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Post by nickpoole on May 1, 2024 18:35:49 GMT
So Reigate & Banstead - should I be voting Green?
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Post by crossbat11 on May 1, 2024 18:44:27 GMT
West mids Mayoral average...nail biter @electionmapsuk West Midlands Mayoral Election Weighted Polling Average: Parker (LAB): 40.3% (+0.5) Street (CON): 39.6% (-9.1) Williams (RFM): 7.1% (+4.9) Harper-Nunes (GRN): 6.1% (+0.3) Virk (LDM): 3.6% (+0.1) Yakoob (IND): 3.2% (New) Changes w/ 2021 Election Supporting Mercian's hypothesis, Yakoob could be a bit of a spoiler for Labour in this election. I was in Lye yesterday (a long story) and I saw quite a few Yakoob posters in the shop windows of the many Asian run stores in the town. |
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Post by John Chanin on May 1, 2024 18:51:50 GMT
I have always voted Labour in Norwich at local elections and had every intention of doing so this week. I find the failure to deliver a single leaflet thoroughly discourteous and for the first time ever will be spoiling my ballot paper. From the outside that appears a petulant response! There could be many reasons why a leaflet did not reach you, most would involve no discourteous treatment whatsoever. Why would you not exercise your democratic rights (some, including me, would say responsibility) to at least seek to influence the effect on your local services? I have a general policy not to vote for any party that can't manage as a minimum to provide me with a leaflet saying who their candidate is and why I should vote for them. They are obviously not serious. |
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Post by John Chanin on May 1, 2024 18:54:53 GMT
I have always voted Labour in Norwich at local elections and had every intention of doing so this week. I find the failure to deliver a single leaflet thoroughly discourteous and for the first time ever will be spoiling my ballot paper. I can't think of anything more pointless than a spoiled ballot in a Council election. I hope it's not a long walk to the Polling Station! I have spoiled my ballot many times. I believe in compulsory voting so it would be hypocritical not to turn up at the polling station. And it can be quite satisfactory spoiling one's ballot creatively even if polling staff and party agents are the only ones to read it. |
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Post by EmCat on May 1, 2024 19:10:58 GMT
Labour leads by pollster 26 People Polling 25 Ipsos 25 YouGov 23 Redfield & Wilton 22 WeThink 21 Techne 20 Deltapoll 19 More in Common 18 Survation 18 Savanta 16 Opinium Interesting to compare Labour leads on the 26th January,certainly no sign of swing back 27 YouGov 25 PeoplePolling 25 WeThink 23 Redfield & Wilton 20 Techne 16 Deltapoll 15 More In Common 14 Savanta 14 Opinium Picture the scene... PM's Adviser: Good News PM! The trends are moving in the right direction! PM: Oh that is good news. Got any examples? More importantly, you're not going to swap the "then" and "now" figures like you did last time? A: Um... PM: You _did_ swap over the two sets of figures. Again. A: Well... Maybe I did. But YouGov have shown you have reclaimed 2 points. WeThink is even better - a 3 point catch up! PM: Since they both had some of the largest Labour leads, that's not exactly encouraging. What about the other companies? A: Oh, is that the time? Must be – PM: What about the other polling companies? A: Let's be honest PM. You preferred it when I mixed up the "previous" and "current" figures... |
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Post by bardin1 on May 1, 2024 19:18:16 GMT
barbara As a youngster we never had any leaflets or canvassers or God squad Joe's at the door , I've never worked out why. View Attachment if that's your house it explains a lot, Steve |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 1, 2024 19:46:06 GMT
A Leafleteer's Tale (from "Redditch Tales", by Geoffrey Chaucer)I completed the last 100 or so houses today in my 320 plus household distribution patch in Redditch and, as with the previous roads, streets and closes that I covered on Monday and Tuesday, I was very much venturing into what would normally be solid Tory territory. Peaceful, owner occupied suburbia. Manicured hedges and gardens, mainly detached houses, some quite large, and the sense of comfortable affluence all around. If you lived in these neighbourhoods, I thought, it would be easy to feel insulated from some of the vicissitudes being visited upon society at large. Maybe, below this veneer, something is now stirring though. I didn't get to talk to many people, and it wasn't really within my brief to do so anyway, but I did have a few impromptu conversations with householders/voters and these were quite illuminating. As someone campaigning for Labour in these sorts of areas, it's easy to feel a little defensive and on your guard for occasionally hostile reactions. I had been told though, by the Labour candidate contesting the Tory held council seat of Headless Cross and Oakenshaw, that "people were being much nicer" than they had been in the past and, thankfully, that's what I found too. My style is non-proselytising anyway and, by and large self-deprecating too. This reflects my personality and and comes naturally. It tends to go down quite well too, I find. A couple of anecdotes to this effect. I approached the driveway of one large detached house and as I was about to post the two leaflets through the door, the owner, a lady in her 60s I'd guess, opened it before I got there. I said, " Good morning, I'm just dropping off some local election leaflets on behalf of the Labour Party. You aren't obliged to read them at all!" She smiled and said, "Don't worry, I will and thank you very much." We bade each other an affable farewell and exchanged platitudes about the pleasant Spring sunshine. Bonhomie can be contagious. At another house, again just as I was about to post the leaflets through the door, the owner drew up in the car. He was a gentleman in his 70s. I repeated my standard verbal introduction and he said, quite enthusiastically, that he would definitely read the leaflets and thanked me very much for delivering them. What does this say? Probably not very much beyond an encouraging lack of animosity and anti-Labour sentiment. No posters on display again, but I did meet a Tory leafleteer on my rounds. A sign of some sort of political life, I thought. We approached each other tentatively, rather like wary duellists, but, when we met, had a jocular exchange and wished each other well on our respective ways. A very English sort of electioneering, this. In terms of the political science and psephology of the contest, I can report that canvassing returns have been encouraging for Labour in the town and that our resident statistician, the election agent Phil Berry, reports that the data results are better than last year; and that wasn't a bad year at all for Labour in Redditch in terms of local council results. The one worry bead is the redrawn ward boundaries and while the charge of gerrymandering may be a little over the top, the changes have benefitted (or should benefit) the Tories. This has queered the pitch in terms of calling some of the results with any great degree of confidence. My sense from all this, however, is that I think a good night awaits the long suffering Labour Party in Redditch tomorrow night. 
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Post by shevii on May 1, 2024 20:03:30 GMT
Are YouGov reporting Norwich as to close to call because of they are expecting high levels of spoiled ballot papers? Let's not forget Stats for Lefties is standing in Norwich for the Greens tomorrow :-) |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2024 20:48:09 GMT
I have always voted Labour in Norwich at local elections and had every intention of doing so this week. I find the failure to deliver a single leaflet thoroughly discourteous and for the first time ever will be spoiling my ballot paper. I haven't had a single leaflet from any party in the 11years I've lived here. I still know who to vote for. How do you reconcile your belief in the teachings of Jesus Christ with your oft expressed lack of tolerance and understandng of others? Just asking as an atheist Graham isn’t just holier than thou Barbara, he’s holier than everyone. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 1, 2024 20:56:45 GMT
Galloway is not a good person, hard to believe any one on the left can support this toxic bigot
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 1, 2024 21:23:13 GMT
Galloway is not a good person, hard to believe any one on the left can support this toxic bigot |
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Post by kay9 on May 1, 2024 21:25:39 GMT
I can't think of anything more pointless than a spoiled ballot in a Council election. I hope it's not a long walk to the Polling Station! I have spoiled my ballot many times. I believe in compulsory voting so it would be hypocritical not to turn up at the polling station. And it can be quite satisfactory spoiling one's ballot creatively even if polling staff and party agents are the only ones to read it. Since 1966, I have voted in every election, local or general, where I have had the vote. (Sometimes I was abroad, at a time when expats did not have the right to vote). I was convinced that Scotland should be an independent country in the late 1960s. At the time the only party actually voicing this was the SNP. But they did not stand in every election. Every time an SNP candidate was missing from the list presented to me, I spoiled my ballot paper by writing across it, in large letters: S N P. |
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Post by mercian on May 1, 2024 21:29:40 GMT
Very interesting. So wimpy slender men are lefties and square-jawed robust men are more right-wing. Who'd a thunk it? That's right, all those square jawed but inexplicably pinched faced, wobbly pensioners propping up the Tories here🙂 And have you seen the state of those who attend Trump rallies? What we do know is that those who are left leaning tend to be more educated, independent of thought and more comfortable with the demographic reality around them whereas those on the right are angsty sorts who are easily scared, ie by a few destitute people on a boat, the wrong shaped fruit or the Polish language and want to go back to their childhoods.. Highly amusing. It's Remainers who want to turn back the clock and fail to accept the new world. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 1, 2024 21:34:00 GMT
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 1, 2024 21:35:39 GMT
That's right, all those square jawed but inexplicably pinched faced, wobbly pensioners propping up the Tories here🙂 And have you seen the state of those who attend Trump rallies? What we do know is that those who are left leaning tend to be more educated, independent of thought and more comfortable with the demographic reality around them whereas those on the right are angsty sorts who are easily scared, ie by a few destitute people on a boat, the wrong shaped fruit or the Polish language and want to go back to their childhoods.. Highly amusing. It's Remainers who want to turn back the clock and fail to accept the new world. There is no new world, or if there is it's even more important to belong to a powerful trading block not less. British gvts of any stripe are going to have to accept that and row back brexit in the immediate years to come. |
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Post by jib on May 1, 2024 21:36:26 GMT
I haven't had a single leaflet from any party in the 11years I've lived here. I still know who to vote for. How do you reconcile your belief in the teachings of Jesus Christ with your oft expressed lack of tolerance and understandng of others? Just asking as an atheist Graham isn’t just holier than thou Barbara, he’s holier than everyone. Even you? That's quite an achievement. Well done Graham, you've ascended to the peak. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 1, 2024 21:39:31 GMT
I have good news for crossbat11 . With the local elections tomorrow, unsurprisingly a lot of local by-elections have been scheduled for the same day - 71 in all I believe - so I will quietly draw a veil over the matter and leave them disappear into the anonymity of the mass of voting taking place. Of course, if steve wants to note all the victories for the home team, or mercian would like to point out Labour aren't doing as well as the polls suggest, then I will leave that to them! |
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Post by mercian on May 1, 2024 21:41:35 GMT
pete It's lunacy the U.S. is on the cusp of some very troubling times . It was interesting also looking at that discussion among swing voters in N.C.that whilst all of the participants thought Trump should be held legally accountable vote his actions and wouldn't vote for him if convicted ( two of them did in 2020), they also concluded that his trial and conviction could actually encourage his base. There seems to be a huge subset of Americans who apparently are quite enamoured with the idea of a far right deranged vindictive christofascist dictatorship. The implications for us all if it happens are horrifying. There is one crumb of comfort. His stance on NATO (i.e. You're on your own if you don't increase defence spending) has added to Biden's struggle to get aid to Ukraine and is already starting to have an effect on Continental European countries. I understand that some are already starting to increase such spending. It will be a good thing if the European countries become less reliant on the US for military defence. That is until they turn on each other as usual  . |
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Post by matt126 on May 1, 2024 21:49:38 GMT
A lot of analysis will be done of the elections which will mean very little. The mayor elections will be personnel popularity contestsand turnout will likely be very low. especially with the police and crime commissioners where no council seats being contested in most the country.
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 1, 2024 21:51:11 GMT
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on May 1, 2024 21:55:06 GMT
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Post by mercian on May 1, 2024 21:55:25 GMT
Can they even sail on the water? |
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Post by mercian on May 1, 2024 21:57:59 GMT
I fear that when Mercian was discussing sheepmeat trade figures he had another one of his "Chico Hamilton Wembley goal" moments when factual verification deserts him and he descends into the realms of fanciful imagination. Of course, as his wont, he may instead just be trying to pull the wool over our eyes again. I did actually post a link and quoted figures from that. However I was tired and may have muddled up the detail, but the basic point was correct IMO. |
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Post by mercian on May 1, 2024 22:02:59 GMT
Policymakers however are stuck between two stools, on the one hand believing infectious disease is inevitable, and on the other responding by pumping tens of billions into drug research to mop up the consequences. Diverting a little of that to prevention would work wonders They probably don't yet have enough investments or cronies and relatives with investments in the companies that could implement the technology. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 1, 2024 22:15:31 GMT
"Of course, if steve wants to note all the victories for the home team"
I'll give that one a miss thanks have a fence I painted today that needs watching.
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Post by mercian on May 1, 2024 22:24:41 GMT
How are the mighty fallen! "As we celebrate 20 years in the EU, a fierce debate is taking place in Great Britain caused by the World Bank’s forecast that income per capita will be higher in Poland than in the UK in 2025. And I promise this: on the 25th anniversary, Poles will be wealthier than the British. It’s better to be in the EU!" Donald Tusk. But enduring brexiteers won't notice or care, I suppose. I'm all right, Jack. The 'fierce debate' has passed me by I'm afraid. If the Poles are doing well good luck to them. |
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Post by mercian on May 1, 2024 22:28:05 GMT
What happens when you introduce really fucking stupid legislation that can do nothing but harm. View AttachmentThen you send out useless Eustice to lie about it. I used to like Brian Cox. I do an amaaazing imitation. |
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2024 22:28:47 GMT
Might just be me being a thicko, Batty, but I couldn't see a headline relating to Blackpool South among the myriad articles on offer from that link. |
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Post by mercian on May 1, 2024 22:29:57 GMT
Interesting video of the detention of the sword wielding individual in London. While some might see this as a violent incident what struck me is if I'd been a young officer on the scene back in the mid 1980's my choices would have been to shoot him with my firearm or risk serious injury trying to physically restrain him. I'd have shot him but I'm glad these officers didn't have to make that decision. youtu.be/EBuueYWCle4?si=lPjxRNv6kQMZUc3mHad this been in Germany he would probably have been shot, that's what's happened in similar cases there with someone threatening others with a weapon like this. In the US without a doubt I would have thought. It would save a lot of money. Cheaper than sending to to prison or the looney bin for donkey's years. |
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Post by mercian on May 1, 2024 22:35:02 GMT
Our fascist regime appear to think a video featuring people being dragged from their homes pending forced rendition is good news. As they are illegal immigrants, isn't this just the police arresting criminals? What's wrong with that? I thought it was their job. |
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