steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2024 14:33:39 GMT
Lord Snooty engaging in alternative history saying in 2015 he did badly in the locals then went on to win the general election.
One of two slight problems the local elections in 2015 were on the same day as the general election and the Tory vote share went up 6% not down.The
Good to know that the Tories haven't lost that lying touch.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2024 14:39:26 GMT
Lord Snooty engaging in alternative history saying in 2015 he did badly in the locals then went on to win the general election. One of two slight problems the local elections in 2015 were on the same day as the general election and the Tory vote share went up 6% not down.The Good to know that the Tories haven't lost that lying touch. Even 2014 wasn't that awful for the Tories, in part because the Lib Dems collapsed. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_United_Kingdom_local_elections |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 3, 2024 14:43:46 GMT
Lord Snooty engaging in alternative history saying in 2015 he did badly in the locals then went on to win the general election. I heard some tory being interviewed who explained the nation should get behind their leaders, Sunak, Hunt and Lord Cameron. I thought it quite remarkable they named these three to try to get support, considering Cameron is now resurrected as a Lord. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 3, 2024 14:54:30 GMT
thylacine - not sure how significant this is, as turnout was just 30%, but it is a largely blue area, including Rishi Sunak's seat. It's certainly symbolic, although I suspect that the swing against Houchen in Tees Valley and the likely Labour win in East Midlands will be of more consequence in terms of GE results, along with the near wipe out of Con councilors in places like Swindon, where they were in power just a couple of years ago. That said, any Labour win in an area like York & N Yorks is significant at some level. What we appear to be seeing (and I'm sure others will have better analyses of this) is that apart from some localised problems where there are high proportions of Muslim voters, Labour is gaining strongly vs Conservative in pretty much in all types of area. Red wall, blue wall, coast, urban, rural, north, south - the Tory Party is on the slide, and the rate of descent appears to be quickening.
Edit: Not sure how significant this is, but the Con vote was less than the Greens + Independents combined. Cons got just over a quarter of votes cast, which seems terrible.
The swing against Houchen In Tees Valley needs to be seen in context. Whilst there has been a 19% swing against him since 2021 when compared with 2017 - when he was first elected - the result actually represents a swing to the Tories of circa 5%. This is despite the fact that in May 2017 we were only a month away from a |GE at which Theresa May was expected to win a sweeping majority on the basis that at that point the Tories were 20% ahead in the polls. I am intrigued that Houchen has had such success at brushing away the widely alleged curruption allegations. Any ideas? As you often do, you're engaging in psephological sophistry and statistical legerdemain in order to flog some tired old political horse of yours. Houchen's vote share collapsed by 20% and Labour enjoyed a 16% swing to them since the last contest. That's how swings are calculated, not by skipping past contests to get to previous ones in search of more favourable statistics. Houchen's 70,000 plus majority was slashed to a little over 18,000. He won the contest but don't you think those figures suggest there might well have been some negative reaction from voters to some of the corruption allegations made against him? |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 3, 2024 14:57:12 GMT
Hastings so far has gained four greens. One example of the independant labour and labour candidates splitting the vote and letting in con.
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Post by jimjam on May 3, 2024 15:02:29 GMT
Matt Storey wins Cleveland PCC, defeating incumbent Tory.
This covers all Tees Valley except Darlington which shows the Houchen effect.
I could write an Essay on Houchen and corruption allegations and whether this helped or hindered Labour etc but will spare you all!
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Post by pete on May 3, 2024 15:03:25 GMT
Twitter still claiming Hall has taken London?
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2024 15:09:05 GMT
peteWhich is of course b.s. as the votes haven't been counted Where there's a tweet there's a twat.
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Post by graham on May 3, 2024 15:11:51 GMT
The swing against Houchen In Tees Valley needs to be seen in context. Whilst there has been a 19% swing against him since 2021 when compared with 2017 - when he was first elected - the result actually represents a swing to the Tories of circa 5%. This is despite the fact that in May 2017 we were only a month away from a |GE at which Theresa May was expected to win a sweeping majority on the basis that at that point the Tories were 20% ahead in the polls. I am intrigued that Houchen has had such success at brushing away the widely alleged curruption allegations. Any ideas? As you often do, you're engaging in psephological sophistry and statistical legerdemain in order to flog some tired old political horse of yours. Houchen's vote share collapsed by 20% and Labour enjoyed a 16% swing to them since the last contest. That's how swings are calculated, not by skipping past contests to get to previous ones in search of more favourable statistics. Houchen's 70,000 plus majority was slashed to a little over 18,000. He won the contest but don't you think those figures suggest there might well have been some negative reaction from voters to some of the corruption allegations made against him? 'Swing' can be calculated from any base year - whether 2021 , 2019 , 2017 or any other year. There is nothing at all that stipulates we should only return to the most recent elections when seeking to compare or analyse. Of course , there has been a big swing against Houchen compared with 2021 - likely to be explained by the deep unpopularity of the Tories at this time. What we have not seen is a swing against Houchen since 2021 which compensates for the swing in his favour from 2017 - 2021.! It is entirely reasonable to ask why this should be the case - particularly in the light of some unsavoury rumours relating to him.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2024 15:12:52 GMT
Yesterday the convicted coward said the gag order prevented him giving evidence .
This is of course total cobblers confirmed today by the case judge.
Trump has 'absolute right' to testify at his trial, says judge
Judge Juan Merchan
The judge says it had come to his attention that “there maybe a misunderstanding” over whether the gag order impacts Trump’s right to testify at trial. Merchan says:
I want to stress Mr Trump that you have an absolute right to testify at trial.
He continues:
That is a constitutional right that will not be denied or abnegated in any way ... It is a fundamental right that cannot be infringed upon ... the order prohibiting extra-judicial statements does not prevent you from testifying in any way.
If anyone should be preventing the pathological lying lunatic giving evidence it should be his defence team.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on May 3, 2024 15:16:43 GMT
pete Which is of course b.s. as the votes haven't been counted Where there's a tweet there's a twat. Surely Twitter (X) doesn't say anything, unless Mr Moneybags has gone all editorial. Anybody can SAY anything on the platform but it's very rarely the platform itself. |
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Post by thylacine on May 3, 2024 15:16:51 GMT
Meanwhile in my little corner of the Tory stronghold that is Essex both Brentwood and Baz Vegas have fallen to NOC. Oh happy days!
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Post by thylacine on May 3, 2024 15:28:24 GMT
Sky news beginning to report on a tight race in London for Khan. Worrying
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2024 15:32:56 GMT
Operation diversion at sky news.
Apparently the most significant thing with the Blackpool by election wasn't the third biggest swing to Labour since 1945 it was that the refukers came third.
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Post by graham on May 3, 2024 15:37:08 GMT
It seems possible that Labour's win for the NE Mayoralty owed a lot to the change in the electoral system. Under the previous system second preferences may have been very helpful to Driscoll.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on May 3, 2024 15:37:46 GMT
A total of 1500 seats have been declared by the 70 out of 107 council who've declared so far.
Before the election
Labour 605 (40%), Con 551 (38%), LD 195 (13%), Ind 79 (5%), Green 57 (4%)
So far
Labour 720 (48%), Con 277 (18%), LD 239 (16%) Ind 159 (11%), Green 68 (5%)
On that basis
Labour have gained 8%, Con have lost 20%, LD have gained 3%, Ind 6% and Greens 1%
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2024 15:38:08 GMT
thylacine "Londoners’ votes for the Mayor of London, London Assembly Constituency member and London Assembly London-wide member contests will be verified and counted over the two days after polling day on Thursday 2 May. The verification of ballot papers from all three contests will take place on Friday 3 May, and the votes cast for all three contests will be counted on Saturday 4 May"I suppose there could be some idea of the result based on total votes cast and location but no one knows the result. Anyone who elected Hall would be bonkers. I can find no indication on Sky's web site tv channel or other social media sites indicating anything about London. Given the vote doesn't start until 9am tomorrow not surprising.
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Post by graham on May 3, 2024 15:42:33 GMT
thylacine "Londoners’ votes for the Mayor of London, London Assembly Constituency member and London Assembly London-wide member contests will be verified and counted over the two days after polling day on Thursday 2 May. The verification of ballot papers from all three contests will take place on Friday 3 May, and the votes cast for all three contests will be counted on Saturday 4 May"I suppose there could be some idea of the result based on total votes cast and location but no one knows the result. Anyone who elected Hall would be bonkers. That depends on the information filtering through from the verification process. |
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Post by alec on May 3, 2024 15:44:05 GMT
Danny - "Hastings so far has gained four greens." No one noticed.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2024 15:44:24 GMT
graham. Possibly but under the previous fairer system second preference votes from liberal democrats break 2:1 for Labour.
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Post by EmCat on May 3, 2024 15:44:45 GMT
I think I read that Cons are defending just under 1,000 seats overall, and so with just under half the councils declared, their losses of 190 suggest a very bad night indeed. At this rate they won't be far short of a 50% seat loss. That's really catastrophic in a GE year. I grabbed a copy of the image from the BBC website this morning, before it disappeared off the main page of live updates, showing how many seats each parry was defending ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2024/5/2/f9f38592-8b62-427b-bb76-12d91e0677d8.pnglinkCon 989
Lab 973
LD 418
Ind / other 135
Grn 107
Residents' Associations 37
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2024 15:45:16 GMT
"Hastings so far has gained four greens."
No one noticed. "
That's because they were secretly elected in November 2019
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Post by RAF on May 3, 2024 15:48:40 GMT
Sky news beginning to report on a tight race in London for Khan. Worrying The question is how tight? Bailey lost by 5% last time (on first preferences). |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 3, 2024 15:51:11 GMT
The latest unsubstantiated rumour is that the London Mayoral turnout could be as low as 30%. That would be a low turnout if true, but by the standards of these municipal mayoral contests, not too much out of kilter with what to expect. Johnson won in London in 2012 on a 38% turnout and Street won in the West Midlands in 2021 on a 31% turnout. Burnham won in Greater Manchester in 2021 on a 34% turnout. As did Houchen in Teeside in 2021. Etc etc etc... If you factor in adults who haven't registered to vote and the introduction of FPTP rules, then many of these Mayors are getting into office on the votes of a very small proportion of the populations they go on to serve. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2024 15:56:48 GMT
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Post by leftieliberal on May 3, 2024 16:08:22 GMT
thylacine "Londoners’ votes for the Mayor of London, London Assembly Constituency member and London Assembly London-wide member contests will be verified and counted over the two days after polling day on Thursday 2 May. The verification of ballot papers from all three contests will take place on Friday 3 May, and the votes cast for all three contests will be counted on Saturday 4 May"I suppose there could be some idea of the result based on total votes cast and location but no one knows the result. Anyone who elected Hall would be bonkers. That depends on the information filtering through from the verification process. It is strictly illegal for anyone with knowledge of what has gone on in the verification process to disclose it before the declaration of the results. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2024 16:14:29 GMT
Interesting take from Sheffield, While this has been a Labour success the area that constitutes the only real lib dem Labour parliamentary contest ,Sheffield Hallam, appears to have elected Lib Dem councillors.
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Post by RAF on May 3, 2024 16:17:46 GMT
Turnout data so far very similar to last time. Although we await some big Tory blocks such as Bexley and Bromley. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2024 16:19:23 GMT
80 out of 107 council elections now complete.
Labour +129
Lib dems +49
Greens+36
Independents and Ratepayers associations + 89
Tories -308
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2024 16:20:53 GMT
RAFBexley and Bromley verification complete.
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