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Post by mercian on May 1, 2024 22:51:44 GMT
See, the "hostile environment" works! Asylum seekers crossing from UK to Ireland are doing so because the Conservatives have made the UK an unpleasant place to be, while Ireland is seen as hospitable and efficient.
Perhaps, a cheaper and more effective way to reduce migrants to the UK would be to insist that they have to stay, and there's no way out!
I wonder if the Irish are regretting insisting on an open border? I must admit, I thought the traffic would be the other way - i.e. It would presumably be easy to get a ferry from France to it's fellow EU country and then they could just walk into Northern Ireland. Quite amusing to see the reverse happening.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 1, 2024 22:55:13 GMT
Our fascist regime appear to think a video featuring people being dragged from their homes pending forced rendition is good news. As they are illegal immigrants, isn't this just the police arresting criminals? What's wrong with that? I thought it was their job. Are the police in England arresting asylum seekers as criminals? Here, at least, the detentions are conducted by Border Force.
If you are correct, though that seems unlikely, those arrested will then appear in court, charged with a specific offence under English Criminal Law. What do you think such an offence would be?
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Post by mercian on May 1, 2024 22:58:02 GMT
The ranges are so wide as to mean nothing apart from that Labour will win. Tory 30-211 Labour 351-545 LibDem 19-61 Reform 0-21 etc EDIT: I mistyped Labour's low estimate as 251 not 351.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 1, 2024 22:59:43 GMT
See, the "hostile environment" works! Asylum seekers crossing from UK to Ireland are doing so because the Conservatives have made the UK an unpleasant place to be, while Ireland is seen as hospitable and efficient.
Perhaps, a cheaper and more effective way to reduce migrants to the UK would be to insist that they have to stay, and there's no way out!
I wonder if the Irish are regretting insisting on an open border? I must admit, I thought the traffic would be the other way - i.e. It would presumably be easy to get a ferry from France to it's fellow EU country and then they could just walk into Northern Ireland. Quite amusing to see the reverse happening. Like so many who share your stance, you demonstrate remarkable ignorance about reality. Those polities in the Common Travel Area are not members of Schengen - which, itself, is not an "EU" arrangement.
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Post by mercian on May 1, 2024 23:13:07 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w"One in 10 COVID-19 patients, even those with a mild infection, suffer from a range of symptoms such as fatigue, brain fog, shortness of breath, heart palpitations, and depression. " I thought that was just normal. 😁
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Post by jib on May 1, 2024 23:16:19 GMT
For Mercian's benefit, the UK and Ireland form a common external border for people "CTA", a sort of mini equivalent of Schengen. Ireland isn't part of Schengen.
For goods and livestock and pets etc, the EU rules apply.
The asylum seekers are free in theory to travel within the CTA, although they may struggle to get across on the Ferry from Wales to Ireland as there are EU customs border checks at Rosslare / Dublin, hence the Northern Ireland issue as there are no checks there between UK / NI and Ireland.
Asylum seekers can't travel from France to Ireland without a travel document, which they presumably can within the Schengen zone.
Given that Schengen isn't an EU thing, it may make sense for the UK and Ireland to join it in the future, as there obvious advantages and non-EU countries are already members.
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Post by mercian on May 1, 2024 23:18:27 GMT
West mids Mayoral average...nail biter @electionmapsuk West Midlands Mayoral Election Weighted Polling Average: Parker (LAB): 40.3% (+0.5) Street (CON): 39.6% (-9.1) Williams (RFM): 7.1% (+4.9) Harper-Nunes (GRN): 6.1% (+0.3) Virk (LDM): 3.6% (+0.1) Yakoob (IND): 3.2% (New) Changes w/ 2021 Election Supporting Mercian's hypothesis, Yakoob could be a bit of a spoiler for Labour in this election. I was in Lye yesterday (a long story) and I saw quite a few Yakoob posters in the shop windows of the many Asian run stores in the town. You should have let me know. Lye's not far from me. You could have bought me that pint. Anyway, what do you call a Chinaman who lives between Halesowen and Stourbridge? Yo Min Li. (Yo'm in Lye - You are in Lye)
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 1, 2024 23:20:40 GMT
For Mercian's benefit, the UK and Ireland form a common external border for people "CTA", a sort of mini equivalent of Schengen. Ireland isn't part of Schengen. For goods and livestock and pets etc, the EU rules apply. The asylum seekers are free in theory to travel within the CTA, although they may struggle to get across on the Ferry from Wales to Ireland as there are EU customs border checks at Rosslare / Dublin, hence the Northern Ireland issue as there are no checks there between UK / NI and Ireland. Asylum seekers can't travel from France to Ireland without a travel document, which they presumably can within the Schengen zone. Given that Schengen isn't an EU thing, it may make sense for the UK and Ireland to join it in the future, as there obvious advantages and non-EU countries are already members. The CTA isn't just a UK/Ireland arrangement. The other members of the CTA are the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands.
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Post by EmCat on May 1, 2024 23:24:32 GMT
The ranges are so wide as to mean nothing apart from that Labour will win. Tory 30-211 Labour 251-545 LibDem 19-61 Reform 0-21 etc I wouldn't say the predictions mean nothing - I think it is the first time that Reform have a prediction for any seats at the high level. Previously, they have had a range of Zero to zero. Others have pointed out that, particularly in FPTP elections, there is a tipping point where the percentage voting for a particular party is such that, instead of "a percentage point here or there won't make much difference", it has moved to "that particular percentage share now makes for a huge difference in result". It looks as though Reform are now around that tipping point level.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 1, 2024 23:29:53 GMT
Now, there's a good point I hadn't considered - though since both my MSP and MP are called Gibson, I have reused my plastic "SNP Gibson" signs for many electoral cycles.
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Post by graham on May 1, 2024 23:30:38 GMT
In what way am I being intolerant here? I was a Labour activist in this area from 1983 - 1996 and know how exceptionally good the party's organisation was here even in the very dark days of the 1980s. It is almost beyond belief that today at a time when Labour is striding ahead in the polls the organisation has clearly collapsed -with no posters to be seen anywhere and leaflets not having been delivered to parts of the ward. Admittedly it has become a Labour v Green contest with the latter having prevailed over the last three years at City Council elections. The Green first elected in 2021 is up for re-election and the failure to seriously challenge him is likely to mean near certain defeat in this ward at next year's County Council elections. I fear Labour has now lost this ward for years to come and that any future recovery will need the Greens to lead the City Council for a period. Subsequent disillusionment with their performance might then pave the way to win back these seats - as occurred in Brighton. Something similar happened post 2002 when the LDs briefly led a minority administration here - though this ward remained comfortably in Labour hands. The intolerance is your disproportionate response to not receiving a leaflet. A more tolerant person would have said: 1. perhaps they are working really hard but there are just not enough of them OR 2. perhaps they are targetting more marginal areas OR 3. well I would have liked a leaflet but it doesn't make any difference to my voting for them OR 4. Well I'm voting for them anyway so they've saved the money on my leaflet OR 5. Well I guess I'm out of touch with modern life at my grand old age of 70 and nowadays there are probably better and more cost effective ways to reach voters OR 6. Perhaps they're saving money for the GOTV acativities ....... Or any other number of more charitable thoughts than the immediate one of 'me, me, me' I don't recall Jesus saying that. Utter Hogwash! I am talking about my vote - not yours or one belonging to anyone else for that matter. I am afraid you have gone to great lengths to highlight your own ignorance of how elections are conducted by well organised party machines.
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Post by mercian on May 1, 2024 23:32:23 GMT
Galloway is not a good person, hard to believe any one on the left can support this toxic bigot I watched that, an it seemed perfectly reasonable to me. All he said was that the normal thing all around the world is for a family unit to consist of a father, mother and children. Other relationships exist and should be treated with respect, but they are not the norm and he didn't want his children taught that they are equal. That's surely just stating basic facts. He also said that if the other types of relationships became the norm the human race would die out in a couple of generations. That's a bit of an exaggeration IMO but hardly toxic bigotry.
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Post by mercian on May 1, 2024 23:37:35 GMT
What a tosser. Surely most grown men will have a driver's licence, or at least an MP should have been aware of the requirement for ID. It was very clearly stated on our polling cards which arrived weeks ago.
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Post by mercian on May 1, 2024 23:41:58 GMT
As they are illegal immigrants, isn't this just the police arresting criminals? What's wrong with that? I thought it was their job. Are the police in England arresting asylum seekers as criminals? Here, at least, the detentions are conducted by Border Force.
If you are correct, though that seems unlikely, those arrested will then appear in court, charged with a specific offence under English Criminal Law. What do you think such an offence would be?I have no idea, I'm not a lawyer. But as they are illegal immigrants that suggests to me that they have done something against the law.
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Post by mercian on May 1, 2024 23:44:28 GMT
I wonder if the Irish are regretting insisting on an open border? I must admit, I thought the traffic would be the other way - i.e. It would presumably be easy to get a ferry from France to it's fellow EU country and then they could just walk into Northern Ireland. Quite amusing to see the reverse happening. Like so many who share your stance, you demonstrate remarkable ignorance about reality. Those polities in the Common Travel Area are not members of Schengen - which, itself, is not an "EU" arrangement.I didn't mention Schengen. You're just making stuff up. Are you trying to say that no-one's allowed to go from France to Ireland?
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Post by mercian on May 1, 2024 23:46:55 GMT
For Mercian's benefit, the UK and Ireland form a common external border for people "CTA", a sort of mini equivalent of Schengen. Ireland isn't part of Schengen. For goods and livestock and pets etc, the EU rules apply. The asylum seekers are free in theory to travel within the CTA, although they may struggle to get across on the Ferry from Wales to Ireland as there are EU customs border checks at Rosslare / Dublin, hence the Northern Ireland issue as there are no checks there between UK / NI and Ireland. Asylum seekers can't travel from France to Ireland without a travel document, which they presumably can within the Schengen zone. Given that Schengen isn't an EU thing, it may make sense for the UK and Ireland to join it in the future, as there obvious advantages and non-EU countries are already members. Thank you for your reasoned reply. Much preferable to oldnat 's insulting patronising. EDIT: I see that about the last 6 posts have been by me because I've been catching up. Time to stop.
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Post by isa on May 1, 2024 23:53:19 GMT
The thought of sustaining myself during a long night of the Emily, Alistair and Rory show on celery and beetroot, prods me closer to the Election Selection. My dear old granddad's homemade beetroot wine bore no resemblance to a nice Malbec. might even feel a tad virtuous with a nice Argentinian Malbec Andy, as some argue that the thicker skins of the grape mean it has more antioxidants than some others. (Though that can be a bit of a rabbit hole…) Where to start with this... Not sure if it was intentional, but "Election Selection" took me right back to those heady, innocent days of school sixth form discos c1976. I went to an all boys grammar, and there was a similar all girls school a quarter of a mile up the road. Fraternisation was not generally encouraged, but there was an officially-sanctioned weekly 'Jazz Club', which enabled us to venture up to mingle with our female counterparts. Little jazz discussion ever ensued, but it was an ideal opportunity for largely innocent, but hormone-fuelled relationships to form. As we all in turn began hitting our 18th birthdays, there were birthday parties virtually every week where these budding relationships developed. Anyhoo, to cut a long story short, "Election Selection" sounds remarkably like what the last dances at such soirées were colloquially described as among our group. Moving swiftly on, a nice Malbec, particularly Argentinian, has much to recommend it for me - delicious, reliable, good value and a wonderful accompaniment for a nice sirloin. Not sure about c-a-r-f-r-e-w's more considered scientific analysis of its properties, all I know is that it's very good stuff, and ideal for an evening's election results viewing, providing one is careful. It's all too easy for things to get a little messy if sensible pacing is not strictly adhered to.
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Post by eor on May 2, 2024 0:01:06 GMT
Little bit of voting news from the U.S. In New York 26th congressional district there was a special election to replace retiring Democrat Brian Higgins, it's a strong democrat area and the result: Timothy M. Kennedy Democrat 46,527 68.2% Gary Dickson Republican 21,685 31.8% Wasn't surprising it was however 5% up on the 2022 result for the Democrats and reduced the slender margin for the republicans in the house to just 1. After the 2022 vote the republicans led 222-213. The House margin isn't quite as slender as that implies - it's currently 217-212 with six vacancies, which will become 217-213 when Kennedy is seated. The figure of 1 comes from the US habit of counting seats above the majority point, rather than seats above all the other parties like we would in the UK. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_members_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives#VacanciesThree more vacancies will be filled in the coming weeks, the first of which is certain to return a Republican (it's the run-off for Kevin McCarthy's old seat in California and is between two Republicans) and the others very likely to as they are districts won in 2022 with >60% and >70% of the vote, so notwithstanding any further immediate departures (on either side) then by mid-June it'll very likely be 220-213. Still completely chaotic in practice but very similar to what it was after the last election.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 2, 2024 0:06:12 GMT
Thank you for your reasoned reply. Much preferable to oldnat 's insulting patronising. EDIT: I see that about the last 6 posts have been by me because I've been catching up. Time to stop. Don't take it personally. I am equally contemptuous of those on "my side" of the various political spectrums, who can't be arsed to to get some basic understanding of reality, before opining on matters they don't comprehend - which is why I seldom post on the huge number of issues that I don't really understand (unless it raises a smile).
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Post by isa on May 2, 2024 0:08:13 GMT
Can they even sail on the water? You're going to have to help me with this one.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 2, 2024 5:51:40 GMT
News item this morning that the US FED will not be reducing interest rates, indeed is contemplating raising them again, because of inflation in the US. Since the principle policy, albeit unstated, of the Bank of England (and indeed other central banks) is to match US interest rates so as to stabilise the value of their currency, this makes it a lot more likely there will be no interest rate cuts in the UK until this policy changes.
Ironic how the UK has tied its interest rate to the US one...shame brexit didnt make us independant but rather more locked to the US. shame we had to push up our interest rates so much when actually our economy didnt justify it, just to match the US and stop the pound collapsing.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 2, 2024 5:52:05 GMT
From Labour Together, maybe accusations of bias, but it falls within current voting trends 'NEW Westminster Voting Intention Here is a final snapshot of the national mood ahead of local elections tomorrow. Polling conducted in-house by Labour Together. Lab 44 Con 22 Ref 13 LDM 10 Green 6 Other 6 9,403 GB adults, 19-29th April 2024' Tables here t.co/0vOkiqKe3N
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steve
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Post by steve on May 2, 2024 5:52:37 GMT
"Originally, the Schengen treaties and the rules adopted under them operated independently from the European Union. However, in 1999 they were incorporated into European Union law by the Amsterdam Treaty, while providing opt-outs for the only two EU member states that had remained outside the Area: Ireland and the United Kingdom"
There are countries out with the European union that are in Schengen by special treaty Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Iceland.
Sadly Brexitania isn't .
Schengen allows complete visa free movement between members with no border controls except during emergencies such as during the pandemic. The arrangements apply to eu citizens and those of the non European union members. It doesn't apply to third party nationals such as brexitanians or asylum seekers.
While undoubtedly the arrangements make it easier for non member state citizens to pass across borders they have no right under schengen to do so.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 2, 2024 6:01:42 GMT
Another item about the numbers of lords aligned with which parties. They said conservatives have about 270 compared to labour 170, and the government has been busy appointing more conservative peers as fast as it can. its arguable they have had some recent problems trying to get legislation through the lords, and thats why they have been trying to push up their representation to about 1/3 of all peers (quite a lot are unaffiliated, and prresumably quite a few too old to attend). However, if they have been having problems with the largest block, it suggests labour will have real difficulties only 2/3 as many as con have now.
Interesting then that lab might need to appoint 200 peers if they win the next election. This sort of inflation in membership will eventually bring the house completely into disrepute and require reform despite the parties refusing to contemplate a proper, proportional and democratic reform. It seems very likely the rather quiescent lords will kick off as soon as labour starts legislating, an interesting contrast if it happens.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 2, 2024 6:05:25 GMT
Danny There are also around 100 lib dems peers , normally they vote in a more progressive manner than Labour, for example they didn't cave on the Rwanda forced rendition bill.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 2, 2024 6:08:55 GMT
a dispute has arisen over the boats being used by assylum seekers crossing the channel. Apparently Ukraine has asked if it can have their boats. The UK government insists they are unseaworthy and must be destroyed. Ukraine needs small boats to get troops and supplies across the Dnieper river to its troops on the Russian side. Apparently the Uk government insists the boats are just too dangerous for Ukrainian troops to use!
Seems likely that if they made it across the channel, they can make it across a river, where their biggest risk is going to be being spotted by russians and shot at. I wonder if the Uk government feels it would harm their propaganda attacks on the people organising the boats across the channel, if they admit that actually they ARE seaworthy. The news stories we have been hearing also suggest that a number of those dying crossing the Channel are doing so because of interventions by authroities trying to stop them, so they will be trying very hard to blame it on the boats, not their interventions.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 2, 2024 6:12:05 GMT
Danny There are also around 100 lib dems peers , normally they vote in a more progressive manner than Labour, for example they didn't cave on the Rwanda forced rendition bill. indeed, they got a mention, said they were about 10%, which might be about right in terms of public support. But obviously they are almost entirely powerless to influence their own numbers or change that percentage if they managed significant success. Any refuk representation, since they seem to have about 15% public support?
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 2, 2024 6:15:45 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w "One in 10 COVID-19 patients, even those with a mild infection, suffer from a range of symptoms such as fatigue, brain fog, shortness of breath, heart palpitations, and depression. " I thought that was just normal. 😁 Well it may have become “normal” for quite a number, as there are various things in modern life that can cause brain fog, not just Covid.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 2, 2024 6:27:13 GMT
News item this morning that the US FED will not be reducing interest rates, indeed is contemplating raising them again, because of inflation in the US. Since the principle policy, albeit unstated, of the Bank of England (and indeed other central banks) is to match US interest rates so as to stabilise the value of their currency, this makes it a lot more likely there will be no interest rate cuts in the UK until this policy changes. Ironic how the UK has tied its interest rate to the US one...shame brexit didnt make us independant but rather more locked to the US. shame we had to push up our interest rates so much when actually our economy didnt justify it, just to match the US and stop the pound collapsing. It is indeed a bit bonkers Danny, but it’s the standard right-wing way: to bear down on inflation by controlling the supply of money via interest rates. Monetarism. If you raise interest rates and therefore reduce borrowing, you reduce the amount of money sloshing about in the economy, and then people have less money to buy stuff, which means there is less demand for things and prices come down. The EU do it too. The problem with it of course is that raising the cost of money can make things more difficult for business and consumers. If people can buy less stuff, then of course, businesses can sell less stuff, and they get into trouble. And if you get inflation in a recession, the dreaded “stagflation”, then it’s even worse because you raise interest rates at a time when people and businesses are struggling, when they might really need to borrow money, making things even harder. The more left-wing approach to inflation, is instead to act to lower the price of goods directly, and reduce inflation that way. To act to ease the burden, not increase it. One way of doing this is by subsidy*, to lower the price of the inflated goods, which is in fact, what we did at the height of the recent energy crisis, subsidising energy, since energy was causing a lot of the inflation. (We could’ve gone further than we did with this, as France did, for example, but then France have a bit more control over their energy). Because of the energy subsidy, it put a lid on inflation, and we didn’t have to raise interest rates as high as we might have. Back in the 70s when energy prices got very inflated, interest rates rose as high as 18.5% if I recall correctly under Thatcher, which was absolutely devastating for business, particularly manufacturing** as it tends to have to borrow money upfront to buy materials before they make something to sell. Even under Labour in the 70s though, interest rates rose pretty high. So we have the irony, that the Tories’ recent response to the energy crisis was actually more left-wing than Labour’s response to energy inflation in the oil crisis of the 70s. (Although of course, the Tories were simply following herd-like the policy of others in the EU, as they did with furlough during Covid). * the right don’t tend to be keen on this, esp. state subsidy, as they are not keen on state involvement. They prefer an independent central bank raising interest rates. The pain this causes has become electorally difficult, however (as shevii has pointed out before IIRC, this kind of subsidy might be considered a more liberal-left approach; a more traditional left-wing approach might be to have state control of energy so that they can directly lower the price of energy, rather than subsidising the private sector - maybe he can clarify if I have it wrong?) ** this of course, as Alan Budd, Thatcher’s chief economist at the time reflected, may not have entirely been an accident, as raising costs for manufacturing during a recession, was a handy way of breaking the unions. Albeit at a cost of a chunk of the economy. (Or at least a way of breaking the working-class unions. Middle-class unions and professional associations were rather less affected).
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 2, 2024 6:28:21 GMT
Can they even sail on the water? Took me a moment to wonder what you were referring to. The carriers have suffered a number of breakdowns, including what looks like a fundamental mistake in their design in terms of the alignment of the propellor shaft, which needed major correction. This all smacks of cutting corners on construction costs. There may be other issues affecting service reliability going forward. We cannot afford enough aircraft to equip them, so in that sense no, they cannot sail even on water. We cannot afford enough escort ships to guarantee their safety in an actual military situation where they might be attacked, so in that sense no they cannot sail to war on behalf of the UK, only as part of someone elses fleet, most likely the US. So we bought them a couple of extra carriers, how amazing for the UK!
The navy as a whole does not have enough sailors to man all its ships. That isnt because of headline numbers being cut, but because they cannot recruit enough people to fill the posts. Suggests pay is too low. Some ships have been laid up because of this, further reducing available ships to creat a useful force for an actual conflict.
The irony is that the last conservative administration (Thatcher/Major) gave up on large carriers because they were too expensive. But then the relative recovery of the Uk economy under labour encouraged lab to order the carriers. Which con insisted on continuing despite the 2008 crash having happened, presumably confident that a conservative administration would see a quick economic recovery. Whereas of course things went from bad to worse and brexit put the tin hat on it.
The next government will have to decide what to do about massive defence underfunding which has hollowed out our capability to fight a war. Ships which cannot sail, soldiers with no stocks of ammunition. Con have promised much more spending, but hardly any will occur before the next election so it will be just one of the many demands for more cash facing that next government. In many ways con have lost all hope for this election, but are instead trying to make things as difficult as possible for the next government.
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