pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 16, 2024 16:54:59 GMT
It wasn't a question. No point to someone who makes assumptions like that. Its all about teams and sides for him and he cant imagine it not being. Takes all sorts. There isn't an emoji to do justice this, I am afraid. You could devise one involving a pot and kettle perhaps.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 16, 2024 16:55:24 GMT
In fascist Bob knows best news Robert Jenrick tells MPs he rejects government’s claim Rwanda would not accept tougher bill.
Of course it isn't just the Sunakered regime that asserts this it's Rwandan government who have made it abundantly clear that they won't accept an agreement that fails to comply with international law, but they'll have the £400 million any way of course.
But Bob knows better because he does not accept this argument. He says Rwanda is not party to the European convention on human rights.
No shit Bob but they are part of the United Nations and the Rwandan legislation as he envisaged it breaches The Universal Declaration of Human Rights (Article 14), which states that everyone has the right to seek and enjoy asylum from persecution in other countries. The 1951 UN Refugee Convention (and its 1967 Protocol), which protects refugees from being returned to countries where they risk being persecuted.
Maybe Bob hasn't heard that Brexitania hasn't left the world just its senses.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 16, 2024 16:57:52 GMT
Just for the record, I don't particularly want the Tories to win, indeed I think their time is up. However like other posters I don't think a massive Labour majority would be particularly healthy, and the poor performance in locals seems to indicate that there might not be one. "the poor performance in locals". In the May 2023 local elections Labour increased its vote share by 7% compared to 2019, gained 537 councillors to become the largest party in local government for the first time since 2002, gained 22 councils to take its total to 71 (more than the Conservatives, Lib Dems and Greens combined) and led the Conservatives in the popular vote by 9%. Next! en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_electionsen.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_electionsColin's given up on me on electoral reform, and all things else too probably, and I think you and I should probably give up on Mercian on this subject, I think. There's probably no point. I will say no more, anyway.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 16, 2024 17:15:13 GMT
Colin's given up on me on electoral reform, and all things else too probably, and I think you and I should probably give up on Mercian on this subject, I think. There's probably no point. I will say no more, anyway. I have in mind some poor innocent lurker who has found this site and is expecting a mine of facts studded with nuggets of wisdom and instead has to put up with us lot. My original reason for lurking on UKPR1 was to read Anthony Wells' musings on polling. I know that many think he had his shortcomings as a moderator of a forum, but I do miss those.
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Post by mercian on Jan 16, 2024 17:24:09 GMT
Just for the record, I don't particularly want the Tories to win, indeed I think their time is up. However like other posters I don't think a massive Labour majority would be particularly healthy, and the poor performance in locals seems to indicate that there might not be one. "the poor performance in locals". In the May 2023 local elections Labour increased its vote share by 7% compared to 2019, gained 537 councillors to become the largest party in local government for the first time since 2002, gained 22 councils to take its total to 71 (more than the Conservatives, Lib Dems and Greens combined) and led the Conservatives in the popular vote by 9%. Next! en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_electionsen.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_electionsAs you know we were discussing local by-elections. I know Labour has made gains but their percentage vote often falls compared to previous local elections in those seats. It indicates nothing more than there is not an overwhelming surge of popularity for Labour. EDIT: There are 6 local by-elections this week. I will be interested to see whether the usual pattern holds or whether Labour start to surge now that the GE is in sight.
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Post by Rafwan on Jan 16, 2024 17:46:50 GMT
steveNo, I don’t think you made it up. It appears that plenty of people purport to believe the same thing. The point is not how many and who says it, but is it actually true? I am quite certain that you do know it is not, in fact, true; the acrimony was a result of fierce faction-fighting and had no basis whatsoever in any antisemitism. You may think this falsehood is just part of the rough and tumble of political exchange. But it is not. Falsely suggesting that Labour had become a ‘safe haven for antisemitism’ is highly damaging and brings fear and misery to many Jewish people. That is why I ask you not to endorse this falsehood.
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Post by athena on Jan 16, 2024 17:56:00 GMT
We're exchanging different statistics here. Yours are for England, whereas mine are for the whole of the UK. I thought that was the better statistic considering you were basing your point about Labour's weakness of rural support on UK wide opinion polls. My statistics derived from this fairly reliable source:- www.statista.com/statistics/270369/urbanization-in-the-united-kingdom/You are missing my point, which was dull enough the first time round (sigh). Given a rural population of 9.7 million in England (per ONS), the Statista figure for the UK can only be accurate if you assume implausibly small rural populations in Scotland, Wales and NI. I'd be surprised if Scotland and Wales don't have proportionally higher rural populations than England (wouldn't have a clue about NI), but I didn't check. I only bothered checking at all because your total population looked too small and you hadn't provided a source. When I did a search the first link I clicked on said that different classifications are used in the different UK nations (suggesting that calculating UK figures might not be straightforward), so I started with England and didn't see the need to go any further. Statista doesn't provide information about the data underlying its figures, so I'd rather trust the ONS. In any case, as I also said before, a few percent one way or the other doesn't affect the substantive argument.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 16, 2024 17:57:03 GMT
Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke-Smith resign over the Rwanda vote
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 16, 2024 18:03:08 GMT
pjw1961
I had some misgivings about Mr Wells impartiality, and his moderating consistency too, but he was, without doubt, a very erudite psephologist.
If nothing else, he was a constant and wise counsellor in terms of warning us all about the classic mistakes to avoid when studying opinion polls. How they are often abused and misinterpreted. I remember him being specifically upset by people reading too much, or anything at all, into local government by election results
Alas, this wise advice was often ignored and it would appear that some still peddle the very canards he highlighted.
Stupidity or wilful ignorance? Difficult to tell.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2024 18:14:41 GMT
Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke-Smith resign over the Rwanda vote They will be sadly missed.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 16, 2024 18:20:09 GMT
70 voted for the Bill Cash ammendment, 62 thought to be tory, other 8 DUP Quite a large number, question is how many will vote against the Bill tomorrow
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Post by chrisc on Jan 16, 2024 18:21:55 GMT
Colin's given up on me on electoral reform, and all things else too probably, and I think you and I should probably give up on Mercian on this subject, I think. There's probably no point. I will say no more, anyway. I have in mind some poor innocent lurker who has found this site and is expecting a mine of facts studded with nuggets of wisdom and instead has to put up with us lot. My original reason for lurking on UKPR1 was to read Anthony Wells' musings on polling. I know that many think he had his shortcomings as a moderator of a forum, but I do miss those. You can still find his musings on Twitter\X @anthonyjwells . Though tend to be shorter and snappier than his editorials on ukpr 1. Mind you if you miss longer articles on polling the original uk polling report site has a riveting article on the upcoming mid Staffordshire by-election …..
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 16, 2024 18:24:13 GMT
Rafwan I no longer consider the Labour party to be a safe haven for antisemitism, more significant neither does the Jewish community. I have several concerns about the current Labour party leadership and their inadequate position on Europe and electoral reform but antisemitism isn't one of my concerns. If you don't believe your own party MPs on their views well that's your choice. "Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke-Smith resign over the Rwanda vote They will be sadly missed." Said nobody ever
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jan 16, 2024 18:32:47 GMT
One of the more bizarre incidents I saw when I was doing hunt sabs was the hunt straying onto private land- a sort of small field/huge lawn and a bloke in a West Ham shirt stormed out of his house. I don't think he was particularly taking sides between pros and antis but he was a bit less restrained in his comments than you were with plenty of get orf my farking land type comments thrown into the mix. I'm still at a bit of a loss to work out the demographic of that particular rural voter and Labour would need to think very hard about their targeting message. Well, this is what you get from West Ham fans. See Lulu the Lemon and Dave's posts for further evidence. All joking apart, that in all possibility could have been my brother. shevii, it wasn't in Surrey by any chance (he made a packet in the city and moved out that way)? He's a rabid Hammers fan as well as being very anti-hunting.
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Post by pete on Jan 16, 2024 18:49:13 GMT
The Tories psychodrama continues. Around and around we go where we'll end up nobody knows. They really are a bunch of shits who should give us an election to put the country out of its misery. Don't dare tell me Tory MPs are patriots, they're self-serving a/holes. While they keep going through their pathetic little dramas people are losing their homes and struggling to feed their kids, and there are more homeless and food bank usage than ever in my lifetime and these idiots seriously don't give a damn.
We need an election, we need rid.
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Post by hireton on Jan 16, 2024 19:00:25 GMT
athena"I'd be surprised if Scotland and Wales don't have proportionally higher rural populations than England" Although definitions of "rural" can differ, Scotland has virtually the same % of its population living in rural areas (17%) compared to England (17.1%).
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 16, 2024 19:01:48 GMT
Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke-Smith resign over the Rwanda vote They will be sadly missed. Sadly, Crofto, they're not going anywhere, are they? I suppose they are resigning their pretty nebulous jobs of deputy leaders, but I fear they will be men unleashed on the backbenches now, probably more vocal and visible as ever.
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Post by Rafwan on Jan 16, 2024 19:05:27 GMT
steveI guess that is as close as we will get (for the time being at least). I do say, however, that the very concept of “the Jewish community” is of itself antisemitic.
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Post by graham on Jan 16, 2024 19:13:24 GMT
New Hampshire poll from ARG has Trump and Haley both on 40%. I suspect Haley is going to win there!
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Post by shevii on Jan 16, 2024 19:25:24 GMT
Well, this is what you get from West Ham fans. See Lulu the Lemon and Dave's posts for further evidence. All joking apart, that in all possibility could have been my brother. shevii , it wasn't in Surrey by any chance (he made a packet in the city and moved out that way)? He's a rabid Hammers fan as well as being very anti-hunting.I've no idea (and no idea where it was- could have been any of the home counties). What I can tell you was that he didn't have a light sabre in his hand!
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jan 16, 2024 19:36:39 GMT
There you go again, deriding games of soldiers. Why do people do this, I wonder? The dismissal usually involves contemptuous expletives too. My brother and I, when we were kids, used to while away many a happy hour playing games of soldiers. His British Paratroopers usually routing my Nazi Stormtroopers too. A sort of morality tale in many ways, although my Red Indian savages quite often held sway against his British Redcoats. Tsk Tsk
Surely a morality tale should be consistent? In this case, the noble British Paratroopers routing the aggressors would need to be considered as equivalent to the noble "Red Indians" overcoming the British Redcoat savages (many of whom were Hanoverians anyway), who had invaded their lands.
Your use of "although" would indicate a deep seated "my country's military, right or wrong" indoctrination from your childhood has not yet been eradicated.
Any lurker, who had read few of your posts, might well take you for some kind of jingoistic nationalist, so (in the spirit of pjw1961), I thought I'd let them know that you are no jingoist.
Incidentally, with my older brothers - their age group being perhaps the last set of Scots kids to play "Scots and English", not "Cowboys and Injuns", the eldest insisted on being the Jacobites, while the younger had to be the Redcoats who got regularly beaten. Such early characterisations do take years to be replaced - if they ever do.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 16, 2024 19:48:26 GMT
More bad news for Sunak
Reform UK, who previously said they wouldn't stand in Kingswood by-election, have now selected a candidate
Rupert Lowe, the former Chairman of Southampton FC & Brexit Party MEP, is the candidate
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Post by mercian on Jan 16, 2024 20:16:11 GMT
pjw1961 I had some misgivings about Mr Wells impartiality, and his moderating consistency too, but he was, without doubt, a very erudite psephologist. If nothing else, he was a constant and wise counsellor in terms of warning us all about the classic mistakes to avoid when studying opinion polls. How they are often abused and misinterpreted. I remember him being specifically upset by people reading too much, or anything at all, into local government by election results Alas, this wise advice was often ignored and it would appear that some still peddle the very canards he highlighted. Stupidity or wilful ignorance? Difficult to tell. It's just interesting you patronising git. Makes a change from the polldrums and taken together they can be read as an indicator of the electorate's mood.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 16, 2024 20:28:46 GMT
As you know we were discussing local by-elections. I know Labour has made gains but their percentage vote often falls compared to previous local elections in those seats. It indicates nothing more than there is not an overwhelming surge of popularity for Labour. EDIT: There are 6 local by-elections this week. I will be interested to see whether the usual pattern holds or whether Labour start to surge now that the GE is in sight. The May elections involved over 8,000 seats. There were only 119 ordinary council by-elections between May and December 2023. It is clear that the May elections are the better reference point than a handful of by-elections.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 16, 2024 20:35:55 GMT
More bad news for Sunak Reform UK, who previously said they wouldn't stand in Kingswood by-election, have now selected a candidate Rupert Lowe, the former Chairman of Southampton FC & Brexit Party MEP, is the candidate I predict he will get a Lowe vote - boom, boom
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 16, 2024 20:57:24 GMT
pjw1961 I had some misgivings about Mr Wells impartiality, and his moderating consistency too, but he was, without doubt, a very erudite psephologist. If nothing else, he was a constant and wise counsellor in terms of warning us all about the classic mistakes to avoid when studying opinion polls. How they are often abused and misinterpreted. I remember him being specifically upset by people reading too much, or anything at all, into local government by election results Alas, this wise advice was often ignored and it would appear that some still peddle the very canards he highlighted. Stupidity or wilful ignorance? Difficult to tell. It's just interesting you patronising git. Makes a change from the polldrums and taken together they can be read as an indicator of the electorate's mood. Now, now Mercy Man. I"m only carrying out my important role as site cobblers-buster. You're perfectly entitled to talk cobblers, and no doubt will continue to do so, but I feel obliged, on behalf of the site if nothing else, to call out the cobblers whenever it's being cobbled The repetition of cobblers, recobblering I think is the technical term, in defiance of all the evidence proving it to be so, is a particularly heinous offence. You are on your very last warning.
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Post by mercian on Jan 16, 2024 20:58:25 GMT
As you know we were discussing local by-elections. I know Labour has made gains but their percentage vote often falls compared to previous local elections in those seats. It indicates nothing more than there is not an overwhelming surge of popularity for Labour. EDIT: There are 6 local by-elections this week. I will be interested to see whether the usual pattern holds or whether Labour start to surge now that the GE is in sight. The May elections involved over 8,000 seats. There were only 119 ordinary council by-elections between May and December 2023. It is clear that the May elections are the better reference point than a handful of by-elections. Except of course that the by-elections are more recent. You yourself used to post details of them until you realised that they weren't particularly good for Labour. Anyway, I'm not reading anything into them except that I find it interesting that with Labour consistently around 20% ahead in the polls their performance in these elections is relatively poor. It could all change this week of course and Labour sweep all 6 (3 are Labour seats anyway). If they do, that in itself will be interesting.
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Post by mercian on Jan 16, 2024 21:00:40 GMT
You are on your very last warning. 😛
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 16, 2024 21:04:05 GMT
More bad news for Sunak Reform UK, who previously said they wouldn't stand in Kingswood by-election, have now selected a candidate Rupert Lowe, the former Chairman of Southampton FC & Brexit Party MEP, is the candidate No wonder he liked Matt Le Tissier. Le Tiss has recently disappeared down all sorts of right wing rabbit holes. inews.co.uk/sport/football/matt-le-tissier-conspiracy-theorist-compliment-2383659He's almost straying into David Icke Giant Lizard country.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 16, 2024 21:05:03 GMT
Danny - over on the Covid thread a couple of days ago you said "The sad truth is that those in the Uk who had most corona virus infections beforre covid, had fewest deaths during the epidemic." I asked you for the data upon which you based that statement, and posted three published papers that showed the exact opposite. I was basing that on an interview with an expert on corona diseases which I heard broadcast on a R4 medical program probably mid 2020. I thought it rather remarkable at the time. The guy explained that schoolkids get about 3 or 4 corona virus infections a year typically, wheras for adults its more like 1 every 3 years, and thats an average with fewer as you age. He was of course talking about corona viruses in common circulation before covid. A topic of research not very interesting to anyone much before covid. And so, the group who had most infections before covid was the young, the group with least the old, and then covid deaths were amongst the old. QED, I thought. You do still seem to want to keep dredging this up here, which is fine by me. I'd remind you also of some research on effectiveness of vaccinations reported from california, so I guess early 2021 when this was getting going, where a study of early vaccine receivers and local inhabitants concluded that the covid vaccine induced cross immunity to sars and mers, and in reverse those who already had those antibodies showed as reacting against covid too. That was not the headline of the study, which reported on how effective the vaccine was, but in the process they gave all their subjects a battery of antibody tests, with those other interesting results.
Exposure to corona viruses did indeed give you protection against covid. I appreciate you believe we would all have been better off without this, but each to his own. I think its why eg Japan had so few deaths from covid, especially in the early stages. Exactly how some pacific states managed to control it when europe and most of the rest of the world failed. They had, in effect, already received a vaccination before it got started. The Japanese example is particularly interesting, because you yourself have highlighted more serious outbreaks in Japan recently than in the first waves, despite their also receiving vaccinations. This suggests, somewhat as per Hastings in spring 2020, that Japan had immunity to the early strains of covid before they arrived, which was however less effective against the later strains which could then make headway in Japan. Just as you would expect if their protection had been due to prior immunity.
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