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Post by bardin1 on May 2, 2024 10:13:36 GMT
To be fair to graham if no-one has sent you a leaflet then it's quite possible to conclude they are a paper candidate and not really wanting the job. Surely the opposite? But you are right if you get no communication they how are they goign to represent your views |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 2, 2024 10:18:33 GMT
To be fair to graham if no-one has sent you a leaflet then it's quite possible to conclude they are a paper candidate and not really wanting the job. Surely the opposite? But you are right if you get no communication they how are they goign to represent your views Surely a political party does not exist to represent one's views. It has standpoints of it's own based on it's own history, conviction, research and polling and it's up to you as a voter to find an existing party which most closely aligns with your principles not expect to get a party tailored specially for you or your societal group. Certainly no-one should feel ownership of and therefore anger towards a party if in an attempt to become more electable it reaches out to a wider pool than one's 'group'. |
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Post by Mark on May 2, 2024 10:20:40 GMT
To get his attention, try '@ admin' (no space). - Just a thought for Mark - might be time to start a new main thread in the next couple of days for coverage of the elections on 2 May? *** new polling thread alert *** Apologies to you all for the delay in doing this. I had intended the new polling thread to be started 4 or 5 days ago (last weekend). I have been unwell (nothing serious and certainly no need for any "get well soon / hope you are better" type posts) and as a result, have not been here as much as usual recently. I should catch up with everything today. In the meantime, a brand new polling thread...and I will ask that response to the local election results be posted there rather than a separate thread, as decided a little while ago when I asked members how we should post about results and a majority thought it should be kept on the main polling thread. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 2, 2024 10:25:40 GMT
domjg When Faith and I stood for the liberal democrats we were offered the choice of competitive or " paper" wards , we've too much on our hands to dedicate the time and energy we would have wanted to devote as councillors so opted for " paper" in the unlikely event we had won we'd have made provisions to fulfil the role properly. It wouldn't have meant our electorate would have been unrepresented, we would of course have broadly followed the local liberal democrat agenda which we largely agree with anyway.
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Post by bardin1 on May 2, 2024 10:25:40 GMT
Surely the opposite? But you are right if you get no communication they how are they goign to represent your views Surely a political party does not exist to represent one's views. It has standpoints of it's own based on it's own history, conviction, research and polling and it's up to you as a voter to find an existing party which most closely aligns with your principles not expect to get a party tailored specially for you or even your societal group. Certainly no-one should feel ownership of and therefore anger towards a party if in an attempt to become more more electable it reaches out to a wider pool than your 'group'. I agree with you to some extent. However this was in respect of local elections where I think there is a much closer alignment with local issues, and as a result people often vote for candidates on the basis of the candidates views on specific local issues. I would consider voting for other parties in local elections where there was a pressing local issue which I had a strong view on, and that candidate was expressing the same view. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 2, 2024 10:41:10 GMT
Surely a political party does not exist to represent one's views. It has standpoints of it's own based on it's own history, conviction, research and polling and it's up to you as a voter to find an existing party which most closely aligns with your principles not expect to get a party tailored specially for you or even your societal group. Certainly no-one should feel ownership of and therefore anger towards a party if in an attempt to become more more electable it reaches out to a wider pool than your 'group'. I agree with you to some extent. However this was in respect of local elections where I think there is a much closer alignment with local issues, and as a result people often vote for candidates on the basis of the candidates views on specific local issues. I would consider voting for other parties in local elections where there was a pressing local issue which I had a strong view on, and that candidate was expressing the same view. "However this was in respect of local elections where I think there is a much closer alignment with local issues, and as a result people often vote for candidates on the basis of the candidates views on specific local issues" - A very good point. I was reacting more to some of the wider debate on here on Labour's positioning in the run up to the GE. We don't have elections in our district this year (other than for the PCC) so I'm not really in the local election mindset. |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 2, 2024 10:52:27 GMT
"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" (usually attributed to Carl Sagan, but actually long predating him) is always a good maxim. I thought that the Prof was being borderline dishonest in that interview; it's really important for experts not to say things that mislead non-specialists (specialists in the area already know enough to be able to judge claims). When he said a "tentative detection" I was hoping that he meant between 2 and 3 sigma statistical significance not 1 sigma; 5 sigma is accepted as the sort of result that you can put in a scientific paper and 3 sigma as a good indication but ideally needs further measurements - I actually had two 3 sigma results disappear on subsequent measurements so I know it can happen. |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 2, 2024 11:03:24 GMT
Graham, do you have a no junkmail sign on your door? Is there official policy on this from any of the parties (I think you were being semi serious)? I've wondered myself about this one but always put one through anyway as it's not exactly junk as such and no-one told me not to. If I'm delivering at election time I just tell anyone who complains that it's an Election Communication. Actually I find that people with "no junk mail" signs on their doors are still happy to get our leaflets (and I suspect those from other parties); it's the pizza leaflets they probably don't want. |
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Post by bardin1 on May 2, 2024 11:04:37 GMT
"However this was in respect of local elections where I think there is a much closer alignment with local issues, and as a result people often vote for candidates on the basis of the candidates views on specific local issues" - A very good point. I was reacting more to some of the wider debate on here on Labour's positioning in the run up to the GE. We don't have elections in our district this year (other than for the PCC) so I'm not really in the local election mindset. No problem - neither do I! Was just thinking back to mylocal government experience in SW London where localism was a big issue. |
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Post by jib on May 2, 2024 11:08:14 GMT
"Swinney praises Kate Forbes and says he wants her to play 'significant' role in his team" Minister for Cludgies? Yet another juvenile contribution from our resident Lib Dem joker. Another one of your christo-fascist types eh? A sensible move by Forbes - clearly one for the future. |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 2, 2024 11:14:41 GMT
I can't think of anything more pointless than a spoiled ballot in a Council election. I hope it's not a long walk to the Polling Station! I have spoiled my ballot many times. I believe in compulsory voting so it would be hypocritical not to turn up at the polling station. And it can be quite satisfactory spoiling one's ballot creatively even if polling staff and party agents are the only ones to read it. I have spoiled my ballot just once. It was as a result of the unfortunate incident in 2002 when most of our Council candidates were disqualified because we had "Liberal Democrat Focus Team" as our description and while both "Liberal Democrat" and "Focus Team" were allowed descriptions the combination wasn't then on the list of allowed descriptions. So I took a good deal of pleasure in writing "Liberal Democrat Focus Team" on the top of my ballot paper and putting an X next to it, knowing that the Returning Officer who had disqualified us would have to read it out at the count. |
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Post by John Chanin on May 2, 2024 11:21:55 GMT
What a tosser. Surely most grown men will have a driver's licence, or at least an MP should have been aware of the requirement for ID. It was very clearly stated on our polling cards which arrived weeks ago. You often have to send your driving licence to the DVLA for one reason or another. And if you have a passport it may be in your other home (MPs have two). He's not the first person to suddenly realize there's a problem. And if you're under 65 there really aren't any other approved forms of ID. |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 2, 2024 11:30:50 GMT
The ranges are so wide as to mean nothing apart from that Labour will win. Tory 30-211 Labour 351-545 LibDem 19-61 Reform 0-21 etc EDIT: I mistyped Labour's low estimate as 251 not 351. Yes, that's the problem with Electoral Calculus' predictions; those limits are 95% (2 sigma) and it illustrates just how uncertain going from vote share to number of seats is. I hope that seat predictions based on MRP polling will be better, but I wouldn't be surprised if the 2 sigma limits for them are as high as 40-60 seats either side of the median projection for the two major parties. My own gut feeling is that the Labour majority will be over 100 (so >376 MPs), but whether it will be a Blair-sized landslide or a 1931-sized landslide is too difficult to judge. I'm looking forward to more YouGov MRP polls, because at least they have a track record of not being far out (so far). |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 2, 2024 11:49:33 GMT
The ranges are so wide as to mean nothing apart from that Labour will win. Tory 30-211 Labour 351-545 LibDem 19-61 Reform 0-21 etc EDIT: I mistyped Labour's low estimate as 251 not 351. Yes, that's the problem with Electoral Calculus' predictions; those limits are 95% (2 sigma) and it illustrates just how uncertain going from vote share to number of seats is. I hope that seat predictions based on MRP polling will be better, but I wouldn't be surprised if the 2 sigma limits for them are as high as 40-60 seats either side of the median projection for the two major parties. My own gut feeling is that the Labour majority will be over 100 (so >376 MPs), but whether it will be a Blair-sized landslide or a 1931-sized landslide is too difficult to judge. I'm looking forward to more YouGov MRP polls, because at least they have a track record of not being far out (so far). I recall looking at these numbers in some detail a while back and Reform only started to win seats when the Conservative seat share sank to very low levels, so RefUK got c20 when the Tories got c30. The horrific thing was their combined vote share was about 35%, but that sizable body of public opinion was being presented by under 60 GB MPs. Despite my LoC views I would regard such an outcome as an outrageous injustice perpetrated by FPTP (not that I think that will be the actual outcome). |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 2, 2024 11:54:01 GMT
Andrew Marr on Scottish politicsI've really enjoyed reading Andrew Marr since he left the BBC and didn't have to be neutral any longer. He begins his New Statesman article with If we want wisdom on Scotland, we may go to the late Tom Nairn. On the political transformation of his native land, he could be pithy: “As far as I am concerned, Scotland will be reborn when the last minister is strangled with the last copy of the Sunday Post.”
and ends it with But this is democratic politics working. This is how errors are corrected. This is how the softly corrupting effects of being too long in power and too little scared of your opponents are cured. These, in short, are not the mortal agonies of Scottish devolutionary politics but simply its growing pains. It doesn’t stop them being bloody painful. But this too will pass.Amen to that.
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 2, 2024 12:27:56 GMT
I have spoiled my ballot many times. I believe in compulsory voting so it would be hypocritical not to turn up at the polling station. And it can be quite satisfactory spoiling one's ballot creatively even if polling staff and party agents are the only ones to read it. Since 1966, I have voted in every election, local or general, where I have had the vote. (Sometimes I was abroad, at a time when expats did not have the right to vote). I was convinced that Scotland should be an independent country in the late 1960s. At the time the only party actually voicing this was the SNP. But they did not stand in every election. Every time an SNP candidate was missing from the list presented to me, I spoiled my ballot paper by writing across it, in large letters: S N P. Yes, can see the attraction of writing SNP on the ballot: Sortition Now Please in other news, the search for Hobnobs continues… |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 2, 2024 12:44:38 GMT
Yes, can see the attraction of writing SNP on the ballot: Sortition Now Please in other news, the search for Hobnobs continues… Shouldn't you select your biscuits by random drawing of lots? |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 2, 2024 13:51:23 GMT
Yes, can see the attraction of writing SNP on the ballot: Sortition Now Please in other news, the search for Hobnobs continues… Shouldn't you select your biscuits by random drawing of lots? the choice of biscuit is a reserved power, PJ |
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graham
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Post by graham on May 2, 2024 13:57:10 GMT
I have now voted - Labour for Norfolk PCC and spoilt ballot paper for Norwich City Council. No tellers at all - not seen that before. Just rang Norwich Labour HQ asking for details oflocal Committee Room to go and help only to be told there isn't one this year! They are making zero effort.
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Post by leftieliberal on May 2, 2024 14:31:28 GMT
I have now voted - Labour for Norfolk PCC and spoilt ballot paper for Norwich City Council. No tellers at all - not seen that before. Just rang Norwich Labour HQ asking for details oflocal Committee Room to go and help only to be told there isn't one this year! They are making zero effort. Labour gave up using tellers in my area a long time ago, even in wards where they were competing. The theory, I was told, was that if you only have enough resources for one knock-up then you don't need tellers because voters don't mind being called on once on polling day, even if they have already voted. So better to use the resources for knocking-up. If you can do telephone knocking-up, its even easier. One of the big changes has come with computerisation. When I started back in the 1980s we had what we called Shuttleworths, which Labour called Mikado pads (after their MP Ian Mikado) and the Tories Reading pads. Here's the story in Lib Dem Voice. Nowadays everything is online and everyone goes around with smartphones with an app on them that sends the data they collect directly to the Party. So your local Labour party probably have one central location to control polling day and just send out lists of addresses and voters' names for activists to call on. |
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Dave
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Post by Dave on May 2, 2024 15:56:16 GMT
Yes, that's the problem with Electoral Calculus' predictions; those limits are 95% (2 sigma) and it illustrates just how uncertain going from vote share to number of seats is. I hope that seat predictions based on MRP polling will be better, but I wouldn't be surprised if the 2 sigma limits for them are as high as 40-60 seats either side of the median projection for the two major parties. My own gut feeling is that the Labour majority will be over 100 (so >376 MPs), but whether it will be a Blair-sized landslide or a 1931-sized landslide is too difficult to judge. I'm looking forward to more YouGov MRP polls, because at least they have a track record of not being far out (so far). I recall looking at these numbers in some detail a while back and Reform only started to win seats when the Conservative seat share sank to very low levels, so RefUK got c20 when the Tories got c30. The horrific thing was their combined vote share was about 35%, but that sizable body of public opinion was being presented by under 60 GB MPs. Despite my LoC views I would regard such an outcome as an outrageous injustice perpetrated by FPTP (not that I think that will be the actual outcome). Yeah, so would I. But a) f**k ‘em. They’ve dined very well on FPTP - let them see how the other (more-than-) half lives and b) if a proper tonking or two or three or four or maybe more (as the old West Ham song nearly goes) then we might see them become amenable to PR too. |
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Dave
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Post by Dave on May 2, 2024 16:00:37 GMT
Yes, can see the attraction of writing SNP on the ballot: Sortition Now Please in other news, the search for Hobnobs continues… Shouldn't you select your biscuits by random drawing of lots? I favour PR - my current biscuit is 44% custard cream, 22% bourbon, 10% jammy dodger. I can’t work out what the rest of it is - either its composition or its percentage. I just know I won’t be happy until bourbon is under 20%. |
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Dave
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Post by Dave on May 2, 2024 16:09:18 GMT
But not exactly great news as an inheritance for an incoming Labour government either. No, but in a weird way I wonder if that may suit Labour in the long run. I doubt if any voter is expecting Labour to fix the world in five years let alone one or two. The general cynicism about politics and politicians may also help in that respect. The Tories have taught the electorate to expect nothing but bad, even, in the short-term, things not getting worse may well be seen as an improvement. So it may just suit a long term Labour programme if it has time to get its feet under the table, establish a reputation for decent, sound government before maybe three or so years in giving many including the likes of me what we want to see and what our these islands desperately need. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 2, 2024 16:24:23 GMT
Shouldn't you select your biscuits by random drawing of lots? I favour PR - my current biscuit is 44% custard cream, 22% bourbon, 10% jammy dodger. I can’t work out what the rest of it is - either its composition or its percentage. I just know I won’t be happy until bourbon is under 20%. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 2, 2024 16:40:13 GMT
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 2, 2024 18:35:49 GMT
might even feel a tad virtuous with a nice Argentinian Malbec Andy, as some argue that the thicker skins of the grape mean it has more antioxidants than some others. (Though that can be a bit of a rabbit hole…) Where to start with this... Not sure if it was intentional, but "Election Selection" took me right back to those heady, innocent days of school sixth form discos c1976. I went to an all boys grammar, and there was a similar all girls school a quarter of a mile up the road. Fraternisation was not generally encouraged, but there was an officially-sanctioned weekly 'Jazz Club', which enabled us to venture up to mingle with our female counterparts. Little jazz discussion ever ensued, but it was an ideal opportunity for largely innocent, but hormone-fuelled relationships to form. As we all in turn began hitting our 18th birthdays, there were birthday parties virtually every week where these budding relationships developed. Anyhoo, to cut a long story short, "Election Selection" sounds remarkably like what the last dances at such soirées were colloquially described as among our group. Moving swiftly on, a nice Malbec, particularly Argentinian, has much to recommend it for me - delicious, reliable, good value and a wonderful accompaniment for a nice sirloin. Not sure about c-a-r-f-r-e-w 's more considered scientific analysis of its properties, all I know is that it's very good stuff, and ideal for an evening's election results viewing, providing one is careful. It's all too easy for things to get a little messy if sensible pacing is not strictly adhered to. Happened to have an Argie Malbec in, which is handy, and have now procured some Hobnobs. Regarding school dances, going to boarding school meant there wasn’t much of that. Back home in the hols was where one got to have fun (though I used to sneak home in term time quite a bit under the radar…) |
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Post by mercian on May 2, 2024 19:50:31 GMT
Can they even sail on the water? You're going to have to help me with this one. Sorry it looks as though my quote of Danny's didn't come through properly. He had made a humorous comment about how effective our aircraft carriers would be in sailing across Ukraine to attack Russia. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 2, 2024 19:51:55 GMT
EDIT : Though, as Mrs Nat pointed out, he probably did it deliberately, as he's annoyed that no one pays any attention to him now.
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Post by mercian on May 2, 2024 20:00:04 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w "One in 10 COVID-19 patients, even those with a mild infection, suffer from a range of symptoms such as fatigue, brain fog, shortness of breath, heart palpitations, and depression. " I thought that was just normal. 😁 Well it may have become “normal” for quite a number, as there are various things in modern life that can cause brain fog, not just Covid. Trying to comprehend some of the more convoluted posts on here would be one of them. |
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Post by mercian on May 2, 2024 20:13:43 GMT
Peak Base Rate was 17% under Thatcher at the end of 1979.'Real' interest rates were much lower in that by Spring 1980 RPI inflation was running at 22%. It was certainly an interesting time to have a variable rate mortgage.  |
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