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Post by pete on Jan 6, 2024 10:58:17 GMT
Steve- I think the point is long term effects if you keep getting Covid, can't be good.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 6, 2024 11:09:15 GMT
pete Just had covid for the fourth time in October, was actually the first time I felt a bit unwell for a few days and a niggly cough hung around for a couple of weeks. So maybe it's creeping up on me. Given I've had all the vaccines and boosters which have invariably made me feel like crap for days after have to put my hands up as not bothering with the most recent booster( after I had covid number 4). Got the flu vaccine though as I've been genuinely ill with seasonal influenza before. Before I trigger Alec this doesn't mean I don't think vaccination is a good idea I do but given that three out of four covid episodes occurred after vaccination and boosters it's benefit for me seems marginal.
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Post by James E on Jan 6, 2024 13:07:28 GMT
pete The curse of demographics. It also of course applied to national idiots day in 2016. Irrespective of the fact that around 20% of brexitanians have changed their mind because of the inevitability of death and the fact that half the Brexit voters were over 55 by the end of this decade of those still alive who voted in the 2016 referendum the majority for remain would be a similar percentage to the 1974 EEC referendum, polling which already indicated a 55:35 split amongst those who have an opinion on Rejoining indicates that this is firmly on track for a 70%+ preference to rejoin by the end of the first term.of the incoming Labour government. Slight exaggeration there, Steve. The current average of all polls on 'Rejoin/Stay Out' is 58/42 for Rejoin. And while there is considerable variance between individual pollsters (BMJ show low leads, and WeThink high ones) the like-with-like comparisons show a very settled picture. YouGov, who I regard as the most reliable, average 59/41 across three polls in the past 3 months. Opinion has stabilised in the past 3-6 months, whereas in the previous 2 years there was a steady rise in support for rejoining. However, the age-split on this means that there is a trend towards Rejoin over time. This is worth about a 0.6% swing per year. This is likely to be significant, as views on Brexit are very entrenched - far more so than Voting Intention or almost any issue you might name. The age-division has become even greater since 2016, with those changing their minds being concentrated in the under 65s, while opinion among the over-65s has moved by just a few points. Looking ahead to around 2030, support for rejoining might be expected to rise to around 63% against 37% for staying out, even if no-one changes their mind.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2024 14:05:28 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 6, 2024 14:30:23 GMT
James E Polls vary a bit but a 70:30 split is quite plausible by the end of decade. Given the continued discontent amongst brexitanians who are discovering that leave didn't remotely mean what they thought it meant it's not very difficult to envisage a pro remain majority similar if not greater than 1974 by around 2029. In such circumstances persisting with the nonsense of " make Brexit work" won't be a plausible position for any major party.
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Post by leftieliberal on Jan 6, 2024 15:11:04 GMT
When will the next General Election be: the Institute of Government has a useful web page with some dates. www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/next-general-electionAlthough January 28th 2025 is the latest possible date the last Thursday is January 23rd. [1] Parliament must be dissolved by 26th March for a 2nd May 2024 election. Parliament returns from its Summer recess on 2nd September. Dissolution on 6th means the earliest polling day is 10th October. [1] There is one other point against a January polling day and that is that local councils usually update their electoral registers in December. The IfG mentions local authority budgets but not the electoral registers.
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Post by graham on Jan 6, 2024 15:16:22 GMT
James E Polls vary a bit but a 70:30 split is quite plausible by the end of decade. Given the continued discontent amongst brexitanians who are discovering that leave didn't remotely mean what they thought it meant it's not very difficult to envisage a pro remain majority similar if not greater than 1974 by around 2029. In such circumstances persisting with the nonsense of " make Brexit work" won't be a plausible position for any major party. Such polls give very little indication as to how salient the issue is. Voters might well favour rejoining when asked but few are actually eagerly straining at the leash to actually do so! That was also the position back in the early 1970s when Heath took us into the EEC.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2024 15:29:19 GMT
James E Polls vary a bit but a 70:30 split is quite plausible by the end of decade. Given the continued discontent amongst brexitanians who are discovering that leave didn't remotely mean what they thought it meant it's not very difficult to envisage a pro remain majority similar if not greater than 1974 by around 2029. In such circumstances persisting with the nonsense of " make Brexit work" won't be a plausible position for any major party. Such polls give very little indication as to how salient the issue is. Voters might well favour rejoining when asked but few are actually eagerly straining at the leash to actually do so! That was also the position back in the early 1970s when Heath took us into the EEC. Exactly:- IPSOS Nov 2023 Issues Index. "EU/Europe/Brexit" :-5% ( lowest since Dec 2015) Top 5 in order-Economy/Inflation/NHS/Immigration/Housing
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 6, 2024 16:52:03 GMT
When will the next General Election be: the Institute of Government has a useful web page with some dates. www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/next-general-electionAlthough January 28th 2025 is the latest possible date the last Thursday is January 23rd. [1] Parliament must be dissolved by 26th March for a 2nd May 2024 election. Parliament returns from its Summer recess on 2nd September. Dissolution on 6th means the earliest polling day is 10th October. [1] There is one other point against a January polling day and that is that local councils usually update their electoral registers in December. The IfG mentions local authority budgets but not the electoral registers. There is another point against January, which is that Sunak has now said publicly, on two occasions, that the election will be "this year".
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 6, 2024 16:52:05 GMT
"That was also the position back in the early 1970s when Heath took us into the EEC."
That was also the position before the brexitanians and their client media started banging on about immigration. The issue of European union membership and immigration was always conflated by the far right gutter media, since Brexit has failed to deliver their promised lies about immigration they no longer do so with the same deranged gusto.
There are issues with greater immediate priority however in the poll Colin referred to its still just below the environment as one of the top 10 priorities, it didn't feature in the top 10 at all for decades during our membership.
Colin also neglected to mention that a poll conducted the same week showed 57% would vote to rejoin with 72% favouring closer relationships with 30% of those who voted for Brexit having changed their minds and would vote to rejoin.
It would be surprising if something that on even an optimistic schedule couldn't realistically happen until 2030 was the number one priority now, this doesn't mean it isn't popular.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 6, 2024 17:58:13 GMT
In the latest did he actually say that news from the US the traitor decides that the answer to the U.S. massive firearm problem in the wake of yet another multiple school shooting is that people should " get over it".
Friday’s remarks were not the first time in the last year that the rapist has apparently tried to deflect from having a substantial conversation about gun violence in the US. During a speech in April 2023 to the National Rifle Association, Traitor argued that the long history of deadly school shootings in the US is “not a gun problem”. He instead blamed the issue on Democrats, mental health issues, marijuana and the transgender community.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 6, 2024 19:13:04 GMT
More bizarre fairy tales from the Children's Commissioner on BBC R4 discussing school absences. She's admitted this is a problem 'all over the western world', she's accepted that it's over two years since the last lockdown, but she's still completely failing to even state the basic finding that the vast bulk of the increase in absence - including persistent absence - is directly caused by sickness. The BBC is of course going along with this myth making, and no doubt, Labour will commit resources to all manner of worthy initiatives, and while these will have some benefit, particularly for children from difficult backgrounds, the entire edifice of caring for education is built upon one simple fallacy. Government figures repeatedly demonstrate that the primary reason for the growth in school pupil absence is due to increased illness, something that is affecting children all over the world. . I think you miss the point that pretty much the only permitted reason for school absence is illness. Otherwise you get fined for your kids absence. No one is going to check if you say your kid is ill for a day. So do you think parents are going to voulnteer for a fine or say their kids are ill? The point is, we just taught everyone it really doesnt matter if you miss a bit of school.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 6, 2024 19:28:49 GMT
leftieliberal There would seem to be some evidence of perjury , lying to a parliamentary select committee for example is actionable, doesn't stop assorted Tories doing it routinely of course, but lying or misleading a government minister probably isn't criminally actionable. Conspiracy to pervert the course of justice would have to relate to the criminal cases only, there's a bigger civil class action for money recovery or libel possible. The post above seemed to suggest investigations for fraud. Lying about something for personal financial gain is fraud, isnt it? So lying that the software worked so as not to get fired is fraud?
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Post by leftieliberal on Jan 6, 2024 20:34:03 GMT
Daily Express ...yes I know...reports "Ed Davey's credibility 'hanging by thread' with MPs furious at role in Post Office scandal EXCLUSIVE: Sir Ed Davey has been attacked for his role in a major cover-up over the Post Office scandal which saw hundreds of people wrongly sent to prison." You can always tell when a Tory is lying. Here is the truth about Ed Davey and the Post Office:As you can see, Ed Davey met Alan Bates in October 2010. Also Ed’s advisory work for the law firm Herbert Smith Freehills (HSF), between 2015 and 2021, was exclusively about energy and climate change policy, and was properly declared on the MPs’ register of interests. If you do not desist from telling these lies, I shall request that Mark bans you.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2024 20:48:09 GMT
“ If you do not desist from telling these lies, I shall request that Mark bans you.”
Good luck with that.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 6, 2024 21:03:17 GMT
leftieliberal I mentioned this earlier jib's obsession with posting any old bollocks he can find that attacks the liberal democrats means he makes no attempt to fact check the crap he posts. He's not going to change, he can't. Btw your link doesn't connect with the page you want. Sir Ed did meet Mr Bates in October 2010 - and the Lib Dems say he was the first postal affairs minister to hold such a meeting since campaigners began pressing for talks in 2003.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jan 6, 2024 21:06:03 GMT
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Post by graham on Jan 6, 2024 21:12:03 GMT
Now Tory MP - and Pensions Minister - Tony Maynard faces being investigated. Probably too late for a by election at Blackpool North & Clevelys.
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Post by jib on Jan 6, 2024 21:31:59 GMT
You can always tell when a Tory is lying. Here is the truth about Ed Davey and the Post Office:
As you can see, Ed Davey met Alan Bates in October 2010. Also Ed’s advisory work for the law firm Herbert Smith Freehills (HSF), between 2015 and 2021, was exclusively about energy and climate change policy, and was properly declared on the MPs’ register of interests. If you do not desist from telling these lies, I shall request that Mark bans you. Don't you threaten me you you jumped up Lib Dem sh**ter. Ed Davey has questions to answer, and I've reposted from other sources on Twitter. If you don't like it - yes, please take up with the site owner and moderator. But don't use it as a threat. Jumped up little s**t calling me a Tory. You got into bed with them in 2010.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 6, 2024 22:04:38 GMT
You can always tell when a Tory is lying. Here is the truth about Ed Davey and the Post Office:
As you can see, Ed Davey met Alan Bates in October 2010. Also Ed’s advisory work for the law firm Herbert Smith Freehills (HSF), between 2015 and 2021, was exclusively about energy and climate change policy, and was properly declared on the MPs’ register of interests. If you do not desist from telling these lies, I shall request that Mark bans you. Don't you threaten me you you jumped up Lib Dem sh**ter. Ed Davey has questions to answer, and I've reposted from other sources on Twitter. If you don't like it - yes, please take up with the site owner and moderator. But don't use it as a threat. Jumped up little s**t calling me a Tory. You got into bed with them in 2010. You're a twat. And I claim my £10.
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Post by jib on Jan 6, 2024 22:49:03 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2024 22:51:30 GMT
Don't you threaten me you you jumped up Lib Dem sh**ter. Ed Davey has questions to answer, and I've reposted from other sources on Twitter. If you don't like it - yes, please take up with the site owner and moderator. But don't use it as a threat. Jumped up little s**t calling me a Tory. You got into bed with them in 2010. So hard to understand why this site is dying.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 6, 2024 22:58:29 GMT
I watched Aston Villa perform tonight. Although it was free to air and I didn't actually pay anything, I still feel I deserve a refund.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 6, 2024 23:21:26 GMT
Paul
He does seem somewhat obsessed if nothing else it's both tedious and can't be good for his blood pressure.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2024 23:29:38 GMT
Paul He does seem somewhat obsessed if nothing else it's both tedious and can't be good for his blood pressure. I’m not really bothered about his blood pressure, tbh.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2024 23:30:57 GMT
I watched Aston Villa perform tonight. Although it was free to air and I didn't actually pay anything, I still feel I deserve a refund.e p Excellent team but a strange performance today. I gave up at halftime.
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Post by eor on Jan 7, 2024 0:50:29 GMT
Interesting take from Harvard law professor in the likely results of the Traitor's appeals to the US supreme court. I think he's right the far right dominated court will look for an off ramp on the exclusion from the Ballot case , adopting the approach that while the traitor could be described as an insurrectionist he hasn't been convicted of it and while the 14 amendment doesn't require a conviction they think this would be appropriate, this is broadly in line with the trial judge and the minority opinion at the Colorado supreme court. Regarding absolute immunity with the exception of co conspirator Clarence Thomas I would expect the court to rule against the absurd concept, if they don't the U.S. will legally have ceased to be a democracy as the incumbent president would be able to take any illegal actions they chose to up to and including murdering political opponents and refusing to leave office with absolutely no legal redress. youtu.be/YD_ME9ebdl0?si=gFR7Q65UnOa4zmBKThat's the trouble tho, unless they uphold the Colorado ruling (which will mean they'd have to deny in turn each of the grounds on which it is being appealed) then it's really up to them how much of it they get into. If they strike down the Colorado ruling they technically only have to give their opinion on the specific grounds for doing so, and if it's as simple as "being awarded party Convention Delegates via a State Primary isn't obtaining any kind of Office whatever" so the Insurrection Clause doesn't apply to how parties conduct Primaries (which has been the verdict in at least one State already) then they could just choose to leave it at that.
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Post by eor on Jan 7, 2024 1:18:54 GMT
More bizarre fairy tales from the Children's Commissioner on BBC R4 discussing school absences. She's admitted this is a problem 'all over the western world', she's accepted that it's over two years since the last lockdown, but she's still completely failing to even state the basic finding that the vast bulk of the increase in absence - including persistent absence - is directly caused by sickness. The BBC is of course going along with this myth making, and no doubt, Labour will commit resources to all manner of worthy initiatives, and while these will have some benefit, particularly for children from difficult backgrounds, the entire edifice of caring for education is built upon one simple fallacy. Government figures repeatedly demonstrate that the primary reason for the growth in school pupil absence is due to increased illness, something that is affecting children all over the world. . I think you miss the point that pretty much the only permitted reason for school absence is illness. Otherwise you get fined for your kids absence. No one is going to check if you say your kid is ill for a day. So do you think parents are going to voulnteer for a fine or say their kids are ill? Danny - I've wondered that before about the school absence figures, it feels like there must be *some* structural increase in the sickness rates since declaring fake sickness suddenly became the only free option for parents taking kids out a few days early to get half-price holiday flights. At the same time, if the increase in school sickness were largely down to tactical decisions by parents then there'd be no corresponding impact on employee sick leave rates. Whereas this chart is pretty striking! www.statista.com/statistics/290196/uk-sickness-absence-rate/It's actually worse than it looks, because given the rapid increase in flexibility, WFH options etc post-pandemic you'd expect the sickness rate to be lower than before, because more people with short-term illnesses have the option of logging on, dealing with a few crucial things, communicating that other things will be delayed a day or two and then going back to bed with their boss's blessing for what will then count as a day worked, rather than having to make a binary decision of going to the office or calling in sick. And likewise more parents of school-age children now have the ability to juggle caring for a sick child at home with doing a minimal or even sufficient amount of work, when previously they'd have to had take the day off to do this, and many would have called in sick themselves rather than risk a demeaning argument about their priorities and their commitment (especially as the parent who can't work due to a sick child will usually be a woman). So this should be pushing the employee sickness rate down too. And yet, it seems to have soared. Hard to escape the conclusion that this is because there's suddenly rather more sickness than there was before?
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Post by joeboy on Jan 7, 2024 1:46:17 GMT
Not much change really. SF have been around 30% for a while now. FF and FG have also been bobbing around the high teens/low twenties for about 2 years Barring a major scandal I don't think much will change until we have the local and Euro elections in June. SF had a bad night at the locals in 2019 losing 78 of 159 seats. A conservative estimate would be that they will gain around 150 seats this time round, so the optics will be good for them even if they perform below their polling average. The Euro vote will probably be a better indicator of the national mood. It will also be a chance to assess if recent events really have generated any meaningful support for the far right here. I'm quite dubious that unease about immigration will produce much support for extreme right wing candidates, but we'll find out in June.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 7, 2024 7:00:38 GMT
It's a shame to see anyone leave the forum however when it's an individual who has posted just five times in over 2 years, four of which were to say how crap the forum is and insult those posting here, it's not that great a loss.
When polls and elections occur they do get looked at in detail , however general political and world events of interest do as well and they occur far more frequently Similar posting patterns occur on most political websites, it might surprise some ☺ that I participate in rejoin forums with tens of thousands of members and less than 20% of postings relate specifically to rejoin. The issue here is probably with so few active participants it can appear that it's pontificating on pet topics only.
I have my own special interest, however I do try to vary the topics and inject a bit of humour.Would be a pitty if the forum became too formulaic.
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