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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 5, 2024 8:46:15 GMT
Interesting analysis of US polls We're speculating here, but what are the respective chances of these narrow poll leads for Trump either widening or narrowing/disappearing the nearer we get to November and the current fairly risk free opinion poll responses have to convert to hard crosses on ballot papers? The Trump v Not Trump decision in other words. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Feb 5, 2024 8:46:44 GMT
Robert Colville, a right wing libertarian commentator makes this sound like a bad thing
'Labour: we’re going to be pro-business. So pro-business. While making you increase wages, recognise unions, accept collective bargaining, restrict labour flexibility, hugely increase the bureaucracy around protected characteristics and telling you where to invest'
I find it amusing that the right accuse Labour of being too left wing and the left accuse Labour of being too right wing
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Feb 5, 2024 8:53:55 GMT
Robert Colville, a right wing libertarian commentator makes this sound like a bad thing 'Labour: we’re going to be pro-business. So pro-business. While making you increase wages, recognise unions, accept collective bargaining, restrict labour flexibility, hugely increase the bureaucracy around protected characteristics and telling you where to invest' I find it amusing that the right accuse Labour of being too left wing and the left accuse Labour of being too right wing T'was ever thus. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 5, 2024 8:55:44 GMT
crossbat11 There's a pretty decent chance the election will be in May another drubbing at the locals and more Brexit related crap such as border checks and food supply and if the weather's nice more small boat crossings kick in after May continued with the daily cluster shambles of the regime's ineptitude and corruption. There's plenty of time for more Tory mps to be caught out. Of course a combination of cowardice and galactic level wishful thinking could push it to November but I suspect whatever faux tax cut is manufactured in the March budget won't be proven an obvious lie until a couple of months later and the stealth tax increase from frozen tax allowances won't be that obvious. The regime can also claim credit for falling inflation while of course denying that rising inflation has anything to do with them.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 5, 2024 9:03:03 GMT
Further to this I think Starmer knows how important it is to only commit to what you can deliver. We saw what happened when you promise the earth in 2019 (Labour) But they didnt...the only issue which mattered was Brexit and they said they might have another referndum on the final deal they negotiated. Not much to enthuse the remainers, who voted lib. Con won that election by having a cause- get brexit done. The importance of a cause it attracts those who dont otherwise like you much. Exactly as the promised benefits of Brexit have failed to appear and the drawbacks become obvious...con vote collapses. Its not as if their other policies have changed since they had much stronger support. This is the difference. Possibly. Although it might just be a return to baseline. It could be argued dissilkusion with Thatcherism has been growing steadily since it was invented, so what we are seeing now is just the reult of a long term trend. brexit in particular being what dragged con scores up for a while. So what is the short term correct action? |
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 5, 2024 9:11:13 GMT
crossbat11 There's a pretty decent chance the election will be in May another drubbing at the locals and more Brexit related crap such as border checks and food supply and if the weather's nice more small boat crossings kick in after May continued with the daily cluster shambles of the regime's ineptitude and corruption. There's plenty of time for more Tory mps to be caught out. Of course a combination of cowardice and galactic level wishful thinking could push it to November but I suspect whatever faux tax cut is manufactured in the March budget won't be proven an obvious lie until a couple of months later and the stealth tax increase from frozen tax allowances won't be that obvious. The regime can also claim credit for falling inflation while of course denying that rising inflation has anything to do with them. Anything is possible, I suppose, but it still feels like November will be the date. The Wellingborough by-election result, and maybe others too, might scare them off going any earlier. It's the something might turn up strategy beloved of dying governments. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 5, 2024 9:11:20 GMT
Really fascinating to watch the descent of Israel into a moral abyss. It's another example of right wing populism, where government ministers are openly advocating for ethnic cleansing, and are increasingly biting the hands that feed them in their insatiable belief that the world owes them so much that rules don't apply to them. They have some absolutely brilliant spokespeople going around explaining how Israel is totally in the right. A brilliant example of government propaganda, far better than the Uk government did with covid and surely rivalling Goebbels. Not really, better to kill all the Gazans now than have to return to this in the future. Same startegy Russia tried to adopt in Ukraine, just do it and apologise afterwards, but then Ukraine descended into stalemate. I heard an interesting discussion yesterday arguing that Finland joinging NATO is absolutely disastrous strategically for Russia and effectively completely undermines any further ambitions to seize baltic states. And that strategically these places were more of interest to Russia than Ukraine, so whatever happens there this will end as a bad bargain for Russia. Argued Russias Baltic fleet is now pointless.(and the Black sea one is helping them much either). |
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 5, 2024 9:14:27 GMT
Robert Colville, a right wing libertarian commentator makes this sound like a bad thing 'Labour: we’re going to be pro-business. So pro-business. While making you increase wages, recognise unions, accept collective bargaining, restrict labour flexibility, hugely increase the bureaucracy around protected characteristics and telling you where to invest' I find it amusing that the right accuse Labour of being too left wing and the left accuse Labour of being too right wing It's called electioneering and this is an election year. It all gets very silly and feverish at such times. We all need to fasten up our belts and prepare for the ride. It should be fun. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 5, 2024 9:19:47 GMT
But the other bit of screaming lunacy here is that one of the reasons workers will soon have to work until 71 before getting a pension is that so many workers are falling sick and leaving the workforce while still of working age. . I suggest to you the exact opposite is true. Pensions are if anything becoming unaffordable because of the success of the NHS in keeping us healthy, so that we live much longer and claim much more pension. If you want to make pensions affordable again, encourage everyone to smoke and start the younger the better. Let all the disabled die as they used to well before claiming a pension. Get rid of the home helps and the central heating so those pensioners freeze to death and starve because they cant look after themselves. The reason there are so many registered sick people is because we are keeping them alive longer! |
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Post by barbara on Feb 5, 2024 9:25:29 GMT
crossbat11 There's a pretty decent chance the election will be in May another drubbing at the locals and more Brexit related crap such as border checks and food supply and if the weather's nice more small boat crossings kick in after May continued with the daily cluster shambles of the regime's ineptitude and corruption. There's plenty of time for more Tory mps to be caught out. Of course a combination of cowardice and galactic level wishful thinking could push it to November but I suspect whatever faux tax cut is manufactured in the March budget won't be proven an obvious lie until a couple of months later and the stealth tax increase from frozen tax allowances won't be that obvious. The regime can also claim credit for falling inflation while of course denying that rising inflation has anything to do with them. Anything is possible, I suppose, but it still feels like November will be the date. The Wellingborough by-election result, and maybe others too, might scare them off going any earlier. It's the something might turn up strategy beloved of dying governments. I read somewhere (probably the Guardian) that a senior Tory was saying that the Tories are considering whether the dissatisfaction and desertion of Labour by the Muslim community as a result of Starmer's early comments on the Israeli-Gaza situation may offer a ray of light to the Tories (not it was stressed, that they'll win but in the hope of reducing losses and allow the Tories to form a credible opposition in the next parliament). This would suggest a May election while the issue is still fresh and the hurt still foremost in these voters' minds. By November Starmer may have redeemed himself somewhat and/or the international community may have stopped the worst excesses of Netanyanhu |
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Post by alec on Feb 5, 2024 9:25:40 GMT
crossbat11 - I would agree that we can't necessarily take current noises as 100% guarantees of what Labour in power will look like, but historical precedent isn't on the side of the radicals. When the centre right takes over the Labour Party in opposition, you always seem to get centre right Labour governments. Yes, Starmer may surprise, and I've no doubt there will be some genuinely good things that come forth, and yes, it will of course be far better than the shambles we've had since 2010, but will it leave a mark on the country like the Labour Party of '45 did? I think we're 99.9% sure that's a no. What is very frustrating is that in 1945 the stage was set to upend the prior received wisdom, which, Labour did with gusto. Slightly less dramatically, but we're at the same point in 2024. Since 2008 it's been beyond clear that neoliberalism has failed, miserably, yet we still get people like Wes Streeting saying how much more of the neoliberal agenda we need. Reeves remains stuck in the groove where all tax is bad, even while the richest people in the world are busy writing to governments pleading for them to tax them more. Labour will end up giving neoliberalism yet another lifeline, and we'll set back the cause of progress by another decade or two.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 5, 2024 9:31:23 GMT
There was what i thought an important bit of news yesterday, which said the armed forces are facing a recruitment crisis. Its obvious why of course, they do not pay enough for a job involving running around in the mud and getting shot at. Aso indeed one where mid live you risk being fired and have to start again because they especially need young fit people.
Tobias Elwood was being interviewed, and he commented on the shortcomings of our destroyers and frigates operating in the gulf. He said they have no missiles able to effectively strike targets on land. The interviewer suggested thats why we have an aircraft carrier, but he said no, they need sea to land missiles.
In other words, once again someone is saying the massively expensive aircraft carriers are a white elephant. Warfare is moving away from classical airpower in the form of a plane with a pilot on board. Ukraine has pretty much interdicted its airspace to russian planes without an airforce itself.
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 5, 2024 9:45:54 GMT
Danny
When I suggested uniform public services to my kids as both their parents and both their grandparents and three of their cousins and uncles had been in civilian or military uniform services they looked at me as if I was bonkers.
They certainly need to be paid better but the Met Police degree scheme, that replaces the two year probation with a three year degree is pretty competitive, not enough to live on in London independently of course but £38000 pa at age 19 isn't bad.
It's better pay than an armed forces officer in training but the benefits, free or heavily discounted board and lodging in the armed forces are better.
Those benefits have now gone for Met Officers which is the primary reason they can't recruit.
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Post by shevii on Feb 5, 2024 9:59:31 GMT
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Post by shevii on Feb 5, 2024 10:06:52 GMT
Technically it's not correct to say it's halved as the don't knows are not included in the comparison figures but I would surmise that a lot of those in the don't know category may simply be because they don't have a clear alternative to Lab yet.
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 5, 2024 10:10:32 GMT
Nice to see increased support for the Lib dems and Greens
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2024 10:19:18 GMT
crossbat11 There's a pretty decent chance the election will be in May another drubbing at the locals and more Brexit related crap such as border checks and food supply and if the weather's nice more small boat crossings kick in after May continued with the daily cluster shambles of the regime's ineptitude and corruption. There's plenty of time for more Tory mps to be caught out. Of course a combination of cowardice and galactic level wishful thinking could push it to November but I suspect whatever faux tax cut is manufactured in the March budget won't be proven an obvious lie until a couple of months later and the stealth tax increase from frozen tax allowances won't be that obvious. The regime can also claim credit for falling inflation while of course denying that rising inflation has anything to do with them.
I'm surprised more hasn't been made of this by those refuting Sunak's inflation claims. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 5, 2024 10:22:06 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 5, 2024 10:23:38 GMT
"I'm surprised more hasn't been made of this by those refuting Sunak's inflation claims."
Probably because if Labour had been in office they'd have made the same spurious claims.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2024 10:30:56 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2024 10:43:27 GMT
If you want to make pensions affordable again, encourage everyone to smoke and start the younger the better. Let all the disabled die as they used to well before claiming a pension. Get rid of the home helps and the central heating so those pensioners freeze to death and starve because they cant look after themselves. The reason there are so many registered sick people is because we are keeping them alive longer! Just reposted this to highlight what remarkably ugly things you post on here. |
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Post by graham on Feb 5, 2024 10:51:26 GMT
crossbat11 There's a pretty decent chance the election will be in May another drubbing at the locals and more Brexit related crap such as border checks and food supply and if the weather's nice more small boat crossings kick in after May continued with the daily cluster shambles of the regime's ineptitude and corruption. There's plenty of time for more Tory mps to be caught out. Of course a combination of cowardice and galactic level wishful thinking could push it to November but I suspect whatever faux tax cut is manufactured in the March budget won't be proven an obvious lie until a couple of months later and the stealth tax increase from frozen tax allowances won't be that obvious. The regime can also claim credit for falling inflation while of course denying that rising inflation has anything to do with them. Anything is possible, I suppose, but it still feels like November will be the date. The Wellingborough by-election result, and maybe others too, might scare them off going any earlier. It's the something might turn up strategy beloved of dying governments. An Autumn election is likely to mean another awkward by election for the Tories at Blackpool South in June or July. A May election avoids that. |
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Post by wb61 on Feb 5, 2024 10:54:13 GMT
If you want to make pensions affordable again, encourage everyone to smoke and start the younger the better. Let all the disabled die as they used to well before claiming a pension. Get rid of the home helps and the central heating so those pensioners freeze to death and starve because they cant look after themselves. The reason there are so many registered sick people is because we are keeping them alive longer! Just reposted this to highlight what remarkably ugly things you post on here. That is just astonishing: to follow that logic why don't we just return to life in a state of nature when everyone can die before they are forty years old. I am glad I have blocked @danny as such misanthropy is truly scary. |
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Post by graham on Feb 5, 2024 10:57:19 GMT
crossbat11 - I would agree that we can't necessarily take current noises as 100% guarantees of what Labour in power will look like, but historical precedent isn't on the side of the radicals. When the centre right takes over the Labour Party in opposition, you always seem to get centre right Labour governments. Yes, Starmer may surprise, and I've no doubt there will be some genuinely good things that come forth, and yes, it will of course be far better than the shambles we've had since 2010, but will it leave a mark on the country like the Labour Party of '45 did? I think we're 99.9% sure that's a no. What is very frustrating is that in 1945 the stage was set to upend the prior received wisdom, which, Labour did with gusto. Slightly less dramatically, but we're at the same point in 2024. Since 2008 it's been beyond clear that neoliberalism has failed, miserably, yet we still get people like Wes Streeting saying how much more of the neoliberal agenda we need. Reeves remains stuck in the groove where all tax is bad, even while the richest people in the world are busy writing to governments pleading for them to tax them more. Labour will end up giving neoliberalism yet another lifeline, and we'll set back the cause of progress by another decade or two. That is absolutely spot -on! Starmer and Reeves ought to be following Attlee - not Blair who did little more than cement in the legacy of Thatcher. |
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Post by graham on Feb 5, 2024 10:59:34 GMT
If you want to make pensions affordable again, encourage everyone to smoke and start the younger the better. Let all the disabled die as they used to well before claiming a pension. Get rid of the home helps and the central heating so those pensioners freeze to death and starve because they cant look after themselves. The reason there are so many registered sick people is because we are keeping them alive longer! Just reposted this to highlight what remarkably ugly things you post on here. He was surely using irony rather than actually advocating such policies. |
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Post by James E on Feb 5, 2024 11:01:35 GMT
As Steve has pointed out, this is not a like-with-like comparison, as the 'current VI' figures only add up to 72 with 28% either undecided or some other category. If the figures of those actually giving a VI are re-based to 100, the Lab VI is 60% (with 14% Grn, 8% Con, 8% LD) . But I would also doubt their figures for GE 2019, which appear to be Lab 86%, Con 10%, SNP 2%, LD 1%, Grn 1%. And given the tendency of 'Don't Knows' to revert to the party they previously voted for Labour would most likely be on course to take 65% plus of the Muslim vote in an actual General Election. There is a clear precedent for what might happen now, as Labour's Muslim vote fell substantially in the 2005 election as a result of the war in Iraq. But nearly all of the seats affected were very safe Labour. The only Lab/Con marginal where this probably made a difference was Peterborough, which the Tories won on an unusually high swing ; this was reversed in 2010 and 2015 when Labour then performed above expectations. news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/frontpage/4520527.stm |
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Post by wb61 on Feb 5, 2024 11:07:49 GMT
There was some posting on sitcoms the other day. It occurred to me that whilst I was growing up the sitcom was generally based in working class situations. I think that began to change to middle class in the 1970's with The Goode Life but accelerated during the 1980's. Is that my imagination?
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Post by alec on Feb 5, 2024 11:22:51 GMT
@fecklessmiser - "Just reposted this to highlight what remarkably ugly things you post on here." Danny delights in posting inflammatory nonsense for the kicks, I guess. It's also stupid. He hasn't learned the lessons of history. Capitalism didn't go along with pensions, welfare payments, health & safety, education etc etc for nothing. Victorian industrialists came to understand that as soon as we reached the point where we needed a cadre of more productive, better educated workers to make their industries function, the old 'survival of the fittest' mentality of a disposable workforce became counter productive. It was enlightened industrialists who promoted better working conditions, decades before the Labour Party was born, because they knew it made economic sense in the bigger picture. The reason why we need government level action and legislation to apply such improvements to all, is that while more enlightened working structures and social support is far better for employers over the longer term, in the short term, those who cut corners gain an advantage, so unless that advantage is closed down by law, the better companies are unable to take over the marketplace and force standards to rise everywhere. I don't believe Danny is as stupid as he pretends to be. He knows this, and he knows that he doesn't actually believe the shite that he posts. Unfortunately, I think he's one of the few posters on here - possibly the only regular poster - who posts deliberately inflammatory material for his own kicks. The rest of us are at least trying to make a fist of an intelligent discussion. Sadly, it does pollute the board. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Feb 5, 2024 11:28:16 GMT
Just reposted this to highlight what remarkably ugly things you post on here. That is just astonishing: to follow that logic why don't we just return to life in a state of nature when everyone can die before they are forty years old. I am glad I have blocked @danny as such misanthropy is truly scary. Ironically I don't think Danny is exactly a spring chicken himself. It's just him trying to get a 'gasp' reaction again. He was always a bit more erm 'imaginative' as a poster but he didn't used to be like this. Covid (the pandemic rather than a specific case of the disease) seems to have deranged him and since then he seems to have more and more of a need to get a reaction through provocation. It's sad really. Like you I blocked him a while ago. |
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Post by kay9 on Feb 5, 2024 11:30:06 GMT
There was NOT a full stop after the three words you quoted. 👎 |
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