jib
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Post by jib on May 3, 2024 19:35:26 GMT
graham FPTP means unfortunately it's vote Lib Dem get Tory.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2024 19:36:09 GMT
Now looking an excellent day for the home team 92 gains with 100+ likely Labour on +169 which obviously is good but possibly a tad below expectations.
It's of course vote lib dem get lib dem, blindingly obvious unless you've got your head up your arse.
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Dave
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Post by Dave on May 3, 2024 19:39:58 GMT
There are some odd crumbs of comfort for the Tories.:. … if you look hard enough and really, really, really, REALLY want to find them. You to Labour come across as the stereotypical ex-smoker and cigarettes. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on May 3, 2024 19:46:44 GMT
Danny - "Hastings so far has gained four greens." No one noticed. They got them last September. |
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Post by graham on May 3, 2024 19:49:53 GMT
Surprised that Labour has won the Norfolk PCC - much bigger swing than Cambridgeshire.
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Post by crossbat11 on May 3, 2024 19:51:01 GMT
There are some odd crumbs of comfort for the Tories. Labour probably had hopes of winning the Cambridgeshire PCC but the Tories have been saved by the new voting system - despite there being Local Elections in Cambridge and Peterborough. The final result was - Con 62588 Lab 58804 LD 41984 A bit surpeisingly the Tories narrowly outpolled Labour in Peterborough. Labour was probably hampered by too many Labour-inclined voters having been in the habit of voting LD tactically at Local Elections who then failed to appreciate the different dynamics of the PCC election. Under the former system Labour would surely have won. The result from South Cambridgeshire was interesting - Con 11262 LD 11091 Lab 9141 That tends to support the message that the new seat could well be a three - way contest - particularly as the areas moved into the seat from Cambridge itself would not appearin those figures. Rishi Sunak, Tories everywhere, go back to your constituencies and prepare for another term in government. |
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Post by James E on May 3, 2024 19:52:29 GMT
Surprised that Labour has won the Norfolk PCC - much bigger swing than Cambridgeshire. That must be because Labour delivered leaflets for the PCC in Norfolk. I didn't get one in Cambridgeshire. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 3, 2024 19:52:36 GMT
graham FPTP means unfortunately it's vote Lib Dem get Tory. Best to cut out the middle man and just vote Tory, as you well know. |
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Post by graham on May 3, 2024 19:58:10 GMT
Surprised that Labour has won the Norfolk PCC - much bigger swing than Cambridgeshire. That must be because Labour delivered leaflets for the PCC in Norfolk. I didn't get one in Cambridgeshire. I received no PCC literature from anyone - but did vote Labour. My vote really did count! |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 3, 2024 19:59:06 GMT
graham FPTP means unfortunately it's vote Lib Dem get Tory. Best to cut out the middle man and just vote Tory, as you well know. 2010 was vote lib get con, but 2015 was vote con get Brexit. Voting lib far the wiser choice. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 3, 2024 20:01:41 GMT
Turnout in Bexley & Bromley being higher than 2021 and lower everywhere else is making me slightly concerned about London. However, it is a bit of a mixed picture and difficult to draw any firm conclusions, especially as these constituencies are quite large and are often a combination of both Labour and Tory-inclined boroughs. I have yet to see anyone explain why specific higher turnouts might favour con. We know more people have switched to lab in strong con areas. We know most voters want tory out ASAP. High turnout merely indicate voters are motivated, it doesnt say why. If the middle classes have finally turned against con, they will mobilise! |
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jib
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Post by jib on May 3, 2024 20:13:33 GMT
graham FPTP means unfortunately it's vote Lib Dem get Tory. Best to cut out the middle man and just vote Tory, as you well know. Absolutely. I can only imagine that the Lib Dem membership is composed mostly of those comfortable with the 2010-15 coalition, and what's left of the Bollox refugees. |
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Post by EmCat on May 3, 2024 20:15:57 GMT
Turnout in Bexley & Bromley being higher than 2021 and lower everywhere else is making me slightly concerned about London. However, it is a bit of a mixed picture and difficult to draw any firm conclusions, especially as these constituencies are quite large and are often a combination of both Labour and Tory-inclined boroughs. I have yet to see anyone explain why specific higher turnouts might favour con. We know more people have switched to lab in strong con areas. We know most voters want tory out ASAP. High turnout merely indicate voters are motivated, it doesnt say why. If the middle classes have finally turned against con, they will mobilise! I suspect it is a media narrative that is hoping the light at the end of the tunnel is actually the end of the tunnel, and not an oncoming train. Hence, they have self-justified that low turnouts are "Well it's just all our usual Tory voters staying at home". Except that there may also be those who don't normally vote now being motivated to vote against them (the same kind of "not bothered about politics" folk who were persuaded to vote for Brexit, but who probably won' bother voting again). That second group of those voting to get rid may well be larger than the traditional voters who simply stayed at home this time. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2024 20:17:10 GMT
"I can only imagine "
That's for sure !
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2024 20:43:10 GMT
There are some odd crumbs of comfort for the Tories. Labour probably had hopes of winning the Cambridgeshire PCC but the Tories have been saved by the new voting system - despite there being Local Elections in Cambridge and Peterborough. The final result was - Con 62588 Lab 58804 LD 41984 That is true even in somewhere as Tory as Essex. The sitting Conservative PCFC finished 9,500 ahead of his Labour opponent after a huge swing to Lab, but 52,000 people voted Lib Dem. There can be little doubt that in the current circumstances the majority of them would have Labour as second choice. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2024 20:46:12 GMT
Just to note that if it does happen that Khan is defeated in London it will represent a triumph for the Conservatives gerrymandering measures, in this case the switch to the long past its sell-by-date FPTP system. There can be little doubt that Khan would be re-elected under the former system.
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Post by eor on May 3, 2024 20:48:57 GMT
Full result for Blackpool South By-Election 🌹 LAB: 58.9% (+20.6) 🌳 CON: 17.5% (-32.1) ➡️ RFM: 16.9% (+10.7) 🔶 LDM: 2.1% (-1.0) 🌍 GRN: 2.0% (+0.3) 🙋 IND: 0.9% (New) 👨👩👧👦 ADF: 0.8% (New) 🎩 MRLP: 0.7% (New) ....... I think Labour will be happy That is a monumental collapse of the Conservative vote. 17.5% is just 35% of their 2019 share, and is even lower than the 38-39% they recorded in Wellingborough and Rochdale. And the increase in the Labour vote will be very pleasing for Starmer. In rough terms, the Conservatives' lost vote share went two-thirds to Labour and one-third to Reform UK. That isn't what the polls are showing, as most have this the other way round. And even Survation, who I think are likely to be the most accurate for RUK, show Labour taking just a bit more of the Con 2019 vote than RUK (16% to 14%). Reform UK's vote share is marginally lower than the 17.3% which UKIP achieved in 2015, when UKIP took 12.5% of the GB vote. Given that the pre-2015 by-elections produced far better results for UKIP than the subsequent General Election, it should be clear that they are unlikely to be in contention for any seats, even if they retain 10-13% of the vote. That assumes the huge drop in turnout is completely uniform tho, which I doubt in reality it is. Another unlikely (but also mathematically valid) interpretation would be that Labour turned out 86% of their 2019 voters again for the by-election and the Tories only turned out 20% of theirs, with another 20% voting RefUK and the rest staying home. I suspect the reality is somewhere very much in between those two positions - we expect Labour to gain a non-trivial amount of Tory switchers, but if the Tory vote collapse is indeed primarily to the benefit of RefUK or to WNV then wouldn't last night's result also be consistent with that? |
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Post by mandolinist on May 3, 2024 20:56:09 GMT
Final result from Bristol. Greens become largest single party, 2 short of an overall majority. All the wards in Bristol Central constituency are now Green. It looks pretty difficult for Thangham Debonaire to hold that seat in the GE despite her huge majority. The Conservatives lost half their council seats and are reduced to just 7 councillors, making them the fourth party. Not a good result for Labour, but the Conservativesmust be weeping into their whisky tonight.
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jib
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Post by jib on May 3, 2024 20:57:53 GMT
"I can only imagine " That's for sure ! Can't agree more Imagine there's no Heaven Imagine there's no countries And no religion, too Living life in peace I hope someday you'll join us Imagine no possessions Sharing all the world It's easy if you try At least if you're a Lib Dem! |
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Post by alec on May 3, 2024 21:04:15 GMT
Poor old graham. He's like the party spokesman given the short straw of doing the media rounds in the 'Second Place in a By Election' sketch on the 1980s sketch show Not the None O'Clock News. Give it up mate. Labour triumphed, Tories got stuffed. The next election is done and dusted. There is no other interpretation available. |
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Post by graham on May 3, 2024 21:06:23 GMT
Final result from Bristol. Greens become largest single party, 2 short of an overall majority. All the wards in Bristol Central constituency are now Green. It looks pretty difficult for Thangham Debonaire to hold that seat in the GE despite her huge majority. The Conservatives lost half their council seats and are reduced to just 7 councillors, making them the fourth party. Not a good result for Labour, but the Conservativesmust be weeping into their whisky tonight. I disagree - and expect a Labour majority in excess of 10,000. A lot of Green - and indeed LD - support at council elections is 'easy come easy go'. I don't expect it to translate into support at a GE when turnout is much higher and the issues are very different - particularly at an election at which Labour will be moving forward nationally. |
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Post by graham on May 3, 2024 21:07:55 GMT
Poor old graham . He's like the party spokesman given the short straw of doing the media rounds in the 'Second Place in a By Election' sketch on the 1980s sketch show Not the None O'Clock News. Give it up mate. Labour triumphed, Tories got stuffed. The next election is done and dusted. There is no other interpretation available. I have not suggested otherwise - and voted Labour myself yesterday for the PCC! Believe it or not - I am capable of being perfectly objective psephologically and have never belonged to the School of Wishful Thinking. I speak as I find it - Others are free to disagree. I am always happy to bow down before the greater psephological insight of other commentators - but never inclined to accept things at face value. |
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2024 21:12:18 GMT
"I can only imagine " That's for sure ! Can't agree more Imagine there's no Heaven Imagine there's no countries And no religion, too Living life in peace I hope someday you'll join us Imagine no possessions Sharing all the world It's easy if you try At least if you're a Lib Dem! If you can’t remember the lyrics of the very famous song you’re pathetically attempting to quote you could always try googling it. Twat. (No offence.) |
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Post by johntel on May 3, 2024 21:12:34 GMT
Now looking an excellent day for the home team 92 gains with 100+ likely Labour on +169 which obviously is good but possibly a tad below expectations. It's of course vote lib dem get lib dem, blindingly obvious unless you've got your head up your arse. Richard Kenworthy William Biggs The Conservative Party 937 40% Elected Tom Turner The Labour Party 778 33% Not elected Steve Wotton The Liberal Democrats 390 17% Not elected Neville Guy Kemp The Green Party 236 10% Not elected Horley West 2024Steve Wotton The Liberal Democrats 1083 40% Elected Sujata Das The Conservative Party 749 28% Not elected Tom Turner The Labour Party 690 26% Not elected Neville Kemp The Green Party 174 6% Not elected I think this shows that previous Labour and Green voters understand that they need to vote tactically to keep the Tory out in Surrey. So I'm now pretty certain that the new constituency of Dorking and Horley will be a Lib Dem win at the general election. |
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Post by eor on May 3, 2024 21:17:33 GMT
Also on RefUK's VI - More generally I'm not convinced that 2015 UKIP is a great yardstick for RefUK. UKIP had a very specific, driven central purpose, so ahead of the 2015 GE it made sense for people to make the effort to cast protest votes for them in pretty much any election, especially lower-turnout ones where they might make some noise. And their conversion of that VI into the 2015 GE vote share, whilst impressive (and far above most wise predictions at the time) also had two important contexts to it - the GE itself was thought to be pretty close, and if the Tories won they'd promised to hold the referendum anyway.
None of that necessarily applies to RefUK VI this time around. It is increasingly clear the General Election is not going to be close at all, the chances of splitting the vote in their seat mattering is virtually nil. And also if a big chunk of RefUK VI is people who feel for whatever reason that this time around they won't/can't vote Tory and are giving RefUK as a protest option to pollsters, it doesn't seem that far-fetched that many of those people will be in the roughly half of GE voters who don't vote in other types of elections anyway, so there wouldn't be a UKIP-style footprint to map them from.
I think it's quite possible that the RefUK VI could hold up very well and if they're close enough to CON VI then the very uniformity that made it almost impossible for UKIP/BXP to win Westminster seats starts to act in their favour, turning a number of very safe Tory seats into three-way marginals which they could narrowly win.
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jib
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Post by jib on May 3, 2024 21:19:01 GMT
If you can’t remember the lyrics of the very famous song you’re pathetically attempting to quote you could always try googling it. Twat. (No offence.) More ripples in the peace pond. Never mind. (Edit: Duck - duckey, sharpened stones incoming) |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2024 21:20:39 GMT
Final result from Bristol. Greens become largest single party, 2 short of an overall majority. All the wards in Bristol Central constituency are now Green. It looks pretty difficult for Thangham Debonaire to hold that seat in the GE despite her huge majority. The Conservatives lost half their council seats and are reduced to just 7 councillors, making them the fourth party. Not a good result for Labour, but the Conservativesmust be weeping into their whisky tonight. You are on the ground there and I am not, but I have my doubts. In a GE the turnout will be higher and the stakes are different - i.e. who do you want to run the country rather than the council. My money would be on Labour winning easily enough, albeit with a reduced majority. 2028 or 2029 at the end of a period of Labour government might be a different matter. |
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Post by bardin1 on May 3, 2024 21:25:22 GMT
When is the last election night the Liberal Democrats had more candidates elected in local government elections than the Tories?
Maybe JIB can advise as he seems to keep tabs on those two
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2024 21:28:58 GMT
Interesting that RefUK are being talked up in the media - presumably off the back of the Blackpool South result. However, their local election performance was pathetic. To date with 102 councils reported they have won two councillors. Galloway's Worker's Party has won twice as many. RefUK clearly have little organisation or capacity to campaign at local level. They seem like simply a creation of the national media's obsession with Farage.
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jib
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Post by jib on May 3, 2024 21:30:18 GMT
When is the last election night the Liberal Democrats had more candidates elected in local government elections than the Tories? Maybe JIB can advise as he seems to keep tabs on those two I believe 1996 was a particularly good vintage for Chateaux Ashdown. There have been a few others too, but you couldn't go wrong with Paddy. |
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