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Post by graham on Jan 5, 2024 20:23:15 GMT
Seems to be mainly the timing of the Conservatives party conference, with Sunak announcing the election on 2nd October. Incidentally, the Tories are back to going last as the Labour one is in September. Makes some sense, although Tory Party conferences have been disasters of late. Sunak may think they generate more trap doors than launch pads. On the other hand, what an opportunity for Labour to use theirs as a campaign launch. Not a premature victory rally a la Kinnock in Sheffield though. Lessons have probably be learned there. On the other hand, the Tory Conference will have been preceded by two weeks of Tory bashing at the Labour and LD Conferences. It might make more sense - as happened in 1959 and 1964 - for Sunak to get them all cancelled by calling the election in early September to be held on 17th or 24th October.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 5, 2024 20:34:20 GMT
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Post by graham on Jan 5, 2024 20:39:52 GMT
The seat was comfortably Labour-held 1992 - 2010 - indeedI would currently expect a bigger majority than suggested by the New Statesman figures.
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Post by jib on Jan 5, 2024 20:52:06 GMT
The seat was comfortably Labour-held 1992 - 2010 - indeedI would currently expect a bigger majority than suggested by the New Statesman figures. Indeed. A straight Labour - Tory showdown, if there is no May election then Sunak will want this (humiliation) over and done with ASAP.
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Post by mercian on Jan 5, 2024 21:38:16 GMT
1. Even Steve would agree that the coalition was a mistake: a decision opposed however by only, was it 3 of their MPs, from which they never recovered. But Cameron would never have agreed to PR. If anyone scuppered that over time it was Blair not Clegg? And did the Coalition really lead directly to Brexit. Labour didn't do too well either in 2015 in preventing the Tory majority that allowed Brexit: though obviously the massive loss of Lib-Dem seats didn't help! It was the collapse of the lib dems which led to the conservative win in 2015, many seemed to have expected the result would be another coalition. But lib voters did not vote lib to get con, and so libs destroyed their own credibility. However, con also boosted their pull to UKIP voters by promising the referendum, whereas before they had only promised to be tough in opposing EU influence creep. If in 2010 libs had remained independent, its hard to know what might have happened. if they had voted issue by issue and therefore eg opposed tuition fee expansion, all the other issues where they simply went native and became con scapegoats, then they could have ended up in 2015 with more MPs not less. Although contrariwise, its also possible we had another election in 2010 or 11 after con were unable to govern as they wished. If they then got a majority it might have led to history playing out much as it did. But alternatively, we might have seen a labour recovery and the mirror of labour limping along with lib support. So if there was no coalition we might still have ended with brexit, but its also true we might have avoided that mistake.
Whats clear is that the coalition was a bad choice for libs if they wanted to grow their number of MPs. Gave clegg a bit of fun though.
All of those scenarios will have happened in parallel universes, however we can take comfort in the fact that everything is for the best in this the best of all possible worlds.
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Post by mercian on Jan 5, 2024 21:57:16 GMT
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Post by mercian on Jan 5, 2024 21:59:39 GMT
@fecklessmiser - I'm pondering taking the big step of blocking Danny, as he's just getting dafter and dafter, but I don't like blocking in principle, and there is also I believe, a danger in letting false statements stand unchallenged. I am posting factual information on an issue that does have some increasing salience at present, whereas Danny is posting made up shite. Maybe someone could set up a 'Made Up Shite' thread? There's already a Covid thread you could use.
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Post by jib on Jan 5, 2024 23:39:24 GMT
Daily Express ...yes I know...reports "Ed Davey's credibility 'hanging by thread' with MPs furious at role in Post Office scandal EXCLUSIVE: Sir Ed Davey has been attacked for his role in a major cover-up over the Post Office scandal which saw hundreds of people wrongly sent to prison."
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Post by jib on Jan 5, 2024 23:57:29 GMT
Here we go. I have full faith in the Metropolitan Police and I hope it's a thorough job.
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Post by jib on Jan 6, 2024 0:15:51 GMT
48 hours max for Ed I'd say. Where's Layla?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2024 0:16:22 GMT
jib“ I have full faith in the Metropolitan Police. “ I’m sure they will be overjoyed by that hugely significant announcement.
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Post by jib on Jan 6, 2024 0:20:33 GMT
jib “ I have full faith in the Metropolitan Police. “ I’m sure they will be overjoyed by that hugely significant announcement. Thanks. That really means something to me coming from you.
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Post by eor on Jan 6, 2024 1:54:47 GMT
Meanwhile, across the pond...
The US Supreme Court have confirmed they will hear appeals against the Colorado judgement to remove Trump from the Republican Primary ballot. Oral arguments will be heard in a month's time and it's anyone's guess how long a judgement will take to come down thereafter, or critically what the scope of it will be. There is any number of angles they could choose to settle on, from simply kicking it out because "a State can't tell a political party who they can nominate as a Primary candidate, it's an internal matter" all the way through to declaring Trump invalid as a candidate for President as an insurrectionist. In between there are loads of possibilities including that States *can* ban candidates from Primary elections (with no comment on the general election, or with an implication they can or cannot ban them from that too), that the 14th Amendment does or doesn't cover the Presidency itself, whether the 14th Amendment does or doesn't require a conviction for insurrection rather than a State or a Court's interpretation of someone's behaviour... and almost all of these have already been the basis for sustaining or rejecting 14th Amendment cases in state courts, so who knows.
Two things from this - firstly it's clear that any judgement at all will be handed down well after the Primary election results have started (Iowa is a week Monday, and New Hampshire on Tuesday 23rd Jan), and quite plausibly might not happen until after Super Tuesday (March 5th) by which point half of the States will have voted in their Republican primaries. And secondly there's a very good chance that any ruling leaves open the question of whether States can ban a candidate from the general election ballot - the Supreme Court doesn't have much precedent for embracing a constitutionally contentious question they're not being explicitly asked, and the Colorado case is purely about the Primary election.
So the media presumption that the Supreme Court will provide a definitive ruling that settles this could be a very long way from reality.
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Post by eor on Jan 6, 2024 2:56:45 GMT
In the US polling... very little going on over Christmas, but one poll that is definitely going to get some attention is one in New Hampshire showing Nikki Haley within 4 points of Trump there. It's a fairly small sample, it's from a pollster with a relatively poor track record (C+ average from FiveThirtyEight which is pretty weak), and it's basically a repeat of one they did there the week before Christmas that was an outlier by miles compared to others in the same period. [it's the one from American Research Group but every link I can find is blocked] None of that will stop it getting airtime tho, and without other new polls to contradict it for a few days it's at least a stone thrown into the pond. And you can guarantee that Haley's people will be getting it in front of every potential donor and voter that they can. So it might well turn out to have been a rogue poll but that doesn't mean it can't have significant influence. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/new-hampshire/www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/republican-primary/2024/iowa-caucusTrump is very likely to win in Iowa, and he's so far ahead in the polls there that even if he significantly underperforms he's still likely to have a comfortable margin. In New Hampshire though, a surprisingly small win or even a shock loss are a lot more possible, and would potentially have a lot more impact on the race, and this poll will chime with those who want to believe the rest of the polls are either wrong or changing.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 6, 2024 6:50:16 GMT
Just as a matter of fact regarding Ed Davey and Horizons while Davey on misleading advice from the post office did decline to meet Bates initially Records show he did meet Alan Bates, in October 2010.
A Lib Dem spokesperson said: "Ed bitterly regrets that the Post Office was not honest with him at the time."
Along with all other government ministers of all parties between 1999 and now the degree of enthusiasm in investigating fraud perpetuated by the post office was inadequate. The reason why one minister with relevant authority for around 18 months between 2010 and 2012 is being singled out by Tory enabling twitters a nd Tory client media who happens to be the current leader of the liberal democrats is obvious. Of course the minister with direct responsibility for fraud and miscarriages of justice would be the home Secretary,a post held by former Tory prime minister Theresa May from 2010 until 2016, oddly enough her inaction has passed without comment.
This appears objectively to be akin to the Keir Starmer " currygate " non story.
The real concern in relation to Davey and others is was the post office routinely lying to government ministers and why hadn't their power to unilaterally prosecute without police investigation been addressed long before 2010.
Incidentally if for whatever reason Ed Davey did stand down as party leader, pending an election the leader would be Daisy Cooper. Before becoming an MP in 2019 Daisy worked for the Hacked Off campaign for victims of press abuse, the Tory client media would love her!
Regarding Herbert Smith Freehills Davey did do Ten Hours of very well paid advisory work for them between 2017 and 2020. This was and is an international legal firm dating back over 100 years working with major companies in 17 countries and employs around 5000 lawyers and associated staff. Royal mail was one of hundreds of corporate clients, the company is most active in Asia and Australia. Unlike most Tory ministers Davey isn't an exceptionally wealthy man as I understand it used his additional income to assist in the care for his profoundly disabled son.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 6, 2024 7:29:00 GMT
Interesting take from Harvard law professor in the likely results of the Traitor's appeals to the US supreme court. I think he's right the far right dominated court will look for an off ramp on the exclusion from the Ballot case , adopting the approach that while the traitor could be described as an insurrectionist he hasn't been convicted of it and while the 14 amendment doesn't require a conviction they think this would be appropriate, this is broadly in line with the trial judge and the minority opinion at the Colorado supreme court. Regarding absolute immunity with the exception of co conspirator Clarence Thomas I would expect the court to rule against the absurd concept, if they don't the U.S. will legally have ceased to be a democracy as the incumbent president would be able to take any illegal actions they chose to up to and including murdering political opponents and refusing to leave office with absolutely no legal redress. youtu.be/YD_ME9ebdl0?si=gFR7Q65UnOa4zmBK
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Post by pete on Jan 6, 2024 7:54:19 GMT
Covid in America /photo/1
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Post by pete on Jan 6, 2024 7:59:56 GMT
Sir John Curtice has forecast 14 November as the election date. I have added the December polling to my 'opposition leads' computation and, as we are now within a year of the election, brought Opinium back within the fold. Slight dip in the Labour lead, but nothing to cause concern. The next election, whenever held, remains firmly on track to be a 'change of government' election. Surely, way to close to the madness that will be America's election? Wonder, if Sunak's people think there is some way he can win riding on Trumps coattails?
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 6, 2024 8:03:04 GMT
peteThis from NPR in the US yesterday In most U.S. states, respiratory illness levels are currently "high" or "very high," according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released Friday. "After the holidays, after we've traveled and gathered, we are seeing what is pretty typical of this time of year, which is a lot of respiratory viruses," says Dr. Mandy Cohen, director of the CDC. A few viruses have been driving the upward trend, including flu which is very high and respiratory syncytial virus or RSV which appears to have peaked around Thanksgiving. COVID-19 levels have climbed higher than last season's peak. Still, they remain far below where they were at the height of the pandemic — as do levels of severe disease. "We are still very far below the levels that we were seeing with the omicron peak [in the 2021-2022 virus season]," says Amy Kirby, who leads the CDC's National Wastewater Surveillance System. "We're not looking at that really massive wave of infections. This is much more on par with what we saw [in the 2022-2023 season]." And while COVID levels are still higher than they were last season, other COVID metrics including emergency room visits, hospitalization rates and deaths are lower now than previous seasons, indicating that "COVID-19 infections are causing severe disease less frequently than earlier in the pandemic," according to the CDC.
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Post by pete on Jan 6, 2024 8:37:12 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 6, 2024 8:58:36 GMT
peteThe curse of demographics. It also of course applied to national idiots day in 2016. Irrespective of the fact that around 20% of brexitanians have changed their mind because of the inevitability of death and the fact that half the Brexit voters were over 55 by the end of this decade of those still alive who voted in the 2016 referendum the majority for remain would be a similar percentage to the 1974 EEC referendum, polling which already indicated a 55:35 split amongst those who have an opinion on Rejoining indicates that this is firmly on track for a 70%+ preference to rejoin by the end of the first term.of the incoming Labour government.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 6, 2024 9:03:44 GMT
True, but whilst still leading in the age group, only 40% of the over 65s intending to vote Tory at the next election is a worryingly low figure for their remaining demographic redoubt. They had a 47% LEAD in that age group in 2019!!
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2024 9:16:01 GMT
Daily Express ...yes I know...reports "Ed Davey's credibility 'hanging by thread' with MPs furious at role in Post Office scandal EXCLUSIVE: Sir Ed Davey has been attacked for his role in a major cover-up over the Post Office scandal which saw hundreds of people wrongly sent to prison." Well wouldn't you just have expected that !
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2024 9:17:17 GMT
Here we go. I have full faith in the Metropolitan Police and I hope it's a thorough job. At last. And not before time. Hope they nail some of those bastards.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 6, 2024 9:17:34 GMT
True, but whilst still leading in the age group, only 40% of the over 65s intending to vote Tory at the next election is a worryingly low figure for their remaining demographic redoubt. They had a 47% LEAD in that age group in 2019!! EDIT: My sense, derived from recent casual conversation with my fellow over 65s, is that while they still have Tory instincts, many have become disillusioned with the government and are not antagonistic towards Starmer in the way that they were to Corbyn. If Starmer can either neutralise anti Labour sentiment and /or even make inroads into this age group, then it's Goodnight Vienna for Sunak, surely, isn't? It looks like Labour have already got all the other age groups sewn up. The challenge there is getting people off their backsides to vote. The over 65s need far less encouragement. That's why polling stations are looking increasingly like Darby and Jones club gatherings on election days these days. "Do you remember the 1959 election Horace?? Old Superman was great, wasn't he?", says Agnes. "You"re dead right Agnes, could do with him back again. Is he still around.", Horace replies. "Time for your Van Morrison, I think, Horace.", says the Polling Station official.
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Post by leftieliberal on Jan 6, 2024 9:23:03 GMT
Here we go. I have full faith in the Metropolitan Police and I hope it's a thorough job. Only "potential fraud offences". Why isn't there an investigation into conspiracy to pervert the cause of justice and perjury?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2024 9:30:30 GMT
Only "potential fraud offences". Why isn't there an investigation into conspiracy to pervert the cause of justice and perjury? And what about Vennells' so called "honour"?
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 6, 2024 9:30:39 GMT
leftieliberal There would seem to be some evidence of perjury , lying to a parliamentary select committee for example is actionable, doesn't stop assorted Tories doing it routinely of course, but lying or misleading a government minister probably isn't criminally actionable. Conspiracy to pervert the course of justice would have to relate to the criminal cases only, there's a bigger civil class action for money recovery or libel possible.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 6, 2024 9:37:07 GMT
One of my favourite days of the sporting calendar today. The Third Round of the FA Cup. Been like this for me ever since I was a kid. This time last year, on my FA Cup odyssey from Rushall to Wembley (the account of which is now a much sought after limited edtion bestseller), I was at the Grimsby Town v Burton Albion tie. My first encounter with Cleethorpes Beach in January. Bracing in many ways.
For about forty years, my mate and I have exchanged Christmas cards that have always contained a little note at the bottom, "I reckon this could be Villa's year for the Cup", we say. It never has been in all that time and our message, still made each year, has become a longstanding joke between us now. He was seven months old and I was 17 months old the last time the Villa won the famous old trophy in 1957.
We still clutch straws though. This year's one is that the last time the Villa won the FA Cup, all those long 67 years ago, we beat Boro away 3-2 along the way. Villa play Boro at their place tonight.
The bells may be ringing once again for my dear old claret and blues. Let's do it for Benjamin Zephaniah.
Come on the Villa boys!
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2024 9:42:36 GMT
Only "potential fraud offences". Why isn't there an investigation into conspiracy to pervert the cause of justice and perjury? BBC reporting there is 👍
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