|
Post by graham on Dec 1, 2023 11:15:23 GMT
I am very saddened to hear of Alistair Darling's passing . The fulsome tributes across the political spectrum speak volumes as to the great decency of the man. I don't quite go along with suggestions that he has died 'young'. He was 70 - just a few months older than myself. Many will see that as a 'reasonable' age, and whilst he could have lived for a further decade or so , this is far removed from John Smith suddenly dying at 55 - or Donald Dewar at 61 - or indeed Robin Cook at 59.Others would cite the examples of Hugh Gaitskell having died at 56 , Iain Macleod at 57 and Anthony Crosland at 58. Perhaps we forget how many people do still pass away at circa 70 - or indeed fall well short of it in terms of longevity. Most of those were a long time ago. Life expectancy now at 69 is that you live to 86. www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/articles/lifeexpectancycalculator/2019-06-07The fact remains that by 69/70 many people are close to 'the finishing line' or have already passed through it.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,089
|
Post by steve on Dec 1, 2023 11:20:52 GMT
Electoral calculus prediction based on latest polling. Just the wafer thin 268 seat majority for Labour with Lib dems as third largest party. www.electoralcalculus.co.uk
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,318
|
Post by pjw1961 on Dec 1, 2023 11:29:22 GMT
Durham. Dawdon - Labour hold
Lab 514 Ind 339 Con 56 LD 10
Lab 55.9% (+5.4) Ind 36.9% (+3.5) Con 6.1% (-10.0) LD 1.1% (new)
|
|
|
Post by isa on Dec 1, 2023 11:36:44 GMT
A new polling toy to play with from Survation: Interesting! Some slightly odd results for Surrey - it's the first prediction I've seen that that the Lib Dems will take Mole Valley (now known as Dorking and Horley - ugh!) yet not any of the other target seats. Yes, I think the model might need a bit of tweaking. The new seat of Glastonbury and Somerton, which obviously includes a big chunk of the existing Somerton and Frome constituency where LDEM romped home in the recent by-election, is shown as being taken by CON by nearly 6%, with LDEM in third place. Perhaps even more surprising, though, is the projection that Mid Derbyshire will fall to the SNP. You could probably get pretty good odds on that happening.
|
|
|
Post by isa on Dec 1, 2023 11:39:14 GMT
Durham. Dawdon - Labour hold Lab 514 Ind 339 Con 56 LD 10 Lab 55.9% (+5.4) Ind 36.9% (+3.5) Con 6.1% (-10.0) LD 1.1% (new) For some reason, that irresistibly reminded me of the Pink Panther theme.
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 9,605
|
Post by Danny on Dec 1, 2023 11:41:25 GMT
The briefing room just now was discussing immigration.
The biggest takeaway was that immigration to the Uk is driven by demand in the UK for workers, particularly cheap workers. Always has been.
The two biggest groups are students and care workers. Students are bringing an increasing number of dependents with them than they used to, perhaps suggesting plans to stay rather longer than their courses. Care workers constitute 50% of work visas, and they have exemption from the usual wage threshold on minimum pay. Another 20% are NHS workers, who however get paid more.
The expert opined that our current record immigration is likely to fall, but from maybe 500,000 a year to 300,000, or 400,000 which would still be a pretty high total compared to historic precedents. Brexit has definitely not cut immigration.
Cutting off students would have serious consequences for eg university finances, where they reckon to be making a loss on each british student educated, made up by profit on foreign students.
Cutting off care workers would necessitate a steep rise in wages offered in the UK to find enough. Huge further pressure on local authority budgets. And presumably create an inflationary wage spiral and worker shortages, all of which the Bank of England has been worrying about a lot lately.
Bottom line -government never intended to cut immigration after brexit, because it plainly has not though it could have.
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,318
|
Post by pjw1961 on Dec 1, 2023 11:48:35 GMT
Interesting! Some slightly odd results for Surrey - it's the first prediction I've seen that that the Lib Dems will take Mole Valley (now known as Dorking and Horley - ugh!) yet not any of the other target seats. Yes, I think the model might need a bit of tweaking. The new seat of Glastonbury and Somerton, which obviously includes a big chunk of the existing Somerton and Frome constituency where LDEM romped home in the recent by-election, is shown as being taken by CON by nearly 6%, with LDEM in third place. Perhaps even more surprising, though, is the projection that Mid Derbyshire will fall to the SNP. You could probably get pretty good odds on that happening. Charles Stuart, aka 'Bonnie Prince Charlie', did get as far south as Derby in the 1745-6 Jacobite uprising. Perhaps the Scottish government wants to make a claim on that basis? If so crossbat11 needs to watch out, as a Scottish army got all the way to Worcester in 1651.
|
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,074
|
Post by domjg on Dec 1, 2023 11:51:39 GMT
Durham. Dawdon - Labour hold Lab 514 Ind 339 Con 56 LD 10 Lab 55.9% (+5.4) Ind 36.9% (+3.5) Con 6.1% (-10.0) LD 1.1% (new) For some reason, that irresistibly reminded me of the Pink Panther theme. Now stuck in my head thanks!
|
|
|
Post by isa on Dec 1, 2023 12:01:03 GMT
For some reason, that irresistibly reminded me of the Pink Panther theme. Now stuck in my head thanks! You're welcome.
|
|
markw
New Member
Posts: 28
|
Post by markw on Dec 1, 2023 12:06:43 GMT
|
|
|
Post by mark61 on Dec 1, 2023 12:07:37 GMT
News just in Sir James Dyson the inventor of a vacuum cleaner that blows the crap in your face when you empty it has lost his Libel case against the Mirror.
|
|
|
Post by shevii on Dec 1, 2023 12:11:32 GMT
I forgot about checking the National trust elections until now but having looked it up the "anti woke" failed again to get any candidates elected. The margin was 2 to 1 but probably only about 200k members voted out of the 5m membership so I suspect they're not done having a go at this.
Very unsatisfactory position all round but because of the belligerent attitude of the anti woke brigade it means you're "forced" into following the recommendations of the Trust board rather than having a genuine election based on what ideas and skills a candidate can bring to the Trust, although even if you did it'[s not like a political election where you know the characters and parties so you're just basing off a candidate's statement anyway.
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 9,605
|
Post by Danny on Dec 1, 2023 12:15:02 GMT
Other witnesses have described Hancock as a serial fantasist and liar even while in office. In his testimony, as in the book he wrote about the pandemic, he is trying to paint himself in the best possible light. The question is therefore so you actually believe his testimony? I believe what he said, that at the time he was not aware of any of these bad opinions later expressed by colleagues. From what he said he was badgering colleagues to take more action throughout the epidemic. I think that was over reaction, so I guess I should be anti Hancock, but many seem to think the steps were necessary even inadequate, so they logically ought to be cheering Hancock. His biggest crime seems to have been disputing with others who believed interventions were excessive. He seems to have been, and still is, deeply committed to the line proposed by the government medical officers and SAGE, based upon a hard intervention. What I really find extraodinary is that no one saw the flaws in intervention, where it just didnt work, and where the very places he was arging about and using as examples why more intervention was immediately needed, actually started to resolve and fall before the political argument agreed on any action. Hancock argued that the closer the arrival of a vaccine, then the greater the justification for a strong intervention, because you would reduced cases and deaths until it arrived and then forever. Those interested might refer to the hot debate on the covid thread, whether actually vaccine arrived in time to save anyone in this wave, before the wave ended anyway by itself. Thus, interventions didnt save anyone anyway, Hancock lost his race.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,089
|
Post by steve on Dec 1, 2023 12:44:44 GMT
markw I did point out that many of the most extreme risks related to the specific circumstances and lack of protective equipment in the 1980's and early 90's. For instance as late as the mid 1990's operational patrol officers in the metropolitan police didn't have any stab vests or anything more than a 12 inch long stick to protect themselves with. The units I served on had better equipment but 90%+ of uniformed officers didn't have similar protective equipment unless they bought it privately themselves. However that being said in 21-22 the last full year there were 41,000 assaults recorded on police officers in the UK, given that there are only around 80,000 police officers are in operational uniform roles where the overwhelming majority of assaults occur overwhelmingly amongst junior officers , the overall figure doesn't perhaps reflect the significant risk to those officers that the public see most. From personal memory I can't recall a single year between 1981 and around 1997, when I ceased to undertake much operational tasking, when I wasn't assaulted at least once. My personal list include some one trying to murder me with a firearm( but they missed) another mentally ill person trying to strangle me. Numerous grazes and bruises ,a fractured thumb where an individual bit me a broken nose ( twice) a lacerated cheek when a young girl aged about 14 attacked me with a very impressive set of false nails. A fractured skull, which still causes me some issues and eventually led to my choice to retire a little earlier than otherwise. I received criminal injury compensation for a small minority of the incidents, the usual bumps , bruises and grazes were regarded as routine. Faith was a tad surprised within the first year of our relationship to see me turn up home with a litany of minor injuries ( 1988 was a bumper year for me getting hit, my team started calling me the punch magnet). While I fully accept that other occupations particularly in emergency services carry a similar quantum of risk and others have greater dangers associated with the job itself .However there aren't many or any civilian occupations where individuals as part of their job are routinely attacked simply for doing their job.
|
|
|
Post by johntel on Dec 1, 2023 13:11:23 GMT
While I fully accept that other occupations particularly in emergency services carry a similar quantum of risk and others have greater dangers associated with the job itself . However there aren't many or any civilian occupations where individuals as part of their job are routinely attacked simply for doing their job.Professional wrestlers? Edit: or better, Self-Defence Instructors
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,089
|
Post by steve on Dec 1, 2023 13:46:49 GMT
Professional wrestlers?
Edit: or better, Self-Defence instructors.
Indeed but I can't recall inviting anyone to try and punch me in the face as part of my job, didn't stop them doing it!☺
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 5,909
|
Post by neilj on Dec 1, 2023 13:47:21 GMT
Looks like Sunak is nearly as popular in Greece as he is in the UK 😀
|
|
|
Post by mark61 on Dec 1, 2023 13:59:22 GMT
Just watching Hancock this morning at the Covid Inquiry, or is it Alan Partridge? How did such a Non-entity ever become a Cabinet minister? I can clearly recall Govt spokespeople regularly gaslighting us about the incredible depth of the talent pool in the Conservative party every time some hapless idiot had to be replaced at ministerial level.
For the love of God Mr Sunak please put us out of our misery and call a General Election.
|
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,074
|
Post by domjg on Dec 1, 2023 14:10:54 GMT
Looks like Sunak is nearly as popular in Greece as he is in the UK 😀 It's a common sentiment. I don't know any Greek but I can make out the word 'barbarians' there
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Dec 1, 2023 14:33:53 GMT
I was listening to the news about the hostage and prisoner releases between Hamas and Israel and it struck me that they both seem to be mainly following the 'women and children first' approach. I'm all in favour of that but I wonder what women's libbers think about it.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2023 15:01:02 GMT
I am very saddened to hear of Alistair Darling's passing . The fulsome tributes across the political spectrum speak volumes as to the great decency of the man. I don't quite go along with suggestions that he has died 'young'. He was 70 - just a few months older than myself. Many will see that as a 'reasonable' age, and whilst he could have lived for a further decade or so , this is far removed from John Smith suddenly dying at 55 - or Donald Dewar at 61 - or indeed Robin Cook at 59.Others would cite the examples of Hugh Gaitskell having died at 56 , Iain Macleod at 57 and Anthony Crosland at 58. Perhaps we forget how many people do still pass away at circa 70 - or indeed fall well short of it in terms of longevity. Gosh, for a devotee of the analysis of statistics, opinion polls etc you can be very obtuse and do work very hard to miss the point sometimes. If, on average, men currently die at the age of 80 it obviously follows that some do that precisely and then, conveniently drop dead*. But most will either die when they are younger or when they are older. As a consequence poeple who die at the age of 70 can reasonably be said to have died “early”. Because - statistically - they have. * Or, even more conveniently, just remain lying down.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2023 15:03:54 GMT
I was listening to the news about the hostage and prisoner releases between Hamas and Israel and it struck me that they both seem to be mainly following the 'women and children first' approach. I'm all in favour of that but I wonder what women's libbers think about it. I imagine they would be all for it. Dunno about the child libbers though. 👦 🧒 (I can easily imagine you pushing toward the lifeboats on the Titanic with a Wimmin’s Lib placard held aloft as both justification and battering ram.)
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,318
|
Post by pjw1961 on Dec 1, 2023 15:45:12 GMT
Looks like Sunak is nearly as popular in Greece as he is in the UK 😀 It's a common sentiment. I don't know any Greek but I can make out the word 'barbarians' there A word that the Greeks coined of course. It essentially meant anyone who didn't speak Greek.
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,318
|
Post by pjw1961 on Dec 1, 2023 15:49:45 GMT
I've updated my monthly poll averaging exercise and the Labour lead actually ticked up quite a bit in November, but that was influenced by that little flurry of polls showing towering 27 and 30 point Labour leads early in the month. We were back to the mediocrity of 18 and 19 point leads by the end of the month. Meanwhile the overall position plods relentlessly on toward a change of government election in 2024.
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Dec 1, 2023 16:03:16 GMT
It's a common sentiment. I don't know any Greek but I can make out the word 'barbarians' there A word that the Greeks coined of course. It essentially meant anyone who didn't speak Greek. I thought the literal meaning of a "barbarian" was someone who sported a beard. Barba being Latin for facial hair. Although I always thought that was a bit harsh on a well known philanthropist like Santa Claus.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,089
|
Post by steve on Dec 1, 2023 16:14:36 GMT
|
|
|
Post by barbara on Dec 1, 2023 16:16:51 GMT
I was listening to the news about the hostage and prisoner releases between Hamas and Israel and it struck me that they both seem to be mainly following the 'women and children first' approach. I'm all in favour of that but I wonder what women's libbers think about it. Well since women and children rarely cause any wars it seems fair enough to me. Dictatorships, wars, genocides are, in general, all men's doing so anything that helps women and children is entirely correct in my view.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2023 16:20:15 GMT
“The Barbarian” would be a great name for the barbers. You’d know you were in professional hands. A barber called “Ian” would be perfect - even though it’s a shit name and makes me think of Ian Botham*.
*Lives quite near to us and is not very highly regarded.
|
|
|
Post by graham on Dec 1, 2023 16:20:52 GMT
I am very saddened to hear of Alistair Darling's passing . The fulsome tributes across the political spectrum speak volumes as to the great decency of the man. I don't quite go along with suggestions that he has died 'young'. He was 70 - just a few months older than myself. Many will see that as a 'reasonable' age, and whilst he could have lived for a further decade or so , this is far removed from John Smith suddenly dying at 55 - or Donald Dewar at 61 - or indeed Robin Cook at 59.Others would cite the examples of Hugh Gaitskell having died at 56 , Iain Macleod at 57 and Anthony Crosland at 58. Perhaps we forget how many people do still pass away at circa 70 - or indeed fall well short of it in terms of longevity. Gosh, for a devotee of the analysis of statistics, opinion polls etc you can be very obtuse and do work very hard to miss the point sometimes. If, on average, men currently die at the age of 80 it obviously follows that some do that precisely and then, conveniently drop dead*. But most will either die when they are younger or when they are older. As a consequence poeple who die at the age of 70 can reasonably be said to have died “early”. Because - statistically - they have. * Or, even more conveniently, just remain lying down. 'Early' and 'Young' I see as not quite the same thing. John Smith died 'young' at 55. A person who dies at 70 might be said to have died 'early ' in that he/ she might have lived longer - but I do not think of that age as 'young.' 70 is surely 'elderly' - though not 'old.'
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2023 16:23:30 GMT
I was listening to the news about the hostage and prisoner releases between Hamas and Israel and it struck me that they both seem to be mainly following the 'women and children first' approach. I'm all in favour of that but I wonder what women's libbers think about it. Well since women and children rarely cause any wars it seems fair enough to me. Dictatorships, wars, genocides are, in general, all men's doing so anything that helps women and children is entirely correct in my view. Feminism at its very worst. Actually the ideal people who should be first in an orderly queue to lose their lives should be those responsible for wars in the first place. A popular idea that will never happen - sadly.
|
|