esoteric hobby horses. I recall you belittling the rather extraordinary Labour capture of Tamworth last year, won on an almost historic swing, by arguing that it was in effect a 5% swing to the Tories compared to a previous contest in the town in some bygone political and electoral era. I see you're trying this trick again with some of the local council results. I suspect your well trailed antipathy to Starmer is leading you down these rabbit holes whereby you're finding it very difficult to accept Labour's recent electoral success under his leadership and this is sending you on increasingly ludicrous psephological wild goose chases to either disprove or devalue it. That's not psephology, it's rather silly axe grinding. You can think what you like , but I assure you I am perfectly capable of setting side my opinion of Starmer et al when it comes to analysing election results and statistics. I also refer you to comments I made yesterday re-Labour's performance in the Norfolk PCC election and its strong result in South Cambridgeshire - and I have also expressed very strong doubts re-likely Green success at Bristol Central in the GE. As for my comments re- Tamworth a few months ago , I simply presented the psephological historical facts - facts likely not to be known to even most political anoraks. Delving deep into historical electoral data can be useful and informative for those genuinely interested - and makes it much easier to see through the 'spin' applied by party apparatchiks and the ignorance of most political commentators who have little understanding of psephology. As for the 2005 GE being 'a bygone age' - that is an interesting view.
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Post by graham on May 4, 2024 10:34:45 GMT
I recall you belittling the rather extraordinary Labour capture of Tamworth last year, won on an almost historic swing, by arguing that it was in effect a 5% swing to the Tories compared to a previous contest in the town in some bygone political and electoral era. I see you're trying this trick again with some of the local council results. On that subject, there were 10 council seats up in Tamworth on Thursday, all Conservative held. Labour took 9 on them and gained control of the Council from NOC. It was Tory controlled as recently as 2022. That tends to support the idea that the parliamentary by-election represented more than a protest but a genuine change of political opinion large enough to think it can be held in a GE. That is encouraging for labour. I never denied that the Tamworth by election result was a good performance by Labour - but simply pointed out that the performance still fell short of the 2005 GE result - and even more so re- the results achieved there in 2001 and 1997. |
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Post by EmCat on May 4, 2024 10:56:55 GMT
The tagline for the video is quite good too: "It’s the political equivalent of Batman vs Superman. With similar production values and a slightly better plot." And (having just checked IMDB) about 2h30minutes shorter as well  |
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Post by graham on May 4, 2024 11:26:16 GMT
Some rumours now circulating at West Midlands count that Labour may have pulled it off after all.
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Post by RAF on May 4, 2024 11:40:09 GMT
Early results in London Mayor contest show Khan doing substantially better than in 2021.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 4, 2024 11:40:24 GMT
First two of 14 London areas reporting.
Sadly Khan showing a wafer thin 25% lead😂
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2024 11:42:44 GMT
As for the 2005 GE being 'a bygone age' - that is an interesting view. 2005 is ancient history in political terms. Canterbury was safe Tory. Heck, even in 2015 Canterbury was safe Tory!
Times change, demographics shift, opinions and priorities change, people die... I'm sure the Tory base in the red wall will be larger in GE2024 than it was in 1997, despite seat tallies being zero or close to zero in both cases. Likewise, the Labour base in traditionally rock-solid Tory places is higher than it once was.
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Post by RAF on May 4, 2024 11:44:08 GMT
First two of 14 London areas reporting. Sadly Khan showing a wafer thin 25% lead😂 Those being Greenwich and Lewisham; and Merton and Wandsworth. The latter is quite revealing: 2024 Sadiq Khan: 84,725 Susan Hall: 50,976 2021 (1st Prefs) Sadiq Khan: 76,403 Shaun Bailey 59,460 |
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Post by graham on May 4, 2024 11:47:24 GMT
As for the 2005 GE being 'a bygone age' - that is an interesting view. 2005 is ancient history in political terms. Canterbury was safe Tory. Heck, even in 2015 Canterbury was safe Tory!
Times change, demographics shift, opinions and priorities change, people die... I'm sure the Tory base in the red wall will be larger in GE2024 than it was in 1997, despite seat tallies being zero or close to zero in both cases. Likewise, the Labour base in traditionally rock-solid Tory places is higher than it once was.
Indeed - but , with respect, there is a difference between 'change' and ' a bygone age.'. The latter would be more akin to relying on the fact that until the 1920s Wales was a Liberal stronghold - whereas now the party has no MPs at all there! |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 4, 2024 11:55:49 GMT
Merton showing an increased lead for Khan as well.
Sadiq Khan has received a boost after early results from the London mayoral election suggested a swing from the Conservatives to Labour. In Merton and Wandsworth, there was a 5.1 per cent Conservative to Labour swing, with Mr Khan achieving 48.3 per cent of the vote and his Tory rival Susan Hall getting 28.6 per cent
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steve
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Post by steve on May 4, 2024 11:57:13 GMT
RAF Sadiq Khan: 84,725 Looks like I might have been right about lib dems lending Khan their vote
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Post by RAF on May 4, 2024 11:59:44 GMT
RAF Sadiq Khan: 84,725 Looks like I might have been right about lib dems lending Khan their vote It's a shame it has to be this way. I would much rather people voted for the party closest to their views, but that's FPTP for you. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 4, 2024 12:08:55 GMT
2005 is ancient history in political terms. Canterbury was safe Tory. Heck, even in 2015 Canterbury was safe Tory!
Times change, demographics shift, opinions and priorities change, people die... I'm sure the Tory base in the red wall will be larger in GE2024 than it was in 1997, despite seat tallies being zero or close to zero in both cases. Likewise, the Labour base in traditionally rock-solid Tory places is higher than it once was.
Indeed - but , with respect, there is a difference between 'change' and ' a bygone age.'. The latter would be more akin to relying on the fact that until the 1920s Wales was a Liberal stronghold - whereas now the party has no MPs at all there! The dictionary definition of the word bygone is "from an earlier time". Your definition is a figment of your imagination. As @sotonsaint has already said, 20 years is a very long time in terms of politics and demography. |
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Post by graham on May 4, 2024 12:13:21 GMT
Indeed - but , with respect, there is a difference between 'change' and ' a bygone age.'. The latter would be more akin to relying on the fact that until the 1920s Wales was a Liberal stronghold - whereas now the party has no MPs at all there! The dictionary definition of the word bygone is "from and earlier time". Your definition is a figment of your imagination. As @sotonsaint has already said, 20 years is a very long time in terms of politics and demography. Relying on your definition would imply that yesterday is a bygone age. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 4, 2024 12:17:18 GMT
Just don't celebrate it by watching The Phantom Menace.. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 4, 2024 12:27:06 GMT
The dictionary definition of the word bygone is "from and earlier time". Your definition is a figment of your imagination. As @sotonsaint has already said, 20 years is a very long time in terms of politics and demography. Relying on your definition would imply that yesterday is a bygone age. If it was yesterday I would have said yesterday, but considering 2005 was very nearly 20 years ago, I used bygone age. |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 4, 2024 12:27:55 GMT
While I still expect Sadiq Khan to win the London Mayoralty again, an interesting tweet from someone who calls themselves Marwan
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