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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2023 0:06:32 GMT
BBC reporting LAB 'confident' of taking Tamworth. |
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Post by mercian on Oct 20, 2023 0:13:55 GMT
Greens have won a local by-election in Warndon.
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Post by RAF on Oct 20, 2023 0:14:26 GMT
LDs say Labour has won Mid Beds. Nadine Dorries's sulk over not getting a peerage may have cost the Tories one of their safest seats in the South East. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 20, 2023 0:25:22 GMT
Suggestions Labour have won Mid Beds by over 3000
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2023 0:32:07 GMT
Sky reporting that 'sources' have told John Craig they think LAB might have won Mid-Beds. by 3,000 votes. I just can't see it, but if they have...
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Post by peterbell on Oct 20, 2023 0:38:01 GMT
Peter Kyle saying Mid Beds is looking promising. As Lab have been reticent to talk about the possibility of winning so far, this sounds like a confident statement
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Post by peterbell on Oct 20, 2023 0:44:18 GMT
BBC correspondent saying that the mood in Tamworth has moved towards a Lab victory. If Lab can win both seats then the Tories should give up now. We need a general election, especially when the Tories have MPs like Andrew Bowie who is talking absolute tripe on BBC.
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Post by joeboy on Oct 20, 2023 1:08:53 GMT
Suggestions Labour have won Mid Beds by over 3000 If that's right the unthinkable has happened! Shades of Ashfield 1977, except the other way round and the Tories only barely made it by a few hundred votes in Ashfield. I think the Tories are truly looking into the abyss here. Foot could win 200 odd seats in 1983 on 27% of the vote, bolstered, in those days, by a swathe of ultra safe seats in the North and Scotland. I'm not sure the Tories can do that on 25-27% of the vote in 2024 if tactical voting is widespread. They could be struggling for three figures, as mad as that sounds. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2023 1:10:27 GMT
Surprised to see that, despite the higher majority in Mid-Beds, (nearly 25k!), the swing required to take the seat, (c19%), is actually lower than that required in Tamworth, (c21%). And both are lower than LAB actually achieved in Selby and Ainsty (c23%).
Just saying. |
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Post by peterbell on Oct 20, 2023 1:39:37 GMT
Tamworth - Lab candidate looking very happy as the results are about to be announced.
Tory candidate has gone missing!!!
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Post by peterbell on Oct 20, 2023 1:43:55 GMT
Lab take Tamworth by about 1,300 votes
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2023 1:45:45 GMT
Tamworth result:
LAB win by 1300.
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Post by ptarmigan on Oct 20, 2023 1:47:15 GMT
Tory candidate didn't look happy. I wondered if he was hiding in a fridge. I thought Lab might win by more than that but a win is a win.
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Post by peterbell on Oct 20, 2023 1:47:30 GMT
Well done Batty
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 20, 2023 1:49:02 GMT
Not as good a Labour result as achieved 1997 - 2010. Not overly impressive despite the swing.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2023 1:55:19 GMT
Not as good a Labour result as achieved 1997 - 2010. Not overly impressive despite the swing. 23.9% swing per Sky. Possibly best since WW2? Not too dusty. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 20, 2023 1:58:59 GMT
A less impressive Labour win than the party achieved at three elections here 1997 - 2010. A bit underwhelming really. The Tories polled 41% compared with just 37% in 2005. Compared with 2005 it actually represents a small swing to the Tories!
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2023 2:05:11 GMT
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Post by joeboy on Oct 20, 2023 2:11:47 GMT
A less impressive Labour win than the party achieved at three elections here 1997 - 2010. A bit underwhelming really. The Tories polled 41% compared with just 37% in 2005. Compared with 2005 it actually represents a small swing to the Tories! A win is a win Graham. Labour doesn't need Tamworth to be a majority government but now Lib Dems and Greens have seen the lay of the land Labour has a fighting chance there at the GE. |
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Post by peterbell on Oct 20, 2023 2:12:30 GMT
Candidates seem to be assembling for an announcement in mid Beds
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 20, 2023 2:14:42 GMT
A less impressive Labour win than the party achieved at three elections here 1997 - 2010. A bit underwhelming really. The Tories polled 41% compared with just 37% in 2005. Compared with 2005 it actually represents a small swing to the Tories! A win is a win Graham. Labour doesn't need Tamworth to be a majority government but now Lib Dems and Greens have seen the lay of the land Labour has a fighting chance there at the GE. But it implies that Labour has failed to recover all the ground lost since 2005 in Tamworth. |
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Post by peterbell on Oct 20, 2023 2:17:00 GMT
Lab take mid Beds with over 1,000 majority
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Post by ptarmigan on Oct 20, 2023 2:18:17 GMT
No doubt about it, that's a very impressive win for Lab.
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 20, 2023 2:22:58 GMT
No doubt about it, that's a very impressive win for Lab. A much more impressive result than Tamworth despite the lower swing. - if only because Labour has no history of winning here. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2023 2:24:12 GMT
Mid Beds. result:
LAB win by over 1,000. Remarkable.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2023 2:34:57 GMT
Two excellent victories for LAB, including one which has been Tory since 1931. The sort of swings to LAB that are as rare as rocking horse droppings.
Brown trousers in Conservative Campaign Headquarters this evening?
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Post by moby on Oct 20, 2023 2:50:04 GMT
A less impressive Labour win than the party achieved at three elections here 1997 - 2010. A bit underwhelming really. The Tories polled 41% compared with just 37% in 2005. Compared with 2005 it actually represents a small swing to the Tories! A highly selective view given recent history and how Keir Starmer has changed things around from the catastrophic defeat in 2019. This was a big brexit area and had become a very safe Tory seat. |
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Post by thylacine on Oct 20, 2023 2:53:52 GMT
Two excellent victories for LAB, including one which has been Tory since 1931. The sort of swings to LAB that are as rare as rocking horse droppings. Brown trousers in Conservative Campaign Headquarters this evening? Interesting, especially in Tamworth that even with the Tory march right they still bled to parties to the right of them. |
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Post by steve on Oct 20, 2023 2:57:44 GMT
Congratulations to Labour excellent win in both by elections.
Mid Beds showed its entirely possible for both the labour and lib dems vote to increase significantly and still deliver the tories a kicking , while Tamworth on a low turnout and with no chance for the lib dems showed willingness to vote tactically.
Mid Beds proved that it was that very unusual beast a three horse race with all three parties ending up within 11% of each other.
It's fortunate these are rare.
Can we now put the vote lib dem and get Tory bollocks to bed
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Post by neilj on Oct 20, 2023 4:27:18 GMT
Some takeaways for me, firstly however you spin this it was a very good night for Labour and very poor for the tories
Secondly Greens underperformed their polling results. They got 1.8% in Mid-Bedfordshire and 1.6% in Tamworth. In 8 of the last 10 polls the Greens have polled 6%. I've thought for a while their support was overstated and last night showed that, come an election, most of their voters will go to the candidate most likely to beat the tories.
Reform did okay in Tamworth getting 5.4% and middling in Mid-Bedfordshire on 3.7%. But even a few percent of tory support being siphoned off to Reform must worry tory HQ. But they have no easy answers, tacking further to the right will only lead to them haemorrhaging even more votes to Labour and the Libdems
I also think the tories and some political commentators overplayed the importance of Uxbridge and South Ruislip and downplayed Selby and Ainsty too much, as a result they took the wrong message away
Lastly even a major external issue such as Israel/Gaza made little or no impact on the vote people are concerned about the bread and butter issues, the cost of living, NHS, Housing etc and it's hard to see that changing
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