pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2024 11:20:02 GMT
On the current BBC councillor result figures: Labour have gained 20% Lib Dems have gained 19% Con have lost 52% Ind have gained 150% Greens have gained 115% That's an odd way of putting it. Labour started with a lot of seats and the Greens very few so their 20% is massively more than the 115%. If the "PJW is great party" had started with no councillors and somehow managed to win one its percentage increase would be infinity! |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 3, 2024 11:21:23 GMT
On the current BBC councillor result figures: Labour have gained 20% Lib Dems have gained 19% Con have lost 52% Ind have gained 150% Greens have gained 115% That's an odd way of putting it. Labour started with a lot of seats and the Greens very few so their 20% is massively more than the 115%. If the "PJW is great party" had started with no councillors and somehow managed to win one its percentage increase would be infinity! "If the "PJW is great party" had started with no councillors and somehow managed to win one its percentage increase would be infinity!" - It's just the alternative Essex needs! |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2024 11:21:35 GMT
Re Mayoral elections, seems to me that victory margins may be different in some cases from expectations but the view that the West Midlands one is the only one really too close to call was right. Labour sources saying Street has won and are blaming the Gaza effect on their vote. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2024 11:23:27 GMT
That's an odd way of putting it. Labour started with a lot of seats and the Greens very few so their 20% is massively more than the 115%. If the "PJW is great party" had started with no councillors and somehow managed to win one its percentage increase would be infinity! "If the "PJW is great party" had started with no councillors and somehow managed to win one its percentage increase would be infinity!" - It's just the alternative Essex needs! I can assure you it isn't  |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2024 11:28:58 GMT
jibThis is the only time I will address you directly as you still haven't apologised for your absurd accusations that I and another poster were the same person in breach of the forum rules kindly don't refer to my user name in your posts. If you wish to reference any of my posts simply refer to the contents . Alternatively you could apologise.
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Post by shevii on May 3, 2024 11:44:30 GMT
Blackburn result is interesting- although the headline BBC figure of Labour -4 doesn't look too bad for them considering Gaza, I make it 7 independent (Muslim) gains in wards that in 2023 elected Labour councillors. I'm not playing with stats here as clearly some of those 7 were not Labour when they were last fought but it's more relevant to compare to last year to see shifts relating to Gaza. In one Labour ward in 2023 two independents finished above them with an indie taking the seat on a split indie vote (perhaps!).
Mind you I keep forgetting the discussion over gains/losses tallies as the BBC has Green gaining one seat at the expense of Labour but Labour winning overall control of the council (with no other changes listed)- presumably related to defections.
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Post by RAF on May 3, 2024 11:47:40 GMT
Theo Underwood has tweeted that his report of Tory optimism about the London Mayoral contest is based on higher postal votes in Outer London than Inner London.
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Post by shevii on May 3, 2024 11:54:11 GMT
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Post by jayblanc on May 3, 2024 11:54:37 GMT
Rejoin! Even the Lib Dems have given up talking about it (OK....maybe not steve , but....). See any mention here? www.libdems.org.uk/planNot happening, not on any serious political agenda. 2016 was a generational decision and all that. Like I said re-join is not going to happen anytime soon. Re-alignment by stealth so that we eventually end up in a place where we have many of the attributes of membership but without having a say will happen as it makes sense economically, diplomatically and culturally once this ideologically hidebound gvt is gone. What do you feel about that? While immediate rejoining is off the table, I don't think it has been punted as far into the distance as it appears. I strongly expect that return to the EU will be used as a means to fend off either a referendum in Scotland or a border poll in NI. (Or possibly Gibraltar should the situation there get worse) I do expect that in the next couple of years, there will be negotiations to have a better trade deal. Which will end with the UK "reluctantly" rejoining the Customs Union. Which will be the first of a series of "reluctantly" undoing all the damage of Brexit. The EU are certain to make a path to return as easy as possible within the bounds of keeping the EU integral, but that means some strong caveats and demonstration of full cooperation. They still do want the UK back, but it'll be on their terms. It's quite possible that the UK will be expected to enter the Schengen area to demonstrate it's bonafides and commitment. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 3, 2024 11:56:34 GMT
Curtice with a suitably arresting headline in the Telegraph:
Reform might be about to wipe out the Tories
“The Conservative party would have been lucky to have had a 1997-style wipeout. This result may prove terminal
…
The party is so far losing one in two of the seats they have been trying to defend. When all the results are in, it is at risk of suffering the catastrophic 500 losses of council seats that some analysts had predicted.
The party’s vote fell by 32.1 points in Blackpool South, making it the party’s third worst ever performance in a parliamentary by-election. With 16.9 per cent of the vote, its best performance yet, Reform appears to have done much of the damage.
Moreover, in the local elections the Conservative vote fell most heavily in those wards where Reform fielded a candidate. The only silver lining for Tory HQ was that Reform only contested one in six of the wards where there was an election on Thursday. A full slate would have been even more devastating.
Meanwhile, some of the evidence underneath the bonnet of the headlines will particularly worry the party.
First, detailed ward by ward results collected by the BBC suggest that on average support for the party is down on last year’s local elections. That slippage is consistent with the message of the opinion polls that, rather than closing the gap on Labour, the party has actually lost ground over the last twelve months.
Second, the fall in Conservative support is proving to be highest in the party’s heartlands. The better the Conservatives did locally in 2021, that is, when most of the seats being contested on Thursday were last fought, the greater the fall in their support now.
This pattern fits with the evidence of recent MRP polling, which suggested the Conservatives could win even fewer seats in the general election than the 165 to which they fell in 1997.
Third, Labour advanced most strongly by squeezing the Liberal Democrat vote in wards where the Tories were trying to fend off a Labour challenge.
If these patterns persist, it could cost the party dearly in the general election.”
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Post by jayblanc on May 3, 2024 11:57:34 GMT
Theo Underwood has tweeted that his report of Tory optimism about the London Mayoral contest is based on higher postal votes in Outer London than Inner London. This seems mightily optimistic, considering that Labour's ground game strategy has been focused on getting people to register for postal votes. |
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Post by EmCat on May 3, 2024 12:02:17 GMT
Lee Anderson , the former deputy chair of the Conservative party who is now a Reform UK MP, told the Today programme this morning that the result in Blackpool South showed that his party was “here to stay” and “making in-roads”. 6 bob knob said the election results were very bad for his old party, but not his old old party! Has anyone told Lee that Reform are yet to win a single councillor in the 35 Councils that have counted so far? (with 45 declared, and still no Reform) As I see it, they have two options if they want to remain relevant: 1) Make peace with the Conservatives, and fold themselves in, effectively taking over the Tories from the inside (or, for the cynical, completing their internal takeover). Hence (they hope) a significant proportion of Reform supporters will become New Tory ones. 2) Push for even harder separation, hoping that a few Tory MPs will jump ship before the General Election, and thus bringing some of the residual Tory support across too. The problem with 1) is that the Tory brand has been fairly well trashed (by Reform themselves, sometimes), so persuading people that it is now magically non-toxic and ok to vote for is a big ask The problem with 2) is that they haven't managed to turn inherent support into actual candidates. Of course, it is possible that, like UKIP before them, they are not bothered about having actual elected representation, provided they can still get the media attention. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2024 12:03:41 GMT
Liberal democrat gains mounting now at 26 with only 40% counted.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2024 12:06:22 GMT
Theo Underwood has tweeted that his report of Tory optimism about the London Mayoral contest is based on higher postal votes in Outer London than Inner London. This seems mightily optimistic, considering that Labour's ground game strategy has been focused on getting people to register for postal votes. I agree - my experience has been the postal vote is no longer the overwhelmingly Tory thing it was when it was mainly used by the elderly. Much more mixed in recent elections. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2024 12:08:49 GMT
Liberal democrat gains mounting now at 26 with only 40% counted. Have you noticed the the number of Lib Dem councillors elected yesterday is now greater than the number of Conservatives? Remarkable. |
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Post by jib on May 3, 2024 12:11:35 GMT
jib This is the only time I will address you directly as you still haven't apologised for your absurd accusations that I and another poster were the same person in breach of the forum rules kindly don't refer to my user name in your posts. If you wish to reference any of my posts simply refer to the contents . Alternatively you could apologise. I can refer to you steve when I want to. You post here and I can cite your name for allusion of the content without needing to quote. Get over yourself & no need to get your underwear in a twist. |
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Post by alec on May 3, 2024 12:13:52 GMT
RAF - "Theo Underwood has tweeted that.." I need my glasses. Read this as 'The Underworld..
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2024 12:16:05 GMT
Re Mayoral elections, seems to me that victory margins may be different in some cases from expectations but the view that the West Midlands one is the only one really too close to call was right. Labour sources saying Street has won and are blaming the Gaza effect on their vote. Labour now saying this didn't come from them despite it seeming to. Is this the disinformation campaign (perhaps foreign based) that had been threatened or just a quick Labour reverse ferret? |
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,635
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Post by steve on May 3, 2024 12:19:35 GMT
The brexitanian standard position.
"I've lied to/about you, don't expect an apology, it's your fault , get over yourself."
I thought a bit of courtesy might have elicited a slightly less infantile response which would have been positive for the forum.
Sadly as expected it didn't.
Worth a try.
Won't bother again.
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Post by EmCat on May 3, 2024 12:21:20 GMT
Liberal democrat gains mounting now at 26 with only 40% counted. Compared with the Elections-etc model, they would appear to be underperforming: electionsetc.com/2024/05/01/local-election-seat-projections-for-2024/Table 2. Model based forecasts for English local election net seat gains/losses for 2024 ForecastCon -390Lab +320LD +100Others -30Based on last year’s experience, I would expect the Conservatives to do worse than the model suggests, and the Liberal Democrats and Others (mainly Greens) to do better.On the other hand, Rallings and Thrasher (quoted in the same article) have only really quantified the Labour and Conservative changes, with others in the "likely to advance" level “if the Conservatives repeat their poor performance of 2023, when the NEV put them below 30%, they stand to lose up to 500 seats – half their councillors facing election. Labour may make about 300 gains, with the Liberal Democrats and Greens both likely to advance.”
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Post by shevii on May 3, 2024 12:23:42 GMT
Labour sources saying Street has won and are blaming the Gaza effect on their vote. Labour now saying this didn't come from them despite it seeming to. Is this the disinformation campaign (perhaps foreign based) that had been threatened or just a quick Labour reverse ferret? Nothing much wrong with blaming it on Gaza but quite a nasty original quote from the BBC: A senior party source said: "It’s the Middle East, not West Midlands, that will have won [Conservative candidate] Andy Street the mayoralty. Once again Hamas are the real villains." But, as you say, it's been disowned by Labour, although "foreign based disinformation campaign" seems like a conspiracy theory when it seems fairly obvious that someone in Labour with an ear to the BBC has gone off message very badly. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2024 12:24:21 GMT
pjw1961I have indeed it's quite positive for the Lib dems in respect of the forthcoming general election achieving the same vote share of better than 2019 is quite likely now I feel . If course no where near the Lib dems vote share prior to 2010 but the collapsing Tory vote and the rise of refuk brings 60+ seats into range.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2024 12:28:22 GMT
EmCatLib dems gains now approaching half the Labour current level Labour 68 lib dems 30 I'm sure you'll appreciate that I don't see this as a failure.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 3, 2024 12:34:08 GMT
Like I said re-join is not going to happen anytime soon. Re-alignment by stealth so that we eventually end up in a place where we have many of the attributes of membership but without having a say will happen as it makes sense economically, diplomatically and culturally once this ideologically hidebound gvt is gone. What do you feel about that? While immediate rejoining is off the table, I don't think it has been punted as far into the distance as it appears. I strongly expect that return to the EU will be used as a means to fend off either a referendum in Scotland or a border poll in NI. (Or possibly Gibraltar should the situation there get worse) I do expect that in the next couple of years, there will be negotiations to have a better trade deal. Which will end with the UK "reluctantly" rejoining the Customs Union. Which will be the first of a series of "reluctantly" undoing all the damage of Brexit. The EU are certain to make a path to return as easy as possible within the bounds of keeping the EU integral, but that means some strong caveats and demonstration of full cooperation. They still do want the UK back, but it'll be on their terms. It's quite possible that the UK will be expected to enter the Schengen area to demonstrate it's bonafides and commitment. Totally agree and especially that for renewed full membership a big statement of commitment would be needed such as either the single currency or Schengen. I doubt it would be Schengen if only because the Rep. of Ireland is not in it and one of the UK or Ireland joining Schengen would invalidate the CTA that has been a pillar of Anglo-Irish relations since Irish independence. Now you could argue, though it might be delicate to say so, that the only reason Ireland is not in Schengen is because of the UK and the CTA. Therefore if the UK were to join Schengen Ireland could as well but it would be bad optics for that country to be seen to be forced to take that step only because the UK had. In any case I think probably either Schengen or the single currency would likely be too big a mouthful for any British gvt to swallow in the near future at least and so I think some kind of customised, 'associate' membership might end up being devised, perhaps with fewer voting rights and less parliamentary representation. That could also end up being a future template for Ukraine. |
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Post by EmCat on May 3, 2024 12:36:41 GMT
EmCat Lib dems gains now approaching half the Labour current level Labour 68 lib dems 30 I'm sure you'll appreciate that I don't see this as a failure. A gain is a gain, so not a failure at all. One forecaster has a nebulous "will make gains" while another sets quite a high bar (though they admit that their one model has flaws, but not how to tweak the model to reduce those flaws) |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2024 12:37:27 GMT
Labour now saying this didn't come from them despite it seeming to. Is this the disinformation campaign (perhaps foreign based) that had been threatened or just a quick Labour reverse ferret? Nothing much wrong with blaming it on Gaza but quite a nasty original quote from the BBC: A senior party source said: "It’s the Middle East, not West Midlands, that will have won [Conservative candidate] Andy Street the mayoralty. Once again Hamas are the real villains." But, as you say, it's been disowned by Labour, although "foreign based disinformation campaign" seems like a conspiracy theory when it seems fairly obvious that someone in Labour with an ear to the BBC has gone off message very badly. I have no doubt you're right and someone is for the high-jump if they work out who it was. However, the foreign interference thing was a reference to recent warnings in the mainstream press (so probably ultimately from the security services) that the 2024 UK and US elections are both expected to see an organised attempt to influence the results. The threat in the US is clearly the more serious one, as UK foreign policy is pretty bi-partisan anyway. Not so with Trump v Biden. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2024 12:39:14 GMT
EmCat Lib dems gains now approaching half the Labour current level Labour 68 lib dems 30 I'm sure you'll appreciate that I don't see this as a failure. A gain is a gain, so not a failure at all. One forecaster has a nebulous "will make gains" while another sets quite a high bar (though they admit that their one model has flaws, but not how to tweak the model to reduce those flaws) The "Others -30" in that forecast looks particularly improbable - and clearly isn't going to happen. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 3, 2024 12:48:47 GMT
EmCat Lib dems gains now approaching half the Labour current level Labour 68 lib dems 30 I'm sure you'll appreciate that I don't see this as a failure. |
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Post by RAF on May 3, 2024 12:58:24 GMT
Westminster Tories clearly have problems in claiming Houchen or Steet as vindication for their performance or strategy. Both are centrists with a large personal (and highly localised) following.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 3, 2024 13:01:01 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w - "Few days ago, came across a new approach where they bioengineered a plant-bacteria combo to clean air “better than an air purifier.” It’s for cleaning toxins - volatile compounds - out of the air, rather than virii, but every little helps in my view." I increasingly see far UVC lamps as the solution. I really don't think many people (esp those in government, healthcare and public health) appreciate the remarkable advances that have been made in understanding this technology in the last 4 years. It's been shown to be safe, extremely effective and works on both airborne and surface pathogens. The R&D devoted to this has been tiny, compared to the money thrown at vaccines and therapeutics, but even so, it's shown itself to be a clear contender for the next revolution in public health engineering. It remains relatively expensive in terms of capital outlay, but given that it could effectively end human suffering from covid, flu, RSV, TB, and every other airborne disease, with no prospect of pathogens evolution immunity, it seems a good investment to my mind. Even just putting this in schools and healthcare settings would probably be sufficient to drive covid transmission below Rt=1, which would eventually lead to elimination in many areas. In my ideal world, we'd be developing a strategy that paired far UVC, HEPA and ventilation with real time biosensors, which would become the equivalent of the central heating thermostat for the installed safe air technologies. We could basically guarantee that any given indoor space is safe, regardless of who might be infected. Policymakers however are stuck between two stools, on the one hand believing infectious disease is inevitable, and on the other responding by pumping tens of billions into drug research to mop up the consequences. Diverting a little of that to prevention would work wonders I have quite some sympathy with this - sadly prevention isn’t always given the utmost attention even in hospitals, so it may be a while before it becomes ubiquitous. (biggest challenge for me is avoiding infection from my partner as she works in a Petri dish school, but it’ll be ok once she gets used to the airlocks, quarantine and hazmat suit etc.) |
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