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Post by mark61 on Jan 22, 2024 17:03:43 GMT
Yes Crossbat, quite right not to rise to the bait! We would be back and forth for days boring everybody rigid. Must say I have warmed to that cheeky Brummie Scamp Jacky Grealish, but never could stand Gabby probably because he always seemed to score against us.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 22, 2024 17:18:16 GMT
Yes Crossbat, quite right not to rise to the bait! We would be back and forth for days boring everybody rigid. Must say I have warmed to that cheeky Brummie Scamp Jacky Grealish, but never could stand Gabby probably because he always seemed to score against us. I think it's quite possible we could bore each other rigid too, Mark!! During my many years working in Brummie car plants, I think that's what we all did in the end!!
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,417
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 22, 2024 17:21:20 GMT
Redfield Wilton Labour leads by 23%. Lowest Conservative % since Rishi Sunak became PM. Westminster Voting Intention (21 Jan) Labour 45% (+1) Conservative 22% (-3) Reform UK 12% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 2% (-1) Other 2% (–) Changes +/- 14 Jan' Relaunch number eight going well then.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,417
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 22, 2024 17:25:13 GMT
I think this is stretching the definition of 'Popular' I wasn't previously aware that Liz Truss was an expert on "popular". She was after all the PM who said she was prepared to be unpopular and fully delivered on that pledge.
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Post by isa on Jan 22, 2024 17:26:50 GMT
Redfield Wilton Labour leads by 23%. Lowest Conservative % since Rishi Sunak became PM. Westminster Voting Intention (21 Jan) Labour 45% (+1) Conservative 22% (-3) Reform UK 12% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 2% (-1) Other 2% (–) Changes +/- 14 Jan' Yet another poll with LAB holding fairly steady and CON possibly weakening a tad further. Down to just 22% in this example. I wonder if we might see a poll with CON VI dropping below 20%. I think there have been a couple showing bang on 20%, but a 19% might really concentrate some Tory minds.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,417
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 22, 2024 17:35:02 GMT
Redfield Wilton Labour leads by 23%. Lowest Conservative % since Rishi Sunak became PM. Westminster Voting Intention (21 Jan) Labour 45% (+1) Conservative 22% (-3) Reform UK 12% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 2% (-1) Other 2% (–) Changes +/- 14 Jan' Yet another poll with LAB holding fairly steady and CON possibly weakening a tad further. Down to just 22% in this example. I wonder if we might see a poll with CON VI dropping below 20%. I think there have been a couple showing bang on 20%, but a 19% might really concentrate some Tory minds. Per Electoral Calculus - on that poll 72 Conservatives, 41 Lib Dems, 487 Labour. Labour overall majority of 324. They have plenty to be sleepless about already.
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Post by guymonde on Jan 22, 2024 18:04:34 GMT
Redfield Wilton Labour leads by 23%. Lowest Conservative % since Rishi Sunak became PM. Westminster Voting Intention (21 Jan) Labour 45% (+1) Conservative 22% (-3) Reform UK 12% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 2% (-1) Other 2% (–) Changes +/- 14 Jan' Yet another poll with LAB holding fairly steady and CON possibly weakening a tad further. Down to just 22% in this example. I wonder if we might see a poll with CON VI dropping below 20%. I think there have been a couple showing bang on 20%, but a 19% might really concentrate some Tory minds. "19% might really concentrate some Tory minds." I doubt it. They have much more important things to keep them busy such as whether to get rid of the latest leader and whether to replace him with Mark Francois or Michael Fabricant - after all, he has the hair and the talent.
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Post by EmCat on Jan 22, 2024 18:08:56 GMT
Redfield Wilton Labour leads by 23%. Lowest Conservative % since Rishi Sunak became PM. Westminster Voting Intention (21 Jan) Labour 45% (+1) Conservative 22% (-3) Reform UK 12% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 2% (-1) Other 2% (–) Changes +/- 14 Jan' Yet another poll with LAB holding fairly steady and CON possibly weakening a tad further. Down to just 22% in this example. I wonder if we might see a poll with CON VI dropping below 20%. I think there have been a couple showing bang on 20%, but a 19% might really concentrate some Tory minds. Given the way their strategists' minds don't seem to have been concentrated so far, it would almost be less far-fetched if they are waiting for a couple more points to slip away, and a couple more to add to Reform, and then administer the coup de grace: A few well-known MPs then announce they are jumping ship to Reform (hoping to trigger an avalanche. Or something)
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 22, 2024 18:11:10 GMT
Yet another poll with LAB holding fairly steady and CON possibly weakening a tad further. Down to just 22% in this example. I wonder if we might see a poll with CON VI dropping below 20%. I think there have been a couple showing bang on 20%, but a 19% might really concentrate some Tory minds. "19% might really concentrate some Tory minds." I doubt it. They have much more important things to keep them busy such as whether to get rid of the latest leader and whether to replace him with Mark Francois or Michael Fabricant - after all, he has the hair and the talent. Micky Fabricant. The Hair Apparent.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,417
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 22, 2024 18:49:44 GMT
Labour MP in 'chicken run'?
Alistair Strathern, newly elected MP for Mid Beds, has decided to stand in Hitchin instead at the GE. His officially stated reason is that boundary changes mean his home is outside Mid Beds and inside Hitchin, but you can't help feeling the latter is a better bet for re-election.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,417
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 22, 2024 18:55:09 GMT
Yet another poll with LAB holding fairly steady and CON possibly weakening a tad further. Down to just 22% in this example. I wonder if we might see a poll with CON VI dropping below 20%. I think there have been a couple showing bang on 20%, but a 19% might really concentrate some Tory minds. "19% might really concentrate some Tory minds." I doubt it. They have much more important things to keep them busy such as whether to get rid of the latest leader and whether to replace him with Mark Francois or Michael Fabricant - after all, he has the hair and the talent. You can get 750-1 on Fabricant as next Tory leader and 1000-1 on Francois. Remarkably those are longer odds than Peter Bone (500-1) or Andrew Bridgen (200-1) who have been kicked out of the party. David Cameron (20-1) is fifth favorite! www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-conservative-leader-after-rishi-sunak
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jan 22, 2024 19:10:50 GMT
Given the way their strategists' minds don't seem to have been concentrated so far, it would almost be less far-fetched if they are waiting for a couple more points to slip away, and a couple more to add to Reform, and then administer the coup de grace: A few well-known MPs then announce they are jumping ship to Reform (hoping to trigger an avalanche. Or something) Hi EmCat, tbh nothing would surprise me with this lot now.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jan 22, 2024 19:18:02 GMT
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 22, 2024 20:02:30 GMT
"19% might really concentrate some Tory minds." I doubt it. They have much more important things to keep them busy such as whether to get rid of the latest leader and whether to replace him with Mark Francois or Michael Fabricant - after all, he has the hair and the talent. Cameron was a well respected and indeed undefeated leader who as member of the lords could immediately become leader and PM. I mean, any better suggestions? Thatcher's dead.
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Post by jib on Jan 22, 2024 20:04:15 GMT
Judging by the notional result, a candidate that can take the fight to the Tories and Lib Dems should do well.
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Post by James E on Jan 22, 2024 20:15:38 GMT
Delta and R&W's polls complete a sequence of 5 with fieldwork in the last week, of which 4 have shown their largest Labour leads for some time; the odd one out is Techne, whose 18% was their equal-lowest for 14 polls. Delta (22 Jan) 17 % Lab lead, their largest since early Nov 2023 (8 polls) R&W (21 Jan) 23% Lab lead, their largest since March 2023 We Think (19 Jan) 25% Lab lead, their largest since July 2023 Techne (18 Jan) 18% Lab lead, their lowest since Sept 2023 YouGov (17 Jan) 27% Lab lead, their largest since Oct 2022 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#
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Post by davem on Jan 22, 2024 20:28:02 GMT
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,417
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 22, 2024 20:29:08 GMT
Electoral calculus given Labour a 65% chance of winning the new Hitchin on current polling but only a 45% chance of winning Mid Beds.
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Post by graham on Jan 22, 2024 20:33:19 GMT
On the new boundaries Labour would likely have performed better in 1997 than in the existing Hitchin & Harpenden seat.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 22, 2024 20:48:42 GMT
Lords voted by a majority of 43 – 214 votes to 171 – for a motion to delay ratification of the government's Rwanda treaty until safeguards have been implemented.
It won't stop the Bill on it's own, but it's a signal that it is likely to be delayed with further votes against the Government likely
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jan 22, 2024 21:02:46 GMT
Judging by the notional result, a candidate that can take the fight to the Tories and Lib Dems should do well. It reminds me a bit of those tales of Japanese soldiers roaming the jungles of Borneo years after the end of the war. I'll tell you gently.. The coalition ended almost a decade ago..
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,417
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 22, 2024 21:30:20 GMT
Lords voted by a majority of 43 – 214 votes to 171 – for a motion to delay ratification of the government's Rwanda treaty until safeguards have been implemented. It won't stop the Bill on it's own, but it's a signal that it is likely to be delayed with further votes against the Government likely "Downing Street ... had warned peers prior to the vote that a failure to pass the legislation would be an attack on the “will of the people”." (Guardian) I wonder if Sunak is aware of the grim history of regimes who have claimed to be implementing "the will of the people".
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Post by isa on Jan 22, 2024 22:11:18 GMT
"19% might really concentrate some Tory minds." I doubt it. They have much more important things to keep them busy such as whether to get rid of the latest leader and whether to replace him with Mark Francois or Michael Fabricant - after all, he has the hair and the talent. Micky Fabricant. The Hair Apparent. Or possibly the 'Pretender'?
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Post by alec on Jan 22, 2024 22:18:46 GMT
Worth reading this thread in full to get a grasp of how defective some parts of the NHS/care system really are -
It's genuinely difficult to comprehend how we could have constructed such a system with so many structural flaws and bureaucratic barriers to the most simple needs of patient care.
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Post by jib on Jan 22, 2024 22:20:58 GMT
I'll tell you gently.. The coalition ended almost a decade ago.. No need to be gentle. Shout it loudly and proudly. Remember, remember!
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,320
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Post by steve on Jan 22, 2024 22:52:07 GMT
Just a reminder that the period since 2010 didn't end in 2015.
Meanwhile back to reality.
The lords defeated the government on a delaying bill on their unworkable Rwanda gimmick. Sunakered assisted by his client media will attempt to try to portray this as an assault o on the “will of the people” – despite Rwanda offshoring not being included in the 2019 Conservative manifesto and there's ample evidence that the majority of " the people " don't think it will work anyway.
The reality is The Lords are performing their constitutional role in sinking an unlawful policy.
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Dave
Member
... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
Posts: 818
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Post by Dave on Jan 22, 2024 22:53:44 GMT
Latest Labour leads by pollster 27 YouGov 25 WeThink 22 PeoplePolling 19 Redfield & Wilton 18 Techne 17 Savanta 17 Deltapoll 14 Opinium 15 More In Common Quick mental arithmetic shows average of 19.33333 (etc). Did it quickly so might be out. Probably not as I got 100% in my 11 plus. I'm pretty sure I got 106% in my maths exam.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 22, 2024 22:58:20 GMT
This is Hiroo Onoda He was an intelligence officer in the Imperial Japanese army. In a somewhat bizarre lack of intelligence he didn't realise the war had ended until 1974. Jibs got a way to go yet!
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Dave
Member
... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
Posts: 818
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Post by Dave on Jan 22, 2024 23:07:57 GMT
Redfield Wilton Labour leads by 23%. Lowest Conservative % since Rishi Sunak became PM. Westminster Voting Intention (21 Jan) Labour 45% (+1) Conservative 22% (-3) Reform UK 12% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 2% (-1) Other 2% (–) Changes +/- 14 Jan' Yet another poll with LAB holding fairly steady and CON possibly weakening a tad further. Down to just 22% in this example. I wonder if we might see a poll with CON VI dropping below 20%. I think there have been a couple showing bang on 20%, but a 19% might really concentrate some Tory minds. Iirc, I think there has been one pollster who put the Tories in a better (it's all relative) place than previously with the the other pollsters showing the gap widening. I wonder if the time of year is a factor and that people came back after Christmas, doubling down on their determination to get rid of this lot. Maybe something like our nations' collective New Year's resolution? I know it's mine. Edit: Regarding my first line - I see the magnificent James beat me to it with actual facts and figures rather than my typically vague "iirc".
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Dave
Member
... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
Posts: 818
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Post by Dave on Jan 22, 2024 23:12:01 GMT
Labour MP in 'chicken run'? Alistair Strathern, newly elected MP for Mid Beds, has decided to stand in Hitchin instead at the GE. His officially stated reason is that boundary changes mean his home is outside Mid Beds and inside Hitchin, but you can't help feeling the latter is a better bet for re-election. I'm not happy about that (that looks pompous as I read it back - it's not meant that way - how I feel about this matters not one jot ). But I hope that the Labour hierarchy tell him to do one and it's Mid Beds or nowhere. He stood in Mid Beds, telling its constituents that he cared about them and the area and now? If he does stand in Hitchin that may well be the only seat where I wouldn't care if Labour lost.
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