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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2024 12:39:39 GMT
Latest Labour leads by pollster 27 YouGov 25 WeThink 22 PeoplePolling 19 Redfield & Wilton 18 Techne 17 Savanta 17 Deltapoll 14 Opinium 15 More In Common Quick mental arithmetic shows average of 19.33333 (etc). Did it quickly so might be out. Probably not as I got 100% in my 11 plus.
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Post by robbiealive on Jan 22, 2024 12:41:12 GMT
Truro and Falmouth: Overview PREDICTION: LAB GAIN FROM CON MP at 2019: Cherilyn Mackrory (CON) County/Area: Cornwall (South West) Electorate: 76,719 Turnout: 77.2% 2019 Pred Votes 2024 CON 27,237 46.0% 26.7% LAB 22,676 38.3% 41.7% LIB 7,150 12.1% 14.5% Green 1,714 2.9% 6.8% OTH 413 0.7% 1.2% Reform 0 0.0% 9.2% CON Majority 4,561 7.7% Pred Maj 15.0% The vote movements in that predicted result are interesting: RefUK +9.2 Green + 3.9 Labour +3.4 (winners) Lib Dem +2.4 Other +0.5 Conservative -19.3 It's a complicated story. 1/ From the '50s until 1992 the seat was plain Truro. Until 1974 a Tory seat with Labour 2nd. The combined Lab & Lib vote was usually much greater than the Tory one. 2. In '74 David Penhaligon burst on the scene . You're probably too young to remember him. He was a dynamic candidate & a probably next Lib leader until killed in a car crash. In 1974 he galvanised Labour tactical voters (thrusting Labour into 3rd place, where they were to remain for 43 years!, ha ha)), & in October '74 won the seat. It remained Liberal until 2010, tho undergoing a change to Truro & St Austell. 3. In 2010 it became Truro & Falmouth & was won (surprisingly?) by the Tories with a tiny majorityty. In 2015 the Liberal vote collapsed. In 2017 Labour finally got back to 2nd place close behind the Tories.. 4. In 2019 Ms Mackrory, having served as a councillor for a year, & with no other obvious qualification, won the seat, with Labour second. 5. The prediction is indeed a bit odd. In 2015, UKIP got 11%, so 10% for RefUK not outlandish. The Green vote is strong, as you might expect here, but in 2017 it collapsed, suiggesting a high dgree of tactical voting? This might occur again. The Liberal vote is sort of down to its bedrock. If they can sort things out, Labour should win. The MP's mission statement. " Cherilyn Mackrory is the Conservative MP for Truro and Falmouth. She is passionate about protecting the environment, investing in the NHS and local infrastructure and increasing opportunities and housing in the constituency, as well as supporting the Government to build back better from COVID-19"She seems to support causes in which her party has little or no interest. Perhaps she hasn't noticed, skulking & trembling behind her door as it's besieged by elderly women wielding cyanide-tipped drawing pins.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2024 12:43:36 GMT
The famous “optics” quite possibly won’t look great for Labour as we near the GE. I’m quite certain that a lot of Tories are sulking when they are giving their opinions and are absolutely certain to return to their natural party later in the year.
Which means all the coverage will be about “the gap closing”. Especially in the Tory supporting press and TV channels.
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Post by robbiealive on Jan 22, 2024 12:52:41 GMT
robbiealive “ Dear Steve, I know why they raid at dawn. I've seen enough crime movies. Have you seen “The Drawing Pin” trilogy? A genuinely riveting mystery drama. Yes I have. It was written by Thomas Aquinas or was it Dun Scotus. The original title was "How Many Police Officers Can Dance on the Head of a (Drawing) Pin". I don't balme the coppers. It's just a ludicrous business.
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Post by graham on Jan 22, 2024 13:01:41 GMT
The famous “optics” quite possibly won’t look great for Labour as we near the GE. I’m quite certain that a lot of Tories are sulking when they are giving their opinions and are absolutely certain to return to their natural party later in the year. Which means all the coverage will be about “the gap closing”. Especially in the Tory supporting press and TV channels. The Labour poll lead narrowed quite a bit in early 1997 compared with 1995 and much of 1996 but the 'gap closing' narrative never really took hold. Only when the lead becomes fairly narrow does that tend to become a point of focus. A week before Polling Day in 1997 the media did become excited when a rogue ICM poll showed Labour's lead down to just 5% - though it was contradicted by other polls.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jan 22, 2024 13:11:15 GMT
colin But where did/does Sunak's reputation for "competence and getting things" done come from? His time as Chancellor, perhaps, but isn't that reputation, formed primarily during the early days of the pandemic, now largely tarnished following subsequent revelations of appalling waste and inefficiency related to all of his originally acclaimed financial packages? I wonder if this is another case of a politician whose virtues and abilities are claimed by a client media with little or no evidence of the recipient of their sycophancy remotely possessing them? Figments of their fevered and ever loyal imagination. Well the press/media, tend to give conservative politicians an easy ride, and don't delve too deeply into their backgrounds/record, while often distorting that of their political opponents. With Sunak the fact that his wife's family, and he himself, are v. wealthy couldn't be hidden, but his background in banking/the city (not the most popular of professions) tends to get glossed over.
He was only elected as an MP in '15, and rose to prominence due to the chaos in the conservative party and Brexit. Post '15, effective government ceased, their really is no record of delivery on anything, apart from a highly damaging Brexit deal and an incompetent, financially costly response to Covid. Sunak's alleged competence was clearly the creation of Tory sympathisers and propogandists. Also he was only made chancellor because Javid had done a bunk and there wasn't really anyone else.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2024 13:24:01 GMT
robbiealive “ Dear Steve, I know why they raid at dawn. I've seen enough crime movies. Have you seen “The Drawing Pin” trilogy? A genuinely riveting mystery drama. Yes I have. It was written by Thomas Aquinas or was it Dun Scotus. The original title was "How Many Police Officers Can Dance on the Head of a (Drawing) Pin". I don't balme the coppers. It's just a ludicrous business. I had thought that the one I saw had been directed by Albert Hitchcock but when I googled it it turns out that I had misremembered… it was actually Albert Tatlock: I thought he did a very good job of it - even though the trilogy made it feel quite long. Oddly he never directed another film.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jan 22, 2024 13:28:06 GMT
Hi neilj , that shows that across all demographics (including Tory voters) the electorate isn't sold on the small state, neo-liberal economic model. I also assume that support for gvt spending/role is stronger currently due to the overall economic situation and increased demand for services provided by the state. I guess the difference between 25-49, and the over 50s is due the fact that the under 50's don't use public services as much but in general pay in the more in terms of tax than they get back. My faith on this will be restored when I see hard ballot box evidence rather than just opinion poll responses. Which does beg the question as to why you spend so much time on site that's supposedly dedicated to the discussion opinion polls, if you have so little faith in the latter?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2024 13:32:49 GMT
Germany will get through this because of the solidity of it's institutions, safeguards and economy. I'm more worried about what the tory party will turn into in opposition.. I'm sure you are right. But given these are the very "institutions" which define democracy ,as distinguished from the autocracy which currently seeks to replace us ; I imagine they will think long and hard about disenfranchising 20% of German voters. Given all that you say about attitudes in the East, to treat them as unreasonable second class citizens , not to be trusted to vote is hardly a convincing political response to their grievances. RE your last sentence , you must be the only person in the country to be worried about that. No doubt it will be deeply grateful.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jan 22, 2024 13:38:22 GMT
Those interested in how party support and tactical voting are likely to affect the number of seats that parties win at the next General Election, which must be a few on this board to judge by the number of footie-related and covid posts on here, may like to read Ben Ansell's latest missive on Substack: How Bad Can It Get for the Conservatives?I am not going to attempt to summarise it; just read it. Hi leftieliberal, interesting and obviously I've just spent most of my lunch break playing around with the App. I'm sceptical of any model that doesn't give a party an OM with a basic 10% lead. I put in con 30% lab 40% (which I think is going to be pretty close to the actual result) and I didn't tinker with the tactical voting, and Lab fell short of an OM by about 20, and the SNP had 53 seats. So overall I am assuming his model is actually underestimating how well Lab would do.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2024 13:40:37 GMT
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 22, 2024 13:41:10 GMT
robbiealive - you are too generous to me age wise, in that I do indeed remember David Penhaligon, although more for the shock of his death and the subsequent by-election that returned Matthew Taylor. I was 25 when he died.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 22, 2024 13:51:11 GMT
Interesting and something I've thought for a while Worth remembering also that swing back for the 1997 election started 18 months out and that was in the context of a rapidly improving economy Now we're less than 10 months out and still no sign of any swingback
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2024 14:01:05 GMT
Now we're less than 10 months out and still no sign of any slingback I know-all you ever see are those awful Crocs these days-there is no sense of style anymore
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Post by James E on Jan 22, 2024 14:08:44 GMT
Those interested in how party support and tactical voting are likely to affect the number of seats that parties win at the next General Election, which must be a few on this board to judge by the number of footie-related and covid posts on here, may like to read Ben Ansell's latest missive on Substack: How Bad Can It Get for the Conservatives?I am not going to attempt to summarise it; just read it. Ben also has a new version of his app which includes the new boundaries, so you can see what will happen in your own constituency, depending on what assumptions (including tactical voting) you put in. Ben also makes a comment about tactical voting, which may seem obvious to us aficionados but is not easily captured in models. In those constituencies where they weigh the Labour vote rather than count it, there is no incentive for Liberal Democrat and Green supporters to vote tactically as Labour will win anyway and the only interest that the Liberal Democrats and the Greens have is saving their deposits. So Liberal Democrats and Greens voting tactically will be mainly in those Tory-Labour marginals where the outcome is uncertain on polling day and tactical voting will have a larger effect than would be expected from the assumption it is spread uniformly across the country. Thanks for that. It is an interesting article, and I agreee that Tactical Voting will be a significant factor in GE2024/5. It is clear from all recent by-elections that voters are willing to line up behind Lab in their target seats and LDs in theirs, and the squeeze on whichever of Lab and LDs is third has never been greater. However, I cannot agree with his contention that tactical voting is the sole or main reason for the YouGov MRP model to produce a far better outcome than UNS for Labour. And that is what he claims at one point: "The MRP gives Labour a 120 seat majority, with 385 seats to the Conservatives’ 169. Now if you plug the poll numbers into most election calculators you don’t get a seat difference anywhere near that large. So something is going on. What is that? Very high levels of tactical voting." The real 'something else' is proportional losses by the Tories. To take some of those by-elections we have had in the past 13 months: the recent by-elections in Tamworth and Selby saw Labour achieve huge 23-24% swings at a time when the polls were showing them around 18% ahead (or a 15% swing). However, somewhat larger Labour poll leads in Dec 2022 saw them hold Chester and Stretford and Urmiston on swings of just 13.5% and 10% respectively. But these results were entirely consistent: The Conservatives' vote in each of Chester and Stretford &U was 0.58 of its 2019 share. And then when defending Selby they held 0.57 of their 2019 and Tamworth it was 0.61. 'Tactical Voting' can explain why Labour or LDs receive a larger-than-average boost in a target consituency, but it can never explain why the Tories losses are larger where they are defending, as is clearly happening in both by-elections and detailed polling.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 22, 2024 14:42:44 GMT
"Did it quickly so might be out. Probably not as I got 100% in my 11 plus."
Don't be silly Paul it wasn't introduced until 1944!
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 22, 2024 14:44:11 GMT
I think this is stretching the definition of 'Popular'
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jan 22, 2024 14:49:50 GMT
domjg I was very interested in your posts about Germany. I wonder whether part of the problem of different parts not understanding each other is that it wasn't even unified until 1871 and that only lasted (first time round) for just over 70 years - less than a lifetime. Ignoring Ireland for the moment as it complicates things, mainland UK has been unified for over 400 years and yet there are still strong nationalist movements in Wales and of course particularly Scotland. You know a lot more about Germany than I do (or probably anyone else on here) so I'm interested in your opinion. domjg I'd second all that, thank you! I was particularly interested in what you said about the feeling of swapping Soviet overlords for West German ones, do you think a similar feeling would extend further back in various places in the east, that they were pretty much suborned into a unified Germany in the first place and then subjected to Prussian dominance? Cos 150 years (maybe nearer 200 years with the various trading precursors) seems like it could build up a tremendous amount of generational resentment at always being ruled by and for Others. I honestly don't know. Much of what is now east Germany, (the 'new federal states', I should say) was originally part of Brandenburg Prussia (Saxony, the notoriously right wing state around Dresden wasn't though), so would have been the dominant part of the new German state after 1870. I'm not sure in that sense they'd have had any greater longterm grievance than say the Bavarians or Swabians who are quite different traditionally in culture and religion (Catholic to Prussian Protestant). A comment sticks in my mind that a guy with a strong South German accent made to me when visiting some historic site in Potsdam I think it was, as a student. There was some memorial to victims of the Nazis and he said something along the lines of 'Look what these damn Pifkes caused..', 'Pifke' being a derogatory term for a Prussian or North German. I did think that was a bit rich of him at the time as the NSDAP kind of had it's roots in Bavaria. With East Germany I think it's probably just the postwar experience. Forty five years was long enough for quite a distinct identity to be created, especially when they were completely cut off from the rest of the German speaking world culturally and economically*. I can remember reading about how far the languages were beginning to diverge in that time. It was failing to take that separate identity into account that I think has caused a lot of the resentment, especially among the older population. When unification took place all GDR structures were swept away, almost as if the west wanted to pretend they'd never existed. Millions of people who were employed by and had been loyal to those structures and their families would I imagine have experienced quite a lot of dislocation and resentment. *though thinking about it most of them I think were able at least some of the time to access West German radio and sometimes TV broadcasts.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 22, 2024 14:55:05 GMT
. "It wasn't an allegation: she was charged & arrested."
Actually to be pedantic she wasn't charged , that would happen at a police station , she was arrested for the purposes of the search and then de arrested. It was in my opinion an absurd waste of time for something so trivial that any magistrate with a brain cell would look at the charge, if it ever got that far and think de minimis. The chances of it getting to court are equally de minimis.
The chances of the individual being charged with and going to court for criminal damage by drawing pin are close to zero unless the cps in Devon and Cornwall also have far too much time on their hands.
I suppose she could ask for three other drawing pins to be taken into consideration.
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Post by alec on Jan 22, 2024 15:16:13 GMT
@fecklessmiser - "Quick mental arithmetic shows average of 19.33333 (etc).
Did it quickly so might be out. Probably not as I got 100% in my 11 plus."
11 plus what?
I'm not surprised you got 100% if they didn't even tell you what to add.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jan 22, 2024 15:19:58 GMT
domjg As others have already said, that was an extraordinarily interesting post about German reunification and its aftermath. Thank you for your insights. Fascinating as well as educational. You touched on something that had struck me on my various trips around old eastern Europe since the communist states fell and became nascent liberal democracies. My experience is much more superficial and anecdotal than yours, but I did detect, from conversations with the people of those countries, of various generations, some nostalgia for elements of communism. This was particularly so of the generation that emerged from the 1930s recessions and the second world war. Communism freed them from the spectre of unemployment and all the deprivations that once came from this. Poverty, homelessness, hunger and loss of self-esteem. The state provided safety nets on health and education too. Capitalism, they felt, held the prospect of a higher standard of living but returned fear and uncertainty to their lives too. The younger generations, from what I could tell, didn't have any of this yearning for the past, and treasured the personal liberties that were largely denied their parents, but they recognised that their parents and grandparents were more sceptical about the gains and more concerned about what they felt they'd lost I was always intrigued how communist political parties survived, even prospered, electorally in some of these countries long after the communist police states had been dismantled and a democracy of sorts established. I've not visited East Germany, apart from East Berlin, but I wonder if any of this communist nostalgia persists and still colours the political and social attitudes in that part of Germany? On my travels, I felt it most in the former Yugoslavia and in Romania and Bulgaria, but I detected strands of it in all of the countries of old Eastern Europe that I visited. Thanks crossbat. It's nice to feel like I've actually been informative for once rather than just taking part in the all too common partisan ping-pong! GDR nostalgia is, or at least was last time I was there, a big thing with companies even making replicas of old communist era food stuffs etc. There's even a German word for it: Ostalgie, a play on Nostalgie, nostalgia.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2024 15:23:21 GMT
They should at least offer an alternative event to promote unpopular Conservatism. Realistically that’s all they’ve got to offer and I’m sure if they explained it better they could make it even more unpopular.
Worth a go surely?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2024 15:29:05 GMT
@fecklessmiser - "Quick mental arithmetic shows average of 19.33333 (etc). Did it quickly so might be out. Probably not as I got 100% in my 11 plus." 11 plus what? I'm not surprised you got 100% if they didn't even tell you what to add. Be interesting to look back at those papers and see just what the level was. I remember lots of question about gallons and complex multiplication and division and stuff like filling a gallon bucket that leaked so much per second then being asked how much water would be left by the time you got it home from the well if you walked at x speed and did y distance. i found them easy- though not that relevant to my own life…
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Post by guymonde on Jan 22, 2024 15:45:12 GMT
colin But where did/does Sunak's reputation for "competence and getting things" done come from? His time as Chancellor, perhaps, but isn't that reputation, formed primarily during the early days of the pandemic, now largely tarnished following subsequent revelations of appalling waste and inefficiency related to all of his originally acclaimed financial packages? I wonder if this is another case of a politician whose virtues and abilities are claimed by a client media with little or no evidence of the recipient of their sycophancy remotely possessing them? Figments of their fevered and ever loyal imagination. Well the press/media, tend to give conservative politicians an easy ride, and don't delve too deeply into their backgrounds/record, while often distorting that of their political opponents. With Sunak the fact that his wife's family, and he himself, are v. wealthy couldn't be hidden, but his background in banking/the city (not the most popular of professions) tends to get glossed over.
He was only elected as an MP in '15, and rose to prominence due to the chaos in the conservative party and Brexit. Post '15, effective government ceased, their really is no record of delivery on anything, apart from a highly damaging Brexit deal and an incompetent, financially costly response to Covid. Sunak's alleged competence was clearly the creation of Tory sympathisers and propogandists.
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Post by guymonde on Jan 22, 2024 15:47:52 GMT
colin But where did/does Sunak's reputation for "competence and getting things" done come from? His time as Chancellor, perhaps, but isn't that reputation, formed primarily during the early days of the pandemic, now largely tarnished following subsequent revelations of appalling waste and inefficiency related to all of his originally acclaimed financial packages? I wonder if this is another case of a politician whose virtues and abilities are claimed by a client media with little or no evidence of the recipient of their sycophancy remotely possessing them? Figments of their fevered and ever loyal imagination. Well the press/media, tend to give conservative politicians an easy ride, and don't delve too deeply into their backgrounds/record, while often distorting that of their political opponents. With Sunak the fact that his wife's family, and he himself, are v. wealthy couldn't be hidden, but his background in banking/the city (not the most popular of professions) tends to get glossed over.
He was only elected as an MP in '15, and rose to prominence due to the chaos in the conservative party and Brexit. Post '15, effective government ceased, their really is no record of delivery on anything, apart from a highly damaging Brexit deal and an incompetent, financially costly response to Covid. Sunak's alleged competence was clearly the creation of Tory sympathisers and propogandists. But he comes over to a casual observer (me included, mea culpa) as relatively sensible. The impression is reinforced by reference to the bunch of nincompoops who provide the comparison in the Tory party.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 22, 2024 16:26:19 GMT
My faith on this will be restored when I see hard ballot box evidence rather than just opinion poll responses. Which does beg the question as to why you spend so much time on site that's supposedly dedicated to the discussion opinion polls, if you have so little faith in the latter? It's posters like your good self who just keep me coming back for more!
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Post by mark61 on Jan 22, 2024 16:46:24 GMT
Thanks to domjg for the informative and thought Provoking posts on the GDR etc, Any posters here see Deutchsland 83 and it's sequels on C4 when it aired? Not only very entertaining but a window into the GDR and the Cold War. May still be on My4.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 22, 2024 16:48:15 GMT
domjg"Thanks crossbat. It's nice to feel like I've actually been informative for once rather than just taking part in the all too common partisan ping-pong! GDR nostalgia is, or at least was last time I was there, a big thing with companies even making replicas of old communist era food stuffs etc. There's even a German word for it: Ostalgie, a play on Nostalgie, nostalgia."I hear Partisan Ping Pong may well be included in the 2032 Olympic Games. It's possible I may be chosen for the GB team if the sport does end up being included. I qualify automatically having submitted over 4,000 purely partisan posts to UKPR. Trevor may well be our team captain! Ostalgie sounds a great word. The Ost part having shades of the East about it too. I remember going into a shop in the Estonian capital Tallinn many years ago and being surprised how much old Soviet memorabilia was on sale in there. There were portraits of Stalin too. I came across shops selling merchandise like this in other East European capital cities too. The sentiment I encountered was more anti-Russian than anti-communist, albeit I suspect there was no great wish to go back to that system. Old Soviet style milk bars in Krakow was another surprise as was Statue Park in Budapest with lots of Lenin monuments on show. No Stalin there, though. I think one of the great tragedies, and innate contradictions too, in many of these countries was that their liberators from Nazism became their long-standing oppressors. Deep gratitude and celebration mutating to eternal resentment and distrust. This was still a tangible sentiment, I felt, and well tended shrines to the Russian dead were dotted around many of the cities and towns I visited; mournful and ever-present reminders of the terrible transmutation.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 22, 2024 16:56:40 GMT
mark61 You will note that I haven't replied to your passing reference to very selective past Blues v Villa results. I thought better of it at the time, mainly because even an Issue Specific Thread all on its own, devoted to past derby games, couldn't do justice to the bragging rights badinage that would surely follow. The Gabby Agbonlahor goals, the Super Jack Grealish goals, the Gary Cahill overhead kick in front of the Holte, John Carew Carew, he scores a goal or two, he's bigger than me and you Jonh Carew, Car.... UTV P.S. Alan Hutton, anyone. The Scottish Cafu??!!
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 22, 2024 17:01:03 GMT
Redfield Wilton
Labour leads by 23%.
Lowest Conservative % since Rishi Sunak became PM. Westminster Voting Intention (21 Jan) Labour 45% (+1) Conservative 22% (-3) Reform UK 12% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 2% (-1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 14 Jan'
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