Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 20, 2023 5:16:44 GMT
I think we're both glad that the leader of one of the only two parties that can form HMG in UK is not a Marxist, especially as Plan A aren't that popular at the moment. Corbyn could have won if 1) the body pf labour insiders had supported him instead of trying to undermine him. 2) labour had properly campaigned to remain in the EU. Labour insiders however werent keen either for the party to shift left, or on the EU. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 20, 2023 5:30:26 GMT
The Guardian link actually says the witness didnt believe eat out caused a new wave of deaths. Only that it encouraged people to mix more, which was contrary to his views on what the propaganda message should be. He says they should simply have given the money to restaurants etc to keep them afloat, but presumably the point of the scheme was that it was a sub if you were also spending your own money, therefoe multiplying the amount the restaurants received. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2023 5:33:00 GMT
Not as good a Labour result as achieved 1997 - 2010. Not overly impressive despite the swing. We need a thumbs down option. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 20, 2023 5:42:50 GMT
An NHS issue that is coming up on the rails. 'Physician Associates' are an increasing presence in GP practices, with claims of limited training and experience. 'GPs on the cheap'. There have been cases of bad misdiagnosis (but obvs there also cases where GPs mess up gloriously) but this is being touted as a reform by the government. There may be merit in using lower grade medics with far less training to assess patients, but I think we would all like to be seen by the best trained doctors, given the choice. I don't know enough about this to judge the efficacy of this in clinical terms, other than noting I wouldn't trust a Conservative government with this record on health, but I suspect that this issue will also surface once Labour is at the helm. The problem is a massive shortage of GPs compared to demand. Just about any function which once would have been done by a GP which can be, is now farmed out to support staff of some sort. Screening calls for seriousness. Blood tests, vaccinations, and in particular as you mention a further trend towards diagnosis by support staff. I gave two anecdotes recently which had come by word of mouth, of two serious misdiagnoses which resulted in the person going directly to hospital for emergency surgery. If government sharply increases doctors pay then it will improve the attractiveness of the Uk to pull in more doctors. However, its an interesting question if you are running the NHS and have been given a certain fixed budget, what is the best way to spend that money to maximise health benefit. And it may be someone has already done this calculation and concluded it is better to pay cheap support staff who may do a worse job, and so there will be emergency hospital visits and resultant deaths, but because these staff are cheaper they will be able to see more people, and so overall more people will get seen and properly diagnosed and treated. More fails, but also more successes. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 20, 2023 5:45:59 GMT
Shocked I tell you, shocked... But you arent shocked. None of us are shocked that a member of the government is benefitting personally from their actions governing. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 20, 2023 5:50:12 GMT
I'm sticking to my view there really isn't any such thing as 'inside knowledge' of elections, just speculation. The fact that so many of us on this site, all dedicated followers of politics, often for decades, are amusing ourselves by trying to guess the results tends to support that. After the results are known, those who guessed right can pat themselves on the back for their profound insight and those who were wrong can find reasons to explain it away as usual!  . P.s. - a light-hearted post, please don't take offence! In line with the above rule, as I predicted two Labour wins I am now declaring my genius!  |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 20, 2023 5:51:14 GMT
I have some faith in my trusty spreadsheet which keeps track of party votes and seats and various other factors such as votes/seat since universal suffrage. I find that if I look at the last few polls before a GE and compare the vote shares to the nearest historical parallel it gives a reasonable forecast. There is one big weakness though. I haven't updated the method for about 20 years, so SNP, PC, UKIP, Brexit, Green etc are all lumped together as 'Others'. Now that some of those parties have seats (SNP in particular) it's less accurate than it used to be. My 'Others' reached a peak of 24.7% in 2015 which was 'peak UKIP'. Last time they were down to 12.2% but had 72 seats (largely SNP of course). I'll try to get round to updating it before the next election. Sounds as though you identify your own biggest problem, but on the plus side considering data 20 year old you are eliminating the effects of Brexit, which is presumably currently unwinding back to baseline. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 20, 2023 5:58:48 GMT
Not much money is placed on by-election or single seat results in a GE, however across a larger number of seats (or shares, etc) then a few 'outliers' won't make much difference to the performance of the 'portfolio' Given that betting odds now seem to be getting quite a bit of publicity, and if as you say not much money is being bet, I wonder if a political party might decide the outlay in betting itself whichever way might shift the odds favourably for them, might think this a cost effective way to get some positive publicity? |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 20, 2023 6:00:28 GMT
Another point about last night is that on previous occasions people, including me, have downplayed the likelyhood of such results being played out nationally.
I'm now coming around to the conclusion that the ABT vote is so efficient and people are so fed up with this Government that the tories getting below a hundred MPs at the next election is no longer unthinkable. Not saying it will happen, but wouldn't be surprised if it did
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Post by James E on Oct 20, 2023 6:05:23 GMT
I'm sticking to my view there really isn't any such thing as 'inside knowledge' of elections, just speculation. The fact that so many of us on this site, all dedicated followers of politics, often for decades, are amusing ourselves by trying to guess the results tends to support that. After the results are known, those who guessed right can pat themselves on the back for their profound insight and those who were wrong can find reasons to explain it away as usual! . P.s. - a light-hearted post, please don't take offence! In line with the above rule, as I predicted two Labour wins I am now declaring my genius! ....and I'm doing the same. ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/user/48/recentInteresting that the Conservatives fared worse in Mid Beds than in Tamworth. With the polls currently averaging Con 28, Lab 45, the Tories are retaining 0.62 of their GE2019 share. The 40.7% share in Tamworth was 0.61 of their 2019 vote, while the Mids Beds share of 31.2% was just 0.52 of their 2019 vote there. The 'on par' result in Tamworth is very much consistent with what has happened to the Conservative vote in recent Con/Lab by elections, with them losing votes proportionately in line with what contemporaneous polls were showing. This was also true for the Chester, Stretford and Selby by-elections. The fared somewhat better in West Lancashire, a lot better in Uxbridge, but worse in Wakefield. The effect is different when the LibDems become the main challengers : the Conservative vote share falls by even more than the proportion implied by the polls. This was true in Somerton and Froom, Tiverton, North Shropshire and Chesham and Amersham. Because of this, I think it is at least arguable that they may have contributed to the very poor showing by the Tories in Mid Beds. |
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Post by wb61 on Oct 20, 2023 6:12:13 GMT
I think one of the things that will be subject of deeper analysis by party psephologists and thereafter election tacticians is what caused the difference in LibDem voting. Under 500 in Tamworth compared to maintaining, virtually, their previous vote in Mid Beds. It may prove a key determinant in where to direct resources in a general election.
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 20, 2023 6:15:21 GMT
Election Maps UK
@electionmapsuk
·
Follow
🚨 *JUST FOR FUN ALARM* 🚨
How GB would vote if the Mid Bedfordshire By-Election swing was repeated across the country:
LAB: 480 (+284)
LDM: 104 (+96)
CON: 20 (-356)
SNP: 23 (-25)
PLC: 3 (+1)
GRN: 1 (=)
Labour Majority: 310
Changes w/ GE2019 Notional.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 20, 2023 6:16:21 GMT
A less impressive Labour win than the party achieved at three elections here 1997 - 2010. A bit underwhelming really. The Tories polled 41% compared with just 37% in 2005. Compared with 2005 it actually represents a small swing to the Tories! A highly selective view given recent history and how Keir Starmer has changed things around from the catastrophic defeat in 2019. This was a big brexit area and had become a very safe Tory seat. Logically the fact con pushed brexit through is going to become increasingly a negative for them. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 20, 2023 6:22:52 GMT
I also think the tories and some political commentators overplayed the importance of Uxbridge and South Ruislip and downplayed Selby and Ainsty too much, as a result they took the wrong message away Ulez did not seem to affect these results. Nor indeed did anything said at the tory conference slowing the switch to renewables. Its probably more a sense of desperation that con picked those messages, because frankly they were the best of a bad lot to choose to talk about. Labour taking the opposie tack at their conference, talking about renewal and investment, is a much easier sell because its creating a positve picture of things getting better. Thats how brexit was sold, making life better for everyone. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 20, 2023 6:23:37 GMT
wb61 Numbers wise you are correct however in mid beds the lib dems percentage nearly doubled. It was considered a three horse race and the result where if any of lib dems Labour or the Tories had had a vote change of less than 6% could have won rather confirms this. In Tamworth , lower turnout than mid beds there was never the remotest chance of a lib dem win and voters acted accordingly. A lot of bluster about lib dems letting Tories in in mid beds, couple of points. 1) They didn't☺ 2) There are limits to tactical voting under fptp and when you're in with a reasonable chance of winning yourself as we were in mid beds, it's unrealistic to expect any political party to suggest it's better to vote for someone else. That doesn't stop cooperation in the vast majority of seats where the mid beds situation doesn't apply
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 20, 2023 6:27:40 GMT
I think one of the things that will be subject of deeper analysis by party psephologists and thereafter election tacticians is what caused the difference in LibDem voting. Under 500 in Tamworth compared to maintaining, virtually, their previous vote in Mid Beds. It may prove a key determinant in where to direct resources in a general election. I suspect most will agree that tactical voting is the answer. In Tamworth it was obvious from the start that the Lib Dems couldn't win, so some LD voters switched to Labour to remove the Tory and send a message. In contrast in Mid Beds the Lib Dems maintained they could win right to the end, so there was less reason to switch, albeit their percentage of the vote rose far less than would have been the case if the LD's had emerged as the clear anti-Tory vote. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 20, 2023 6:33:56 GMT
....and I'm doing the same. ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/user/48/recentInteresting that the Conservatives fared worse in Mid Beds than in Tamworth. With the polls currently averaging Con 28, Lab 45, the Tories are retaining 0.62 of their GE2019 share. The 40.7% share in Tamworth was 0.61 of their 2019 vote, while the Mids Beds share of 31.2% was just 0.52 of their 2019 vote there. The 'on par' result in Tamworth is very much in line with what has happened to the Conservative vote in recent Con/Lab by elections, with them losing votes proportionately in line with what contemporaneous polls were showing. This was also true for the Chester, Stretford and Selby by-elections. The fared somewhat better in West Lancashire, a lot better in Uxbridge, but worse in Wakefield. The effect is different when the LibDems become the main challengers : the Conservative vote share falls by even more than the proportion implied by the polls. This was true in Somerton and Froom, Tiverton, North Shropshire and Chesham and Amersham. Because of this, I think it is at least arguable that they may have contributed to the very poor showing by the Tories in Mid Beds. Not sure about the details of these other recent elections now, but with these two new results in front of us, con did much better where it was only challenged by labour. Wereas where lib was also deemed in with a chance, con had a terrible result. Surely the implication of this is that tactical voting is not quite so good as many have argued. Con are still benefitting to the tune of 10% of total votes where it is only opposed by one of the other two. That could well be a 10% block who would vote con or lib but not lab, and another 10% con or lab but not lib. |
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Post by John Chanin on Oct 20, 2023 6:36:00 GMT
Curmudgeon does indeed sound like one of those curious not quite towns in Lanarkshire, desperate to declare its independence from Glasgow. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2023 6:40:45 GMT
wb61 Numbers wise you are correct however in mid beds the lib dems percentage nearly doubled. It was considered a three horse race and the result where if any of lib dems Labour or the Tories had had a vote change of less than 6% could have won rather confirms this. In Tamworth , lower turnout than mid beds there was never the remotest chance of a lib dem win and voters acted accordingly. A lot of bluster about lib dems letting Tories in in mid beds, couple of points. 1) They didn't☺ 2) There are limits to tactical voting under fptp and when you're in with a reasonable chance of winning yourself as we were in mid beds, it's unrealistic to expect any political party to suggest it's better to vote for someone else. That doesn't stop cooperation in the vast majority of seats where the mid beds situation applies. The LD key message ("only we can defeat Con in their heartlands so Lab voters should switch") collapsed last night. The new message is " a vote for LD risks letting Con back in". In areas they don't already hold expect them to collapse in a GE. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2023 6:43:14 GMT
2 Labour Gains. If LD fuck up one of them they fuck themselves as all those tactical votes from Lab voters will stay with Lab next time Oh yes I must be a polling paragon too. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 20, 2023 6:44:15 GMT
Speech by Biden is quite interesting. from BBC website, but generally reported, "In a rare White House speech, he said Hamas and Russia "both want to annihilate a neighbouring democracy". Mr Biden said he would send an "urgent" funding request - expected to be $105bn (£87bn) - to Congress on Friday. "
The interesting thing about this is that Russia has invaded Ukaine. It captured Crimea 5 years ago, and now has come back for some more. Whereas in palestine The people who are now Israelis started 100 years ago with no territory specifically theirs, moved to formal recognition of the state of Israel 50 years ago, and ever since have slowly added more territory. They are the side capturing ground, and they seem to have half admitted they aim to add more territory now. The balance of deaths in the recent exchanges now seems to have moved to more dead gazans than Israelis.
And yet Biden equated Russia with Hamas, instead of equating Russia with Israel.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 20, 2023 6:47:20 GMT
John Curtice's analysis www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67166028"...the fact that Labour are now matching what the party achieved in by-elections 30 years ago strongly corroborates the message at the polls that the Conservatives are in deep electoral trouble. True, turnout fell heavily - by around 30 points - in both seats. That led Conservative spokespersons to argue the results were evidence of discontent with the Conservatives, whose supporters thus stayed at home, rather than enthusiasm for Labour. Consequently, they suggested, the party could still turn things around by the time of the next election. However, turnout fell just as heavily in those by-elections in the 1992-7 parliament that recorded high swings to Labour" |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Oct 20, 2023 6:48:07 GMT
Morning all! Including the 1,337 guests in the last 24 hours and 47 right now! Congrats to Labour and those who predicted successfully!
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Oct 20, 2023 7:00:24 GMT
wb61 Numbers wise you are correct however in mid beds the lib dems percentage nearly doubled. It was considered a three horse race and the result where if any of lib dems Labour or the Tories had had a vote change of less than 6% could have won rather confirms this. In Tamworth , lower turnout than mid beds there was never the remotest chance of a lib dem win and voters acted accordingly. A lot of bluster about lib dems letting Tories in in mid beds, couple of points. 1) They didn't☺ 2) There are limits to tactical voting under fptp and when you're in with a reasonable chance of winning yourself as we were in mid beds, it's unrealistic to expect any political party to suggest it's better to vote for someone else. That doesn't stop cooperation in the vast majority of seats where the mid beds situation applies. The LD key message ("only we can defeat Con in their heartlands so Lab voters should switch") collapsed last night. The new message is " a vote for LD risks letting Con back in". In areas they don't already hold expect them to collapse in a GE. I think ABT voters are far savvier than that and last night's results showed it. There are plenty of seats in the South like Winchester where Labour are nowhere and people know it. The ABT vote here will of course go to the LDs. I remember my first vote in Newbury in 97. Everyone here knew the Lab vote locally was historically tiny. I voted for the seat to be denied the tories and for Blair to be PM. I voted LD. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 20, 2023 7:01:40 GMT
"In areas they don't already hold expect them to collapse in a GE." Totally bizarre comment as we've seen huge numbers of liberal democrat wins at local, council, county and by elections completely opposite of this assertion. nickpI know you don't like the Lib dems but this evidence denying bollocks is juvenile. If you want a side bet I'll give you £20 for the charity of your choice if the lib dems don't at least double their Westminster representation at the general election provided you do the same if they do. |
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Post by alec on Oct 20, 2023 7:04:38 GMT
No real surprises last night. I don't think some have grasped just how poor the Conservative situation is, and while anything can happen in politics, the assumption that Sunak will climb at least some way out of the hole they are in before the next GE is not, in my view, an opinion based on reality. More likely - but not certain - that support evaporates and we see an almighty collapse. I say this because when you look beyond polling, to the failures of successive administrations since 2010, the total absence of any achievements in that time, the loss of any sense of a guiding belief structure, and the wider global environment over the next twelve months, there is no realistic path for any kind of recovery.
While I don't pretend to be any good at predictions, I did say repeatedly after the 2019 result that I felt the Conservatives were in an extremely vulnerable position, counter to the result and narrative, that tended to focus on Labour's run of defeats. Johnson promised everything to everyone,and effectively broke most of the Conservative Party's key tenets in doing so. In any political era, tides always change at some point, for some reason, and when that tide started to ebb, I felt that the 2019 Tory party had burned so many of it's bridges in return for short term political gain, that they would be left stranded. So it has happened. I don't think anyone really knows what Conservative means any more, other than incompetence and corruption.
The games over. It has been for a long time. We may yet be talking about 2019 being the last flowering of the British Conservative Party, although that isn't prediction, just musing on where we are. Never say never in politics, but the Conservatives are in for a very hard time.
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Post by jib on Oct 20, 2023 7:11:53 GMT
The LD key message ("only we can defeat Con in their heartlands so Lab voters should switch") collapsed last night. The new message is " a vote for LD risks letting Con back in". In areas they don't already hold expect them to collapse in a GE. Their whole strategy is a busted flush in the face of a red tsunami. Voters aren't stupid, and they now want real change and decent, honest Government. |
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Post by johntel on Oct 20, 2023 7:17:34 GMT
I think one of the things that will be subject of deeper analysis by party psephologists and thereafter election tacticians is what caused the difference in LibDem voting. Under 500 in Tamworth compared to maintaining, virtually, their previous vote in Mid Beds. It may prove a key determinant in where to direct resources in a general election. I suspect most will agree that tactical voting is the answer. In Tamworth it was obvious from the start that the Lib Dems couldn't win, so some LD voters switched to Labour to remove the Tory and send a message. In contrast in Mid Beds the Lib Dems maintained they could win right to the end, so there was less reason to switch, albeit their percentage of the vote rose far less than would have been the case if the LD's had emerged as the clear anti-Tory vote. What we don't know is how many people in Mid Beds voted tactically for Labour even though they would really have preferred to vote Lib Dem. The result probably underestimates the true Lib Dem support. |
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Post by EmCat on Oct 20, 2023 7:36:07 GMT
We need a thumbs down option. I'd settle for a "Wow!", which would cover everything from "That's amazing!" to "I can't believe someone wrote that" |
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 20, 2023 7:37:01 GMT
Crossbat's Tales from the Campaign Trail (Part 3)
Blimey.
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