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Post by shevii on Dec 3, 2023 10:59:17 GMT
According to some Tory papers Starmer is now openly praising the AntiChrist. Well it's in the Guardian too. I suppose you can admire certain aspects of her legacy without being an acolyte? You know, like why does the devil have the best tunes etc. "His praise of Thatcher – a divisive figure in British politics – is likely to raise eyebrows on the left of the Labour party." But not the soft left or centrists who no doubt see it as "clever politics" writing this in the Telegraph.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 3, 2023 11:06:05 GMT
isa - I think there is still a strong sense of denialism within many sections of the medical community, and large swathes of the NHS, regarding the ongoing consequences of covid on population health. In some specialisms (cardiavascular, for example) the consensus seems to have moved and it now appears largely accepted that covid is a very substantial risk factor with long term consequences. Maybe its because you have yet to produce any evidence its true. Sure, plenty of evidence of the existence of long covid and more detail about it. But first no evidence its truly significant, second no evidence there is anything whatever we can do to prevent it, and no evidence the risk from other similar respiratory diseases isnt exactly the same. We had lockdown, we had the vaccines. Now we have 1-2 million cases of covid continuously in the Uk for he last 2 1/2 years. Because they created this situation where we have covid permanently now instead of just in waves as it was naturally? I can see only two explanations how that happened. The first is that actually it always happens haturally, we just never could measure it before where lost of people are getting mild illness which doesnt look at all like serious covid. Its because of the existence of testin we even know about it. The second, rather more serious, is that the massive repeat vaccination program has so imprinted most people on the old strains they just cannot develop immunity to the new ones and so stop them properly. Rather like having a constant suppy of free icecream which isnt your favourite, but you never bother getting that favourite because the other one is there.
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Post by graham on Dec 3, 2023 11:06:42 GMT
Well it's in the Guardian too. I suppose you can admire certain aspects of her legacy without being an acolyte? You know, like why does the devil have the best tunes etc. Indeed. Not sure the anti-Christ label quite sticks in this context. If it does, then we had an awful lot of our fellow citizens in 1979, 1983 and 1987 sufficiently dedicated to evil to enable the anti-Christ to continue steering the handcart to hell. Much the same can be said of millions of German voters who supported Hitler and the NSDAP at two Reichstag elections in 1932 and the vaguely last free election held in March 1933. Morever, had there been open elections under the Third Reich there is little doubt Hitler won have won comfortably.
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Post by mark61 on Dec 3, 2023 11:08:23 GMT
Much as I wish the result of the Referendum on the EU had been different I agree with Crossbat and Pjw that there is little chance Of Labour ( if they win big ) spending the credit of their large majority on a further divisive referendum which opens all the old divisions when there is so much more to do. There is no doubt that the tide is going out on the Brexit cause but it's Political proponents would I think run a 2nd campaign worse than the 1st screaming betrayal and be prepared to stoke divisions to the extent it may make a bonfire of Civil society in most of the UK at least. People are tired and weary, our democratic institutions have been weakened and I think that the next Govt should tread carefully for this reason on this issue.
Much better to align gradually, remove trade and travel friction where possible, and If the next Govt which I assume will be Labour can modestly improve things maybe the issue of whether we re-join in some format could be addressed in the 2028/9 manifesto.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2023 11:10:10 GMT
Indeed. Not sure the anti-Christ label quite sticks in this context. If it does, then we had an awful lot of our fellow citizens in 1979, 1983 and 1987 sufficiently dedicated to evil to enable the anti-Christ to continue steering the handcart to hell. Much the same can be said of millions of German viers who supported Hitler and the NSDAP at two Reichstag elections in 1932 and the vaguely last free election held in March 1933. Morever, had there been open elections under the Third Reich there is little doubt Hitler won have won comfortably. Good grief.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 3, 2023 11:11:22 GMT
"First, a new treaty with Rwanda needs to be negotiated. And the Rwandans are becoming increasingly tired of being used as a British political football. 'They're getting fed up,' another Minister explained. 'They're thinking, 'What's the point in negotiating a new treaty when Keir Starmer's going to be PM in a few months and just rip the whole thing up.' ' Dan Hodges Daily Mail So I'm sure the £140 million consolation prize for not having to accept the illegally renditioned refugees will come in handy ,it adds around 1.5% to its total GDP for the year. If the Uk was offered £45 billion for taking 200 people I think they also would have said yes? dont people asking for residence here only have to have a million pounds each?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 3, 2023 11:13:41 GMT
alecLet's imagine a post election scenario Labour wins with a huge majority with the lib dems in third place behind a Tory party reduced to less than 150 mps None of these are far fetched they're entirely consistent with polling. The lib dems leadership emboldened by greater coverage and more voices in parliament remembers we are a pro rejoin party and pushes the line. The SNP do the same. Now , it gets a bit more speculative, rather than pushing even further into the catastrophic electoral meltdown of being a brexitanian party the Tories , as they've done numerous times before, reinvent themselves, Cameron's new found prominence resonates with the membership and the party rather than shifting to trumpian fascism moves back to the centre ground , the new party leader Ben Wallace having been convinced changes his mind about not standing and survived the election purge leads the party towards full participation in the single market and looks favourably on a two tier European union. If not Wallace there's probably some other Tory who survived Spaffer's purge of the moderates James Cracknall's arrival gives a boost to the progressive wing of the party. Starmer then looks not only out of step with his own party but with cross party opinion. We'd be renegotiating rejoin within the parliament. Ive long being saying the obvious next step for con is to try to lead the rejoin campaign if labour doesnt. It has exactly the same plus as when they led the leave campaign, that it would draw away labour voters.
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Post by thylacine on Dec 3, 2023 11:19:41 GMT
Well it's in the Guardian too. I suppose you can admire certain aspects of her legacy without being an acolyte? You know, like why does the devil have the best tunes etc. "His praise of Thatcher – a divisive figure in British politics – is likely to raise eyebrows on the left of the Labour party." But not the soft left or centrists who no doubt see it as "clever politics" writing this in the Telegraph. Being quite left myself doesn't mean I can't appreciate clever politics. And yes he walks a fine line but I suppose he feels walk it he must.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 3, 2023 11:19:53 GMT
There would be nothing 'easy' about it: (a) It would consume vast amounts of parliamentary time and energy at a point where there are so many other problems that need addressing Set some clerks on it, but with a thumping majority its surely not hard to have an eu realignment bill rushed through with minimal debate. But with a clear national majority to rejoin, that isnt a FPP winning block any more. And a resurgent UKIP would split the block anywy. This might guarantee con could not get back in power for even longer. You kid yourself it isnt already. Leavers should be sent to Rwanda in punishment. Let some migrants have their places here. This might simply highlight how very VERY stupid it was to leave and increase hate for any politician who supported leaving in the first place.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 3, 2023 11:23:50 GMT
Politics has always been the art of the possible, especially in a democracy which is always having to herd millions of cats and divergent interests. Compromise is inevitable. A necessity even. One reason why politicians are currently so detested is they simply have no ambition. You need a cause to galvanise supporters, and it should be rejoin. Whereas Starmer's strategy seems to be to say not a word to encourage his supporters, but in the hopw by so doing he will deprive con of any opposite cause to campaign on. His idea seems to be taking into account FPP, that if con support shrinks faster than lab support, he will win. But what then is the point of winning?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 3, 2023 11:25:54 GMT
alecI doubt if any of us fundamentally disagree. While it's technically possible for the UK to be back in the European union by 2030 I suspect another half a decade of wasted opportunity will be necessary before it's achieved. Restoration of most of the non electoral rights with a comprehensive move towards single market participation is however entirely plausible within the next parliament. Hey, its technically possible to be back by 2025. Its a question whether politicians want to make it happen, and they do not. We havnt consulted the EU what they think. On the right terms I am sure they would be happy to agree.
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Post by graham on Dec 3, 2023 11:33:25 GMT
Starmer, if and when he comes to power next year, is wise to temper expectations. The coalition of voters large enough to turn this around for Labour next year will comprise, in the main, people not seeking revolutionary change anyway Just make things work a bit better so I can get on and live my life. It's not manning the barricades, I know, but it's where most voters are. It is what it is. Starmer gets it, I think. Blair seriously misread the mood of the electorate in 1997 as evidenced by the scale of the Labour victory - which came as a shock to him - and the collapse of turnout in 2001 when voters expressed their disappointment by sitting on their hands. In many ways Labour presented the 1992 and 1997 Manifestos in the wrong order.. The 1997 Manifesto might well have sufficed in 1992 but by 1997 the electorate had moved on and was in the mood for more radical change and a reversal of quite a bit of Thatcher's poisonous legacy. Renationalising the railways would have won votes in 1997. Landslides don't happen when voters simply want minor adjustments to the status quo - which is what we saw in 1951 and 1964. In both 1945 and 1997 people wanted big changes - but that failed to happen in the latter year.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Dec 3, 2023 11:40:43 GMT
In relation to Starmer and Thatcher, I listened to him this morning, he said he didn't like what Thatcher did, but he did like the fact she had an agenda and drove meaningful change through. He also said Attlee and Blair also drove through change He was clearly making links to politicians who knew what they wanted and how to get it done
So I don't think he can be justly criticised for his comments about Thatcher I do think a more valid criticism is that at the moment he doesn't have a clear agenda. He has got some worthwhile policies, but as yet not an over reaching political philosophy Still probably 10 months to the election though and he's nothing if not pragmatic
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 3, 2023 11:43:29 GMT
Personally I see nothing to recommend support for Thatcher who undermined the post war consensus and stoked division in the country for narrow partisan reasons . Couldn't have envisaged ever voting for the wicked witch of Grantham. That being said even while thinking the nation would have been far better off without her she was occasionally right as with the expansion of the EEC single market and from a purely selfish point of view being paid enough to purchase my first property while trying to keep warm round a bonfire with striking minors came in handy. They did find it odd that most of the Met officers seconded (in my experience) were on their side of the argument.
Over to the usual suspects to explain how we were really all "Maggie Thatcher's boot boys"
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Dec 3, 2023 11:46:36 GMT
Re tories tacking to a rejoin party, really can't see it happening in the short to medium term The tory party members are even more anti-EU than tory voters were They select the leader and candidates for MPs, if a tory MP has any aspirations for l leadership they will have to do so on the UK remaining outside the EU
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 3, 2023 11:49:56 GMT
Danny It isn't possible to rejoin by 2025, it would have been if we were still in the transition period.
Under EU law, the UK is now a third country so would have to reapply and undergo the whole accession procedure from scratch, under Article 49 of the Treaty of European Union.
For new applications this can take 9 years on average however it's entirely plausible given the unique circumstances that with European union members agreement this could be expedited to less than half of that, negotiations could effectively commence before formal application but the earliest conceivable date would be around 2028, I shall not hold my breath.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 3, 2023 11:55:45 GMT
"The tory party members are even more anti-EU than tory voters "
Tory party members overwhelmingly elected David Cameron as leader with more than double the vote of brexitanian David Davis.A,larger percentage than Spaffer achieved against Hunt.
There have effectively been just two contested Tory leadership elections since 2005.
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Post by alec on Dec 3, 2023 11:56:32 GMT
Danny - isa and I were having a grown up conversation about covid. Better if you go into the garden and play with the other children.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2023 11:57:02 GMT
Re rejoining the EU. If Putin is still in power it’s possible that he could coerce Hungary to block our application. No idea of the regles in that situation but Hungary seems an odd fit for the EU from what I observe of it.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Dec 3, 2023 12:03:22 GMT
"The tory party members are even more anti-EU than tory voters " Tory party members overwhelmingly elected David Cameron as leader with more than double the vote of brexitanian David Davis.A,larger percentage than Spaffer achieved against Hunt. There have effectively been just two contested Tory leadership elections since 2005. The tory party of 2005 isn't the same as that of 2023 Some polling here from 2019 yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/23849-most-conservative-members-would-see-party-destroye"Now a new YouGov survey of Conservative Party members reveals just how much Brexit has changed the mood of the membership, subverting traditional loyalties and reshaping political priorities. So dedicated to accomplishing Brexit are Tory members that a majority (54%) would be willing to countenance the destruction of their own party if necessary. Only a third (36%) put the party’s preservation above steering Britain out of the EU" and this from the 6th November 2023 www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-conservatives-tory-reform-brexit-b2442266.htmlMore than seven in 10 Tory members want Nigel Farage to be readmitted to the party, a poll has revealed
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Dec 3, 2023 12:18:02 GMT
Re rejoining the EU. If Putin is still in power it’s possible that he could coerce Hungary to block our application. No idea of the regles in that situation but Hungary seems an odd fit for the EU from what I observe of it. There are moves to do away with the national veto. Not before time. Personally I think if a state moves away from adhering to the criteria that allowed it to join then it should be given a period of time to remedy that then be unceremoniously booted out.
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Post by mercian on Dec 3, 2023 12:22:51 GMT
Always tried to explain to Brexiters that Brexit could easily be reversed, once the reality dawned. You seem to assume that the EU would welcome back an unreliable partner. Also I wonder if so many would be keen to rejoin if they knew we'd have to adopt the Euro.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Dec 3, 2023 12:30:00 GMT
Well it's in the Guardian too. I suppose you can admire certain aspects of her legacy without being an acolyte? You know, like why does the devil have the best tunes etc. "His praise of Thatcher – a divisive figure in British politics – is likely to raise eyebrows on the left of the Labour party." But not the soft left or centrists who no doubt see it as "clever politics" writing this in the Telegraph. Not entirely so. I'm soft-left I suppose and I find any praise of Thatcher repulsive, since I consider her legacy to be entirely negative. I recall when Blair did the same thing and the reaction across the Labour Party was unenthusiastic to say the least. But obviously Starmer is talking to the electorate rather than Labour members there, my caveat being that he doesn't need Telegraph readers' votes to be able to win.
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Post by mercian on Dec 3, 2023 12:33:18 GMT
Ive long being saying the obvious next step for con is to try to lead the rejoin campaign if labour doesnt. It has exactly the same plus as when they led the leave campaign, that it would draw away labour voters. Except of course they didn't lead the Leave campaign. Cameron was the PM and a Remainer, though he let backbenchers campaign for Leave. You keep on making the same error over and over again.
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Post by mercian on Dec 3, 2023 12:36:35 GMT
Starmer, if and when he comes to power next year, is wise to temper expectations. The coalition of voters large enough to turn this around for Labour next year will comprise, in the main, people not seeking revolutionary change anyway Just make things work a bit better so I can get on and live my life. It's not manning the barricades, I know, but it's where most voters are. It is what it is. Starmer gets it, I think. Blair seriously misread the mood of the electorate in 1997 as evidenced by the scale of the Labour victory - which came as a shock to him - and the collapse of turnout in 2001 when voters expressed their disappointment by sitting on their hands. In many ways Labour presented the 1992 and 1997 Manifestos in the wrong order.. The 1997 Manifesto might well have sufficed in 1992 but by 1997 the electorate had moved on and was in the mood for more radical change and a reversal of quite a bit of Thatcher's poisonous legacy. Renationalising the railways would have won votes in 1997. Landslides don't happen when voters simply want minor adjustments to the status quo - which is what we saw in 1951 and 1964. In both 1945 and 1997 people wanted big changes - but that failed to happen in the latter year.
There might be a landslide next time, but don't count your chickens.
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Post by graham on Dec 3, 2023 12:40:42 GMT
Blair seriously misread the mood of the electorate in 1997 as evidenced by the scale of the Labour victory - which came as a shock to him - and the collapse of turnout in 2001 when voters expressed their disappointment by sitting on their hands. In many ways Labour presented the 1992 and 1997 Manifestos in the wrong order.. The 1997 Manifesto might well have sufficed in 1992 but by 1997 the electorate had moved on and was in the mood for more radical change and a reversal of quite a bit of Thatcher's poisonous legacy. Renationalising the railways would have won votes in 1997. Landslides don't happen when voters simply want minor adjustments to the status quo - which is what we saw in 1951 and 1964. In both 1945 and 1997 people wanted big changes - but that failed to happen in the latter year.
There might be a landslide next time, but don't count your chickens. I have no chickens to count and will not be voting for Starmer. Nor did I vote for Blair.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Dec 3, 2023 12:41:34 GMT
The obvious first step to rejoining the EU is an EFTA type arrangement (notice I said type), but I don't think it will happen in the next Parliament, the wounds are still too raw The one after that possibly, in 6 years time it will have been 13 years since the referendum. Many of the cohort who were most in favour of Brexit will have passed while large numbers of younger voters will be able to have their say for the first time. Meanwhile we know many existing leave voters have changed their minds
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 3, 2023 12:42:08 GMT
Baby meets 🎅 Yes and my daughter is dressed as an elf!
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 3, 2023 13:03:46 GMT
neilj The youngest of the cohort in that scenario would already be in their thirties around 4 million existing Brexit voters will have died by then along with around 1.5 million remain voters. Around 9 million people will have turned 18 since 2016 of whom around 4 million could be anticipated to have voted remain while just 1 million voting leave. That's a net fall of 3 million for leave and a net rise of 2.5 million for remain. Even if no brexitanians had changed their minds (and around 25% have) it wouldn't even be close. Currently assuming around a 30 million turn out polling suggests a rejoin vote of around 18 million and a stay out figure of 12 million more than three times the margin for leave in 2016. It's only going to get wider. We're being disenfranchised by our political leaders.
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Post by shevii on Dec 3, 2023 13:26:01 GMT
In relation to Starmer and Thatcher, I listened to him this morning, he said he didn't like what Thatcher did, but he did like the fact she had an agenda and drove meaningful change through. He also said Attlee and Blair also drove through change He was clearly making links to politicians who knew what they wanted and how to get it done So I don't think he can be justly criticised for his comments about Thatcher I do think a more valid criticism is that at the moment he doesn't have a clear agenda. He has got some worthwhile policies, but as yet not an over reaching political philosophy Still probably 10 months to the election though and he's nothing if not pragmatic I think in general terms, rather like when someone dies who you don't like, then it's fair enough to talk in generalisations like getting things done, having a vision etc. The issue I have is this line: "Keir Starmer has praised Margaret Thatcher for effecting “meaningful change” in Britain in an article directly appealing to Conservative voters to switch to Labour. Writing in the Sunday Telegraph, the Labour leader said Thatcher had “set loose our natural entrepreneurialism” during her time as prime minister." Had this been said by anyone other than Starmer I think all the LOC on here would be all over that quote. She set loose a bunch of spivs out for a quick buck and sold the family silver. That's fundamental to why Thatcherism failed over the medium to long term. No spare council houses to offer up to needy people, gas and electric bills through the roof and not controlled as in partly nationalised France, private water a disgrace, a generation growing up semi unemployable because there were no jobs available when she did nothing to replace the jobs her policies lost with the "entrepreneurs" leaping on the chance to pay low wages/terms and conditions, care in the community not fit for purpose, taxes lowered fraying the safety net to breaking point and not giving the government the money to make effective investment in industry.
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