18-OCT 2023 : LAB 44% / CON 28% / LDM 9% / REF 7%

[lululemonmustdobetter]

This truly is shocking

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/15/raped-broad-daylight-train-crime-illusions

I personally have been feeling less and less safe in London over the past decade, even more so after the Sarah Everard case. I think there is a direct correlation between this and austerity/government policy (which in a whole swathe of areas has acted/ been contary to women's interests). Its not just about police numbers, but also prevent schemes, support infrastructure across a wide spectrum of public/social services.

[steamdrivenandy]

Dec 15, 2023 9:48:48 GMT leftieliberal said:

Dec 14, 2023 23:05:02 GMT mercian said:

I've often wondered about that Thames Barrier. I believe it was eventually built as a response to the 1953 flood disaster and seems to be a great bit of engineering but how high would the water have to get to simply go round the barrier? I've had a quick scan of the Wikipedia page and I see that it was designed to gradually become less effective after 2030 but it's not being planned to be replaced until 2070. Another reason I'm glad not to live in London and to be near the top of a hill in the Midlands. When we're one of the last bits of land remaining I trust my descendants will fight hard to keep the southerners out. 

My house in North-West London is 65 m ASL, so even the melting of Greenland and Antarctica ice caps won't flood me. We will have water buses, as already on the Thames, but it will be annoying that the Tube will no longer work. 

The outer Met Line Amersham/Chesham to circa Northwood Hill could still operate, not sure about any further in though. And the Uxbridge line could be too far into the Thames Valley to be safe. The mighty River Pinn might become even mightier. Windmill Hill might poke above the swamp. 

[domjg]

There's been depressing news of late on the stalemate in Ukraine after the failure of the counteroffensive to make progress and a softening of Western support, especially in the US with the EU still valiantly trying to hold the breach despite the blocking tactics of the wicked Orban (EU accession talks will now begin but aid has been delayed by the Hungarians).

Obviously in the longer term it's going to be to hard to ask the US and the EU to give 100s of billions in military aid when there appears little immediate chance of regaining lost territory. At the same time if that aid dries up the Russians could feel emboldened to try to take the whole country again. How to prevent that?

There seems to be me to be a very cheap, relatively unrisky way to do this. Ukraine is a sovereign state and can invite the armed forces of whoever it likes onto it's territory. In short relatively small numbers of US, UK, Polish or whoever ground forces should move into Ukraine and station themselves as far east and South as they dare but without being involved with the Ukrainian military.

That should stop the Russians from trying to re-enter the main body of the country and would make a primitive territorial statement: NATO member or no this is part of our world now so f* off Ivan. I suspect if things start looking like Ukraine as a state is in danger again that the Poles and the Balts might do this anyway unilaterally.

In a sense at the beginning of this war we gave in to the idea of Ukraine as in the sphere of Russian influence by treating it's borders as a cordon sanitaire that Western ground and air forces would not enter. At the least unmanned surveillance flights over Ukrainian land territory should have continued and should be restarted now.

[mark61]

Agreed Lululemon, as a father of daughters I have found it extremely depressing to see misogyny and toxic masculinity on the rise, I work in the Criminal Justice system and witness second hand the awful depressing tide of violence against Women  It is the responsibility of all reasonable men to challenge and call out this behaviour.  I now have Grandsons and worry about the Malign influence of Peterson and Tate.   I urge all parents of boys to be vigilant. 

[steve]

shevii

We normally have to keep Trev in the Kenilworth stand behind bars he's a bit of an animal.

Attachments:

[steve]

Meeting of the monthly dictator enabling society.

[crossbat11]

Dec 15, 2023 9:08:35 GMT shevii said:

To be fair- you can't let them roam loose and nibble at your prize winning roses:

Are you sure that isn't a Wigan Athletic home game? The size of the crowd looks about right.

🤔🤣

[crossbat11]

Dec 15, 2023 9:53:59 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Morning all. The Politico poll of polls for the whole year has, despite everything, the Labour lead down by 2% from the start of the year. Both LD and Reform have gained 2%, Greens 1% and the SNP down 2%

www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/

Whilst I would normally think the Green vote would be high at 6%, and likely to get squeezed by 2-3% come polling day, this time round I'm not so sure given Starmer's policy stance. Similarly with the LDs and Reform, I can see their VI holding up in a GE to be in line with what the polls are showing us.

While Sunak and Co probably take some comfort from the slight narrowing of Labour's lead, place hope in Reform and DK's VI returning to the fold come polling day, it is still looking like that at the least Starmer will acquire a comfortable majority. The Tory advantage in the media, and dirty campaigning, will help to mitigate the level of loss for the Tories but I doubt it will be enough to avert defeat. The economy and negative perceptions of their competence are most likely to doom them.

Crikey, you're squeezing the maximum amount of consolatory juice for Sunak and the Tories from that poll of polls, aren't you??? Labour lead down 2% over the year, true, but from 22% to 20% and the Tory VI steadily declining to 24%. Labour VI averaging 44%.

You'll have to work harder than this Lulu to cheer up the UKPR anti-Starmer brigade. Shevii still despondent on these figures, I think. Colin too.

Wrist slashing for us Starmer apologists still some way off, I fear.

But keep foraging by all means. It's a noble search.

[athena]

lululemonmustdobetter
At this time of year I feel for all the women who don't feel safe running in the dark. I'm lucky, I work flexibly so I just adjust the time I run, but lots of women don't have that choice. Fine, some will be able to join a group, but plenty won't and are effectively shut out of what is usually one of the cheapest, most accessible forms of exercise (even after you've shelled out for the sports bra).

[jib]

Dec 15, 2023 10:10:17 GMT domjg said:

There's been depressing news of late on the stalemate in Ukraine after the failure of the counteroffensive to make progress and a softening of Western support, especially in the US with the EU still valiantly trying to hold the breach despite the blocking tactics of the wicked Orban (EU accession talks will now begin but aid has been delayed by the Hungarians).

Obviously in the longer term it's going to be to hard to ask the US and the EU to give 100s of billions in military aid when there appears little immediate chance of regaining lost territory. At the same time if that aid dries up the Russians could feel emboldened to try to take the whole country again. How to prevent that?

There seems to be me to be a very cheap, relatively unrisky way to do this. Ukraine is a sovereign state and can invite the armed forces of whoever it likes onto it's territory. In short relatively small numbers of US, UK, Polish or whoever ground forces should move into Ukraine and station themselves as far east and South as they dare but without being involved with the Ukrainian military.

That should stop the Russians from trying to re-enter the main body of the country and would make a primitive territorial statement: NATO member or no this is part of our world now so f* off Ivan. I suspect if things start looking like Ukraine as a state is in danger again that the Poles and the Balts might do this anyway unilaterally.

In a sense at the beginning of this war we gave in to the idea of Ukraine as in the sphere of Russian influence by treating it's borders as a cordon sanitaire that Western ground and air forces would not enter. At the least unmanned surveillance flights over Ukrainian land territory should have continued and should be restarted now.

It's been obvious for quite a few months that a stalemate and static front has occurred in Ukraine.

The Western powers have been gradually tapering support for a long while now and Ukraine is more than capable of defending itself. It will not however regain Crimea or the Donbas / Mariupol area, and we may as well realise that now.

Peace talks must now be imminent, and Western guarantees of sovereignty for both "Western" Ukraine and the "Russian" East Ukraine & Crimea will follow.

[athena]

Dec 14, 2023 20:59:26 GMT graham said:

'In essence, we dealt with that burden [public debt] via growth - not Austerity beyond the rationing and direct controls inherited from World War 2.

Lab's claim about extraordinary growth is just handwaving, a fairytale the electorate is being told to avoid a difficult conversation. If Reeves (or Hunt or anyone else) does have a cunning plan then it should be open to scrutiny now, not kept secret until the election is won. After PFI and the global financial crisis I think we're entitled to be sceptical about cunning financial plans. It's no use saying that Lab can't afford to let the Tories pinch their ideas, part of the political job is winning attribution games.

[athena]

TBH the Thames barrier was a bad example, because the consequences of it failing are so obviously catastrophic that even our succession of pass-the-infrastructure-maintenance-buck governments have presumably been making sure it stays in reasonable nick.* I just wanted a brief example of collapse that wouldn't require explanation.

I guess the problem comes if the mathematicians get wrong the prediction about when there starts to be a non-trivial probability that there will be a storm surge that exceeds its capacity. Seems unlikely now, but if the climate gets more chaotic then prediction might get hard. The engineers and construction workers will need sufficient warning to do something about the problem, after all.

* A sceptical civil engineer could try a FOI request for the inspection reports, but I'd give short odds on it being refused on security grounds.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Dec 15, 2023 11:13:09 GMT athena said:

lululemonmustdobetter
At this time of year I feel for all the women who don't feel safe running in the dark. I'm lucky, I work flexibly so I just adjust the time I run, but lots of women don't have that choice. Fine, some will be able to join a group, but plenty won't and are effectively shut out of what is usually one of the cheapest, most accessible forms of exercise (even after you've shelled out for the sports bra).

Hi athena. I stop evening/early morning running this time of year, the park where I normally run has no lights at all. Work has been busy, so I haven't been able to do many lunch time runs. I hate gyms (I'm far too self-conscious and don't really think they are designed/cater for the needs of the likes of me), so my fitness is taking a hit. 

When I do go into the office, these days I get my husband to pick me up from the station. I just don't feel safe walking home even though its less than a mile's walk.

[jimjam]

That's shocking lulu

[wb61]

I agree awful. My daughter finished her degree in London this summer and I have felt relief ever since.

[Mark]

mercian said:

I can't see any reason in principle why a small charge could not be made for repeat visits to GPs or A&E for non-urgent cases.

I will present the case of a friend of mine who has perforrated eardrums that are prone to infection.

He gets ear infections like clockwork.

Back in the day, before we had free prescriptions here in Wales, unless such an infection was severe, he would just let it run it's course as he didn't have money to spare and knew that a visit to the GP would mean he had to pay for medication.

The upshot was that one infetion worsened and he ended up in hospital for about 12 days with meningitis.

Paying for a GP appointment will lead to some - those without cash to spare - staying away. This will, in turn, lead to some needing treatment they may not have otherwise needed which, just like the case of my friend, would cost the NHS a far greater amount than the token charge to see a GP.

This is especially true for things like cancer that really do need to be spotted and diagnosed as early as possible.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Dec 15, 2023 11:06:31 GMT crossbat11 said:

Dec 15, 2023 9:53:59 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Crikey, you're squeezing the maximum amount of consolatory juice for Sunak and the Tories from that poll of polls, aren't you??? Labour lead down 2% over the year, true, but from 22% to 20% and the Tory VI steadily declining to 24%. Labour VI averaging 44%.

You'll have to work harder than this Lulu to cheer up the UKPR anti-Starmer brigade. Shevii still despondent on these figures, I think. Colin too.

Wrist slashing for us Starmer apologists still some way off, I fear.

But keep foraging by all means. It's a noble search.

Dearest crossbat11, I suggest you get yourself down to Specsavers then re-read my post. Concluding that they are doomed etc can hardly be seen 'as squeezing the maximum amount of consolatory juice'. I know you are quick these days to pounce on anyone who hasn't drunk the 'Starmer is the messiah' Kool-Aid, but please allow some of us to make objective posts/observations in peace. Your behaviour is starting to resemble that of certain SNP posters. 

[crossbat11]

Dec 15, 2023 13:03:22 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Dec 15, 2023 11:06:31 GMT crossbat11 said:

Crikey, you're squeezing the maximum amount of consolatory juice for Sunak and the Tories from that poll of polls, aren't you??? Labour lead down 2% over the year, true, but from 22% to 20% and the Tory VI steadily declining to 24%. Labour VI averaging 44%.

You'll have to work harder than this Lulu to cheer up the UKPR anti-Starmer brigade. Shevii still despondent on these figures, I think. Colin too.

Wrist slashing for us Starmer apologists still some way off, I fear.

But keep foraging by all means. It's a noble search.

Dearest crossbat11, I suggest you get yourself down to Specsavers then re-read my post. Concluding that they are doomed etc can hardly be seen 'as squeezing the maximum amount of consolatory juice'. I know you are quick these days to pounce on anyone who hasn't drunk the 'Starmer is the messiah' Kool-Aid, but please allow some of us to make objective posts/observations in peace. Your behaviour is starting to resemble that of certain SNP posters. 

Well, dearest Lulu the Lemon, what else were we take from your post when your summary of the poll of polls picked out that "despite everything", whatever "everything" was or is, the Labour lead had "narrowed by 2%" during the year and that "Sunak and co" were entitled to "take comfort" from this narrowing.

My reply to you, which however much you may have disliked was, I think, one that I was perfectly entitled to make, was merely commenting that your summary was highly partial in the two regards I highlighted.

I accept that you went on to be very gloomy about the Tories electoral prospects, but that wasn't the basic point I was making. That point was that the narrowing, from a 22% lead to a 20% one was insignificant and that, on the basis of that continuing very large Labour lead, and the Tory VI slipping to a new low of 24%, there was no consolation at all for the Tories in the poll of polls.

My surprise was that you chose to extract two erroneous crumbs of comfort for the Tories from a poll of polls that looks disastrous for them in terms of their large deficit and declining VI. And on nearly all other counts too.

[neilj]

Re the great poll discussion, looking at the graph Labour’s lead seems to have fluctuated between high teens to 20 or so throughout the year

[jimjam]

CB, I think the Tories aim, much like Lab ahead of 2010, is to deny Labour an OM.

At 44% Labour only have 4 -6% in hand before they fall in to touch and go territory.

Question is what impact will DKs swinging back more behind the party choice in 2019 have, perhaps 4-5% Tory gain taking Labour down around 2% due to higher turnout on most pollster models.

The Tories do, though, clearly need to take perhaps 4% back of the direct Con 2019-Lab switchers which would be worth around a 1.75% swing or 3.5% gap closure.

IMO this is the group the Tories are targeting with their dog whistle stuff thinking the Brexit supporting switchers may respond.

Doubt it will work myself and James E has shown a correlation (but not necessarily causality) between Bregit and switching to Labour.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Dec 15, 2023 13:33:55 GMT crossbat11 said:

Dec 15, 2023 13:03:22 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Well, dearest Lulu the Lemon, what else were we take from your post when your summary of the poll of polls picked out that "despite everything", whatever "everything" was or is, the Labour lead had "narrowed by 2%" during the year and that "Sunak and co" were entitled to "take comfort" from this narrowing.

My reply to you, which however much you may have disliked was, I think, one that I was perfectly entitled to make, was merely commenting that your summary was highly partial in the two regards I highlighted.

I accept that you went on to be very gloomy about the Tories electoral prospects, but that wasn't the basic point I was making. That point was that the narrowing, from a 22% lead to a 20% one was insignificant and that, on the basis of that continuing very large Labour lead, and the Tory VI slipping to a new low of 24%, there was no consolation at all for the Tories in the poll of polls.

My surprise was that you chose to extract two erroneous crumbs of comfort for the Tories from a poll of polls that looks disastrous for them in terms of their large deficit and declining VI. And on nearly all other counts too.

Oh poor crossbat11, obviously in your righteous driven desire to defend the blessed Starmer of Arsenal, you have misunderstood the intent/meaning of what I was trying to say. Sunak 'may' try to convince himself/or seek comfort or have hope that despite a year where nothing has gone right for the Tories there has been a slight narrowing over the year - but that would be misplaced as they are most probably doomed. I always try and caveat what I say with 'probably' 'likely' etc as nothing is certain - also it is always folly to totally write of the Tories.

[leftieliberal]

More In Common poll listed on Wikipedia, 2041 GB Adults 12th-14th December 2023, differences from 30/11/23-4/12/23 poll
Con 28% (-1)
Lab 42%  (=)
LD  11%  (-1)
Ref   8%  (=)
Grn   6% (=)
SNP  4%  (+1)
PC    1%  (=)
Oth   1% (=)

They quote a 15% Labour lead (14.65% rounded up) The values for SNP and PC to 2 decimal places are 3.67% and 0.60% respectively. They are showing the SNP at 34% in the Scottish regional sub-sample with Labour at 27% and Conservatives at 24% (which looks rather high for the Tories in Scotland to me).

They also asked respondents to name their top three issues:
Cost of Living 68%
Supporting the NHS 44%
Levels of immigration 25%
Climate Change and the environment 21%
Affordable housing 19%
Asylum seekers crossing the channel 19%
Crime 14%
Jobs and unemployment 13%
Mental health 11%
Social care for the elderly 10%
The remaining seven issues and don't know were all below 10%

[crossbat11]

Lulu the lemon

Retro-fitted nuance always welcome!!

I suspect you and I are cut from the same cloth in that we derive a frisson of enjoyment from the exchange of mischievous light hearted barbs!

Although this generosity of spirit and equanimity may not always extend to footballing matters.

🤔😉😋

[neilj]

Conspiracy theorists and Farage fans will be disappointed

'An independent review has found no evidence that NatWest Group’s private bank Coutts has been closing customer accounts due to their political views, but found it may have breached rules by failing to give due notice or explain why they were being shut'

[robbiealive]

WILL THEY WON'T THEY: AND THE MYTH OF JOHNSON AS VOTE WINNER

Not been on site for a long time. Little change as one would expect given there are only one or two new posters with substantial posting portfolios.
One thing that never changes: the interminable posting by Shevii & others telling us they can't bring themselves to vote for Starmer. Fine, if you don't want to vote Labour, then don't! Just stop telling us about it: spare us the head-scratching & soul-searching updates. That's not what the site is for. The next GE isn't about your consciences.

Consider the Labour voters' response to Corbyn's left-wing agenda in 2019. The Tory vote hardly increased and Labour lost 2.6 mill votes in 2 years! Labour have never had a vote collapse like that. Yes 2.6 fucking million. The Tories held on to their supporters, including their Remainers, and made their gains in the Red Wall [whose voters ironically Corbyn understood better than most Labour people, tho he did think everything was about him.]

Starmer primary task is to get the Labour vote out: sure he's over-doing it. But look at the figures.

TORY 2017 13,636,000 2019 13,966,000. +2.5% . Vote share +1.3%
LABOUR 2017 12,877,000 2019 10,269,000. -20%! Vote -8%
LIB DEMS 2017 2,371,000 2019 3,696,000 +55% Vote +4.2%
SNP 2017 977,000 2019 1,242,000 +27% Vote +1%

Comment on Crossbat from lululemonmustdobetter
"I know you are quick these days to pounce on anyone who hasn't drunk the 'Starmer is the messiah' Kool-Aid, but please allow some of us to make objective posts/observations in peace. Your behaviour is starting to resemble that of certain SNP posters"

Far be it from me to defend Cross Patch, Cross Purposes, Cross Eyed or whatever he is is but neither he or any Labour supporter on here has called Starmer a messiah.
You are perhaps thinking of J Corbyn, who was called that sometimes & look at the result.

[leftieliberal]

Dec 15, 2023 15:09:56 GMT robbiealive said:

WILL THEY WON'T THEY: AND THE MYTH OF JOHNSON AS VOTE WINNER

Not been on site for a long time. 

Good to see you back.

[shevii]

Dec 15, 2023 10:57:15 GMT crossbat11 said:

Dec 15, 2023 9:08:35 GMT shevii said:

Are you sure that isn't a Wigan Athletic home game? The size of the crowd looks about right.

🤔🤣

Don't I remember you bragging about how you were going to raise a Villa fan free range and after 2 weeks had to pen it in and keep it on a lead whenever you took it out?

The replies on that tweet have a picture of the view of the match from the pen which was even worse than that.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Hi robbiealive

I think you may have misread the nature of Villabatch's and mine interactions. Think more piss take tongue in cheek rather than poo faced dogmatism. Periodically I threaten him with more hairstyle and fashion links on youtube when he's droning on too much about kickieball.

[neilj]

WeThink
@wethinkpolling
'1/ A tetchy week for the PM after a grilling at the #Covid Inquiry and the controversial #Rwanda policy vote. How’d it play out in the #polls, you ask? Labour’s lead is up one to 21.

🔴 Lab 46% (+1)
🔵 Con 25% (NC)
🟠 LD 10% (-1)
⚪ Ref 9% (NC)
🟢 Green 5% (NC)
🟡 SNP 3% (+1)'

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Dec 15, 2023 15:09:56 GMT robbiealive said:

WILL THEY WON'T THEY: AND THE MYTH OF JOHNSON AS VOTE WINNER

Not been on site for a long time. Little change as one would expect given there are only one or two new posters with substantial posting portfolios.
One thing that never changes: the interminable posting by Shevii & others telling us they can't bring themselves to vote for Starmer. Fine, if you don't want to vote Labour, then don't! Just stop telling us about it: spare us the head-scratching & soul-searching updates. That's not what the site is for. The next GE isn't about your consciences.

Consider the Labour voters' response to Corbyn's left-wing agenda in 2019. The Tory vote hardly increased and Labour lost 2.6 mill votes in 2 years! Labour have never had a vote collapse like that. Yes 2.6 fucking million. The Tories held on to their supporters, including their Remainers, and made their gains in the Red Wall [whose voters ironically Corbyn understood better than most Labour people, tho he did think everything was about him.]

Starmer primary task is to get the Labour vote out: sure he's over-doing it. But look at the figures.

TORY 2017 13,636,000 2019 13,966,000. +2.5% . Vote share +1.3%
LABOUR 2017 12,877,000 2019 10,269,000. -20%! Vote -8%
LIB DEMS 2017 2,371,000 2019 3,696,000 +55% Vote +4.2%
SNP 2017 977,000 2019 1,242,000 +27% Vote +1%

Comment on Crossbat from lululemonmustdobetter
"I know you are quick these days to pounce on anyone who hasn't drunk the 'Starmer is the messiah' Kool-Aid, but please allow some of us to make objective posts/observations in peace. Your behaviour is starting to resemble that of certain SNP posters"

Far be it from me to defend Cross Patch, Cross Purposes, Cross Eyed or whatever he is is but neither he or any Labour supporter on here has called Starmer a messiah.
You are perhaps thinking of J Corbyn, who was called that sometimes & look at the result.

Welcome back Robbie. Various folk post that they don’t see why people on the left might have issues voting Starmer, so people not unnaturally explain why. If you just want posts that are invariably positive about Starmer you are apt to be disappointed, not least because not everyone is fighting a campaign.