|
Post by alec on Dec 5, 2023 10:19:44 GMT
Danny - "I have repeatedly asked how 'age standardisation' works and have yet to find a sensible answer." Apart from the actual statistical methodology used by actuaries and experts in population dynamics, which is a standard, completely accepted scientific methodology, and which I have directed you to on three separate occasions now? "So I simply side stepped this entirely, its a total red herring." I bet you did. You really don't like evidence and facts, so I'm not surprised you're frightened to address the truth. Unless you have something sensible to say I'm going to ignore you for a while. Respond if you feel a burning desire to, but please do so on the covid thread. I won't respond. And copying voluminous daft posts on both the main and covid threads doesn't work either. If you're talking shite, copying it to another thread doesn't make any more sensible.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,089
|
Post by steve on Dec 5, 2023 10:41:49 GMT
Just had a thought the traitor insists on a totally fact free basis of course that he won the 2020 presidential election and is therefore still really President. Fine why not agree with him.
That means he's term limited and can't stand for 2024!
|
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,074
|
Post by domjg on Dec 5, 2023 10:50:08 GMT
"Is the Conservative party about to absorb the Reform Party" - That's kind of what they've been trying to do since Cameron called the referendum really but they needed to take for granted that their moderate, home counties base would stay on board. Enough of them are finally no longer willing to do that.
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Dec 5, 2023 11:09:47 GMT
Elliott has become a diminished character in the journalistic world. He's clearly a very erudite economist and fine writer, and on the left too in terms of his politics, but Brexit, which he supported, and its after effects has rather punctured his balloon and damaged his self confidence. It's sad to see the painful contortions he continues to deploy to justify his original "Lexiteer" position. Some of them have even drawn him in to back-handedly supporting/defending Tory and Johnsonian policies. He is finding it almost impossible to concede that he may have been mistaken. He's an intelligent and rational man, and can still write incisively on economic matters, but he's becoming slowly ever more intellectually discredited by his wriggling on Brexit. The latest straw that he's clutching at is that brexit (which of course delivered nothing those who voted for it expected) was a kind of 'release valve' for populist discontentment that has supposedly allowed us to avoid the shift to voting for far right parties seen in the Netherlands and Italy etc. I really don't think there's been any release of discontentment in this country has there? More precisely the opposite. When your main supposedly centre right party dons the clothes of those parties on the extreme there's less need for an overtly immigrant bashing party is there and we all wait with trepidation to see what horror they'll transform into after they lose the election. I think this is a classic example of one of Elliott's rather ludicrous contortions that I was mentioning. As others have already mentioned, our electoral system has been a bulwark against Far Right and Far Left parties prospering as they have done in some EU countries where assemblies are much more representative of how people have voted. This, if course, is a back-handed compliment to our obsolete FPTP voting system. The moral case for depriving parties of due assembly representation just because you disapprove of them is a bankrupt one from a democratic point of view. You should argue them away not rig them away. In my view, Elliott's point is spurious anyway. Brexit was no safety valve for the harmless outlet of opinion that would have otherwise manifested itself in electoral support for extreme right and left wing parties. It injected a poison into our political discourse that still infects it to this day and allowed our hitherto mainstream centre right party to be both entered and now steered by quasi far right wing MPs, members and opinions. Let's forget the diplomatic and economic damage Brexit may have done for now. The damage done to our political system may have been irreparable. Elliott has always seemed mysteriously silent on this point. A price worth paying he may think.
|
|
|
Post by leftieliberal on Dec 5, 2023 11:20:26 GMT
|
|
|
Post by graham on Dec 5, 2023 11:20:53 GMT
I would say that the defeat for the Government in the Commons yesterday on their proposed bill for dealing with the victims of the HIV infected blood transfusion scandal is our legislature working at its very best. As it tends to do too via the Select Committee procedure. Anything, in other words, that takes us away from the whipped and self-serving lobby fodder and executive bullying that characterises most of our law making. A very sensible and important amendment to a piece of deficient legislation put down by an opposition backbencher that then garners a majority in the Commons from across all parties. Our elected representatives behaving in a way that not only improves our laws but also reflects public opinion too. A very good day for our faltering democracy in Parliament yesterday. www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/dec/05/rishi-sunak-suffers-first-parliamentary-defeat-in-infected-blood-voteA good result though I could not help but notice that one of the Tory rebels was my own MP - Chloe Smith. She has always been an ultra loyalist who supported Johnson to the bitter end. Easy to find a conscience after being sacked and when she has announced she is to stand down at the GE.
|
|
|
Post by hireton on Dec 5, 2023 11:32:14 GMT
It looks like Labour has u-turned on ending the Minimum Income Requirement for UK spousal visas judging by Cooper's reported comments this morning:
"We think the Migration Advisory Committee should look at this very swiftly before it is introduced, particularly at the impact this is going to have on British citizens who fall in love across borders.
But she said that she approved in principle of people being required to support family members coming to the UK. And she complained the new rule had “come out of thin air”.
Asked if she would retain this rule if it were in force when a Labour government came into office, Cooper just repeated her call for the MAC to review this. It had not been reviewed for 10 years, she said. She also warned that the plan could lead to an increase in people marrying foreigners before the new limit comes into force."
|
|
|
Post by leftieliberal on Dec 5, 2023 12:00:19 GMT
Ben Walker in New Statesman Is Labour or the SNP leading in Scotland?
Contradictory polls are explained by different estimates of the scale of defections from the SNP to Scottish Labour. In Scotland, as in England, tactical voting is likely to play a key role at the next election: traditional Scottish Conservative supporters may lend their support to Scottish Labour – now confirmed as the SNP’s biggest rival – with fewer Labour voters moving in the opposite direction in Tory-SNP contests. One of the joys of Scottish local elections is that they operate according to a preferential voting system, allowing us to see how many Scottish Tory voters have been willing to give Labour their second-preference vote. Analysis of recent by-elections shows this applies to as many as 20-30 per cent of Conservative supporters (with 10-20 per cent of Labour voters second-preferencing the Tories). For logged-on activists in England, Labour voters willingly going Tory and vice versa may seem baffling. But in Scotland, proportional voting systems and divisions over independence have promoted “unionist fluidity”. Since Labour’s poll ratings make it the SNP’s strongest opponent in a majority of seats, enough Tory voters may back Starmer’s party to hand it overall victory.
|
|
|
Post by Mark on Dec 5, 2023 12:05:07 GMT
pjw1961 Objectively like him or not Nick Clegg was a consummate campaigner in 2010. In televised debates he effectively ignored both Brown and Cameron stared straight at the camera and addressed the watching audience, a tactic never used in UK political debate it worked and left the other two resorting to " I agree with Nick" at points during the campaign it looked as if in voting numbers it might have been a three way tie. My personal opinion of Clegg was as Tories go he wasn't the worst ever.Shame he was leading a centre left party. While I don't think Clegg had the gravitas of Kennedy or Ashdown, there was no doubt he did extremely well in the debates. Much of the tactics he employed (eg, talking straight down the camera) were pretty basic GCSE Media Studies stuff...but, proved effective. I remember the Saturday aftr the first debate, I was on a stall in town with UAF (Unite Against Fascism), we had said stall and were giving out leaflets in the city centre, tying to persuade people not to vote BNP. The leaflets back then were a different colour with each run...and not having anticipated what was called "Cleggmania", this time, our leaflets were yellow. I had loads of people come up to me saying "I really liked your guy in the debates" - a lot of people thought we were LibDems! As to the present, I can see the LibDems getting 35, maybe even 40 seats on the back of ABT votes....I may be proved wrong, but, I can't see Ed Davey pulling off a Clegg in the campaign/TV debates. He comes across to me as decent but grey. Personally, I think they chose the wrong leader, Layla Moran, as well as being someone not involved in the coalition, is someone with a lot of prsonality as well as someone with very obviously heart felt beliefs as well as being very eloquent and also down to earth. I really do think the LibDems missed a trick there.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,089
|
Post by steve on Dec 5, 2023 12:23:25 GMT
Little bit of fun , without using a translation app anyone know what this language is.
"Ba al dakizu zein den hizkuntza hau"
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,089
|
Post by steve on Dec 5, 2023 12:25:40 GMT
@mark Well given that I voted for Layla have to agree on that one. Ed Davey is a genuinely nice man, hope it comes across in the election campaign.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,089
|
Post by steve on Dec 5, 2023 12:33:08 GMT
leftieliberalThat particular opinion piece didn't have a comment option. Not particularly surprising as having several hundred versions of " fuck off you Tory apologist" might have upset poor Larry.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,089
|
Post by steve on Dec 5, 2023 12:34:11 GMT
Ben Walker in New Statesman Is Labour or the SNP leading in Scotland
The answer is yes!
|
|
|
Post by somerjohn on Dec 5, 2023 12:38:51 GMT
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Dec 5, 2023 12:40:49 GMT
I agree with you about the poverty of Elliott's arguments but, in defence of the Guardian he's not representing the editorial stance of the newspaper. They are affording him column space to air his views and he is still their Economics Editor, I think. One of the things I like about the Guardian's comments section is its diversity of opinion. From Simon Jenkins, Katy Balls and Isobel Hardman all the way to Owen Jones and Aditya Chakrabortty. With Rafael Behr and Martin Kettle in between, keeping old centrists like me happy!! I can't think of another national newspaper with that range of political opinion amongst its regular contributors.
|
|
|
Post by wb61 on Dec 5, 2023 12:51:12 GMT
I agree with you about the poverty of Elliott's arguments but, in defence of the Guardian he's not representing the editorial stance of the newspaper. They are affording him column space to air his views and he is still their Economics Editor, I think. One of the things I like about the Guardian's comments section is its diversity of opinion. From Simon Jenkins, Katy Balls and Isobel Hardman all the way to Owen Jones and Aditya Chakrabortty. With Rafael Behr and Martin Kettle in between, keeping old centrists like me happy!! I can't think of another national newspaper with that range of political opinion amongst its regular contributors. Always thought Bill Keegan was a much better economics journalist than Elliot, albeit that, apart from Brexit, Elliot has always been closer to my political views. Bill Keegan explains the failures of Neoliberal economics particularly well and his Keynsenist approach is quite clear from every article
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,318
|
Post by pjw1961 on Dec 5, 2023 12:55:19 GMT
The Tories have had 13 years to sort out energy security so the lights stay on in winter. Blackouts will be yet another reminder of the incompetence of the so called 'government'. They won't even be able to blame coal miners this time.
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Dec 5, 2023 13:03:24 GMT
I agree with you about the poverty of Elliott's arguments but, in defence of the Guardian he's not representing the editorial stance of the newspaper. They are affording him column space to air his views and he is still their Economics Editor, I think. One of the things I like about the Guardian's comments section is its diversity of opinion. From Simon Jenkins, Katy Balls and Isobel Hardman all the way to Owen Jones and Aditya Chakrabortty. With Rafael Behr and Martin Kettle in between, keeping old centrists like me happy!! I can't think of another national newspaper with that range of political opinion amongst its regular contributors. Always thought Bill Keegan was a much better economics journalist than Elliot, albeit that, apart from Brexit, Elliot has always been closer to my political views. Bill Keegan explains the failures of Neoliberal economics particularly well and his Keynsenist approach is quite clear from every article Agree about Keegan. I always liked his first Observer column after Major's surprising 1992 election win that extended 13 years of Tory government by at least another five to 18. There was despair amongst many on the Left but defiance from Keegan. He asked himself a question that he then answered himself. What are we to do? Keegan's answer. Keep kicking the bastards. And he did!
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 9,605
|
Post by Danny on Dec 5, 2023 13:10:56 GMT
I'm going to ignore you for a while. All you have replied thus far are insults. anyone can look back at the pattern. I posted some data showing UK deaths have risen 5000 a year since con took office. You quoted a paper on higher than expected deaths after covid, which however did not take this into account. I argued that when you do allow for this, then actually there is a shortfall of deaths, implying covid killed fewer than believed. And your only reply is bluster. The real issue here is that the NHS can only treat as many people as its budget allows. It rations care to the cases where there will be most benefit. The rest are left to die. Con chose to spend less money than lab planned, and the death rate rose. Completely unsurprising. Of course, lab dont seem to be addressing this either. Neither side seems willing to say they choose not to treat people but instead leve them to die. Its somewhat jarring compared to the claims during covid that money is no object. Even then there was an NHS report saying the cost of interventions was way high compared to the cost of saving a life in normal times, which politicians refuse to pay. Such hypocrisy.
|
|
|
Post by alec on Dec 5, 2023 13:17:51 GMT
Danny - "All you have replied thus far are insults." No Danny - that's a straightforward lie. What I've actually done - repeatedly - is to direct you to the methodology for calculating excess deaths which you pretend doesn't exist, and in doing, I point out how ridiculous your false claims on death rates are. If you can't deal with evidence, don't accuse those who can of insulting you. We're trying to educate you.
|
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,074
|
Post by domjg on Dec 5, 2023 13:18:10 GMT
pjw1961 Objectively like him or not Nick Clegg was a consummate campaigner in 2010. In televised debates he effectively ignored both Brown and Cameron stared straight at the camera and addressed the watching audience, a tactic never used in UK political debate it worked and left the other two resorting to " I agree with Nick" at points during the campaign it looked as if in voting numbers it might have been a three way tie. My personal opinion of Clegg was as Tories go he wasn't the worst ever.Shame he was leading a centre left party. While I don't think Clegg had the gravitas of Kennedy or Ashdown, there was no doubt he did extremely well in the debates. Much of the tactics he employed (eg, talking straight down the camera) were pretty basic GCSE Media Studies stuff...but, proved effective. I remember the Saturday aftr the first debate, I was on a stall in town with UAF (Unite Against Fascism), we had said stall and were giving out leaflets in the city centre, tying to persuade people not to vote BNP. The leaflets back then were a different colour with each run...and not having anticipated what was called "Cleggmania", this time, our leaflets were yellow. I had loads of people come up to me saying "I really liked your guy in the debates" - a lot of people thought we were LibDems! As to the present, I can see the LibDems getting 35, maybe even 40 seats on the back of ABT votes....I may be proved wrong, but, I can't see Ed Davey pulling off a Clegg in the campaign/TV debates. He comes across to me as decent but grey. Personally, I think they chose the wrong leader, Layla Moran, as well as being someone not involved in the coalition, is someone with a lot of prsonality as well as someone with very obviously heart felt beliefs as well as being very eloquent and also down to earth. I really do think the LibDems missed a trick there. I don't think we've seen the last of Ms. Moran. She's MP for Oxford West and Abingdon which I'm just outside the boundary of now and she makes herself pretty visible around here, frequently commenting in the local press. From those who have known her I get the impression she's quite ambitious.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,089
|
Post by steve on Dec 5, 2023 13:24:52 GMT
There are currently 152000 vacancies in health and social care outside of the nhs. The xenophobia obsessed regime has decided that in order to pander to its xenophobic base that it's a great idea to refuse permission to migrant carers travelling from thousands of miles away to bring their families. When European union citizens working in care were made to feel similarly unwelcome they left, hence the shortage of staff.
What could possibly go wrong!
Not so clever Cleverly
No. 10 rejected suggestions from the care sector that the immigration changes could worsen the situation.
Of course they did. How dare the care sector presume to know more about the care sector than they do?
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 9,605
|
Post by Danny on Dec 5, 2023 13:26:05 GMT
As others have already mentioned, our electoral system has been a bulwark against Far Right and Far Left parties prospering as they have done in some EU countries where assemblies are much more representative of how people have voted. This, if course, is a back-handed compliment to our obsolete FPTP voting system. Has it really done this? Or is it simply coincidence and luck we have gone so long before it fell apart. Dont forget, universal suffrage only began last century, which presumably made voters all happy the were getting their say. Then we had ww2, a national emergency where the two main parties pulled together. After the war voters demanded big changes, threw out con and lab started to deliver. Con jumped on board and we had a period where wealth flowed to the poor. But then along came Thatcher, and ever since this has gone into reverse. 30 year of con rule where they reverted to trying to enrich the wealthy, and 15 years of lab rule which was more caring Thatcherism than classic labour. So thats two crises, first after ww2 where voters demanded change and parties gave it to them, and then now where we are told voters dissatisfied with what government had been doing got on the bandwagon of opposing the recommendations of the government to stay in the EU simply to give them a bloody nose. Which of course only made matters worse in terms of benefitting the poor. Labour in 97 totally failed to represent the serious left, while of course the right werent happy with them, but they had a centrist concensus. The final upshot of 100 years experience has been growing disaffection with the system which simply does not represent what anyone actually wants.
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 9,605
|
Post by Danny on Dec 5, 2023 13:29:33 GMT
A good result though I could not help but notice that one of the Tory rebels was my own MP - Chloe Smith. She has always been an ultra loyalist who supported Johnson to the bitter end. Easy to find a conscience after being sacked and when she has announced she is to stand down at the GE. Impossible to find a conscience before you are sacked, because it is a condition of being a party MP that you always vote and speak in favour of centrally decided policy. If you dont, then you get thrown out.
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 9,605
|
Post by Danny on Dec 5, 2023 13:31:20 GMT
It looks like Labour has u-turned on ending the Minimum Income Requirement for UK spousal visas judging by Cooper's reported comments this morning: "We think the Migration Advisory Committee should look at this very swiftly before it is introduced, particularly at the impact this is going to have on British citizens who fall in love across borders. But she said that she approved in principle of people being required to support family members coming to the UK. And she complained the new rule had “come out of thin air”. Its very questionable if the privilege of Brtish citizenship or residency is simply something to be purchased. And rights are denied to poor UK citizens whose ancestors have been here for generations. More of a case for someone granted rights to live here not automatically acquiring full settled citizens rights to bring in spouses etc as well. Certainly a case to create a class of residency which does not have these extra rights attached, because the whole point is they are classed as temporary workers even if its for decades. Should they arrive and then marry full UK citizens, well fair enough then their citizen other half has rights to entitle them to stay.
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 9,605
|
Post by Danny on Dec 5, 2023 13:46:29 GMT
One of the joys of Scottish local elections is that they operate according to a preferential voting system, allowing us to see how many Scottish Tory voters have been willing to give Labour their second-preference vote. Analysis of recent by-elections shows this applies to as many as 20-30 per cent of Conservative supporters (with 10-20 per cent of Labour voters second-preferencing the Tories). Maybe it is nothing to do with scottish inependence, but that the SNP is the most socialist mainstream political party in the UK, by comparison not much to tell apart lab and con?
|
|
|
Post by graham on Dec 5, 2023 14:23:13 GMT
A good result though I could not help but notice that one of the Tory rebels was my own MP - Chloe Smith. She has always been an ultra loyalist who supported Johnson to the bitter end. Easy to find a conscience after being sacked and when she has announced she is to stand down at the GE. Impossible to find a conscience before you are sacked, because it is a condition of being a party MP that you always vote and speak in favour of centrally decided policy. If you dont, then you get thrown out. Not true - Ministers have resigned when they feel unable to support policies. Chloe Smith was a strong Johnson supporter from the outset in mid- 2019 until he resigned three years later. She merits little respect.
|
|
|
Post by leftieliberal on Dec 5, 2023 14:49:33 GMT
Liberator magazine is a good place if you want to know what is really going on in the Lib Dems. The latest issue 420 is now out and I particularly recommend one article A LONG ROAD HOME
Getting the UK back into the European Union can only be a long-term goal, though one helped by Brexit’s manifest failings, says Nick Harvey (Lib Dem MP for North Devon 1992-2015 and now Chief Executive of the European Movement) Amidst these truly dreadful outcomes, it is small wonder that public attitudes are shifting. Whereas 48% thought Brexit a bad idea in June 2016, around 60% do now. Superficially, this might look as though reversing the disaster might be imminent, but sadly things are more complicated.
Three epic hurdles must be cleared before we regain our rightful place at the heart of Europe. Firstly, a British Government must take an enormous, indeed existential, gamble by applying for accession.
Secondly, the EU must be convinced that joining is the “settled will of the British people” and that a different government wouldn’t take us back out again – or at least resume the in/out psychodrama (in practice, we must deliver either the Conservative Party, or proportional representation).
Thirdly, the British public must vote resoundingly to join and put the issue to bed (52:48 the other way would be no good.)
Only when that public vote looks convincingly ‘in the bag’ can the first two happen. We will need to sustain a big majority for joining over a period of time before Westminster or Brussels will be convinced. My challenge, and that of all pro-European campaigners, is to work out how to get there.
At present, though 60% think Brexit has failed, less than 20% want to reopen the debate or have another referendum. So, support as yet is far too soft to withstand ‘enemy fire’ (something Lib Dem strategies have sometimes forgotten). The public may be fed up, but they are still suffering post-traumatic stress disorder from 2016 and the 2019 People’s Vote battle and many just don’t want those wounds reopening.
There is a big jump between admitting that Brexit has failed and supporting the case to join the EU again.
There are some people out there who think going back into the EU will be easy. They are the ones who most need to read this article
|
|
|
Post by moby on Dec 5, 2023 15:13:49 GMT
It looks like Labour has u-turned on ending the Minimum Income Requirement for UK spousal visas judging by Cooper's reported comments this morning: "We think the Migration Advisory Committee should look at this very swiftly before it is introduced, particularly at the impact this is going to have on British citizens who fall in love across borders. But she said that she approved in principle of people being required to support family members coming to the UK. And she complained the new rule had “come out of thin air”. Its very questionable if the privilege of Brtish citizenship or residency is simply something to be purchased. And rights are denied to poor UK citizens whose ancestors have been here for generations. More of a case for someone granted rights to live here not automatically acquiring full settled citizens rights to bring in spouses etc as well. Certainly a case to create a class of residency which does not have these extra rights attached, because the whole point is they are classed as temporary workers even if its for decades. Should they arrive and then marry full UK citizens, well fair enough then their citizen other half has rights to entitle them to stay. So if you are rich you can get your partner into the country but poor people can't.
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,318
|
Post by pjw1961 on Dec 5, 2023 15:24:25 GMT
Try not to get ill over Christmas. The Junior Doctors will be on strike from 7 a.m. 20th Dec to 7 a.m. 23 Dec, and again for six days 7 a.m. 3 Jan to 7 a.m. 9 January. Once more the belligerent hostility of the Conservative government to what is an eminently solvable situation is going to cost the nation dearly.
|
|