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Post by johntel on May 3, 2024 13:01:22 GMT
Curtice with a suitably arresting headline in the Telegraph: Reform might be about to wipe out the Tories
“The Conservative party would have been lucky to have had a 1997-style wipeout. This result may prove terminal
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Third, Labour advanced most strongly by squeezing the Liberal Democrat vote in wards where the Tories were trying to fend off a Labour challenge.
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They didn't 'squeeze the Lib Dem vote' - the Lib Dems voted tactically to keep the Tory out. |
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Post by graham on May 3, 2024 13:03:25 GMT
In Norwich Labour has lost 2 seats to the Greens whilst making one gain from an Independent. Last sear has gone to a recount .
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 3, 2024 13:04:28 GMT
Curtice with a suitably arresting headline in the Telegraph: Reform might be about to wipe out the Tories
“The Conservative party would have been lucky to have had a 1997-style wipeout. This result may prove terminal
…
Third, Labour advanced most strongly by squeezing the Liberal Democrat vote in wards where the Tories were trying to fend off a Labour challenge.
...
They didn't 'squeeze the Lib Dem vote' - the Lib Dems voted tactically to keep the Tory out. It was a tactical squeeze, they squeezed themselves. (Happily the Tories are also squeezing themselves to keep the Tories out) |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on May 3, 2024 13:09:10 GMT
Theo Underwood has tweeted that his report of Tory optimism about the London Mayoral contest is based on higher postal votes in Outer London than Inner London. Theo Usherwood not Underwood was the Political Editor of LBC but left the station a year or so ago. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 3, 2024 13:14:46 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w - re the long covid study; worth mentioning that there are many who have had LC for >2 years already, and the causal pathways seem different in different patients. Some do display slow recoveries, but many do not (yet). There is also evidence that LC can be worsened/reactivated upon reinfection. Sure, they were considering the more likely outcome, rather than all of the cases, including the extra difficulties experienced by some. While in some cases, it may well be that it continues for longer than two years, even if it more usually stops after just two years, it seems to me that two years is still quite a long time to have an overly active immune system. |
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Post by jayblanc on May 3, 2024 13:14:53 GMT
While immediate rejoining is off the table, I don't think it has been punted as far into the distance as it appears. I strongly expect that return to the EU will be used as a means to fend off either a referendum in Scotland or a border poll in NI. (Or possibly Gibraltar should the situation there get worse) I do expect that in the next couple of years, there will be negotiations to have a better trade deal. Which will end with the UK "reluctantly" rejoining the Customs Union. Which will be the first of a series of "reluctantly" undoing all the damage of Brexit. The EU are certain to make a path to return as easy as possible within the bounds of keeping the EU integral, but that means some strong caveats and demonstration of full cooperation. They still do want the UK back, but it'll be on their terms. It's quite possible that the UK will be expected to enter the Schengen area to demonstrate it's bonafides and commitment. Totally agree and especially that for renewed full membership a big statement of commitment would be needed such as either the single currency or Schengen. I doubt it would be Schengen if only because the Rep. of Ireland is not in it and one of the UK or Ireland joining Schengen would invalidate the CTA that has been a pillar of Anglo-Irish relations since Irish independence. Now you could argue, though it might be delicate to say so, that the only reason Ireland is not in Schengen is because of the UK and the CTA. Therefore if the UK were to join Schengen Ireland could as well but it would be bad optics for that country to be seen to be forced to take that step only because the UK had. In any case I think probably either Schengen or the single currency would likely be too big a mouthful for any British gvt to swallow in the near future at least and so I think some kind of customised, 'associate' membership might end up being devised, perhaps with fewer voting rights and less parliamentary representation. That could also end up being a future template for Ukraine. Ireland has long wanted to be part of Schengen, and was held back from it by the CTA having treaty precedence, then complicated further by Brexit. There's a significant pot of money in direct funding that Ireland is excluded from by being outwith Schengen, as well as missing out on the economic benefits. I doubt there's any chance at all of the EU considering 'associate membership', this has been outright refused as an option throughout the existence of the EU, and if anyone was going to be given that first it would be Ukraine not the UK. Voting rights will come only with full membership. At most the UK might be allowed non-voting representation from closer alignment. |
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Post by alec on May 3, 2024 13:16:15 GMT
I think I read that Cons are defending just under 1,000 seats overall, and so with just under half the councils declared, their losses of 190 suggest a very bad night indeed. At this rate they won't be far short of a 50% seat loss. That's really catastrophic in a GE year.
On the bright side, retaining the two headline mayors might just be enough to persuade Tories not to dump Sunak.
As Trevor used to proclaim, we're all 'Ready for Rishi'.
Can't wait!
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2024 13:20:23 GMT
I think I read that Cons are defending just under 1,000 seats overall, and so with just under half the councils declared, their losses of 190 suggest a very bad night indeed. At this rate they won't be far short of a 50% seat loss. That's really catastrophic in a GE year. On the bright side, retaining the two headline mayors might just be enough to persuade Tories not to dump Sunak. As Trevor used to proclaim, we're all 'Ready for Rishi'. Can't wait! Trevor had moved on to "Kemi" as the next big thing before his departure. I wonder if he is now extolling the virtues of "Penny" over on Conservative Home these days. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 3, 2024 13:31:41 GMT
Totally agree and especially that for renewed full membership a big statement of commitment would be needed such as either the single currency or Schengen. I doubt it would be Schengen if only because the Rep. of Ireland is not in it and one of the UK or Ireland joining Schengen would invalidate the CTA that has been a pillar of Anglo-Irish relations since Irish independence. Now you could argue, though it might be delicate to say so, that the only reason Ireland is not in Schengen is because of the UK and the CTA. Therefore if the UK were to join Schengen Ireland could as well but it would be bad optics for that country to be seen to be forced to take that step only because the UK had. In any case I think probably either Schengen or the single currency would likely be too big a mouthful for any British gvt to swallow in the near future at least and so I think some kind of customised, 'associate' membership might end up being devised, perhaps with fewer voting rights and less parliamentary representation. That could also end up being a future template for Ukraine. Ireland has long wanted to be part of Schengen, and was held back from it by the CTA having treaty precedence, then complicated further by Brexit. There's a significant pot of money in direct funding that Ireland is excluded from by being outwith Schengen, as well as missing out on the economic benefits. I doubt there's any chance at all of the EU considering 'associate membership', this has been outright refused as an option throughout the existence of the EU, and if anyone was going to be given that first it would be Ukraine not the UK. Voting rights will come only with full membership. At most the UK might be allowed non-voting representation from closer alignment. "At most the UK might be allowed non-voting representation from closer alignment." - I think that's the best we'll end up with, at least for the foreseeable future. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2024 13:33:02 GMT
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Post by alec on May 3, 2024 13:35:46 GMT
Labour think they've won the York and North Yorkshire mayor. If true, that would be quite a coup.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on May 3, 2024 13:35:59 GMT
I think I read that Cons are defending just under 1,000 seats overall, and so with just under half the councils declared, their losses of 190 suggest a very bad night indeed. At this rate they won't be far short of a 50% seat loss. That's really catastrophic in a GE year. On the bright side, retaining the two headline mayors might just be enough to persuade Tories not to dump Sunak. As Trevor used to proclaim, we're all 'Ready for Rishi'. Can't wait! Trevor had moved on to "Kemi" as the next big thing before his departure. I wonder if he is now extolling the virtues of "Penny" over on Conservative Home these days. I must get my eyes tested too. I read that as 'Trevor had moved on to 'Kermi'. Surely the frog would never support the Tories? |
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Post by thylacine on May 3, 2024 13:36:22 GMT
Request for a bit of analysis folks. Is there any significance to Labour win in York and North Yorkshire mayoralty just announced?
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Post by thylacine on May 3, 2024 13:37:09 GMT
Labour think they've won the York and North Yorkshire mayor. If true, that would be quite a coup. That was fast 😂 |
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Post by thylacine on May 3, 2024 13:39:18 GMT
Trevor had moved on to "Kemi" as the next big thing before his departure. I wonder if he is now extolling the virtues of "Penny" over on Conservative Home these days. I must get my eyes tested too. I read that as 'Trevor had moved on to 'Kermi'. Surely the frog would never support the Tories? : The Fable “The Scorpion and the Frog” Warns Us to Stay Wary of the Dangerous Ones |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 3, 2024 13:41:40 GMT
Trevor had moved on to "Kemi" as the next big thing before his departure. I wonder if he is now extolling the virtues of "Penny" over on Conservative Home these days. I must get my eyes tested too. I read that as 'Trevor had moved on to 'Kermi'. Surely the frog would never support the Tories? |
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Post by alec on May 3, 2024 13:43:26 GMT
thylacine - not sure how significant this is, as turnout was just 30%, but it is a largely blue area, including Rishi Sunak's seat. It's certainly symbolic, although I suspect that the swing against Houchen in Tees Valley and the likely Labour win in East Midlands will be of more consequence in terms of GE results, along with the near wipe out of Con councilors in places like Swindon, where they were in power just a couple of years ago. That said, any Labour win in an area like York & N Yorks is significant at some level. What we appear to be seeing (and I'm sure others will have better analyses of this) is that apart from some localised problems where there are high proportions of Muslim voters, Labour is gaining strongly vs Conservative in pretty much in all types of area. Red wall, blue wall, coast, urban, rural, north, south - the Tory Party is on the slide, and the rate of descent appears to be quickening.
Edit: Not sure how significant this is, but the Con vote was less than the Greens + Independents combined. Cons got just over a quarter of votes cast, which seems terrible.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2024 13:46:25 GMT
Request for a bit of analysis folks. Is there any significance to Labour win in York and North Yorkshire mayoralty just announced? It includes Rishi Sunak's constituency  |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2024 13:51:49 GMT
Poor old Festus Akinbusoye. The defeated Tory candidate in the Mid Beds by-election, he has now lost his post as PCC for Bedfordshire to Labour.
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Post by jimjam on May 3, 2024 13:56:35 GMT
Labour winning North Yorkshire and York Mayor has been expected for a few weeks.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 3, 2024 14:00:17 GMT
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2024 14:01:38 GMT
Labour winning North Yorkshire and York Mayor has been expected for a few weeks. Larger margin than the polling suggested though. |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 3, 2024 14:03:56 GMT
Glad you're not obsessed with the past. You'll no doubt be very happy to destroy all the statues of slave traders then. Let's throw all the Churchill statues while we're at it. Game on.
Anyway, not sure what to do about tonight's election coverage. Pretty busy time at work, and the first few hours aren't going to be that interesting I guess, just more posturing from all sides. So think I might try to get some sleep and get up early when there are actually some results to contemplate.
It is worth remembering that very little interesting will happen overnight (Blackpool South excepted) and we'll get a clearer view of the overall results by Friday afternoon. Some of the big mayor votes (London, West Midlands) will likely be Saturday. Not a huge amount of point in losing sleep when we have two days of results to come. We've just finished the verification stage for London Mayor and Assembly at about 2:30 pm in Harrow. So for those who need to be there tomorrow for the count proper, it all starts again at 9 am. Thankfully our Agent has given me a pass not to come in tomorrow (the counting agents were well outnumbered by the counters today and most of our counting agents can't come in tomorrow). Don't expect a declaration from City Hall before Saturday evening. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2024 14:04:58 GMT
York and North Yorkshire mayor
Felicity Clare Cunliffe-Lister Liberal Democrats Party 30,867
Keane Charles Duncan Conservative Party 51,967
Kevin Foster Green Party 15,188
Paul Steven Haslam Independent 12,370
David Robert Skaith Labour and Co-operative Party 66,761
Keith Graham Tordoff. Independent 13,250
The area includes Sunakered 's constituency
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2024 14:05:28 GMT
Not much damage done to Labour in Rochdale by Galloway's cohorts. Labour defended 15 seats and lost only one to the Workers Party.
Also Labour picked up Adur and retained Worthing in the well known socialist bastion of Sussex. Times do change.
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Post by graham on May 3, 2024 14:05:41 GMT
thylacine - not sure how significant this is, as turnout was just 30%, but it is a largely blue area, including Rishi Sunak's seat. It's certainly symbolic, although I suspect that the swing against Houchen in Tees Valley and the likely Labour win in East Midlands will be of more consequence in terms of GE results, along with the near wipe out of Con councilors in places like Swindon, where they were in power just a couple of years ago. That said, any Labour win in an area like York & N Yorks is significant at some level. What we appear to be seeing (and I'm sure others will have better analyses of this) is that apart from some localised problems where there are high proportions of Muslim voters, Labour is gaining strongly vs Conservative in pretty much in all types of area. Red wall, blue wall, coast, urban, rural, north, south - the Tory Party is on the slide, and the rate of descent appears to be quickening.
Edit: Not sure how significant this is, but the Con vote was less than the Greens + Independents combined. Cons got just over a quarter of votes cast, which seems terrible.
The swing against Houchen In Tees Valley needs to be seen in context. Whilst there has been a 19% swing against him since 2021 when compared with 2017 - when he was first elected - the result actually represents a swing to the Tories of circa 5%. This is despite the fact that in May 2017 we were only a month away from a |GE at which Theresa May was expected to win a sweeping majority on the basis that at that point the Tories were 20% ahead in the polls. I am intrigued that Houchen has had such success at brushing away the widely alleged curruption allegations. Any ideas? |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2024 14:08:38 GMT
Labour's Emma Wools in south Wales become UK's first black female police and crime commissioner
Wools worked in Probation. She held various roles in this time, including Head of Offender Service Integration within the National Offender Management Service, overseeing partnerships across Public Sector Prisons and the National Probation Service.
So rather better qualified than most for her new role.
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Post by jimjam on May 3, 2024 14:18:31 GMT
PJW, explains why final week resources where sent to York and North Yorkshire rather than Tees Valley as the lead in the former was lower than the deficit in the latter.
Risk of narrowing the TVM losing margin only to lose in Y&NY.
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Post by mercian on May 3, 2024 14:27:59 GMT
Trevor had moved on to "Kemi" as the next big thing before his departure. I wonder if he is now extolling the virtues of "Penny" over on Conservative Home these days. I must get my eyes tested too. I read that as 'Trevor had moved on to 'Kermi'. Surely the frog would never support the Tories? Greens surely? EDIT: Beaten to it by oldnat  |
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Post by RAF on May 3, 2024 14:31:47 GMT
The latest unsubstantiated rumour is that the London Mayoral turnout could be as low as 30%.
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