pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,566
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Post by pjw1961 on Dec 11, 2023 14:49:52 GMT
On the specific question of the Minimum Income Requirement for spousal visas, Kendall said that Labour supports increasing it ( IIRC Labour policy a few years ago was to abolish the MIR entirely), did not say that the proposed minimum of £38,600 was too high or instead indicate on what basis Labour would increase it ( the current level of £18600 was set at a level to prevent a spouse becoming " a burden" on the taxpayer). You are correct that Labour policy supports increasing it, which per Kendall in her R4 Today programme interview, is existing party policy (I assume she's right as its her brief, but I haven't checked). In the R4 interview she did strongly hint £38.6k was too high and stated specifically that the decision on the level would be based on the advice of the Migration Advisory Committee - which I agree is a cop out, although I can see the reasons why they want to avoid a specific number. My personal view is that the Tory policy will cause so many practical issues that they will abandon it anyway or perhaps watered down with loads of exceptions for specific groups. In fact I suspect it is nothing more that a mix of performative politics and a trap for Labour - a trap Kendall is trying not to fall into, at the cost of looking vague and indecisive. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,566
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Post by pjw1961 on Dec 11, 2023 14:58:33 GMT
crossbat11 I do find it a tad odd that as a lib dem party member I tend to be one of the first to defend the Labour leader, given that I think his policies on both Brexit and migration are weak and inadequate and pander to the hard of thinking , if any Labour member's here would like to offer a more full throated defence feel free. I take the view there is no point in reacting to everything, it would quickly get boring for everyone. Tories and SNP alike are worried about losing seats to Labour, so they are in full attack mode, but it is also very transparent what they are doing and I'm sure people can make their own mind up. To be honest, I expect a Labour government to become unpopular very quickly as it is unable to meet the expectations placed on it, and this site will be full of anti-Labour voices rejoicing over every problem and set-back. At that point, I will likely go back to lurking, as I don't fancy spending hours defending every daft thing the government does. |
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Post by alec on Dec 11, 2023 15:50:46 GMT
Apologies if this has been covered, but out and haven't caught up yet. This thread dispels some of the myths around who is concerned about immigration and why. Long and short; it's not related to economic circumstances, but it is related to where you are on the socially conservative/liberal scale.
"The right like to claim that the "liberal elite" is ignoring the concerns of "ordinary people" about migration. But the people most likely to be concerned are comfortably-off social conservatives. Most other people are more worried about the economy and the cost of living." Ho ho ho. It's actually the Conservative middle class elites.
Lab to Con switchers in 2019 are likely to prefer lower migration, but are more concerned with the cost of living, so if curtailing migration raises inflationary pressures.....that's a bit of a whoopsie.
Thread here -
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Post by shevii on Dec 11, 2023 16:17:56 GMT
Deltapoll
@deltapolluk
·
49m
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
Labour lead narrows to eleven percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
Con 29% (+2)
Lab 40% (-2)
Lib Dem 11% (-2)
Other 21% (+2)
Fieldwork: 8th-11th December 2023
Sample: 1,005 GB adults
(Changes from 1st-4th November 2023)
...............
Deltapoll have some of the lower Lab leads anyway so I doubt this is anything other than rogue/edge of MOE and no doubt R&W in a little while will confirm this. One in a row though :-)
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Post by leftieliberal on Dec 11, 2023 16:44:31 GMT
Deltapoll @deltapolluk · 49m 🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead narrows to eleven percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll. Con 29% (+2) Lab 40% (-2) Lib Dem 11% (-2) Other 21% (+2) Fieldwork: 8th-11th December 2023 Sample: 1,005 GB adults (Changes from 1st-4th November 2023) ............... Deltapoll have some of the lower Lab leads anyway so I doubt this is anything other than rogue/edge of MOE and no doubt R&W in a little while will confirm this. One in a row though :-) The Tory VI variation is pretty much MoE. Most recent Deltapoll polls put them at around 27-28%. Their Labour % VI suggests a bit of a downward trend (their 14 polls since the beginning of September are 46, 47, 44, 44, 43, 47, 47, 46, 45, 44, 44, 42, 42, 40). Too early to be sure, but if I see another two polls from them in the 40-42% range this month, I shall begin to think it is a real effect (or at least a real Deltapoll effect). |
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neilj
Member
Posts: 6,357
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Post by neilj on Dec 11, 2023 17:01:06 GMT
Redfield Wilton
"Labour leads by 18% nationally, marking two years since the Conservatives last led in our polling.
Westminster VI (10 Dec):
Labour 43% (+1)
Conservative 25% (-1)
Lib Dem 13% (+1)
Reform 11% (+1)
Green 5% (-1)
SNP 2% (-1)
Other 1% (+1)
Changes +/- 3 Dec"
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,566
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Post by pjw1961 on Dec 11, 2023 17:05:01 GMT
Redfield Wilton "Labour leads by 18% nationally, marking two years since the Conservatives last led in our polling. Westminster VI (10 Dec): Labour 43% (+1) Conservative 25% (-1) Lib Dem 13% (+1) Reform 11% (+1) Green 5% (-1) SNP 2% (-1) Other 1% (+1) Changes +/- 3 Dec" So 1 in a row, followed by 1 in a row  |
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Post by wb61 on Dec 11, 2023 17:19:06 GMT
From what I have seen Labour is averaging around the mid to low 40's% and the Conservatives mid to high 20's%. All of the noise seems not to alter that greatly, it is polldrums as far as the averages are concerned.
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 11, 2023 17:22:14 GMT
I don't know whether this is true or not, but there is chatter on social media that a new pollster has joined the fray.
They're called, rather bizarrely, "Better Than Sex" and their first poll, according to rumours, has Labour in a 35% lead.
I don"t know what their methodology is, but this sounds like a rogue poll to me.
Hopefully more will be revealed shortly. Watch this space, in other words.
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Post by wb61 on Dec 11, 2023 17:36:04 GMT
I don't know whether this is true or not, but there is chatter on social media that a new pollster has joined the fray. They're called, rather bizarrely, "Better Than Sex" and their first poll, according to rumours, has Labour in a 35% lead. I don"t know what their methodology is, but this sounds like a rogue poll to me. Hopefully more will be revealed shortly. Watch this space, in other words. You tease, surely! |
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Post by mercian on Dec 11, 2023 17:40:03 GMT
I gave up watching QT years ago but when I accidentally catch a few minutes it always strikes me that the audience seem to be 90% loony lefties akin the the Just Stop Oil fanatics. Perhaps they're balanced in the sense of 50% Corbynites and 50% Militant? Having been in the audience myself, I can report that when you apply, you are asked questions about what party you support, where you stand on current salient issues etc. How difficult would it be for someone to pretend in the application to have different views to the ones they really hold? |
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steve
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Posts: 12,614
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Post by steve on Dec 11, 2023 17:40:51 GMT
Amnesia appears to effect all Tory regime leaders.  |
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Post by wb61 on Dec 11, 2023 17:47:37 GMT
Having been in the audience myself, I can report that when you apply, you are asked questions about what party you support, where you stand on current salient issues etc. How difficult would it be for someone to pretend in the application to have different views to the ones they really hold? Why do you immediately assume people would be dishonest? In my experience (except sometimes in the criminal courts) people generally tend towards telling the truth, particularly about what they believe as it is core to who they are. |
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Post by bardin1 on Dec 11, 2023 17:54:02 GMT
I don't know whether this is true or not, but there is chatter on social media that a new pollster has joined the fray. They're called, rather bizarrely, "Better Than Sex" and their first poll, according to rumours, has Labour in a 35% lead. I don"t know what their methodology is, but this sounds like a rogue poll to me. Hopefully more will be revealed shortly. Watch this space, in other words. Can you be more specific about what might be revealed? (asking for a friend) |
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neilj
Member
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Post by neilj on Dec 11, 2023 18:06:14 GMT
This is the issue with Farage, he has a loyal fan base, but a much bigger group who don't like him
He's not the answer to the tories electoral woes
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 11, 2023 18:07:59 GMT
I don"t know what their methodology is,?
Vast quantities of chocolate.
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Post by leftieliberal on Dec 11, 2023 18:21:26 GMT
Total taxation receipts forecast to increase to 41.5% GDP by 2028-29 before changes in Autumn Statement: obr.uk/economic-and-fiscal-outlooks/#chapter-4Summary of the receipts forecast
4.6 In 2022-23, total public sector receipts as a share of GDP reached 40.1 per cent, a 3.2 percentage point increase on their pre-pandemic level of 36.8 per cent of GDP in 2019-20. Receipts are forecast to continue to grow faster than nominal GDP, rising as a share of the economy by a further 1.5 percentage points to reach 41.6 per cent of GDP by end of the forecast in 2028-29. Even after the significant reductions in personal and corporate taxes announced in this Autumn Statement, the tax burden (the ratio of National Accounts taxes to GDP) is forecast to reach a post-war high of 37.7 per cent of GDP in 2028-29, 4.5 percentage points above its pre-pandemic level of 33.1 per cent of GDP in 2019-20. The effect of freezing personal allowances on the number of income tax payers: obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Nov-2023-EFO-additional-taxpayers-by-tax-rate-band.pdfFigures published by the Office of Budgetary Responsibility show that there will be an estimated 7.5 million higher rate taxpayers by 2028-29, almost double the 3.8 million there were in 2019-20 at the start of the Parliament. This rise is due to the Chancellor’s decision to freeze income tax thresholds which will drag millions of taxpayers into a higher rate.
The proportion of all income taxpayers in the higher rate is set to soar from 12% in 2019-20 to 19% by 2028-29. It means almost one in five income tax payers are set to be in the higher rate.
Meanwhile the number of people paying income tax is set to rise from 31.5 million in 2019-20 to 39.2 million by 2028-29, as people are dragged into paying tax through the freezing of the personal allowance.
The number of additional rate taxpayers, those paying the top rate of income tax, is set to double from 600,000 in 2022-23 to 1.3 million in 2028-29.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 11, 2023 18:44:38 GMT
We've always known that older voters are more inclined to vote than younger voters, but that many lower earners have given up on democracy is concerning. Have they given up on democracy? Or simply see no party which would represent their views? The whole point of the conservative strategy to paint Starmer as no different to a tory, is clearly to persuade left inclined people there is no point supporting them. |
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Post by hireton on Dec 11, 2023 19:32:43 GMT
The One Nation Tory group has decided to support the Rwanda Bill.
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Post by jib on Dec 11, 2023 19:49:24 GMT
The One Nation Tory group has decided to support the Rwanda Bill. The whole lot have gone nuts. |
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Post by Old Southendian on Dec 11, 2023 19:50:05 GMT
The One Nation Tory group has decided to support the Rwanda Bill. Rebels without a clue. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 11, 2023 19:51:05 GMT
You lot really are something - I haven't posted for two weeks and not a bit of concern from anyone of you as to the possible state of my condition. What a bunch of misogynists gits - if I was a retired ROC posters there would have been at least three pages of posts contemplating my fate. I could have been kidnapped by Barberry Pirates for all you lot know or care.
On a much more serious note, I think its perfectly reasonable for LOC voters to question what Labour's position will actually be if, and its still is an if, they form the next govt. Whatever Labour does will be done in the name/with the justification of those who voted for them, so those who vote for them have a right to know what type of government they are actually voting for.
I get that tactically there is a need not to fall into traps etc but undeniably Labour policy has shifted significantly to the right, and for many of us on the left gone much further than Starmer needed to in order not to 'scare the horses'. I fear the opportunity for a genuine mandate for a number of LOC positions has unnecessarily been squandered. As I am relatively economically literate, I also understand that the current environment and outlook is a major constraint, and what may have been possible 5 years ago in terms of scope of action is not possible now. However, I do fear that Reeves is falling far to much towards certain dogmatic positions that will act as a limiting factors on what the government does do.
The likes of myself are likely to turn up and vote for non-Tory parties, and many will vote tactically as they ultimately do want to see the back of the Tories. Some will abstain or vote Green etc, and those who do so are perfectly legitimate to do so. If right-wing propaganda aimed at suppressing left-wing VI for Labour is successful, the main reason for it being so is due to the element of truth there is in relation to Starmer's shift to the right and side-lining of the left in the party.
(sorry batty but it has to be said)
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 11, 2023 20:13:19 GMT
I'm concerned Lulu hasn't posted for over twenty minutes.
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Post by thylacine on Dec 11, 2023 20:24:49 GMT
I just assumed Lulu was to busy lurking on Conservative home.
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domjg
Member
Posts: 5,123
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Post by domjg on Dec 11, 2023 20:56:53 GMT
How difficult would it be for someone to pretend in the application to have different views to the ones they really hold? Why do you immediately assume people would be dishonest? In my experience (except sometimes in the criminal courts) people generally tend towards telling the truth, particularly about what they believe as it is core to who they are. In my experience those who assume other people are habitually dishonest are just reflecting themselves. |
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Danny
Member
Posts: 10,315
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Post by Danny on Dec 11, 2023 21:01:50 GMT
What I don't understand is why he didn't just transfer the messages over I'm not tech savvy but it's really easy to do, Sunak is supposed to be good at tech What I found curious was how Johnson's missing whatsapp messages were also not available from the other side of the conversation. Both lots of the same messages going missing is a lot more than doubly suspicious. |
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Post by mark61 on Dec 11, 2023 21:28:09 GMT
We find ourselves in the position that the only brake on our own governments willingness to further ignore international Law is the reluctance of the Rwandan Government to countenance signing a treaty which would disapply some of the precepts of the ECHR and the framework of international human rights, they care about their international reputation whilst seemingly our Govt. does not. All to send 300 refugees to Rwanda at a cost of about £1 million a head.
It appears the 'One Nation' group are on board with this, prepared to accept that a Minister can decree something as a fact when the Supreme Court having heard and weighed the evidence have ruled otherwise. What a Spineless bunch!
However this still isn't enough for the usual suspects who seemingly would prefer a one line Bill; His Majesty's Government can do whatever it wants.
I hope that The Conservative MP's somehow manage to vote it down by accident to precipitate a Crisis in Government and the failure of this Bill. If Sir Keir ever looks in at this forum ( he Should!) now is the time to be brave and call this out for what it is, and say what Labour would do instead, and best let Yvette Cooper lead the Opposition response and ask her to remember why she joined the Labour party in the first place.
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 11, 2023 21:30:05 GMT
You lot really are something - I haven't posted for two weeks and not a bit of concern from anyone of you as to the possible state of my condition. What a bunch of misogynists gits - if I was a retired ROC posters there would have been at least three pages of posts contemplating my fate. I could have been kidnapped by Barberry Pirates for all you lot know or care.
On a much more serious note, I think its perfectly reasonable for LOC voters to question what Labour's position will actually be if, and its still is an if, they form the next govt. Whatever Labour does will be done in the name/with the justification of those who voted for them, so those who vote for them have a right to know what type of government they are actually voting for.
I get that tactically there is a need not to fall into traps etc but undeniably Labour policy has shifted significantly to the right, and for many of us on the left gone much further than Starmer needed to in order not to 'scare the horses'. I fear the opportunity for a genuine mandate for a number of LOC positions has unnecessarily been squandered. As I am relatively economically literate, I also understand that the current environment and outlook is a major constraint, and what may have been possible 5 years ago in terms of scope of action is not possible now. However, I do fear that Reeves is falling far to much towards certain dogmatic positions that will act as a limiting factors on what the government does do.
The likes of myself are likely to turn up and vote for non-Tory parties, and many will vote tactically as they ultimately do want to see the back of the Tories. Some will abstain or vote Green etc, and those who do so are perfectly legitimate to do so. If right-wing propaganda aimed at suppressing left-wing VI for Labour is successful, the main reason for it being so is due to the element of truth there is in relation to Starmer's shift to the right and side-lining of the left in the party.
(sorry batty but it has to be said) Due to your relative youth and obvious vitality, I had no concerns at all about your wellbeing while you were away. I'd put your absence down to West Ham's recent results and sort of assumed that you and Dave , maybe the faintheart Rafwan too, had slunk off to contemplate a relegation battle in the privacy of your East London homes. As for what you say about Labour's timidity and drift to the right under Starmer, I stick to my position that we may be over-interpreting pre-election positioning and various teasing dances of the seven veils for policy commitment when in government. Starmer is following, in my view anyway, Labour's one and only proven route to power when trying to escape opposition and topple a Tory Government. That route presupposes, correctly in my view, that the party needs to give millions of unaligned and traditionally sceptical voters the permission to vote Labour. The party doesn't get the benefit of the doubt that the Tories do, not from the voters nor the political and cultural establishment. History tells us that permission is rarely granted and certain pre-conditions have to be met on economic competence and trust with power for it to be so given. It's the way our electorate tends to be. In the absence of evidence that the pre-conditions are met they huddle centre-right. Starmer's being cautious, and disappointingly unambitious for some, but I think it's wrong to say he's selling out. I'm an optimist by nature and I think all bets may be off if Labour are swept into power next year with a big majority. I think we may see a completely different Starmer in government then, armed with political licence and public goodwill. The poisonous legacy bequeathed to him may even grant him a surprising honeymoon too if he manages the messaging on that adroitly. Years to clean up and repair the mess, bear with us, green shoots may appear, ........ Anyway, here's something for the optimists. A New Statesman discussion on why there just might be reasons to be cheerful about an incoming Starmer Government. As old Trevor used to say, I suspect it will go down like a "bag of sick" with most of our UKPR posters, but as a committed Centrist Dad, it warmed the cockles of my heart, particularly the bits on workers rights, housebuilding, new towns, closer ties with Europe etc. www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVlPZDUPnOM |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,566
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Post by pjw1961 on Dec 11, 2023 21:42:06 GMT
We find ourselves in the position that the only brake on our own governments willingness to further ignore international Law is the reluctance of the Rwandan Government to countenance signing a treaty which would disapply some of the precepts of the ECHR and the framework of international human rights, they care about their international reputation whilst seemingly our Govt. does not. All to send 300 refugees to Rwanda at a cost of about £1 million a head. It appears the 'One Nation' group are on board with this, prepared to accept that a Minister can decree something as a fact when the Supreme Court having heard and weighed the evidence have ruled otherwise. What a Spineless bunch! However this still isn't enough for the usual suspects who seemingly would prefer a one line Bill; His Majesty's Government can do whatever it wants. I hope that The Conservative MP's somehow manage to vote it down by accident to precipitate a Crisis in Government and the failure of this Bill. If Sir Keir ever looks in at this forum ( he Should!) now is the time to be brave and call this out for what it is, and say what Labour would do instead, and best let Yvette Cooper lead the Opposition response and ask her to remember why she joined the Labour party in the first place. I did warn that relying on 'moderate' Tories to actually do something principled is a complete waste of time. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,680
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 11, 2023 21:44:00 GMT
You lot really are something - I haven't posted for two weeks and not a bit of concern from anyone of you as to the possible state of my condition. What a bunch of misogynists gits - if I was a retired ROC posters there would have been at least three pages of posts contemplating my fate. I could have been kidnapped by Barberry Pirates for all you lot know or care.
well, was a bit worried for the pirates now you come to mention it. But yes, welcome back lulu! 👍 you are back in time for some polling. About Covid… |
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