pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Dec 2, 2023 16:10:13 GMT
Mussolini and Quisling executed as well, but Franco undeservedly got to die peacefully in his bed aged 82. Justice doesn't always get done. Spain was neutral in WWII, though sympathetic to the Germans. There have been plenty of other dictators in history who died peacefully. Franco was responsible for the deaths of an estimated 160,000-200,000 political opponents in the "white terror". That doesn't include those who died more 'conventionally' in the Civil War, who arguably can also be blamed on Franco who had initiated a rebellion against the legitimate elected government of Spain. As to your second point - obviously true. As I say, justice doesn't always get done. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Terror_(Spain)
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Dec 2, 2023 16:12:58 GMT
crossbat11 - Mussolini, Franco, Quisling, now Tojo. Still a few to go without getting to the big one. Petain next perhaps? It's a toss up between Petain, Nick Clegg and Wayne Rooney for the next avatar. Nick Clegg for Jib, but Graham would prefer Tony Blair I think.
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Post by leftieliberal on Dec 2, 2023 18:13:33 GMT
Mussolini and Quisling executed as well, but Franco undeservedly got to die peacefully in his bed aged 82. Justice doesn't always get done. Spain was neutral in WWII, though sympathetic to the Germans. There have been plenty of other dictators in history who died peacefully. Also António de Oliveira Salazar, the Portuguese dictator. Perhaps it is something to do with the climate of the Iberian peninsula.
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Post by thylacine on Dec 2, 2023 18:28:58 GMT
So Jenny Harries advocated sending patients with COVID into care homes full of extremely vulnerable people who couldn't get out. If I remember right she was touted as the acceptable face of government broadcasts her public health status used to give a human brush to the political face Surely in practice it was a death sentence .
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Dec 2, 2023 19:58:44 GMT
Interesting observation over on the elections pro-board from the chap who collates the candidates in local government by-elections. He reckons that around half of all Tory candidates are now running under the label "Local Conservative". It is clearly seen as an advantage to put as much distance between yourself and the shenanigans at Westminster as possible.
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Post by jib on Dec 2, 2023 20:56:49 GMT
As I've stated before, I expect the Lib Dems to land somewhere with 2.5 - 3 million total votes ~ 10% of the vote.
10 seats would be disappointing, 20 would be reasonable.
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graham
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Post by graham on Dec 2, 2023 21:23:24 GMT
As I've stated before, I expect the Lib Dems to land somewhere with 2.5 - 3 million total votes ~ 10% of the vote. 10 seats would be disappointing, 20 would be reasonable. Personally I am inclined to pitch the likely LD seat range at 15 - 25.
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Post by isa on Dec 2, 2023 22:30:00 GMT
Just wanted to make a quick shout out for the NHS. For all the issues with A&E, horrendous waiting lists etc., it's nice to know that in the background, important preventative screening programmes are quietly running.
As I am rapidly, (too bloody rapidly!), approaching my 65th birthday, I was recently called forward for an Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm screening. All good, thankfully, but it's nice to know that this programme, together with annual 'MOTs' and biennial bowel screening exercises seem to be working well, at least from my personal experience.
The preventative value of such initiatives, which probably cost relative peanuts in the overall scheme of things, is probably highly effective in terms of reducing having to treat the consequences of otherwise unidentified issues further down the line, by highlighting remedial/self help treatment which could head off the need for more serious interventions, at the pass. (Apologies for quite a messy paragraph. Hopefully the gist is there).
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Post by alec on Dec 2, 2023 22:59:42 GMT
thylacine - Yup. Jennie Harries is also on record as saying that children were more likely to be hit by a bus as catch covid. She's been wrong on a great many thinks on Covid, and I have a horrible feeling she ended up in the top job because she agreed with the duffers in charge. isa - Yes, screening is good, but I have a horrible feeling that all sorts of health screening programmes are going to be swamped. As with most aneurysms, covid has a pretty dramatic effect on abdominal aortic aneurysm it seems - www.news-medical.net/news/20230510/COVID-19-infection-may-promote-aortic-aneurysms-and-new-treatment-may-slow-its-growth.aspxIt's a small study, but having covid means you're much more likely to have rapid growth of these. This is becoming tragically all too common, from liver damage to lung conditions to dementia, cancers and cardiovascular risks; more covid infections means greater risk of developing a swathe of other problems. It's tiresome to live in a world where we have to keep pointing all of this out, but the data is overwhelming.
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Post by isa on Dec 2, 2023 23:59:08 GMT
thylacine _ isa - Yes, screening is good, but I have a horrible feeling that all sorts of health screening programmes are going to be swamped. As with most aneurysms, covid has a pretty dramatic effect on abdominal aortic aneurysm it seems - www.news-medical.net/news/20230510/COVID-19-infection-may-promote-aortic-aneurysms-and-new-treatment-may-slow-its-growth.aspxIt's a small study, but having covid means you're much more likely to have rapid growth of these. This is becoming tragically all too common, from liver damage to lung conditions to dementia, cancers and cardiovascular risks; more covid infections means greater risk of developing a swathe of other problems. It's tiresome to live in a world where we have to keep pointing all of this out, but the data is overwhelming. Thanks for your reply, alec. I must say, I find it fairly reassuring that, despite the tremendous distraction of COVID over the last few years, such programmes do seem still to function, certainly in my own experience, at least. Despite having had quite a nasty whack from the COVID stick last year, I thankfully seem thus far to have avoided the more dire effects of COVID on aortic aneurysms. I came in at 2 cm, which is apparently spot on. The study you quote is quite eyebrow raising, so I'm a little surprised that screening is still a 'one off' exercise. If you're less than 3 cm, you're never called again. If what the study suggests continues to play out, though, you'd think it would be advisable to screen more often.
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graham
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Post by graham on Dec 3, 2023 1:14:09 GMT
According to some Tory papers Starmer is now openly praising the AntiChrist.
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Post by isa on Dec 3, 2023 1:29:06 GMT
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Post by isa on Dec 3, 2023 1:40:51 GMT
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Post by thylacine on Dec 3, 2023 7:16:28 GMT
According to some Tory papers Starmer is now openly praising the AntiChrist. Well it's in the Guardian too. I suppose you can admire certain aspects of her legacy without being an acolyte? You know, like why does the devil have the best tunes etc.
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Post by alec on Dec 3, 2023 8:22:09 GMT
isa - I think there is still a strong sense of denialism within many sections of the medical community, and large swathes of the NHS, regarding the ongoing consequences of covid on population health. In some specialisms (cardiavascular, for example) the consensus seems to have moved and it now appears largely accepted that covid is a very substantial risk factor with long term consequences. Other specialisms are way behind. I was struck by the story from a publicly identified GP on twitter, who said this week that she had been for a haircut, wearing an FFP3 mask, and the hairdresser was completely laid back about it, as was everyone else she met. Until she went for a hospital outpatient treatment, when a series of agitated nurses and doctors questioned her as to why she was wearing a mask, because 'covid is over'. It's bizarre, and I won't be telling this story to my 78yo neighbour who contracted covid when in hospital for an out-patient check up back in June, and still can't walk without aid after being pretty fit and healthy. She's furious at the NHS.
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 3, 2023 8:28:52 GMT
According to some Tory papers Starmer is now openly praising the AntiChrist. Well it's in the Guardian too. I suppose you can admire certain aspects of her legacy without being an acolyte? You know, like why does the devil have the best tunes etc. Indeed. Not sure the anti-Christ label quite sticks in this context. If it does, then we had an awful lot of our fellow citizens in 1979, 1983 and 1987 sufficiently dedicated to evil to enable the anti-Christ to continue steering the handcart to hell.
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Post by alec on Dec 3, 2023 8:50:45 GMT
Is there little appetite for a #RejoinEU referendum? Curtice: “This is one of those great myths of our time. If you actually look at the evidence…a majority of those people who want to be inside the European Union are in favour of having a referendum within the next 5 years.”
Once again, the binary political establishment is distorting what voters actually want by repetition of falsehoods. As a country, we want to be in the EU, and as a country, we want to have a referendum on this.
Always tried to explain to Brexiters that Brexit could easily be reversed, once the reality dawned.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Dec 3, 2023 8:56:01 GMT
It seems the Rwandan Government are intent on getting the maximum out of us while they can and who can blame them The Rwandan policy has become a question of faith now of the tories, even though all informed commentators and even some tories now know it will be impossible to achieve Doesn't stop the tories continuing to flush tax payers money down the toilet though
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 3, 2023 9:28:59 GMT
"First, a new treaty with Rwanda needs to be negotiated. And the Rwandans are becoming increasingly tired of being used as a British political football.
'They're getting fed up,' another Minister explained. 'They're thinking, 'What's the point in negotiating a new treaty when Keir Starmer's going to be PM in a few months and just rip the whole thing up.' '
Dan Hodges Daily Mail So I'm sure the £140 million consolation prize for not having to accept the illegally renditioned refugees will come in handy ,it adds around 1.5% to its total GDP for the year.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 3, 2023 9:51:51 GMT
alecLet's imagine a post election scenario Labour wins with a huge majority with the lib dems in third place behind a Tory party reduced to less than 150 mps None of these are far fetched they're entirely consistent with polling. The lib dems leadership emboldened by greater coverage and more voices in parliament remembers we are a pro rejoin party and pushes the line. The SNP do the same. Now , it gets a bit more speculative, rather than pushing even further into the catastrophic electoral meltdown of being a brexitanian party the Tories , as they've done numerous times before, reinvent themselves, Cameron's new found prominence resonates with the membership and the party rather than shifting to trumpian fascism moves back to the centre ground , the new party leader Ben Wallace having been convinced changes his mind about not standing and survived the election purge leads the party towards full participation in the single market and looks favourably on a two tier European union. If not Wallace there's probably some other Tory who survived Spaffer's purge of the moderates James Cracknall's arrival gives a boost to the progressive wing of the party. Starmer then looks not only out of step with his own party but with cross party opinion. We'd be renegotiating rejoin within the parliament.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Dec 3, 2023 9:52:11 GMT
alec - "Always tried to explain to Brexiters that Brexit could easily be reversed, once the reality dawned."
There would be nothing 'easy' about it:
(a) It would consume vast amounts of parliamentary time and energy at a point where there are so many other problems that need addressing (b) It would re-galvanise and re-energise the political right in this country, currently in a parlous state, as the Mail, Express, Sun, etc. rallied to the defence of 'Brexit betrayed' by the 'woke elite' (c) Farage would reappear from his well deserved political oblivion to lead the cause once more with a new pack of lies about hordes of immigrants swamping the country (d) The UK would once more split into mutually hostile 'rejoin' and 'remain outside' camps. It seems likely that the 'rejoin' camp will be the larger one this time, although I have little doubt its lead would shrink during the realities of the campaign. The effect on the social cohesion of the country would be be dire, with the defeated Brexiters left bitter about the speed with which 'the establishment' took its revenge. (e) the EU terms for negotiating our joining would undoubtedly be tough and the various opt outs we had secured in the past would be gone (personally that doesn't bother me at all, except for the Euro which always seemed economically illiterate). Opposition to rejoining will increase as this becomes clear. The negotiations will consume a huge amount of government bandwidth and take years to come to their conclusion.
I'm all for rejoining, but it seems much better to let it happen organically through a growing together over time. This needs to start with realignment with EU regulations and work on removing trade barriers, leading in time to rejoining the single market and customs union and finally the political union. This will build a solid consensus. 15 years should do it.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 3, 2023 10:07:49 GMT
pjw1961 On current trend simply based on demographics there will be 70%+ support for rejoin , with even a plurality for rejoin amongst Tory party voters by 2028, it will be 12 years since national shoot yourself in the foot day and plenty of time will have passed to organise another " advisory " referendum , just as the 2016 one was before the brexitanians lied and said it wasnt. The purpose of the advisory referendum would be to judge the public's opinion on opening rejoin negotiations. In the mean time the UK out of economic necessity will have already moved in part or full to rejoin the single market. The argument that somehow it's far too time consuming and distracting is the brexitanians case for not correcting their fuck ups. Using parliamentary time to achieve obvious and profound benefits for the country is what it's supposed to do.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 3, 2023 10:12:31 GMT
"although I have little doubt its lead would shrink during the realities of the campaign. "
Why the realities of leaving are there to see, repeating the same lies that brexitanians used the first time around isn't likely to achieve resonance with an electorate that's experienced the reality of Brexit.
If anything I would anticipate a remain out campaign to be along the lines of let's be like Norway.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 3, 2023 10:18:55 GMT
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 3, 2023 10:20:33 GMT
pjw1961
I agree very much with your post about the wisdom or otherwise of convening another referendum on rejoining the EU.
Politics has always been the art of the possible, especially in a democracy which is always having to herd millions of cats and divergent interests. Compromise is inevitable. A necessity even.
This is all desperately disappointing and tedious, and the antithesis of idealism, but gradualism is the currency of realistic politics
Put another way, and stating the obvious, we are where we are not ideally where we'd like to be. All sensible politicians know that.
Governance, accordingly, is then a mix of make do and mend, bodging and fixing, reconciling conflicting interests, expediently buggering on and trying to tilt the state you govern in the direction you prefer.
Starmer, if and when he comes to power next year, is wise to temper expectations. The coalition of voters large enough to turn this around for Labour next year will comprise, in the main, people not seeking revolutionary change anyway
Just make things work a bit better so I can get on and live my life. It's not manning the barricades, I know, but it's where most voters are.
It is what it is. Starmer gets it, I think.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Dec 3, 2023 10:22:37 GMT
pjw1961 On current trend simply based on demographics there will be 70%+ support for rejoin , with even a plurality for rejoin amongst Tory party voters by 2028, it will be 12 years since national shoot yourself in the foot day and plenty of time will have passed to organise another " advisory " referendum , just as the 2016 one was before the brexitanians lied and said it wasnt. The purpose of the advisory referendum would be to judge the public's opinion on opening rejoin negotiations. In the mean time the UK out of economic necessity will have already moved in part or full to rejoin the single market.The argument that somehow it's far too time consuming and distracting is the brexitanians case for not correcting their fuck ups. Using parliamentary time to achieve obvious and profound benefits for the country is what it's supposed to do. That part has not yet happened. We are still diverging. Realignment will not commence under the current government, so is still a year away at best. I don't see any chance of a referendum in the next parliament given it will be in none of the Con, Lab or Lib Dem manifestos (it was in the Con and Lib Dem manifestos in 2015). Therefore the earliest referendum is after a 2028 or 2029 GE - so lets say 2030. Typically, accession negotiations to the EU take 10 years; some (Sweden, Finland, Austria) have been faster and some (Turkey) interminable. Lets say the UK's are faster, so take 4 years. That makes the earliest point of rejoining 2034 - 11 years hence. That, of course, assumes that the 2028/9 election is won by pro-EU parties, who might lose on other grounds. It simply isn't going to be be a fast process, regardless of the polling.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Dec 3, 2023 10:27:34 GMT
"although I have little doubt its lead would shrink during the realities of the campaign. " Why the realities of leaving are there to see, repeating the same lies that brexitanians used the first time around isn't likely to achieve resonance with an electorate that's experienced the reality of Brexit. If anything I would anticipate a remain out campaign to be along the lines of let's be like Norway. You have to remember many people don't take much notice of politics, economics or trade. The anti-EU, anti-immigration brigade appeal directly to emotion (fear mostly). It is a powerful tool. Not enough to win next time probably, but enough to bring a lot of the disengaged to their side of the argument. The Remain campaign should have run a positive emotion based 'peace in Europe, anti-war' campaign in 2015. It would have done better than the Cameron/Osborne economic fear based approach, IMO.
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Post by alec on Dec 3, 2023 10:44:34 GMT
steve - given their abilities to flip when it suits, I would caution ardent Brexiters that they have no guarantees that Conservatives are settled on Brexitm as you say. Nothing is fixed in politics. pjw1961 - yes I agree, there could be issues, but it's getting harder to construct such a divisive and balanced split in opinion as the realities of Brexit become clearer. Those wishing to retain this dreadful trading arrangement just look like the classic fruitcakes and loons, and increasingly everyone knows it. But yes, you're right I suspect (although I certainly wouldn't discount steve's scenario either, with a flip on the blue benches at some point after an electoral hammering). I think the most likely path ahead is a progressive unwinding of the most ridiculous divisions within the TCA, so we get closer and closer to EU rules, so the final decision becomes much easier in practical terms.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 3, 2023 10:45:28 GMT
"people not seeking revolutionary change anyway" It's not revolutionary change to seek to restore the status quo ante for the nearly five decades prior to 2020. I think the real issue here is that of Labour party activists trying to square the circle of a leadership that purports to want to " make Brexit work " and a membership that's overwhelmingly pro rejoin.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 3, 2023 10:49:23 GMT
alecI doubt if any of us fundamentally disagree. While it's technically possible for the UK to be back in the European union by 2030 I suspect another half a decade of wasted opportunity will be necessary before it's achieved. Restoration of most of the non electoral rights with a comprehensive move towards single market participation is however entirely plausible within the next parliament.
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