neilj
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Posts: 5,988
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Post by neilj on Dec 21, 2023 18:06:47 GMT
Survation
NEW: Our final Westminster VI of 2023:
LAB 45 (+3) CON 28 (+2) LD 10 (-1) GRN 2 (-3) RFM 8 (+2) SNP 2 (-2) OTH 4 (-2)
F/w 15th - 18 December. Changes vs. 12th February 2023
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 21, 2023 18:07:34 GMT
"Just do a quick search on X if you don't believe me."
Because everything posted on Musk is obviously entirely accurate.
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domjg
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Posts: 5,106
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Post by domjg on Dec 21, 2023 18:17:26 GMT
@bretttrevalyan I get your point but Alec and Danny's engagement with each other rather dwarfs my responses to jib. I post a lot as you might have noticed I doubt more than 2% of the posts engage with jib, mind you half of theirs appear to relate to criticism of the junior partners in the coalition government of a decade ago and his perception that somehow they enabled the Brexit that he voted for. It does seem something of a unique obsession but if it floats his boat it's up to him. Obsession? I think I'm with the majority who've made up their mind regarding the midwives of austerity. Just do a quick search on X if you don't believe me. You just keep posting about your obsession with the Donald and dreaming of winning Cardiff Central, Southport and Brent. No chance mate! "Just do a quick search on X if you don't believe me" - Because that's soo representative Echo chamber much?
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 21, 2023 18:45:35 GMT
"dreaming of winning Cardiff Central"
Given that if the liberal democrats won Cardiff central we would be on for a 150 seat majority I think that's not actually on my wish list.
Is it Danny Alexander trolling you again?
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Post by isa on Dec 21, 2023 19:15:09 GMT
Survation NEW: Our final Westminster VI of 2023: LAB 45 (+3) CON 28 (+2) LD 10 (-1) GRN 2 (-3) RFM 8 (+2) SNP 2 (-2) OTH 4 (-2) F/w 15th - 18 December. Changes vs. 12th February 2023 Bit of an odd comparator date. Last February?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2023 19:22:33 GMT
@danny
“ Steve gets attacked because he is the only one really standing up for the libs, and neither lab or con supporters like that. Neither lab or con like criticism of the handling of the epidemic, while libs are more ambivalent.”
All untrue. (Will go back to my non- reading regime.)
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neilj
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Posts: 5,988
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Post by neilj on Dec 21, 2023 19:25:29 GMT
Survation NEW: Our final Westminster VI of 2023: LAB 45 (+3) CON 28 (+2) LD 10 (-1) GRN 2 (-3) RFM 8 (+2) SNP 2 (-2) OTH 4 (-2) F/w 15th - 18 December. Changes vs. 12th February 2023 Bit of an odd comparator date. Last February? Yes, not sure why they did that, most recent comparison here Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 45% (-1) CON: 28% (-1) LDM: 10% (=) RFM: 8% (+3) SNP: 2% (-1) GRN: 2% (-1) Via @survation , 15-18 Dec. Changes w/ 31 Oct - 3 Nov.
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Post by graham on Dec 21, 2023 19:35:58 GMT
Bit of an odd comparator date. Last February? Yes, not sure why they did that, most recent comparison here Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 45% (-1) CON: 28% (-1) LDM: 10% (=) RFM: 8% (+3) SNP: 2% (-1) GRN: 2% (-1) Via @survation , 15-18 Dec. Changes w/ 31 Oct - 3 Nov. That's a very low figure for the Greens . I have been cautious re- some of the poll ratings the party has recorded but would still expect a vote share of circa 3% in a GE. The SNP figure is also pretty low and would imply a vote share in Scotland no higher than 25%.
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Post by alec on Dec 21, 2023 19:46:09 GMT
Danny - "They dont look at all at anyone asymptomatic to see if they might have flu" And again, you display your ignorance. The flu survey is a random, panel based weekly survey of all ILI's, and there have been numerous time limited randomised data collection studies, based on pcr testing, for flu, rsv etc, which are published in the scientific media, and which capture asymptomatic spread also. So yes, we really do have very good quality, solid data, on how many people catch flu and other illnesses. In your ignorance, you fail to gather the evidence required to make a reasoned judgement. "It is pretty seldom I get an actual factual refutation of what I write. Its usually ad hominem attacks." In your imagination (which is pretty febrile) perhaps, but in reality, no. Various posters routinely dismantle your silly notions with a combination of fact and logic, but you're too invested in conspiracy theories to realise you're points have been completely stuffed. And when someone calls you 'stupid', that' not an ad hominem attack. Sometimes, people really do say stupid things.
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Post by alec on Dec 21, 2023 19:48:59 GMT
steve (and @brettrevelyan) "I get your point but Alec and Danny's engagement with each other rather dwarfs my responses to jib." I'd argue that my responses to Danny are generally brief, and frequently confined to the specialist threads. It's Danny's responses to me that tend to be lengthy, repetitive (often copied verbatim from the covid thread to the main thread, just in case they weren't noticed) and go on and on.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 21, 2023 19:51:22 GMT
@danny “ Steve gets attacked because he is the only one really standing up for the libs, and neither lab or con supporters like that. Neither lab or con like criticism of the handling of the epidemic, while libs are more ambivalent.” All untrue. (Will go back to my non- reading regime.) Are you psychic? How do you get the vibe which ones to pick up on?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 21, 2023 19:56:14 GMT
The SNP figure is also pretty low and would imply a vote share in Scotland no higher than 25%. [/div][/quote]yeah but overall accuracy is surely no more than 1 or 2 %. I expect rather worse. if its +-2%, then the spread is from zero votes to 4% and then half the votes in Scotland and a clean sweep? Thats between none and all the seats they are standing for? Similar conundrums apply to the percentages for all the small parties. Mainstream polling is really only designed to pick the winner.
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Dec 21, 2023 20:00:57 GMT
That's a very low figure for the Greens . I have been cautious re- some of the poll ratings the party has recorded but would still expect a vote share of circa 3% in a GE. The SNP figure is also pretty low and would imply a vote share in Scotland no higher than 25%.
Close. The tables show 23.9%, but since the Scots sample size was 80, and the margin of error consequently huge, you are correct not to assume that the % of the UK vote (meaningless anyway) shown has any meaning.
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Post by jib on Dec 21, 2023 20:34:50 GMT
"dreaming of winning Cardiff Central" Given that if the liberal democrats won Cardiff central we would be on for a 150 seat majority I think that's not actually on my wish list. Is it Danny Alexander trolling you again? That's kinda my point - where's your 50-60 seats coming from? Are you planning on a miracle result. You gave so, so much up in 2010. No coming back - you are shafted in so many constituencies you once held! Cardiff Central 2010 result; Party Candidate Votes % ±% Liberal Democrats Jenny Willott 14,976 41.4 −8.4Labour Jenny Rathbone 10,400 28.8 −5.5 Conservative Karen Robson 7,799 21.6 +12.4 Cardiff Central 2015 result; Labour Jo Stevens 15,462 40.0 +11.2 Liberal Democrats Jenny Willott 10,481 27.1 −14.3Conservative Richard Hopkin 5,674 14.7 −6.9 Cardiff Central 2019 result; Labour Jo Stevens 25,605 61.2 −1.2 Conservative Meirion Jenkins 8,426 20.1 +0.3 Liberal Democrats Bablin Molik 6,298 15.1 +1.7
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Post by alec on Dec 21, 2023 20:44:55 GMT
Not sure if this has been picked up here yet, but without any fanfare, the Home Office has just announced a huge climb down on their daft immigration policy of the £39,000 income to be allowed to bring a spouse into the country. It's now been dropped to £29,000.
That one lasted well, didn't it?
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,082
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Post by oldnat on Dec 21, 2023 20:59:34 GMT
Not sure if this has been picked up here yet, but without any fanfare, the Home Office has just announced a huge climb down on their daft immigration policy of the £39,000 income to be allowed to bring a spouse into the country. It's now been dropped to £29,000. That one lasted well, didn't it? I understand that the £39k number hasn't been abandoned - just postponed for an indeterminate period of time. One Tweeter noted that he felt like Yossarian in Catch 22 - just as he had managed to raise his income sufficiently to bring his intended to the UK, the C.O, raised the limit! If he can get up to £29k (not easy in the Northern Isles), the bastard will raise it again.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 21, 2023 20:59:56 GMT
At nearly £30,000 it still rules out half of spouses. jibCardiff central is 176 On the target list ! Not there is the blindingly obvious answer for 30-40 gains
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Post by jib on Dec 21, 2023 21:12:19 GMT
Southport 2010 result; Party Candidate Votes % ±% Liberal Democrats John Pugh 21,707 49.6 +3.3 Conservative Brenda Porter 15,683 35.8 ―1.2 Labour Jim Conalty 4,116 9.4 ―3.4
Southport 2015 result Liberal Democrats John Pugh 13,652 31.0 ―18.6 Conservative Damien Moore 12,330 28.0 ―7.8 Labour Liz Savage 8,468 19.2 +9.8
Southport 2017 result Conservative Damien Moore 18,541 38.7 +10.7 Labour Liz Savage 15,627 32.6 +13.4 Liberal Democrats Sue McGuire 12,661 26.4 ―4.6
Southport 2019 result Conservative Damien Moore 22,914 47.6 +8.9 Labour Liz Savage 18,767 39.0 +6.4 Liberal Democrats John Wright 6,499 13.5 ―12.9
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Post by jib on Dec 21, 2023 21:15:53 GMT
Brent Central South 2010 result; Party Candidate Votes % ±% Liberal Democrats Sarah Teather* 20,026 44.2 +13.1 Labour Dawn Butler** 18,681 41.2 -8.9 Conservative Sachin Rajput 5,068 11.2 -1.9
Brent Central 2015 result Labour Dawn Butler 29,216 62.1 +20.9 Conservative Alan Mendoza 9,567 20.3 +9.1 Liberal Democrats Lauren Keith 3,937 8.4 -35.8
Brent Central 2019 result Labour Dawn Butler 31,779 64.7 -8.4 Conservative David Brescia 10,909 22.2 +2.7 Liberal Democrats Deborah Unger 4,844 9.9 +5.0
Clearly you let a lot of people down here with your friends.
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Post by hireton on Dec 21, 2023 21:19:23 GMT
Not sure if this has been picked up here yet, but without any fanfare, the Home Office has just announced a huge climb down on their daft immigration policy of the £39,000 income to be allowed to bring a spouse into the country. It's now been dropped to £29,000. That one lasted well, didn't it? Are Labour still waiting to hear from the Migration Advisory Committee to decide whether they support the £38,000 spousal visa income requirement?
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Post by robbiealive on Dec 21, 2023 21:35:04 GMT
I like a good rant as much as the next lunatic, but JIB's vendetta against the Lib-Dems & their chief rep on here is bizarre. Clegg's decision to enter the Coalition & their hawkish support for austerity was misguided & the Lib-Dems paid the price in their electoral disaster in 2015. The despised Clegg squandered the painstaking gains made by Kennedy & his predecessors at Westminster & locally, received wisdom. Eg they lost every one of the 30 odd seats seat they had on the Manchester Council.
But (1) they did have some gd policies in the Coalition, eg, increasing personal tax threshholds, frozen for eternity since 2021. (2) They prevented a Ref on Brexit, that other disaster. which JIB supported. (3). They will gain seats in 2024. How many? Who knows? (4) If it made sense for me to vote Lib-Dem tactically I would probably do so, with reservations. (5) Did "I-don't-like-the-cut-of-yr-JIB-sir! (**) vote for austerity in 2010? Why does he rave against the Lib-Dems for things that were mainly his party's fault. Is he going to vote Tory in the next election?
(**) For younger readers - if there are any -- JIB refers to a sail carried by hostile ships.
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Post by graham on Dec 21, 2023 21:42:07 GMT
Vince Cable as Acting LibDem leader supported a Referendum on EU membership as early as 2007. 'In 2007 Vince Cable, who at the time was acting party leader, wrote that the Liberal Democrats wanted to table a motion in parliament calling for “for a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union”. The party then published a leaflet which has been dated to around 2008 saying it wanted a referendum, that the Labour party did not, and that the Conservatives only wanted a “limited” referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. The leaflet also said that the Liberal Democrats would campaign to remain in any such referendum. In 2008 then-party leader Nick Clegg was quoted in the Guardian saying it was time for a referendum: “Nobody in this country under the age of 51 has ever been asked that simple question. That includes half of all MPs. We've been signed up to Europe by default: two generations who have never had their say.” He also confirmed in the article that he was pro-EU.'
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2023 21:42:21 GMT
I like a good rant as much as the next lunatic, but JIB's vendetta against the Lib-Dems & their chief rep on here is bizarre. Clegg's decision to enter the Coalition & their hawkish support for austerity was misguided & the Lib-Dems paid the price in their electoral disaster in 2015. The despised Clegg squandered the painstaking gains made by Kennedy & his predecessors at Westminster & locally, received wisdom. Eg they lost every one of the 30 odd seats seat they had on the Manchester Council. But (1) they did have some gd policies in the Coalition, eg, increasing personal tax threshholds, frozen for eternity since 2021. (2) They prevented a Ref on Brexit, that other disaster. which JIB supported. (3). They will gain seats in 2024. How many? Who knows? (4) If it made sense for me to vote Lib-Dem tactically I would probably do so, with reservations. (5) Did "I-don't-like-the-cut-of-yr-JIB-sir! (**) vote for austerity in 2010? Why does he rave against the Lib-Dems for things that were mainly his party's fault. Is he going to vote Tory in the next election? (**) For younger readers - if there are any -- JIB refers to a sail carried by hostile ships. I think he is what is generally known as a loony. (No offence to loonies.)
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Post by jib on Dec 21, 2023 21:58:22 GMT
I like a good rant as much as the next lunatic, but JIB's vendetta against the Lib-Dems & their chief rep on here is bizarre. Clegg's decision to enter the Coalition & their hawkish support for austerity was misguided & the Lib-Dems paid the price in their electoral disaster in 2015. The despised Clegg squandered the painstaking gains made by Kennedy & his predecessors at Westminster & locally, received wisdom. Eg they lost every one of the 30 odd seats seat they had on the Manchester Council. But (1) they did have some gd policies in the Coalition, eg, increasing personal tax threshholds, frozen for eternity since 2021. (2) They prevented a Ref on Brexit, that other disaster. which JIB supported. (3). They will gain seats in 2024. How many? Who knows? (4) If it made sense for me to vote Lib-Dem tactically I would probably do so, with reservations. (5) Did "I-don't-like-the-cut-of-yr-JIB-sir! (**) vote for austerity in 2010? Why does he rave against the Lib-Dems for things that were mainly his party's fault. Is he going to vote Tory in the next election? (**) For younger readers - if there are any -- JIB refers to a sail carried by hostile ships. I think he is what is generally known as a loony. (No offence to loonies.) Oh do give up you senile old fart. I'm just illustrating what an uphill battle the Lib Dems face vs FPTP constituencies. They genuinely had a shot at the big time after good performances through 2005, then 2010. They pis**ed it all away with their dalliance with the Tories.
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Post by robbiealive on Dec 21, 2023 22:06:07 GMT
Not sure if this has been picked up here yet, but without any fanfare, the Home Office has just announced a huge climb down on their daft immigration policy of the £39,000 income to be allowed to bring a spouse into the country. It's now been dropped to £29,000. That one lasted well, didn't it? I understand that the £39k number hasn't been abandoned - just postponed for an indeterminate period of time. One Tweeter noted that he felt like Yossarian in Catch 22 - just as he had managed to raise his income sufficiently to bring his intended to the UK, the C.O, raised the limit! If he can get up to £29k (not easy in the Northern Isles), the bastard will raise it again.Catch-22 referred to the only grounds for being grounded - insanity. It was insane to fly more missions, but you had to be sane to recognise this, and hence had to keep on flying. I loved that book when I was 20 as so many did, but years later I found it turgid, laboured & actually unreadable. This is the price one pays for staying alive. Tho the awful scene which haunts Yossarian, the book's central thread, his opening the injured Snowden's flying jacket to discover the full horror, also haunts the reader. It's a brilliant eg of the way in which people worn down by combat stress go over the edge.
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Post by robbiealive on Dec 21, 2023 22:21:27 GMT
Vince Cable as Acting LibDem leader supported a Referendum on EU membership as early as 2007. 'In 2007 Vince Cable, who at the time was acting party leader, wrote that the Liberal Democrats wanted to table a motion in parliament calling for “for a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union”. The party then published a leaflet which has been dated to around 2008 saying it wanted a referendum, that the Labour party did not, and that the Conservatives only wanted a “limited” referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. The leaflet also said that the Liberal Democrats would campaign to remain in any such referendum. In 2008 then-party leader Nick Clegg was quoted in the Guardian saying it was time for a referendum: “Nobody in this country under the age of 51 has ever been asked that simple question. That includes half of all MPs. We've been signed up to Europe by default: two generations who have never had their say.” He also confirmed in the article that he was pro-EU.' Thanks. Wasn't there an admendment to a bill by Tory rebels during the Coalition to hold an EU ref, which the Lib-Dems helped vote down? In effect, they agreed with their coalition partners that such a Ref was off the table?
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Post by robbiealive on Dec 21, 2023 22:31:53 GMT
I think he is what is generally known as a loony. (No offence to loonies.) Oh do give up you senile old fart. I'm just illustrating what an uphill battle the Lib Dems face vs FPTP constituencies. They genuinely had a shot at the big time after good performances through 2005, then 2010. They pis**ed it all away with their dalliance with the Tories. I don't know whether it's me or Crofty who is senile. But under Catch-22 rules if I am accused of mental deficiency by a lunatic, then I must be sane or mentally competent? I still don't get it. If JIB is a Tory supporter then he should be pleased the Lib-Dems backed the coalition & enabled the Tories, through the ensuing loss of Lib-Dem seats, to win in 2015. If he isn't then he was a non-partisan supporter of Brexit? I think it's 3 strikes and you're out for me. Four in fact.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,374
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Post by pjw1961 on Dec 21, 2023 22:33:26 GMT
Vince Cable as Acting LibDem leader supported a Referendum on EU membership as early as 2007. 'In 2007 Vince Cable, who at the time was acting party leader, wrote that the Liberal Democrats wanted to table a motion in parliament calling for “for a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union”. The party then published a leaflet which has been dated to around 2008 saying it wanted a referendum, that the Labour party did not, and that the Conservatives only wanted a “limited” referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. The leaflet also said that the Liberal Democrats would campaign to remain in any such referendum. In 2008 then-party leader Nick Clegg was quoted in the Guardian saying it was time for a referendum: “Nobody in this country under the age of 51 has ever been asked that simple question. That includes half of all MPs. We've been signed up to Europe by default: two generations who have never had their say.” He also confirmed in the article that he was pro-EU.' Thanks. Wasn't there an admendment to a bill by Tory rebels during the Coalition to hold an EU ref, which the Lib-Dems helped vote down? In effect, they agreed with their coalition partners that such a Ref was off the table? The Lib Dems had an EU referendum in their 2015 manifesto, as did the Conservatives and (obviously) UKIP. The only significant GB wide party that did not was Labour - another thing the much maligned Ed Miliband got right.
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Post by alec on Dec 21, 2023 22:38:49 GMT
robbiealive - "For younger readers - if there are any -- JIB refers to a sail carried by hostile ships." There's call for @fecklessmiser to adjudicate I think, as I'm going to raise a Christmas Quibble on the mainsail. Technically, a jib is merely a sail attached to the foremast and the bowsprit or deck in front of the foremast. The expression 'don't like the cut of your jib' was derived from the fact that the shape and arrangement of the jib was often sufficient to denote the nationality of an approaching vessel, and hence it's threat or otherwise. But the jib itself is just a sail, carried by friend and foe alike. Work that one out, Crofty.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2023 22:44:21 GMT
robbiealive - "For younger readers - if there are any -- JIB refers to a sail carried by hostile ships." There's call for @fecklessmiser to adjudicate I think, as I'm going to raise a Christmas Quibble on the mainsail. Technically, a jib is merely a sail attached to the foremast and the bowsprit or deck in front of the foremast. The expression 'don't like the cut of your jib' was derived from the fact that the shape and arrangement of the jib was often sufficient to denote the nationality of an approaching vessel, and hence it's threat or otherwise. But the jib itself is just a sail, carried by friend and foe alike. Work that one out, Crofty. I’d rather not, I don’t like getting wet.
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