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Post by alec on Dec 15, 2023 15:57:15 GMT
Meanwhile, deeply depressing news from the NHS, as this year's festive collapse gathers pace.
The context here is important. While 'flu levels have jumped sharply in the latest weekly report, they are still in the 'low' category, having just risen above the 'baseline' level, and are at 2.14/100,000 compared to 6.76 for the same week last year. RSV issues are actually declining rapidly, while covid admissions are rising quickly, but are still at 3.8/100,000 compared to 6.61 last year. There is a bit more norovirus around this year, (with suspicions that the NHS is counting all diarrhea and vomiting as norovirus due to a lack of covid testing) but overall the picture is of a much more limited set of disruptive waves of seasonal sickness compared to last year. This will change very shortly, with flu rising and a strong likelihood of a significant covid wave breaking, bu for now, the NHS really shouldn't be in trouble.
Sadly, the situation is already worse than last year. A&E wait times with 4 hour waits up 14% to end November, with 12 hour waits also up on last year, despite far lower flu and covid pressures. (All figures for NHSE only).
I think this winter is going to be horrendous for the NHS.
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 15, 2023 16:04:35 GMT
If posters, both existing and returning, continue to get my name wrong I will have to call upon Athena to remind everyone of the site regulations that apply to posters who gratuitously call gender and usernames incorrectly.
Lemon Lulu and this character Robbie Savage are the worst offenders.
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 15, 2023 16:21:46 GMT
Are you sure that isn't a Wigan Athletic home game? The size of the crowd looks about right. 🤔🤣 Don't I remember you bragging about how you were going to raise a Villa fan free range and after 2 weeks had to pen it in and keep it on a lead whenever you took it out? The replies on that tweet have a picture of the view of the match from the pen which was even worse than that. Qué? |
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Post by graham on Dec 15, 2023 16:25:20 GMT
WILL THEY WON'T THEY: AND THE MYTH OF JOHNSON AS VOTE WINNER Not been on site for a long time. Little change as one would expect given there are only one or two new posters with substantial posting portfolios. One thing that never changes: the interminable posting by Shevii & others telling us they can't bring themselves to vote for Starmer. Fine, if you don't want to vote Labour, then don't! Just stop telling us about it: spare us the head-scratching & soul-searching updates. That's not what the site is for. The next GE isn't about your consciences. Consider the Labour voters' response to Corbyn's left-wing agenda in 2019. The Tory vote hardly increased and Labour lost 2.6 mill votes in 2 years! Labour have never had a vote collapse like that. Yes 2.6 fucking million. The Tories held on to their supporters, including their Remainers, and made their gains in the Red Wall [whose voters ironically Corbyn understood better than most Labour people, tho he did think everything was about him.] Starmer primary task is to get the Labour vote out: sure he's over-doing it. But look at the figures. TORY 2017 13,636,000 2019 13,966,000. +2.5% . Vote share +1.3% LABOUR 2017 12,877,000 2019 10,269,000. -20%! Vote -8% LIB DEMS 2017 2,371,000 2019 3,696,000 +55% Vote +4.2% SNP 2017 977,000 2019 1,242,000 +27% Vote +1% Comment on Crossbat from lululemonmustdobetter "I know you are quick these days to pounce on anyone who hasn't drunk the 'Starmer is the messiah' Kool-Aid, but please allow some of us to make objective posts/observations in peace. Your behaviour is starting to resemble that of certain SNP posters" Far be it from me to defend Cross Patch, Cross Purposes, Cross Eyed or whatever he is is but neither he or any Labour supporter on here has called Starmer a messiah. You are perhaps thinking of J Corbyn, who was called that sometimes & look at the result. Not historically accurate. In 1983 Labour lost over 3 million votes compared with 1979 with its GB vote share dropping to 28.3% from 37.6%. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 15, 2023 16:33:17 GMT
'If you vote tactically for a party that you don't think will address the UK's fundamental problems, can you live with the possibility that this leads to some combination of economic, environmental and social catastrophe on its watch, followed by at least ten years of rightwing, perhaps extreme right, government?' Such soothsaying boggles my tiny mind. We really have no idea how things will work out at the next GE, never mind ten years later. Labour has chosen its leader by due process and he has set out a path. We really do not all need to understand its complexities; quite simply we have put our collective trust in him. That is the way it works, so let’s just get on with it! Of course we must question, debate and discuss the detail and people are right to do that here, but after all that, removal of the Tories as soon as possible is profoundly necessary. well it’s soothsaying either way, as you acknowledge when you suggest people put their trust in him. People have done that kind of thing before - with Johnson, Blair, Clegg and more - and had cause to regret it. In Starmer’s case though, he’s already gone back on a load of pledges so the people who placed their trust in him initially might have additional cause to be wary. The alternative of a grouping voting for someone else, or maybe to abstain, can possibly be more predictable in outcome, esp. if their normal choice has a significant lead, making it less of a risk, since it can put pressure to take their needs into account, as opposed to having their vote taken foregranted. Hence people switching to UKIP forced Cameron to offer a ref., which might not have happened if they had backed him all along. Another reason to back an alternative, is to support a small party in the hopes they might grow bigger in future. And yes, this might be a bit idealistic, but it’s how Labour grew in the first place, by people deciding not to vote for one of the big two parties at the time. (That said, the left aren’t necessarily as given to rebelling or backing alternatives as the right) |
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Post by robbiealive on Dec 15, 2023 16:37:59 GMT
Not historically accurate. In 1983 Labour lost over 3 million votes compared with 1979 with its GB vote share dropping to 28.3% from 37.6%. I knew that. I was just giving you a chance to display yr knowledge. |
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Post by robbiealive on Dec 15, 2023 16:41:31 GMT
The posting is still dominated by the dozen or so who have posted 3,500-4,000 times or more, who [roughly] account for about two-thirds of the total. Within this group of course are the "hateful eight", the prison-posters-for-life, the chronic self-publicists, the OCD mob, the quare mob, the grim recidivists, the limpets, the barnacles, the molluscs, all of who could do with a lengthy rest, but whose addiction prevents it. Or perhaps their complacency would be best disturbed by an Unrest-Cure. [See the v funny little story with this title by Saki, the master of this short form. www.eastoftheweb.com/short-stories/UBooks/UnrCur.shtml Or his www.eastoftheweb.com/short-stories/UBooks/Loui.shtml]. I am just polishing an epic poem on the "hateful" which will be published on here before it goes viral. I thought if I blocked all of them, the site might be pleasant to visit, as there are many agreeable posters. Carfrew. Agree the site's not for campaigning; but nor is it for endless agonising, boring, blogging bum-scratching. Crossroads when the Green Man shows. Athena. Given the name ends in an A, gender-confusion seems strange. There was also the Athena poster-girl, as she was called in those unreconstructed days. |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 15, 2023 16:42:55 GMT
Not historically accurate. In 1983 Labour lost over 3 million votes compared with 1979 with its GB vote share dropping to 28.3% from 37.6%. And both times the right of the party acted against the leadership. The right within Tories also helped do for Major, and isn’t helping Sunak now. The right tend to be purists. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 15, 2023 16:49:12 GMT
The posting is still dominated by the dozen or so who have posted 3,500-4,000 times or more, who [roughly] account for about two-thirds of the total. Within this group of course are the "hateful eight", the prison-posters-for-life, the chronic self-publicists, the OCD mob, the quare mob, the grim recidivists, the limpets, the barnacles, the molluscs, all of who could do with a lengthy rest, but whose addiction prevents it. Or perhaps their complacency would be best disturbed by an Unrest-Cure. [See the v funny little story with this title by Saki, the master of this short form. www.eastoftheweb.com/short-stories/UBooks/UnrCur.shtml Or his www.eastoftheweb.com/short-stories/UBooks/Loui.shtml]. I am just polishing an epic poem on the "hateful" which will be published on here before it goes viral. I thought if I blocked all of them, the site might be pleasant to visit, as there are many agreeable posters. Carfrew. Agree the site's not for campaigning; but nor is it for endless agonising, boring, blogging bum-scratching. Crossroads when the Green Man shows. Athena. Given the name ends in an A, gender-confusion seems strange. There was also the Athena poster-girl, as she was called in those unreconstructed days. Robbie, this is a site about polling, and in particular, the key polling thing that gets discussed, is voting intention. So people discussing how people may vote, or may be persuaded to abstain, and the reasons why, is about as germane as it comes. And clearly, quite a lot of people like to discuss it. |
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Post by peterbell on Dec 15, 2023 16:51:23 GMT
Lulu, You refer to a 2% reduction in the Lab lead (22% -20%) since the beginning of the year. However if you look at the beginning of the chart (mid Dec 22?), the figures are Lab 46% and Con 26% ie a 20% lead therefore no change over the 12 months. I would therefore sugest that today's position is little different to that of 12 months ago and with the improved LD figure and the potential for tactical voting between Lab & LD where appropriate, I would suggest that the Lab position is potentially better now than it was 12 months ago. As I see little potential for Con clawing back many votes (the general public have had enough of them and there is little prospect of an improvement in the economy or cost of living) then a large Lab majority is on the cards. In fact, too large a majority from my perspective, as someone who looks forward to PR sooner rather than later.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 15, 2023 16:52:26 GMT
'In essence, we dealt with that burden [public debt] via growth - not Austerity beyond the rationing and direct controls inherited from World War 2. Lab's claim about extraordinary growth is just handwaving, a fairytale the electorate is being told to avoid a difficult conversation. If Reeves (or Hunt or anyone else) does have a cunning plan then it should be open to scrutiny now, not kept secret until the election is won. After PFI and the global financial crisis I think we're entitled to be sceptical about cunning financial plans. It's no use saying that Lab can't afford to let the Tories pinch their ideas, part of the political job is winning attribution games. Not a small number of Tory voters will be agreeing with you. He appealed directly to us in that last speech :- " So, if you voted for ...... the Conservatives four years ago, and you’re still waiting for the change you demanded......... Then I say again, this is what a changed Labour Party will deliver." He emphasised what change he meant :- "It’s why the driving project of my time as Labour leader has always been to restore my party to the service of working people. Cast your mind back to the last election, four years ago today. December 12th 2019. The worst defeat for Labour since 1935. Working people up and down our country looked at my party, looked at how we’d lost our way, not just under Jeremy Corbyn, but for a while, and they said ‘no’. Not this time. You don’t listen to us anymore." Like so many commentators I thought that that "for a while" meant Ed Milliband as Leader. So his £28 billion really has been ditched? Reeves really did mean what she said about borrowing & tax?. But Patrick Maguire in today's Times says-no-not at all. In his piece :-"Despite antipathy towards his predecessor, the Labour leader sees his green investment plan as central to growth" he writes:- "We will, however, definitely be hearing about plans to retrofit houses with insulation, about energy security, about the publicly owned green electricity firm GB Energy, about new towns that will provide the workforce for the battery factories they are built around, about cheaper power for individual households and new opportunities for workers in what we now call the red wall. For Miliband this is not hippy-dippy environmental evangelism but an economic policy and industrial strategy that is incidentally environmental." But he also says :- "There is no question that he will cut the cloth of his vision in line with Reeves." So the £28 bn of borrowing really is ditched then-but how will she pay for Ed's Energy Transition Stimulus ? Maguire gives a hint :- "That is the irreversible direction of travel, and it is one Miliband is comfortable with. Come the election campaign, I doubt we will hear about an arbitrary £28 billion from Labour spokespeople — though Conservative Campaign HQ will be only too keen to step into that breach. There may yet be clarification about how much of whatever sum Reeves’s fiscal rules permit to come from borrowing — or, as I heard whispered this week, perhaps another windfall tax." I'm inclined to think this is very near the truth and I also think that KS tries too hard to shoot perceived Tory Party foxes on borrowing & tax. He is manifestly not Corbyn , and Reeves-a former BoE employee- knows enough about the perils of unserviceable government debt in the post QE era *, when that paragon of government fiscal rectitude Germany is wrestling with it. So I think you can assume that there is a plan-and like you I hope they spell it out with honesty-including the debt/tax sources of the stimulus , and fight the Tory Party on the merits of the package. *https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/13/developing-nations-spent-record-high-on-debt-in-2022-world-bank.html |
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Post by johntel on Dec 15, 2023 17:14:18 GMT
..There was also the Athena poster-girl, as she was called in those unreconstructed days. That's our one obs. |
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Post by johntel on Dec 15, 2023 17:16:11 GMT
She's an expert in warfare and wisdom as well as handicraft, courage, inspiration, civilization, law and justice, strategic warfare, mathematics, strength, strategy, the arts, and skill (according to wiki). So we should listen to what she says.
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Post by robbiealive on Dec 15, 2023 17:26:50 GMT
She's an expert in warfare and wisdom as well as handicraft, courage, inspiration, civilization, law and justice, strategic warfare, mathematics, strength, strategy, the arts, and skill (according to wiki). So we should listen to what she says. Is that all! Well that short list of mediocre attainments won't impress this site's mollusc tendency. Their polymathic range knows few if any limits. |
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Post by robbiealive on Dec 15, 2023 17:31:10 GMT
ie, this is a site about polling, and in particular, the key polling thing that gets discussed, is voting intention. Discussing how people may vote, or may be persuaded to abstain, and the reasons why, is about as germane as it comes. And clearly, quite a lot of people like to discuss it. Yes the VI of millions of people as sampled in polls of 2,000 or so would-be voters. It's not about the day-to-day agonising of individual posters unless they can link their angst to the wider voting impact of disillusioned leftist voters. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 15, 2023 17:38:38 GMT
ie, this is a site about polling, and in particular, the key polling thing that gets discussed, is voting intention. Discussing how people may vote, or may be persuaded to abstain, and the reasons why, is about as germane as it comes. And clearly, quite a lot of people like to discuss it. Yes the VI of millions of people as sampled in polls of 2,000 or so would-be voters. It's not about the day-to-day agonising of individual posters unless they can link their angst to the wider voting impact of disillusioned leftist voters. They don’t have to prove it now. For example, they can speculate that if someone doesn’t deliver when in power, then it may affect VI in the future. Then you get to see if that happened or not, the scientific method. You can also have views that may start off in a distinct minority but which become popular over time. (But even if someone has a view that doesn’t become popular for many years, it can still of interest if it can stand up to some scrutiny). |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 15, 2023 17:39:24 GMT
Lulu, You refer to a 2% reduction in the Lab lead (22% -20%) since the beginning of the year. However if you look at the beginning of the chart (mid Dec 22?), the figures are Lab 46% and Con 26% ie a 20% lead therefore no change over the 12 months. I would therefore sugest that today's position is little different to that of 12 months ago and with the improved LD figure and the potential for tactical voting between Lab & LD where appropriate, I would suggest that the Lab position is potentially better now than it was 12 months ago. As I see little potential for Con clawing back many votes (the general public have had enough of them and there is little prospect of an improvement in the economy or cost of living) then a large Lab majority is on the cards. In fact, too large a majority from my perspective, as someone who looks forward to PR sooner rather than later. , oh I would completely agree with you, over the past 12 months very little has changed, which is bad news for Sunak. I think one of the key things that has happened is that Reform is gaining ground at the expense of the Tories and it doesn't look like the Tories will get these voters back. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 15, 2023 17:41:05 GMT
She's an expert in warfare and wisdom as well as handicraft, courage, inspiration, civilization, law and justice, strategic warfare, mathematics, strength, strategy, the arts, and skill (according to wiki). So we should listen to what she says. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 15, 2023 18:06:09 GMT
There was also the Athena poster-girl, as she was called in those unreconstructed days. That brought back to mind when I worked for Access your flexible friend (1976 to 1989) and they produced a showcard that featured a similar tennis playing pose but with an Access card poking out of a pocket. And bearing in mind the season, they also produced a Christmas card one year with a Georgian coach and horses pulling up outside a snow covered hostelry with windows ablaze a scene that we've all seen many times but in this particular case the hostelry had an Access decal in its window. We had a sense of humour at the Joint Credit Card Company. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 15, 2023 18:11:05 GMT
She's an expert in warfare and wisdom as well as handicraft, courage, inspiration, civilization, law and justice, strategic warfare, mathematics, strength, strategy, the arts, and skill (according to wiki). So we should listen to what she says. yes but if you hadn’t taken @lululemonmustdobetter while you had the chance, someone else might have taken it! |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Dec 15, 2023 18:14:50 GMT
Remember the picture of the BBC newsreader giving the finger
This is the full video, made me laugh, good on her
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 15, 2023 18:24:23 GMT
robbiealive
I confess to often not paying due care and attention to the gender of posters, certainly not based on user name alone. Barbara and Lady Valerie give the game away but whilst maybe, if I'd thought about it more than I did, I should have assumed athena was a female poster, it isn't a user name that reveals a slam dunk gender affirmation. Not for me, anyway.
There was an actress called Robin Given and the former MP for Bromsgrove and Redditch, very definitely a man, was called Hilary Dupper Miller. Disembodied usernames can be superficially deceiving on social media.
In my defence, I've been guilty of transgressing the other way gender wise, assuming, erroneously, for a long time that isa, a regular and very agreeable UKPR poster, was a female. He politely and humourously corrected me without accusing me of casual sexism, misogyny or rudeness.
Or whatever the full charge sheet is.
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Post by johntel on Dec 15, 2023 18:54:39 GMT
She's an expert in warfare and wisdom as well as handicraft, courage, inspiration, civilization, law and justice, strategic warfare, mathematics, strength, strategy, the arts, and skill (according to wiki). So we should listen to what she says. Never mind Lulu, you probably know more about football than she does. |
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Post by graham on Dec 15, 2023 20:15:11 GMT
Apparently Scott Benton is appealing and this will be heard in the New Year. No Commons vote now likely before February.Any Recall petition will not conclude before late March.The Government could decide to keep the seat vacant until the Summer Recess.
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Post by mercian on Dec 15, 2023 20:37:17 GMT
Danny - There are numerous factual and interpretive errors, and misrepresentations in your latest diatribe. Far too many for me to address this side of Christmas. Either address them or accept them. Covid has been a very minor epidemic. Far less loss of life years than HIV, flu, loads of others. It was massively over estimated and action taken which cannot now be justified by the true level of the risk it posed. It wasn't difficult to find this: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics_and_pandemicsAccording to that, Covid has around the fifth highest deaths of any pandemic ever and is of course still ongoing. There are big ranges of the total deaths from all these plagues but it's hardly 'very minor'. |
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jib
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Post by jib on Dec 15, 2023 20:46:05 GMT
This truly is shockingwww.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/15/raped-broad-daylight-train-crime-illusionsI personally have been feeling less and less safe in London over the past decade, even more so after the Sarah Everard case. I think there is a direct correlation between this and austerity/government policy (which in a whole swathe of areas has acted/ been contary to women's interests). Its not just about police numbers, but also prevent schemes, support infrastructure across a wide spectrum of public/social services.
We know who enabled this. The fact we live in a generally crap Britain is directly attributable to the pointless cuts enabled by them. |
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Post by mercian on Dec 15, 2023 20:46:39 GMT
Morning all. The Politico poll of polls for the whole year has, despite everything, the Labour lead down by 2% from the start of the year. Both LD and Reform have gained 2%, Greens 1% and the SNP down 2%www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/
Whilst I would normally think the Green vote would be high at 6%, and likely to get squeezed by 2-3% come polling day, this time round I'm not so sure given Starmer's policy stance. Similarly with the LDs and Reform, I can see their VI holding up in a GE to be in line with what the polls are showing us.
While Sunak and Co probably take some comfort from the slight narrowing of Labour's lead, place hope in Reform and DK's VI returning to the fold come polling day, it is still looking like that at the least Starmer will acquire a comfortable majority. The Tory advantage in the media, and dirty campaigning, will help to mitigate the level of loss for the Tories but I doubt it will be enough to avert defeat. The economy and negative perceptions of their competence are most likely to doom them. Plus Mercian's 13-year rule. A lot of people will just think "Time to let the other lot have a go" and it's probably true. They've had a lot to deal with - aftermath of the financial crash, Brexit, Covid, war in Ukraine, mass immigration etc - but they do seem to have pretty much run out of steam. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 15, 2023 20:54:29 GMT
ie, this is a site about polling, and in particular, the key polling thing that gets discussed, is voting intention. Discussing how people may vote, or may be persuaded to abstain, and the reasons why, is about as germane as it comes. And clearly, quite a lot of people like to discuss it. Yes the VI of millions of people as sampled in polls of 2,000 or so would-be voters. It's not about the day-to-day agonising of individual posters unless they can link their angst to the wider voting impact of disillusioned leftist voters. Pleased to have you back as chummy as ever Robbie. Some of us were slightly worried that the worst had happened and you were having problems signing in as robbieadead. |
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Post by mercian on Dec 15, 2023 21:05:42 GMT
I can't see any reason in principle why a small charge could not be made for repeat visits to GPs or A&E for non-urgent cases. I will present the case of a friend of mine who has perforrated eardrums that are prone to infection. He gets ear infections like clockwork. Back in the day, before we had free prescriptions here in Wales, unless such an infection was severe, he would just let it run it's course as he didn't have money to spare and knew that a visit to the GP would mean he had to pay for medication. The upshot was that one infetion worsened and he ended up in hospital for about 12 days with meningitis. Paying for a GP appointment will lead to some - those without cash to spare - staying away. This will, in turn, lead to some needing treatment they may not have otherwise needed which, just like the case of my friend, would cost the NHS a far greater amount than the token charge to see a GP. This is especially true for things like cancer that really do need to be spotted and diagnosed as early as possible. Yes of course, any new rule would have to be carefully designed not to penalise genuine cases. I gave an example of a few people visiting A&E over 100 times in a year (and not for some sort of repetitive treatment). I believe, though never had the data to be able to prove it, that a lot of GPs suffer from time wasters. Here's a link to what I hope is an acceptable source www.theguardian.com/healthcare-network/views-from-the-nhs-frontline/2015/jul/13/wasting-gps-time-no-i-cant-prescribe-you-new-shoesSo what I was suggesting was a way of deterring time-wasters rather than genuine cases - e.g. someone who visits a GP more than x times a year without anything significantly wrong. |
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Post by mercian on Dec 15, 2023 21:16:39 GMT
robbiealive "Consider the Labour voters' response to Corbyn's left-wing agenda in 2019. The Tory vote hardly increased and Labour lost 2.6 mill votes in 2 years! Labour have never had a vote collapse like that. Yes 2.6 fucking million." I agreed with a lot of your post, but they have had several vote collapses like that. 1979 to 83 -3.1 million 1997 to 2001 -2.8 million EDIT: Beaten to it by graham this time 
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