pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 23, 2024 21:34:29 GMT
Another poll conducted after the election was called, below 20% for the first time ever with Techne. Even in Truss's final week they were on 22%. No sign of polls narrowing Sunak's strategic genius in doubt?  |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 23, 2024 21:37:32 GMT
Most expect a mild swing back to the Tories in the campaign which is rationally what you would expect, Why? Rationally, I think I would expect a conservative disaster. Based upon bad polling currently, the complete lack of any swingback over the last year which would be ususal, Con being attacked by reform who have always taken some votes where they have stood seriously, fiasco after fiasco on policies where con are supposed to be strong. Rationally, thats how its been going. But in most places the choice would be to switch to lab. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 23, 2024 21:40:44 GMT
Most expect a mild swing back to the Tories in the campaign which is rationally what you would expect, but could it go the other way. Tory voters see they have no chance after a couple of weeks so start moving to Reform on on the right and to the Lib dems on the centre so the Lib Dems end up with more seats than ecpected and reform end up picking up a few seats as well Reform are very unlikely to win any seats because they have the wrong sort of vote for FPTP. Reform's vote is very evenly spread, just as UKIPs was in 2015 when they won 12.6% of the vote and 1 seat (and that a Tory defector). Maybe they have an outside shot at Boston & Skegness and/or Clacton but I doubt it. I don't see Lee Anderson surviving either. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 23, 2024 21:42:47 GMT
Interesting story from Farmer's Weekly -
Meat smugglers using English vehicles to evade border checks
Criminal gangs are buying English-registered coaches and vans to smuggle large amounts of illegal meat into the country, Farmers Weekly has learned.
Commercial quantities of illegal and diseased meat are entering the UK to be sold into fast-food outlets, pubs, and to “unscrupulous” manufacturers, an online meeting between meat industry representatives and border officials was told on 17 May. Many are not coming here in vehicles with foreign number plates as they realise they are more likely to be stopped and checked
www.fwi.co.uk/news/crime/meat-smugglers-using-english-vehicles-to-evade-border-checks Farmers Weekly was guest publication on Have I Got News For You last week . |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 23, 2024 21:53:27 GMT
Ive told this story before. Mate of mine was on holiday in Scotland and got talking to the assistant in the gift shop, who was just off to university. They got talking about school somehow and he apparently impressed the assistant with his subject knowledge so much the assistant said she just wished he had been her teacher. Gave the impression there was as much of a shortage of good teachers in Scotland as England. Which kinda makes sense if Scotland feels it needs to pay more to try to get some better ones. In england anyway, it strikes me the issue is as much about workload and working conditions as it is pay. There are limits how much extra money can compensate you for poor working conditions, stress, etc. Frequently the idea of employers seems to be just pay more to get more work from one person, but it doesnt really work. I appreciate your point about finite time. Its just that there is a huge difference in what will be achieved in one hour by a bad teacher compared to a good one. I also pointed out that if teachers were being attracted by the grand scenery or other attributes of Scotland so that they had lots of very good teachers, they would hardly be paying better wages than England or advertising expenses paid packages to relocate to Scotland from S England ! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2024 21:58:17 GMT
You have, indeed, told that story before. That you consider that the quality of an entire teaching force across a system can be adequately judged by a random interaction between your pal and a single pupil, says much about the quality of your analytic capabilities - and they are remarkably poor. I also pointed out that if teachers were being attracted by the grand scenery or other attributes of Scotland so that they had lots of very good teachers, they would hardly be paying better wages than England or advertising expenses paid packages to relocate to Scotland from S England ! Maybe they just think it’s the right thing to do. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 23, 2024 22:04:02 GMT
“ Reform UK poses a major threat to the Conservatives in 28 seats, analysis by The Telegraph shows.
YouGov data indicates that Richard Tice’s party is expected to win more than 20 per cent of the vote in a series of constituencies across England’s North and Midlands.
In these areas, Reform UK could deny the Conservatives a win by taking a slice of their support, challenging the party for victory, or leapfrogging the Tories and taking second place.
Unlike in 2019, when the Brexit Party agreed not to run in 317 Tory-held constituencies, Reform will field candidates in every seat in England, Wales and Scotland on July 4.”” Telegraph (who seem quite keen on Reform en ce moment) No offence intended to you, Carfrew, but this is absolute nonsense from the Telegraph. The YouGov MRP is the same one I linked earlier this evening. The link is produced again below, and the vote shares of all those seats where Refuk are on 20% or more are shown about half way down in YG's write-up. yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49061-yougov-mrp-labour-now-projected-to-win-over-400-seatsI wonder if the Telegraph are confusing the shades of blue used by YouGov, because once you realise that the Tory vote is the darker blue dot, it is clear that they are trailing Labour by 30-40 points in most of these seats where Refuk are doing well. The vast majority show a Labour vote larger than Con & Ref combined. By my reading of YouGov's constituency figures for Reform's strongest seats, there is only one where Labour are shown as winning, but the Conservatives could conceivably recover the small deficit by squeezing RefUk. That is South Basildon and East Thurrock in Essex. You might just about make a case out for Ashfield or Bassetlaw, but in each of these the Tories are a good 15 points behind Labour, and would need to take around three-quarters of those currently shown as supporting Refuk. Yeah, it’s possible they might underneath it all be aware of the issue really, e.g. when they go on to say: “ Labour-held Barnsley North and Hartlepool both rank highest for Reform’s expected vote share.
In both seats, the party is polling at 27 per cent, more than twice the projected vote shares of the Conservative candidates – 11 and 13 per cent respectively.
Sir Keir Starmer’s party maintains a more than 20-point polling lead in both seats, however.” (Like I said, they seem quite keen on Reform!) |
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Post by mark61 on May 23, 2024 22:14:55 GMT
Victoria Derbyshire interviewing Richard Holden on Newsnight over Govt Record on immigration, an absolute evisceration. Pointing out their failure to honour any Manifesto commitment on Immigration since 2010. When he brings up their focus on so called Illegal Immigration she responds that 30,000 crossed the Channel in small boats last year and your Govt issued 1.44 million visas in the same period. If that went up on Billboards in every Tory held seat they Probably wouldn't win any seats at the GE!
When you watch Ms. Derbyshire you wonder how Ms. Kuenssberg has the brass neck to keep drawing her salary from the BBC.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 23, 2024 22:17:39 GMT
Thinking about it, that is a 'perfect storm' poll for the Conservatives because of the relatively high Lib Dem number and their own dire result. Put it into EC, even with no tactical voting, and you get: Lab 519, LD 62, Con 34, SNP 12, PC 3, Green 2, RefUk 0. Not what I think will happen, but a reminder that if the Lib Dems can up their percentage a few points the Tories can get horribly squeezed. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2024 22:28:24 GMT
Thinking about it, that is a 'perfect storm' poll for the Conservatives because of the relatively high Lib Dem number and their own dire result. Put it into EC, even with no tactical voting, and you get: Lab 519, LD 62, Con 34, SNP 12, PC 3, Green 2, RefUk 0. Not what I think will happen, but a reminder that if the Lib Dems can up their percentage a few points the Tories can get horribly squeezed. My own forecast might not be so daft after all…… Because I’m still stuck in bed I thought I’d try BBC News. I’d forgotten just how much I dislike the “politics for duffers” approach and how unbelievably irritating Nick Watt is. He reminds me of an over excited schoolboy. Turned off as he still gushed on. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 23, 2024 22:33:34 GMT
Paul
Hope you're on the road to recovery
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Post by eor on May 23, 2024 22:40:51 GMT
“ Reform UK poses a major threat to the Conservatives in 28 seats, analysis by The Telegraph shows.
YouGov data indicates that Richard Tice’s party is expected to win more than 20 per cent of the vote in a series of constituencies across England’s North and Midlands.
In these areas, Reform UK could deny the Conservatives a win by taking a slice of their support, challenging the party for victory, or leapfrogging the Tories and taking second place.
Unlike in 2019, when the Brexit Party agreed not to run in 317 Tory-held constituencies, Reform will field candidates in every seat in England, Wales and Scotland on July 4.”” Telegraph (who seem quite keen on Reform en ce moment) No offence intended to you, Carfrew, but this is absolute nonsense from the Telegraph. The YouGov MRP is the same one I linked earlier this evening. The link is produced again below, and the vote shares of all those seats where Refuk are on 20% or more are shown about half way down in YG's write-up. yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49061-yougov-mrp-labour-now-projected-to-win-over-400-seatsI wonder if the Telegraph are confusing the shades of blue used by YouGov, because once you realise that the Tory vote is the darker blue dot, it is clear that they are trailing Labour by 30-40 points in most of these seats where Refuk are doing well. The vast majority show a Labour vote larger than Con & Ref combined. By my reading of YouGov's constituency figures for Reform's strongest seats, there is only one where Labour are shown as winning, but the Conservatives could conceivably recover the small deficit by squeezing RefUk. That is South Basildon and East Thurrock in Essex. You might just about make a case out for Ashfield or Bassetlaw, but in each of these the Tories are a good 15 points behind Labour, and would need to take around three-quarters of those currently shown as supporting Refuk. No idea what methodology the Telegraph have used to get their numbers, and from what James E and c-a-r-f-r-e-w have said it sounds like the Telegraph is conflating two things that aren't really related - which seats might show the highest RefUK support and which seats they could harm the Tories in. But their headline number seems plausible, even if they've got there by accident. We've seen polling that something like 30% of RefUK VI would vote CON in the absence of a RefUK candidate, so if RefUK are on 12% in GB polling then that's the equivalent of 3.5% onto CON VI if RefUK didn't stand, or in other words would take them from retaining 44% of their 2019 voters to retaining 52% of them. Reducing the swing to LAB by a bit under 2% if you prefer a more UNS measure. Either way, that kind of shift potentially being worth 25-30 seats in the final reckoning seems about right - they just won't be the ones where RefUK got their best vote totals, they'll be the ones where CON lost by so little that the minority of RefUK voters that would have taken CON with a nosepeg if RefUK hadn't stood would have been enough to tip the balance. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2024 22:58:21 GMT
Victoria Derbyshire interviewing Richard Holden on Newsnight over Govt Record on immigration, an absolute evisceration. Pointing out their failure to honour any Manifesto commitment on Immigration since 2010. When he brings up their focus on so called Illegal Immigration she responds that 30,000 crossed the Channel in small boats last year and your Govt issued 1.44 million visas in the same period. If that went up on Billboards in every Tory held seat they Probably wouldn't win any seats at the GE! When you watch Ms. Derbyshire you wonder how Ms. Kuenssberg has the brass neck to keep drawing her salary from the BBC. I literally couldn't agree with you more. Victoria is excellent. Ruthless and forensic, whatever your hue. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,721
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 23, 2024 23:01:06 GMT
No offence intended to you, Carfrew, but this is absolute nonsense from the Telegraph. The YouGov MRP is the same one I linked earlier this evening. The link is produced again below, and the vote shares of all those seats where Refuk are on 20% or more are shown about half way down in YG's write-up. yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49061-yougov-mrp-labour-now-projected-to-win-over-400-seatsI wonder if the Telegraph are confusing the shades of blue used by YouGov, because once you realise that the Tory vote is the darker blue dot, it is clear that they are trailing Labour by 30-40 points in most of these seats where Refuk are doing well. The vast majority show a Labour vote larger than Con & Ref combined. By my reading of YouGov's constituency figures for Reform's strongest seats, there is only one where Labour are shown as winning, but the Conservatives could conceivably recover the small deficit by squeezing RefUk. That is South Basildon and East Thurrock in Essex. You might just about make a case out for Ashfield or Bassetlaw, but in each of these the Tories are a good 15 points behind Labour, and would need to take around three-quarters of those currently shown as supporting Refuk. No idea what methodology the Telegraph have used to get their numbers, and from what James E and c-a-r-f-r-e-w have said it sounds like the Telegraph is conflating two things that aren't really related - which seats might show the highest RefUK support and which seats they could harm the Tories in. But their headline number seems plausible, even if they've got there by accident. We've seen polling that something like 30% of RefUK VI would vote CON in the absence of a RefUK candidate, so if RefUK are on 12% in GB polling then that's the equivalent of 3.5% onto CON VI if RefUK didn't stand, or in other words would take them from retaining 44% of their 2019 voters to retaining 52% of them. Reducing the swing to LAB by a bit under 2% if you prefer a more UNS measure. Either way, that kind of shift potentially being worth 25-30 seats in the final reckoning seems about right - they just won't be the ones where RefUK got their best vote totals, they'll be the ones where CON lost by so little that the minority of RefUK voters that would have taken CON with a nosepeg if RefUK hadn't stood would have been enough to tip the balance. Yeah, I wondered if they were conflating, but then they talked about the 28 seats and there are 28 seats above 20%. The bit I subsequently highlighted in bold suggests they are aware of the point James E made. (But yeah, if you consider all the seats, not just the top 28, it has more to commend it, although… they might like to boost polling in some of those 28 seats?) |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 23, 2024 23:03:00 GMT
Thinking about it, that is a 'perfect storm' poll for the Conservatives because of the relatively high Lib Dem number and their own dire result. Put it into EC, even with no tactical voting, and you get: Lab 519, LD 62, Con 34, SNP 12, PC 3, Green 2, RefUk 0. Not what I think will happen, but a reminder that if the Lib Dems can up their percentage a few points the Tories can get horribly squeezed. My own forecast might not be so daft after all…… Because I’m still stuck in bed I thought I’d try BBC News. I’d forgotten just how much I dislike the “politics for duffers” approach and how unbelievably irritating Nick Watt is. He reminds me of an over excited schoolboy. Turned off as he still gushed on. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2024 23:07:17 GMT
Paul Hope you're on the road to recovery Cheers Steve. Unfortunately I was violently sick over a period of about 12 hours yesterday from about 2pm until 2 am this morning. Still feeling very rough but hopefully over the worst. No idea what the cause was but it was both very painful and really exhausting. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2024 23:12:07 GMT
Thinking about it, that is a 'perfect storm' poll for the Conservatives because of the relatively high Lib Dem number and their own dire result. Put it into EC, even with no tactical voting, and you get: Lab 519, LD 62, Con 34, SNP 12, PC 3, Green 2, RefUk 0. Not what I think will happen, but a reminder that if the Lib Dems can up their percentage a few points the Tories can get horribly squeezed. My own forecast might not be so daft after all…… Because I’m still stuck in bed I thought I’d try BBC News. I’d forgotten just how much I dislike the “politics for duffers” approach and how unbelievably irritating Nick Watt is. He reminds me of an over excited schoolboy. Turned off as he still gushed on. Ain't it the truth. He always comes over very sotto voce, as if imparting some exclusive, incisive pearls of wisdom, but they generally prove to be bland and inconsequential non-starters. I remember him opining a couple of years ago that about 20 CON MPs were on 'flight watch'. Utter tosh. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2024 23:13:38 GMT
Paul Hope you're on the road to recovery Cheers Steve. Unfortunately I was violently sick over a period of about 12 hours yesterday from about 2pm until 2 am this morning. Still feeling very rough but hopefully over the worst. No idea what the cause was but it was both very painful and really exhausting. Sorry you're still suffering, Paul. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,721
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 23, 2024 23:15:26 GMT
“ The Tories would need the biggest turnaround in the polls in British general election history to pull off a shock victory, Britain’s two leading pollsters have warned.
Professor Sir John Curtice and Lord Robert Hayward have both noted that a party has never before come from so far behind in the polls to win a general election.
The biggest bounce so far was Labour under Jeremy Corbyn in 2017 which gained 10 points on Theresa May’s Conservatives but still came 55 seats behind in a hung parliament.
Sir John, who is expected to be a regular on people’s TV screens analysing polls during the election, agreed that there is no historic precedent for a party to come from so far behind.
Currently Labour enjoy a lead of between 18 and 24 points depending on which poll people look at. The Techne UK weekly tracker poll last week had it at 23 points.
Sir John said: “Turnaround in 2017 was 10 points though polls also overestimated the Conservative lead by around another five points.”
But he agreed that if Mr Sunak was to close the gap to get into hung parliament territory it “would dwarf” what happened in 2017.
Lord Hayward, who is a Tory peer, said that the gap is “similar if not worse” to what John Major faced in 1997 when he was defeated by Tony Blair.” www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rishi-sunak-wales-football-barry-b2550303.html |
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Post by mercian on May 23, 2024 23:19:59 GMT
Interesting story from Farmer's Weekly -
Meat smugglers using English vehicles to evade border checks
Criminal gangs are buying English-registered coaches and vans to smuggle large amounts of illegal meat into the country, Farmers Weekly has learned.
Commercial quantities of illegal and diseased meat are entering the UK to be sold into fast-food outlets, pubs, and to “unscrupulous” manufacturers, an online meeting between meat industry representatives and border officials was told on 17 May. Many are not coming here in vehicles with foreign number plates as they realise they are more likely to be stopped and checked
www.fwi.co.uk/news/crime/meat-smugglers-using-english-vehicles-to-evade-border-checks Nasty stuff. One question though to the EU supporters on here, if this stuff is coming in by vehicle then most of it will be coming from EU countries. I had gathered from posts on here that trade and travel to and from the EU had virtually stopped. Doesn't this prove that it hasn't? |
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Post by mercian on May 23, 2024 23:25:57 GMT
You have, indeed, told that story before. I thought that was the purpose of the site? Semi-senile old codgers rambling on about stuff that happened 50 years ago mixed with doom-mongering about the future. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2024 23:26:26 GMT
Illegal stuff never stops.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 23, 2024 23:27:02 GMT
Interesting story from Farmer's Weekly -
Meat smugglers using English vehicles to evade border checks
Criminal gangs are buying English-registered coaches and vans to smuggle large amounts of illegal meat into the country, Farmers Weekly has learned.
Commercial quantities of illegal and diseased meat are entering the UK to be sold into fast-food outlets, pubs, and to “unscrupulous” manufacturers, an online meeting between meat industry representatives and border officials was told on 17 May. Many are not coming here in vehicles with foreign number plates as they realise they are more likely to be stopped and checked
www.fwi.co.uk/news/crime/meat-smugglers-using-english-vehicles-to-evade-border-checks Nasty stuff. One question though to the EU supporters on here, if this stuff is coming in by vehicle then most of it will be coming from EU countries. I had gathered from posts on here that trade and travel to and from the EU had virtually stopped. Doesn't this prove that it hasn't? |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 23, 2024 23:28:43 GMT
mercian
I object to your categorisation of posters on this site as only being "semi" senile!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2024 23:39:38 GMT
I wonder how many of those REFUK voters are unreconstructed Thatcherites who, after Sunak's reprise of Gene Kelly, were confirmed in their dislike of Wets. Well, I obviously wasn't going to miss the cue to post 4 mins, 16 secs of the distillation of pure joy. You also get a bonus in the shape of the legendary song's first appearance, in two-colour Technicolor, to boot, in 1929, with Jack Benny, Joan Crawford and Buster Keaton joining in proceedings. youtu.be/swloMVFALXw?si=1SvQGqYpKWO9x_T_youtu.be/Mh0hqXBXL00?si=tFgUT47A9xhq-5KN |
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Post by mercian on May 23, 2024 23:41:11 GMT
Victoria Derbyshire interviewing Richard Holden on Newsnight over Govt Record on immigration, an absolute evisceration. Pointing out their failure to honour any Manifesto commitment on Immigration since 2010. When he brings up their focus on so called Illegal Immigration she responds that 30,000 crossed the Channel in small boats last year and your Govt issued 1.44 million visas in the same period. If that went up on Billboards in every Tory held seat they Probably wouldn't win any seats at the GE! When you watch Ms. Derbyshire you wonder how Ms. Kuenssberg has the brass neck to keep drawing her salary from the BBC. I've wondered how much of what these interviewers say is semi-scripted - i.e. though they have to respond according to the answers they get, they will have a list of questions and attack lines pre-prepared. So perhaps differences are because of different scriptwriters? I wouldn't be at all surprised if the BBC had multiple teams of those guys. I remember from one (and probably all) recent US presidential elections the BBC actually had 5 different teams out there - BBC1, BBC2, Radio 4, Radio5 and another, maybe World Service? Anyway, a huge waste of money. They could have had one journalist and a cameraman and sound recordist and relayed the material to all the relevant stations. Typical waste of licence-payers money. It should be commercialised post-haste but of course Labour won't do that any more than the Tories did. |
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Post by mercian on May 23, 2024 23:45:41 GMT
My own forecast might not be so daft after all…… Because I’m still stuck in bed I thought I’d try BBC News. I’d forgotten just how much I dislike the “politics for duffers” approach and how unbelievably irritating Nick Watt is. He reminds me of an over excited schoolboy. Turned off as he still gushed on. I'm sure you endured it with your customary sunny attitude. |
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Post by mercian on May 23, 2024 23:46:52 GMT
Paul Hope you're on the road to recovery Cheers Steve. Unfortunately I was violently sick over a period of about 12 hours yesterday from about 2pm until 2 am this morning. Still feeling very rough but hopefully over the worst. No idea what the cause was but it was both very painful and really exhausting. Lay off the homebrew. Seriously I hope you recover soon. I had a severe bout of what turned out to be food-poisoning a year or so ago. I was in hospital for few days. It turned out to be the wife's cooking. I think it was an accident. I suggest you check whether your missus had a read of your will while you were away.  |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 23, 2024 23:47:49 GMT
Waiting lists for hospital treatment hit a new record high in Wales, according to latest official figures
x.com/BBCWalesNews/status/1793638036569313734
I don't particularly blame Llafur for this since, as Wes Streeting accurately pointed out, for the devolved administrations "all roads lead to Westminster" with regard to funding. Much of the rise is irrelevant to whoever happens to be in government in a particular polity. - demographics, covid consequentials, Brexit etc are factors that apply everywhere.
It does, however, explode the myth that politicians like to peddle that, if only their lot were in power, things would be so much better. Unless UKGov can somehow increase funding and staffing, or reduce poverty and its health consequences, the best that any government can do is to select choices that minimise the difficulties. Some do better than others, in that regard.
I've seen Streeting's proposals to increase privatisation in NHS England, but that seems an inadequate answer, at best.
Any Labour partisans on here like to explain why having a Labour UKGov will reduce waiting times across the UK?
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 23, 2024 23:58:33 GMT
I wonder how many of those REFUK voters are unreconstructed Thatcherites who, after Sunak's reprise of Gene Kelly, were confirmed in their dislike of Wets. Well, I obviously wasn't going to miss the cue to post 4 mins, 16 secs of the distillation of pure joy. You also get a bonus in the shape of the legendary song's first appearance, in two-colour Technicolor, to boot, in 1929, with Jack Benny, Joan Crawford and Buster Keaton joining in proceedings. youtu.be/swloMVFALXw?si=1SvQGqYpKWO9x_T_youtu.be/Mh0hqXBXL00?si=tFgUT47A9xhq-5KN |
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