pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 22, 2024 8:30:41 GMT
Immigrants being, by definition, energetic and driven people who want to get on, don't tend to end up in places like Ashfield. They gravitate naturally to the cities where the best work and prospects for advancement are. Population statistics confirm that point. So, no, immigrants are not competing for jobs in 'left behind areas' and keeping wages low. The persistent failures of governments to do anything serious about creating and sustaining new industries as well as protecting old ones from unfair competition has far more to do with that. You're very likely right about fairly recent immigrants but a lot of those that arrived in the latter half of the 20th century moved to major industrial centres , for the very reasons you outline, Since industry left the building they have become part of the left behinds. As some have been here for 50 years or so and have one or two generations of descendants they're not exactly new arrivals competing for jobs but are often depicted that way by the right. If they have been here 50 years then they are not in any meaningful sense immigrants (whatever the colour of their skin or their religion) - I think we are agreeing on that.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,417
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 22, 2024 8:39:04 GMT
Truro and Falmouth: Overview PREDICTION: LAB GAIN FROM CON MP at 2019: Cherilyn Mackrory (CON) County/Area: Cornwall (South West) Electorate: 76,719 Turnout: 77.2% 2019 Pred Votes 2024 CON 27,237 46.0% 26.7% LAB 22,676 38.3% 41.7% LIB 7,150 12.1% 14.5% Green 1,714 2.9% 6.8% OTH 413 0.7% 1.2% Reform 0 0.0% 9.2% CON Majority 4,561 7.7% Pred Maj 15.0% The vote movements in that predicted result are interesting: RefUK +9.2 Green + 3.9 Labour +3.4 (winners) Lib Dem +2.4 Other +0.5 Conservative -19.3
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 22, 2024 8:56:12 GMT
Spot on, people prioritise better public services to tax cuts 'This is a classic example of a sub-section of a parliamentary party confusing what they like with what voters want.'
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 22, 2024 9:13:24 GMT
domjg
As others have already said, that was an extraordinarily interesting post about German reunification and its aftermath.
Thank you for your insights. Fascinating as well as educational.
You touched on something that had struck me on my various trips around old eastern Europe since the communist states fell and became nascent liberal democracies. My experience is much more superficial and anecdotal than yours, but I did detect, from conversations with the people of those countries, of various generations, some nostalgia for elements of communism. This was particularly so of the generation that emerged from the 1930s recessions and the second world war. Communism freed them from the spectre of unemployment and all the deprivations that once came from this. Poverty, homelessness, hunger and loss of self-esteem. The state provided safety nets on health and education too. Capitalism, they felt, held the prospect of a higher standard of living but returned fear and uncertainty to their lives too. The younger generations, from what I could tell, didn't have any of this yearning for the past, and treasured the personal liberties that were largely denied their parents, but they recognised that their parents and grandparents were more sceptical about the gains and more concerned about what they felt they'd lost
I was always intrigued how communist political parties survived, even prospered, electorally in some of these countries long after the communist police states had been dismantled and a democracy of sorts established.
I've not visited East Germany, apart from East Berlin, but I wonder if any of this communist nostalgia persists and still colours the political and social attitudes in that part of Germany?
On my travels, I felt it most in the former Yugoslavia and in Romania and Bulgaria, but I detected strands of it in all of the countries of old Eastern Europe that I visited.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jan 22, 2024 9:16:51 GMT
Hi neilj , that shows that across all demographics (including Tory voters) the electorate isn't sold on the small state, neo-liberal economic model. I also assume that support for gvt spending/role is stronger currently due to the overall economic situation and increased demand for services provided by the state. I guess the difference between 25-49, and the over 50s is due the fact that the under 50's don't use public services as much but in general pay in the more in terms of tax than they get back.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2024 9:17:10 GMT
Apologies, this is a bit of a ramble. I've been discussing this topic with a (West) German friend this weekend. We agreed that the momentum of unification did not take into account the hugely different cultural backgrounds that Westerners and Easterners had lived under for over forty years. It would probably have been culturally (and certainly economically) far easier to unite West Germany with Finland than with East Germany at the time. It seemed to us that many Easterners came to feel after the initial euphoria that they were exchanging one overlord (the Soviet Union) for another in the Federal Republic despite the Western tax payer having showered billions on the East including exchanging east Marks for D marks at unification so effectively giving east Germans millions in free money. Unlike other eastern block states they never got 'independence' and a sense of driving their own destiny, or destiny restored as, say, the Poles felt. In hindsight it would have maybe done them great good to have remained an independent democratic state and work out what they wanted but the emotional juggernaut of unification, manipulated, I would say, by Helmut Kohl tolerated no doubts. In Eastern Germany now there seems to be a lingering, almost colonial subject type bitterness that poisons their relationship to the rest of Germany and to the federal govt not helped by lots of genuine condescension on the part of Westerners. They seem to have a sense that they never had their own agency or made their own decisions, which they didn't. I was also reading a German political commentator this weekend who said that anyone above 45-50 will have been socialised in a dictatorship and many have not been able to shake off that legacy. Another factor I think is that in Soviet times and in the 90s/2000s East Germans were used to great state largesse from someone, and while economically things have often been far from rosy there's always been some state overlord willing to shower cash on them beyond what they otherwise would have had. Though obviously not in any way free they were by far the wealthiest of the eastern block states and all basic material needs were taken care of. That's all over now and I think many of them perhaps became too used to it. I'd also say that by 1990 West Germany had gone through a quite traumatic and thorough facing up to it's Nazi past and the responsibility that came with it. Nothing like that had taken place in the east, in a similar way to Austria (who clung to the fiction of being the first occupied nation). East Germans were told by their leaders that they were a new nation, absolved of responsibility as wicked capitalist West Germany was the sole successor to (and in communist propaganda the continuance of) Nazi Germany. So they had never been asked to properly face up to that which obviously was bound to cause problems. My friend said to me 'We thought they wanted the same things as us but we didn't realise how different they were'. I think what they wanted and feel they never had was to make decisions for themselves but they also got caught up on the emotional whirl of unification and knew the West Germans would shower then with cash. My friend and I jokingly suggested putting the border back up and she said 'yes, we could call it Western Hungary'. There's really no love lost.. I shouldn't over generalise. There are plenty of liberal, highly successful places in the East (other than Berlin of course) such as the city of Leipzig and also it would be daft to pretend the AfD doesn't have a following in the West though at nowhere near the same level. However in the east there have also been, and for decades, some remote villages effectively controlled by neo Nazis that the state barely interacts with. It remains a very different place. No apologies needed !-That is a fascinating insight. Thank you. Its a lesson , if one was needed, in the stickability of cultural norms and identities. They are ignored at a politician's peril. The following in the West which you acknowledge is presumably more a reaction to policy effects. Is Sholz suffering from Merkel's mistakes on Energy & Russia ? What an incredible change in fortune in that country-nothing is forever !
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 22, 2024 9:26:59 GMT
Hi neilj , that shows that across all demographics (including Tory voters) the electorate isn't sold on the small state, neo-liberal economic model. I also assume that support for gvt spending/role is stronger currently due to the overall economic situation and increased demand for services provided by the state. I guess the difference between 25-49, and the over 50s is due the fact that the under 50's don't use public services as much but in general pay in the more in terms of tax than they get back. My faith on this will be restored when I see hard ballot box evidence rather than just opinion poll responses. That is when voters put into office a party that is pledged to increase taxation in order to repair the public realm. My fear is that they often vote for the tax cutters and cakeists instead.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,417
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 22, 2024 9:29:36 GMT
Spot on, people prioritise better public services to tax cuts 'This is a classic example of a sub-section of a parliamentary party confusing what they like with what voters want.' Some of the Tories I know take the view that people say things like that in opinion polls but in the privacy of the ballot box vote for low taxes. Cynical perhaps, but there is evidence that people are in favour of taxation provided that someone else is paying for it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2024 9:33:11 GMT
This says it all really. The only thing Sunak had left was a claim to competence-getting things done.
This will not just affect the young mothers involved , but their wider families too.
"Thousands of parents have been warned they will be unable to access the government’s flagship free-childcare offer this year because of issues with the rollout. Ministers have pledged that all two-year-olds will be eligible for 15 free hours of childcare a week from April while nine-month-olds will be eligible for the scheme in September. But senior Whitehall sources said lights were “flashing red all over the board” over the £4 billion plan as nurseries warned that they will not be able to start the scheme in time.
They have not been told how much they will be paid for each of the places on offer despite the fact it is due to be up and running in less than three months. Many nursery chains have told existing parents that they cannot guarantee that their children will be entitled to the new free hours while others have said that it will be “impossible” to extend the offer to nine-month-olds in September. At the same time IT complexities with HMRC systems mean that up to 25,000 families will need to re-confirm their status with the taxman in March or face delays in accessing the new payments. In addition, the Department for Education is also facing a £120 million budget shortfall after miscalculating the cost of the scheme in its first year. It was forced to correct a mistake it made when allocating money to councils to fund childcare providers that would have resulted in them not being paid for all the hours they were being asked to provide.
The mistake has led to delays in processing the scheme with some councils not expected to tell childcare providers how much they will get until the day before the scheme is due to go live on April 1. Senior figures in the sector said that the vast majority of nurseries would not decide how many of the new “free” hours they would provide until they knew how much funding they were getting for each place. This is expected to delay the rollout of places both for two-year-olds and the pledge to extend it to children more than nine-months-old from September.
“September is going to be an absolute shit show,” a Whitehall source. “There’s going to be parents that just don’t get their places.”
From "Free childcare: Sunak’s pledge undermined by funding fiasco" Times today
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 22, 2024 9:35:06 GMT
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 22, 2024 9:43:20 GMT
colinBut where did/does Sunak's reputation for "competence and getting things" done come from? His time as Chancellor, perhaps, but isn't that reputation, formed primarily during the early days of the pandemic, now largely tarnished following subsequent revelations of appalling waste and inefficiency related to all of his originally acclaimed financial packages? I wonder if this is another case of a politician whose virtues and abilities are claimed by a client media with little or no evidence of the recipient of their sycophancy remotely possessing them? Figments of their fevered and ever loyal imagination.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2024 9:48:49 GMT
colin But where did/does Sunak's reputation for "competence and getting things" done come from? His time as Chancellor, perhaps, but isn't that reputation, formed primarily during the early days of the pandemic, now largely tarnished following subsequent revelations of appalling waste and inefficiency related to all of his originally acclaimed financial packages? I wonder if this is another case of a politician whose virtues and abilities are claimed by a client media with little or no evidence of the recipient of their sycophancy remotely possessing then? Figments of their fevered and ever loyal imagination. I didn't say that he had one ( and there would be no point you and I debating whether he had or not). My - "The only thing Sunak had left was a claim to competence-getting things done." was intended to convey "the demonstrable ability to claim competence".
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Post by mandolinist on Jan 22, 2024 10:08:07 GMT
anent the non-existent free childcare places.
This failure will become a very nasty trap for parents who are being migrated off child tax credits and onto universal credit. The rules for the two support mechanisms are significantly different. Whilst under the tax credit system only one parent has to be working more than 30 hours a week, under UC both parents of children over 2years old must work for a minimum of 30 hours a week to qualify. How is childcare to be found, organised and paid for? What kind of society requires that 2 year olds must be in childcare for at least 30 hours a week? No wonder so many children are living in poverty and parents and children are suffering from increased mental health problems. Bring back Gordon Brown, please.
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Post by isa on Jan 22, 2024 10:43:25 GMT
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Post by alec on Jan 22, 2024 10:48:16 GMT
Some decidedly strange economic briefings and data this morning, suggesting the economy is not so much as heading in any one particular direction, but more seems stuck on some kind of merry-go-round, with no real clue when it will get off.
Ernst & Young and a couple of others are suggesting that the UK is probably now in a technical recession, although the same report is talking in more optimistic terms about a recovery in the latter half of 2024 and thereafter. This is based on the idea of falling inflation, potential tax cuts and a return to better levels of investment.
However, Begbies Traynor are today flagging up a large (25%) jump in the number of companies reporting 'critical financial stress', with major debt issues, particularly in the real estate and construction sector raising many concerns. The stock market seems quite bullish, although profit reports coming through from a few companies are quite gloomy, and consumer confidence appears strained, along with business nerves about global geopolitcal factors.
I'm not entirely convinced that anyone really has a handle on where the economy is actually going. The only real certainty appears to be that there won't be a rapid UK pick up this side of an election, so although things might be on the mend by the time we vote, it will be the winners of the election that reap any significant reward, although the chance of further economic strain remains a live threat.
One thing that is depressingly entertaining: we're used to the neoliberal agenda setters by now, and the way the media blindly follows in the normalisation of whatever policy prognosis the far right billionaires want to project at any given time. We all remember the fabled Harvard Economic paper which claimed that debt to GDP ratios of 80%+ were terminal to western market economies, and was a key justification for austerity? What a lot of bollocks that was. At a time of prolonged, record low interest rates when borrowing was cheap, the neolibs conned everyone into thinking we couldn't afford to invest and ordinary people would have to bear the brunt through lower spending and higher taxes.
Now, with UK debt hovering around the 100% mark and the cost of money several times more expensive than in 2010, the answer is....completely butchered public services and ....tax cuts!
The only thing more pathetic than how wrong the neolibs have been about everything is how supine the mainstream media has been about their constant pivots, flips and switchbacks.
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Post by isa on Jan 22, 2024 10:49:11 GMT
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jan 22, 2024 11:03:20 GMT
Apologies, this is a bit of a ramble. I've been discussing this topic with a (West) German friend this weekend. We agreed that the momentum of unification did not take into account the hugely different cultural backgrounds that Westerners and Easterners had lived under for over forty years. It would probably have been culturally (and certainly economically) far easier to unite West Germany with Finland than with East Germany at the time. It seemed to us that many Easterners came to feel after the initial euphoria that they were exchanging one overlord (the Soviet Union) for another in the Federal Republic despite the Western tax payer having showered billions on the East including exchanging east Marks for D marks at unification so effectively giving east Germans millions in free money. Unlike other eastern block states they never got 'independence' and a sense of driving their own destiny, or destiny restored as, say, the Poles felt. In hindsight it would have maybe done them great good to have remained an independent democratic state and work out what they wanted but the emotional juggernaut of unification, manipulated, I would say, by Helmut Kohl tolerated no doubts. In Eastern Germany now there seems to be a lingering, almost colonial subject type bitterness that poisons their relationship to the rest of Germany and to the federal govt not helped by lots of genuine condescension on the part of Westerners. They seem to have a sense that they never had their own agency or made their own decisions, which they didn't. I was also reading a German political commentator this weekend who said that anyone above 45-50 will have been socialised in a dictatorship and many have not been able to shake off that legacy. Another factor I think is that in Soviet times and in the 90s/2000s East Germans were used to great state largesse from someone, and while economically things have often been far from rosy there's always been some state overlord willing to shower cash on them beyond what they otherwise would have had. Though obviously not in any way free they were by far the wealthiest of the eastern block states and all basic material needs were taken care of. That's all over now and I think many of them perhaps became too used to it. I'd also say that by 1990 West Germany had gone through a quite traumatic and thorough facing up to it's Nazi past and the responsibility that came with it. Nothing like that had taken place in the east, in a similar way to Austria (who clung to the fiction of being the first occupied nation). East Germans were told by their leaders that they were a new nation, absolved of responsibility as wicked capitalist West Germany was the sole successor to (and in communist propaganda the continuance of) Nazi Germany. So they had never been asked to properly face up to that which obviously was bound to cause problems. My friend said to me 'We thought they wanted the same things as us but we didn't realise how different they were'. I think what they wanted and feel they never had was to make decisions for themselves but they also got caught up on the emotional whirl of unification and knew the West Germans would shower then with cash. My friend and I jokingly suggested putting the border back up and she said 'yes, we could call it Western Hungary'. There's really no love lost.. I shouldn't over generalise. There are plenty of liberal, highly successful places in the East (other than Berlin of course) such as the city of Leipzig and also it would be daft to pretend the AfD doesn't have a following in the West though at nowhere near the same level. However in the east there have also been, and for decades, some remote villages effectively controlled by neo Nazis that the state barely interacts with. It remains a very different place. No apologies needed !-That is a fascinating insight. Thank you. Its a lesson , if one was needed, in the stickability of cultural norms and identities. They are ignored at a politician's peril. The following in the West which you acknowledge is presumably more a reaction to policy effects. Is Sholz suffering from Merkel's mistakes on Energy & Russia ? What an incredible change in fortune in that country-nothing is forever ! "The following in the West which you acknowledge is presumably more a reaction to policy effects. Is Sholz suffering from Merkel's mistakes on Energy & Russia ? What an incredible change in fortune in that country-nothing is forever !" - For balance I'm just acknowledging that the AfD is not solely an Eastern party though their support in Western states overall is probably significantly lower than support for the far right in other European countries though they did come a worrying and last minute third on 13% in the Hessen state elections last year. Will be interesting to see how these latest revelations affect western support for them. 1.4 million were apparently demonstrating against them at the weekend.. Without the eastern states the AfD would really be nowhere is the point and they currently have no prospect of gaining control of a western state. Germany will get through this because of the solidity of it's institutions, safeguards and economy. I'm more worried about what the tory party will turn into in opposition..
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Post by leftieliberal on Jan 22, 2024 11:05:53 GMT
Those interested in how party support and tactical voting are likely to affect the number of seats that parties win at the next General Election, which must be a few on this board to judge by the number of footie-related and covid posts on here, may like to read Ben Ansell's latest missive on Substack: How Bad Can It Get for the Conservatives?I am not going to attempt to summarise it; just read it. Ben also has a new version of his app which includes the new boundaries, so you can see what will happen in your own constituency, depending on what assumptions (including tactical voting) you put in. Ben also makes a comment about tactical voting, which may seem obvious to us aficionados but is not easily captured in models. In those constituencies where they weigh the Labour vote rather than count it, there is no incentive for Liberal Democrat and Green supporters to vote tactically as Labour will win anyway and the only interest that the Liberal Democrats and the Greens have is saving their deposits. So Liberal Democrats and Greens voting tactically will be mainly in those Tory-Labour marginals where the outcome is uncertain on polling day and tactical voting will have a larger effect than would be expected from the assumption it is spread uniformly across the country.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jan 22, 2024 11:21:14 GMT
domjg I was very interested in your posts about Germany. I wonder whether part of the problem of different parts not understanding each other is that it wasn't even unified until 1871 and that only lasted (first time round) for just over 70 years - less than a lifetime. Ignoring Ireland for the moment as it complicates things, mainland UK has been unified for over 400 years and yet there are still strong nationalist movements in Wales and of course particularly Scotland. You know a lot more about Germany than I do (or probably anyone else on here) so I'm interested in your opinion. Germany is definitely a far more localised country than say the UK, France or the Netherlands and regional identities and language remain very strongn with local dialects that are often mutually unintelligible. There has never been one main city like London or Paris or the Randstad around which everything revolves but multiple regional centres. For most of it's history Germany was a vague idea based on somewhat common language or a loose confederation of independent states rather than a country. Berlin just happened to the capital of the state than ended up taking over the other ones. If the Austrians had done it instead of the Prussians (they were also part of the loose German confederation) then Vienna would have ended up being the capital. 1933-45 aside it's always been a federation or group of independent or nominally semi-independent states which strong local identities. Bavaria for example, especially the southern part has far more in common linguistically, culturally to an extent and architecturally with Austria than it does with the red brick cities of the North which more resemble those of the Netherlands. One thing that's always struck me is that Berlin often seems quite remote and exotic to a lot of West Germans, almost as if it's another country, which is does kind of feel like, to me anyway. I always thought it would have made more sense to have Frankfurt as the capital, more in the middle between north and south as the plan was in fact at the time of the 1848 revolution: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frankfurt_ParliamentThough not a huge city Frankfurt is of course the economic hub and Frankfurt/Main airport remains the Heathrow of Germany while the new white elephant Berlin airport is a glorified regional one serving largely short haul European flights. In some ways, though actually much bigger city Berlin is the Ottawa to Frankfurt's Toronto.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 22, 2024 11:22:49 GMT
If they have been here 50 years then they are not in any meaningful sense immigrants (whatever the colour of their skin or their religion) - I think we are agreeing on that. Why would that be a useful definition? If there is anything which counterbalances the obvious that no one not born here can be a native, then it would surely have to do with the extent to which an immigrant has adopted local culture? On that basis, many third generation would not count, and arguably the problem the jews have faced over the centuries is that even after generations have lived and died in the same place, they maintain a distinct culture and self identity other than that where they are living.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jan 22, 2024 11:26:09 GMT
colin But where did/does Sunak's reputation for "competence and getting things" done come from? His time as Chancellor, perhaps, but isn't that reputation, formed primarily during the early days of the pandemic, now largely tarnished following subsequent revelations of appalling waste and inefficiency related to all of his originally acclaimed financial packages? I wonder if this is another case of a politician whose virtues and abilities are claimed by a client media with little or no evidence of the recipient of their sycophancy remotely possessing them? Figments of their fevered and ever loyal imagination. Well the press/media, tend to give conservative politicians an easy ride, and don't delve too deeply into their backgrounds/record, while often distorting that of their political opponents. With Sunak the fact that his wife's family, and he himself, are v. wealthy couldn't be hidden, but his background in banking/the city (not the most popular of professions) tends to get glossed over.
He was only elected as an MP in '15, and rose to prominence due to the chaos in the conservative party and Brexit. Post '15, effective government ceased, their really is no record of delivery on anything, apart from a highly damaging Brexit deal and an incompetent, financially costly response to Covid. Sunak's alleged competence was clearly the creation of Tory sympathisers and propogandists.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 22, 2024 11:27:36 GMT
Hi neilj , that shows that across all demographics (including Tory voters) the electorate isn't sold on the small state, neo-liberal economic model. I also assume that support for gvt spending/role is stronger currently due to the overall economic situation and increased demand for services provided by the state. Not convinced... I doubt its increased demand which is the trigger, rather its the policy of shrinking available resources, which is a central con policy and has now been in effect for 13 years, causing obvious shortfall of resources compared to demand. A platform of cutting government spending is superficially attractive, until it becomes clear this has to mean worse services and those services become obviously failing to voters.
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Post by robbiealive on Jan 22, 2024 11:30:20 GMT
robbiealive While the whole process seems unnecessary and over the top, the police officers concerned were incredibly respectful and professional and describing it as "an invasion at dawn" seems a bit bizarre. The primary reason why searches often occur early morning is because you want the people to be there to let you in and answer questions. It was one of the politest detentions and house searches I've ever seen. The officers were only there because someone presumably The Tory mp or their office made an allegation of criminal damage. Devon and Cornwall police clearly have too much time on their hands they could have just asked the woman to pop into the station and make the allegation there, didn't look like she was a flight risk! The lady concerned was dearrested at 8.55 am. Hope the nonsense of the charge is abandoned before it's laughed out at court. Dear Steve, I know why they raid at dawn. I've seen enough crime movies. "Dawn invasion" added a bit of colour. Besides that's how she may have perceived it. I've never had plod tramping around my house at dawn. Who knows. The search conducted was ludicrous. The criminal damage was 4 lor 5 holes made by drawing pins in a door. At my age I wouldn't be able to see the damage. Yes they were polite. It wasn't an allegation: she was charged & arrested. But there is a wider context: the nation-wide clamp down on protest. The police are being used to intimidate people. You can smash a 1,000 ULEZ cameras & not a single conviction I can see. Stick a drawing pin in the door & it's criminal damage. This is what they should have done, at the most. One or two police officers, including a female, should have visited her at a reasonable hour. They explain that due to the death of Jo Cox etc the security of MPs is paramount. They explain who has made the allegation & that minute holes are criminal damage. She should refrain from future pastings on constituency doors (unless she used bluetack.)
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 22, 2024 12:08:51 GMT
Those interested in how party support and tactical voting are likely to affect the number of seats that parties win at the next General Election, which must be a few on this board to judge by the number of footie-related and covid posts on here, may like to read Ben Ansell's latest missive on Substack: How Bad Can It Get for the Conservatives?I see he points to Downing street covid parties, or their revelation retrospectively, as the turning point in Johnson's decline. I'm not sure I subscribe to that, I feel its more general deterioration, dissatisfaction, and then one event crystalises the disaffection which has been building up. According to plan we should now be in the glory days of resurgent british pre-eminence following Brexit....but its the reverse. He analyses seats by social factors and concludes that to win a constituency con NEED... at least 15% pensioners. 55% or more white british (not counting white something else) 30% home owners fewer than 20% renters When I say NEED, the plots show con simply do not win seats unless those conditions are satisfied, forget it. whereas looking at the plotted labour constituencies, they seem to have a spread of wins which does cluster the opposite sense to con, but still covers a full spread, these conditions do not utterly prevent a labour win. This all rather suggests con are being boxed into a demographic corner.
So whereas lab logically has potential to win anywhere and so must still think of policies which could help old white british as well as young black, con are really looking at not offending the old rich (native) white men.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 22, 2024 12:12:04 GMT
Very disappointing from the Labour party who are doubling down on the make Brexit work bollocks. This is inconsistent with their electorate who overwhelmingly want closer links and to rejoin. Just so Labour doesn't upset the Labour supporters who voted to leave the EU because they were charmed by Johnson and scared by Farage. I Perhaps during the next few years, the landscape will evolve to the point where a political party can get away with telling the truth. youtu.be/QmfqwCzJM6M?si=DnAkV_00Zk8rNL69
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 22, 2024 12:14:40 GMT
Delta Poll
Labour lead widens to seventeen points in the latest results from Deltapoll. Con 28% (-) Lab 45% (+1) Lib Dem 9% (-1) Other 17% (-1) Fieldwork: 19th - 22nd January 2024 Sample: 2,176 GB adults (Changes from 12th-15th January 2024)
Approval ratings The gap in net approval between the two leaders widens to twenty-nine points.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 22, 2024 12:19:35 GMT
Delta Poll Labour lead widens to seventeen points in the latest results from Deltapoll. Con 28% (-) Lab 45% (+1) Lib Dem 9% (-1) Other 17% (-1) Fieldwork: 19th - 22nd January 2024 Sample: 2,176 GB adults (Changes from 12th-15th January 2024) Approval ratings The gap in net approval between the two leaders widens to twenty-nine points. at least these polls all moving in concert suggests there is some genuine validity in the numbers they are recording (unless the fix is in and all the companies are colluding to move numbers together (which I dont believe, but mention for completeness))
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neilj
Member
Posts: 6,068
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Post by neilj on Jan 22, 2024 12:30:58 GMT
Latest Labour leads by pollster
27 YouGov 25 WeThink 22 PeoplePolling 19 Redfield & Wilton 18 Techne 17 Savanta 17 Deltapoll 14 Opinium 15 More In Common
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steve
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Posts: 12,320
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Post by steve on Jan 22, 2024 12:31:11 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2024 12:35:14 GMT
robbiealive “ Dear Steve, I know why they raid at dawn. I've seen enough crime movies. Have you seen “The Drawing Pin” trilogy? A genuinely riveting mystery drama.
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