Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2023 22:12:47 GMT
As steve has started Christmas games, here's one: Guess which regular poster I'm imitating with these one-liners. Some are very easy, some not so, probably because of my poor imitation. One or two might be people who don't often post now or are dead. Apologies to anyone who thinks I have twisted their words. Anyone missing should take it as a compliment that they aren't so obsessive predictable and so are harder to imitate. 1. "The other day I was walking down the canal bank on my way to a football match..." 2. "I don't come here to debate but just to express my opinion, which is that we won't see the benefits of Brexit until 2030 but I probably won't see it" 3. "Covid is really deadly and we should all wear masks all the time" 4. "No we shouldn't have done anything about Covid because I caught it in a seaside town in 2019" 5. "Stats For Lefties has a graph showing that Labour is doing worse in these kind of seats because of XYZ in the ABC." 6. "  " That'll do for starters I’m not playing s8nce you didn’t attempt to do me. Mind you, I am inimitable so I sympathise with your problem. Slightly. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Dec 14, 2023 22:19:32 GMT
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 14, 2023 22:44:57 GMT
No.8 'I should refer you all to Iraq'.
It's one for old times sake
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 14, 2023 22:45:31 GMT
Now another step to a rendezvous in Athens in early June has been successfully negotiated in the Balkans this evening, I can relax a little and indulge, as is my wont, in a little casual sexism on UKPR. (Mark - no you bloody well can't mate. I've warned you 35 times now for such transgressions in the past and I think you may well be approaching the steps of the last chance saloon now. I implore you to heed the warnings given.) I’m mildly worried about your truly dreadful impersonations Batty. Mark has ghosted me, I think. |
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Post by mercian on Dec 14, 2023 22:54:20 GMT
No.8 'I should refer you all to Iraq'. It's one for old times sake No. 9 "They're behaving just like the Nazis" |
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Post by mercian on Dec 14, 2023 23:05:02 GMT
I've often wondered about that Thames Barrier. I believe it was eventually built as a response to the 1953 flood disaster and seems to be a great bit of engineering but how high would the water have to get to simply go round the barrier? I've had a quick scan of the Wikipedia page and I see that it was designed to gradually become less effective after 2030 but it's not being planned to be replaced until 2070. Another reason I'm glad not to live in London and to be near the top of a hill in the Midlands. When we're one of the last bits of land remaining I trust my descendants will fight hard to keep the southerners out.  |
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Post by Rafwan on Dec 14, 2023 23:14:01 GMT
'If you vote tactically for a party that you don't think will address the UK's fundamental problems, can you live with the possibility that this leads to some combination of economic, environmental and social catastrophe on its watch, followed by at least ten years of rightwing, perhaps extreme right, government?'
Such soothsaying boggles my tiny mind. We really have no idea how things will work out at the next GE, never mind ten years later. Labour has chosen its leader by due process and he has set out a path. We really do not all need to understand its complexities; quite simply we have put our collective trust in him. That is the way it works, so let’s just get on with it! Of course we must question, debate and discuss the detail and people are right to do that here, but after all that, removal of the Tories as soon as possible is profoundly necessary.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Dec 14, 2023 23:18:34 GMT
No.8 'I should refer you all to Iraq'. It's one for old times sake The missed Passtherockplease. Number 2 I think was the late, often infuriating Other Howard |
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Post by mercian on Dec 14, 2023 23:25:05 GMT
domjgBang on with number 2!
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Post by jib on Dec 14, 2023 23:37:03 GMT
You're incorrect there. The Thames Barrier is operated and maintained by the Environment Agency. "The Thames Barrier is one of the largest movable flood barriers in the world. The Environment Agency runs and maintains the Thames Barrier as well as London’s other flood defences." Source: Gov.uk |
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 15, 2023 6:07:24 GMT
TREASON'S GREETINGS  |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Dec 15, 2023 6:12:49 GMT
@techneuk
Lab 44% (-1)
Con 22% (=)
Lib Dem 12% (=)
Reform 9% (+1)
Green 7% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Others: 3% (=)
Fieldwork 13-14 December
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 15, 2023 6:40:24 GMT
neilj Just for fun I put those numbers through electoral calculus the remaining 30 Tories can take it in turns to be party leader, the Lib Dems would be the official opposition just a hairs breadth behind Labour short by 478* . How Labour would scrape by with a majority of just 410 is a quandry! Isn't first past the post wonderful. * Remove any likely tactics voting and the Tories are still on less than 90. It's beginning to look a lot like christmas.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 15, 2023 6:43:06 GMT
Billinghay Rural (North Kesteven) Council By-Election Result:
🔶 LDM: 41.1% (New)
🌳 CON: 29.5%*
🙋 IND (Liles): 26.1% (New)
🙋 IND (Brand): 3.4% (New)
*Previously elected unopposed.
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.
Changes w/ 2023.
Nice pick up
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 15, 2023 6:43:55 GMT
Chorleywood South & Maple Cross (Three Rivers) Council By-Election Result:
🔶 LDM: 57.5% (+4.6)
🌳 CON: 29.4% (+1.8)
🌍 GRN: 8.5% (-1.8)
🌹 LAB: 4.6% (-4.6)
Liberal Democrat HOLD.
Changes w/ 2023.
Lechlade, Kempsford & Fairford South (Cotswold) Council By-Election Result:
🔶 LDM: 48.5% (-7.2)
🌳 CON: 42.9% (+4.9)
🌹 LAB: 5.0% (-1.3)
🙋 IND: 3.6% (New)
Liberal Democrat HOLD.
Changes w/ 2023.
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 15, 2023 7:38:36 GMT
I am indeed a woman (although obviously you've only got my word for that) and I chose an explicitly female username so that the appropriate singular pronoun would be obvious. crossbat11 makes the same mistake and I've never been sure whether it's deliberate rudeness, ignorance of my mythological namesake or just carelessness/casual sexism. In crossbat11 's case it's probably all 3 EDIT: Beaten to it by the man himself. I rather take exception, Mercy Man, to your assumption about my gender. I know we have met in person, but don't be fooled by my outward appearance and attire. There is a clue in my name and it's the reference to "cross". |
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 15, 2023 7:48:12 GMT
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 15, 2023 7:48:54 GMT
Immunocompromised people are a minority, and we generally take the view that minorities need protection from harm. But not, it seems, from this harm. If the majority wishes to tolerate infection levels that risk severe outcomes and death for the 5% in this category, I'm not that's a good example of the majority imposing their will. Theres lots of womens rights campaigners who would argue they are not protected from harm, despite being 50% of the population. As a gay guy I am one of maybe 10% of the population, who have often been persecuted, some driven to suicide, and still are discriminated against. One of the reasons conservatives want to get rid of the ECHR is exactly because it protects individual citizens rights, and claims it protects immigrants are simply the excuse to do that. As to those would be immigrants, we arent protecting their rights at all! We arent protecting the rights of Ukrainians to live in their own country, at peace, or Gazans. Not in more than a token way, anyway. We have laws imposed upon us dictated by a minority of citizens. Generally, I would say we do not protect minorities rights as against the majority. We dont even protect the majority from the minority. Particular circumstances tend to be determined on their perceived merits. Hence a faction of the conservative party in particular would have all the gays locked up again, and the women back in the kitchen. But you are arguing about protection from a particular disease. 1) There is no one who will not die. 2) For certain groups this is a lot bigger risk than for others, thats just how their luck turned out. 3) We allocate a certain level of resources to care for those with a problem, but firstly the level is decided amongst competing needs for limited resources, and secondly, see 1, its completely impossible to keep everyone alive forever no matter what you did. 4) If everyone in the Uk had started wearing masks in 2019, we would still have had a covid epidemic. I dont believe there was anything we could have done to prevent it. The number who have died is only 250,000, which I estimated as a mere 7 million life years world wide. Whereas HIV or flu took away more like a billion life years each, x100 worse. Massively more serious threats, covid was a mere pussy. Both these others are still going too. And those are just examples. 5) Throughout history animals survived epidemics by catching them and becoming immune. Thats the same now. You have some crazy idea you want us to manufacture vaccines which anyway dont work very well and use them instead of developing natural immunity. Thats senseless. It hasnt stopped the covid deaths, which are still ticking along. Its very expensive. Especially since covid is simply one example of hundreds or thousands of potential diseases with similar risk you would have to control medically instead of naturally if we tried to go that route. 6) If you actually ask people if they want to live their whole lives in a bubble never meeting others or travelling, so that when they are old they might be protected a bit from covid and die a month (or is it a week? a day?) later on average, they would tell you to stuff it. Theres good reason to argue intervention caused more deaths, not less. Japan did virtually nothing, tiny deaths rate. Sweden refused lockdown 2/3 our death rate. A number of countries did manage to isolate their nations, still got 1/3 our death rate and climbing because all they managed was to avoid the initial surge, but are still getting the post vaccination drip drip of deaths. Life is not better in lockdown. Medicine tried to creat vaccines for the common cold in the 1960s. We just tried doing the same. It didnt work then, it didnt work now. Theoretically it might be nicer without these disease but realistically there is no way to get rid of them. Its like arguing britain would be better outside the EU. No ones dreams on that score have come true either. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 15, 2023 8:03:46 GMT
crossbat11Indeed "Nigel Farage has named Vladimir Putin as the world leader he most admires, Farage's comments emerged just days after the Eurosceptic MEP said the European Union had "blood on its hands" for encouraging rebellion in Ukraine, Syria and Libya. While stressing he did not approve of Putin's annexation of Crimea, he said EU leaders had been "weak and vain", adding: "If you poke the Russian bear with a stick he will respond."
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Post by alec on Dec 15, 2023 8:11:56 GMT
Danny - There are numerous factual and interpretive errors, and misrepresentations in your latest diatribe. Far too many for me to address this side of Christmas. Do try to learn a little about the basic concepts before commenting, and it would be nice if you could do your best to actually read what people are saying, instead of inventing what you think said.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 15, 2023 8:23:58 GMT
Yet again the post office scandal is in the news. The 900 post masters convicted of fraud because the post office software was faulty and unable to account properly the money in their post ofices. The son of one of those now dead without compensation was arguing the people responsible for this should be facing charges now.
Firstly, the software comppany who were aware their software was faulty, yet delivered it anyway. And then never admitted it was.
The post ofice, who intitially were not aware the software was faulty, but once they realised this still maintained they were right and the post masters all criminals. Its hard to understand how their fraud department could not have realised pretty quickly something very strange was happening if their was a huge spate of fraud by postmasters when the software was introduced. The son described how police were searching for tens of thousands of pounds in cash, because they could not see anywhere the missing money had gone. One might think again this absence of anywhere the money had gone in any of the cases would have been suggestive something wasnt right.
Spokesperson on R4 arguing its not possible to put this right because its on such a big scale and these people have been formally convicted. We can legislate rwanda is a safe country, but we cannot legislate people obviously falsely convicted should be declared innocent and compensated.
Or...government would rather leave this till after the election?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 15, 2023 8:36:26 GMT
Danny - There are numerous factual and interpretive errors, and misrepresentations in your latest diatribe. Far too many for me to address this side of Christmas. Either address them or accept them. Covid has been a very minor epidemic. Far less loss of life years than HIV, flu, loads of others. It was massively over estimated and action taken which cannot now be justified by the true level of the risk it posed. What happened was a disaster of over reaction. The vaccines didnt work very well, and that wasnt actually surprising given the failure in the 60s to create vaccines against similar diseases, colds. Covid 19 is just another example of a virus which causes colds, once we have adapted to it. In the last 100 years most epidemics have been over estimated. Over reaction is getting worse, and the harm caused by it similarly. You just seem unable to get the hang of the idea humans die when they get old, and that was the fundamental point here. On average we died a tiny bit younger, but not much. But politicians, and doctors indeed, feel somehow this was unacceptable despite realistically being unavoidable. Johnson was arguing autumn 2020 that the orignal covid was beaten so no new lockdowns needed. yet his experts were telling him to do just that. They were wrong, wrong, wrong, and you keep defending them. I dont understand why you have such a vendetta, is it because you are a political campaigner and simply cannot accept your party got this call so very wrong, demanding more interventions even than Johnson was willing to allow? Labour made a terrible mistake demanding heavier interventions, and everyone should realise that. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 15, 2023 8:45:10 GMT
I heard an interesting story yesterday about how the 50bn aid for Ukraine package is proceeding through the EU. The issue was about whether one country might block it, but it was explained in such circumstances the remainder would simply proceed outside the EU framework.
Whats interesting is how the US congress hold on aid might be seen as forcing the europeans hands in filling the gap. The US has a long term goal to end military aid to Europe and make the europeans pay. So rather than hand wringing about the US being only concerned with internal politics, this saga could be looked upon as maneuvering to bring about that goal, rather than disinterest in the fate of ukraine.
Countries like the Uk have not made a serious effort to aid Ukraine, despite this being very obviously in our long term interest. We need Russia put back in its box. Another issue this government intends to leave for the next one to solve.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 15, 2023 9:01:39 GMT
Interesting case of some residents of a tower block in Bristol, who have just been evacuated from the block and dumped in hotels, in similar circumstances to refugees. The residents are demanding the right to go back. They were all apparently ordered to leave with no notice at 6 in the evening, despite the block having stood since the 1960s and the faults dating back to its original construction.
While there may indeed be faults with the building, the actual risk of imminent collapsee has to be very small. I doubt its any different to many others which have all also survived this long. The Grenfall fire too was a rare event, the actual risk from such buildings being pretty small and ones many people around the world would be delighted to run for the benefit of living there.
Dumping residents into hotels is NOT an acceptable solution. Its exactly the same insanity as what happened over covid, an over reaction. In this example i am reminded of what happened to Hastings pier. The council decided it was unsafe so closed it for a year or two while arguments over this continued. Since it was essentially abandoned for this time, someone set it on fire. It was eventually deemed not to be unsafe, but now of course absent its former buildings. Its still there, its real problem is bankruptcy as a tourist attraction, of course made a lot worse because its theatre etc no longer exist.
Absolute safety has become the enemy of society. Perfection has become the enemy of the good.
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Post by shevii on Dec 15, 2023 9:08:35 GMT
To be fair- you can't let them roam loose and nibble at your prize winning roses:
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 15, 2023 9:31:02 GMT
Discussion on lbc about parents taking their children out of school during term times.
The bogus argument that every school day matters has obviously been blown to smithereens by covid shut downs but long before that we routinely took our Children out of school during term time , particularly when the school was arranging some ludicrously expensive school trip and leaving those students who didn't go to rearrange the paperclips in the school office for a week.
Our thinking was a family holiday for five at the same cost as a school activities week at a adventure centre for one, no brainer.
The primary element was cost , holiday costs are pushed through the roof by airlines and travel companies during state school holidays.
The same holiday just three weeks earlier or later routinely being 50% cheaper even an overlap of a few days saved 20%+.
Nick Ferrari of course was withering on about fining parents naturally ignoring the fact that the massive price hikes are aimed at the 93% of families whose children attend state schools, not the richest 7%, like him, whose children go to fee charging schools that normally have at least six weeks more holiday entitlement .
Little tip if you have teenage children who can still tolerate going on holidays with you consider a sixth form college they normally have more or less the same term times as universities which particularly during the summer is a real cost bonus.
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Post by alec on Dec 15, 2023 9:35:06 GMT
Danny - There are numerous factual and interpretive errors, and misrepresentations in your latest diatribe. Far too many for me to address this side of Christmas. I'll flag up two of them: HIV and dying a "tiny bit earlier". With HIV, there is now no loss of life years, if treated in time. With Covid, we're also just about at the same point in the HIV/AIDs pandemic that people realised it was serious. As for dying a tiny bit earlier, Covid is the first time ever since we started recording global life expectancy that is has dropped, and it has dropped for two years in a row, falling by 2 whole years. In mortality terms, that's a huge fall. In comparison, the HIV pandemic never saw life expectancy reverse, instead the growth slowed slightly. Wrong on both counts, as you are with almost everything else.
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Post by leftieliberal on Dec 15, 2023 9:48:48 GMT
I've often wondered about that Thames Barrier. I believe it was eventually built as a response to the 1953 flood disaster and seems to be a great bit of engineering but how high would the water have to get to simply go round the barrier? I've had a quick scan of the Wikipedia page and I see that it was designed to gradually become less effective after 2030 but it's not being planned to be replaced until 2070. Another reason I'm glad not to live in London and to be near the top of a hill in the Midlands. When we're one of the last bits of land remaining I trust my descendants will fight hard to keep the southerners out. My house in North-West London is 65 m ASL, so even the melting of Greenland and Antarctica ice caps won't flood me. We will have water buses, as already on the Thames, but it will be annoying that the Tube will no longer work. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Dec 15, 2023 9:53:43 GMT
You're incorrect there. The Thames Barrier is operated and maintained by the Environment Agency. "The Thames Barrier is one of the largest movable flood barriers in the world. The Environment Agency runs and maintains the Thames Barrier as well as London’s other flood defences." Source: Gov.uk The Thames Barrier will continue to protect London to its current standard up until 2070. The plan identifies different options for then either improving or replacing the Thames Barrier. I helped the Environment Agency safeguard land for a potential new barrier at Purfleet.
Without the Mayor, the Environment Agency cannot carry out its functions. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 15, 2023 9:53:59 GMT
Morning all. The Politico poll of polls for the whole year has, despite everything, the Labour lead down by 2% from the start of the year. Both LD and Reform have gained 2%, Greens 1% and the SNP down 2%www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/
Whilst I would normally think the Green vote would be high at 6%, and likely to get squeezed by 2-3% come polling day, this time round I'm not so sure given Starmer's policy stance. Similarly with the LDs and Reform, I can see their VI holding up in a GE to be in line with what the polls are showing us.
While Sunak and Co probably take some comfort from the slight narrowing of Labour's lead, place hope in Reform and DK's VI returning to the fold come polling day, it is still looking like that at the least Starmer will acquire a comfortable majority. The Tory advantage in the media, and dirty campaigning, will help to mitigate the level of loss for the Tories but I doubt it will be enough to avert defeat. The economy and negative perceptions of their competence are most likely to doom them.
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