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Post by alec on Jan 16, 2024 13:17:01 GMT
pete - "Scary!" Yes, I think it is. In conversation with people suffering long covid, the most refrain is that 'no one wants to know'. May describe the mounting horror when they start to realise that the NHS effectively dumps them, that there are no clear treatments and where there are treatments that can help with specific symptoms, the NHS routinely refuses to provide them. I keep saying this, but the numbers are staggering. We had a broadly flat number unable to work due to long term sickness up to 2020, and then it exploded, with 1.5% of the workforce joining the ranks of the unemployable since then. NHS waiting lists were rising by 200,000 a year from 2010 - 2020, and since then they have risen by 1.1m a year, over 5 times faster. There is no sign that any of these metrics are slowing down either. Governments and health systems in other countries are showing signs of a growing awareness of these issues, with the German Health Ministry from one really being pretty open about the major economic impacts coming from Long Covid. But in the UK, we seem to be determined to evade any concerns by masking the data. The NHS' standard approach is to not run the tests; if you don't look for something, you won't find it. Worse, they then have the audacity to tell patients that there's nothing wrong with them, it's all in the mind and to erroneously recommend the discredited 'graded exercise' therapy. (This is proven to make Long Covid worse - disastrously so in many cases. It's a horror that the NHS is still backing this). Labour seem as bad as Tories on this, but I remain hopeful that the steps being taken in other countries will gradually filter through to the UK, although the extent of the damage being inflicted on people in the meantime will be telling.
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Post by leftieliberal on Jan 16, 2024 13:25:39 GMT
From my experience a rural upbringing does not necessarily correspond with an understanding of what's best for the environment. I'm reading 'Wild Fell' by Lee Schofield at the moment. He works for the RSPB in Cumbria, where they own a couple of hill farms, so part of his role is trying to reconcile upland sheep farming with conservation. If you have any knowledge of the uplands or interest in ecology it's fascinating. It's very readable and free of the purple prose and over-elaborate descriptions that put me off a lot of 'nature writing'. When I've finished it I might do a proper recommendation for the Book Club thread. You might like to try Raynor Winn's The Wild Silence, her second book, and what she says about how she and her husband Moth restored a derelict Cornish farm and brought back nature to it. She does have a liking for purple prose, but once you get past that it's well-worth reading. Also Isabella Tree's books.
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Post by robbiealive on Jan 16, 2024 13:34:36 GMT
If not a sell-out, desperately poor politics. There you go again, deriding games of soldiers. Why do people do this, I wonder? The dismissal usually involves contemptuous expletives too. My brother and I, when we were kids, used to while away many a happy hour playing games of soldiers. His British Paratroopers usually routing my Nazi Stormtroopers too. A sort of morality tale in many ways, although my Red Indian savages quite often held sway against his British Redcoats. I played endless games of soldiers with my older brother. I liked best being General Robert E Lee. As Orwell said, small boys not keen on "playing with little toy pacifists". I was brought up in the military & spent my childhood/youth on a succession of army bases in UK & abroad: a great environment. I broke my foot on an army assult course. Of course we should not have been there but there was no security then & we roamed all over.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 16, 2024 13:40:08 GMT
Temper, temper, where's the popcorn 🍿
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2024 13:50:34 GMT
"And its currently facing street demos and collapsing support" - There are demos by farmers about reduced subsidies mainly (boo hoo) but governments do become unpopular, I don't think any system of voting can mitigate that or provide an immediate solution when they do! I think you'd agree this government is facing just a wee bit of collapsing support. Not long now though. In Germany they also get to vote for governments at Land level as well of course which probably increases the sense of representation. Of course there is also the usual ossi whining but they tend to be far right orchestrated and are largely limited to the eastern states. As I've said before I don't think unification should have happened, or at least when it did and the easterners should have been made to take responsibility for themselves like other eastern block states did. Yes-its easy to dismiss the farmers. Always moaning, Featherbedded. Small GDP sector. But try increasing exposure to food import security just now. And it was the farmers really which brouight the Dutch Government down,. Anyway there are lorry drivers and others on the streets over there. I would be careful about waving a dismissive hand oveer it all. Bloomberg reckon its all about wealth inequality :- www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-15/why-germany-is-rich-but-germans-are-poor-and-angry?leadSource=uverify%20wallCant comment on your oft repeated dislike of re-unification. It seems an odd frame of mind for an eu enthusiast.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2024 13:52:34 GMT
The regime has decided to spend ÂŁ8:million of our money so that pictures of Padishah emperor Shaddam Corrino IV. can be displayed in all public buildings. Fortunate indeed that there's no competing demands for public funds. View AttachmentMonarchy. Now the opium of the people, not religion, in some countries. I was staggered by the scenes in Denmark recently where vast crowds of seemingly rational, sensible and intelligent people gathered in cold weather to wave adoringly at some inoffensive young man in fancy dress standing on a balcony and waving back at them. Bonkers, but useful for politicians I suppose. Distraction, diverted public attention and fantasy feelgood. What's not to like if you want to keep your head down for a bit. Hey, folks, look over there. Ta. What a patronising attitude to a small countries love of its identity as characterised by its monarchy.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2024 13:57:55 GMT
colin My argument for the benefits of a representative voting system are much more about the health of democracy than the guarantee of good governance. The former concentrates on how a vibrant democracy should have a system of voting where every vote casts counts and where the resulting elected assembly is a proportionate reflection of how people voted. It seems to me that if you have a voting system that denies both those essentials, like ours does, then you don't really have a properly functioning democracy at all. A sort of in name only democracy where governments have large majorities based on a minority of the votes cast. Your argument seems to skate over that and concentrate on the latter; it doesn't guarantee good governance. Well, of course it doesn't, and never will, albeit the historical economic performance of these countries that have representative voting systems(nearly all of them have in Europe) might suggest otherwise, but effective governance depends on a whole host of factors. The quality of leadership (agree with you on the poverty of that worldwide right now), global events, particular national issues, historical circumstance etc. You never know, Scholz might argue that most of his problems were inherited from Merkel's long period in government. Not sure he'd get away with blaming the German voting system though. I dont get it really. How can you complain about "governments (which) have large majorities based on a minority of the votes cast." whilst calling a system " representative" in which the senior coalition member got 26% of the popular vote and its two partners are vastly over represented popular vote minorities ?
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Post by jimjam on Jan 16, 2024 14:02:16 GMT
James - thanks for your reply; I think it may just be a terminology thing with me.
Patrick English put what I was trying to say better in comments posted a few pages back as it was THIS MRP doing this.
''This MRP model also probabilistically works out where the “missing” VIs from the sample data (ie, the “Don’t Knows”) will go, using information about similar *types* of voters who *do* have a VI.
That means a boost for the Tories, as most DKs now “look like” Tory voters.''
So not a DK split directly based on how those giving VI break but a split based on demographics and other factors (which may well include past voting) which will approximate to the Opinium adjustment but not be the same.
Re the Kellner Grumblers thing, where I think it has some validity is that intuitively the 'recovered' DKs will not be linear.
So, notwithstanding churn, those that have been DK for sometime are by definition less attracted to the current Tory Party.
When the lead has extended, on occasions, this has typically been when more Tory 2019 voters say DK as a reaction to a specific occurrence; way back this was Cummings, then Partygate etc.
These newer DKs imo will be more likely to switch back to Tory as their move away is less solid.
We know this already as the larger the lead the bigger the gap to Opinium and a couple of others.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2024 14:10:24 GMT
James - thanks for your reply; I think it may just be a terminology thing with me. Patrick English put what I was trying to say better in comments posted a few pages back as it was THIS MRP doing this. ''This MRP model also probabilistically works out where the “missing” VIs from the sample data (ie, the “Don’t Knows”) will go, using information about similar *types* of voters who *do* have a VI. That means a boost for the Tories, as most DKs now “look like” Tory voters.'' So not a DK split directly based on how those giving VI break but a split based on demographics and other factors (which may well include past voting) which will approximate to the Opinium adjustment but not be the same. Re the Kellner Grumblers thing, intuitively where I think it has some validity is that intuitively the 'recovered' DKs will not be linear. So, notwithstanding churn, those that have been DK for sometime are by definition less attracted to the current Tory Party. When the lead has extended, on occasions, this has typically been when more Tory 2019 voters say DK as a reaction to a specific occurrence; way back this was Cummings, then Partygate etc. These newer DKs imo will be more likely to switch back to Tory as their move away is less solid. We know this already as the larger the lead the bigger the gap to Opinium and a couple of others. So what do you think a November GE result will look like jimjam ?. Gut feel right now ?
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 16, 2024 14:10:53 GMT
Delusional
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Post by alec on Jan 16, 2024 14:18:39 GMT
YouGov busy disowning and dismantling the false claims made by Frost and others on that MRP poll in the Telegraph -
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Post by Danny on Jan 16, 2024 14:23:41 GMT
pete - "Scary!" Yes, I think it is. In conversation with people suffering long covid, the most refrain is that 'no one wants to know'. May describe the mounting horror when they start to realise that the NHS effectively dumps them, that there are no clear treatments and where there are treatments that can help with specific symptoms, the NHS routinely refuses to provide them. Your problem Alec is you simply cannot see the wood for the trees. Covid has constantly been exaggerated in its effects. and you delight in continuing this. Its just one of many many diseases and not at all the most concerning for the NHS to deal with. It would be a scandal if the NHS prioritised covid. The bottom line is the NHS does not have nearly enough money, staff or equipment to treat every illness which could be treated. Conservatives have allowed funding to fall compared to rising demand from growing numbers of pensioners. The previous labour government was raising it ahead of demand. It remains to be seen what will happen if labour resume government, but there will not be a sudden leap in funding the day they take over. They will pick their own funding level which they are happy with, where slightly fewer people are refused treatment and left to die, or rationed it by having to wait. Bleating on about covid is absurd. Its a minor problem now, and was always exaggerated, with the terrible mistake of using lockdowns which failed to reduce deaths but cost a king's ransom. You need to get past this, because the problem to be addressed is how much the nation chooses to spend on health, and how many people it therefore leaves to die untreated. What is your answer to this, the real question? My goodness, you come to that revelation late too. You will recall how in March 2020 there was hardly any testing for covid, and it was said there was hardly any covid? Like there was zero testing for covid in Hastings winter 19/20, and thus there could not have been any covid? Do you now accept the absence of testing could mean half the Hastings population had covid, and in 2020, 30 milion people caught covid despite what was done? That when the government experts said there was hardly any covid in the Uk, but it was rising fast, all they were really measuring was that their own testing was rising fast, uncovering the huge wave of covid already in the UK? That the whole series of events was an utter disaster because it reached the Uk in 2019, was spreading merrily unnoticed, and then had a huge surge...which however was already peaking by the time they took any action!
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Post by jimjam on Jan 16, 2024 14:37:46 GMT
Colin
Lab 39 Con 33 LD 12 Ref 5 GRN 5 SNP/PC 4 NI 1 Others 1
Lab majority 30-50
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 16, 2024 14:48:25 GMT
These newer DKs imo will be more likely to switch back to Tory as their move away is less solid. Well yes, they are dont knows, undecided. However, between now and the election events will influence them, and it may be those events will in fact propel them further towards a vote against con. Another possibility is we dont really know exactly what they are undecided about. They could be certain they will not vote con, but unclear what to do instead. In 1997 libs did especially well, and it could be exactly for this factor, ex cons had already decided they would not vote con again, and in the end voted lib because they could not go back to con. Which of course, they did do come 2015 after libs had re-branded as tory light.
The high number of tory dont knows could pressage a late surge to libs again.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 16, 2024 14:53:31 GMT
It may indeed be delusional but then you are not going to get a campaign coordinator for a major party publicly (and it is public since it has been deliberately leaked to a friendly journalist) say "Its all over for us Prime Minister; we're doomed, doomed I tell ye!" Whatever they actually think, they are contractually obliged to sound upbeat.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2024 15:02:37 GMT
Colin Lab 39 Con 33 LD 12 Ref 5 GRN 5 SNP/PC 4 NI 1 Others 1 Lab majority 30-50 Thanks jimjam That really surprises me. And I'm not sure whether that would be good for the Conservative Party's future honestly.I think they need a bigger kick up the arse than that ! But I think a Starmer administration with that sort of majority would be interesting.
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Post by domjg on Jan 16, 2024 15:11:00 GMT
Colin Lab 39 Con 33 LD 12 Ref 5 GRN 5 SNP/PC 4 NI 1 Others 1 Lab majority 30-50 Thanks jimjam That really surprises me. And I'm not sure whether that would be good for the Conservative Party's future honestly.I think they need a bigger kick up the arse than that ! But I think a Starmer administration with that sort of majority would be interesting. It feels a bit counter-intuitive to me even thinking it but the smaller the tories end up being after the election the more extreme they'll be likely to be in opposition even if only due to lack of experienced personnel and for the long term sake of our democracy and all our well being I really don't want to see them go down the same rabbit hole as the US republicans so maybe that result wouldn't actually be too terrible.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2024 15:12:32 GMT
Thanks jimjam That really surprises me. And I'm not sure whether that would be good for the Conservative Party's future honestly.I think they need a bigger kick up the arse than that ! But I think a Starmer administration with that sort of majority would be interesting. It feels a bit counter-intuitive to me even thinking it but the smaller the tories end up being after the election the more extreme they'll be likely to be in opposition even if only due to lack of experienced personnel and for the long term sake of our democracy and all our well being I really don't want to see them go down the same rabbit hole as the US republicans so maybe that wouldn't actually be too terrible. Thats a good point. Perhaps a better way to look at it.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 16, 2024 15:12:40 GMT
colin My argument for the benefits of a representative voting system are much more about the health of democracy than the guarantee of good governance. The former concentrates on how a vibrant democracy should have a system of voting where every vote casts counts and where the resulting elected assembly is a proportionate reflection of how people voted. It seems to me that if you have a voting system that denies both those essentials, like ours does, then you don't really have a properly functioning democracy at all. A sort of in name only democracy where governments have large majorities based on a minority of the votes cast. Your argument seems to skate over that and concentrate on the latter; it doesn't guarantee good governance. Well, of course it doesn't, and never will, albeit the historical economic performance of these countries that have representative voting systems(nearly all of them have in Europe) might suggest otherwise, but effective governance depends on a whole host of factors. The quality of leadership (agree with you on the poverty of that worldwide right now), global events, particular national issues, historical circumstance etc. You never know, Scholz might argue that most of his problems were inherited from Merkel's long period in government. Not sure he'd get away with blaming the German voting system though. I dont get it really. How can you complain about "governments (which) have large majorities based on a minority of the votes cast." whilst calling a system " representative" in which the senior coalition member got 26% of the popular vote and its two partners are vastly over represented popular vote minorities ? I know you don't get it, that's abundantly clear, but I think you may be making this a more difficult argument than it really is. Either that, or I'm prosecuting it very badly, which is very possible. I'll have another go. Representative voting systems and their electorates rarely, if ever, reward one party with over 50% of the vote and, thereby, a majority of representatives in the assembly. In fact it's very rare, such are normally the multiplicity of political parties contesting elections in such a system, for the largest party to get much more than 30% of the vote. Coalitions are therefore more or less inevitable and the largest party will seek politically compatible parties to help them form a majority government. Some of those smaller parties will have won very small vote shares too, although their numbers in the assembly will reflect that vote share accurately. What you don't get is a party getting 20% of the votes cast and only 8% of the seats or a party getting 38% of the vote and 55% of the seats, thereby being in a position to form a majority one-party government on the basis of a minority vote. Quite often, that 38% vote share, if you take out the many millions of non-voters and unregistered ones, represents less than a quarter of the adult population. The 2015 General Election, described by the Electoral Reform Society as producing the most disproportionate result in British electoral history is both informative and deeply shocking if you value representative democracy. www.electoral-reform.org.uk/a-system-in-crisis/I fear you're allowing your fears that you may never get a Big Tent Tory majority government ever again to cloud your better judgement on this matter.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2024 15:17:38 GMT
I fear you're allowing your fears that you may never get a Big Tent Tory majority government ever again to cloud your better judgement on this matter. You don't give up do you ! End of methinks
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 16, 2024 15:18:54 GMT
Colin Lab 39 Con 33 LD 12 Ref 5 GRN 5 SNP/PC 4 NI 1 Others 1 Lab majority 30-50 For ever the optimist, I'm going to tweak your figures and go for Lab 40 and Tory 32, ramping the overall Labour majority up to the 50-60 range. 8% winning margin, not 6%, but it won't be the 18% margin indicated by the opinion polls now.
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Post by mercian on Jan 16, 2024 15:38:34 GMT
mercian "Some people might. Also Nigel isn't directly involved. Note that I just said that I could see why these policies would have appeal to some (many?) voters" Yes of course Reforms policies that include taking every one out of paying income tax on under ÂŁ20,000 per year, taking millions of companies out of paying corporation tax, scrapping inheritance tax will have support by some But most will look at it and say it's nonsense, with record debt levels it's a non starter But they compound it with at the same time as reducing the tax take by ÂŁ100 billion plus they intend for the Government to buy 50% the energy and water companies. On top of that they are going to give billions on private health providers to undertake operations for the NHS. mercian I don't agree with a lot of your politics, but surely you can see these huge spending commitments whilst at the same tome big cuts in taxation would make the Truss budget look sensible. Like it or not the money markets would crucify the UK I didn't say I agreed with them all (or indeed any), though of course I'd like to stop paying tax. I was simply showing some of their policies and saying that they would have appeal to some voters and hence the relatively strong showing in the polls. At least they have policies, unlike some.
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Post by alec on Jan 16, 2024 16:00:34 GMT
Danny - over on the Covid thread a couple of days ago you said "The sad truth is that those in the Uk who had most corona virus infections beforre covid, had fewest deaths during the epidemic." I asked you for the data upon which you based that statement, and posted three published papers that showed the exact opposite. I'm still waiting for you to show the evidence, and if you can't show it, I'll have to conclude that you haven't got any and just made it up, like most of your evidence free posts on the topic. So I suggest that rather than try to engage with me on the main thread, where everyone asks you not to, you just go away and shut the fuck up. I will demonstrate how incorrect your assumptions are on the Covid thread, with evidence, but I'm not getting into any discussion with anyone here who just makes up any old shit.
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Post by mercian on Jan 16, 2024 16:04:15 GMT
And we still have one poster telling us that local government by election results are far more significant guides to the state of public opinion than national opinion polls, annual nationwide local government results, devolved assembly results and parliamentary by elections. If that's aimed at me, it misrepresents me. I simply note that the generally poor showing of Labour in local by-elections indicates lukewarm support. Although many people are fed up with the Tories a lot of them are less than enthused by Labour. It's a very different feel to 1997 or even 2017 with Corbynmania. That's not to say the result will be much different to 1997 however. Even if Labour get a landslide they should be wary of getting carried away. My instinct is that a big win will be because of a collapse of the Tory vote rather than a massive increase in Labour's.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2024 16:07:20 GMT
I fear you're allowing your fears that you may never get a Big Tent Tory majority government ever again to cloud your better judgement on this matter. You don't give up do you ! End of methinks I note you chose not to address Batty’s substantive points which I think is a shame.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2024 16:18:11 GMT
You don't give up do you ! End of methinks I note you chose not to address Batty’s substantive points which I think is a shame. It wasn't a question. No point to someone who makes assumptions like that. Its all about teams and sides for him and he cant imagine it not being. Takes all sorts.
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Post by mercian on Jan 16, 2024 16:23:04 GMT
As for Mercian's take on local government results, I don't think that's flaming, I think he's clinging onto something, anything that will give him hope for the GE. Basically I think one of them posts this stuff in good faith and the other in bad faith. Just for the record, I don't particularly want the Tories to win, indeed I think their time is up. However like other posters I don't think a massive Labour majority would be particularly healthy, and the poor performance in locals seems to indicate that there might not be one.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2024 16:39:21 GMT
You don't give up do you ! End of methinks I note you chose not to address Batty’s substantive points which I think is a shame. Yeah, I can see that that could be irritating, although he did make a lot of relevant points before. My own view - which I share with him and others - is that FPTP discourages participation in elections because there are so many constituencies where the result is predetermined so “what’s the point”. Similarly having a single party government controlling everything, despite receiving nowhere near 50% of the vote, never mind a majority and never mind the total electorate, is inherently unfair and wrong. As witnessed with brexit it rarely allows for sensible compromises and although other systems may also have flaws I don’t think they outweigh this fundamental flaw in FPTP. Paul
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 16, 2024 16:39:53 GMT
I note you chose not to address Batty’s substantive points which I think is a shame. It wasn't a question. No point to someone who makes assumptions like that. Its all about teams and sides for him and he cant imagine it not being. Takes all sorts. There isn't an emoji to do justice this, I am afraid.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 16, 2024 16:53:55 GMT
As for Mercian's take on local government results, I don't think that's flaming, I think he's clinging onto something, anything that will give him hope for the GE. Basically I think one of them posts this stuff in good faith and the other in bad faith. Just for the record, I don't particularly want the Tories to win, indeed I think their time is up. However like other posters I don't think a massive Labour majority would be particularly healthy, and the poor performance in locals seems to indicate that there might not be one. "the poor performance in locals". In the May 2023 local elections Labour increased its vote share by 7% compared to 2019, gained 537 councillors to become the largest party in local government for the first time since 2002, gained 22 councils to take its total to 71 (more than the Conservatives, Lib Dems and Greens combined) and led the Conservatives in the popular vote by 9%. Next! en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_electionsen.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections
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