neilj
Member
Posts: 5,908
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on Dec 5, 2023 7:09:00 GMT
Besides the embarrassment of losing the vote that £20 billion spending commitment is going to seriously limit his ability for further tax cuts. Taken with the likely effects of limits om immigration has on growing the economy he will have no headroom at all Most of all though good news for the victims
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 9,605
|
Post by Danny on Dec 5, 2023 7:10:04 GMT
By March 21 the uk had administerd 20 million doses and 2 million second doses, though it had maybe 400 million on order. Those 20 million were for people over 55, and would have been the most beneficial of all the doses ever given. I'm aware there were hopes of mass vaccinating the entire population to create total herd immunity to covid and therefore eradicate it, but that never worked at all. Had we stopped at that time, then we would have already achieved the majority of the benefit from vaccines, at 1/20 the cost. Yes, there was an expectation of second doses but they do not give as much benefit as first doses. In particular again its about this business of trying to eradicate the disease. And thats before we get to whether this huge vaccination program actually created the current situation of constantly circulating mild covid which is causing the ongoing covid deaths.
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 9,605
|
Post by Danny on Dec 5, 2023 7:11:16 GMT
Surely, even by Johnson's standards, the raid would have been a bridge too far. And people argue Thatcher is too far back in History to mention?
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 9,605
|
Post by Danny on Dec 5, 2023 7:21:32 GMT
Interest rates are no higher today than was the case for much of the 1960s when the Treasury was in the hands of Reginald Maudling , James Callaghan and Roy Jenkins. Bank rate was then frequently in the range of 6% - 8% - rather higher than current rates.Of course, they appear high relative to where rates stood 2008 - 2022 but that simply reflects the absurdly low levels at which rates were kept for so long. Effectively rates have been normalised rather than having been raised to historically high levels. The other big difference is house prices have risen substantially more than wages, meaning people have to borrow a lot more. So that even a couple of percent increase in interest rates can leave people in serious financial trouble The other other difference is that in a sustained period of high interest people had adjusted their finances accordingly. Right now they are still trying to adjust from the expectation interest would remain low forever, or at least until their loans were paid off. This process will be ongoing for years hitting more people as their fixed rates expire.
The story in the housing market right now seems to be that chains of homes to buy and sell are impossible to achieve. There isnt much property on the market, which suggests people cannot afford to move. As the pain continues to mount, even if interest rates were to drop back a bit which seems doubtful, the risk is some of these are forced to sell and a general collapse of house prices begins. This could happen next spring, which is the best time of year for house sales. Just in time for a spring election, well maybe not, but a generalised collapse in house prices would not help tory support at an election end of the year.
|
|
|
Post by moby on Dec 5, 2023 7:22:27 GMT
Besides the embarrassment of losing the vote that £20 billion spending commitment is going to seriously limit his ability for further tax cuts. Taken with the likely effects of limits om immigration has on growing the economy he will have no headroom at all Most of all though good news for the victims A father of a child who died when he was seven due to infected blood was on the radio this morning. He said none of the child's teachers wanted him at school and the family were subjected to terrible abuse due to prejudice over AIDS and had all the windows of their home smashed. Apparently half of the victims of this scandal are already dead and yet this Govmt tried to delay the issuing of compensation even further.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,089
|
Post by steve on Dec 5, 2023 7:25:39 GMT
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 9,605
|
Post by Danny on Dec 5, 2023 7:27:56 GMT
The best justification I heard was from a fellow law student in the 1980's who said "killing people who aren't trying to hurt you is wrong". But surely all war criminals would claim the people concerned were hurting them. Even if simply by occupying property you wanted.
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 9,605
|
Post by Danny on Dec 5, 2023 7:31:27 GMT
For those interested, I've just posted a recent paper over on the covid thread detailing how mild covid had a significant impact on lung oxygen uptake in firefighters for up to 300 days post infection. The results were stated as having implications for the operation and safety of firefighting crews. Lots of this kind of stuff coming through. You did not make a reasoned response to my post arguing covid deaths have been exaggerated in the Uk because we would have expected deaths to be significantly above the 5 year average, because it was on a rising trend adding 5000 extra each year. Essentially, many would have died anyway. Just how low does covid death rate have to go befoe you accept it is just an ordinary disease not worthy of special measures more than others? On your post about the headwinds to growth, I have to say you forgot one; covid will remain a drag on growth for some time, I fear. Currently, 1.5% of the working age population have been added to the long term sick category since 2020, after a period where this flatlined. Not all of this is due to covid, but a good deal of it is, directly or indirectly. I think this will be a significant problem in the next few years. On the other hand, bumping off 150,000 extra older people has redistributed their wealth to younger generations, who will be spending it and boosting the economy. The real economic damage from covid was due to mass lockdowns, and that was the fault of human choices not the disease. There is little evidence lockdowns preventin people going to work did much good for the national health. It was more of a last ditch desperate measure when all other more effective means of slowing spread had already been tried (and also failed). (For example, SAGE reckoned closing schools by itself reduced spread as much as all the other measures put together)
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,089
|
Post by steve on Dec 5, 2023 7:53:41 GMT
|
|
|
Post by alec on Dec 5, 2023 7:57:13 GMT
Danny - "You did not make a reasoned response to my post arguing covid deaths have been exaggerated in the Uk because we would have expected deaths to be significantly above the 5 year average, because it was on a rising trend adding 5000 extra each year." I didn't make a reasoned response because you are deliberately impervious to fact and reason, as you have just proven here. You have repeatedly failed to grasp the basic facts about ongoing mortality measures: the statistical methods employed are designed to capture and negate the impact of an ageing population, so that a simple 'like for like' measure - age standardised mortality - is derived from which we can accurately measure trends in life expectancy. It's very, very simple, but you're inability to deploy reason seems to block you from seeing this. This leads to the fact that your central premise is completely wrong. Normally (and by normal, what I mean is what has been happening all over the world for around a century now, significantly longer in the UK) death rates have been falling. If you just try to factor this fact into your thinking, and then address the issues, you'll start to understand. We should be in an environment where excess deaths are negative year on year. The situation is therefore actually much worse than the % excess deaths, because you need to add this overshoot to the anticipated annual improvement. I don't think this is a very hard concept to grasp, unless you are being willfully malevolent in your posting.
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Dec 5, 2023 8:19:51 GMT
I would say that the defeat for the Government in the Commons yesterday on their proposed bill for dealing with the victims of the HIV infected blood transfusion scandal is our legislature working at its very best. As it tends to do too via the Select Committee procedure. Anything, in other words, that takes us away from the whipped and self-serving lobby fodder and executive bullying that characterises most of our law making. A very sensible and important amendment to a piece of deficient legislation put down by an opposition backbencher that then garners a majority in the Commons from across all parties. Our elected representatives behaving in a way that not only improves our laws but also reflects public opinion too. A very good day for our faltering democracy in Parliament yesterday. www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/dec/05/rishi-sunak-suffers-first-parliamentary-defeat-in-infected-blood-vote
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 9,605
|
Post by Danny on Dec 5, 2023 8:26:18 GMT
Q to government minister Robert jenrick on R4, "is it true that the policy of driving hamas out of Gaza has become driving all Gazans out if Gaza" (approx)
Ans by minister "We support Israel"
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Dec 5, 2023 8:26:35 GMT
colin ... It wasn't long ago that you were arguing that Kwarteng and Truss may be about to ignite a beacon of hope and economic salvation for us, then when that hit the rocks, possibly Sunak and Hunt, the only honest adults in the room, might ride to the rescue. You promised us honesty and realism with them but now, with Starmer looking like he's shortly to take over the reins, all we have to look forward to, it would appear, is fantasy, self-delusion, dishonesty and disappointment. You've given up on Starmer very very early but, maybe, despite your record on Johnson and the rest, you know something we don't. So, if Starmer's not up to it, who is? Kemi Badenoch I suppose. Unlike you to launch an unprovoked attack on a returning poster. Welcome back colin by the way. I was provoked by Colin's post. Unjustified? Maybe. Unfair? Possibly. But not unprovoked. 🤔😋 P.S. Colin provokes me by just being Colin and being here. I no doubt have exactly the same effect on him. If he didn't exist, I'd have to invent him. He may feel the same about me too, but might well want to disinvent me. It makes the UKPR world go around.
|
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,074
|
Post by domjg on Dec 5, 2023 8:27:01 GMT
Surely it's time to send Larry Elliott to the donkey sanctuary along with all the other 'Tony Benn, he live' lexiters stuck in the 1970s? Maybe he'd enjoy the one that's supposedly in Starmer's family?
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 5,908
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on Dec 5, 2023 8:30:18 GMT
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 9,605
|
Post by Danny on Dec 5, 2023 8:30:42 GMT
The government has decided to destroy the health, social care and university sectors to appease the racists on their backbenches. Not at all, it isnt racist its wealthist. The government support a widening wealth gap and trickle down of wealth from the poor to the rich. So called because the poor dont have much so its only a trickle, but all adds up when there are millions of them. They believe the poorer you make em, the harder they will work to enrich the wealthy yet further. The irony is that in reality the rich make most if the poor have enough wealth to buy lots of stuff made in factories belonging to the rich. Although that too is problematic, because it frequently relies upon throwing away goods and built in obsolescence.
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 9,605
|
Post by Danny on Dec 5, 2023 8:39:45 GMT
Besides the embarrassment of losing the vote that £20 billion spending commitment is going to seriously limit his ability for further tax cuts. Taken with the likely effects of limits om immigration has on growing the economy he will have no headroom at all It seems they are still retaining the earnings waiver for shortage workers. Which is most of the immigrants. It struck me timed correctly removing this could be beneficial for a late election. If we got a years worth of no new care workers it would slash immigration numbers, but the worst effects on health would not be visible for a while, not till after the election.
|
|
|
Post by alec on Dec 5, 2023 8:42:05 GMT
For those interested, I've just posted a summary of the current state of play with covid in the US, which is a few weeks ahead of the UK with the JN.1 variant. Very sharp rises in cases, and strong signals of hospital admissions climbing very steeply where JN.1 is dominant. Christmas in the US is going to be difficult, we'll be some way behind.
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Dec 5, 2023 8:53:17 GMT
Surely it's time to send Larry Elliott to the donkey sanctuary along with all the other 'Tony Benn, he live' lexiters stuck in the 1970s? Maybe he'd enjoy the one that's supposedly in Starmer's family? Elliott has become a diminished character in the journalistic world. He's clearly a very erudite economist and fine writer, and on the left too in terms of his politics, but Brexit, which he supported, and its after effects has rather punctured his balloon and damaged his self confidence. It's sad to see the painful contortions he continues to deploy to justify his original "Lexiteer" position. Some of them have even drawn him in to back-handedly supporting/defending Tory and Johnsonian policies. He is finding it almost impossible to concede that he may have been mistaken. He's an intelligent and rational man, and can still write incisively on economic matters, but he's becoming slowly ever more intellectually discredited by his wriggling on Brexit.
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 9,605
|
Post by Danny on Dec 5, 2023 8:57:55 GMT
Danny - "You did not make a reasoned response to my post arguing covid deaths have been exaggerated in the Uk because we would have expected deaths to be significantly above the 5 year average, because it was on a rising trend adding 5000 extra each year." I didn't make a reasoned response because you are deliberately impervious to fact and reason, as you have just proven here. You have repeatedly failed to grasp the basic facts about ongoing mortality measures: the statistical methods employed are designed to capture and negate the impact of an ageing population, so that a simple 'like for like' measure - age standardised mortality - is derived from which we can accurately measure trends in life expectancy. I have repeatedly asked how 'age standardisation' works and have yet to find a sensible answer. So I simply side stepped this entirely, its a total red herring. I'm not comparing the Uk to the rest of the world where there are indeed all sorts of problems with differing population age profiles. But simply looking at the UK, I pointed out how under con the death rate was rising 5000 a year before covid, whereas under lab it was falling 5000 a year. That implies con policy has killed an extra 10,000 a year, or by now about half a million people. But leaving that aside, the pre covid figures were a rise of 5,000 each year and there is no reason to think absent covid this would have changed. If covid forced the government to spend more on health, then it saved some of those people. I have no idea how you would want to 'age standardise' these figures? Simply put then, you have no actual argument beyond waffle to refute my calculation covid deaths are over stated? Its not really about covid, its about the fact con policy has caused more to die, and that was totally deliberate. They simply picked a lower priority for health care, preferring the old die faster. I dont really understand why you want to help them try to hide this behind covid. we would be in an NHS crisis right now if covid had never existed. Just as we were at the end of the Thatcher era. (though actually if you looked at the graph I posted, Thatcher era saw deaths were falling not rising. This lot did worse. Though its possible Thatcher benefitted from the destruction of Uk heavy industry they presided over, which was a big cause of early death)
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 9,605
|
Post by Danny on Dec 5, 2023 8:58:56 GMT
I would say that the defeat for the Government in the Commons yesterday on their proposed bill for dealing with the victims of the HIV infected blood transfusion scandal is our legislature working at its very best. Its not very good then at all. Thats 40 years after the event.
|
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,074
|
Post by domjg on Dec 5, 2023 9:01:27 GMT
Surely it's time to send Larry Elliott to the donkey sanctuary along with all the other 'Tony Benn, he live' lexiters stuck in the 1970s? Maybe he'd enjoy the one that's supposedly in Starmer's family? Elliott has become a diminished character in the journalistic world. He's clearly a very erudite economist and fine writer, and on the left too in terms of his politics, but Brexit, which he supported, and its after effects has rather punctured his balloon and damaged his self confidence. It's sad to see the painful contortions he continues to deploy to justify his original "Lexiteer" position. Some of them have even drawn him in to back-handedly supporting/defending Tory and Johnsonian policies. He is finding it almost impossible to concede that he may have been mistaken. He's an intelligent and rational man, and can still write incisively on economic matters, but he's becoming slowly ever more intellectually discredited by his wriggling on Brexit. The latest straw that he's clutching at is that brexit (which of course delivered nothing those who voted for it expected) was a kind of 'release valve' for populist discontentment that has supposedly allowed us to avoid the shift to voting for far right parties seen in the Netherlands and Italy etc. I really don't think there's been any release of discontentment in this country has there? More precisely the opposite. When your main supposedly centre right party dons the clothes of those parties on the extreme there's less need for an overtly immigrant bashing party is there and we all wait with trepidation to see what horror they'll transform into after they lose the election.
|
|
|
Post by hireton on Dec 5, 2023 9:04:41 GMT
"Imagine getting the news just before Christmas that your mail order bride, or groom, has been cancelled due to insufficient funds. F*****g Tories. " Interesting and revealing response from a Labour voter happily supporting a policy discriminating against the lower paid and threatening to rip families apart who are currently settled here. Here is another take on it: iandunt.substack.com/p/the-price-they-put-on-loveEven some on the far right see the issue: In addition to the basic income requirement, the requirement increases if the couple have children by a few thousand, the spouse has to pay the NHS surcharge and the visa processing cost. For a family of four that takes the cost up to about £45,000.And the income which a spouse will earn is not taken into account.
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 9,605
|
Post by Danny on Dec 5, 2023 9:05:56 GMT
For those interested, I've just posted a summary of the current state of play with covid in the US, which is a few weeks ahead of the UK with the JN.1 variant. Very sharp rises in cases, and strong signals of hospital admissions climbing very steeply where JN.1 is dominant. Christmas in the US is going to be difficult, we'll be some way behind. You mean the recession in the US will make christmas difficult? I hear they are recovering rather better than us though? They dont have the problem of brexit and an austerity led government for 13 years. If you are talking about covid, well I'm not as much of an anorak on the subject as yourself so I dont follow US case numbers, only UK ones. But on the basis of ours its seems likely there will not be another big surge in covid serious illness for decades at least given the current scale of immunity. Probably not in our lifetimes.
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 9,605
|
Post by Danny on Dec 5, 2023 9:14:41 GMT
A Peer as a Prime Minister would be reversing all the gains of the 20th Century. . Wouldnt that be he same policy then as for everything else, such as wealth equality and rights?
|
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 5,971
Member is Online
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 5, 2023 9:34:57 GMT
the recession in the US will make christmas difficult? I hear they are recovering rather better than us though? They dont have the problem of brexit and an austerity led government for 13 years. Over at the Telegraph they argue that the move left and the big green stimulus package is having its effect, along with the overhang from the Covid stimulus, worth $10,000 for a typical family of four apparently. (Harder to spend it in lockdown so it’s getting spent now). They also say the effect of having long-term fixed rate mortgages helps. So consumer spending remained buoyant, despite higher interest rates. (Of course they also argue that it may turn nasty with the extra debt and growing deficit, the effects of Covid stimulus wearing off, and looking at M2, they say it looks like the money supply has been contracting, so we shall see…)
|
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,074
|
Post by domjg on Dec 5, 2023 9:45:01 GMT
"Imagine getting the news just before Christmas that your mail order bride, or groom, has been cancelled due to insufficient funds. F*****g Tories. " Interesting and revealing response from a Labour voter happily supporting a policy discriminating against the lower paid and threatening to rip families apart who are currently settled here. Here is another take on it: iandunt.substack.com/p/the-price-they-put-on-loveEven some on the far right see the issue: In addition to the basic income requirement, the requirement increases if the couple have children by a few thousand, the spouse has to pay the NHS surcharge and the visa processing cost. For a family of four that takes the cost up to about £45,000.And the income which a spouse will earn is not taken into account. "Interesting and revealing response from a Labour voter happily supporting a policy discriminating against the lower paid and threatening to rip families apart who are currently settled here." - It's jib, I wouldn't assume that he is a Labour voter. He's never made a secret of his pro-brexit, anti-immigration views.
|
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 5,971
Member is Online
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 5, 2023 9:49:31 GMT
Britain has been in a 15-year economic slump. This is our route out of it Torsten Bell of the Resolution Foundation Britain has huge strengths, but it is now impossible to miss that we’re in a phase of relative decline. A year or two of poor productivity growth and flatlining wages is survivable, but 15 long years of stagnation is not: workers today take home no more than they did heading into the financial crisis. The cost of wages not growing as they used to? £10,700 a year for the average worker. Slow growth combines with longer-lasting high inequality: the UK is Europe’s most unequal large economy. That combination has proved toxic for people in Britain on middle and low incomes. We think we’re similar to the likes of France or Germany, but our poorer families are now a staggering 27% worse off than their French and German counterparts. ... But fatalism is misplaced. Having fallen so far behind, we now have one huge advantage: catch-up potential. We don’t need to become as rich as the US or as equal as Scandinavia. Closing our productivity and inequality gap with countries we’ve long considered ourselves similar to – Australia, Canada, France, Germany and the Netherlands – would mean British households being more than £8,000 better off. That is a huge prize, worth embracing a new economic strategy for. Yes this is an important point Leftie that could use more attention. it is partly due to less growth, but also less of it filtering down, and insane rises in the cost of essentials like housing, energy and lately food. (A difficulty is that the remedy might involve more state action, which is not always popular in the main parties since their capture by those more to the economic right).
|
|
|
Post by shevii on Dec 5, 2023 10:00:30 GMT
Elliott has become a diminished character in the journalistic world. He's clearly a very erudite economist and fine writer, and on the left too in terms of his politics, but Brexit, which he supported, and its after effects has rather punctured his balloon and damaged his self confidence. It's sad to see the painful contortions he continues to deploy to justify his original "Lexiteer" position. Some of them have even drawn him in to back-handedly supporting/defending Tory and Johnsonian policies. He is finding it almost impossible to concede that he may have been mistaken. He's an intelligent and rational man, and can still write incisively on economic matters, but he's becoming slowly ever more intellectually discredited by his wriggling on Brexit. The latest straw that he's clutching at is that brexit (which of course delivered nothing those who voted for it expected) was a kind of 'release valve' for populist discontentment that has supposedly allowed us to avoid the shift to voting for far right parties seen in the Netherlands and Italy etc. I really don't think there's been any release of discontentment in this country has there? More precisely the opposite. When your main supposedly centre right party dons the clothes of those parties on the extreme there's less need for an overtly immigrant bashing party is there and we all wait with trepidation to see what horror they'll transform into after they lose the election. Yes- I think also FPTP has "helped" us in that respect together with Reform not having a personality like Farage who can tub thump. Also timing is everything- whoever was in power during Covid & Ukraine across Europe is suffering from unpopularity dependent on how well they performed. Just like Brown did a pretty decent job in 2008 but still got the blame when only a small portion of blame can be attributed to him in the way he ran the economy before this to create a situation where bust was possible and the banks needed bailing out due in part to deregulation. Our electoral cycle will be different to other EU countries anyway and it wouldn't be so hard to see a clued in far right party getting 15-20% under PR. If Starmer fails it seems likely that both Far Right and Far(ish) left parties will gain whereas at the moment the Tories have failed and there is only one alternative to get rid of them. Once the electorate has been through both of these then things may change although FPTP will dampen the type of thing we are seeing in Europe. I think he makes a valid point though that there probably is little difference in the economies across Europe & UK since Brexit. That is of course different from brexit helping us substantially and going through all that 5 year disruption. The issues go well beyond Brexit and onto globalisation, energy costs etc and it would have been hard for any country to make economic progress during Covid and Ukraine so the jury is out who will recover best in the long term. That's very different from saying brexit has "helped" us although it probably has helped some low paid private industry workers get higher pay rises than they would otherwise have got but difficult to be sure because this is obscured by covid in particular where workers were in short supply anyway. He'd have been better off saying that his version of brexit hasn't happened which was always going to be the case as everyone had different reasons for voting for brexit.
|
|
|
Post by wb61 on Dec 5, 2023 10:17:22 GMT
|
|