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Post by crossbat11 on Nov 29, 2023 17:52:03 GMT
Redfield Wilton Scotland Westminster 'For the first time, Labour leads the SNP in our Westminster VI poll. Scotland Westminster VI (26-27 November): Labour 36% (+4) SNP 34% (+2) Conservative 17% (-6) Lib Dem 6% (-2) in Reform 3% (+1) Green 2% (–) Other 0% (-1) Changes +/- 29-30 October' Pretty stark differences for SNP and LAB compared to the Ipsos poll. Hireton reckoned the Ipsos poll might tempt OldNat out of his UKPR semi-retirement. This R&W Scottish poll, commissioned by Graham I suspect, might delay Natty's reappearance. On the Colin polling threshold for disappearance, I used to think anything less than a 10% SNP lead put paid to Natty. Colin needed a +30% Tory VI for posting regularly. Trev tolerated about 28% but anything lower and it was time to spend more time with the family 🤣🤞 |
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Post by alec on Nov 29, 2023 17:54:04 GMT
I'm sincerely hoping that this one won't elicit a series of narky responses, but has anyone heard from oldnat of late? He is listed as last being online over two weeks ago, and his most recent posts don't suggest a layoff was imminent. I know some find this vaguely amusing, but I do get concerned when long time posters suddenly disappear without warning. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Nov 29, 2023 17:54:43 GMT
I wouldn't normally quote from Unherd, but this is by Michael Crick, who I have always thought of as a reliable reporter. Did Labour rig its selection votes?Last week, however, a scandal erupted that suggests Labour may be just as sleazy and corrupt as some of its Conservative opponents. In the plum seat of Croydon East, there are complaints that Labour’s selection of a parliamentary candidate may have involved identity theft and voter manipulation. Moreover, there are suggestions that this could be part of a much wider campaign that involves senior party figures, a systematic programme of data protection offences, and interference in Labour’s supposedly democratic procedures.Such allegations largely relate to the option for party members to use an electronic voting programme in parliamentary selections, which many see as a way for party bigwigs to fix elections for their chosen candidates. “The online voting is as dodgy as hell,” one successful candidate from outside London tells me. “There was an unbelievable discrepancy between votes on the day [of their selection meeting] and online votes.” Another candidate, who failed to win their distinguished reputation, added: “I was stitched up on the electronic online vote. I won the selection [among non-electric ballots] and the party machine then picked the winner, not the members.”What form might this “stitch-up” take? According to Joanna O’Pray, an alleged victim in Croydon East, she discovered that an e-vote had been issued in her name, even though she hadn’t applied for one. The former youth worker has already complained to the police and the Information Commissioner, and has submitted a data protection request to the Labour Party demanding to know if somebody fraudulently voted in her name.My Party also uses online voting for its internal selections, although this is run by an outside organisation. We used to use Electoral Reform Services but now use Mi-Voice. The records of who has and, more importantly, who has not voted should not be available to anyone in the Party until voting has closed. It seems that Labour have not even this basic safeguard. Lets imagine for a moment that this is all 100% true (and I'm sure the Labour Party would strongly dispute it) would that make make Labour "just as sleazy and corrupt as some of its Conservative opponents"? Is it really 'corruption' compared to the Michelle Mone affair for example? Doesn't even involve money! I suppose Crick is giving himself an out by the word "some". For the record our experience in a non-target seat where no one is bothered who the candidate eventually turns out to be, is that the Labour Party's IT systems are utterly crap and none of them work as intended, so 'cock-up' rather than conspiracy is also a distinct possibility. Croydon East is hardly a non-target seat. There is still no reason why the Labour Party should not be using an external provider like ERS or Mi-Voice to run their Parliamentary candidate selections. It's just good practice that no party member knows who has and has not voted before the polls close. We don't expect Returning Officers to provide the parties with lists of who has used their postal votes in official elections, for the obvious reason. |
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Post by graham on Nov 29, 2023 17:56:35 GMT
Redfield Wilton Scotland Westminster 'For the first time, Labour leads the SNP in our Westminster VI poll. Scotland Westminster VI (26-27 November): Labour 36% (+4) SNP 34% (+2) Conservative 17% (-6) Lib Dem 6% (-2) in Reform 3% (+1) Green 2% (–) Other 0% (-1) Changes +/- 29-30 October' Pretty stark differences for SNP and LAB compared to the Ipsos poll. Indeed so. I rest my case. |
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Post by James E on Nov 29, 2023 17:56:54 GMT
Graham is correct in that Ipsos's previous two Scottish Westminster polls have stood out as rather generous to the SNP, by 5 and 12 points compared to the prevailing polling average. They poll in Scotland quite rarely, so it's difficult to be exact about their house effects. It's a confusing picture at present with recent polls and other samples in Scotland ranging from a Labour lead of 6 points to and SNP lead of 10. Taking all sources (7) since the Rutherglen by-election, I have an overall average of SNP34%, Lab 34%, Con 17% for Scottish Westminster data. This includes a couple of sources people may not be aware of: Savanta's MRP to 3 Nov was SNP31, Lab 37, Con 17. And YouGov's 6-poll cross break average is SNP36, Lab 33, Con 13. Then there are the two polls mentioned above, and the 3 after 6 Oct listed here: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Scotland |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2023 18:14:59 GMT
I'm sincerely hoping that this one won't elicit a series of narky responses, but has anyone heard from oldnat of late? He is listed as last being online over two weeks ago, and his most recent posts don't suggest a layoff was imminent. I know some find this vaguely amusing, but I do get concerned when long time posters suddenly disappear without warning. Yes, that is concerning. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 29, 2023 18:17:49 GMT
James E Putting those numbers through electoral calculus give Labour +26 SNP -27 with one extra for the Lib dems and the Tories remaining on 6 Labour would be the largest Westminster party in Scotland again. Quite a turnaround.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Nov 29, 2023 18:22:06 GMT
Lets imagine for a moment that this is all 100% true (and I'm sure the Labour Party would strongly dispute it) would that make make Labour "just as sleazy and corrupt as some of its Conservative opponents"? Is it really 'corruption' compared to the Michelle Mone affair for example? Doesn't even involve money! I suppose Crick is giving himself an out by the word "some". For the record our experience in a non-target seat where no one is bothered who the candidate eventually turns out to be, is that the Labour Party's IT systems are utterly crap and none of them work as intended, so 'cock-up' rather than conspiracy is also a distinct possibility. Croydon East is hardly a non-target seat. There is still no reason why the Labour Party should not be using an external provider like ERS or Mi-Voice to run their Parliamentary candidate selections. It's just good practice that no party member knows who has and has not voted before the polls close. We don't expect Returning Officers to provide the parties with lists of who has used their postal votes in official elections, for the obvious reason. I was talking about Braintree, my point being that no one is going to bother to rig the vote here, and the systems (all of them) remain bloody awful - major topic of conversation at every meeting. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Nov 29, 2023 18:24:23 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2023 18:34:15 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 29, 2023 18:38:42 GMT
The Conservatives (with some help from Nick Clegg) really have broken Britain.
You are Jones from Bangor and I claim my 5 brexitanian groats
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 29, 2023 18:49:59 GMT
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Post by crossbat11 on Nov 29, 2023 18:53:53 GMT
I'm sincerely hoping that this one won't elicit a series of narky responses, but has anyone heard from oldnat of late? He is listed as last being online over two weeks ago, and his most recent posts don't suggest a layoff was imminent. I know some find this vaguely amusing, but I do get concerned when long time posters suddenly disappear without warning. As lululemonmustdobetter quite rightly said, my tendency to stray towards levity, piss-taking and flippancy does get the better of me at times, but I've always had an innate resistance to pomposity and self-importance. I'm not accusing you of those two vices here, by the way, and I would hope people take it as read that I wish OldNat, Colin and Trevor, amongst many other long time UKPR absentees, full fitness and health, but can't we allow people to take breaks from posting on here without the hasty rush to express concern about them and to plead for their timely return? Two elements of this make me feel uneasy. It suggests a sort of clubbishness amongst the regulars, and an open discussion forum should be the antithesis of that sort of Facebook group cosiness, and I also feel it inadvertently portrays, by default, those of us who don't indulge in this sort of distress signalling as disinterested in the welfare of others. It's perfectly understandable, and inevitable, to have preferences for certain posters, and to enjoy some contributions more than others. Even, if we wish to do so, to communicate with each other via other media, but we need to allow people to come and go as they please and not bereave their occasional absences so quickly and melodramatically. You never know, despite my piss-taking based theories as to why they've stopped posting, it's perfectly possible that our former regulars really have found something better to do. Perish the thought, they might have just got bored. I did once and disappeared for 12 months. The rumours of my death in that instance were much exaggerated! I'm pretty sure that they are too in the case of OldNat, Trevor and Colin. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Nov 29, 2023 19:45:29 GMT
The Conservatives (with some help from Nick Clegg) really have broken Britain. You are Jones from Bangor and I claim my 5 brexitanian groats Sorry steve, but the Lib Dems enabled 5 years of Cameron/Osborne vandalism of the state and they can't escape their share of the blame. The difference between me and Jib is that I'm prepared to think they may have learned the lesson they got handed in 2015 that most of their voters are anti-Tory ones. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2023 19:50:38 GMT
The Conservatives (with some help from Nick Clegg) really have broken Britain. You are Jones from Bangor and I claim my 5 brexitanian groats Sorry steve, but the Lib Dems enabled 5 years of Cameron/Osborne vandalism of the state and they can't escape their share of the blame. The difference between me and Jib is that I'm prepared to think they may have learned the lesson they got handed in 2015 that most of their voters are anti-Tory ones. They probably enabled everything that followed, with their inevitable collapse giving Cameron a narrow majority over Miliband. And so on…. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2023 19:56:51 GMT
It's perfectly understandable, and inevitable, to have preferences for certain posters, and to enjoy some contributions more than others. Even, if we wish to do so, to communicate with each other via other media. After my experience of actually meeting a poster in Richmond, N.York, being asked to take him to the “Sunak residence” to pay homage, listening to him banging on about “the Villa” and then leaving me to pay for the lattes and flapjack, that is not something I would recommend to anyone. |
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Post by mercian on Nov 29, 2023 20:00:13 GMT
The strange case of the missing marbles. We should return them from whence they came, obviously, but why stop at historical artefacts? How about some misappropriated territories? The Falklands, Gibraltar....... Gibraltar is the result of an international treaty and lightly ripping up treaties is a rabbit hole one should be careful of heading down, especially against the wishes of the inhabitants. The history of the Falklands however, is much, much more messy. We could give them back to the penguins. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Nov 29, 2023 20:06:26 GMT
Gibraltar is the result of an international treaty and lightly ripping up treaties is a rabbit hole one should be careful of heading down, especially against the wishes of the inhabitants. The history of the Falklands however, is much, much more messy. We could give them back to the penguins. I reckon the claims of Britain, Spain and Argentina are all pretty weak, so you could argue it is still up for grabs. I bet the Chinese would be interested  |
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Post by alec on Nov 29, 2023 20:15:16 GMT
crossbat11 - I understand what you say, but oddly enough, I feel in a strange way sort of connected to a disparate bunch of people on here. In real life I'd likely never meet such a range of different characters, or at least, if I did, we wouldn't discuss politics or other controversial topics like we do on here, migrating instead to 'people like us' or sticking to safe topics where we wouldn't argue. So I do feel a sense of loss when someone departs, and when I know them to be older posters, yes, I do worry a little about what may have happened. Don't know what that makes me, but that's how I feel.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2023 20:18:47 GMT
The Conservatives (with some help from Nick Clegg) really have broken Britain. You are Jones from Bangor and I claim my 5 brexitanian groats Sorry steve, but the Lib Dems enabled 5 years of Cameron/Osborne vandalism of the state and they can't escape their share of the blame. The difference between me and Jib is that I'm prepared to think they may have learned the lesson they got handed in 2015 that most of their voters are anti-Tory ones. These are the absolute dog days of this Government and I predict they’ll get destroyed next time out but LD will get not much out of it with only tactical voting where they already have MPs. They will get what they deserve after enabling Austerity - nowhere near power. |
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Post by jib on Nov 29, 2023 20:22:34 GMT
Sorry steve, but the Lib Dems enabled 5 years of Cameron/Osborne vandalism of the state and they can't escape their share of the blame. The difference between me and Jib is that I'm prepared to think they may have learned the lesson they got handed in 2015 that most of their voters are anti-Tory ones. These are the absolute dog days of this Government and I predict they’ll get destroyed next time out but LD will get not much out of it with only tactical voting where they already have MPs. They will get what they deserve after enabling Austerity - nowhere near power. Absolutely agree. Cue f******y f**k response. |
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Post by mercian on Nov 29, 2023 20:45:15 GMT
We could give them back to the penguins. I reckon the claims of Britain, Spain and Argentina are all pretty weak, so you could argue it is still up for grabs. I bet the Chinese would be interested The Stills voted overwhelmingly to stay British. The trouble with handing lands or properties 'back' to other countries (some of which didn't even exist at the time of appropriation - e,g, Greece, Argentina) is exactly what period of history do we go back to, and who decides? For instance if such restorations became normal, could we ask France to give back Anjou, Aquitaine, Gascony and Normandy and so on? Or is it only the UK that has to give stuff 'back'? Oh - just thought, we could ask for the 13 colonies back too! They'd come in handy. |
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Post by Danny on Nov 29, 2023 21:03:22 GMT
These are the absolute dog days of this Government and I predict they’ll get destroyed next time out but LD will get not much out of it with only tactical voting where they already have MPs. They will get what they deserve after enabling Austerity - nowhere near power. Thing is, in 2015 we saw a swing of libs back to con. I interpreted this then as why vote for the monkey when you might as well vote dircetly for the organ grinder. This time out its possible that could reverse, and a raft of con seats going to libs. At the moment we do not know how bad the situation will be for con at the election date, and so which seats might be in contention. But they could be cutting deep into con heartlands where people really dont like lab much either. This is still a story of voters leaving con, not rushing to lab. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Nov 29, 2023 21:07:24 GMT
I'm sincerely hoping that this one won't elicit a series of narky responses, but has anyone heard from oldnat of late? He is listed as last being online over two weeks ago, and his most recent posts don't suggest a layoff was imminent. I know some find this vaguely amusing, but I do get concerned when long time posters suddenly disappear without warning. Just taking a long overdue break from the site. I'll pop back to update my YG aggregated poll series. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Nov 29, 2023 21:13:25 GMT
I'm sincerely hoping that this one won't elicit a series of narky responses, but has anyone heard from oldnat of late? He is listed as last being online over two weeks ago, and his most recent posts don't suggest a layoff was imminent. I know some find this vaguely amusing, but I do get concerned when long time posters suddenly disappear without warning. Just taking a long overdue break from the site. I'll pop back to update my YG aggregated poll series. Well, well, well. OldNat is back. As I fully expected him to be too. Alec can now sleep peacefully. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 29, 2023 21:25:57 GMT
Cue f******y f**k response.
Makes a change from B & B.
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Post by leftieliberal on Nov 29, 2023 21:32:58 GMT
New Statesman article on Macron: Emmanuel Macron does not understand FranceA leading French thinker on the forces of a new movement that is neither left nor right. Reading this reminded me of Michael Young's book "The Rise of the Meritocracy". That was published back in 1958, but hasn't happened in reality yet. I wonder whether this French analysis will be equally far off the mark. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Nov 29, 2023 21:42:05 GMT
crossbat11 - I understand what you say, but oddly enough, I feel in a strange way sort of connected to a disparate bunch of people on here. In real life I'd likely never meet such a range of different characters, or at least, if I did, we wouldn't discuss politics or other controversial topics like we do on here, migrating instead to 'people like us' or sticking to safe topics where we wouldn't argue. So I do feel a sense of loss when someone departs, and when I know them to be older posters, yes, I do worry a little about what may have happened. Don't know what that makes me, but that's how I feel. The way you feel is the way you feel, Alec, and I fully respect your point of view and sentiments. It may well be how the majority of posters on here feel too, particularly the long standing and regular ones. Nothing wrong with that but I take a bit of a different view. Hence my post. I think, quite naturally, we all look for different things from this forum. However, I'm not sure I'm quite with you about it being a place, unlike the outside world, that guarantees meeting a disparate group of people, thereby facilitating a greater quality of debate than you're likely to get from your normal circle of friends, relatives, associates, colleagues and casual acquaintances. In fact, I'd say the very opposite is likely to be true. |
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Post by mark61 on Nov 29, 2023 21:50:52 GMT
I don't want to become embroiled in one of Britain's longest running Political disputes, The Jib v Steve Lib Dems conflict, but was wandering whether there may be an opportunity for the Lib Dems after the next election should there be a heavy Conservative defeat. I say after the next election as there seems precious little prospect that they will make much impact at the GE in 2024 other than pick up perhaps 20 or so seats courtesy of the ABCON vote. Their prospects seem to be tied to the performance of the Conservatives rather than Labour, If Labour do badly the Lib Dems are rarely if ever the beneficiaries, whereas the other way around.. well you get my drift. So lets assume the Conservatives do very badly, lets say down to 130 seats, there will be a battle within the Party about what direction to take, it will depend on who retains their seats, but will there be enough one nation or moderate Cons. left and do they have the fight to win the battle against the ERG. types? Again lets assume not. The Lib Dems to be kind, are at best treading water, they don't appear to have many (to say the least) Parliamentarians capable of making an Impact. ( I'm interested in Politics and can only name 3 of there MPs) There is virtually no prospect of them becoming a progressive LoC force because Labour and to a lesser extent The Greens occupy that Ground and as far as Labour Supporters are concerned they are much happier on it, and the Labour leadership have licence to tack left if they ever wish to do so, and yes I'm sorry Steve people do remember 2010 when the Lib Dems appeared to tack Left and then joined a Conservative Govt. and extracted next to no reward for doing so. So why not return to their Liberal roots, make a generous and open offer to Conservative One Nation refugees such as Stewart, Gauke, and Baroness Warsi ( even better if they could get a few of them into Parliament in 2024) and try to occupy the Centre Right ground that may be vacated by a febrile defeated Conservative Party It is difficult to see any other opportunities coming their way in the near future. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2023 21:54:10 GMT
These are the absolute dog days of this Government and I predict they’ll get destroyed next time out but LD will get not much out of it with only tactical voting where they already have MPs. They will get what they deserve after enabling Austerity - nowhere near power. Thing is, in 2015 we saw a swing of libs back to con. I interpreted this then as why vote for the monkey when you might as well vote dircetly for the organ grinder. This time out its possible that could reverse, and a raft of con seats going to libs. At the moment we do not know how bad the situation will be for con at the election date, and so which seats might be in contention. But they could be cutting deep into con heartlands where people really dont like lab much either. This is still a story of voters leaving con, not rushing to lab. Not according to opinion polls |
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