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Post by robbiealive on Jan 18, 2024 0:13:04 GMT
mercian There's no evidence for that. According to research, children who learn two languages simultaneously go through the same processes and progress at the same rate as children who learn only one language. They have no issues with speaking one or the other language it's not a jumbled mix of both. For adults like me who didn't learn Spanish until my twenties there is a tendency to shift from Spanish to English when you don't know or can't remember the correct expression. This is known in Spain as "spanglish". Ok. It was just an idle musing out of consideration of your situation. Thank you for the polite reply which is a pleasant contrast to domjg 's usual vituperation. Ever thought about the experiential method of testing ideas? Try observing orthodox Jewiah kids speaking Hebrew, or Welsh youth speaking Welsh, or kids from a Pakistani background speaking Urdu. Note the effortless way they switch to and from those languages and English & the way in which they incorporate English words into their non-English speaking. They are bilingual with all the advantages that brings. Applaud & envy their liguistic dexterity & recognise we are monoglot plodders.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 18, 2024 0:14:10 GMT
Just to add to the fun (reality check - that won't be the GE result) I did Electoral Calculus on that poll as well and got 41 Conservatives, but then had a look who they were. Amusingly (for me) Patel, Cleverly, Badenoch, Braverman and Sunak are all gone, so heaven knows who the next leader would be.
Among the seats the Tories manage to hold are Chesham and Amersham, Shropshire North and Honiton and Sidmouth - where they have lost by-elections this parliament! So 41 might be a bit generous.
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Post by mercian on Jan 18, 2024 0:17:39 GMT
Ok. It was just an idle musing out of consideration of your situation. Thank you for the polite reply which is a pleasant contrast to domjg 's usual vituperation. I apologise for the intemperateness if that's a word, sometimes I do see this place too much through the prism of conflict, I'll admit that. In this particular case it's perhaps because I'm passionate about and am to an extent involved in encouraging multilingualism, especially from a young age, know a bit about this stuff and it's disheartening to see old and discredited ideas from decades ago, especially because when these ideas were commonplace they led parents to mistakenly believe they should only speak English (or whatever dominant language of a given country) to their children so as not to 'disadvantage' them when in reality they were doing precisely the opposite. Thanks for the apology. I wasn't even aware that my thought was an old idea. It just occurred to me because I was pondering on steve's question. Anyway, I think this place is at it's best when there are constructive discussions and even modifications of stances through debate. There are many fora where vituperative conflict is the norm, and I enjoy the fact that this forum isn't always like that. (apart from me v crossbat11 of course)
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Post by EmCat on Jan 18, 2024 0:17:46 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 47% (+2) CON: 20% (-2) RFM: 12% (+4) LDM: 8% (+1) GRN: 7% (-1) Via @yougov, tbc. Changes w/ 10-11 Jan. 10:44 PM · Jan 17, 2024 · 26.8K Views (from Election maps) Changes from 10-11 Jan should be RFM +2, LDM -1. Highest Lab lead with YouGov since a 28 in late October 2022 - 2 days after Sunak took over from Truss. Sunak needs to call an election sharpish while they still have a chance of an MP left to be be leader. Back in the late 1980s, there were many computer manufacturers vying to become significant. Typically, when asked "who will still be around in 5 years?", the answer could be summed up as "IBM, Microsoft, Apple... and us!" I think that the Tory MPs have convinced themselves that they will be part of the "and us" cohort, so no need to rush into calling the election.(or at least, that's how they seem to be acting) A sizeable chunk of those who have already said they won't be standing for re-election have probably worked out that they are on a hiding to nothing. That leaves the "our faction will be fine" group, even though that is manifestly not so, given how small some of their majorities are. But that polling recovery will happen any day now. Maybe. Possibly. Just need to ... (think up another cunning plan that even Baldrick wouldn't think was remotely cunning)
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Post by expatr on Jan 18, 2024 0:23:15 GMT
James E As the fight between the 'big two' seems to be over, my interest is now on the next bunch. SNP will obviously have decent representation even if they lose some. Of the next 3 (LDM, RFM and GRN) only LibDem are likely to get more than one seat even if the percentages stay as in this poll (because of their strength in certain areas). I will be very interested to see how the percentages of those parties change over the next few polls because even if they don't get many seats they could well affect results in a good number. To me, it's very hard to call 3rd place in seats at the moment between SNP and LDs. I still expect the SNP to win more than half of seats in Scotland on a smallish lead in overall votes. But the LDs will gain in seats regardless of a 8-14% poll rating, provided that the Tories are below 30%. I've run that YG poll through Electoral Calculus, but with my usual allowance for Lab/LD/Green tactical voting, and the seat figures come out as: Lab 557 LDM 35 SNP 23 Con 15 (5 of these in Scotland) Grn 1 PC 1 So Ed Davey as Opposition Leader despite the 8% vote share and 4th place in the overall vote. Interesting - tactical fractions do you use?
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Post by isa on Jan 18, 2024 0:23:32 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 47% (+2) CON: 20% (-2) RFM: 12% (+4) LDM: 8% (+1) GRN: 7% (-1) Via @yougov, tbc. Changes w/ 10-11 Jan. 10:44 PM · Jan 17, 2024 · 26.8K Views (from Election maps) Changes from 10-11 Jan should be RFM +2, LDM -1. Highest Lab lead with YouGov since a 28 in late October 2022 - 2 days after Sunak took over from Truss. Sunak needs to call an election sharpish while they still have a chance of an MP left to be be leader. Well it won't be him. He loses Richmond and Northallerton to LAB on those figures.
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Post by davem on Jan 18, 2024 0:37:35 GMT
Just to add to the fun (reality check - that won't be the GE result) I did Electoral Calculus on that poll as well and got 41 Conservatives, but then had a look who they were. Amusingly (for me) Patel, Cleverly, Badenoch, Braverman and Sunak are all gone, so heaven knows who the next leader would be. Among the seats the Tories manage to hold are Chasham and Amersham, Shropshire North and Honiton and Sidmouth - where they have lost by-elections this parliament! So 41 might be a bit generous. This is why the possibility of another leadership election in the Tory party is not impossible. If the right wing think their main candidates will lose their seats there is nothing to lose by having a vote of no confidence.
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Post by mercian on Jan 18, 2024 0:37:54 GMT
... "The collapse of our universities is the best thing that could happen to Britain We need to rethink the purpose of higher education. Sadly, we aren't going to do that until the current system falls apart."
You set up a business model in which Uni finances are dependent on foreign students & then do everything to alienate them. Better to bankrupt Brit Unis than admit foreign students. These people are nuts, they really are. " There are too many universities. Degrees aren't necessary for most jobs. They might technically be a requirement but that's only because there are so many graduates. Even I as a non-graduate manager 40 years ago used to bin unsolicited applications that weren't from graduates or that contained spelling mistakes simply because we had so many and I had to whittle them down somehow. The solution in my opinion would be to allow universities to charge whatever they want. This would lead to survival of the fittest. Presumably Oxford and Cambridge would charge the most and so on downwards. Unis could charge more for courses where they had a particularly good reputation. This could go hand in hand with a campaign to persuade wealthy people to endow scholarships for poorer students. There's the old joke: "What do you say to an arts graduate?" "Burger and fries please"
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Post by mercian on Jan 18, 2024 0:48:17 GMT
Ok. It was just an idle musing out of consideration of your situation. Thank you for the polite reply which is a pleasant contrast to domjg 's usual vituperation. Ever thought about the experiential method of testing ideas? Try observing orthodox Jewiah kids speaking Hebrew, or Welsh youth speaking Welsh, or kids from a Pakistani background speaking Urdu. Note the effortless way they switch to and from those languages and English & the way in which they incorporate English words into their non-English speaking. They are bilingual with all the advantages that brings. Applaud & envy their liguistic dexterity & recognise we are monoglot plodders. It was just an idea that I hoped might help steve. So in your examples I'd have to go to a synagogue somewhere (London?), Wales and a rather dangerous area of Birmingham before I can post a one-line idea that I hoped might be helpful? Get real. I didn't say being bilingual is bad, simply trying to put myself in the position of the small child who might get upset if people outside it's immediate family couldn't understand what it was saying. Some of you people are so antagonistic over perfectly innocent posts it's unbelievable.
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Post by eor on Jan 18, 2024 0:57:57 GMT
As the infant language discussion flared up again - ours went to baby signing classes and I'd recommend that to any new parents, or indeed grandparents looking to sneak a bit of diversity past a somewhat feckless dad steve She picked up a whole bunch of signs long before her speech developed, which meant being able to communicate her basic needs to us without the frustration of waiting for us to guess that right now she was grumpy cos she wanted a drink, some food, her nappy changed etc, and because the signs included animals, and particularly colours she could quickly ask for specific toys or even certain foods. And then as her speech has started to really develop, she uses the two in tandem, but clearly switching between them rather than blending them together. Just as children we know whose parents speak English and eg Welsh/Polish/Hindi at home seem to switch between their two languages based on context. But the difference here being they can use the signs as soon as their brain has developed enough to want to communicate, rather than needing to wait for those pesky vocal chords to get their act together
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Post by eor on Jan 18, 2024 1:07:40 GMT
James E As the fight between the 'big two' seems to be over, my interest is now on the next bunch. SNP will obviously have decent representation even if they lose some. Of the next 3 (LDM, RFM and GRN) only LibDem are likely to get more than one seat even if the percentages stay as in this poll (because of their strength in certain areas). I will be very interested to see how the percentages of those parties change over the next few polls because even if they don't get many seats they could well affect results in a good number. To me, it's very hard to call 3rd place in seats at the moment between SNP and LDs. I still expect the SNP to win more than half of seats in Scotland on a smallish lead in overall votes. But the LDs will gain in seats regardless of a 8-14% poll rating, provided that the Tories are below 30%. I've run that YG poll through Electoral Calculus, but with my usual allowance for Lab/LD/Green tactical voting, and the seat figures come out as: Lab 557 LDM 35 SNP 23 Con 15 (5 of these in Scotland) Grn 1 PC 1 So Ed Davey as Opposition Leader despite the 8% vote share and 4th place in the overall vote. I've been wondering about tactical voting adjustments for a while - do you think after a while they start to get baked into the VI itself? Thinking because the boundaries haven't really changed in a long time now, maybe people to get used to the realities of voting where they live and a non-trivial chunk of people answering polling VI are literally telling us what they would do if voting in a GE tomorrow, and already giving us the tactical answer rather than necessarily always stating the party they'd most like to form the government?
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Post by eor on Jan 18, 2024 1:53:06 GMT
I know we tend to look at different aggregators steve but my reaction to the results was that it was a massive win for the pollsters, practically French levels of accuracy. 538 and RCP had Trump on 52.5% and 52.7% and he got 51%. Likewise they had Haley bang on and Ramaswamay within a percent or so as well. They only missed on DeSantis who was predicted 15-16% and got a shade over 21%. For a contest as odd as Iowa and with no prior results to calibrate polls against that's an outstanding polling performace! Thanks for that, the other notable thing was the very low turn out due to weather. Not sure if this helped Trump or not as many of his supporters are evangelistic in their support and so more likely to brave the elements? Yeah it's likely to have been a factor, despite Trump with characteristic care and modesty telling people that if they voted for him and then passed away from the cold it would still have been worth it. No idea which way it skews overall tho - as you say, he'd be expected to have more Believers, especially when DeSantis and Haley are so very far from home. At the same time, Trump was always expected to win big there, so it'd be rather easier for supporters of his to let others go out and do the voting in that vicious cold, whereas Haley and DeSantis were in a real battle for second and the potential for DeSantis being knocked out of the race if Haley had opened a decent margin, so maybe also incentive for some of their supporters to brave it? Who knows.
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Post by guymonde on Jan 18, 2024 2:00:27 GMT
Just to add to the fun (reality check - that won't be the GE result) I did Electoral Calculus on that poll as well and got 41 Conservatives, but then had a look who they were. Amusingly (for me) Patel, Cleverly, Badenoch, Braverman and Sunak are all gone, so heaven knows who the next leader would be. Among the seats the Tories manage to hold are Chasham and Amersham, Shropshire North and Honiton and Sidmouth - where they have lost by-elections this parliament! So 41 might be a bit generous. Does Michael Fabricant survive? He against H'Angus the Monkey would be closely fought I would think.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 18, 2024 5:17:51 GMT
This is very good from Jess Phillips What is? It's blank for me after the first line. This often happens with your messages. It was a twitter link, video here youtu.be/TYHjTTbVyqw?feature=shared
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 18, 2024 5:26:53 GMT
Theresa Coffey showing a level of ignorance only Lee Anderson could surpass. Love the little smirk by Cooper at the end
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 18, 2024 5:47:14 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 47% (+2) CON: 20% (-2) RFM: 12% (+4) LDM: 8% (+1) GRN: 7% (-1) Via @yougov, tbc. Changes w/ 10-11 Jan. 10:44 PM · Jan 17, 2024 · 26.8K Views (from Election maps) Changes from 10-11 Jan should be RFM +2, LDM -1. Highest Lab lead with YouGov since a 28 in late October 2022 - 2 days after Sunak took over from Truss. Thanks for posting Interesting that right wing parties are only getting a total of 32% and we know from polling even if Reform didn't stand at all the tories are only likely to pick up between a quarter and a third of their vote. So if no Reform the tory vote would still be only around 23% - 24% Chasing the Reform vote at the expense of the centre ground is a strategy certain to fail
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 18, 2024 6:12:18 GMT
Not that novel, I have been canvassing for Labour for 50 years and I have always started with, “are there any local issues you would like to raise with me while I am here” Such as inadequate central government funding for schools, inadequate central government funding for care, inadequate central funding for roads, inadequate central funding for local housing, inadequate central government funding for libraries, inadequate central government funding to actually run local government?
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Post by moby on Jan 18, 2024 6:51:41 GMT
Oh dear....
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 18, 2024 7:00:15 GMT
Rumours that latest You Gov poll puts Labour 27% ahead. EDIT: Mentioned on tonight's Preston programme. Can't find details though. There are currently three big injustice scandals in the media. The 700 postmasters convicted of crimes they didnt commit by the governmnent and thousands more who had money stolen from them. The thousands of 'Windrush' pensioners who were stripped of their citizenship, many stripped of pensions and benefits and deported, because the government had thrown away the paperwork proving their rights to be in the Uk. The 4,600 haemophiliacs who were given drugs known to be contaminated with HIV. Two of these dating back decades and all of them seemingly hoping the people concerned will just die so the problem disappears. And then theres the Rwanda bill, as the news said the government's third attempt at a bill to deport legitimate refugees arriving in the Uk by boat. Right there, if you believe its a good idea then the government is incompetent at implementing it and if you think it a bad idea its constant grumbling toothache. Are there rebel MPs pushing for a tougher bill, or are they just showing their uselessness because they made a fuss and then voted with the government? Is their rebellion turning from being support of a cause to demonstrable worthlessness?
If the rwanda bill succeeds and all arrivals in the Uk by boat cease, it will make a negligible difference to immigration to the UK, where we recently noted the number of immigrants exceeds the number of local births, so the Uk is anyway on track to become majority immigrant, which would seem to be what the government was trying to prevent, or at least many of its voters trying to prevent. It was one of the headline motivations for brexit, which has completely failed.
Some government service is constantly on strike for low pay, millions of people must be affected by that directly but what do the rest think, once again whichever side they are on that the matter is unresolved.
The navy is scrapping ships because it cannot pay sailors enough to man them. Thats a conservative government allowing the armed forces to fall apart, supposedly a classic con strong area. We already saw how the UK has utterly inadequate supplies of ammunition for a war of any duration, and so has been unable to supply same to our notional ally Ukraine.
Uptick in inflation when a downtick was promised. This was blamed upon rises in alcohol and tobaccon prices, but I cant help thinking those were predictable whereas what really happened was that anticipated falls in various categories simply didnt happen. While the problems in the gulf keep expanding not shrinking and extended warfare in that area guarantees world shipping will be disrupted again and prices for goods must rise, because we import so much stuff from the opposite side of the world predicated upon cheap transport and massive co2 pollution in the process.
Failed policy on decarbonisation and the start of talk about what towns and cities we will allow to flood as sea level inexorably rises . The last 15 years was key to achieve Uk and world targets to cease using fossil fuels, and the con government abjectly failed. Comment from Scottish power recently that while they have been very busy installing wind turbines in Scotland, it is essentially impossible to do this in England because of the legal framework. Instead con have belatedly promised to build more nuclear plants, which guarantee expensive elctricity for 50 years to come, cannot be ready for 10-20 years and are a massive military vulnerability for the UK should any serious shooting war break out here, for example with Russia.
Housing....aside from the market being frozen at the moment because of surging interest rates, in general property is so expensive as to be unaffordable by a growing numbert of people, which is incidentally leading to local councils going bankrupt. The policy of giving away council houses which bought votes for Thatcher is now losing votes for her successors because of the shortage she created by banning new building. Similar to the problem with wind turbines. And indeed out inability to build a new railway because the cost of placing it underground was so horrendous, which again was all about prioritising the view out of voters window rather than essential national infrastructure.
Oh, and the growing inability to get medical treatment if you are sick, mostly affecting pensioners, who are mostly conservative voters.
So all in all 14 years of utterly disastrous government, all the effects of which are now apparent. Sure theres quite a few undecided ex con voters who could shift back to con, but equally the scene looks set for them to finally opt to libs, boosting them by tens of seats in an election this year, but faced with this onslaught of failure with something for everyone to get upset about, why would they switch back to con?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 18, 2024 7:04:39 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 47%; CON: 20% RFM: 12% LDM: 8% GRN: 7% Love it. Why? If libs got 8% national vote, concentrated in 8% of seats then they would get a majority of votes in those seats and about 50 MPs. I'd think they would be very pleased. Small numbers like this are bad predictors of outcome because there is not going to be uniform distribution of those votes. Despite those numbers its quite likely lib could get 50, but RFM zero.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 18, 2024 7:06:45 GMT
Starmer seems to have slipped into ridiculing mode too now. Sensing, I think, that the public are laughing at the PM and his government. Seems sunak had his microphone cut off by the speaker for bringing props into the chamber to make a point, and so lost half of the joke he was trying to make about labour. Shades of parliament turning against the PM.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 18, 2024 7:12:18 GMT
White tiger rides pink elephant. Yeah,thats how Trump became president. Because the mainstream parties made themselves so separated from real people. Con are busy doing that here, while lab lost several elections because it failed to justify its pro EU position (ie why membership was good for the UK), and because it has lost contact with its traditional base.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 18, 2024 7:20:25 GMT
Outbreak of measles taking place because the nation has lost faith in vaccines.
Its a classic example that where you mix together the good and the bad and pretend they are all the same, people will lump them all together. We saw how the covid vaccines FAILED to deliver what was promised, which was an end to covid. Unsurprising if people think the same applies to measles, its pointless.
Incidentally, everyone remember how vaccines used to be given by GPs, whereas now its all done by nurses? Despite there being more GPs and more GP appointments and many jobs having been taken away from them, its now far far more difficult to see one? What has to be going wrong is way too many minor illnesses being brought to GPs.
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Post by jimjam on Jan 18, 2024 7:41:52 GMT
Wonder how much of that YG is just moe of a lead around just above 20 on YG?
Right at the edge but 1 in 20 or so will be, IIRC.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 18, 2024 7:49:31 GMT
More than one poll is available
LAB: 44% (-1) CON: 27% (+1) LDEM: 11% (+1) REF: 7% (-1) GRN: 4% (-1)
via @savantauk , 12 - 14 Jan
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 18, 2024 8:37:48 GMT
Polling from New Hampshire The survey from American Research Group Inc., released Tuesday, puts Trump and Haley at 40 percent each among the state’s likely Republican primary voters. Back in December, Trump was at 33 percent, while Haley scored 29 percent. Both candidates had gained support by the start of January, when the poll had Trump at 37 percent and Haley at 33 percent. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who beat out Haley for second place in Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses Monday, garnered just 4 percent support among New Hampshire Republicans in the latest poll. Of course the traitor has immediately lost his shit posting out torrents of lies about his rival including racist birther conspiracy theories. Hayley's parents are Indian born U.S. Citizens, she was born in South Carolina three years after her parent's moved from Canada and more than a decade after they left India. youtu.be/WScCt69292M?si=1zjBgyzlawI4mQfr
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Post by alec on Jan 18, 2024 8:46:33 GMT
Measles: Oddly enough, I agree with Danny, where he says "We saw how the covid vaccines FAILED to deliver what was promised, which was an end to covid. Unsurprising if people think the same applies to measles, its pointless." Without doubt, the hyping of the covid vaccines is part of the problem of reluctance to vaccinate for other diseases, but only part of the problem. As I've said before, we've never before tried to vaccinate our way out of a pandemic, and there are any examples of 'leaky' vaccines, that prevent severe illness but don't stop transmission, being withdrawn because of the dangers of creating immune evasion and ultimately, more severe variants. This is what happened with the initial attempts at HIV vaccines, and it's been observed in several animal disease vaccines. The moment I knew we were heading for big trouble was when I saw the sentiment of people going for their first jabs, and the release of emotion that 'I'm safe' etc. We needed to jab + stop transmission, and we failed in the second part. The other big reason for the reduction in belief in jabs comes down to people like Danny, and the false narratives that the right wingers have created around public health. It's now commonly believed, even, sadly, by many doctors, that the immune system is 'like a muscle' and 'needs regular exercise'. People have bought into the bizarre idea that getting ill with repeat infections makes you healthier. The truth is that the immune system is more like a battery. By around the age of 20, you stop producing the necessary components of the immune system. They are stored in your bone marrow and represent a finite amount. When your adaptive immune system called them into action, they are released and a complex process works out how they are deployed, and then the T cells die, never again to be replaced. Ageing is nothing more than the exhaustion of your immune system, and once you've drained the battery, you'll die. That could be from flu or covid, or it could be cancer, or a heart attack caused by heart inflammatory processes, or a host of other diseases that your immune system can no longer control. But the public now believes that getting ill makes you stronger, and if that's the case, what's the big deal about vaccines? I've been warning for a long time about the undermining of decades of public health messaging, and this is one of the very bad outcomes. We've listened to the far right on covid, and sadly the left has also abandoned 150 years of learning about socialised public health systems, and are also culpable. I expect nothing less from Danny, a complete fool, but that fact that so many other drift along with his kind of nonsense has been pretty heartbreaking for those of us who could see where this was going to end up. Disease is bad. Always. We learned that in Victorian times, and it might take decades to relearn it now, such is the damage.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 18, 2024 8:56:44 GMT
Just to add to the fun (reality check - that won't be the GE result) I did Electoral Calculus on that poll as well and got 41 Conservatives, but then had a look who they were. Amusingly (for me) Patel, Cleverly, Badenoch, Braverman and Sunak are all gone, so heaven knows who the next leader would be. Among the seats the Tories manage to hold are Chasham and Amersham, Shropshire North and Honiton and Sidmouth - where they have lost by-elections this parliament! So 41 might be a bit generous. This is why the possibility of another leadership election in the Tory party is not impossible. If the right wing think their main candidates will lose their seats there is nothing to lose by having a vote of no confidence. The five I named are safe in reality, unless there really is a Canada style complete collapse which is unlikely.
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Post by hireton on Jan 18, 2024 9:10:25 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 18, 2024 9:26:50 GMT
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