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Post by alec on Dec 5, 2023 15:26:37 GMT
leftieliberal - Re Larry Elliot, I thought it was a atypically jumbled and confused article from Elliot, who is clearly trying to hold to his beliefs despite the mounting evidence. He does raise some important facts about European growth being sluggish, but he also skirts round the fact that the UK recovery from the initial impacts of covid was faster because our low point was lower. He also gets very confused where he covers right wing politics. He talks about how the EU has swung right, but whereas he uses the US as a comparator when he wants to paint EU growth as sluggish, he strangely declines to compare EU politics to recent US events. Nowt more right wing that what they've just endured under Trump. I also find his claim that the UK has avoided the drift rightwards as fanciful. We've just done it in a different way, because of FPTP. Where he talks about investment, he cites a couple of large projects, but fails to mention how slack overall UK investment has been compared to the rest of the G7 since Brexit. That's an extremely partial view of the problem and doesn't reflect well on Elliot.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 5, 2023 15:38:32 GMT
He notes the problem of the usefulness of the house of lords is no one can agree on the question what better might replace it. And in all this current members of the commons dont like aynthing which threatens their hold on power. well indeed they may not agree, but one mooted option is a citizen’s assembly operating under Sortition?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 5, 2023 15:40:20 GMT
Not true - Ministers have resigned when they feel unable to support policies. Toss your political career goodbye. Theresa May said her ambition was always to be prime minister. i am sure she said she agreed with an awful lot she didnt to get to that point. Unsurprising if virtually no MP really believes in their party manifesto. Its about what they think can get them elected and into power. Surprising the rest of us are cynical about politicians?
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 5, 2023 15:50:39 GMT
"UK ministers considering limit on foreign care worker dependants Workers could be restricted to bringing one relative under plans to reduce migration" Given that care workers are often women with children, that's definitely going to work. Still elderly brexitanians could always stop being care receivers and get off their mobility scooters and get back to work. The nursing homes and crop fields are waiting for you to do your civic duty. Sometimes catering to xenophobic stupidity is just bizarre. Fundamentally this is all about whether one thinks immigration per se is good or bad. If you think its good, theres no problem anyone bringing all their friends and relatives. If you think its bad, then you have to prevent it, or at least mitigate its effects. One way to do that is make sure the only people who come here will choose to go back where they came from when you no longer need them, or they are old and a burden. One way to do that is make sure they leave their families behind. Its not clear to me this would mean not enough people would want to come, only they would be a group more likely to leave again. (though of course, I did last year speak to a foreign care worker whose reason for being here was maybe not about money but being gay, who was very happy to leave everything at home back home. So perhaps the rule will encourage more permanet stayers. But at least they wont be a two for the work of one deal) Well it isn’t necessarily a case of good or bad - some argue for example for preferring certain kinds of immigration. Some argue for catering to shortage sectors, some prefer higher-waged so as to try and protect the wages of the low paid... But of course if you create more jobs then you have less worry about the low pay. In the end, if we want more immigration it comes back to the question of how to ameliorate any possible negative impacts. Then we can have over a million a year if we want. It may be necessary to accept many more if climate change isn’t significantly addressed, in which case how to accept more immigration - build all the necessary housing, infrastructure, mitigate environmental effects, reduce any negative impacts on countries from where the immigrants arrive etc. - becomes even more desirable to sort out.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 5, 2023 16:02:57 GMT
Interesting listening to a GP being interviewed on R4. Claire Gerada, president of the royal college of GPs. Someone high profile it seems. Who is arguing the NHS could be greatly improved by switching more money from hospitals to GPs.
Reminiscent of a trend noted a decade ago at least, that the NHS has been taking over local care services abandoned by local authorities as their funding has shrunk, because it sees care in the community as a more effective use of its resources. In particular, of course, bed blocking because patients cannot be discharged, but also trying to keep people healthy at home so they dont get to hospital. And presumably that would also apply to the GPs, to try to keep people not needing the hospitals.
Oh, and doctors reject latest pay offer, again. The story of this coming year if there is no spring election.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 5, 2023 16:11:39 GMT
Well it isn’t necessarily a case of good or bad - some argue for example for preferring certain kinds of immigration. Immigration is self evidenctly bad if we refuse to provide the infrastructure needed by these extra people. 500,000 new immigrants in the lates figures implies a need for 500,000 new homes just to keep up. Did that happen? No at all. If climate change isnt significantly addressed London will be under water, along with many other towns. If its moderately addressed there will be a world food shortage and the UK is unable to feed itself. If its well addressed, we get the best option of waves of displaced people, or how to keep them out by force. Today the problem is choosing whether immigrants are a benefit, which despite brexit remains the decision of all governments for most of the last 100 years. Whereas honestly we would be better off without them. But that has always involved cost incurred by government to better educate the people it already has, and cost incurred by private companies to mechanise and use fewer in manufacturing.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 5, 2023 16:18:11 GMT
Well it isn’t necessarily a case of good or bad - some argue for example for preferring certain kinds of immigration. Immigration is self evidenctly bad if we refuse to provide the infrastructure needed by these extra people. 500,000 new immigrants in the lates figures implies a need for 500,000 new homes just to keep up. Did that happen? No at all. Well yes, there are planning constraints, environmental regs, the problem that leaving it to the private sector means they prefer to build at a rate to maximise the sale price rather than cater to the demand, but if we want more immigration, and I am quite positive about it, then it would be useful to sort these constraints. (Things like planning constraints are an issue for other things like green investment too)
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 5, 2023 16:21:37 GMT
If climate change isnt significantly addressed London will be under water, along with many other towns. If its moderately addressed there will be a world food shortage and the UK is unable to feed itself. If its well addressed, we get the best option of waves of displaced people, or how to keep them out by force. Today the problem is choosing whether immigrants are a benefit, which despite brexit remains the decision of all governments for most of the last 100 years. Whereas honestly we would be better off without them. But that has always involved cost incurred by government to better educate the people it already has, and cost incurred by private companies to mechanise and use fewer in manufacturing. Well we may need more immigration to build flood defences then! And there is an alternative argument that lots more immigration would be handy in giving us more economic clout, though ideally this would come along with increased productivity, instead of immigration being used to avoid investment.
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Post by graham on Dec 5, 2023 16:25:29 GMT
Not true - Ministers have resigned when they feel unable to support policies. Toss your political career goodbye. Theresa May said her ambition was always to be prime minister. i am sure she said she agreed with an awful lot she didnt to get to that point. Unsurprising if virtually no MP really believes in their party manifesto. Its about what they think can get them elected and into power. Surprising the rest of us are cynical about politicians? Harold Wilson resigned from Attlee's Government in Spring 1951. He still managed to have a successful political career thereafter!
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Dec 5, 2023 16:46:55 GMT
Toss your political career goodbye. Theresa May said her ambition was always to be prime minister. i am sure she said she agreed with an awful lot she didnt to get to that point. Unsurprising if virtually no MP really believes in their party manifesto. Its about what they think can get them elected and into power. Surprising the rest of us are cynical about politicians? Harold Wilson resigned from Attlee's Government in Spring 1951. He still managed to have a successful political career thereafter! More recently Heseltine resigned on a (slightly arcane) point of principle and later returned as deputy PM. Johnson resigned as FS under May and returned as PM - although there was nothing principled about anything Boris Johnson has ever done, it was a successful political calculation of self-interest in that case.
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Post by alec on Dec 5, 2023 16:53:20 GMT
Not sure if this has been covered elsewhere, but it's sneaky, and very odd. Conservatives are normally quite squiffy about enhanced state powers to snoop on citizens, so it's odd that they want the power to inspect bank accounts of anyone claiming the state pension. As Timms says, the only plausible use would be for means testing the pension.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 5, 2023 17:09:39 GMT
World beating One in 10 UK 15-year-olds (11%) told the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which conducts the survey, they had missed meals because of poverty, which puts the UK on a par with countries such as Mexico and Moldova.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 5, 2023 17:15:45 GMT
"Harold Wilson resigned from Attlee's Government in Spring 1951. He still managed to have a successful political career thereafter!"
he couldn't have stayed in government much longer given the Labour party lost the general election in October
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 5, 2023 17:17:19 GMT
if we want more immigration, and I am quite positive about it, then it would be useful to sort these constraints. (Things like planning constraints are an issue for other things like green investment too) However we have a government committed to as much immigration as the economy needs. Denying that it has a policy of immigration. Refusing to build even enough homes for those already here, never mind the extras. Doesnt it look to you like a capitalists charter? Manipulating the economic environment to maximise the wealth of the already wealthy?
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Post by graham on Dec 5, 2023 17:20:53 GMT
"Harold Wilson resigned from Attlee's Government in Spring 1951. He still managed to have a successful political career thereafter!" he couldn't have stayed in government much longer given the Labour party lost the general election in October But he was not to know that in the Spring of 1951 - indeed at that point there was no real expectation of a GE being held later that year.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 5, 2023 17:22:14 GMT
Rwanda strategy rumbles on. The consensus seems to be the new treaty might help the goverbnment case to send migrants there, but is likely not to be sufficient.
Braverman was entirely correct that this government simply does not want to succeed in sending them. If it had done so 2 years ago, by now we would know if it worked to suppress new arrivals or had no effect. And we would no doubt have seen exactly what happened to the people concerned. Running waht many seem to believe is the risk the entire scheme would collapse leaving the government with no plan.
Strategically, its much better for government to be fighting for this when an election strikes than to have already done it. So it proceeds with incremental measures which get defeated and it has another go, wasting as much time as necessary.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 5, 2023 17:25:41 GMT
Some chronologically challenged tory on R4 just saying how successful the Uk is at integrating immigrants, and how second generation arrivals do much better in the UK than elsewhere in Europe.
Which apparently demonstrates the benefits of our new powers to control immigration after brexit.
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Post by alec on Dec 5, 2023 17:32:06 GMT
The mortality crisis is, more than anything else, a crisis of the young and middle aged -
Really very striking to see this, and completely against expectations. Most of this is clearly covid driven, in one way or another, and the impact on younger people is going to exert a major impact on both life expectancy and economic development.
Elsewhere today, I've seen a recently published paper on male hypogonadism post covid. Small sample, but 50% of infected males had impaired sperm and testosterone levels for a year after mild infection, with implications for ongoing fertility.
If these small scale results are reflected more widely, we'll be heading quite rapidly towards a depopulation crisis. No real idea whether this is a likely scenario, but several studies have pointed towards this now.
This is how evolution works.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Dec 5, 2023 17:34:31 GMT
Don't intend to visit often but given an 'event' on immigration then a short visit. The Rwanda treaty* feels a lot like continuing the 'merry go round' IMO as it will obviously see political/legal challenges. I've posted several times what needs to be done but with <=1y to a GE then since Rwanda scheme wasn't specifically in CON'19 manifesto then the Parliament Act/Salisbury Convention doesn't apply (ie the Lords can ping-pong any legislation past a GE). Folks are sick of 'all talk, no action' and whilst it is encouraging that LAB will continue with the other changes** made to immigration then a '3rd country' as a deterrent is IMO an important piece of the solution. Immigration continues to be a very important issue for CON'19 voters and hardly surprise to see RUK hitting double digits in a few polls when CON have had years to sort immigration out and failed to do so. Whilst opinion has improved on some issues (eg economy, from a very low base) then immigration is net -29%. With a massive lag in official data and Rwanda scheme dither+delay then I doubt CON's VI will improve unless/until flights start departing as voters have been taken for fools in trusting CON to get a grip on immigration way more than just once too often already. * www.gov.uk/government/news/treaty-signed-to-strengthen-uk-rwanda-migration-partnership#** Better late than never and the data does lag but WTF took them so long to crack down on the abuse of the system with people bringing over so many dependents?!? www.gov.uk/government/news/home-secretary-unveils-plan-to-cut-net-migration
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 5, 2023 17:55:36 GMT
if we want more immigration, and I am quite positive about it, then it would be useful to sort these constraints. (Things like planning constraints are an issue for other things like green investment too) However we have a government committed to as much immigration as the economy needs. Denying that it has a policy of immigration. Refusing to build even enough homes for those already here, never mind the extras. Doesnt it look to you like a capitalists charter? Manipulating the economic environment to maximise the wealth of the already wealthy? Well it may be Danny. It’s been argued on here before that some don’t want more housebuilding as it may reduce their property gains. And of course if at the same time they are also keen on immigration, then that’s an additional pressure to increase house prices. So there is the political calculation to consider, just as with the case where some argue for immigration to lower prices, even though it may do so by lowering the wages of the already low-waged. That’s why ideally immigration might occur alongside job creation. (But some rejoiners aren’t keen on full employment either…)
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Post by lens on Dec 5, 2023 18:09:50 GMT
Not sure if this has been covered elsewhere, but it's sneaky, and very odd. Conservatives are normally quite squiffy about enhanced state powers to snoop on citizens, so it's odd that they want the power to inspect bank accounts of anyone claiming the state pension. As Timms says, the only plausible use would be for means testing the pension. What if you have more than one bank account? Would it give them the right to look into ALL the accounts held, or just the one the pension is paid into?
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 5, 2023 18:16:30 GMT
In journalists don't know what they are talking about news. Sky news reporter saying " junior doctors " account for 40% of the nhs workforce. Depending how you measure it there are between 55-75000 junior doctors in the nhs.
The NHS employs around 1.3 million people!
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 5, 2023 18:21:27 GMT
"The mortality crisis is, more than anything else, a crisis of the young and middle aged -"
Alec the leading cause of death in the UK among men under 50 is tragically suicide.
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Post by alec on Dec 5, 2023 18:21:52 GMT
Just noticed our Trevor's tagline - "Holds to the now unfashionable view that politicians should act in the national interest and not just follow opinion polls."
Is this the same Trevor who floated the 'Ready for Rishi' slogan, because, err, the opinion polls look better for Tories under him?
Shurely shome mishtake..
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Dec 5, 2023 18:22:04 GMT
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Post by alec on Dec 5, 2023 18:25:20 GMT
steve - what's that got to do with the price of fish? We're seeing some really significant levels of excess deaths, concentrated in working age people. We've just seen the biggest drop in global life expectancy ever recorded, with a full 2 years knocked off average lifespan. Hiding behind the sofa works for Dr Who, but for real life, and some point you have to come out and face what's really going on.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 5, 2023 18:37:11 GMT
alec You bang on and on about covid implications that's fine it's your choice .But in doing so you totally disregard the non covid ( other than lockdown and economic) mental health crisis impacting men in this country Around 5000 men took their own lives last year the suicide rate among men is three times that of women. Men aged 45-64 have the highest rate of suicide by age (20 per 100,000). Suicide is the second biggest cause of death in young males (1-19 years old). Suicide is the single greatest cause of death among men under 55 in the UK not covid. Committing suicide before the age of 55 has a considerably greater impact on life expectancy than covid Worldwide It's likely that the massive disruption in grain supplies from Ukraine to third world countries combined with climate change impacts are putting immense pressure on mortality in the 70%+ of the world the West would regard as poor. But you simply don't want to look at other factors impacting mortality. And you think no one else sees what's really going on. Spare me!
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Post by jib on Dec 5, 2023 18:50:33 GMT
Liberator magazine is a good place if you want to know what is really going on in the Lib Dems. The latest issue 420 is now out and I particularly recommend one article A LONG ROAD HOME
Getting the UK back into the European Union can only be a long-term goal, though one helped by Brexit’s manifest failings, says Nick Harvey (Lib Dem MP for North Devon 1992-2015 and now Chief Executive of the European Movement) Amidst these truly dreadful outcomes, it is small wonder that public attitudes are shifting. Whereas 48% thought Brexit a bad idea in June 2016, around 60% do now. Superficially, this might look as though reversing the disaster might be imminent, but sadly things are more complicated.
Three epic hurdles must be cleared before we regain our rightful place at the heart of Europe. Firstly, a British Government must take an enormous, indeed existential, gamble by applying for accession.
Secondly, the EU must be convinced that joining is the “settled will of the British people” and that a different government wouldn’t take us back out again – or at least resume the in/out psychodrama (in practice, we must deliver either the Conservative Party, or proportional representation).
Thirdly, the British public must vote resoundingly to join and put the issue to bed (52:48 the other way would be no good.)
Only when that public vote looks convincingly ‘in the bag’ can the first two happen. We will need to sustain a big majority for joining over a period of time before Westminster or Brussels will be convinced. My challenge, and that of all pro-European campaigners, is to work out how to get there.
At present, though 60% think Brexit has failed, less than 20% want to reopen the debate or have another referendum. So, support as yet is far too soft to withstand ‘enemy fire’ (something Lib Dem strategies have sometimes forgotten). The public may be fed up, but they are still suffering post-traumatic stress disorder from 2016 and the 2019 People’s Vote battle and many just don’t want those wounds reopening.
There is a big jump between admitting that Brexit has failed and supporting the case to join the EU again.
There are some people out there who think going back into the EU will be easy. They are the ones who most need to read this article Couldn't agree more with the last paragraph. Associative / reciprocal agreements are the future.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 5, 2023 19:13:05 GMT
We've just seen the biggest drop in global life expectancy ever recorded, with a full 2 years knocked off average lifespan. I mentioned 20 years knocked off life expectancy by the 1918 flu epidemic (in the US anyway). And estimated the cost in life years of the HIV epidemic as 1.7 billion, compared to 7 million for covid.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 5, 2023 19:13:32 GMT
“Rishi Sunak has suffered one of the biggest rebellions of his premiership as dozens of Tory MPs, including Suella Braverman and Dame Priti Patel, voted against his net zero plans.
The two former home secretaries joined backbenchers to oppose a quota on sales of electric cars.
The measure was passed with Labour’s support on Monday evening but will be a worry to Mr Sunak as Tory rebels reached the “magic number” of 26 – the number of Tory MPs that would overturn his majority.
It came minutes after he suffered his first defeat in the House of Commons, with MPs – including 22 Conservatives – voting to speed up compensation for victims of the infected blood scandal.
Senior Tories are worried that Mr Sunak, who in September announced that a ban on sales of petrol and diesel cars would be pushed back by five years, is reneging on the commitment.”
Telegraph
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