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Post by James E on Jan 16, 2024 21:08:29 GMT
Re Local By-Elections:
I posted the below in December 2022, repeating what I had stated previously on the same subject and re-quoting Anthony Wells' comments on UKPR1 in 2009.
So regular readers may have read this several times before, but not for at least a year...........
"Our former host on UKPR1 wrote on this in 2009 : "Can local by elections predict general elections?"
"Sum of local by-elections Jan-May 2005: CON 33%, LAB 26%, LDEM 31%
Actual general election result 2005: CON 33%, LAB 36%, LDEM 23%
Sum of local by-elections Jan-Jun 2001: CON 32%, LAB 30%, LDEM 26%
Actual general election result 2001: CON 33%, LAB 42%, LDEM 18%
Sum of local by-elections Jan-May 1997: CON 28%, LAB 37%, LDEM 30%
Actual general election result 1997: CON 31%, LAB 44%, LDEM 17%"
So Labour underperformed by 7, 12 and 10 points in pre-GE local by elections, and the LDs overperformed by 13, 8 and 8 points. The Conservatives' share is quite close to the subsequent GE results, though.
Incidentally, the LDs overperform (and Labour tend to underperform) in all Local Elections: another UKPR article from 2012 puts the LibDem overperformance at 7 points on average.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2024 21:18:32 GMT
It's just interesting you patronising git. Makes a change from the polldrums and taken together they can be read as an indicator of the electorate's mood. Now, now Mercy Man. I"m only carrying out my important role as site cobblers-buster. You're perfectly entitled to talk cobblers, and no doubt will continue to do so, but I feel obliged, on behalf of the site if nothing else, to call out the cobblers whenever it's being cobbled The repetition of cobblers, recobblering I think is the technical term, in defiance of all the evidence proving it to be so, is a particularly heinous offence. You are on your very last warning. I made it his very first warning.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2024 21:23:40 GMT
I do say, however, that the very concept of “the Jewish community” is of itself antisemitic. I’m starting to feel some sympathy for mercian’s confusion with all these rules.
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Post by leftieliberal on Jan 16, 2024 21:24:42 GMT
Maybe, maybe not. The annual CPI for December due tomorrow morning is expected to be 3.8% (-0.1%) and there are some economists in the City who think it could be below the Bank of England's 2% target by the April measurement (which we won't know until this time in May). If the BoE does decide to start reducing interest rates because inflation is falling (I'm not confident that they will, but they might) that is going to start making all those people on tracker and variable-rate mortgages better off. I still don't expect the Tories to win whenever the election is, but we shouldn't exclude the possibility of a feelgood factor during the summer.
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Post by Rafwan on Jan 16, 2024 21:35:25 GMT
I do say, however, that the very concept of “the Jewish community” is of itself antisemitic. I’m starting to feel some sympathy for mercian ’s confusion with all these rules. Don’t. It’s pretty obvious really.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 16, 2024 21:45:00 GMT
The May elections involved over 8,000 seats. There were only 119 ordinary council by-elections between May and December 2023. It is clear that the May elections are the better reference point than a handful of by-elections. Except of course that the by-elections are more recent. You yourself used to post details of them until you realised that they weren't particularly good for Labour. Anyway, I'm not reading anything into them except that I find it interesting that with Labour consistently around 20% ahead in the polls their performance in these elections is relatively poor. It could all change this week of course and Labour sweep all 6 (3 are Labour seats anyway). If they do, that in itself will be interesting. A scurrilous accusation. I have only missed one week (there was a pause in by-elections over the Christmas/New Year period) and that was simply because I forgot! Normal service will be resumed this week (unless I forget again). Of the six this week I would predict 2 Labour holds, 1 Labour loss to the Lib Dems (Hackney), 1 Lib Dem gain from Conservatives (Richmond upon Thames, Hampton North) and two Lib Dem holds. Labour have problems in Hackney, where the candidate has been suspended by the party pending investigation for social media posts that have led to complaints from other members. Officially, Labour are no longer campaigning. By the way if you think Labour have been under-performing since May 2023 (which I don't), have a look at the Conservative performance in the same period!
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2024 21:48:58 GMT
I’m starting to feel some sympathy for mercian ’s confusion with all these rules. Don’t. It’s pretty obvious really. From the Crown Prosecution Service: I rest my case. ”Man convicted after goading Manchester Jewish community with offensive t-shirt. 20 November 2023. A man who wore a t-shirt with offensive wording relating to the conflict in the Middle East while visiting an area with a large Jewish community has pleaded guilty to committing an antisemitic hate crime. At 11.30am on Monday 9 October Robert Hughes, 69, from Whitefield, Bury, was seen by numerous members of the Jewish community walking along Kings Road in Prestwich, entering shops and speaking to people whilst wearing the offensive bright blue t-shirt.” Maybe you should drop the CPS a line?
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 16, 2024 21:49:45 GMT
Now, now Mercy Man. I"m only carrying out my important role as site cobblers-buster. You're perfectly entitled to talk cobblers, and no doubt will continue to do so, but I feel obliged, on behalf of the site if nothing else, to call out the cobblers whenever it's being cobbled The repetition of cobblers, recobblering I think is the technical term, in defiance of all the evidence proving it to be so, is a particularly heinous offence. You are on your very last warning. I made it his very first warning. He's on his 27th. The other 26 were delivered via Personal Message.
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isa
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Post by isa on Jan 16, 2024 21:50:07 GMT
Maybe, maybe not. The annual CPI for December due tomorrow morning is expected to be 3.8% (-0.1%) and there are some economists in the City who think it could be below the Bank of England's 2% target by the April measurement (which we won't know until this time in May). If the BoE does decide to start reducing interest rates because inflation is falling (I'm not confident that they will, but they might) that is going to start making all those people on tracker and variable-rate mortgages better off. I still don't expect the Tories to win whenever the election is, but we shouldn't exclude the possibility of a feelgood factor during the summer. True, but even if rates do drop, many people coming off fixed rate mortgages, (I think I read c100k per month), will still be facing much higher monthly repayments than they are currently paying when they re-fix, as their previous fixes a couple of years or so ago will have been at much lower rates.
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Post by mercian on Jan 16, 2024 22:04:07 GMT
I do say, however, that the very concept of “the Jewish community” is of itself antisemitic. I’m starting to feel some sympathy for mercian ’s confusion with all these rules. Is it still ok to say that someone's confused? Isn't that mental-healthist or something?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2024 22:04:49 GMT
I’m wondering if the Crime Prosecution Service can prosecute itself? Certainly hope so.
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Post by alec on Jan 16, 2024 22:04:52 GMT
Danny - Not a published study in sight. Why does that not surprise me? That's a very longwinded way of admitting you're an evidence-free bullshitter. But thank you for confirming this. Now go away.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2024 22:06:04 GMT
I’m starting to feel some sympathy for mercian ’s confusion with all these rules. Is it still ok to say that someone's confused? Isn't that mental-healthist or something? Not if one is an old duffer. (Cue next questions on ageism and dufferism.)
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Post by mercian on Jan 16, 2024 22:07:56 GMT
I made it his very first warning. He's on his 27th. The other 26 were delivered via Personal Message. ✌ That was the nearest emoji I could find to the traditional two-fingered salute. 🤩
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Post by James E on Jan 16, 2024 22:10:48 GMT
Today Peter Barnes of the BBC reports on the prospects of the next General Election, telling us that " Labour needs a national swing of 12.7% to win with just a small majority."www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67361138Strangely, there does not appear to be any BBC coverage of YouGov's large scale MRP, but just to note that a Labour lead of 39.5% to 26% , represents a 12.6% swing from 2019, and therefore would result in a hung parliament per Mr Barnes's understanding : yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48371-yougov-mrp-shows-labour-would-win-1997-style-landslide-if-election-were-held-todayOther gems of wisdom from the same BBC article include "a uniform national swing has been a reliable model for general elections in the UK over a long period of time". So with apologies for repeating myself, this is just how reliably 'uniform' the Con to Lab swings were in 1997 : Safe Conservative held seats 13.5% Middle Conservative held seats 13.0% Marginal Conservative held seats 12.3% Marginal Labour seats 11.8% Middle Labour seats 9.8% Safe Labour seats 7.9% See page 14 of 18 www.dannydorling.org/wp-content/files/dannydorling_publication_id1318.pdfAnd in the 21st century, the apparent "target" (based on Uniform swing from the previous election) needed by the Conservatives to form a majority has shifted in a range from 3% (recently) to around 14% (in the Blair years), while for Labour the range has been even wider, as they could have gained a majority when up to 2% behind in 2005, in contrast to the 13% lead they are now supposed to need. The simple fact that these targets have moved so much in the recent past (it shifted for Labour from 7 to 13 points in 2017-19) gives the lie to the notion that UNS can be used to accurately determine the swing needed from one election to the next.
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Post by alec on Jan 16, 2024 22:11:12 GMT
@leftiliberal - re inflation and voters feeling good; it does look like inflation is to fall sharply, but this looks to be more based on a weaker than expected economy. So I think the feelgood factor could be a touch paradoxical, in the context of polling.
The other observation is whether Cons could benefit from an improving economy. I'm old enough to remember Black Wednesday, which led to major economic adjustments that gave the best part of 5 years of pre-election economic growth, and yet Major was still thrashed.
Sometimes, when the tide is running for change, better economic feelings reassure voters that switching horses is not such a risk, and the opposition reaps the rewards. None of us yet know if that will happen this time around, but the depths to which Conservatives have sunk made any voter return doubtful.
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Post by mercian on Jan 16, 2024 22:20:55 GMT
And in the 21st century, the target needed by the Conservatives to form a majority has shifted in a range from 3% (recently) to around 14% (in the Blair years), while for Labour the range has been even wider, as they could have gained a majority when up to 2% behind in 2005, in contrast to the 13% lead they are now supposed to lead. The simple fact that this target has moved so much in the recent past (it shifted for Labour from 7 to 13 points in 2017-19) gives the lie to the notion that UNS can be used to accurately determine the swing needed from one election to the next. Yes, especially with so many newish players with significant votes if not seats in all cases. e.g. SNP, Green, Reform etc. UNS can give a rough ball-park figure but that's about it.
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Post by eor on Jan 16, 2024 22:50:54 GMT
I made it his very first warning. He's on his 27th. The other 26 were delivered via Personal Message. Honest to god, I read that as "Personal Massage" the first time. And to think I was planning an early night.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 16, 2024 23:10:28 GMT
He's on his 27th. The other 26 were delivered via Personal Message. Honest to god, I read that as "Personal Massage" the first time. And to think I was planning an early night. 🤣🤣 I have communicated via personal massage before, but definitely not with Mercian and, if I remember rightly, it didn't involve a warning either!
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Post by eor on Jan 16, 2024 23:28:02 GMT
jib The traitor did worse than polls predicted I know we tend to look at different aggregators steve but my reaction to the results was that it was a massive win for the pollsters, practically French levels of accuracy. 538 and RCP had Trump on 52.5% and 52.7% and he got 51%. Likewise they had Haley bang on and Ramaswamay within a percent or so as well. They only missed on DeSantis who was predicted 15-16% and got a shade over 21%. For a contest as odd as Iowa and with no prior results to calibrate polls against that's an outstanding polling performace!
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 17, 2024 0:05:46 GMT
Don’t. It’s pretty obvious really.
It is indeed particularly to the Jewish community "Life in North London's 'little Israel' home to one of the UK's largest Jewish communities The Jewish community is thriving more than ever, but many fear there children won't be able to afford to live in the area they grew up in"
"It’s just like Israel but not in Israel," says David who works in Kosher Deli on Golders Green Road. "I’m originally from Israel and it reminds me a lot of home due to the community. I wouldn’t want to live anywhere else."
Better tell the Jewish community in Golders Green that they're being antisemitic by identifying themselves as a Jewish community.
I consider myself reasonably " woke" but sometimes these reinterpretations of the blindingly obvious leave me feeling a teeny bit out of sync with the latest alternative reality.
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Post by mercian on Jan 17, 2024 0:07:14 GMT
He's on his 27th. The other 26 were delivered via Personal Message. Honest to god, I read that as "Personal Massage" the first time. And to think I was planning an early night. crossbat11 has told me that the Personal Massage parlours in Droitwich are the very best he's ever encountered in his extensive experience.
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Post by mercian on Jan 17, 2024 0:22:02 GMT
I've managed to set up a poll for predicting the turnout at the forthcoming GE in the Issue Specific section.
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Post by Rafwan on Jan 17, 2024 0:24:56 GMT
Don’t. It’s pretty obvious really. From the Crown Prosecution Service: I rest my case. ”Man convicted after goading Manchester Jewish community with offensive t-shirt. 20 November 2023. A man who wore a t-shirt with offensive wording relating to the conflict in the Middle East while visiting an area with a large Jewish community has pleaded guilty to committing an antisemitic hate crime. At 11.30am on Monday 9 October Robert Hughes, 69, from Whitefield, Bury, was seen by numerous members of the Jewish community walking along Kings Road in Prestwich, entering shops and speaking to people whilst wearing the offensive bright blue t-shirt.” Maybe you should drop the CPS a line? Sorry, Crofty, no offence meant. The CPS use the term in a benign way here to mean people who in varying degrees associate with a network of heritage, cultural values, ways of living, beliefs, etc. The term becomes antisemitic when all these people are treated as one indistinguishable blob, with no variation between them. There are large numbers of Jewish people who never considered Corbyn’s Labour Party to be antisemitic. To suggest otherwise is to endorse a disreputable form of factionalism.
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Post by eor on Jan 17, 2024 0:32:33 GMT
So Iowa is done... for the Republicans at least. I made a mistake in my post a few days ago about the early schedule, when I said Iowa and New Hampshire were as normal for both - it turns out that the Democrats did have their usual caucuses in Iowa but instead of tabulating their votes on the night, this year the state party had agreed with the national party that everyone would then go home and vote by post instead, so that the result can be held over until some more reliably Biden-friendly states have done their primaries and he's got plenty of momentum.
A fairly benign bit of electoral skulduggery, especially by American standards, but one that really reinforces some of the arguments made for proportional electoral systems in the last few days. Cos here we have a FPTP system causing a national party organisation to reach an inflection point and accept that the incumbent candidate they didn't actually want is incredibly weak and so....the party system must be altered to ensure his best chance of success, rather than allowing internal challenge and debate. Because in a binary contest for power, getting the win is all that matters.
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Post by Rafwan on Jan 17, 2024 0:42:53 GMT
Don’t. It’s pretty obvious really. It is indeed particularly to the Jewish community "Life in North London's 'little Israel' home to one of the UK's largest Jewish communities The Jewish community is thriving more than ever, but many fear there children won't be able to afford to live in the area they grew up in" "It’s just like Israel but not in Israel," says David who works in Kosher Deli on Golders Green Road. "I’m originally from Israel and it reminds me a lot of home due to the community. I wouldn’t want to live anywhere else." Better tell the Jewish community in Golders Green that they're being antisemitic by identifying themselves as a Jewish community. I consider myself reasonably " woke" but sometimes these reinterpretations of the blindingly obvious leave me feeling a teeny bit out of sync with the latest alternative reality. Of course there are lots of different Jewish communities!! But they are not all of a common mind, which you, or anybody else for that matter, has some special insight into. Take for example the ten thousand ultra-orthodox Jews of Stamford Hill, whose rabbis issued special notices dissociating themselves from attacks on Corbyn. I am suggesting that to treat all Jews as a ‘singularity’ is antisemitic.
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Post by eor on Jan 17, 2024 3:01:49 GMT
New Hampshire is next and on the Democrat side it continues to be utter nonsense. Biden is boycotting the primary on the basis that it violates his human rights for it to be held before South Carolina has been allowed to rigorously vote for him, but New Hampshire State law insists their officials must schedule first, so as with Iowa the compromise is that they will vote first but without it counting for anything.
However, his many supporters may complicate things further by insisting on doing a write-in; as in many US states it's considered valid if you use the New Hampshire ballot paper to make a clear determination for a specific candidate even if they aren't listed as an official choice. Write-in candidates have sometimes won election even at a federal level, pretty sure that's how one of the current Senators for Alaska got there.
So inverting the normal risk of embarrassing himself, in this case the President may well actually win a primary he's refusing to take part in.
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Post by eor on Jan 17, 2024 4:55:31 GMT
On the Republican side for New Hampshire... the polling is rather more competitive than it was in Iowa, and specifically Trump's refusal to take part in the Republican debates will count against him. And yes, it's absolutely true that a surprisingly close finish, or even a shock defeat for him could have profound implications on in the wider race. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/new-hampshire/Chris Christie dropping out will likely funnel some extra support to either Haley or DeSantis, tho Ramaswamay dropping out will likely offset that a bit - he had less support than Christie here but his supporters were rather more likely to break for Trump than to just stay home. At the same time, the polls are reasonably consistent so far - ARG think the race is very close between Trump and Haley whilst most others give Trump a big lead. That doesn't mean ARG are wrong obviously, this could be the making of their reputation. But it is a matter of fact that they have consistently returned figures over the last few weeks that have been radically better for Haley whilst the other pollsters have continued to shown large Trump leads. And both can't be right.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 17, 2024 6:24:54 GMT
jib The traitor did worse than polls predicted I know we tend to look at different aggregators steve but my reaction to the results was that it was a massive win for the pollsters, practically French levels of accuracy. 538 and RCP had Trump on 52.5% and 52.7% and he got 51%. Likewise they had Haley bang on and Ramaswamay within a percent or so as well. They only missed on DeSantis who was predicted 15-16% and got a shade over 21%. For a contest as odd as Iowa and with no prior results to calibrate polls against that's an outstanding polling performace! Thanks for that, the other notable thing was the very low turn out due to weather. Not sure if this helped Trump or not as many of his supporters are evangelistic in their support and so more likely to brave the elements?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 17, 2024 6:29:54 GMT
True, but even if rates do drop, many people coming off fixed rate mortgages, (I think I read c100k per month), will still be facing much higher monthly repayments than they are currently paying when they re-fix, as their previous fixes a couple of years or so ago will have been at much lower rates. A point I heard made was that interest rates are now seen to have peaked. Even if they dont go down, they wont be going up again and so people who can afford a loan at current rates have confidence to enter the market and buy homes. This has a knock on for confidence you can trade houses again and reduces pressure pushing down prices, so again there is confidence even if you are paying more for the mortgage, in the long run you will still show a profit on final value. This all begs the question that house prices are too high, and reducing them has to be a long term goal to restore the UK economy (they are in effect a privatised tax on the cost of labour). Which problem will remain in the in-tray of the next government.
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