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Post by leftieliberal on Dec 18, 2023 13:48:29 GMT
LL, to be fair to the SNP they are not responsible for the ridiculous allowance withdrawal. Even now an effective marginal rate of 62% (NI 2% of that) applies at £100k. Understandably, people on £100K won't get much sympathy but it is the 42% to £62% to 47% transition that is unfair. Much better simplify and make the rate 50% from £100K as much of the loss from the £100-125 earners will be made up from even highers earners. NB) I know the withdrawal starts at £101K ish and I haven't crunched the numbers (and don't have access of course) so 50% from £100K is just a notional start point for me not a firm position. Child benefit withdrawal is similarly inequitable and should be addressed but not as a priority Yes, I agree about the personal allowance withdrawal, but it is there and when Governments choose to change tax rates they need to take account of behavioural changes as a result. Because the 55% tax on pension contributions was only on a small part of income, this extra 7.5% might have a similar behavioural effect. It would be tragic if waiting lists in Scotland got longer simply because doctors decided to work fewer hours.
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Post by leftieliberal on Dec 18, 2023 13:59:16 GMT
Birdseye: "For the last 90 months there have been net outflows of british investment money totalling 45bn. UK shares in british pensions have fallen from 53% some 25 years ago to a miserable 6% now. Private holdings of UK shares have fallen from 54% in 1963 to 15% now. Or to put it all another way, we Brits see better investment opportunities outside the UK than in it." 90 months is 7 years 6 months which, magically, takes us back to June 2016. I won't use the tired "Hmm, what happened back then?" line, but just point out that we're talking post-brexit referendum and a decline in the attractiveness of the UK to investors. The trouble with what ought to be killer info like this, is that it doesn't impinge on public consciousness unless it hits the news agenda. And it doesn't suit the agenda-setting 80% of the press that agitated for brexit to draw attention to bad brexit news. But, surely, low-hanging fruit for Labour to grab? No, they're too timid by half. So virtually nobody knows about it. The result is that people like Mercian can get away with the "I haven't noticed any problems" line. The UK's general complacency reminds me of the Empire State jumper who was aked how things were going, half way down. "Fine, so far." If you look at the FTSE 100 index, which is the index of the 100 largest companies registered on the London Stock Exchange, it was just under 7000 at the end of 1999. It is today just over 7600 and its highest since 1999 has been just over 7700. Compare the USA's Dow Jones index it is on 37,305 today; in 1999 it closed at 11,497. In this instance birdseye is quite right; British registered companies have not been a good investment for the last quarter of a century.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 18, 2023 14:03:28 GMT
Well of course, inflation was hammering wage packets. Even before the oil crisis and barber boom, it hit 9% a couple of years earlier due to devaluations etc. Then you got swingeing rises in the oil crisis on top 18%, 25%, wage packets were getting trashed. But the right focus on industrial discontent and the need to tame those unions, but are strangely silent when it’s unions like teachers and doctors striking Whilst inflation had fallen sharply by that time - compared with the mid-70s - it was still in high single figures, and workers resented being asked by Callaghan to restrict wage increases to 5%. It showed poor political judgement to be advocating such a line in the run-up to an election due within a few months - and adds to the sense of poor political 'nous' in delaying that election in September 1978. The pay policy began to fall apart with the Ford Motor strike in the late Autumn which then fed in to the Winter of Discontent a few weeks later at the very end of that year. Thought I would add a bit more to that part of your post, which is an important issue. I’ve read before that Wilson joked about being in charge of a load of social democrats rather than lefties or something - it was also said that Wilson wasn’t that far off being a social democrat himself if I recall correctly? But you can see that it’s possible that as a result, their instinct was to see the workers as the problem, who needed taming with pay restraint and related agreements. But the real problem was right-wing economic policy. Leaving energy too much to the markets, to global supply, to not having enough commodity buffers/oil storage, and when the consequences of that became apparent, going for pay restraint rather than energy subsidy. For a while after we lucked out with North Sea oil, and migrated to gas, but this was only a temporary fix, and so we found ourself in a similar bind this time: energy left to the markets, inflation as a result, not enough energy storage, but instead of as much pay restraint we went a bit more for energy subsidy, and now it’s a rush to secure more of our own supply. In the end, Labour in the Seventies were too right-wing in terms of that economic policy, though the migration from coal to oil that contributed to the problem began some time before.
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Post by expatr on Dec 18, 2023 14:13:41 GMT
This is right up there with the Mail attacking Starmer for buying a field so his disabled mum could set up a donkey sanctuary Given this and today's front page both being spectacular examples of Mailisms backfiring - have we reached a point where the staff are starting to troll Dacre et al - if so we really have reached a tipping point
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Post by johntel on Dec 18, 2023 14:43:52 GMT
I am naturally suspicious as to how much big earners actually pay in tax. Let's remember Sunak paid on average just 22% on income of around £5m The Tax system needs simplifying to prevent such legal tax avoidance Perhaps if we did that we could reduce tax rates for everyone neilj I don't think it's so simple unfortunately. For example those 'legal tax avoidance' schemes are things like tax relief on charitable giving and SEIS/EIS investment (which is a major source of funding for start-up and expanding companies).
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Post by Rafwan on Dec 18, 2023 14:46:03 GMT
Birdseye: "For the last 90 months there have been net outflows of british investment money totalling 45bn. UK shares in british pensions have fallen from 53% some 25 years ago to a miserable 6% now. Private holdings of UK shares have fallen from 54% in 1963 to 15% now. Or to put it all another way, we Brits see better investment opportunities outside the UK than in it." 90 months is 7 years 6 months which, magically, takes us back to June 2016. I won't use the tired "Hmm, what happened back then?" line, but just point out that we're talking post-brexit referendum and a decline in the attractiveness of the UK to investors. The trouble with what ought to be killer info like this, is that it doesn't impinge on public consciousness unless it hits the news agenda. And it doesn't suit the agenda-setting 80% of the press that agitated for brexit to draw attention to bad brexit news. But, surely, low-hanging fruit for Labour to grab? No, they're too timid by half. So virtually nobody knows about it. The result is that people like Mercian can get away with the "I haven't noticed any problems" line. The UK's general complacency reminds me of the Empire State jumper who was aked how things were going, half way down. "Fine, so far." If you look at the FTSE 100 index, which is the index of the 100 largest companies registered on the London Stock Exchange, it was just under 7000 at the end of 1999. It is today just over 7600 and its highest since 1999 has been just over 7700. Compare the USA's Dow Jones index it is on 37,305 today; in 1999 it closed at 11,497. In this instance birdseye is quite right; British registered companies have not been a good investment for the last quarter of a century. I am no expert in these matters, but haven’t British investors been getting great returns through dividends (rather than added value)?
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Dec 18, 2023 14:49:13 GMT
Those who believe that abandoning centrist voters and offering an extreme policy platform is a sure fire election winner, will be interested to know the 'New Conservatives' agree with them. This from the Guardian:
"Tories will lose next election unless they commit to leaving ECHR, New Conservative co-chairs say. The Tories will lose the next election unless they commit to leaving the European convention on human rights, the leaders of the rightwing New Conservatives group have said. Danny Kruger and Miriam Cates are co-chairs of the New Conservatives group, which represents Tory MPs pushing for less immigration, lower taxes and socially conservative family policies. In an interview with the Inside Whitehall podcast, which is hosted by Jonathan Gullis MP (a member of the New Conservatives) and James Starkie, a former Tory special adviser, they were asked if the next leader of the party would come from their group.
Kruger replied: I think they will be New Conservative in philosophy; whether they are one of our current members or not. I don’t think we will ever get back into power if we go out of power. And frankly I think we are going to struggle at the next election without this [the New Conservative policy approach] as well. So I think the next election we win will be one in which we are standing to leave the ECHR (European convention on human rights), to restore sanity, quite deliberately, in these culture questions, particularly around sex and gender, and also around what goes on in schools.
Kruger also said that other new policy approaches were needed to make the party electorally attractive. He went on: I would see us investing much more in defence. I think we’ve got to be much more realistic about what technology means for the world of work and for ordinary family life. There is a bunch of stuff that is off the radar at the moment, outside the Overton window in our politics, that we need to just get real about. And if we can do it this side of the election, I think we’ve got a really good chance of holding on. If we go out, yes, in answer to your question, it would have to be someone who believes in this stuff if we were ever to win power again. Because there is no point just trying to contest the centre ground with Labour. Asked if she agreed with Kruger’s assessment, Cates simply replied: “Yes.”"
So there we have it. The route to Tory triumph is to give Labour the entire centre and most of the left voters and disappear down a right wing rabbit hole. I sincerely hope that's what they do in opposition.
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Post by johntel on Dec 18, 2023 14:50:21 GMT
If you look at the FTSE 100 index, which is the index of the 100 largest companies registered on the London Stock Exchange, it was just under 7000 at the end of 1999. It is today just over 7600 and its highest since 1999 has been just over 7700. Compare the USA's Dow Jones index it is on 37,305 today; in 1999 it closed at 11,497. In this instance birdseye is quite right; British registered companies have not been a good investment for the last quarter of a century. I am no expert in these matters, but haven’t British investors been getting great returns through dividends (rather than added value)? Over the long run the FTSE 100 has been yielding about 6% - 3% of capital growth and 3% of income.
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Post by leftieliberal on Dec 18, 2023 14:57:13 GMT
So there we have it. The route to Tory triumph is to give Labour the entire centre and most of the left voters and disappear down a right wing rabbit hole. I sincerely hope that's what they do in opposition. Well it is pretty much what they did with Hague and Duncan-Smith as leaders. You had a slight improvement with Howard (although no let-up on the nastiness) before they finally realised and chose "hug a hoodie" Cameron over Davis (although Davis looks quite moderate now in comparison with the post-Cameron PMs).
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Post by leftieliberal on Dec 18, 2023 15:05:38 GMT
I am no expert in these matters, but haven’t British investors been getting great returns through dividends (rather than added value)? Over the long run the FTSE 100 has been yielding about 6% - 3% of capital growth and 3% of income. That's heavily weighted by the the returns in the early years after 1984.Since 1984 price 5.3% p.a. total 7.4% p.a. Since 2012 price 2.4% p.a. total 6.3% p.a. Since 2017 price -0.6% p.a. total 3.2% p.a. It's obvious that things have gone from bad to worse.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Dec 18, 2023 15:33:48 GMT
Those who believe that abandoning centrist voters and offering an extreme policy platform is a sure fire election winner, will be interested to know the 'New Conservatives' agree with them. This from the Guardian: "Tories will lose next election unless they commit to leaving ECHR, New Conservative co-chairs say. The Tories will lose the next election unless they commit to leaving the European convention on human rights, the leaders of the rightwing New Conservatives group have said. Danny Kruger and Miriam Cates are co-chairs of the New Conservatives group, which represents Tory MPs pushing for less immigration, lower taxes and socially conservative family policies. In an interview with the Inside Whitehall podcast, which is hosted by Jonathan Gullis MP (a member of the New Conservatives) and James Starkie, a former Tory special adviser, they were asked if the next leader of the party would come from their group. Kruger replied: I think they will be New Conservative in philosophy; whether they are one of our current members or not. I don’t think we will ever get back into power if we go out of power. And frankly I think we are going to struggle at the next election without this [the New Conservative policy approach] as well. So I think the next election we win will be one in which we are standing to leave the ECHR (European convention on human rights), to restore sanity, quite deliberately, in these culture questions, particularly around sex and gender, and also around what goes on in schools. Kruger also said that other new policy approaches were needed to make the party electorally attractive. He went on: I would see us investing much more in defence. I think we’ve got to be much more realistic about what technology means for the world of work and for ordinary family life. There is a bunch of stuff that is off the radar at the moment, outside the Overton window in our politics, that we need to just get real about. And if we can do it this side of the election, I think we’ve got a really good chance of holding on. If we go out, yes, in answer to your question, it would have to be someone who believes in this stuff if we were ever to win power again. Because there is no point just trying to contest the centre ground with Labour. Asked if she agreed with Kruger’s assessment, Cates simply replied: “Yes.”" So there we have it. The route to Tory triumph is to give Labour the entire centre and most of the left voters and disappear down a right wing rabbit hole. I sincerely hope that's what they do in opposition. It is frankly ludicrous as gestures go I grant you but I no longer watch the Great British Bake Off, which in previous years I've casually watched as a bit of autumnal pap as Prue Leith gave that Kruger creature to the world.
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 18, 2023 15:36:36 GMT
Be scared. Be very scared.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Dec 18, 2023 15:44:43 GMT
So there we have it. The route to Tory triumph is to give Labour the entire centre and most of the left voters and disappear down a right wing rabbit hole. I sincerely hope that's what they do in opposition. Well it is pretty much what they did with Hague and Duncan-Smith as leaders. You had a slight improvement with Howard (although no let-up on the nastiness) before they finally realised and chose "hug a hoodie" Cameron over Davis (although Davis looks quite moderate now in comparison with the post-Cameron PMs). I suspect (and fear) that 'Are you thinking what we're thinking' is as absolutely nothing compared to the maga-esque horrors likely to emanate from a tory party in opposition from next year.
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Post by wb61 on Dec 18, 2023 15:52:06 GMT
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Post by isa on Dec 18, 2023 15:55:30 GMT
Baroness Mone, (by name and by nature, it would appear), hits back following criticism from Sunak about her little local difficulty with PPE. This could get quite interesting in the coming days as the Blame Game cranks up. Apologies if it appears behind a paywall. It didn't for me, though. www.spectator.co.uk/article/michelle-mone-hits-back-at-sunak/
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 18, 2023 16:03:18 GMT
If we assume, which I think we're perfectly entitled to, that mutual loathing masked by utterly fake bonhomie is the currency of Tory politics, then I suppose we shouldn't be at all surprised that Baroness Mone and her husband have gone full Tonto Cummings and are now trying to drag a variety of Tory politicians down with them. Sunak included now by the sound of it:- www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/dec/18/michelle-mone-hits-out-rishi-sunak-ppe-dealsIn some respects this is a hilarious spectacle and should speed the current Government's descent down the political plughole, but it reminds me again of the point I raised the other day. This isn't some political satire or soap opera, this is a glimpse into the soul of our governing party. The party that has almost unbridled control of the affairs of state and our national prospects. As John Harris observed on his recent doleful rail journey, this squalid claque of bickering ne'r be goods and chancers are indulging in ever more eccentric absurdities as a broken country looks on, despairingly concluding that there may well be another 12 months of this to come. "The Revenge of Baroness Mone" may well be the title of a future and yet unwritten David Hare play that documents and dramatises these last 14 years of disastrous misgovernance. Actually, thinking about it, maybe "Carry on Westminster" might be a better idea.
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Post by isa on Dec 18, 2023 16:07:46 GMT
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Post by johntel on Dec 18, 2023 16:10:27 GMT
Well yes, investing in the stock market is a risky business in the short term. If you piled in in 2020 then you're sitting on a big profit already. It's all about timing - which is just luck really. But if you drip feed over 20 years you're pretty much guaranteed a decent return, unless you decide to cash in the day after a crash.
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 18, 2023 16:16:19 GMT
As ever, isa, we are lockstep and as one! 😇😅
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Post by Rafwan on Dec 18, 2023 16:21:22 GMT
Well yes, investing in the stock market is a risky business in the short term. If you piled in in 2020 then you're sitting on a big profit already. It's all about timing - which is just luck really. But if you drip feed over 20 years you're pretty much guaranteed a decent return, unless you decide to cash in the day after a crash. I If you include all returns, though, is Dow Jones that much “better” than FTSE?
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 18, 2023 16:33:20 GMT
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Dec 18, 2023 16:43:56 GMT
If we assume, which I think we're perfectly entitled to, that mutual loathing masked by utterly fake bonhomie is the currency of Tory politics, then I suppose we shouldn't be at all surprised that Baroness Mone and her husband have gone full Tonto Cummings and are now trying to drag a variety of Tory politicians down with them. Sunak included now by the sound of it:- www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/dec/18/michelle-mone-hits-out-rishi-sunak-ppe-dealsIn some respects this is a hilarious spectacle and should speed the current Government's descent down the political plughole, but it reminds me again of the point I raised the other day. This isn't some political satire or soap opera, this is a glimpse into the soul of our governing party. The party that has almost unbridled control of the affairs of state and our national prospects. As John Harris observed on his recent doleful rail journey, this squalid claque of bickering ne'r be goods and chancers are indulging in ever more eccentric absurdities as a broken country looks on, despairingly concluding that there may well be another 12 months of this to come. "The Revenge of Baroness Mone" may well be the title of a future and yet unwritten David Hare play that documents and dramatises these last 14 years of disastrous misgovernance. Actually, thinking about it, maybe "Carry on Westminster" might be a better idea. To be fair "mutual loathing masked by utterly fake bonhomie" is certainly not confined to the Conservative Party!
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Dec 18, 2023 16:51:15 GMT
Well it is pretty much what they did with Hague and Duncan-Smith as leaders. You had a slight improvement with Howard (although no let-up on the nastiness) before they finally realised and chose "hug a hoodie" Cameron over Davis (although Davis looks quite moderate now in comparison with the post-Cameron PMs). I suspect (and fear) that 'Are you thinking what we're thinking' is as absolutely nothing compared to the maga-esque horrors likely to emanate from a tory party in opposition from next year. The electorate may help out: Gullis - Stoke on Trent North, majority 6,286 Cates - Penistone and Stockbridge, majority 7,210 Kruger (Devizes), is a bit more of a stretch - majority almost 24,000
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Dec 18, 2023 16:58:27 GMT
To be fair "mutual loathing masked by utterly fake bonhomie" is certainly not confined to the Conservative Party! .... agreed, but they are wayyyyy ahead of the field.
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 18, 2023 16:58:40 GMT
In need of updating, although I think the overall picture would remain the same,, but an interesting table comparing the relative performance of leading stock markets around the world over the first seven months of 2023. It shows the FTSE performing worse than all of the leading economies over that period apart from Hong Kong. Substantially worse in most cases too when compared to the US, Spain, France, Germany Italy etc. Attachment Deleted
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Post by isa on Dec 18, 2023 17:24:30 GMT
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Dec 18, 2023 17:29:28 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 18, 2023 17:40:33 GMT
Kruger (Devizes), is a bit more of a stretch - majority almost 24,000
Just a 24% swing needed for the home team, no problem☺
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Post by EmCat on Dec 18, 2023 18:08:28 GMT
"Tories will lose next election unless they commit to leaving ECHR, New Conservative co-chairs say. The Tories will lose the next election unless they commit to leaving the European convention on human rights, the leaders of the rightwing New Conservatives group have said. Danny Kruger and Miriam Cates are co-chairs of the New Conservatives group, which represents Tory MPs pushing for less immigration, lower taxes and socially conservative family policies. In an interview with the Inside Whitehall podcast, which is hosted by Jonathan Gullis MP (a member of the New Conservatives) and James Starkie, a former Tory special adviser, they were asked if the next leader of the party would come from their group. Kruger replied: I think they will be New Conservative in philosophy; whether they are one of our current members or not. I don’t think we will ever get back into power if we go out of power. " That's either some refreshing honesty on their chances (the general public really don't think we should ever be given the reins of power), or a veiled threat to make sure they never lose. Whether that "never lose" is to go down the US style gerrymandered approach, or simply never to have an election*, remains to be seen. And even if there is an election, then they have already set out their stall with the groups to be targeted - "socially conservative family policies" means they are quite happy to abandon all equality legislation for the last 60 years, if it means that women are obliged to return to the kitchen** * The current Rwanda bill going through parliament already wants to legislate "This is so because we say it is, whether or not it is true". Which is one way of legislating against an election ("There is no need for an election because we say there isn't") ** and 'Bake Off' doesn't really count as a kitchen
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Post by johntel on Dec 18, 2023 18:19:47 GMT
In need of updating, although I think the overall picture would remain the same,, but an interesting table comparing the relative performance of leading stock markets around the world over the first seven months of 2023. It shows the FTSE performing worse than all of the leading economies over that period apart from Hong Kong. Substantially worse in most cases too when compared to the US, Spain, France, Germany Italy etc. View AttachmentActually over time the FTSE index is only loosely correlated with the UK economy because it's packed with international companies and tends to react to the global economy and the strength of the dollar because most international earnings are priced in dollars.
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