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Post by peterbell on Jan 11, 2024 19:33:10 GMT
Speaker Hoyle summoned to Downing St for 20.10. Obviously to be an announcement in parliament tomorrow.
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Post by peterbell on Jan 11, 2024 19:35:31 GMT
Pentagon to hold a News Conf imminently
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jan 11, 2024 19:42:45 GMT
Is that what we can expect from the tories attempts to improve their electoral chances, a few macho hits on lightly armed, impoverished tribesmen? Try taking on the big boy in the Kremlin? Oh no. Pathetic.
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Post by peterbell on Jan 11, 2024 20:01:04 GMT
Pentagon News Conf was to explain that Defence Sec Llyod Austin went AWOL over the Christmas Period. Evidently he was in hospital re prostate cancer but no one had thought to tell Biden or anyone else in authority. It not as though defence is unimportant at the moment.
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graham
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Post by graham on Jan 11, 2024 20:31:15 GMT
That would imply Dissolution on 10th October with the election announcement a few days earlier. That sounds too early to include an Autumn Statement - indeed parliament will barely have returned from the recess held for party conferences. I am not really convinced about the date. It might well suit Sunak to avoid all the conferences by having a Dissolution in September for an election held in October.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 11, 2024 20:31:24 GMT
More In Common
š¹Labour 42% (-) š³Conservatives 27% (-1) š¶Liberal Democrats 10% (-1) š£Reform UK 9% (+1) šGreens 8% (+2) Labour lead of 15 Field work 9/1-11/1
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Post by James E on Jan 11, 2024 20:38:51 GMT
More In Common š¹Labour 42% (-) š³Conservatives 27% (-1) š¶Liberal Democrats 10% (-1) š£Reform UK 9% (+1) šGreens 8% (+2) Labour lead of 15 Field work 9/1-11/1 That's right in line with the norm for MiC, whose previous 12 polls, dating back to April, have averaged a 14-15 point Labour lead. They are another company who re-weight their figures in a similar manner to Opinium.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 11, 2024 20:50:01 GMT
Interesting that cost of living is still the biggest issue for most people Immigration on the other hand is a distance fourth
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Post by jimjam on Jan 11, 2024 20:56:25 GMT
James can you clarify some thing please re
" I would expect the Tories to recover around one-third of the RefUK VI and up to half of their 2019 voters who 'Don't Know'* which would give them a boost of 6 points and cut the Labour lead from around 18 to around 12."
If net half of Tory voters who say DK return to them which is 5.5% of votes cast in 2019 the turnout will be higher than the notional turnout Labours' current average VI is based on.
This will mean, therefore, a 2% or so drop in Labours vote share - compensated a little by Labour 2019 to DK returnees but still over 1.5% extra gap closing for the Tories.
So the lead would be reduced to nearer 10% than 12%.
I am probably missing something though!
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Post by James E on Jan 11, 2024 21:31:34 GMT
@jimjam
Looking at this in more detail, I can see that the adjustments could be somewhat bigger than my rough estimate.
I am allowing for Labour's DKs to return to them as well as the Tories'. So taking the most recent YouGov, the calculations are:
Con 26% DKs x 45% 2019vote /2 = 5.85 Lab 9% DKs x 33% 2019vote /2 = 1.5 So the net difference there is 4.35 points** , not 3.
And with Reform UK on 9 points per YouGov, an adjustment of one-third to the Tories gives them another 3 points.
Of course the figures would then need to be re-based to percentages. And it is normal for the Green vote to be squeezed a bit towards an actual election, so if you factor in 1 point going to Labour for that, we get back to my rough estimate of the Tories closing Labour's lead by about 6 points.
**This is rather less than the 6-7 points difference that Opinium's methodology makes. And of course, such an adjustment should not be applied to polling figures from Opinium or MIC, whose headline figures already include their own, larger adjustment for the 'Don't Knows'.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2024 21:41:33 GMT
Starmer and Hoyle briefed at No.10.
Looking serious
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jan 11, 2024 22:05:11 GMT
Starmer and Hoyle briefed at No.10. Looking serious yes both of them look more serious than Sunak.
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Post by mercian on Jan 11, 2024 22:42:55 GMT
Some fine names to enjoy as well - given the locals in Wellingborough will not longer be able to pick a Bone, their selection to choose from will include the rather utilitarian sounding Gen Kitchen for Labour (sponsorship opportunity for Ikea?) and, the presumably highly dangerous, Ana Savage Gunn for the Lib Dems. Meanwhile in Kingswood Mr Skidmore gently slides out of Westminster. I always thought Mark Reckless was a great name for a politician. He rather lived up to his name too when he quite the Tories to join UKIP in 2014, although he did hold his seat in the subsequent by election that year. However he then lost the seat shorty afterwards in the 2015 General Election. Maybe he then changed his name to Mark Regretful! He did have a seat in the Welsh Assembly for a while after that.
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Post by mercian on Jan 11, 2024 22:45:36 GMT
He also said that he just signed whatever the lawyers told him to sign. He seems to be a not very bright stooge who just did what he was told but enjoyed bullying sub-postmasters and postmistresses. "I was only following orders" didn't work out at Nuremberg. And of course he might just be trying to minimise his own agency in the matter and particularly why he didn't investigate further when there were so many similar cases.
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Post by mercian on Jan 11, 2024 22:56:35 GMT
In those less-enlightened days, I can remember commentators talking about Crooks "doing the spadework" in his partnership with Archibald. Yes, he wasn't much good at football punditry, but then the BBC would take anyone who had had a half-decent career as a player. That he was chairman of the PFA says something about his standing amongst his fellow professionals. Didn't old Garth, who I agree was a fine footballer with both Stoke and Spurs, as well as being a well respected Chairman of the PFA, once famously, as a pundit, talk at length about a preferred 4-4-3 formation before he had to be reminded that he'd got too many outfield players in his line up? This may be an apocryphal tale, but I want it to be true! Mind you, Robbie Savage's preview of a Premier League season a few years ago was a classic one, even by Robbie's standards as a pundit. He went through each team's prospects in some detail and, by the end, had condemned eight teams to certain relegation. One of which was the Villa by the way!! Savage is a bit thick and very excitable. He does a Radio 5 show with Chris Sutton who's more thoughtful and has a dry wit. Here's a sample of a recent conversation as well as I can remember it. Sutton: Do you think Villa are in the title race? Savage: No chance! Sutton: They're only 2 points behind. Not even 1% chance? Savage: Well yes. Sutton: So they do have a chance? Savage: Yes, I mean no Sutton: But you just said they had a chance Savage: You're an idiot! Let's have the next caller It can be quite amusing if you can put up with Savage talking over Sutton and most of the callers.
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Post by mercian on Jan 11, 2024 23:05:31 GMT
Is that what we can expect from the tories attempts to improve their electoral chances, a few macho hits on lightly armed, impoverished tribesmen? Try taking on the big boy in the Kremlin? Oh no. Pathetic. Hardly lightly-armed when they've got rockets that can take out a ship. Indeed they might have done so, hence the urgent meeting.
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Post by peterbell on Jan 11, 2024 23:53:39 GMT
Reuters reporting that there have been explosions in Yemen. Now saying that there have been attacks from aircraft, ships and submarine.
While the Houthiis can't be allowed to continue attacking shipping in the red Sea, this news is worrying re the likely escalation in the middle east. Assuming that UK has been involved, I am not happy that this was done without parliamentary agreement.
Evidently new reports that this is a major strike with several cities being targeted.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jan 11, 2024 23:59:35 GMT
Reuters reporting that there have been explosions in Yemen. Now saying that there have been attacks from aircraft, ships and submarine. While the Houthiis can't be allowed to continue attacking shipping in the red Sea, this news is worrying re the likely escalation in the middle east.Ā Assuming that UK has been involved, I am not happy that this was done without parliamentary agreement.Ā Evidently new reports that this is a major strike with several cities being targeted. Especially as this is just tory grandstanding. The US could easily have done this on their own.
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Post by mercian on Jan 12, 2024 0:21:19 GMT
Reuters reporting that there have been explosions in Yemen. Now saying that there have been attacks from aircraft, ships and submarine. While the Houthiis can't be allowed to continue attacking shipping in the red Sea, this news is worrying re the likely escalation in the middle east. Assuming that UK has been involved, I am not happy that this was done without parliamentary agreement. Evidently new reports that this is a major strike with several cities being targeted. Especially as this is just tory grandstanding. The US could easily have done this on their own. It's important that the West stays united. I heard a report that other nations are involved too. EDIT: Houthis saying the US and UK will pay a "heavy price". Brace yourselves for terrorist attacks. I wonder whether any will be by 'asylum seekers'?
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Post by eor on Jan 12, 2024 1:30:20 GMT
Reuters reporting that there have been explosions in Yemen. Now saying that there have been attacks from aircraft, ships and submarine. While the Houthiis can't be allowed to continue attacking shipping in the red Sea, this news is worrying re the likely escalation in the middle east. Assuming that UK has been involved, I am not happy that this was done without parliamentary agreement. Evidently new reports that this is a major strike with several cities being targeted. Especially as this is just tory grandstanding. The US could easily have done this on their own. If we're being cynical (who, us?!), the urgent need for the US to strike against some Obviously Bad People seems remarkably coincidental too, given the rather awkward media coverage there of Biden** not knowing his Secretary of State for Defense was in intensive care. At the same time having at least some international support is symbolically important for the US, and the UK has been happy to do that under Thatcher, Major and most notoriously Blair, so I can see why they picked up the phone to the beleaguered Sunak with some confidence. (** to be clear, this isn't another senile moment for Biden; the Defense Secretary and the Pentagon didn't tell the White House what was happening. But for a President with approval ratings in the 30s, not being told who's running the Defense Department this week is still a pretty big reinforcement that he's not really got a grip on things)
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 12, 2024 5:29:46 GMT
This stinks 'Fujitsuās chief lobbyist during the fallout from the Horizon scandal is also the co-founder of a leading right-wing pressure group of Tory MPs, i can reveal.
The extent of the tech firmās close ties to the Conservative Party raise further questions over itās success at winning government contracts while the sub-postmaster convictions fallout has unfolded.
Clark Vasey, who has been Fujitsu UKās head of corporate affairs since 2014, is the director and founder of the Blue Collar Conservatives group, which he set up with the now āminister for common senseā Esther McVey in 2012'
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 12, 2024 6:37:52 GMT
The failure of U.S.democracy ,despite overwhelming evidence that the traitor engaged in insurrection, where U.S. republican representatives were themselves the victims at his impeachment 80%+ of republican senators voted for his acquittal, they knew he was guilty , but they acquitted him anyway. It would be akin to a jury made up of those people who had been victims of burglary who knew who the burglar was , because he's sent them a video of him saying when he would be turning up to burgle their house and then blocking the police from attending during the burglary. Returning a not guilty vote because he was the captain of their golf club. It's absurd. None of the current absurdity and endangerment to democracy would be happening if they'd acted properly at the time. The traitor would just be a disgraced former politician being prosecuted for his numerous crimes both in and out of office. Instead we have lunatic statements and bomb threats to judges and lawyers and the real possibility of a U.S. Dictatorship. youtu.be/s9zfH4XDAsE?si=gFgcGHYOttZkxsjZ
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 12, 2024 6:55:38 GMT
From my reckoning 6 of the last 7 polls have shown an increased Labour lead and they are now similar for the average for the last year
The question is what will move them, if anything. I can't see a war/military operation in Yemen doing it
A big improvement in the economy and people's standard of living might (however unlikely), but even then I suspect it would just reduce Labourās majority
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 12, 2024 6:56:01 GMT
The political response to the Post Office scandal is a harbinger of things to come this year I fear. The Govts. haste in righting the wrong is a signal that they will latch on to any opportunity to be on the right side of public opinion, on this occasion at least an awful miscarriage of justice will be partially addressed even if the chosen method is questionable Lots of talking abot this, but its not at all clear government intends to right this wrong, just be seen to be acting. Government owns the post office branch network company. It has the power to immediately order PO to discontinue all prosecutions and defence of legal actions and itself call for those affected to be immediatley exhonerated and compensated. To simply admit publicly the prosecutions were not supported by evidence. Proper compensation would be in excess of a billion pounds, whereas they are currently talking about a few hundred million. This is still all about pushing the whole problem to after the next election, along with all the other unpaid bills this government has run up. Its also clear the total number of postmasters affected could be a lot higher than currently. We are only dealing with those formally targeted for big losses, whereas if the system was stealing money from them, it was probably also stealing money from all the others, but on a much smaller scale.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 12, 2024 6:58:29 GMT
He also said that he just signed whatever the lawyers told him to sign. He seems to be a not very bright stooge who just did what he was told but enjoyed bullying sub-postmasters and postmistresses. "I was only following orders" didn't work out at Nuremberg. But that was because the Germans had already lost the war. The post office is wholly backed by its owner, the british government.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 12, 2024 7:03:01 GMT
If the Tories took that view, it would make little sense to hold two by elections on 15th February. People seem to be believing that an early by election means no spring general election and a late one means an early by election. If that is so and government wants to keep the opposition guessing, then what they would do is call an early by election regardles when they think to call the general election.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jan 12, 2024 7:21:02 GMT
Especially as this is just tory grandstanding. The US could easily have done this on their own. It's important that the West stays united. I heard a report that other nations are involved too.Ā EDIT: Houthis saying the US and UK will pay a "heavy price". Brace yourselves for terrorist attacks. I wonder whether any will be by 'asylum seekers'? "It's important that the west stays united" - yes it is where it actually matters in Eastern Europe for example.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 12, 2024 7:22:58 GMT
neilj "From my reckoning 6 of the last 7 polls have shown an increased Labour lead and they are now similar for the average for the last year The question is what will move them, if anything. I can't see a war/military operation in Yemen doing it" The reason why Thatcher received a Falklands war bonus in 1983 is because no one could have envisaged long term cnd pacifist Michael Foot doing anything other than cave to the Argentinean dictatorships invasion. I'm not trying to address the merits of the war , just the perception. The difference now is short trousers big missiles Sunakered is perceived in a far different light than the wicked witch of Grantham. Equally or possibly more importantly no one would envisage Starmer as a reincarnation of Foot. There's no advantage to be gained if the opposition leader is calling me too.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 12, 2024 7:29:20 GMT
domjg If the houthis had stuck to trying to board cargo ships from speedboats armed with ak47'sand rpg's rather than using Iranian attack drones, missiles and helicopters, quite capable of sinking these vessels, I very much doubt this would have escalated. Just two days ago Houthi rebels launched an attack on commercial shipping and U.S. and UK naval vessels involving over 20 drones and missiles, they've brought the escalation on themselves. Simply saying it's targeted at Israel is disingenuous the targets of the attacks aren't Israeli they're international commercial ships and these attacks disrupt all movement irrespective of destinations. Free passage of commerce through the Red Sea is important to our interests and at the moment the response seems reasonably appropriate, of course that could change easily,you're entirely correct on Eastern Europe.
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Post by johntel on Jan 12, 2024 8:21:28 GMT
Reuters reporting that there have been explosions in Yemen. Now saying that there have been attacks from aircraft, ships and submarine. While the Houthiis can't be allowed to continue attacking shipping in the red Sea, this news is worrying re the likely escalation in the middle east. Assuming that UK has been involved, I am not happy that this was done without parliamentary agreement. Evidently new reports that this is a major strike with several cities being targeted. Especially as this is just tory grandstanding. The US could easily have done this on their own. Ten countries were involved in the strikes, according to a joint statement released by the White House from the governmentās of Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Republic of Korea, United Kingdom, and the United States saying they will ānot hesitate to defend lives and protect the free flow of commerce in one of the worldās most critical waterwaysā Speaking on BBC Radio 5 Live, Keir Starmer says given the scale of attacks on shipping, the warnings given and subsequent attacks, including one on a British naval vessel, he backs the action. (The Guardian). But I agree that the Tories will be happy that 'events' such as this will displace the bad news of the last few of years.
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