pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Dec 22, 2023 10:59:20 GMT
Last local by-elections (tomorrow) until 11 January. Two should be easy Lib Dem holds, the other is more interesting; ISLE OF WIGHT UA; Ventnor & St Lawrence (Con resigned) Candidates: BLAKE, Ed (Conservative) COOPER, Steve (Labour) HARRINGTON-VAIL, Ray (Liberal Democrat) 2021: Con 328; Vectis 260; Lab 249; Our Island 178; Island Ind Network 171; Freedom All 38 It will be seen that in 2021 the voting was Con 26.8% (winner), Lab 20.3%, assorted 'others' 52.9%. With only the three major English parties standing this time there are a lot of unaffiliated votes up for grabs. The publicly available MRPs are suggesting Labour are likely to win both Isle of Wight parliamentary seats - which I don't believe given that Labour have just one councillor out of 39 on the IoW Council and no history of strength here. If the MRPs are right then Labour should take this seat (they have even picked a locally credible candidate). But my gut feeling is it will go Lib Dem. We shall see. LEICESTERSHIRE CC; Blaby & Glen Parva (Lib Dem resigned) Candidates: BADLAND, Laura (Labour) GRUNDY, Nigel (Conservative) JELFS, Mike (Green) JORDAN, Sue (Liberal Democrat) 2021: LD 1484; Con 1020; Lab 304; Grn 235 Should be simple Lib Dem hold. BLABY DC; Glen Parva (Lib Dem resigned) Candidates: BADLAND, Laura (Labour) BLACKWELL, Shane (Conservative) JELFS, Mike (Green) SAVAGE, Ande (Liberal Democrat) 2023: LD 681, 658; Con 279; Ind 264 Again easy Lib Dem hold to be expected. Results IoW Ventnor and St Lawrence - Con Hold Con 274 41.1% (+14.3) Lab 248 37.2% (+16.9) LD 145 21.7% (New) BLABY DC; Glen Parva Ward - Lib Dem hold Lib Dem, 438, 69.6%, +5.4% Cons, 140, 19.4%, -3.7% Lab, 102, 14.1%, (new) Grn, 43, 6.0% (new) Leics CC - Blaby and Gen Parva - Lib Dem hold Sue Jordan (LD) – 989 61.2% (+12.4) Nigel Grundy (Con) – 320 19.8% (-13.7) Laura Badland (Lab) – 190 11.8% (+1.8) Mike Jelfs (Grn) - 116 7.2% (-0.5)
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Dec 22, 2023 11:05:13 GMT
If not a Tory, then either a Kipper or a Plaid supporter, the only other two parties for whom a majority of their supporters voted for Brexit. Geez I had no idea a majority of Plaid supporters voted for Brexit. I just don't understand the rationale behind that decision at all. Does anyone else have a clue? Seemed weird to me too as we know Welsh speaking areas, especially Ceredigion and Gwynedd were far more remain voting than other parts of Wales, Cardiff excepting. One thing I noticed in Ceredigion earlier this year were a number of EU funding plaques clearly kept clean and maintained.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 22, 2023 11:14:40 GMT
Hmm. 1 in 50 people in London are homeless, 1 in 20 in some boroughs. Which doesnt necessarily mean they are on the streets, a lot are in 'temporary accommodation'.
Reasons include shortage of private sectors rental properties. Housing benefits having been frozen, so that they would only cover rent for 1 in 20 properties.
Spells in temporary accommodation can last for years. Typically such a thing is actually a private sector flat, but the council is paying the difference in rent between what is charged and what is covered by benefit. Which rather defeats the purpose of forcing down housing benefit. not to mention is making shortages of property worse. People in such accommodations can be asked to move at any time without notice, to anywhwere.
Apparently also London councils are competing with the home office for accommodation. And the Home office has a larger budget, so its outbidding councils for whatever accommodation might exist in their area.
Housing benefit levels were originally defined to cover 50% of rents in an area. Then this went to 30%. But now its frozen its more like 5%.
Councils are now seeing their 'risk' assessments of what might bankrupt thwm changing, so whereas it used to be social and care services, now it is a bill for housing over which they have no control. Some of this gets refunded by government, but apparently the more 'temporary', ie bed and breakfast, then the less the council gets refunded. So the worse the shortage of real accommodations gets, so their bill escalates.
Obviously the conservative government doesnt care if poor people can any longer afford to find accommodation for themselves. Is this rather akin to the Israeli reaction to Arabs in Gaza?
Is the plan for how to turn London more conservative simply to get rid of the poor? People may remember Dame Shirley porter was fined £36 million for deliberately manipulating housing stocks to encourage more conservative voters into her council area. This is of course a central government policy. So should Rishi get the blame and have to pay up?
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Post by leftieliberal on Dec 22, 2023 11:25:18 GMT
I loved this part of Rentoul's comment: The 26 Church of England bishops, however, will almost certainly stay: not least because a couple of dozen reliably leftish legislators is seen as preferable to a long debate over disestablishment or the prospect of appointing new peers from other faith groups.
As an Anglican, I would prefer disestablishment just to stop Prime Ministers choosing our Bishops. There is no other religion in the UK that is so subject to such political interference[1]. The Church of Scotland, which is the Established Church in that nation of the UK, doesn't have bishops, so does not have this problem. [1] The worst example of political interference was, not surprisingly, Margaret Thatcher, who was brought up as a Methodist.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 22, 2023 11:54:19 GMT
Just a thought, is there a reason an hereditary peer cannot also be given a life peerage and therfore becoming a voting member of the lords again?
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Post by alec on Dec 22, 2023 12:02:38 GMT
Labour will, I think, be happy with the year end polls. It really does seem like a done deal, and although I never say never with the polls, it's very hard to make a cogent case that Sunak can pull this out of the fire. Tories are doomed, with a pretty high degree of certainty, which is an outcome I flagged up as highly likely on the day after the 2019 election. Brexit was a mistake, and the method of Brexit turned that into a disaster, but it's more than just that. Securing government on the basis of a series of wild, contradictory and undeliverable promises is what populists do, and it always unravels.
Where I think Brexit has placed an enduring stain on the Conservative Party can be seen in the painful lack of talent on Conservative benches. This is a symptom of the post Brexit Battle for Purity, another feature of populists. Brexit could have been delivered in a manner that kept Conservative hopes alive, but to do that, they would have had to do this on the basis of their long held reputation for pragmatism and rejection of dogma. Instead, Brexit has been the catalyst that has ensured that it's dogma that drives the party.The short term effect of this has been to drive out any of the saner voices that could have turned the blue ship around, but handing the helm to a dwindling sect of hard faced puritanical maniacs has done for the party, now, and possibly for a very long time.
The country now just waits for the day when we can be freed from this ineptitude, this simplism, and we hope for better days. But such is the damage, that wait could be a long one.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 22, 2023 12:16:24 GMT
Interesting discussion on James O'Brien regarding the utter pointless policy of short term imprisonment.
Incarceration for any length of time doesn't impact re-offender rates other than to increase them but this is particularly ludicrous in relation to short sentences ( under a year) when an alternative non custodial remedy is almost always available.
People find themselves incarcerated for a few months, completely disrupting their lives, while others found guilty of the same crime receive a suspended sentence or community service order which unless in specific occupations doesn't interrupt work or housing arrangements.
Instead people's lives are turned upside down and they're exposed to habitual institutionalized criminals surprise surprise they're more likely to become one themselves.
This doesn't of course mean that people shouldn't be penalised for their criminal activities but the huge cost and failed outcome of imprisonment doesn't work.
Needless to say neither The Tories or Labour will admit that locking less people up not more for longer is the solution as the media would go into a rug biting rate about soft on crime so the pointless damaging merry go round of short custodial terms continues.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 22, 2023 12:18:58 GMT
Seasons greetings for that special case contributor
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Post by graham on Dec 22, 2023 12:29:25 GMT
Labour will, I think, be happy with the year end polls. It really does seem like a done deal, and although I never say never with the polls, it's very hard to make a cogent case that Sunak can pull this out of the fire. Tories are doomed, with a pretty high degree of certainty, which is an outcome I flagged up as highly likely on the day after the 2019 election. Brexit was a mistake, and the method of Brexit turned that into a disaster, but it's more than just that. Securing government on the basis of a series of wild, contradictory and undeliverable promises is what populists do, and it always unravels. Where I think Brexit has placed an enduring stain on the Conservative Party can be seen in the painful lack of talent on Conservative benches. This is a symptom of the post Brexit Battle for Purity, another feature of populists. Brexit could have been delivered in a manner that kept Conservative hopes alive, but to do that, they would have had to do this on the basis of their long held reputation for pragmatism and rejection of dogma. Instead, Brexit has been the catalyst that has ensured that it's dogma that drives the party.The short term effect of this has been to drive out any of the saner voices that could have turned the blue ship around, but handing the helm to a dwindling sect of hard faced puritanical maniacs has done for the party, now, and possibly for a very long time. The country now just waits for the day when we can be freed from this ineptitude, this simplism, and we hope for better days. But such is the damage, that wait could be a long one. I don't disagree really, but will add my note of caution yet again. In late August 1969 the Tories under Ted Heath still enjoyed a 15% lead in the polls over Labour. They went on to win the June 1970 GE - but only by 2.4% and the Tory victory came as a great shock.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 22, 2023 12:29:33 GMT
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 22, 2023 13:29:55 GMT
.Where I think Brexit has placed an enduring stain on the Conservative Party can be seen in the painful lack of talent on Conservative benches. This is a symptom of the post Brexit Battle for Purity, another feature of populists. Brexit could have been delivered in a manner that kept Conservative hopes alive, but to do that, they would have had to do this on the basis of their long held reputation for pragmatism and rejection of dogma. Instead, Brexit has been the catalyst that has ensured that it's dogma that drives the party.The short term effect of this has been to drive out any of the saner voices that could have turned the blue ship around, but handing the helm to a dwindling sect of hard faced puritanical maniacs has done for the party, now, and possibly for a very long time. There was a graph of GDP posted recently, which showed growth resuming after covid, but at a lower rate than before covid. Which in turn was lower than historical growth, eg in the last labour period. Forgetting for now about the trend being systematically lower under con than lab, there was a short period after the brexit decision, perhaps dating from the defenestration of May as it became clear there was no way to end up with a middle course brexit, where the same trend rate as now was visible, before covid caused a massive dip in GDP. If we ignore the dip, then it is arguable Brexit has caused a systemic cut in our attainable growth and that new trend began as soon as brexit was certain.
There is then only one way to rectify this, which is to reverse brexit, either piecemeal or whole. For con to stand up now and say, it looks like brexit was a terrible mistake, would to see them anihilated in the next election. potential third or fourth place territory. So its not a pragmatic option to say this is what has happened.
if you cannot go to the voters at this time and say what is truly wrong and how you might reverse it, just what is left? Its not the pragmatic choice at this point to ditch the leavers. That has to be done, yes, but at this point it would likely make matters a lot worse. Deflection seems to be the pragmatic choice, blame everyone else you can think of. Once in opposition, lab will have to deal with rejoining the EU, or suffer the economic cost of not doing so. Either way, once voters have got used to blaming lab for brexit, then con can switch to rejoin.
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Post by leftieliberal on Dec 22, 2023 14:10:50 GMT
Labour will, I think, be happy with the year end polls. It really does seem like a done deal, and although I never say never with the polls, it's very hard to make a cogent case that Sunak can pull this out of the fire. Tories are doomed, with a pretty high degree of certainty, which is an outcome I flagged up as highly likely on the day after the 2019 election. Brexit was a mistake, and the method of Brexit turned that into a disaster, but it's more than just that. Securing government on the basis of a series of wild, contradictory and undeliverable promises is what populists do, and it always unravels. Where I think Brexit has placed an enduring stain on the Conservative Party can be seen in the painful lack of talent on Conservative benches. This is a symptom of the post Brexit Battle for Purity, another feature of populists. Brexit could have been delivered in a manner that kept Conservative hopes alive, but to do that, they would have had to do this on the basis of their long held reputation for pragmatism and rejection of dogma. Instead, Brexit has been the catalyst that has ensured that it's dogma that drives the party.The short term effect of this has been to drive out any of the saner voices that could have turned the blue ship around, but handing the helm to a dwindling sect of hard faced puritanical maniacs has done for the party, now, and possibly for a very long time. The country now just waits for the day when we can be freed from this ineptitude, this simplism, and we hope for better days. But such is the damage, that wait could be a long one. I don't disagree really, but will add my note of caution yet again. In late August 1969 the Tories under Ted Heath still enjoyed a 15% lead in the polls over Labour. They went on to win the June 1970 GE - but only by 2.4% and the Tory victory came as a great shock. That's going to require some game-changing events (which obviously will be unexpected). If VI continues to swing back to the Tories as the same rate as it has for the last 12 months (1.9% on my average of seven regular pollsters (Deltapoll, Opinium, Redfield&Wilton, SavantaComRes, Techne, WeThink and YouGov)) we are still looking at a 16.7% lead twelve months from now. That represents what I think is the expected swing-back if there are no surprises. A 12.6% swing-back in 12 months will be VERY unlikely IMO, but as Harold Wilson memorably said "a week is a long time in politics".
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Post by leftieliberal on Dec 22, 2023 15:24:47 GMT
Why reducing inflation isn't benefiting the Tories: inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-pollsters-sunak-credit-inflation-2820768Chris Hopkins, director of Savanta, said: “Polling suggests voters don’t really credit the government with the drop in inflation, and that’s the key point really – the economy can improve, inflation can reduce, but a) people have to feel the benefit (they don’t) and b) they have to credit the government with that benefit (they don’t as yet).
“There needs to be way more good economic news before the public start rewarding the government in the polls, if they ever do.”
Conservative pollster Lord Hayward said there was “no question” the fall in inflation would have an impact in the polls, adding that “it is good news on the economy after months and years of inflation and the cost of living being the number one issue for the public at large”.
But he added: “It will have an impact but it will take time and it always depends on what other issues there are around.
“There is no question that it will have an effect, but it won’t be a marked effect. It will probably impact on Rishi’s ratings rather than the Conservative Party ratings first because personal ratings are more fluid and can go up and down more quickly.
“The Tory party does historically better on the economy. But it hasn’t in recent months and therefore this will help get its reputation back. It won’t end the problem by itself, but it helps get it back.”
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Post by mercian on Dec 22, 2023 16:50:58 GMT
I too wish everyone a Merry Christmas, though I'll probably be on before then. And of course assuming that Merry is still acceptable because of possible suggestion of inebriation, and that Christmas is still acceptable in our multicultural country despite the potential to offend somebody of a different faith/culture. Perhaps someone can enlighten me about the latest correct wording. Birmingham tried to replace Christmas with 'Winterval' a few years ago but that seems to have died away. I believe the immigrant Anglic population of Mercia celebrated Yule and tended to despatch any indigenous Brit missionaries who wished them a merry Christmas with great zeal. Merry Christmas Mercian 🎄 Only until about 700. I notice that Mercia's decline dates from around the same time.
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Post by mercian on Dec 22, 2023 17:01:48 GMT
Perhaps someone can enlighten me about the latest correct wording. Birmingham tried to replace Christmas with 'Winterval' a few years ago but that seems to have died away. No it didn't.....
...
And from the Daily Mail ...
We stated in an article on 26 September that Christmas has been renamed in various places Winterval.
Winterval was the collective name for a season of public events, both religious and secular, which took place in Birmingham in 1997 and 1998.
We are happy to make clear that Winterval did not rename or replace Christmas.
Well apparently it's still going in 2023 in Ireland of all places: www.winterval.ie/I quote: "Visit Santa at Winterval in Santa’s Gingerbread House". Funny, I always thought Santa was associated with Christmas, but now it's Winterval apparently.
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Post by mercian on Dec 22, 2023 17:07:36 GMT
Despising your fellow citizens seems common amongst lefties.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 22, 2023 17:14:11 GMT
"Despising your fellow citizens seems common amongst lefties." It seems standard operating procedure for the Sunakered regime to be honest. Attachment Deleted
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Dec 22, 2023 17:18:26 GMT
Despising your fellow citizens seems common amongst lefties. We can't all be as tolerant and loving of all our fellow citizens as you...
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Post by barbara on Dec 22, 2023 17:19:30 GMT
I nevertheless wish all contributors and lurkers a happy Christmas and a peaceful and prosperous 2024. I too wish everyone a Merry Christmas, though I'll probably be on before then. And of course assuming that Merry is still acceptable because of possible suggestion of inebriation, and that Christmas is still acceptable in our multicultural country despite the potential to offend somebody of a different faith/culture. Perhaps someone can enlighten me about the latest correct wording. Birmingham tried to replace Christmas with 'Winterval' a few years ago but that seems to have died away. No they did not ! It's ignorance like this that send people to vote UKIP and Reform. I can't believe still swallow lies like this. EDIT B- Lakeland lass said it better than I can. Thank you.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 22, 2023 17:23:35 GMT
mercianSanta Claus is said to live at the North Pole with his wife, where he spends the year making toys with the help of his elves. There he receives letters from children asking for Christmas gifts. On Christmas Eve he loads his sleigh with toys and flies around the world, drawn by eight reindeer, stopping at each child’s house, irrespective of rrligion; he slides down the chimney and leaves the gifts, refreshing himself with the milk and cookies left for him by the household’s children. This harmless fantasy doesn't seem to relate in any significant way to the Christian fantasy about a woman getting knocked up by an angel and stealing a donkey's feeding trough as a crib, other than being a handy date for gift producers to make more sales. Don't get me wrong I love all the Christmas gifts, decorations and other stuff but frankly as an individual from a Jewish and Muslim background married to a non practicing Roman Catholic it wouldn't really make any difference what it was called.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Dec 22, 2023 17:34:52 GMT
Despising your fellow citizens seems common amongst lefties. Only some of them 🙂
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 22, 2023 17:35:58 GMT
oh my, government announces that raised income level for granting a visa to immigrants will not come into effect until 2025, so after the election.
Thats have your cake and eat it? Do not further cut off the supply of staff for NHS and care services now, but leave that as another boobytrap for labour to deal with, since it will come into effect automatically after they take office, and will presumably have already put off potential staff who would have come in the early days of the next parliament. So NHS difficulties will be worse.
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Post by jib on Dec 22, 2023 17:39:07 GMT
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Dec 22, 2023 17:41:17 GMT
No it didn't.....
...
And from the Daily Mail ...
We stated in an article on 26 September that Christmas has been renamed in various places Winterval.
Winterval was the collective name for a season of public events, both religious and secular, which took place in Birmingham in 1997 and 1998.
We are happy to make clear that Winterval did not rename or replace Christmas.
Well apparently it's still going in 2023 in Ireland of all places: www.winterval.ie/I quote: "Visit Santa at Winterval in Santa’s Gingerbread House". Funny, I always thought Santa was associated with Christmas, but now it's Winterval apparently. It's just the name of the event or did you not notice 'Ireland's Christmas festival' immediately underneath it? Of course you did didn't you? By the way I understand Waterford this year (incidentally the city my mother in law hails from) is European city of Christmas so I don't think they've much to gain from dissing Christmas as a concept.. 'At Winterval' refers to (as you are no doubt disingenuously aware) the festival event, not a time of year as in 'at Christmas time' Either you're a bit dim or your post is attempting to deliberately mislead.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 22, 2023 17:43:55 GMT
It seems there is a problem with vetinary care. Prices are soaring, and this is being blamed on market consolidation. Vets are nowadays often merely fronts for big companies, which unsurprisingly are not competing with themselves on prices.
Its a lesson about allowing big companies to take over GP services, which is exactly what they are doing.
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Post by graham on Dec 22, 2023 18:04:44 GMT
The UN resolution seems very weak to the extent that it probably has little point. Why does the US continue to be so openly complicit with the war crimes of Netanyahu's Neo Fascist government? Netanyahu's Einzatsgruppen are effectively being encouraged to carry on with their slaughter .
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Dec 22, 2023 18:07:35 GMT
The Church of Scotland, which is the Established Church in that nation of the UK, doesn't have bishops, so does not have this problem. A common misconception. The Kirk was permitted by the 1921 Act to call itself the "National Church", but its complete freedom from interference by the state in its affairs allowed the reunion with the Free Kirk. Unlike England (or the practice in Scandinavian states where their "Established" churches are even more thoroughly state churches than in England), no Scots church has ever accepted such a relationship with the state. Hence, there was never a need to disestablish the Scots Kirk, as was the case in Ireland in 1869, or Wales in 1914.
I was a teenager before Christmas Day became a public holiday in Scotland - though there had been an increasing trend to adopt winter festival practices from other cultures (mainly USA and England - via film and radio), and add them to our own. Santa had to do a double trip to our bit of rural Aberdeenshire. Christmas for us, and other urban influenced families, but he had to come back on Ne'erday in the farmworkers' houses.
So, however and whenever, folk on here follow the primeval custom of celebrating as the winter solstice passes, and whether or not they choose to attach that to a religion, here's hoping that you all have a great celebration, and that your prospects over the coming lunar months are what you wish for (Tory MPs excepted).
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 22, 2023 18:08:31 GMT
jibHave you lost your nuts? Meanwhile the right wing media are losing their shit over Starmer looking the part in military clothing. Ignoring the blindingly obvious hypocrisy it's that he blended in with the military that really annoyed them. I'm not a great fan of politicians cos play but while Starmer looks like someone from the adjutant general office has dropped by for a visit, Spaffer looked like a oversized toddler in a dressing up outfit, Sunakered looks like he might have borrowed an adults clothes and Truss just looked like a twat. youtu.be/m2qMUJyXQv0?si=I7w5x0PxjTinoTwH
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Post by jib on Dec 22, 2023 18:16:02 GMT
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Post by alec on Dec 22, 2023 18:34:53 GMT
Danny - "Vets are nowadays often merely fronts for big companies..." Surely a mistake? Don't you mean 'VETS are nowadays often merely big fonts for companies..'?
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