neilj
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Post by neilj on May 2, 2024 6:33:51 GMT
Galloway is not a good person, hard to believe any one on the left can support this toxic bigot I watched that, an it seemed perfectly reasonable to me. All he said was that the normal thing all around the world is for a family unit to consist of a father, mother and children. Other relationships exist and should be treated with respect, but they are not the norm and he didn't want his children taught that they are equal. That's surely just stating basic facts. He also said that if the other types of relationships became the norm the human race would die out in a couple of generations. That's a bit of an exaggeration IMO but hardly toxic bigotry. Being told you're not normal isn't the same as not being the average Imagine you're a young person in school who's gay. Do you really think it would be pleasant for them to be told they are not normal. Perhaps their parent(s) are gay, to be told they're not normal, they're family is not normal As to the human race dying out, it hasn't in the millennia we have been here and this may come as a shock to you, but homosexuality has been around that long. It's just another stupid argument from a nasty bigot |
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Post by alec on May 2, 2024 6:46:48 GMT
mercian - "They probably don't yet have enough investments or cronies and relatives with investments in the companies that could implement the technology." I think that's actually a very valid point. The safe air sector encompasses multiple technologies (inc building and architecture) and lacks a single focal point, with the associated economic and political heft. Unlike the pharma industry, it doesn't pump millions into political donations and is not well represented in terms of policy forums etc.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 2, 2024 7:00:34 GMT
Yougov, one for Dave as a special treat on polling day Labour lead at 26 points in this week's YouGov poll for The Times CON 18 (-2) LAB 44 (-1) LIB DEM 10 (+1) REF UK 15 (+2) GRN 8 (+1) Fieldwork 30 April - 1 May |
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Post by johntel on May 2, 2024 7:02:24 GMT
Thank you for your reasoned reply. Much preferable to oldnat 's insulting patronising. EDIT: I see that about the last 6 posts have been by me because I've been catching up. Time to stop.  |
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Post by thylacine on May 2, 2024 7:08:40 GMT
Yougov, one for Dave as a special treat on polling day Labour lead at 26 points in this week's YouGov poll for The Times CON 18 (-2) LAB 44 (-1) LIB DEM 10 (+1) REF UK 15 (+2) GRN 8 (+1) Fieldwork 30 April - 1 May Parity for RefUK and Tories by June ? |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 2, 2024 7:09:07 GMT
Supporting Mercian's hypothesis, Yakoob could be a bit of a spoiler for Labour in this election. I was in Lye yesterday (a long story) and I saw quite a few Yakoob posters in the shop windows of the many Asian run stores in the town. You should have let me know. Lye's not far from me. You could have bought me that pint.  Anyway, what do you call a Chinaman who lives between Halesowen and Stourbridge? Yo Min Li. (Yo'm in Lye - You are in Lye) In my youth, I drove an old banger( a Renault 6TL) with the registration LYE 347K. I was playing cricket at Lye CC one day when one of the locals, noticing me by my car, made me an offer for the numberplate. It wasn't a generous one, not that you'd expect one from a Yam Yam, and I turned him down. He noticed a Villa sticker in the car rear window and muttered some local football rivalry derived obscenity and departed. Interesting game that day. Lye CC shared the ground with Lye FC, so it was a poor man's Bramall Lane in some respects. I made 99, given out LBW by our own umpire. I'd given him a lift to the game that day. An awkward journey home ensued! |
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Post by jimjam on May 2, 2024 7:19:57 GMT
Neil, I think Chris Curtis of Opinium and formerly YG is involved with Labour Together who are recruiting a polling related post at present for 6 months.
Whilst we might query some methodology, as we are wont to do, I believe the Labour Together polls will be bona-fide.
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Post by EmCat on May 2, 2024 7:29:34 GMT
Yougov, one for Dave as a special treat on polling day Labour lead at 26 points in this week's YouGov poll for The Times CON 18 (-2) LAB 44 (-1) LIB DEM 10 (+1) REF UK 15 (+2) GRN 8 (+1) Fieldwork 30 April - 1 May Parity for RefUK and Tories by June ? I sometimes wonder whether there are some within the Conservative party who want that outcome. There have already been mutterings* about a large number of Tory MPs about to jump ship to Reform. Jumping now might not help their re-election prospects, but jumping when both parties are neck and neck may do so. However, I suspect it is their hubris that has convinced themselves that Reform has a stronger brand affiliation for the non-politically aware public. *ok, the mutterings seem to have come from some people like Arron Banks, so not necessarily a reliable source; more a self-publicising one. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 2, 2024 7:35:06 GMT
I still doubt Reform would get 15 in a General Election, but if Farage enters the fray who knows.
I certainly think in some seats it will eat into the tory vote and allow others to win
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on May 2, 2024 7:49:25 GMT
Yougov, one for Dave as a special treat on polling day Labour lead at 26 points in this week's YouGov poll for The Times CON 18 (-2) LAB 44 (-1) LIB DEM 10 (+1) REF UK 15 (+2) GRN 8 (+1) Fieldwork 30 April - 1 May You’re a good man Neil 😊 In all seriousness, margin of error and all that, but even so, 18%! Especially with Reform on 15. This is killing the Tories. And throughout it all, the Labour figures refuse to fall below 40% - their glass cellar floor for the GE I wonder? Summer election, my arse. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 2, 2024 7:53:10 GMT
neiljJust for fun I put 18% each for the Tories and refuk through electoral calculus. 36% of the vote you might have thought around 220 seats between them. Nope 22 in total a third of the number as the lib dems with a third of the votes, all 22 are Tories. Labour on around 40% win 85% of the seats. Fptp at its finest, absolutely no relationship to votes cast except for the first time ever for the Lib dems. Mind you that result would be genuinely hysterical couldn't happen to nicer people than the regime and refukers.
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graham
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Post by graham on May 2, 2024 7:56:01 GMT
News item this morning that the US FED will not be reducing interest rates, indeed is contemplating raising them again, because of inflation in the US. Since the principle policy, albeit unstated, of the Bank of England (and indeed other central banks) is to match US interest rates so as to stabilise the value of their currency, this makes it a lot more likely there will be no interest rate cuts in the UK until this policy changes. Ironic how the UK has tied its interest rate to the US one...shame brexit didnt make us independant but rather more locked to the US. shame we had to push up our interest rates so much when actually our economy didnt justify it, just to match the US and stop the pound collapsing. It is indeed a bit bonkers Danny, but it’s the standard right-wing way: to bear down on inflation by controlling the supply of money via interest rates. Monetarism. If you raise interest rates and therefore reduce borrowing, you reduce the amount of money sloshing about in the economy, and then people have less money to buy stuff, which means there is less demand for things and prices come down. The EU do it too. The problem with it of course is that raising the cost of money can make things more difficult for business and consumers. If people can buy less stuff, then of course, businesses can sell less stuff, and they get into trouble. And if you get inflation in a recession, the dreaded “stagflation”, then it’s even worse because you raise interest rates at a time when people and businesses are struggling, when they might really need to borrow money, making things even harder. The more left-wing approach to inflation, is instead to act to lower the price of goods directly, and reduce inflation that way. To act to ease the burden, not increase it. One way of doing this is by subsidy*, to lower the price of the inflated goods, which is in fact, what we did at the height of the recent energy crisis, subsidising energy, since energy was causing a lot of the inflation. (We could’ve gone further than we did with this, as France did, for example, but then France have a bit more control over their energy). Because of the energy subsidy, it put a lid on inflation, and we didn’t have to raise interest rates as high as we might have. Back in the 70s when energy prices got very inflated, interest rates rose as high as 18.5% if I recall correctly under Thatcher, which was absolutely devastating for business, particularly manufacturing** as it tends to have to borrow money upfront to buy materials before they make something to sell. Even under Labour in the 70s though, interest rates rose pretty high. So we have the irony, that the Tories recent response to the energy crisis was actually more left-wing than Labour’s response to energy inflation in the oil crisis of the 70s. (Although of course, the Tories were simply following herd-like the policy of others in the EU, as they did with furlough during Covid). * the right don’t tend to be keen on this, esp. state subsidy, as they are not keen on state involvement. They prefer an independent central bank raising interest rates. The pain this causes has become electorally difficult, however ** this of course, as Alan Budd, Thatcher’s chief economist at the time reflected, may not have entirely been an accident, as raising costs for manufacturing during a recession, was a handy way of breaking the unions. Albeit at a cost of a chunk of the economy. (Or at least a way of breaking the working-class unions. Middle-class unions and professional associations were rather less affected). Peak Base Rate was 17% under Thatcher at the end of 1979.'Real' interest rates were much lower in that by Spring 1980 RPI inflation was running at 22%. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 2, 2024 8:10:56 GMT
Yougov, one for Dave as a special treat on polling day Labour lead at 26 points in this week's YouGov poll for The Times CON 18 (-2) LAB 44 (-1) LIB DEM 10 (+1) REF UK 15 (+2) GRN 8 (+1) Fieldwork 30 April - 1 May You’re a good man Neil 😊 In all seriousness, margin of error and all that, but even so, 18%! Especially with Reform on 15. This is killing the Tories. And throughout it all, the Labour figures refuse to fall below 40% - their glass cellar floor for the GE I wonder? Summer election, my arse. That >40% VI figure for Labour has been baked in for two years now. This poll of polls average graph shows this clearly:- www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/ |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 2, 2024 8:13:17 GMT
The projected national vote share derived from today's local council elections results will be interesting.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 2, 2024 8:17:10 GMT
All he said was that the normal thing all around the world is for a family unit to consist of a father, mother and children. Other relationships exist and should be treated with respect, but they are not the norm Hmm. That is of course after 2000 years of christian indoctrination. Which was adopted as the state religion in order to assist in controlling populations. Homosexuality obviously creates some sort of reproductive advantage, otherwise it simply wouldnt exist. The human penis seems designed to increase your chances of fertilising in situations of multiple partners. We all used to be nomads, and we all used to share spaces far more than in our curiously isolated modern existence. Humans have a tendency to serial pair bonding, but they are pretty much designed to be versatile to all options. |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 2, 2024 8:18:50 GMT
… Because of the energy subsidy, it put a lid on inflation, and we didn’t have to raise interest rates as high as we might have. Back in the 70s when energy prices got very inflated, interest rates rose as high as 18.5% if I recall correctly under Thatcher, which was absolutely devastating for business, particularly manufacturing** as it tends to have to borrow money upfront to buy materials before they make something to sell. Even under Labour in the 70s though, interest rates rose pretty high. So we have the irony, that the Tories recent response to the energy crisis was actually more left-wing than Labour’s response to energy inflation in the oil crisis of the 70s. (Although of course, the Tories were simply following herd-like the policy of others in the EU, as they did with furlough during Covid). …
Peak Base Rate was 17% under Thatcher at the end of 1979.'Real' interest rates were much lower in that by Spring 1980 RPI inflation was running at 22%. 17% was it? Still very high. (Of course, the oil price fell considerably after, facilitating big falls in inflation and cuts in interest rates, and leading to the global boom Thatch benefited from. But by then it was job done: the destruction of a chunk of the manufacturing economy with cuts and interest rates, and the loss of working class union power along with it. Further eroded by maintaining high levels of unemployment to drive down wages and keep capital happy. An era of McJobs beckoned…) |
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Post by James E on May 2, 2024 8:29:19 GMT
The projected national vote share derived from today's local council elections results will be interesting. PNV from the May 2023 Local Elections was: Lab 35% Con 26% LD 20% The norm is for the LDs to outperform their polling by 8-10 points, with a similar underperformance by Labour (when they doing well). The Tories might be expected to get around their current Westminster polling average of low-to-mid 20s. It should help them that there are so few RefUK candidates. So I'd expect similar to 2023 for Lab and LDs this time, and the Tories just a bit lower. [11:30am - If Labour achieve less than a 12% lead, we can expect the usual suspects in the Tories' client media claiming that this would not be enough for an overall majority, per UNS. I imagine we'll be hearing this by about this time tomorrow.] |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 2, 2024 8:30:22 GMT
mercian - "They probably don't yet have enough investments or cronies and relatives with investments in the companies that could implement the technology." I think that's actually a very valid point. The safe air sector encompasses multiple technologies (inc building and architecture) and lacks a single focal point, with the associated economic and political heft. Unlike the pharma industry, it doesn't pump millions into political donations and is not well represented in terms of policy forums etc. If your 'safe air' idea worked. it would do so only imperfectly. It might slow epidemics, greatly reduce cases in total, but eventually a pathogen would mutate and get around it. and then we would need the drugs like mad. Your idea doesnt replace drug companies, it actually reqwuires us to keep them in business creating vaccines and dugs against the huge epidemics which will inevitably occur if you try to keep cases very low. The choice is many mild cases (think common cold) or fewer severe cases, with the fewer severe cases all occurring at the same time and affecting much of the population (as per covid). The common cold as we experience it is actually the goal aimed at by most of the medics trying to manage the covid epidemic. 'flattening the peak'. |
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Post by shevii on May 2, 2024 8:35:35 GMT
I watched that, an it seemed perfectly reasonable to me. All he said was that the normal thing all around the world is for a family unit to consist of a father, mother and children. Other relationships exist and should be treated with respect, but they are not the norm and he didn't want his children taught that they are equal. That's surely just stating basic facts. He also said that if the other types of relationships became the norm the human race would die out in a couple of generations. That's a bit of an exaggeration IMO but hardly toxic bigotry. Not that I've seen more than tweet clips of the interview but if your quote is correct he's saying that gay people are not equal to heterosexual people- why should they not be equal or in what sense are they not equal? He's also tending towards the conspiracy theory of what is taught in schools in sex education where it is suggested that LGBT is "promoted" in schools. That's far from the truth, but it is certainly part of a rounded education to mention gay sex and it is good safeguarding to not have children ashamed of any sexual feelings they are developing, hide their sexual orientation, or be treated differently because of it. The idea that everyone becomes gay because of teaching in schools is ridiculous and if anything the problem is still on the other side where public figures can be blackmailed or simply unhappy because they feel peer pressure to be what he calls "normal". The more educated and open we are on a range of issues, on anything from sex to embarrassing medical conditions that you don't want to be treated for or admit to, the happier we are likely to be as a society. As for the human race dying out in a couple of generations- what's not to like? :-) |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 2, 2024 8:49:03 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on May 2, 2024 9:11:37 GMT
neilj Obviously no other stupid ideas involved. Attachments:
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Post by alec on May 2, 2024 9:13:51 GMT
Danny - "If your 'safe air' idea worked. it would do so only imperfectly. It might slow epidemics, greatly reduce cases in total, but eventually a pathogen would mutate and get around it" No it wouldn't. Anyone thinking that a non-viable viral particle can mutate is just being completely thick. Like, has cholera mutated to maintain routine spread since we invented sewers?
You really are grasping here Danny. Rarely have I come across someone so heavily invested in idiocy before.
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Post by nickpoole on May 2, 2024 9:24:38 GMT
So Reigate & Banstead - should I be voting Green? Well I've voted now. |
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Post by nickpoole on May 2, 2024 9:25:23 GMT
You really are grasping here Danny. Rarely have I come across someone so heavily invested in idiocy before.
Did you two not get the memo? |
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Post by moby on May 2, 2024 9:37:48 GMT
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Post by shevii on May 2, 2024 9:47:55 GMT
To be fair to graham if no-one has sent you a leaflet then it's quite possible to conclude they are a paper candidate and not really wanting the job. Yes there can be valid reasons in safe seats to focus on marginal areas and enough of a local awareness of an existing councillor who is known to the ward by general levels of activity and work in the ward- especially for areas where there are local elections 3 years out of 4. It's also valid to register a vote for a paper candidate anyway to indicate general support for a party, but I don't think there is much wrong with his headline statement of not voting for someone who hasn't sent a leaflet round even if I would not personally take that view. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 2, 2024 9:56:48 GMT
"Swinney praises Kate Forbes and says he wants her to play 'significant' role in his team"
Minister for Cludgies?
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steve
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Post by steve on May 2, 2024 10:07:02 GMT
So one " failed"asylum seeker takes a bung and free housing for five years and voluntarilyboards a commercial flight cost to the uk overall around £250,000 and
761 asylum seekers arrive by small boats on the same day , the highest this year.
Rwanda had agreed to accept an initial cohort of 5,700 asylum seekers under the separate forced rendition scheme over 5 years.None of course have gone and the home office has lost track of around 4000 of those they'd earmarked for rendition.
All going to plan then
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 2, 2024 10:12:44 GMT
Not often I agree with Aaron Banks 😀
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 2, 2024 10:13:28 GMT
But not exactly great news as an inheritance for an incoming Labour government either. |
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