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Post by alec on Dec 21, 2023 22:48:24 GMT
Briefly, more seriously, do take care out there this festive season. JN.1 is pretty rampant now, with the ONS survey indicating infections are currently at one of the highest levels of the entire pandemic, and still rising. It's not completely inconceivable that this will turn out to be the worst wave of the lot so far, in terms of infections, although well short of the worst peaks of hospitalisations and deaths. But it's important to understand that the acute phase is only part of the story. There will be lots of long term health impacts from this latest wave, and impacts that we don't fully appreciate or understand yet, so take care.
It's also worth noting that this is nothing to do with covid becoming seasonal. There is no sign whatsoever that it's settling into a seasonal pattern, As we're hitting a big JN.1 peak, so is Victoria, Australia. These peaks, as they always have been, are variant driven, not seasonal. As the WHO's chief scientist Jeremy Farrar says - "Increases in rates of infection in North and Southern hemispheres at the same time of year. COVID-19 has not yet, if it ever will, become a seasonal viral infection."
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Post by jib on Dec 21, 2023 22:50:20 GMT
Oh do give up you senile old fart. I'm just illustrating what an uphill battle the Lib Dems face vs FPTP constituencies. They genuinely had a shot at the big time after good performances through 2005, then 2010. They pis**ed it all away with their dalliance with the Tories. I don't know whether it's me or Crofty who is senile. But under Catch-22 rules if I am accused of mental deficiency by a lunatic, then I must be sane or mentally competent? I still don't get it. If JIB is a Tory supporter then he should be pleased the Lib-Dems backed the coalition & enabled the Tories, through the ensuing loss of Lib-Dem seats, to win in 2015. If he isn't then he was a non-partisan supporter of Brexit? I think it's 3 strikes and you're out for me. Four in fact. Surely a true Blue would have voted Remain? I was a supporter of Brexit for numerous reasons, but I can assure you I am no Tory. I think I've even admitted here that I voted once for the Lib Dems.
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Post by robbiealive on Dec 21, 2023 22:59:44 GMT
robbiealive - "For younger readers - if there are any -- JIB refers to a sail carried by hostile ships." There's call for @fecklessmiser to adjudicate I think, as I'm going to raise a Christmas Quibble on the mainsail. Technically, a jib is merely a sail attached to the foremast and the bowsprit or deck in front of the foremast. The expression 'don't like the cut of your jib' was derived from the fact that the shape and arrangement of the jib was often sufficient to denote the nationality of an approaching vessel, and hence it's threat or otherwise. But the jib itself is just a sail, carried by friend and foe alike. Work that one out, Crofty. I did know that but cut corners as I strive to be concise, & it was directed to young people who are all have attention deficit problems as we know. I have always loved fiction connected to the sea. Hornblower, Innes etc when younger, RL Stevenson, Dana, Melville, Conrad, my avatar. But I hate sailing. You always end up sitting on a wet plank with a sore arse & spray in yr face.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 21, 2023 23:13:31 GMT
I know I shouldn't but why the fuck would a liberal democrat supporter or anyone else with a functioning brain for that matter ,expect the party to pick up the number 254 and 324 on our target list! There are 55 seats that require a 15% or less swing from the Tories which are in play because of Tory vote collapse.
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Post by leftieliberal on Dec 21, 2023 23:18:04 GMT
Yes, not sure why they did that, most recent comparison here Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 45% (-1) CON: 28% (-1) LDM: 10% (=) RFM: 8% (+3) SNP: 2% (-1) GRN: 2% (-1) Via @survation , 15-18 Dec. Changes w/ 31 Oct - 3 Nov. That's a very low figure for the Greens . I have been cautious re- some of the poll ratings the party has recorded but would still expect a vote share of circa 3% in a GE. The SNP figure is also pretty low and would imply a vote share in Scotland no higher than 25%.
It's a small poll, only 792 people sampled, so the random errors will be rather larger than for other pollsters.
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Post by leftieliberal on Dec 21, 2023 23:28:38 GMT
That's a very low figure for the Greens . I have been cautious re- some of the poll ratings the party has recorded but would still expect a vote share of circa 3% in a GE. The SNP figure is also pretty low and would imply a vote share in Scotland no higher than 25%.
Close. The tables show 23.9%, but since the Scots sample size was 80, and the margin of error consequently huge, you are correct not to assume that the % of the UK vote (meaningless anyway) shown has any meaning.For low probabilities and small samples Poisson statistics gives a good feel for the standard deviation, so here sigma=sqrt(80)~9. The usual two-sigma rule suggests 80+/- 18, so 62-98. As oldnat says it's not really meaningful.
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Post by leftieliberal on Dec 21, 2023 23:37:16 GMT
Surely a true Blue would have voted Remain? I was a supporter of Brexit for numerous reasons, but I can assure you I am no Tory. I think I've even admitted here that I voted once for the Lib Dems. If not a Tory, then either a Kipper or a Plaid supporter, the only other two parties for whom a majority of their supporters voted for Brexit.
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Post by eor on Dec 21, 2023 23:48:41 GMT
On Trump’s latest woes… I think the Colorado judgement could be quite significant. Not in the state itself – he wasn’t going to win there anyway and the unfortunate coincidence of Colorado’s Supreme Court justices being wholly Democrat-appointed will be easily spun by his campaign to raise money and support elsewhere. Where I think it’s potentially bad for him is in terms of the US Supreme Court. As Chief Justice, John Roberts will have been desperately hoping none of these 14th Amendment cases made it as far as them; the precedent of ruling on whether an individual is fit to be President is not one he’d want anything to do with. And batting back appeals from failed attempts by various States would be easy – there’s plenty of precedent of the Supreme Court not taking up cases that are based on arcane and speculative theory which have consistently failed in the lower courts. But now it’s different – a State has disqualified the leading candidate for one of the major parties, and to not hear an appeal on such a radical and far-reaching situation would be very hard to justify. And this is where I think it gets potentially bad for Trump – I agree with others who’ve posted that there is not a great chance that this Court rules that Trump is an insurrectionist**. But Roberts doesn’t want to rule on that at all – given that it’d now be very hard to refuse to hear the case, I suspect what he’ll try to do is build a majority around sending it back down as it being entirely Colorado’s business who they do or don’t nominate for President. And as steve has pointed out, some of the conservative justices have a fair bit of history on that subject. If that’s the basis on which they rule, I have no idea how it’d go, but if the three liberal justices are persuaded to vote for it on the basis that it’s the best chance of affirming Trump’s unsuitability, Roberts only needs one of the other five conservatives to agree on a States’ Rights basis and he’s home. Or he could get two and win with vitriolic dissents from both wings of the Court, or he could fail and they have to rule on the issue itself. Who knows. But if the Colorado ruling is allowed to stand unchallenged it will strengthen the attempts to do the same in other states. And one crucial state could be enough to change the landscape. (** but wouldn't it be glorious if they did? Trump being ended by the constitutional pedantry of the uber-literalists he cynically appointed in order to appease the abortion nutjobs would be the greatest case of being hoist with his own petard there's ever been)
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Post by eor on Dec 22, 2023 0:05:16 GMT
steve - notification showed you tagged me last month, ta for that (and to someone who presumably questioned my absence to draw that response from you!). Sadly no I wasn't on holiday, just a combination of a long work project reaching sustained insane levels and a nearly-two-year-old suddenly switching from moving in two dimensions to four. Suddenly found work and family were occupying literally all of the time in every day and I didn't have chance to even come and read here let alone catch up or get involved in discussions. I've barely even seen the news in that time, other than bits friends have commented on directly. I did think of this place a couple of times tho, not least when Sunak couldn't get in to no10 with Rutte - that's the sort of thing that only happens when you're on board the Major Train to Doomsville.
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Post by isa on Dec 22, 2023 0:13:20 GMT
Just another evening on UKPR2, I see. This place gets more bizarre by the day. If you just kept the polling and more whimsical (e.g. sporting and various comedic/cultural) posts which first attracted me here, I think we would probably have a much leaner and more enjoyable, accessible site.
The amount of self-indulgent, (I must unfortunately include myself in that category), pseudo-intellectual, posturing, tub-thumping, claptrap that appears on here is often, however, of industrial strength and volume.
I nevertheless wish all contributors and lurkers a happy Christmas and a peaceful and prosperous 2024.
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Post by robbiealive on Dec 22, 2023 0:17:25 GMT
Thanks. Wasn't there an admendment to a bill by Tory rebels during the Coalition to hold an EU ref, which the Lib-Dems helped vote down? In effect, they agreed with their coalition partners that such a Ref was off the table? The Lib Dems had an EU referendum in their 2015 manifesto, as did the Conservatives and (obviously) UKIP. The only significant GB wide party that did not was Labour - another thing the much maligned Ed Miliband got right. I have never read a manifesto in my life, or even a summary of one. It would be a waste of time as I always know how I'm going to vote: besides if i am going to read fiction I like it to be well written. Of course many argue it's pointless voting-- I know there are lots of counter arguments: it is rational to vote, tho I don't really understand them. I follow the categoric imperative which states, I think, that for a form of individual behaviour to be acceptable, -here the negative act of not voting!- it would have to be deemed acceptable were it universalised, i.e., if nobody voted! & nothing enrages me more than voter suppression, eg Tory voter ID. They sgould be condemened for that alone.
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Post by isa on Dec 22, 2023 0:21:21 GMT
On Trump’s latest woes… I think the Colorado judgement could be quite significant. Not in the state itself – he wasn’t going to win there anyway and the unfortunate coincidence of Colorado’s Supreme Court justices being wholly Democrat-appointed will be easily spun by his campaign to raise money and support elsewhere. Where I think it’s potentially bad for him is in terms of the US Supreme Court. As Chief Justice, John Roberts will have been desperately hoping none of these 14th Amendment cases made it as far as them; the precedent of ruling on whether an individual is fit to be President is not one he’d want anything to do with. And batting back appeals from failed attempts by various States would be easy – there’s plenty of precedent of the Supreme Court not taking up cases that are based on arcane and speculative theory which have consistently failed in the lower courts. But now it’s different – a State has disqualified the leading candidate for one of the major parties, and to not hear an appeal on such a radical and far-reaching situation would be very hard to justify. And this is where I think it gets potentially bad for Trump – I agree with others who’ve posted that there is not a great chance that this Court rules that Trump is an insurrectionist**. But Roberts doesn’t want to rule on that at all – given that it’d now be very hard to refuse to hear the case, I suspect what he’ll try to do is build a majority around sending it back down as it being entirely Colorado’s business who they do or don’t nominate for President. And as steve has pointed out, some of the conservative justices have a fair bit of history on that subject. If that’s the basis on which they rule, I have no idea how it’d go, but if the three liberal justices are persuaded to vote for it on the basis that it’s the best chance of affirming Trump’s unsuitability, Roberts only needs one of the other five conservatives to agree on a States’ Rights basis and he’s home. Or he could get two and win with vitriolic dissents from both wings of the Court, or he could fail and they have to rule on the issue itself. Who knows. But if the Colorado ruling is allowed to stand unchallenged it will strengthen the attempts to do the same in other states. And one crucial state could be enough to change the landscape. (** but wouldn't it be glorious if they did? Trump being ended by the constitutional pedantry of the uber-literalists he cynically appointed in order to appease the abortion nutjobs would be the greatest case of being hoist with his own petard there's ever been) Thanks eor. Very interesting post.
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Post by eor on Dec 22, 2023 0:42:42 GMT
On the US polling in general... Trump is still prohibitively dominant in the Republican primary polling. There's one poll that shows Haley only 15pts behind him in New Hampshire, but even that is solely at the expense of Ramaswamy and Christie, Trump's support remains solid. And outside of NH, no-one is making any impact at all, tho Haley is now tussling with DeSantis for "best of the rest" nationally, albeit with both 50 points behind Trump with only a month until the first voting. www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/2024_republican_presidential_nomination-7548.htmlOn the national picture, it's still basically tied between Trump and Biden. And historical comparisons are next to useless now - Biden's approval numbers are utterly dreadful by historical comparisons, but so are Trump's. And normally the incumbent President would have a big advantage over their main challenger in terms of national recognition at this stage but that's obviously not padding Biden's numbers here given who Trump is. The only elections we can sensibly compare to are 2016 and 2020 but even then... Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton, and criminally-indicted former-President Trump is not the drain-the-swamp guy of 2015-16 either. And Biden is four years older and much more scrutinised by his own side than he was in 2020. www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html
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Post by mercian on Dec 22, 2023 1:26:33 GMT
I nevertheless wish all contributors and lurkers a happy Christmas and a peaceful and prosperous 2024. I too wish everyone a Merry Christmas, though I'll probably be on before then. And of course assuming that Merry is still acceptable because of possible suggestion of inebriation, and that Christmas is still acceptable in our multicultural country despite the potential to offend somebody of a different faith/culture. Perhaps someone can enlighten me about the latest correct wording. Birmingham tried to replace Christmas with 'Winterval' a few years ago but that seems to have died away.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 22, 2023 5:50:01 GMT
I quite like winterval but will I think stick with the traditional happy Saturnalia
But it's been lucifer's own job to source the plump dormice and peacock this year.
I blame brexit.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 22, 2023 6:05:35 GMT
Over the last forty years the traitor has changed his stated opinion on nearly everything. But one thing's remained the same his admiration for brutal dictators. Here's an exert from Late night with Seth Meyers where Seth is totally on point. youtu.be/Gtj1p2DNnA8?si=bIA4B82cE-X1TTMW
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Dec 22, 2023 6:40:41 GMT
Lords reform suggestions
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Post by thylacine on Dec 22, 2023 7:18:51 GMT
I nevertheless wish all contributors and lurkers a happy Christmas and a peaceful and prosperous 2024. I too wish everyone a Merry Christmas, though I'll probably be on before then. And of course assuming that Merry is still acceptable because of possible suggestion of inebriation, and that Christmas is still acceptable in our multicultural country despite the potential to offend somebody of a different faith/culture. Perhaps someone can enlighten me about the latest correct wording. Birmingham tried to replace Christmas with 'Winterval' a few years ago but that seems to have died away. I believe the immigrant Anglic population of Mercia celebrated Yule and tended to despatch any indigenous Brit missionaries who wished them a merry Christmas with great zeal. Merry Christmas Mercian 🎄
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Post by alec on Dec 22, 2023 7:21:15 GMT
GDP downgraded for the last couple of quarters, placing us one quarter away from a technical recession.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Dec 22, 2023 7:44:18 GMT
GDP downgraded for the last couple of quarters, placing us one quarter away from a technical recession. Not good
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 22, 2023 7:48:50 GMT
On the US polling in general... Trump is still prohibitively dominant in the Republican primary polling. There's one poll that shows Haley only 15pts behind him in New Hampshire, but even that is solely at the expense of Ramaswamy and Christie, Trump's support remains solid. And outside of NH, no-one is making any impact at all, tho Haley is now tussling with DeSantis for "best of the rest" nationally, albeit with both 50 points behind Trump with only a month until the first voting. www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/2024_republican_presidential_nomination-7548.htmlOn the national picture, it's still basically tied between Trump and Biden. And historical comparisons are next to useless now - Biden's approval numbers are utterly dreadful by historical comparisons, but so are Trump's. And normally the incumbent President would have a big advantage over their main challenger in terms of national recognition at this stage but that's obviously not padding Biden's numbers here given who Trump is. The only elections we can sensibly compare to are 2016 and 2020 but even then... Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton, and criminally-indicted former-President Trump is not the drain-the-swamp guy of 2015-16 either. And Biden is four years older and much more scrutinised by his own side than he was in 2020. www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.htmlGood to see you returning to these pages, and I've always found your posts on US politics and presidential races particularly interesting and erudite. For those of us fascinated by both the country and its politics, we have much to look forward to next year. As for the current Republican state primary polling, Trump looks to be in a strong, maybe unassailable position, but I wonder if things might move quite quickly against him if one of his rival candidates gained some surprise momentum by picking up a state against the head. Is there scope for a Bill Clinton outsider run a la 1992? I'm not saying there is a Republican candidate of Clinton's status in the field, but primary elections are notoriously volatile and Trump is particularly vulnerable to game changing events erupting from the legal jungle in which he is enmeshed. I thought the poll Steve shared yesterday was interesting about the flakiness of Trumps's support amongst what I would call traditional centre right Republican voters. Primary elections bring out the hard core supporters whereas presidential elections are decided by how the centrist and moderate majority breaks Maybe the current Biden v Trump binary polls, this far out from the election, aren't quite yet revealing the nuances that, when push comes to shove, tend to show their decisive face. I'm intrigued too by the fact that the peak "drain the swamp guy" Trump couldn't even beat Clinton in the popular vote in the 2016 election!
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 22, 2023 7:59:55 GMT
Seasonal best wishes to all UKPR2ers from the northern edge of Mercia, looking out over the great plains of the orange folk of Cheshire.
As to 'Merry', my lovely sister Merilyn has lived with it all her life, along with ginger hair. Some people are given multiple pieces of wood in the shape of an ecks to bear.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2023 8:00:30 GMT
I nevertheless wish all contributors and lurkers a happy Christmas and a peaceful and prosperous 2024. Perhaps someone can enlighten me about the latest correct wording. Birmingham tried to replace Christmas with 'Winterval' a few years ago but that seems to have died away. No it didn't.....
This is the story of the evolution of a simple Christmas tale that wound up, poisonously, at the Mail and Melanie Phillips's door
How this happened makes for a fascinating story about the causes of bad journalism, the messages of irresponsible and paranoid church leaders, and badly informed, popularity-seeking politicians looking for a tabloid-friendly soundbite. The bad journalism started with the local newspaper that broke the "story" of Winterval on 8 November 1998 and travelled quickly through the national media. What is worrying is that the original story was so clearly completely untrue and contained clear statements from the council that demonstrated this.
So now, thanks to perhaps one repetition too far, the Daily Mail has finally admitted that Winterval is a media fiction. But what impact will those few lines of correction have compared with the huge body of journalism that has been repeating it for so long as fact? And, more important, will Melanie Phillips offer her own apology for repeating the myth?
And from the Daily Mail ...
We stated in an article on 26 September that Christmas has been renamed in various places Winterval.
Winterval was the collective name for a season of public events, both religious and secular, which took place in Birmingham in 1997 and 1998.
We are happy to make clear that Winterval did not rename or replace Christmas.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 22, 2023 8:02:19 GMT
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Post by moby on Dec 22, 2023 9:09:56 GMT
Surely a true Blue would have voted Remain? I was a supporter of Brexit for numerous reasons, but I can assure you I am no Tory. I think I've even admitted here that I voted once for the Lib Dems. If not a Tory, then either a Kipper or a Plaid supporter, the only other two parties for whom a majority of their supporters voted for Brexit. Geez I had no idea a majority of Plaid supporters voted for Brexit. I just don't understand the rationale behind that decision at all. Does anyone else have a clue?
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Post by EmCat on Dec 22, 2023 9:31:28 GMT
Some people are given multiple pieces of wood in the shape of an ecks to bear. Which reminds me of the seasonal joke: "Why do you call your teddy bear 'Gladly' ?" "Because his eyes weren't put on properly, so he has a squint" "I don't get it" "Never heard of 'Gladly my cross-eyes bear' ?" Appropriate seasonal greetings to one and all
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Post by EmCat on Dec 22, 2023 9:43:15 GMT
If not a Tory, then either a Kipper or a Plaid supporter, the only other two parties for whom a majority of their supporters voted for Brexit. Geez I had no idea a majority of Plaid supporters voted for Brexit. I just don't understand the rationale behind that decision at all. Does anyone else have a clue? I'm curious about the 2% of SNP supporters who voted neither Remain or Leave. Probably a strange confluence of figures resulting in a large rounding error. Unless it was the "I put a third box on the paper of 'Mebbes Aye, mebbes naw'. So you can't discount my opinion in the 'Didn't know or wouldn't say' category"
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Dec 22, 2023 9:45:22 GMT
Techne
NEW POLL: Labour leads by 20 points:
Lab: 43% (-1) Con: 23% (+1) Lib Dem: 11% (-1) Reform: 10% (+1) Green: 7% (=) SNP: 3% (=) Others: 3% (=)
1,646 questioned. +/- 13/14 December
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Dec 22, 2023 9:52:00 GMT
Great juxtaposition
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 22, 2023 10:27:53 GMT
Geez I had no idea a majority of Plaid supporters voted for Brexit. I just don't understand the rationale behind that decision at all. Does anyone else have a clue? Surely its amazing how few people in this data voted neither leave or remain, ie didnt vote? Only 70% of all voters did vote. It looks as though the data is not counting such people. The results are from 2016, to get this kind of result you might have first asked which way people voted, and then asked what their party affiliation was. So its quite possible for every party there should be a big chunk of undecideds, and the proportion might vary. It could be for example plaid supports true voting was more like 30% remain, 38% leave and 30% didnt vote. And then, as a party were they more or less likely than average to have boycotted the referendum?
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