Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2024 11:45:17 GMT
There is now.
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on Feb 5, 2024 12:10:52 GMT
‘Suspect’, ‘likely’.. I thought this place was nominally at least for discussion around actual stats. I ‘suspect’ that the more sensible application of Covid rules during the pandemic helped to further cement the idea of a distinct govt of Wales in the public’s mind. Wales is a country you know with it’s own language and everything 🙂 Are you seriously against 20mph limits? We have them almost everywhere in Oxfordshire now and there seems in the end to have been little fuss, a couple of initial Sunak inspired vandalisations excepted. We’re getting one in our village shortly. Can’t wait, it will make our children safer. My opinion on 20 mph limits is irrelevant - there are clear indications that the proposal was not well received. As for Wales being a country , whilst it has a language spoken by 20% of its population it does not qualify for that status any more than Bavaria- Saxony - Rhineland Westphalia - Baden Wurtemburg do in Germany - indeed such areas have been separate states as recently as 1870. Ditto Tuscany - Umbria -et al as component parts of Italy - or Alsace - Lorraine - Normandy - Brittany - the Auvergne as parts of France. I see Wales as a region of Great Britain - along with Scotland - Wessex - Anglia - Cornwall - Mercia - Northumbria et al.
Wow! - you've managed to talk down to an entire nation. Many of the establishment, predominantly the English* (by no means all by the way) have been doing this for centuries. England is a nation. Scotland is a nation. But no, Wales isn't a nation - it's only a principality. When the time comes, and it will, and Wales gets a chance to increase its own powers, then such condescending, superior, tone-deaf attitudes will only boost the numbers of those seeking to increase their nation's powers. So some good can come from attitudes like yours, even if you don't want those outcomes yourself. And for heavens sake if you are ever in Wales, don't go into a Welsh pub and tell them they are not a nation, but a region on a par with Anglia - it really, really wouldn't go down well. |
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Post by shevii on Feb 5, 2024 12:15:34 GMT
As Steve has pointed out, this is not a like-with-like comparison, as the 'current VI' figures only add up to 72 with 28% either undecided or some other category. If the figures of those actually giving a VI are re-based to 100, the Lab VI is 60% (with 14% Grn, 8% Con, 8% LD) . But I would also doubt their figures for GE 2019, which appear to be Lab 86%, Con 10%, SNP 2%, LD 1%, Grn 1%. And given the tendency of 'Don't Knows' to revert to the party they previously voted for Labour would most likely be on course to take 65% plus of the Muslim vote in an actual General Election. There is a clear precedent for what might happen now, as Labour's Muslim vote fell substantially in the 2005 election as a result of the war in Iraq. But nearly all of the seats affected were very safe Labour. The only Lab/Con marginal where this probably made a difference was Peterborough, which the Tories won on an unusually high swing ; this was reversed in 2010 and 2015 when Labour then performed above expectations. news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/frontpage/4520527.stmIr was me pointed that out not Steve!!! I think Survation tables suggest their 83% Lab vote was based on 75% turnout? Tables are here if you want to drill deeper (which is always appreciated with your posts): www.survation.com/https-www-survation-com-archive-2024-2/If that's true then like for like the 60% does seem reasonable and we can assume a lot of the don't knows are non voters, but I'm doubtful about the theory of reverting back to previous party this time as we saw with LD don't knows in 2015 and may see with Tory don't knows this year. Also I'd be querying eventual lower turnout among those who offered a voting intention. Looking at some of the clues in the background questions the favourable on Lab and Starmer doesn't really get any further than that headline figure (which as we agree is not comparing like with like)- 48% favourable Lab and 30% favourable Starmer and options of don't know of neither favourable/unfavourable a bit higher than the don't knows in the headline figure. Given the likely large Labour majority I can't see this impacting the overall General Election result much other than the same sort of random things mentioned in the BBC report and the ongoing loss of another "core" vote. |
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Post by mercian on Feb 5, 2024 12:21:07 GMT
There was some posting on sitcoms the other day. It occurred to me that whilst I was growing up the sitcom was generally based in working class situations. I think that began to change to middle class in the 1970's with The Goode Life but accelerated during the 1980's. Is that my imagination? I think Terry and June predated that. Also plenty of working class comedies since - Only Fools and Horses, Rising Damp etc etc |
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Post by graham on Feb 5, 2024 12:29:23 GMT
My opinion on 20 mph limits is irrelevant - there are clear indications that the proposal was not well received. As for Wales being a country , whilst it has a language spoken by 20% of its population it does not qualify for that status any more than Bavaria- Saxony - Rhineland Westphalia - Baden Wurtemburg do in Germany - indeed such areas have been separate states as recently as 1870. Ditto Tuscany - Umbria -et al as component parts of Italy - or Alsace - Lorraine - Normandy - Brittany - the Auvergne as parts of France. I see Wales as a region of Great Britain - along with Scotland - Wessex - Anglia - Cornwall - Mercia - Northumbria et al.
Wow! - you've managed to talk down to an entire nation. Many of the establishment, predominantly the English* (by no means all by the way) have been doing this for centuries. England is a nation. Scotland is a nation. But no, Wales isn't a nation - it's only a principality. When the time comes, and it will, and Wales gets a chance to increase its own powers, then such condescending, superior, tone-deaf attitudes will only boost the numbers of those seeking to increase their nation's powers. So some good can come from attitudes like yours, even if you don't want those outcomes yourself. And for heavens sake if you are ever in Wales, don't go into a Welsh pub and tell them they are not a nation, but a region on a par with Anglia - it really, really wouldn't go down well. I disagree. I grew up in Pembrokeshire and have never felt culturally Welsh - and have always described myself as British.That also applies to many who live in Monmouthshire and Flintshire. The vast majority do not speak Welsh and appear to have no desire to do so.
I have never thought of England as a country - it has too many component parts which have an historical claim to independent kingdoms in their own right . Merbyon Kernow - the Cornish nationalist party has a not insignificant following. We also see the stirrings of a Yorkshire Party. Germany consisted of many states as recently as 1870 - doubtless you have heard of King Ludwig of bavaria!
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Feb 5, 2024 12:33:40 GMT
Wow! - you've managed to talk down to an entire nation. Many of the establishment, predominantly the English* (by no means all by the way) have been doing this for centuries. England is a nation. Scotland is a nation. But no, Wales isn't a nation - it's only a principality. When the time comes, and it will, and Wales gets a chance to increase its own powers, then such condescending, superior, tone-deaf attitudes will only boost the numbers of those seeking to increase their nation's powers. So some good can come from attitudes like yours, even if you don't want those outcomes yourself. And for heavens sake if you are ever in Wales, don't go into a Welsh pub and tell them they are not a nation, but a region on a par with Anglia - it really, really wouldn't go down well. I disagree. I grew up in Pembrokeshire and have never felt culturally Welsh - and have always described myself as British.That also applies to many who live in Monmouthshire and Flintshire. The vast majority do not speak Welsh and appear to have no desire to do so.
I have never thought of England as a country - it has too many component parts which have an historical claim to independent kingdoms in their own right . Merbyon Kernow - the Cornish nationalist party has a not insignificant following. We also see the stirrings of a Yorkshire Party. Germany consisted of many states as recently as 1870 - doubtless you have heard of King Ludwig of bavaria!
Most of Pembrokeshire, aka little England beyond Wales isn't culturally Welsh, hasn't been since resettlement in the middle ages so you're origin from there speaks volumes. It's an English exclave, even the place names are not Welsh. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landsker_Line Your comparison of England to Germany makes no sense. Germany has almost always been a collection of independent or semi-independent states often within some form of wider, loose federal structure. England has been a unitary state for over a millenium and has consistently been one of the most centralised of European countries. |
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Post by alec on Feb 5, 2024 13:04:36 GMT
Talking about TV comedies, the last surviving regular of Dad's Army, Ian Lavender, has just died.
"Don't tell 'em, Pike!".
Classic.
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 5, 2024 13:05:26 GMT
History of independence doesn't always associate with a wish to restore it.
The province of Catalonia in Spain has arguably never been an independent nation at least for a thousand years, it has enjoyed various levels of autonomy and still in common with all other areas of modern Spain has autonomous authority significantly more than that enjoyed by the member countries of the United kingdom.
Nearly everyone in Catalonia along with Castilian can speak some Catalan,many millions routinely use Catalan daily.
Around half have expressed the wish to recover the independence they never had in the first place.
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Post by alec on Feb 5, 2024 13:07:11 GMT
mercian - "I think Terry and June predated that. Also plenty of working class comedies since - Only Fools and Horses, Rising Damp etc etc" Can't get much more working class than Mrs Brown's Boys. As this article attests, the idea of what is good tends to vary with class - www.telegraph.co.uk/tv/0/mystery-mrs-browns-boys-did-show-nobody-likes-become-popular/I think 'working class comedy' (whatever that means) is alive and well, it's just that the middle classes (whoever they are) tend to look the other way.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2024 13:08:27 GMT
Ian Lavender, the last remaining original cast member of 'Dad's Army', dies at 77. Really the end of an era. "Don't tell him, Pike!" is surely one of the defining lines of sitcom history.
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Post by graham on Feb 5, 2024 13:14:57 GMT
I disagree. I grew up in Pembrokeshire and have never felt culturally Welsh - and have always described myself as British.That also applies to many who live in Monmouthshire and Flintshire. The vast majority do not speak Welsh and appear to have no desire to do so.
I have never thought of England as a country - it has too many component parts which have an historical claim to independent kingdoms in their own right . Merbyon Kernow - the Cornish nationalist party has a not insignificant following. We also see the stirrings of a Yorkshire Party. Germany consisted of many states as recently as 1870 - doubtless you have heard of King Ludwig of bavaria!
Most of Pembrokeshire, aka little England beyond Wales isn't culturally Welsh, hasn't been since resettlement in the middle ages so you're origin from there speaks volumes. It's an English exclave, even the place names are not Welsh. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landsker_Line Your comparison of England to Germany makes no sense. Germany has almost always been a collection of independent or semi-independent states often within some form of wider, loose federal structure. England has been a unitary state for over a millenium and has consistently been one of the most centralised of European countries. Most place names in Wales are English - Swansea - Newtown - Bridgend - Newport - Burry Port - Barry - Connahs Quay etc. Re - England . It really depends on how far back you wish to go. Many residents of Cornwall do not see themselves as English. I would also suggest that Geordies in the NorthEast have far less in common culturally with people living in Surrey thn those living in Bristol or Gloucester have with those living in Newport or Cardiff. There are also many in Bavaria who identify as 'Bavarian' rather than 'German'. We still see separate plitical parties there - CSU rather than CDU. Saxon, Thuringian and Prussian identities are also still there.
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Post by graham on Feb 5, 2024 13:16:26 GMT
Ian Lavender, the last remaining original cast member of 'Dad's Army', dies at 77. Really the end of an era. "Don't tell him, Pike!" is surely one of the defining lines of sitcom history. Very sad news. It really makes me feel old as I approach 70 this Summer. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Feb 5, 2024 13:30:52 GMT
The Muslim poll with don't knows excluded
Personally I suspect come a General Election many will drift back to Labour because of other issues
Westminster Voting Intention [Muslims]:
LAB: 60% (-26)
GRN: 14% (+13)
LDM: 9% (+8)
CON: 8% (-2)
SNP: 4% (+2)
Via
@survation
, 18 Jan - 3 Feb.
Changes w/ GE2019.
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 5, 2024 13:37:23 GMT
neilj I can't see that this switch impacts any potential Labour goals it could conceivably assist the Lib dems in target seats against the Tories such as Wimbledon ,Sutton and Fulham. And I suppose with a tail wind Sheffield Hallam against Labour. Also could potentially help the Greens in Bristol. But given the largest Muslim communities are all in Labour seats where they weigh the majority of makes little difference.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Feb 5, 2024 13:45:32 GMT
Delta
Labour lead widens to sixteen points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
Con 27% (-2)
Lab 43% (-)
Lib Dem 10% (-)
Other 20% (+1)
Net approval for @keir_Starmer rises by four percentage points since our last poll, while net approval for @rishisunak is down by three points
Starmer leads by 37 points at -1 to Sunak's -38
Fieldwork: 2nd - 5th February 2024
Sample: 2,004 GB adults
(Changes from 26th - 29th January 2024)
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Feb 5, 2024 13:54:21 GMT
Sam Coates reporting on the Survation Muslim poll
'This is what Survation themselves say on the poll - treat crossbreaks (ie just pulling out Labour 2019 voters from this poll) with “caution” because of the low sample size'
Apparently the sub sample was 368
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Post by James E on Feb 5, 2024 14:34:45 GMT
And given the tendency of 'Don't Knows' to revert to the party they previously voted for Labour would most likely be on course to take 65% plus of the Muslim vote in an actual General Election.... [etc] Ir was me pointed that out not Steve!!! I think Survation tables suggest their 83% Lab vote was based on 75% turnout? Tables are here if you want to drill deeper (which is always appreciated with your posts): www.survation.com/https-www-survation-com-archive-2024-2/If that's true then like for like the 60% does seem reasonable and we can assume a lot of the don't knows are non voters, but I'm doubtful about the theory of reverting back to previous party this time as we saw with LD don't knows in 2015 and may see with Tory don't knows this year. Also I'd be querying eventual lower turnout among those who offered a voting intention. Looking at some of the clues in the background questions the favourable on Lab and Starmer doesn't really get any further than that headline figure (which as we agree is not comparing like with like)- 48% favourable Lab and 30% favourable Starmer and options of don't know of neither favourable/unfavourable a bit higher than the don't knows in the headline figure. Given the likely large Labour majority I can't see this impacting the overall General Election result much other than the same sort of random things mentioned in the BBC report and the ongoing loss of another "core" vote. On the reversion of the 'Don't Knows'. You may know that I am a firm believer in some measure of reversion of Don't Knows, but this needs to treated proportionately. Clearly not all DKs revert to the party they voted for last time, and they are more likely to not not vote than those with a firm Voting Intention. The old ICM practice of adding back a net half of each party's DKs seems to me a useful predictor. At present, that would cut about a net 4 points from Labour's lead, working on approximate figures of 25% Con2019 and 10% Lab2019 answering 'Don't Know'. Of course, this cannot apply to polls from Opinium or MiC, which already include a slightly larger adjustment. Incidentally, the same kind of calculation would explain why the LibDems got little net benefit in 2015. If they had (say) 25% DKs from their 24% 2010 vote-share, and the Conservatives (say) 16% from their 37% 2010 vote, then the actual numbers of each would be almost the same for each. (and apologies for attributing your own comments to Steve!) EDIT: Conveniently, courtesy of LL, we have actual figures for the relative levels of 'Don't Knows' going into 2015, which can be used to explain why the LDs did not get much of a boost from their higher DKs. These show as an average of 20% 2010 LDs, 12% 2010Con and 10% 2010Lab. If you calculate a 50% reversion for each, this would add 2.4 to LDs, 2.2 to Con and 1.4 to Lab, after which all the figures would need to be re-based to 100. So this would be consistent with a very small improvement for both LDs which is what happened in the last 10 months of the 2010-15 Parliament. |
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Post by johntel on Feb 5, 2024 14:48:19 GMT
That is just astonishing: to follow that logic why don't we just return to life in a state of nature when everyone can die before they are forty years old. I am glad I have blocked @danny as such misanthropy is truly scary. Ironically I don't think Danny is exactly a spring chicken himself. It's just him trying to get a 'gasp' reaction again. He was always a bit more erm 'imaginative' as a poster but he didn't used to be like this. Covid (the pandemic rather than a specific case of the disease) seems to have deranged him and since then he seems to have more and more of a need to get a reaction through provocation. It's sad really. Like you I blocked him a while ago. I don't think you should take everything @danny says literally. In common with @trevor he uses the forum to explore ideas (sometimes to expose the logical conclusion of certain viewpoints) rather than state his own fixed opinion - which personally I don't have any problem with, in fact it adds to the rich tapestry of this site. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Feb 5, 2024 14:49:05 GMT
This illustrates very well that Sunak really doesn't understand politics or effective communication
A multimillionaire bets a £1000 that people will be deported to Rwanda before the next election, who does he think this will appeal to?
Regardless of the humanitarian a aspects in a cost of living crisis, when people are struggling, it just shows him as an out of touch rich man
It's like something out of Victorian times
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Post by leftieliberal on Feb 5, 2024 15:05:37 GMT
My internet reception, tv and radio have been off all day - any news as to whether the Arse held their own against Liverpool today? Being handed their own arse is something that happens quite often to the Gooners. On this occasion they fluked a win. Totally against the run out of play. I suspect the match was fixed. Be fair. They gifted Liverpool a goal (an own goal, in fact) at a time when Liverpool seemed incapable of scoring. They shouldn't be blamed for van Dijk and Alisson's Keystone Cops act. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Feb 5, 2024 15:19:14 GMT
Sam Coates reporting on the Survation Muslim poll 'This is what Survation themselves say on the poll - treat crossbreaks (ie just pulling out Labour 2019 voters from this poll) with “caution” because of the low sample size' Apparently the sub sample was 368 Using Poisson statistics that would imply a standard deviation of ~19, putting the 95% confidence points at ±38 or more than ±10% of the sample size. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Feb 5, 2024 15:26:57 GMT
Most of Pembrokeshire, aka little England beyond Wales isn't culturally Welsh, hasn't been since resettlement in the middle ages so you're origin from there speaks volumes. It's an English exclave, even the place names are not Welsh. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landsker_Line Your comparison of England to Germany makes no sense. Germany has almost always been a collection of independent or semi-independent states often within some form of wider, loose federal structure. England has been a unitary state for over a millenium and has consistently been one of the most centralised of European countries. Most place names in Wales are English - Swansea - Newtown - Bridgend - Newport - Burry Port - Barry - Connahs Quay etc. Re - England . It really depends on how far back you wish to go. Many residents of Cornwall do not see themselves as English. I would also suggest that Geordies in the NorthEast have far less in common culturally with people living in Surrey thn those living in Bristol or Gloucester have with those living in Newport or Cardiff. There are also many in Bavaria who identify as 'Bavarian' rather than 'German'. We still see separate plitical parties there - CSU rather than CDU. Saxon, Thuringian and Prussian identities are also still there.
Germany as a single entity didn't exist before Bismarck became Chancellor. Go back to the early 19th Century after the defeat of Napoleon I and it's a patchwork of small states and a few large ones like Prussia and Bavaria. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Feb 5, 2024 15:31:37 GMT
This illustrates very well that Sunak really doesn't understand politics or effective communication A multimillionaire bets a £1000 that people will be deported to Rwanda before the next election, who does he think this will appeal to? Regardless of the humanitarian a aspects in a cost of living crisis, when people are struggling, it just shows him as an out of touch rich man It's like something out of Victorian times Mind bogglingly bad taste and poor judgement. Sociopathic really. A kick up the rear to anyone who still thought Sunak represents anything 'moderate' or 'sensible'. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2024 16:05:11 GMT
Sam Coates reporting on the Survation Muslim poll 'This is what Survation themselves say on the poll - treat crossbreaks (ie just pulling out Labour 2019 voters from this poll) with “caution” because of the low sample size' Apparently the sub sample was 368 Using Poisson statistics that would imply a standard deviation of ~19, putting the 95% confidence points at ±38 or more than ±10% of the sample size. I thought it sounded a bit fishy. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Feb 5, 2024 17:02:17 GMT
Redfield Wilton
Labour leads by 21%.
Lowest Lib Dem % since March 2023.
Westminster VI (4 February):
Labour 45% (–)
Conservative 24% (+2)
Reform UK 12% (–)
Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
Green 4% (-2)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 28 January
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 5, 2024 17:15:49 GMT
Sam Coates reporting on the Survation Muslim poll 'This is what Survation themselves say on the poll - treat crossbreaks (ie just pulling out Labour 2019 voters from this poll) with “caution” because of the low sample size' Apparently the sub sample was 368 Are you sure it wasn't a poll conducted by Stats for Lefties and commissioned by Owen Jones? I have a very strong suspicion that it might have been. 🤔😉😜 |
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Dave
Member
... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
Posts: 818
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Post by Dave on Feb 5, 2024 17:17:49 GMT
Redfield Wilton Labour leads by 21%. Lowest Lib Dem % since March 2023. Westminster VI (4 February): Labour 45% (–) Conservative 24% (+2) Reform UK 12% (–) Liberal Democrat 9% (-2) Green 4% (-2) Scottish National Party 3% (–) Other 2% (+1) Changes +/- 28 January Is that the sound of Jib being activated that I hear?  Seriously, I get that this could all be down to margin of error alone. But is it me, or have polls overall generally been seeing a decline in the Liberals' figures? If so, I wonder if the co-ordinated attack on Ed Davey over the Post Office had an effect. God speed to Ian Lavender - truly the end of an era. Dad's Army is simply unsurpassable as a sitcom - and this from a man who grew up on alternative comedy. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Feb 5, 2024 17:29:09 GMT
Two tweets from John Rentoul on "Don't knows"
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 5, 2024 17:48:03 GMT
The lib dems performance tends to improve with high profile successes in local elections and by elections.There haven't been any recently.
Otherwise there's hardly any media coverage, that there has been recently has primarily related to Ed Davey's service under a Tory led government when he was the minister responsible for the post office for 20 months out of the 20 year horizon scandal 12 years ago.
He of course remains the only minister to offer an apology and the only one to be targeted by the Tory backing media.
Other than that as usual no significant mention, the same applies to the Greens.
The liberal democrats do get more coverage during general election campaigns, primarily because it's more difficult for the media to ignore them and this normally results in improvement in support.
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Post by jib on Feb 5, 2024 18:27:15 GMT
Lowest Lib Dem % since March 2023. Liberal Democrat 9% (-2) Is that the sound of Jib being activated that I hear? In the words of my favourite American take away burger merchant;  |
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