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Post by RAF on May 3, 2024 16:22:48 GMT
Just to expand on my last comment, it does look as if reports of a turnout of around 30% in the London Mayoral contest were...well...untrue (see Steve's link).
Most areas so far reporting turnouts of around 40%.
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Post by RAF on May 3, 2024 16:25:56 GMT
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Post by ptarmigan on May 3, 2024 16:44:56 GMT
Turnout in Bexley & Bromley being higher than 2021 and lower everywhere else is making me slightly concerned about London. However, it is a bit of a mixed picture and difficult to draw any firm conclusions, especially as these constituencies are quite large and are often a combination of both Labour and Tory-inclined boroughs.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2024 16:56:57 GMT
Sky projection based on these results Labour largest party around 20 short of an overall majority
Lib dems on around 40:
And
Tories on around 230.
My immediate thought was what a load of old codswallop.
I would of course be delighted for Labour to have to have my parties support but I suspect the chances of that are about the same as Rob Edwards calling me to turn out to save the team from relegation.
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Post by RAF on May 3, 2024 17:00:16 GMT
Turnout in Bexley & Bromley being higher than 2021 and lower everywhere else is making me slightly concerned about London. However, it is a bit of a mixed picture and difficult to draw any firm conclusions, especially as these constituencies are quite large and are often a combination of both Labour and Tory-inclined boroughs. Well Bexley and Bromley are both exclusively Tory boroughs - so there that! But I take your point. I live in Bromley and agree it is less Tory than it used to be. |
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Post by mercian on May 3, 2024 17:02:19 GMT
Danny - "Hastings so far has gained four greens." No one noticed. I thought that they'd had four greens since December 2019. EDIT: Damn! beaten by steve this time.  |
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Post by mercian on May 3, 2024 17:09:55 GMT
Unsurprisingly Sandwell has returned 22 Labour, 1 Con and 1 Ind. Not a surprise at all. Council is now 65 Lab, 5 Con, 2 Ind.
I haven't looked at swings and so on, but Reform beat Green and LibDem in most wards.
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Post by James E on May 3, 2024 17:10:31 GMT
Sky projection based on these results Labour largest party around 20 short of an overall majority Lib dems on around 40: And Tories on around 230. My immediate thought was what a load of old codswallop. I would of course be delighted for Labour to have to have my parties support but I suspect the chances of that are about the same as Rob Edwards calling me to turn out to save the team from relegation. As I said yesterday: "PNV from the May 2023 Local Elections was: Lab 35% Con 26% LD 20% The norm is for the LDs to outperform their polling by 8-10 points, with a similar underperformance by Labour (when they doing well). The Tories might be expected to get around their current Westminster polling average of low-to-mid 20s. It should help them that there are so few RefUK candidates. So I'd expect similar to 2023 for Lab and LDs this time, and the Tories just a bit lower. [11:30am - If Labour achieve less than a 12% lead, we can expect the usual suspects in the Tories' client media claiming that this would not be enough for an overall majority, per UNS. I imagine we'll be hearing this by about this time tomorrow.] Last Edit: yesterday at 11:29am by James E |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 3, 2024 17:24:09 GMT
RAFBexley and Bromley verification complete. And turnout up 5% (43% in 2021. 48% 2024). That's good for the Tories but maybe not enough. Hmm. Im not really clear why low or high turnout might be expected to favour either main party? It might imply anti conservative voters are really motivated to vote labour (which seems to be whats happening). |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 3, 2024 17:29:00 GMT
Sky projection based on these results Labour largest party around 20 short of an overall majority Lib dems on around 40: And Tories on around 230. My immediate thought was what a load of old codswallop. I would of course be delighted for Labour to have to have my parties support but I suspect the chances of that are about the same as Rob Edwards calling me to turn out to save the team from relegation. Yeah, I am a bit puzzled why sources seem to be downplaying the situation we are seeing here, which is a Blair style landslide. I guess lab dont want their voters to get complacent, and con dont want to admit their 14 years of core con policy has upset an awful lot of people. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2024 17:29:10 GMT
Sky projection based on these results Labour largest party around 20 short of an overall majority Lib dems on around 40: And Tories on around 230. My immediate thought was what a load of old codswallop. I would of course be delighted for Labour to have to have my parties support but I suspect the chances of that are about the same as Rob Edwards calling me to turn out to save the team from relegation. I have no idea how they arrived at that. Even if you just put the calculated "national vote share", which would not actually be replicated in a GE, into Electoral Calculus you still get a Labour majority of 100. |
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Post by RAF on May 3, 2024 17:30:38 GMT
And turnout up 5% (43% in 2021. 48% 2024). That's good for the Tories but maybe not enough. Hmm. Im not really clear why low or high turnout might be expected to favour either main party? It might imply anti conservative voters are really motivated to vote labour (which seems to be whats happening). Bexley and Bromley are both very Comservative areas, and in the context of Mayoral races, the Tories have to do well there to make up for their unpopularity in other areas. The fact that B&B (+5) and Redbridge and Havering (+7%) have had noticeably higher turnouts than last time suggests a higher Tory overall vote. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 3, 2024 17:32:04 GMT
Danny - "Hastings so far has gained four greens." No one noticed. I thought that they'd had four greens since December 2019. EDIT: Damn! beaten by steve this time. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2024 17:33:12 GMT
[11:30am - If Labour achieve less than a 12% lead, we can expect the usual suspects in the Tories' client media claiming that this would not be enough for an overall majority, per UNS. I imagine we'll be hearing this by about this time tomorrow.] Last Edit: yesterday at 11:29am by James E Oh dear, Chris Mason has just indirectly referenced UNS and the 2019 *mountain" on the BBC news. I guess that makes the BBC news department "Tory client media" - surely not  (Actually I think he was just trying to make the political situation sound more of a 'horse race' than it currently is). |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 3, 2024 17:47:23 GMT
This result in Nuneaton and Bedworth may have gone under the radar a little today, but it's a significant one in terms of Labour's prospects in a general election. In that respect, it's a little like parliamentary seats such as Tamworth and Redditch. Bellwether seats that tend to go the way of the general election winning party. Labour have now regained overall control of the council and made sweeping gains. Below sometimes ambivalent headline data, this supports the argument that Labour are winning in exactly the sort of places that they need to in order to win a general election, and these places being exactly where they've struggled so badly since 2010. www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/local-news/labour-seize-nuneaton-bedworth-borough-29110300P.S. One to encourage steve. The Lib Dems have retained control of Cheltenham and have succeeded in wiping out the Tory Party. Zero councillors in the town. It is a Tory free zone. Regency town and genteel Cheltenham? Who'd have ever thought it?? Only one Tory councillor left standing in Worcester too. |
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Post by thylacine on May 3, 2024 17:56:10 GMT
City and East very low about 4 percent down ( may reflect voters staying away because of Gaza). Havering and Redbridge etc higher maybe because of Ulez. Not feeling very confident at the moment. Edited as didn't mean Haringey in original post. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 3, 2024 17:58:46 GMT
I don't how accurate this report is but, if true would seem likely to be significant at the GE only in marginal constituencies where Muslims - or other groups who identify with Gaza (for example those who identify with their Irish heritage) - form 5-10% of the electorate.
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Post by RAF on May 3, 2024 17:58:52 GMT
Havering and Redbridge turnout figure pulled down from London Elects website.
This also happened earlier in thd day when Southwalk and Lambeth was originally posted at 33% and subsequently corrected to 39%.
Remember H&R originally saw an increase of 7.5%. Whether the corrected data is higher, lower or stays the same could go a long way to determining who might win.
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Post by RAF on May 3, 2024 18:03:44 GMT
Havering and Redbridge turnout figure pulled down from London Elects website. This also happened earlier in thd day when Southwalk and Lambeth was originally posted at 33% and subsequently corrected to 39%. Remember H&R originally saw an increase of 7.5%. Whether the corrected data is higher, lower or stays the same could go a long way to determining who might win. It's been corrected to 42.94% (an increase of 2.2%). That will be a huge relief to Labour. |
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Post by RAF on May 3, 2024 18:11:31 GMT
City and East very low about 4 percent down ( may reflect voters staying away because of Gaza). Haringey etc higher maybe because of Ulez. Not feeling very confident at the moment. Not that much down. It was 31.17%, down 1.83% on 2021 (33%). |
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Post by graham on May 3, 2024 18:15:41 GMT
graham . Possibly but under the previous fairer system second preference votes from liberal democrats break 2:1 for Labour. Yes but Driscoll as a Labour Independent might well have been more attractive to LD and Green voters when allocating second preferences. |
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Post by thylacine on May 3, 2024 18:16:16 GMT
City and East very low about 4 percent down ( may reflect voters staying away because of Gaza). Haringey etc higher maybe because of Ulez. Not feeling very confident at the moment. Not that much down. It was 31.17%, down 1.83% on 2021 (33%). Have to admit I got my info from Conservative home ( yes I will wash my mouth out with soap) They are claiming it was 35 % last time. |
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Post by shevii on May 3, 2024 18:19:55 GMT
Dunno where exactly Bristol Central is on the map. Lots of green dots in the centre of this map!
Direction of travel in Bristol is in the Greens favour but not sure if this produces an overall majority- possibly not.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 3, 2024 18:25:52 GMT
Update on Hastings, there are now +8 green councillors, which is 6 con losses and two lab losses. The independent labour dont seem to have got any. That means green now have 12 out of 32, 8 labour, 5 con and 7 indendents (probably former labour). I think it also important that in one staunchly conservative ward, they only held it because the labour vote was split between lab and independent labour.
Labour have been vaguely in power here, so I guess this is an example where people arent too keen on the incumbent. But plainly they arent keen on con and so have gone green. Interestingly too that vote would surely once have gone liberal, but lib are there none.
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Post by RAF on May 3, 2024 18:26:45 GMT
Not that much down. It was 31.17%, down 1.83% on 2021 (33%). Have to admit I got my info from Conservative home ( yes I will wash my mouth out with soap) They are claiming it was 35 % last time. LOL! commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9231/Click on "Download Full Report." Go to the left hand side of page 29 for the Mayoral Turnout figures from 2021. |
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Post by graham on May 3, 2024 18:28:14 GMT
It is actually a bit more than that! It is the stage at which party scrutineers look on very keenly with clipboards as the ballot papers are revealed. Good scrutineers will have a detailed sense of how a given ballot box and its associated polling station has voted long before the votes are sorted for each candidates at the next stage of the count. The LDs are very good it - as is Labour. At Parliamentary by election counts it is very much the norm to hear from these guys that party A or party B has won by 3000 or so - hours before the count is concluded. I would be confident that those who attended the verification stage in specific London Boroughs will have a very good idea as to their Boroughs have voted. Obviously this information will have been fed back to the party HQs. It is likely to be the basis of the rumours now circulating. |
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Post by graham on May 3, 2024 18:38:15 GMT
Hmm. Im not really clear why low or high turnout might be expected to favour either main party? It might imply anti conservative voters are really motivated to vote labour (which seems to be whats happening). Bexley and Bromley are both very Comservative areas, and in the context of Mayoral races, the Tories have to do well there to make up for their unpopularity in other areas. The fact that B&B (+5) and Redbridge and Havering (+7%) have had noticeably higher turnouts than last time suggests a higher Tory overall vote. Bexley has generally not been an exactly solid Tory borough - in the way that Bromley has usually voted. Sidcup is reliably Tory but Bexleyheath was a Tory-leaning marginal with Erith & Crayford pretty good for Labour. Ted Heath's original Bexley seat which existed pre-1974 was never entirely safe for him - though Sidcup was much more so. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 3, 2024 18:57:46 GMT
Since public statements seem so at odds with the polling we are seeing, I am beginning to wonder if both main parties are very keen to downplay the situation. They are trying to give the impresion the general election is not already a foregone conclusion, because if it is then a lot of these protest voters who simply want con out, might start voing on principle for the party they actually like best. Which could be refuk, or indeed libs or greens. If that happened enough, then these minor parties might actually come into contention. Even a second place could be a springboard for a future election. Con do not need libs beating them to second place. Sunak seems to be trying to persuade people its still worth voting con, when it really doesnt look like it is.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 3, 2024 18:58:55 GMT
So, please can someone correct my understanding if I'm wrong. I think the Guardian numbers go by gains on the night. Sky and BBC maybe comparing to 2021 results. So, in which case the 'others' for the Guardian already has baked in defections from Labour due to Gaza.
These really are in seats where Labour will win any way. If that is the case, Sunak should be very worried.
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Post by graham on May 3, 2024 19:27:04 GMT
There are some odd crumbs of comfort for the Tories. Labour probably had hopes of winning the Cambridgeshire PCC but the Tories have been saved by the new voting system - despite there being Local Elections in Cambridge and Peterborough. The final result was -
Con 62588
Lab 58804
LD 41984
A bit surpeisingly the Tories narrowly outpolled Labour in Peterborough. Labour was probably hampered by too many Labour-inclined voters having been in the habit of voting LD tactically at Local Elections who then failed to appreciate the different dynamics of the PCC election. Under the former system Labour would surely have won.
The result from South Cambridgeshire was interesting -
Con 11262
LD 11091
Lab 9141
That tends to support the message that the new seat could well be a three - way contest - particularly as the areas moved into the seat from Cambridge itself would not appearin those figures.
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