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Post by isa on Dec 1, 2023 23:39:24 GMT
Why does it have to be an already-inhabited island? In that case Rockall would be ideal. It has a ledge I believe. Indeed, but Rockall else.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2023 0:00:39 GMT
I imagine they just want to get it over with and move seamlessly into their new, highly paid jobs.
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Post by mercian on Dec 2, 2023 0:02:27 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 2, 2023 6:28:57 GMT
mercian Of course the mail starts off with a lie in its first line 1.1million " immigrants " didn't arrive in Germany in 2015 The vast majority were seeking asylum from the devastating war in Syria. The word "immigrants" is pejorative and inaccurate in the context of people fleeing war and persecution because it implies most are emigrating voluntarily rather than being forced to leave their homes, which is why the mail and other xenophobic hate mongers always use it. No one other than far right Nazi apologists would for example describe Jewish refugees fleeing similar threats to their lives in the 30's and 40's as immigrants. Here's the 1938 fail Mail take on it. The turds don't fall far from the tree.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 2, 2023 7:17:13 GMT
People might be interested to know that congressmen George Santos becomes the first member of congress ever to be expelled without a criminal conviction.Compulsive liar Santos is indicted in 23 charges pending trial, however the presumption of innocence wasn't sufficient grounds for 100 GOP congress members who voted to expel him as unfit for office. The leading GOP candidate for the presidency has already been found civilly liable for rape and fraud , leads a company that's already been held criminally liable for commercial fraud and who faces 91 indictments on criminal charges, but the number of GOP congress members opposing his selection number just 16 out of 221 with just 8 GOP senators sharing their opinions.
Profiles in hypocrisy.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 2, 2023 7:42:55 GMT
The U.S. Supreme court continues its far right efforts to undermine the rule of law! Bizarre likely decisions will make it virtually impossible for federal and state authorities to hold corporate fraudsters to account or regulate breach of commercial and health and safety regulations. Republican members of the court routinely receive multi million dollar gifts from far right billionaires, speak in tongues on their direct line to the sparkly sky elf and lied at their selection hearings. The supreme court used to be regarded as a bastion of common sense now It's majority is simply a bought and paid for outlet for billionaires and christofascists youtu.be/1SyunH_15U8?si=_cCVrQCCP82net7b
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 2, 2023 8:17:46 GMT
Despite the majority of the republican party voting to keep the criminal liar George Santos in post the two thirds threshold has been passed and Santos becomes just the third congressman since the civil war to be expelled. His replacement will be chosen by the Democratic governor of New York pending the November election. News seems to suggest February is a more likely date? Whats interesting is why some voted to keep him in office? The principle must be they do not regard what he did as reason to be removed? (although it may be seen as politically critical in that if he is replaced by a democrat, as presumably is more likely under these cicumstances, it makes life harder for the very low majority republicans.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 2, 2023 8:30:18 GMT
How about Heligoland? I'm sure he'd love that. The island we tried to sink with the largest non nuclear explosion of all time? (according to wikipedia). Sounds about right, but the returned German inhabitants might object. It was considered strategically important for mounting naval raids on Britain, so that might not be the best choice for a collection of people determined to invade the Uk by boat.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 2, 2023 8:34:03 GMT
For those interested, I posted a newly published paper on the covid thread earlier which details how SARS-CoV-2 has now been identified as having the ability to directly infect monocytes, which are a type of white blood cell and a key part of the immune system. Activation of these monocytes is associated with a range of inflammatory diseases (diabetes, obesity) and this is the the first time that a virus has been found to have this effect of these particular cells. Covid keeps on surprising us, and not on the upside. Ah, but this is surely good news? Whatever it can do, its been doing it for four years now. We have rather got used to it and so gone back to normal. Learning about it can only be a plus. What this all really seems to show is just how little we really knew about colds in 2019. Plus of course what an excellent job natural selections has done for our ancestors in the past in making us pretty much immune to covid now. We did mostly catch it, and we did mostly survive without then intervention of modern medicine. This was a pretty poor epidemic by historical standards.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 2, 2023 8:36:18 GMT
Danny Yes I should have said until the special election New York state law effectively requires that the election be held between 70 and 80 days after the vacancy is created, and party officials expect it to be held in mid-to-late February 2024. Given the shot time frame there may be no temporary appointment.
If Santos had been a senator the governorial appointment would have run to the next scheduled election.
It's highly likely that the Democratic party will recover the seat at the special election.
Thomas R. Suozzi is widely seen as the front-runner for the Democratic nomination. He held the seat before Mr. Santos but gave it up for a failed run for governor in 2022. Mr. Suozzi, 61, is a powerful fund-raiser, a committed centrist and perhaps the best-known candidate in either party
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 2, 2023 8:46:25 GMT
No one seems to have mentioned the next phases of the Israeli ethnic cleansing of Gaza.
After the important phase of the process organised with the assistance of american and other allies to supply the inhabitants with necessary food, water and fuel for their journey, Israel has issued instruction where the inhabitants should next move so as to clear further areas of Gaza ready for Israel to take over. Israel can now move on to destroying any habitable structure in new areas to make sure there is no risk of the animal infestation they referred to at the outset from returning.
Israel has meanwhile leaked plans for the creation of a buffer zone between it and any remaining Gazan occupied lands. What size do we reckon this would be? At the moment they seem to be planning to clear the northern 2/3 of the country? Do they intend to leav any land in Gazan hands, or force them all into Egypt?
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 2, 2023 9:05:42 GMT
The speculation about Sunak calling an earlier rather than a later General Election next year is intriguing on a number of levels.
The fact that some Tory MPs may be in favour of going in the Spring might be down to a number of things. It could be fatalism. Defeat is inevitable so let's get it over with. Quick death better than a lingering one. There may be some tactical thought behind it too. A giveaway budget in March, Labour wrong-footed, element of surprise, some nice Spring weather and, they think and hope, losses could be stemmed. Less time for awkward voters to get their personal ID and on the register to vote.
These are all factors that Sunak and his team will be pondering. I think the case for going long still trumps the one for going early though. The Tories will want to give the wedge issues that they are slowly dropping into the political seed-bed the maximum time to germinate and flower, I would think. On immigration, climate change and tax. They will be hoping that these dividing lines with Labour will widen to their electoral advantage
In this sense, time is one of their only friends. They will hope Labour trip up on one of the wedge issues, or maybe something else. Events out of the blue. They will also bank on some sort of economic upturn too. Not a statistical one but one that people feel in their pockets.
Don't forget too that Sunak will have personal and egocentric reasons for elongating his term as far as he can. Downing Street and Chequers, as well as the world stage, are nice places to be and he will be weighing up his legacy and the historical context of his length of term too. These considerations will sway him to eke it out, I suspect. Bigger political considerations for both the country and his party will be subordinated to them I think. He probably likes being PM, even a derided one. The upsides that come with the job are power, patronage and status. Don't let's underestimate how significant all this is on a purely human and personal level for Sunak.
The moral and political case for a General Election sooner rather than later is overwhelming, but it isn't from a constitutional point of view. Sunak still has a big overall majority and the right to carry on. For that reason, and notwithstanding he's looking down the barrel of an ignominious defeat whenever he goes to the country, I think it's almost certain that he will soldier on to the late Autumn.
Macbeth says best it's done quickly. Micawber says hang around to see if something turns up. It often does.
Micawber has it, I think.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 2, 2023 9:31:25 GMT
crossbat11 The thinking appears to be that at a May election voters will return sufficient Tories to be an effective opposition( around 200) but as the continuing clustershambles post Brexit outcomes and failed pledges and the reality of tax rises masquerading as tax falls becomes even clearer that they would be in historic failure zone by the fall. It's difficult to see how less than 100 Tory mps could offer any significant opposition to a Labour administration with a 300 seat majority. Without reference to the fact that it's really fptp not Labour popularity that would turn about 40% of the votes cast into 80% of seats, but given the love affair that both party leadership's have with unfair voting it's entirely possible and likely to be repeated for at least two General elections. I think it's industrial grade straw clutching on the part of the Tories they are almost certainly totally knackered whenever the election is called. Leaving it later just risks pissing more people off. Sunakered might have financial motivations for doing so but that's not likely to impress the rest of the regime.
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 2, 2023 10:07:37 GMT
steve
Yes, I agree, hence my comment about the moral and political case for an early general election being overwhelming. I think you're right too about the likelihood of things getting worse not better for the beleaguered Sunak. Stretching the electorate's patience may increase the likelihood of an historical punishment beating too when voters eventually get their chance
All that said, I still think the Tories will go long. One of their motivations may well be a desire to pass on the most poisoned of chalices to Labour.
The calculation there would be that their best chance of a quick political recovery might be a Labour Government plunging quickly into unpopularity and economic difficulty. That would be a gamble though. They may not be immediate beneficiaries if their reputation has been so badly trashed after 14 years of incumbency.
I suspect the much slicker Labour Comms team will be milking the Tories poisonous legacy for some years to come. No need for Liam Byrne type notes either. This may allow them quite a bit of political slack amongst voters in the early years of a Starmer government.
We're clearing up the mess folks. Give us time, won't you.
Thanks.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 2, 2023 10:24:35 GMT
These are all factors that Sunak and his team will be pondering. I think the case for going long still trumps the one for going early though. The Tories will want to give the wedge issues that they are slowly dropping into the political seed-bed the maximum time to germinate and flower, I would think. On immigration, climate change and tax. They will be hoping that these dividing lines with Labour will widen to their electoral advantage There seems to be more rumors about an early elections. People are testing the water. The problem for con as I see it, is they won in 2019 on Brexit. But its gone, it happened. Even just left at that with no change of mind by voters, this would still see a reversion of voters to lab who were otherwise traditional lab. But more than this, a bit proportion who voted leave now believe it was a mistake. Yes, con are holding on to those who still believe in Brexit, but its a block getting smaller every day. Eventually it becomes counter productive to continue to support brexit and its flock of associated policies and to win again it becomes necessary to moce to the centre right again. Although that in itself was inadequate in 2010 without grabbing leave voters. Without a change in policy its arguable con are now condemned never to win an election again. Voters are burned by being tricked into voting leave and have by now seen its failure to benefit their lives. Con has to start again to build a majority block. To stay in power now con pretty much have to keepon with the same brexity policies. If Sunak tried to become a remainer right now the party would explode. But all the time he does this it makes their long term position worse. They desperately need to shut up and quietly re-emerge as a pro EU party once again. Starmer seems to realise Brexit is the huge issue in this elections, but to make it work best for him he needs to stand outside it, and leave con to fight amongst themselves. Its possible in another year something could happen to create a win. Thatcher had the Falklands, which quite possible changed history and ensured a string of con wins. Con had brexit this time, but thats over now as an election winner. Absent that, time is their enemy in every respect except enjoying their offices for another year. What exactly is going to improve in this time? Sure, inflation has dropped a bit, bit of growth or more than expected, but still poor compared to the EU and bringing its own problems such as surging immigration. Austerity has built in disaster for the NHS, for local government. Housing policy has created a crisis not only of absolute shortage, simply not enough homes, but impossible prices too. Wave of more strikes to come. Inflation still massively more than people became accustomed to for 20 years. Drops in real income for most people slowly biting. The solution to all the problems created by core tory policy is a period of labour goverbnment to reverse them. Then Tweedledum can campaign again on restoring all again after people hae had time to forget just why they were such a bad idea. What is there really to suggest the next year will impress voters as an economic success, rather than just less bad than the preceding year? Don't forget too that Sunak will have personal and egocentric reasons for elongating his term as far as he can. Downing Street and Chequers, as well as the world stage, are nice places to be and he will be weighing up his legacy and the historical context of his length of term too. These considerations will sway him to eke it out, I suspect. Bigger political considerations for both the country and his party will be subordinated to them I think. He probably likes being PM, even a derided one. The upsides that come with the job are power, patronage and status. Don't let's underestimate how significant all this is on a purely human and personal level for Sunak. The problem is that now conservatism has been seen to fail, hanging on is simply cementing that in the public mind. Another year in power may be seen as guaranteeing another 5 years in opposition.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 2, 2023 10:25:49 GMT
One of their motivations may well be a desire to pass on the most poisoned of chalices to Labour. But if you go too long, then voters will see that is what you are doing and it becomes counter productive. I think we are there already.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 2, 2023 10:48:59 GMT
Aggregate Result of the 103 Council By-Elections (for 104 Seats) Since LE2023:
LAB: 39 (-1) LDM: 25 (+12) GRN: 13 (+4) CON: 13 (-12) IND: 8 (+3) LOC: 5 (-2) PLC: 1 (=) SNP: 0 (-4)
Which gives some context to the wee dafties who think no one will vote lib dems after the 2010 coalition. They do, in large numbers. Of course local election success isn't that much of a guide to general election prospects but I expect it's highly likely that in those areas where the lib dems have succeeded in local elections with Tory incumbent mps that the general electoral performance will significantly exceed the national polling.
It's why around 15% in a general election could achieve around 60 seats, adding to the Tory woes as 43 of the potential gains would be from the Tories.
So it's over to jib to explain why the lib dems will only win 10!
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 2, 2023 10:56:33 GMT
Having had the gag order reinstated that supposedly prevents the traitor uttering vile comments about the court staff, the rapist has switched to defamatory abuse directed at the judge's wife instead. Just cancel his bail release and lock the fascist up pending trial(s) youtu.be/8uCchtXjeXQ?si=xtD-A0XCxkGr5VUy
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 2, 2023 11:29:15 GMT
Interesting take regarding a recent right wing book in the US advocating change of policy. It is endorsed with a forward by new house speaker and God botherer Mike Johnson. In the book failures in U.S. Transport infrastructure are identified , these aren't as some might have expected down to years of chronic under investment and recovery of transport after covid delays, which incidentally saw more freight movement in the US last year than ever before. No none of these it's actually because transport Secretary Pete Buttigeig is gay! youtu.be/AjKetVw4a6A?si=Gn-5Tpp7BtYkdl5T
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Dec 2, 2023 11:33:20 GMT
crossbat11 - Mussolini, Franco, Quisling, now Tojo. Still a few to go without getting to the big one. Petain next perhaps?
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 2, 2023 11:50:16 GMT
pjw1961 Tojo an interesting choice , tried to shoot himself in the heart when arrested, missed, nursed back to health so he could be hung for crimes against humanity three years later. Next choice?
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Dec 2, 2023 12:32:36 GMT
pjw1961 Tojo an interesting choice , tried to shoot himself in the heart when arrested, missed, nursed back to health so he could be hung for crimes against humanity three years later. Next choice? View Attachment Mussolini and Quisling executed as well, but Franco undeservedly got to die peacefully in his bed aged 82. Justice doesn't always get done.
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Post by johntel on Dec 2, 2023 12:45:02 GMT
steve Yes, I agree, hence my comment about the moral and political case for an early general election being overwhelming. I think you're right too about the likelihood of things getting worse not better for the beleaguered Sunak. Stretching the electorate's patience may increase the likelihood of an historical punishment beating too when voters eventually get their chance All that said, I still think the Tories will go long. One of their motivations may well be a desire to pass on the most poisoned of chalices to Labour. The calculation there would be that their best chance of a quick political recovery might be a Labour Government plunging quickly into unpopularity and economic difficulty. That would be a gamble though. They may not be immediate beneficiaries if their reputation has been so badly trashed after 14 years of incumbency. I suspect the much slicker Labour Comms team will be milking the Tories poisonous legacy for some years to come. No need for Liam Byrne type notes either. This may allow them quite a bit of political slack amongst voters in the early years of a Starmer government. We're clearing up the mess folks. Give us time, won't you. Thanks. I think Sunak will be counting on the economy picking up a bit next year and has every reason to delay the election as long as possible. It's likely inflation will continue to fall and most importantly, house prices have stabilised and even gone up a bit in the last couple of months which will please a lot of disaffected Tory voters. The current dire growth predictions will probably be revised up again, as they often seem to be. Who knows, England doing well in the Euros may contribute to a bit of a feel good factor too.
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 2, 2023 13:25:22 GMT
crossbat11 - Mussolini, Franco, Quisling, now Tojo. Still a few to go without getting to the big one. Petain next perhaps? It's a toss up between Petain, Nick Clegg and Wayne Rooney for the next avatar.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 2, 2023 14:00:39 GMT
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mark61
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Post by mark61 on Dec 2, 2023 15:02:58 GMT
Hey Crossbat, How about Jude Bellingham? KRO!
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Post by mercian on Dec 2, 2023 15:17:57 GMT
mercian Of course the mail starts off with a lie in its first line 1.1million " immigrants " didn't arrive in Germany in 2015 The vast majority were seeking asylum from the devastating war in Syria. View Attachment An immigrant is someone who moves from one country into another, whether they be refugees, asylum seekers, economic migrants or anything else. It's not a lie, it's just using a single noun instead having to specify every single type in a headline.
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 2, 2023 15:21:56 GMT
Hey Crossbat, How about Jude Bellingham? KRO! What about the former Borussia Dortmund and current Real Madrid player?? 🤔🤣🏆 P S. More seriously. Wonderful footballer. World class.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 2, 2023 15:29:12 GMT
mercianYou know full well that isn't why the mail and the regime conflate migration and " illegal immigrants " with refugees.
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Post by mercian on Dec 2, 2023 15:31:28 GMT
pjw1961 Tojo an interesting choice , tried to shoot himself in the heart when arrested, missed, nursed back to health so he could be hung for crimes against humanity three years later. Next choice? View Attachment Mussolini and Quisling executed as well, but Franco undeservedly got to die peacefully in his bed aged 82. Justice doesn't always get done. Spain was neutral in WWII, though sympathetic to the Germans. There have been plenty of other dictators in history who died peacefully.
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