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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2024 9:32:27 GMT
Some of you people are so antagonistic over perfectly innocent posts it's unbelievable. You rang a small bell :- " To meet the ideological requirements of Ingsoc (English Socialism) in Oceania, the Party created Newspeak, which is a controlled language of simplified grammar and limited vocabulary designed to limit a person's ability for critical thinking and thus limit the person's ability to articulate abstract concepts, such as personal identity, self-expression, and free will, which are thoughtcrimes, acts of personal independence that contradict the ideological orthodoxy of Ingsoc collectivism." WIKI "Newspeak"
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2024 9:48:42 GMT
"On June 20, 2020, three friends were among those enjoying the early summer evening in Forbury Gardens, Reading. This was the tough first year of lockdown, but with restrictions relaxed friends could gather to socialise in the park. Seemingly out of nowhere, Khairi Saadallah approached wielding a knife. He stabbed six people in less than 30 seconds. James Furlong, 36, Joe Ritchie-Bennett, 39, and David Wails, 49, were killed. This week, the inquest into their deaths opened."
"At taxpayers’ expense, the radicalised Libyan Saadallah is now serving a whole-life tariff for the Reading park murders. Having pleaded guilty in 2021 he was later denied leave to appeal. Following the news from the inquest this week, reading the accounts of what happened that evening, and the desperate attempts to save lives, the question that comes to mind again and again is this: why was he even here?"
"Saadallah was a member of Ansar al-Sharia, the anti-western death cult that attacked American interests in Benghazi in 2012, killing the US ambassador. When he came to Britain in 2013, this was no poor soul fleeing religious persecution in Africa, or an upstanding Hongkonger needing sanctuary, or a brave Afghan interpreter who had worked with British forces. This was a violent jihadist dedicated to inflicting death on westerners. Yet here he was, on that night in Reading, still in Britain having been allowed to stay here for seven years, abusing the nation’s hospitality and waiting for an opportunity to kill. The list of cock-ups and overlooked opportunities is wearily familiar for cases of this type."
"There were years of violent behaviour, drugs and convictions involving assaults on police and emergency workers, knives, drugs, cruelty to animals. During a stay in prison in 2017 he became friends with an Islamist and appears to have become further radicalised. The final failure to deport, shortly before he killed, seems to have rested on the need to keep Saadallah in the country to prosecute him — for the offence of destroying police property after he ate a mattress in a cell. Charges in that case were dropped, but he still stayed on. There also seem to have been Home Office fears that it was too dangerous for him to be sent back to Libya."
"It’s easy but unfair to blame police officers and those working for MI5 who are doing extraordinarily difficult jobs. They are dealing with so many complex cases and working within constraints that would have astonished previous generations. But the web of legal obligations means that at no point was it feasible for someone in authority to say “get him gone”, fast-tracking Saadallah’s deportation and making it his and Libya’s problem, not the problem of people here going about their lives peaceably. "
"What, a reasonable taxpayer is entitled to ask, are we paying for if the state can’t organise the self-defence of our society?"
"If you want to understand what is really driving the populist anger that may yet turn politics upside down, it is cases such as this that help explain public incredulity and fury with the way the system works, or doesn’t."
from "A jihadist’s slaughter of three men highlights the failure of UK border policies while explaining the appeal of populists" Iain Martin Times
I assume Starmer would reject any suggestion that he is a "populist" !-but he is going to be the beneficiary of this anger and frustration all the same.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 18, 2024 9:50:34 GMT
Especially for Mercian, here are this week's crop of local by-elections. Should also please Steve, if not Jib, since I expect 2 Lib Dem gains and 2 holds, compared to 2 Lab holds.
HACKNEY LBC; Cazenove (Lab elected mayor) Candidates: MICNER, Tamara (Green) PASCAL, Laura (Labour) RAVAL, Dave (Liberal Democrat) SHARER, Ian (Conservative)
2022: Lab 1724, 1709, 1582; LD 1471, 1233, 1121; Grn 463, 433, 277; Con 251; TUSC 81
The Lib Dems won this in 2014 and it was reasonably close last time out. Labour have shot themselves in the foot by suspending their candidate and campaign over what some view as anti-trans social media posts (she has TERF style views on sex and gender). In the circumstances it seems reasonable to expect a Lib Dem gain. If Pascal does win it wouldn't technically be a Labour hold until the internal disciplinary process is resolved. Messy.
RICHMOND UPON THAMES LBC; Hampton North (Con died) Candidates: BISHOP, Carey Anne Leuw (Liberal Democrat) COLEMAN, Danielle Anne Cornelia (Green) CULLEN, Sam (Labour) MAJUMDAR, Nupur (Conservative)
2022: LD 1654, 1560 (both elected); Con 1175 (elected), 1117, 983; Grn 1044; Ind 678; Lab 412, 337, 314
The Conservatives only won because the Lib Dems failed to field three candidates. Should be a routine Lib Dem gain.
RICHMOND UPON THAMES LBC; Teddington (Lib Dem died) Candidates: BAKER, Richard Scott (Liberal Democrat) FOSTER, Elizabeth (Conservative) KERR-SHEPPARD, Chantal Lyn (Green) STOCKFORD, Dominic Francis (Independent) THOMSON, James Dylan (Labour)
2022: LD 2592, 2587, 2502; Con 840, 824, 798; Lab 445, 429, 353
Safe Lib Dem. Should be easy hold.
SHEFFIELD MBC; Stannington (Lib Dem died) Candidates: BRAGG, Chris (Green) DAGNALL, Lewis William (Labour) RODGERS, Rod (Liberal) SAPWELL, Will (Liberal Democrat) WOOLLARD, Ben (Conservative)
2023: LD 2783; Lab 1247; Con 706; Grn 498; TUSC 80
Again, safe Lib Dem.
WANDSWORTH LBC; Tooting Broadway (Lab resigned) Candidates: HAREN, Thillainathan (Liberal Democrats) HUMBERSTONE, Nick (Green) JACOBSSON, Otto (Conservative) LAWLESS, Sean (Labour)
2022: Lab 2773, 2762, 2339; Con 849,768, 754; Grn 680; LD 277, 272, 195
Safe Labour.
WARWICK DC; Warwick All Saints & Woodloes (Lab resigned) Candidates: BYRNE, Laurence Michael (Liberal Democrat) TRACEY, Jody (Conservative) WIGHTMAN, Claire Gwendoline (Labour)
2023: Lab 1272, 1234, 1222; Con 989, 979, 977; Grn 369, 349; LD 256, 183
Not so safe Labour; the Conservatives won here in 2019. But in the current political environment Labour should hold it.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2024 10:08:50 GMT
Wonder how much of that YG is just moe of a lead around just above 20 on YG? Right at the edge but 1 in 20 or so will be, IIRC. Dont we have to really wait for the campaign proper jimjam before polling really means anything ? All the media exposure-interviews & debates etc ? Having said that, anecdotally I hear so much despair and anger about "nothing works" and " out of control borders" that I think Sunak will really struggle to find convincing answers. I thought Starmer's attack in HoC yesterday on the "lost" 5k migrants was well timed . He is quite the opportunist -but pushing at an open door !
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 18, 2024 10:15:40 GMT
pjw1961It's difficult to understand what would appeal to an individual who seems to take pleasure to see a far right xenophobic brexitanian fanatic party that wants to cut funding of social services and whose policies are based on lies, more popular than a middle ground social democratic party.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,417
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 18, 2024 10:21:41 GMT
Wonder how much of that YG is just moe of a lead around just above 20 on YG? Right at the edge but 1 in 20 or so will be, IIRC. Dont we have to really wait for the campaign proper jimjam before polling really means anything ?All the media exposure-interviews & debates etc ? Having said that, anecdotally I hear so much despair and anger about "nothing works" and " out of control borders" that I think Sunak will really struggle to find convincing answers. I thought Starmer's attack in HoC yesterday on the "lost" 5k migrants was well timed . He is quite the opportunist -but pushing at an open door ! Not entirely. No one should get excited over individual polls, but the trend over a a long period is a very reliable indicator of the GE outcome. Government leads or small opposition leads (averaging under 7 to 8%) indicate that the government will be re-elected. Consistent large opposition leads (in excess of 8%) indicate a 'change of government' election is coming, although they don't tell you anything about the size of majority. That's what my 'average monthly opposition leads exercise is about. That model predicts the supposedly 'surprise' results in 1970 and 1992 correctly as well as all the more obvious ones. Average Subsequent Lead election 1992-97 25.8 Opposition 2019- 14.8 TBC! 1966-70 12.9 Opposition 1950-51 10.9 Opposition 2005-10 10.0 Opposition 1959-64 9.3 Opposition O74-79 8.9 Opposition 1987-92* 8.8 Govt 1970-F74 7.9 Opposition 2010-15 6.1 Govt 1955-59 6.1 Govt 1979-83 6.0 Govt 1983-87 5.4 Govt F74-O74 5.0 Govt 1997-2001 5.0 Govt 1945-50 4.6 Govt 1951-55 4.4 Govt 1964-66 4.2 Govt 2001-05 2.7 Govt 2017-19 2.4 Govt 2015-17 0.0 Govt *Re 1987-92 - two distinct periods: v Thatcher 10.4 v Major 1.7
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Post by James E on Jan 18, 2024 10:33:32 GMT
Wonder how much of that YG is just moe of a lead around just above 20 on YG? Right at the edge but 1 in 20 or so will be, IIRC. Dont we have to really wait for the campaign proper jimjam before polling really means anything ? All the media exposure-interviews & debates etc ? .... With just a couple of exceptions, the 'campaign proper' rarely produces more than a few points movement in the polls. Other than Labour's surge in 2017, and the Lib/SDP Alliance in 1983, I can't recall any other case of a party gaining a really significant increase in VI. That's comparing the polls at the start with the polls at the end. Polling error, as seen in 1992, 2015, and to a lesser extent 2017, 1997 and 2001, is another matter. And to answer JJ's point: YouGov's recent average has been a 22 lead, so this is 5 points above that. The most striking thing about this latest poll is the Con to Ref movement. As the fieldwork was 16-17 Jan, it is the most recent poll, so the 17 points with with Savanta a few days earlier does help to show it as a likely outlier. And the average Labour lead across all polls is up by around 2 points for the first polls of 2024, so we might have expected a lead of around 24.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 18, 2024 10:44:59 GMT
Peston was interesting last night, not only because the programme broke the news of that astonishing You Gov poll, and also ran the rather revealing interview with a lick-lipping and salivating Farage, but also because of the inclusion of Rebecca Long-Bailey as part of the in-studio panel. Gavin Barwell, very much a member of the fast dwindling sensible and thoughtful Tory faction, was the other.
Peston tried to goad Long-Bailey into some Starmer bashing and displays of residual Corbyn admiration. She declined to indulge in either, giving a rather more nuanced and ambivalent assessment of where the current Labour Party was positioned and the political situation more generally.
A cynic may be tempted to put this down to political positioning and a very understandable desire not to to burn too many boats with the current leadership, especially considering that Starmer is likely to be allocating Ministerial jobs within the next 12 months. Nothing wrong with that; Long-Bailey is an astute politician doing what astute politicians do
But I wonder if something more profound was going on here. A mature recognition that you can't cling on to betrayal narratives too long in the political rough house? Not if you want to get on and change your country for the better, anyway.
I'm up to the 1966 general election, and the Labour landslide, in Nick Thomas-Symonds excellent biography of Wilson. The internal battles and factional warfare was only just to begin in earnest within Labour in many ways, but the story of Wilson's ascent to the top of British politics, from being the youngest ever Cabinet member at 31, in Attlees's Cabinet, and through the Bevanite and Gaitskellite warfare wilderness years of the 1950s, is a story of political intrigue, chicanery and skullduggery. Not for the faint hearted at all and the brutality was practiced on all wings, and in all factions, of the party. But in the end, hatchets were buried and the really big beasts moved on.
But what emerged, eventually, with much blood on the carpet, were the best people getting into position to get Labour into power so that they could do things.
And I think they did some very good things. Fratricide is an inevitable and good thing in politics. It's a sort of law of nature where natural attrition and renewal occurs.
Johnson needed to go, Corbyn too, for the sake of both their parties. Swords were wielded internally and, in the end, clever politicians move on. Martyrs without a real cause don't and are usually heard of no more.
I think we'll hear a lot more of Long-Bailey.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 18, 2024 10:54:06 GMT
Bizarre and delusional press conference by Sunakered. In which he not only claimed everything was going gang busters and his clown show party was united but channelled his inner Spaffer and attempted to undermine the independence of the upper house and the judges.
Sunak talks about the will of the people, the will of the people is for a change of Government.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 18, 2024 10:59:58 GMT
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Post by jimjam on Jan 18, 2024 11:23:21 GMT
CB, I 'reported' a year or more ago that the leadership would like RBL back in the fold.
It may have to wait until after the GE, due to Corbyn-Link optics, but it will happen.
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Post by alec on Jan 18, 2024 11:33:01 GMT
That YG poll is extraordinary, which means in all likelihood it's not accurate, but nonetheless, never say never in polling. Add it to the mix. The picture remains bleak for Conservatives, and I remain feeling the same sense as I did in 1997. Back then, despite four years of poll dominance, there remained a nervousness among Labour supporters, many Conservatives, while clearly on the wrong end of public sentiment, still believed the 'Silent Majority' would at least make the loss palatable, and the media was determined to make the General Election into a contest.
No one really grasped what was about to happen when that exit poll was announced. As the results came through, I recall Anthony King reacting to one particular result by saying this isn't a landslide, it's the equivalent of “an asteroid hitting the planet and destroying practically all life on Earth”. Despite all the preparation the polls gave us, no one quite believed the Conservatives would slump to under 170 seats. The shock on Tory faces that night was palpable. They had expected to lose, but the scale of defeat shattered them.
So yes, this poll is out of line, extraordinary, unbelievable, whatever. But that's what was said routinely of the towering poll leads in 1997. Since the day after the 2019 election I've been of the view that Conservatives are in a precarious position, believing that the false prospectus of Brexit bought them their first substantial majority since 1987, but at a price that they could never afford. Brexit was always going to unravel spectacularly, but without it, the Conservatives were unable to overcome the structural barriers that had prevented them from securing a stable majority for the previous 42 years.
I could well be wrong, but I think the Conservative Party is heading for an almighty calamity, and one from which recovery in any meaningful sense is unlikely. We can all see the rocks through our telescopes, but no one quite believes what lies beneath the waves until we hear the shattering sound of the ship running aground.
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Post by alec on Jan 18, 2024 11:36:00 GMT
Oops. '32 years'.
DoH!
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 18, 2024 11:37:33 GMT
Interesting break down of tory polling in latest yougov Also demonstrates the tory problem, they are losing around the same number of votes to the left as the right. The problem is exasperated for them as losing votes to Labour and the Libdems will be more damaging to them in terms of number of MPs than those going to reform
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Post by robbiealive on Jan 18, 2024 11:39:03 GMT
Ever thought about the experiential method of testing ideas? Try observing orthodox Jewiah kids speaking Hebrew, or Welsh youth speaking Welsh, or kids from a Pakistani background speaking Urdu. Note the effortless way they switch to and from those languages and English & the way in which they incorporate English words into their non-English speaking. They are bilingual with all the advantages that brings. Applaud & envy their liguistic dexterity & recognise we are monoglot plodders. It was just an idea that I hoped might help steve . So in your examples I'd have to go to a synagogue somewhere (London?), Wales and a rather dangerous area of Birmingham before I can post a one-line idea that I hoped might be helpful? Get real. I didn't say being bilingual is bad, simply trying to put myself in the position of the small child who might get upset if people outside it's immediate family couldn't understand what it was saying. Some of you people are so antagonistic over perfectly innocent posts it's unbelievable. I thought my post was civil! If you hv never heard young people switching between languages as if born to it, you must, in this respect at least, lead a v sheltered life. My advice is to get out more. I live in Manchester. There are plenty of districts I don't visit often, as they hold nothing for me, but I can't say there are any dangerous areas. I'm sorry you live in fear & trembling of these supposed no-go areas. I hv friends my age who speak pretty good Polish because that was the language their Polish parents spoke at home in the '50s & later. They dont read or write Polish except in a v rudimentary form. They had no need to. Their kids don't know a word. But then they didn't marry Polish speakers. This suggests that if bilingual people partner with other people who have the same two languages, or only possess the non-English one, then their kids are more likely to be biligual. Kids are amazing at picking things up. My grand-daughter lives in Leeds & speaks with a not-very-pronounced all-purpose northern accent. She attended a nusery. By the time she came home from the first day she was speaking broad Leeds. colin s response to yr cri de coeur is to quote Orwell on Newspeak. I've no idea why & I doubt he has. Newspeak is politician-speak, management-speak, Post-Office-Officials-Defending-Intolerable-Injustice-Speak. The arch-exponent of what Orwell meant is Trump. There are a wide range of benefits of being bilingual or multilingual as either an adult or a child! Here are just a few:Studies have found that children who have learned a second language at an early age have been found to have better memory and attention levels than monolingual learners. Bilingualism has also been linked to delayed onset of Alzheimer’s as numerous studies have found that bilinguals are more resilient in dealing with neurodegeneration than monolinguals. Numerous studies have found a link between bilingualism and creativity, with research suggesting that bilinguals’ enhanced executive functioning and experience with multiple cultures contribute to their creativity level.Many people in the UK do speak languages other than English due to their heritage and upbringing. The potential of these heritage language speakers needs to be recognised. More than 1.5 million British children are growing up bilingual, yet most don’t enter for a GCSE or A Level in the language they speak at home. This means they don’t develop the academic skills to use their language professionally. This is a missed opportunity.But there is also an opportunity cost to doing an exam in a language you already know.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 18, 2024 11:44:30 GMT
From Sam Freedman, startling figures
'For those asking the numbers for people over 50 are:
Lab: 35% Con: 30% Reform: 18% LD: 8% Green: 4% SNP: 2%
The swing against the Tories is actually bigger for older people. It's just coming from a much higher starting point'
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 18, 2024 12:10:37 GMT
From Sam Freedman, startling figures 'For those asking the numbers for people over 50 are: Lab: 35% Con: 30% Reform: 18% LD: 8% Green: 4% SNP: 2% The swing against the Tories is actually bigger for older people. It's just coming from a much higher starting point' For the under 50's it's dire for the tories Lab 60% Con 10% Green 10% LD 9% Reform 5% SNP 3%
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Post by graham on Jan 18, 2024 12:12:08 GMT
Peston was interesting last night, not only because the programme broke the news of that astonishing You Gov poll, and also ran the rather revealing interview with a lick-lipping and salivating Farage, but also because of the inclusion of Rebecca Long-Bailey as part of the in-studio panel. Gavin Barwell, very much a member of the fast dwindling sensible and thoughtful Tory faction, was the other. Peston tried to goad Long-Bailey into some Starmer bashing and displays of residual Corbyn admiration. She declined to indulge in either, giving a rather more nuanced and ambivalent assessment of where the current Labour Party was positioned and the political situation more generally. A cynic may be tempted to put this down to political positioning and a very understandable desire not to to burn too many boats with the current leadership, especially considering that Starmer is likely to be allocating Ministerial jobs within the next 12 months. Nothing wrong with that; Long-Bailey is an astute politician doing what astute politicians do But I wonder if something more profound was going on here. A mature recognition that you can't cling on to betrayal narratives too long in the political rough house? Not if you want to get on and change your country for the better, anyway. I'm up to the 1966 general election, and the Labour landslide, in Nick Thomas-Symonds excellent biography of Wilson. The internal battles and factional warfare was only just to begin in earnest within Labour in many ways, but the story of Wilson's ascent to the top of British politics, from being the youngest ever Cabinet member at 31, in Attlees's Cabinet, and through the Bevanite and Gaitskellite warfare wilderness years of the 1950s, is a story of political intrigue, chicanery and skullduggery. Not for the faint hearted at all and the brutality was practiced on all wings, and in all factions, of the party. But in the end, hatchets were buried and the really big beasts moved on. But what emerged, eventually, with much blood on the carpet, were the best people getting into position to get Labour into power so that they could do things. And I think they did some very good things. Fratricide is an inevitable and good thing in politics. It's a sort of law of nature where natural attrition and renewal occurs. Johnson needed to go, Corbyn too, for the sake of both their parties. Swords were wielded internally and, in the end, clever politicians move on. Martyrs without a real cause don't and are usually heard of no more. I think we'll hear a lot more of Long-Bailey. Wilson was very young at 31 , but far from being the youngest ever Cabinet Minister. William Pitt says Hello!
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2024 12:25:44 GMT
From Sam Freedman, startling figures 'For those asking the numbers for people over 50 are: Lab: 35% Con: 30% Reform: 18% LD: 8% Green: 4% SNP: 2% The swing against the Tories is actually bigger for older people. It's just coming from a much higher starting point' That is very telling. A very deep disillusionment.!
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 18, 2024 12:38:51 GMT
Peston was interesting last night, not only because the programme broke the news of that astonishing You Gov poll, and also ran the rather revealing interview with a lick-lipping and salivating Farage, but also because of the inclusion of Rebecca Long-Bailey as part of the in-studio panel. Gavin Barwell, very much a member of the fast dwindling sensible and thoughtful Tory faction, was the other. Peston tried to goad Long-Bailey into some Starmer bashing and displays of residual Corbyn admiration. She declined to indulge in either, giving a rather more nuanced and ambivalent assessment of where the current Labour Party was positioned and the political situation more generally. A cynic may be tempted to put this down to political positioning and a very understandable desire not to to burn too many boats with the current leadership, especially considering that Starmer is likely to be allocating Ministerial jobs within the next 12 months. Nothing wrong with that; Long-Bailey is an astute politician doing what astute politicians do But I wonder if something more profound was going on here. A mature recognition that you can't cling on to betrayal narratives too long in the political rough house? Not if you want to get on and change your country for the better, anyway. I'm up to the 1966 general election, and the Labour landslide, in Nick Thomas-Symonds excellent biography of Wilson. The internal battles and factional warfare was only just to begin in earnest within Labour in many ways, but the story of Wilson's ascent to the top of British politics, from being the youngest ever Cabinet member at 31, in Attlees's Cabinet, and through the Bevanite and Gaitskellite warfare wilderness years of the 1950s, is a story of political intrigue, chicanery and skullduggery. Not for the faint hearted at all and the brutality was practiced on all wings, and in all factions, of the party. But in the end, hatchets were buried and the really big beasts moved on. But what emerged, eventually, with much blood on the carpet, were the best people getting into position to get Labour into power so that they could do things. And I think they did some very good things. Fratricide is an inevitable and good thing in politics. It's a sort of law of nature where natural attrition and renewal occurs. Johnson needed to go, Corbyn too, for the sake of both their parties. Swords were wielded internally and, in the end, clever politicians move on. Martyrs without a real cause don't and are usually heard of no more. I think we'll hear a lot more of Long-Bailey. Wilson was very young at 31 , but far from being the youngest ever Cabinet Minister. William Pitt says Hello! Ah yes, you got me. I should have said 20th century. Thomas-Symonds made that point too and I forgot to mention it. Wilson was youngest ever Cabinet member of the 20th century. I apologise to my readership for the factual error.
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Post by robbiealive on Jan 18, 2024 12:43:37 GMT
Dont we have to really wait for the campaign proper jimjam before polling really means anything ? All the media exposure-interviews & debates etc ? .... With just a couple of exceptions, the 'campaign proper' rarely produces more than a few points movement in the polls. Other than Labour's surge in 2017, and the Lib/SDP Alliance in 1983, I can't recall any other case of a party gaining a really significant increase in VI. That's comparing the polls at the start with the polls at the end. Polling error, as seen in 1992, 2015, and to a lesser extent 2017, 1997 and 2001, is another matter. And to answer JJ's point: YouGov's recent average has been a 22 lead, so this is 5 points above that. The most striking thing about this latest poll is the Con to Ref movement. As the fieldwork was 16-17 Jan, it is the most recent poll, so the 17 points with with Savanta a few days earlier does help to show it as a likely outlier. And the average Labour lead across all polls is up by around 2 points for the first polls of 2024, so we might have expected a lead of around 24. So there are black swans in the observational record.
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Post by Mark on Jan 18, 2024 12:50:18 GMT
Re-Tories losing votes to Reform.
I'm afraid they've brought it on themselves...and it's just like Brexit. You wonder if they ever learn.
I bet that if you stand in any city centre with a clipboard and annoy shoppers / stop shoppers to ask what Sunak's 5 pledges are (not whether or not they agree with them, just whether they can name them), you can bet your life that "stop the boats" would come out top - and probobly by quite some margin.
Added to that, tey've picked a scheme that is extemely high cost per asyslum seeker, even if a few do get depeorted to Rwanda, is controversial, has likely multiple legal challenges even if it does somehow get through the lords - and less than a year to go until the GE, a lan that Labour have said they will scrap anyway.
....and they have continues to big up the issue constantly.
We have reached the point that, even in the small grouping that is UKPR2, we have ROC posters saying that they're not stopping the boats and they need to do so to avoid losing badly at the next election.
Such members are highly unlikely to agree with me on this issue, but, they are the ones that should be easy picking for the tories.
Putting the issue front and centre with a plan tat is almost designed to fail will, of courese, push some voters into the arms of Reform....voters that, had the tories not made such a song and dance about immigration, may have prioritised other issues.
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Post by isa on Jan 18, 2024 12:55:34 GMT
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Post by leftieliberal on Jan 18, 2024 13:29:55 GMT
bardin1 - "Imagine how much more pleasant the UK would be with half the population." So long as we get rid of the right half... I'd rather it was the left half.. Just as long as we keep the centre-halves.
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Post by shevii on Jan 18, 2024 13:38:16 GMT
A cynic may be tempted to put this down to political positioning and a very understandable desire not to to burn too many boats with the current leadership, especially considering that Starmer is likely to be allocating Ministerial jobs within the next 12 months. Nothing wrong with that; Long-Bailey is an astute politician doing what astute politicians do But I wonder if something more profound was going on here. A mature recognition that you can't cling on to betrayal narratives too long in the political rough house? Not if you want to get on and change your country for the better, anyway. Is it really that cynical to suggest she's leaning towards the first? Anyone who is in politics wants to "make a difference" and the Robin Cooks of this world are in short supply really once politicians take the view that being inside the tent is better than being outside it- plenty of good arguments for thinking that way as well but sometimes politicians can be deluded in the extent of their powers and ability to make that difference. One example where they did was Mo Mowlam in a relatively "junior" position in the sense that Northern Ireland had often been treated as a position where you really didn't have a hope of changing anything very much and people tended to get "dumped" there, although Blair may have seen this role differently. But those examples are few and far between when most key decisions will be taken by the PM and Treasury so you're left with further promotion ambitions and/or trying to seek out policies which don't cost much but can be sneaked through. Ed Miliband is clearly in that position where the spending that would make a difference has been mostly put on hold indefinitely and he's left with hoping he can come up with some cost effective no brainers to help things along. The other thing you have to remember with politicians is that they have devoted much of their lives to the party and have a close connection with it so rocking the boat is something that doesn't come easily, letting down friends and colleagues. Vince Cable doesn't seem to get much flack on here and yet I remember having chats with people about how on earth was Cable putting up with this and not pulling the plug (cable/plug unintended!). Throughout the coalition I remember him being much more nuanced than his colleagues when they were on their Labour maxing out the credit card nonsense, but yet he must still feel a sense of regret for sticking with his party and thinking he made any difference whatsoever.
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Post by leftieliberal on Jan 18, 2024 13:48:16 GMT
Lord Ashcroft poll, I haven't seen reported hereTory 27%, Labour 44%, LibDem 6%, Green 6%, Reform 10% But his methodology is weird, and most definitely not comparable with other pollsters Rather than ask them how they intended to vote, we asked how likely they currently thought they were to end up voting for each party on a 100-point scale. Looking at those who give one party a highest score of 50 or above out of 100So a voter who responded 49% Labour, 49% Lib Dem, 2% Reform would be treated as a Don't Know!
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,417
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 18, 2024 13:52:18 GMT
For the under 50's it's dire for the tories Lab 60% Con 10% Green 10% LD 9% Reform 5% SNP 3% Which suggests that in the longer term the Tories are in big trouble unless they fundamentally reinvent themselves to offer something positive to younger and working age people. Historically the Conservatives have been good at such reinvention - but the current party seems wedded to specific ideologies (social and economic) in a way it wasn't in the past. To paraphrase some advertising: "The future's bright, the future isn't looking blue"
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neilj
Member
Posts: 6,052
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Post by neilj on Jan 18, 2024 14:25:46 GMT
For the under 50's it's dire for the tories Lab 60% Con 10% Green 10% LD 9% Reform 5% SNP 3% Which suggests that in the longer term the Tories are in big trouble unless they fundamentally reinvent themselves to offer something positive to younger and working age people. Historically the Conservatives have been good such reinvention - but the current party seems wedded to specific ideologies (social and economic) in a way it wasn't in the past. To paraphrase some advertising: "The future's bright, the future isn't looking blue" Agree, I posted a few days back that due to the differing age demographics 8% of tory 2019 voters had died, compared to just 3% ofLabour voters Tory voters are literally dying out
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Post by leftieliberal on Jan 18, 2024 14:39:35 GMT
Humza Yousaf not 'comfortable' with SNP's name www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-68017535I can tell him that people recognise us as the same Party, despite name changes: Liberal Party, SDP-Liberal Alliance, SLD, Lib Dems. Changing a party's name doesn't help if you've lost popularity. I don't think it is any different for the Brexit Party/Reform UK. Everyone knows they are the same and they probably still think of Nigel Farage as Party leader.
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Post by guymonde on Jan 18, 2024 14:40:52 GMT
Ah yes, you got me. I should have said 20th century. Thomas-Symonds made that point too and I forgot to mention it.
Wilson was youngest ever Cabinet member of the 20th century.
I apologise to my readership for the factual error.
I forgive you. Not sure about that shirt though
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