steve
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Post by steve on Jan 5, 2024 14:07:09 GMT
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Post by bardin1 on Jan 5, 2024 14:14:21 GMT
Clearly put there by someone who was off their trolley on drugs ...or an extremely tall prankster
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isa
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Post by isa on Jan 5, 2024 14:27:44 GMT
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Post by leftieliberal on Jan 5, 2024 14:31:13 GMT
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isa
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Post by isa on Jan 5, 2024 14:34:57 GMT
Electoral Calculus UKGE prediction updated to January 2024. Party | Percent | Seats | Con | 25.7% | 157 | Lab | 42.3% | 412 | LibDem | 10.9% | 30 | ReformUK | 9.0% | 0 | Green | 5.9% | 2 | SNP | 3.7% | 28 | Plaid | 0.8% | 2 |
Bank!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2024 14:38:00 GMT
Can alec and @danny please make use of the pm facility and give us all a break from their interminable covid squabbling. It’s utterly tedious and completely pointless.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 5, 2024 15:08:35 GMT
We Think (was Omnissus)
Think that's three polls in arow now showing an increased Labour lead. Suspect it is more a reversion to mean after the tightening of polls earlier
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Post by wb61 on Jan 5, 2024 15:36:20 GMT
Can alec and @danny please make use of the pm facility and give us all a break from their interminable covid squabbling. It’s utterly tedious and completely pointless. I have blocked them for the last 3 months, it has been a blessed relief!
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Post by alec on Jan 5, 2024 15:51:29 GMT
@fecklessmiser - I'm pondering taking the big step of blocking Danny, as he's just getting dafter and dafter, but I don't like blocking in principle, and there is also I believe, a danger in letting false statements stand unchallenged. I am posting factual information on an issue that does have some increasing salience at present, whereas Danny is posting made up shite.
Maybe someone could set up a 'Made Up Shite' thread?
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Post by alec on Jan 5, 2024 15:55:50 GMT
neilj - "Think that's three polls in arow now showing an increased Labour lead. Suspect it is more a reversion to mean after the tightening of polls earlier." I did post a caution before Christmas regarding holiday period polls. I have a vague memory (could well be wrong) that in the old days, holidays were believed to disrupt Labour vote shares in polls rather more than Conservative, but I can't recall why, and the reasons are almost certainly changed now anyway, but there may have been something in the holiday effect this time around.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 5, 2024 16:11:33 GMT
Can alec and @danny please make use of the pm facility and give us all a break from their interminable covid squabbling. It’s utterly tedious and completely pointless. Aw, its Christmas, enter into the spirit of pantomime. Alec keeps bringing this up so each time i bat him down. How could it be otherwise in a democracy, where we all have the right of reply? Admittedly, I didnt give him a full answer last time as I could have done. I was showing great restraint I thought, because I might have gone on where he said... ....Everywhere, people took reasonable precautions, yes, even in Sweden, like humans have done since time immemorial in times of disease, and we avoided the massive death toll ... ...and pointed out yet again he really does so often agree with me. Absolutely, people always change their behaviour in the face of extreme illness so as to mitigate it. Its practically bred into us. My argument is all about the extra interventions which were forced upon us this time by the state. Halting much of the world economy in particular, at horrendous cost. Closing schools. Masks in public. My central point has always been that the disease is self limiting, with everything we naturally do without thinking when faced with something like flu, at much the same outcome as when government tried to improve on this. It just didnt work.
I'm happy to extend to you the challenge I set him. Show me an example where the disease actually performed as claimed at the outset in terms of actually killing people in a general population. Prove it was that dangerous, because no one has. Its like saying father Christmas must exist because no one has been able to film him actually delivering presents. People believe in santa not because of proof but because someone they trusted told them to, but generally they come to realise it was a lie.
My argument is this experiment really has been done. It did not kill like that.
We know thats the case, not just from what didnt happen in Hastings winter of 19/20 when it had covid without anyone noticing much out of the ordinry for a winter respiratory disease, but also from all the times disease was spreading but a national response was simply timed too late for local conditions, so in lots of other places too it rose and began falling all by itself with lockdowns or absence thereof hardly making any difference. We had two waves before vaccines arrived, so that was already two waves too late, and afterwards the deaths continue.
If you want to shut me up, find some proof otherwise, I came to these conclusions because of the proof I am right collecting nover the years this has been going on. All Alec does nowadays is call me names, he long since gave up trying to respond in detail because he cannot.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 5, 2024 16:27:32 GMT
We Think (was Omnissus) Think that's three polls in arow now showing an increased Labour lead. Suspect it is more a reversion to mean after the tightening of polls earlier If there is a 'frit' effect likely to depress con support at the next election for not calling an election when expected, then its possible they cannot now avoid it, its already happening. All labour need to do is talk up why circumstances suggested this was the right time for one, and then con not doing it makes them look guilty. Today I heard a con spokesperson defending their latest tax measures as tax cuts despite the total take increasing for the new financial year. Obviously I am not your average voter, but by now there must be many people who understand that if their tax allowances dont keep up with inflation, then the number on their pay slip of total tax paid keeps going up not down. Here is a minister telling them taxes are falling while the number they see goes up. Is that convincing they have matters under control? Or that they are liars?
In 14 years con have presided over a general rise in taxation and another huge hike in national debt. Having come to power on a promise to manage the economy better than lab, to cut taxes and debt. Having promised brexit would turn the Uk economy around, well it did but towards being a basket case. Having promised to cut immigration, whereas they are relying on immigration to keep the economy going at all, and keep state care services functioning.
Just what exactly have they done which worked out for the average voter? The last labour block was a golden age by comparison. Its common for the last few months before an election to see a reversion to support for a government. But that surely must rely upon past supporters considering their record overall as the deadline for a real decision comes closer. In this case, what is there to persuade them back to vote con?
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Post by alec on Jan 5, 2024 17:01:09 GMT
For the avoidance of doubt, Danny is lying when he says I don't respond in detail. the Covid thread is full of detailed rebuttals that he chooses to ignore. And I don't use the term 'lying' lightly here, either.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 5, 2024 17:36:45 GMT
The Lib Dem and SNP figures look a lot closer to what I would expect than the 64/18 we had the other day. Still, Davey would be happy as he would be promoted to two questions to Starmer at PMQs. Not convinced that the Greens will get 2 seats though. The boundary changes have not helped Plaid, but they might get 3 or 4 with a bit of luck and tactical support.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 5, 2024 17:39:01 GMT
Can alec and @danny please make use of the pm facility and give us all a break from their interminable covid squabbling. It’s utterly tedious and completely pointless. So unlike the scintillating Jib/Steve exchanges.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2024 17:58:27 GMT
Can alec and @danny please make use of the pm facility and give us all a break from their interminable covid squabbling. It’s utterly tedious and completely pointless. So unlike the scintillating Jib/Steve exchanges. At least you get cartoon warnings with them.
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Post by alec on Jan 5, 2024 17:59:14 GMT
More bizarre fairy tales from the Children's Commissioner on BBC R4 discussing school absences.
She's admitted this is a problem 'all over the western world', she's accepted that it's over two years since the last lockdown, but she's still completely failing to even state the basic finding that the vast bulk of the increase in absence - including persistent absence - is directly caused by sickness.
The BBC is of course going along with this myth making, and no doubt, Labour will commit resources to all manner of worthy initiatives, and while these will have some benefit, particularly for children from difficult backgrounds, the entire edifice of caring for education is built upon one simple fallacy. Government figures repeatedly demonstrate that the primary reason for the growth in school pupil absence is due to increased illness, something that is affecting children all over the world.
One day the penny will drop, but an awful lot of children will have their education ruined before the likes of Dame De Souza get their heads around this simple fact and act accordingly.
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Post by ptarmigan on Jan 5, 2024 18:02:13 GMT
By-election klaxon: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67895246The Tories have an 11k majority in Kingswood, which was Labour during the Blair years. Should be a fairly routine pickup in the current climate you'd think.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 5, 2024 18:21:57 GMT
"Chris Skidmore, a former Tory minister, has resigned the Conservative whip over Rishi Sunak’s plans to issue new oil and gas licences, calling it a “tragedy” that the UK has lost its climate leadership.
He is also resigning as an MP, meaning the Tories face a byelection in his Kingswood constituency. His majority is 11,000."
Respect to Skidmore acting on a matter of conscience unlike his fellow Tories forced out for corruption or sexual impropriety.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 5, 2024 18:31:32 GMT
alec There is little evidence to support your assertion that this is illness driven. This from NESTA The UK's innovation agency for social good. / School attendance: analysing causes and impact in pursuit of solutions 27 November 2023 "School attendance: analysing causes and impact in pursuit o f solutions The post-pandemic rises in absence rates are staggering. The sudden surge in overall and persistent absence has left schools and policymakers scrambling for causes and solutions. Finding ways to bring pupils back into school is crucial – absence has a profound impact on educational attainment and, by extension, longer-term outcomes. The challenge is complex and widespread. Our report finds that the rise in absence between 2019 and 2022 has affected pupils all over the country, with and without additional vulnerabilities (such as Free School Meals or Special Education Needs). Deteriorating mental health and a shift in long-held attitudes towards physical attendance (amongst parents and pupils) appear to be significant drivers of this change. Significantly, a small number of schools that have bucked the trend and lowered absence rates may hold the key to tackling this crisis. What's in the report? While absence has always been an issue that disproportionately affects pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds, the recent rise in absence has affected pupils from all backgrounds all over the country. The rise in absence rates for pupils in the early years of secondary school is a concerning sign that non-attendance habits are developing early and will worsen as pupils progress through school. Friday absence rates have increased in recent years, but were already on the rise before the pandemic. This report found no evidence of a causal link between Friday absences and parents’ working from home. Deteriorating pupil mental health is likely to be a significant factor, as is changing attitudes among parents and pupils to physical attendance. There is no strong connection between known school characteristics and rises in absence during the pandemic. A small number of schools have bucked the trend and managed to reduce absence in very challenging circumstances. Their approaches may be key to tackling The rise in absence is likely to have a profound impact on educational attainment and long-term outcomes for a huge number of children. " It's highly unlikely that the increased absence on Fridays or before or after school holidays has much to do with physical illness but other reasons.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 5, 2024 18:47:52 GMT
Sir John Curtice has forecast 14 November as the election date.
I have added the December polling to my 'opposition leads' computation and, as we are now within a year of the election, brought Opinium back within the fold. Slight dip in the Labour lead, but nothing to cause concern. The next election, whenever held, remains firmly on track to be a 'change of government' election.
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Post by bedknobsandboomstick on Jan 5, 2024 18:59:08 GMT
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Post by alec on Jan 5, 2024 19:11:41 GMT
steve - "It's highly unlikely that the increased absence on Fridays or before or after school holidays has much to do with physical illness but other reasons." On the contrary, if you know anything about post viral impacts of covid (and other post viral conditions) you would appreciate that attempting to work a full 5 day week can be exhausting. Many people with long covid-like symptoms report that getting to the end of the working week can be a real challenge, and long rests over the weekend, or days off towards the end of the week, are quite normal. To be honest, it's a bit fucking obvious, really. "Deteriorating pupil mental health is likely to be a significant factor,...". I can agree with this, and would observe that the most common post covid symptom in children, a fact which we know from numerous high quality studies, is anxiety based mental health impairment. We also have copious studies backing this up with data from pediatric brain scans and other biomarker studies, so again, no surprise. There is an extremely strong tide running against any recognition of long term social impacts of covid, and this affects many institutions too. We'll get there in the end, but it will take some time, I fear.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 5, 2024 19:27:06 GMT
Sir John Curtice has forecast 14 November as the election date. I have added the December polling to my 'opposition leads' computation and, as we are now within a year of the election, brought Opinium back within the fold. Slight dip in the Labour lead, but nothing to cause concern. The next election, whenever held, remains firmly on track to be a 'change of government' election. Presumably this is Curtice's working assumption. What's it based on?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2024 19:41:34 GMT
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Post by mandolinist on Jan 5, 2024 20:07:07 GMT
Re: Kingswood by-election. Back in the nineties this seat was won by the brilliant Roger Berry, a very popular MP. The rumour mill in Bristol is suggesting that the very unpopular Labour metro mayor, Dan Norris (ex mp in Wansdyke) is very keen to stand in the by-election. Not a great move for Labour to select him in my opinion, but it could encourage the Greens to give it a serious go.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 5, 2024 20:09:42 GMT
Sir John Curtice has forecast 14 November as the election date. I have added the December polling to my 'opposition leads' computation and, as we are now within a year of the election, brought Opinium back within the fold. Slight dip in the Labour lead, but nothing to cause concern. The next election, whenever held, remains firmly on track to be a 'change of government' election. Presumably this is Curtice's working assumption. What's it based on? Seems to be mainly the timing of the Conservatives party conference, with Sunak announcing the election on 2nd October. Incidentally, the Tories are back to going last as the Labour one is in September.
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Post by graham on Jan 5, 2024 20:10:01 GMT
Will Skidmore's departure swing Sunak in favour of a May election to avoid damaging by elections in Kingswood, Wellingborough and Blackpool South? The likely prospect of three Labour gains so close to Polling Day would surely concern him.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 5, 2024 20:18:41 GMT
Presumably this is Curtice's working assumption. What's it based on? Seems to be mainly the timing of the Conservatives party conference, with Sunak announcing the election on 2nd October. Incidentally, the Tories are back to going last as the Labour one is in September. Makes some sense, although Tory Party conferences have been disasters of late. Sunak may think they generate more trap doors than launch pads. On the other hand, what an opportunity for Labour to use theirs as a campaign launch. Not a premature victory rally a la Kinnock in Sheffield though. Lessons have probably been learned there. Sunak may want to go before the Conferences to disrupt rival party jamborees and avoid presenting a Tory wake to the nation.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 5, 2024 20:19:57 GMT
Will Skidmore's departure swing Sunak in favour of a May election to avoid damaging by elections in Kingswood, Wellingborough and Blackpool South? The likely prospect of three Labour gains so close to Polling Day would surely concern him. Unfortunately no
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