jib
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Post by jib on Nov 29, 2023 22:04:31 GMT
Thing is, in 2015 we saw a swing of libs back to con. I interpreted this then as why vote for the monkey when you might as well vote dircetly for the organ grinder. This time out its possible that could reverse, and a raft of con seats going to libs. At the moment we do not know how bad the situation will be for con at the election date, and so which seats might be in contention. But they could be cutting deep into con heartlands where people really dont like lab much either. This is still a story of voters leaving con, not rushing to lab. Not according to opinion polls Exactly. Cat's chance in hell they get anywhere near 25. In the Devon & Cornwall seats - Labour will win. Former seats like Cardiff Central, Bermondsey and Old Southwark, Montgomery....NOT A CHANCE! |
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 29, 2023 22:06:13 GMT
"The difference between me and Jib is that I'm prepared to think they may have learned the lesson they got handed in 2015 that most of their voters are anti-Tory ones."
How magnanimous of You.
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 29, 2023 22:10:40 GMT
"Cat's chance in hell they get anywhere near 25."
All polling suggests you're wrong.
You of course haven't the remotest grounds for your opinion it's just your weird obsession.
But we have already established that you're not prepared to put your money where your mouth is.
Time will tell.
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jib
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Post by jib on Nov 29, 2023 22:22:29 GMT
"Cat's chance in hell they get anywhere near 25." All polling suggests you're wrong. You of course haven't the remotest grounds for your opinion it's just your weird obsession. But we have already established that you're not prepared to put your money where your mouth is. Time will tell. Sure will. I'll be celebrating every disappointment for you with bubbly. |
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Post by James E on Nov 29, 2023 22:27:30 GMT
Thing is, in 2015 we saw a swing of libs back to con. I interpreted this then as why vote for the monkey when you might as well vote dircetly for the organ grinder. This time out its possible that could reverse, and a raft of con seats going to libs. At the moment we do not know how bad the situation will be for con at the election date, and so which seats might be in contention. But they could be cutting deep into con heartlands where people really dont like lab much either. This is still a story of voters leaving con, not rushing to lab. Not according to opinion polls Polling cross-breaks show the Tories doing especially badly in their 'heartlands'. For example, YouGov show the biggest Tory vote-losses and Labour making greatest progress with ABC1 voters and in the South of England (below). That does not mean that the LDs won't benefit from the collapse in the Tories' vote, too. They took many more seats in 1997 than in 1992 on a reduced vote share, and I would expect a similar effect if the Tory vote falls sharply, as expected. 25-30 seats looks likely to me. However, they are not doing particularly well in what were their strongest demographic groups at the last election. YouGov Cross-breaks (last 6 polls) - comparisons to YG analysis of GE2019 South England Lab 40% (+17) Con 28% (-27) LD 13% (-4) ABC1 VotersLab 49% (+16) Con 21% (-22) LD 11% (-3) yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/26925-how-britain-voted-2019-general-election(For a bit of added context - In GE1997, the Conservatives were still around 8 points ahead of Labour in the South of England in what is currently their previous worst result. ) |
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Post by mercian on Nov 29, 2023 22:27:47 GMT
"Cat's chance in hell they get anywhere near 25." All polling suggests you're wrong. You of course haven't the remotest grounds for your opinion it's just your weird obsession. But we have already established that you're not prepared to put your money where your mouth is. Time will tell. LibDems and predecessors have only got more than 25 seats 4 times since WWII. They were all quite recent (1997-2010). The lowest percentage votes of those was in 1997 when they got 16.8% of the vote. Most polls have them at about 11% at the moment. About the same as last time when they got 11 seats. It's obviously not impossible for them to increase their VI by 50% between now and the GE, but certainly not a foregone conclusion. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Nov 29, 2023 23:00:51 GMT
"Cat's chance in hell they get anywhere near 25." All polling suggests you're wrong. You of course haven't the remotest grounds for your opinion it's just your weird obsession. But we have already established that you're not prepared to put your money where your mouth is. Time will tell. Sure will. I'll be celebrating every disappointment for you with bubbly. This is the just the playing out of personal antagonism masquerading as serious political discussion. Kevin Keegan rides again. I'd luv it.... |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Nov 29, 2023 23:04:47 GMT
"The difference between me and Jib is that I'm prepared to think they may have learned the lesson they got handed in 2015 that most of their voters are anti-Tory ones." How magnanimous of You. Bearing in mind that I was still in local government 2010-14 and watched Lib Dem MPs merrily vote to cut the funding of the council I worked for by 50%, resulting in radical cuts to services and many redundancies including my own, yes I would say it is very magnanimous of me. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Nov 29, 2023 23:10:58 GMT
Just a word in defence of future Lib Dem prospects as a party. They have a very significant base of councillors. That provides (a) local publicity, (b) a cadre of activists and (c) gets the idea of voting Lib Dem into people's heads. They have in the past had some success (not universally) in converting council control into parliamentary seats. The local government base should ensure the Lib Dems at least remain a viable party in future elections.
The Greens are slowly building a similar base. UKIP never did.
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jib
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Post by jib on Nov 29, 2023 23:11:01 GMT
Sure will. I'll be celebrating every disappointment for you with bubbly. This is the just the playing out of personal antagonism masquerading as serious political discussion. Kevin Keegan rides again. I'd luv it.... I will "love it" Every thread of disappointment on their faces. Looking forward, May 2024 with any luck. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Nov 29, 2023 23:17:55 GMT
The political punditry halls of infamy are full of people predicting electoral disaster for the Lib Dems only to find that their doomsday scenarios frustratingly failing to materialise.
The Lib Dems usually defy their lacklustre mid-term polling ratings come election time and are past masters at making themselves beneficiaries of anti incumbent sentiment that can't quite express itself by going the whole Lab to Con or Con to Lab hog.
I really think this "voters will never forgive 2010-15" schtick is a classic political hothouse delusion and not reflected in the electorate at large. Going back to the point I was making to Alec, it's this forum at its weakest. We are but a tiny and very unrepresentative slice of the population. Prejudices linger here where they have largely evaporated in the wider world.
That's why I think the Lib Dems are now free of their coalition hangover and in an excellent position to be a pivotal force both during and after the next election.
I suspect there is actually a perfect storm of propitious political and electoral circumstances gathering for them as we head into the last twelve months of this Parliament
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Nov 29, 2023 23:25:12 GMT
"Cat's chance in hell they get anywhere near 25." All polling suggests you're wrong. You of course haven't the remotest grounds for your opinion it's just your weird obsession. But we have already established that you're not prepared to put your money where your mouth is. Time will tell. Sure will. I'll be celebrating every disappointment for you with bubbly. Even if it means a tory keeping their seat? The LDs are a tactical weapon to be used against blue wall/home counties tories. Personally I don't want to see them anywhere near being in a coalition with Lab. A comfortable Lab majority is hopefully what's on the cards and LDs depriving the tories of southern seats have an important role to play in delivering that. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Nov 29, 2023 23:30:12 GMT
This is the just the playing out of personal antagonism masquerading as serious political discussion. Kevin Keegan rides again. I'd luv it.... I will "love it" Every thread of disappointment on their faces. Looking forward, May 2024 with any luck. Get out of the bitter barn and play in the hay! (quote from 'Friends') The tories are going down big stylee. Lets celebrate that. |
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jib
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Post by jib on Nov 29, 2023 23:42:09 GMT
I will "love it" Every thread of disappointment on their faces. Looking forward, May 2024 with any luck. Get out of the bitter barn and play in the hay! (quote from 'Friends') The tories are going down big stylee. Lets celebrate that. Absolutely. But the Lib Dems are sullied for at least a generation - so 2035, maybe, when their penance ends. There will be no redemption in 2024. The opportunists that they are, they will try and present an anti Labour stance soon after a Labour win. One dreads to think what nickname dear steve will have for Sir Keir. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2023 23:54:56 GMT
Sure will. I'll be celebrating every disappointment for you with bubbly. Even if it means a tory keeping their seat? The LDs are a tactical weapon to be used against blue wall/home counties tories. Personally I don't want to see them anywhere near being in a coalition with Lab. A comfortable Lab majority is hopefully what's on the cards and LDs depriving the tories of southern seats have an important role to play in delivering that. I think there might be something in that. Given my parochial experience in the Somerton and Frome by-election a few months ago, I can see plenty of tactical voting in erstwhile LDEM seats in the southwest to ensure CON get a good shoeing. |
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Post by graham on Nov 29, 2023 23:58:34 GMT
Sure will. I'll be celebrating every disappointment for you with bubbly. Even if it means a tory keeping their seat? The LDs are a tactical weapon to be used against blue wall/home counties tories. Personally I don't want to see them anywhere near being in a coalition with Lab. A comfortable Lab majority is hopefully what's on the cards and LDs depriving the tories of southern seats have an important role to play in delivering that. To be accurate here, LDs taking Tory seats in the South or anywhere else make no difference to Labour obtaining a majority in that both parties count as Opposition MPs. Delivery of a Labour majority depends entirely on the number of Labour MPs - not the split between LD and Tory MPs. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2023 1:03:20 GMT
Not seen much analysis since, (after the initial reaction, of course), but I can't help thinking that today's, (yesterday's!), PMQs might have a significant influence.
Starmer so 'owned' the session, and Sunak seemed so 'Little Boy Lost', not least among his own benches, that I wouldn't be surprised if some fundamental questions were being asked in the upper Tory echelons as to whether he is tenable as leader going into the GE.
He's probably a dead man walking, but any other pretenders to the crown probably won't fancy the poisoned chalice this side of the election. Far better for Sunak to take the hit and for them to try to resurrect something from the ashes.
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 30, 2023 6:58:52 GMT
Lawrence O'Donnell on the banality of crazy, how the legacy news providers who provide news coverage to 80%+ of viewers simply no longer cover the lies and fascist utterings of the traitor. It's why the traitor is running neck and neck with Biden as his worst excesses aren't shown at all. People get the impression that all republicans are glued to fox news and other far right cable channels. This simply isn't true while individual programmes on these channels may of course have higher audiences. While Fox news is the largest cable news channel in the US just ahead of MSNBC neither on average have much above two million viewers a day. NBC , CBS or ABC routinely broadcast to 8 times the numbers. It's akin to Sky News v BBC in the U.K. The difference however is in the UK we don't have a fascist pathological liar convicted rapist and fraudster on bail for 91 felonies and who wants to be a dictator running for head of state. Before 2016 the traitors utterings would be prime time news,now because of the repetition and normalizing impact of the constant litany of lies from 2015 on it is no longer deemed news worthy. The closest comparison we have here is Spaffer but he's a rank amature compared to the traitor. youtu.be/1bB6S7SRrBY?si=W3MrHUaHQeGVCwT- |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 30, 2023 7:32:55 GMT
Thing is, in 2015 we saw a swing of libs back to con. I interpreted this then as why vote for the monkey when you might as well vote dircetly for the organ grinder. This time out its possible that could reverse, and a raft of con seats going to libs. At the moment we do not know how bad the situation will be for con at the election date, and so which seats might be in contention. But they could be cutting deep into con heartlands where people really dont like lab much either. This is still a story of voters leaving con, not rushing to lab. Not according to opinion polls Opinion polls on the whole predicted share of national vote. Libs will do badly in this. They will win seats because their vote will concentrate in certain specific seats. We have had long discussion of which seats will vote tactically lib, and those seats in 2010 tended to be conservative ones. This time round there will be a lot of seats where con lose and voters will be thinking can they stand lab or are libs the better bet because they are conservative really, but cannot vote for this shower. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 30, 2023 7:34:06 GMT
Yougov polling yesterday on rejoining the single market including free movement. yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/47997-britons-support-rejoining-the-single-market-even-if-it-means-free-movement"New YouGov data indicates that more Britons are in fact supportive of joining the single market, even under this condition( free movement), than in opposition. Just short of six in ten Britons (57%) would support the UK joining the single market, even if this meant a return to free movement, with only around one in five (22%) opposed." Overwhelming support with nearly 40% of leave voters supporting the move with just 28% strongly opposed and over 80% of remain voters with just 1% of remain voters strongly opposed. Why vanilla extract Starmer doesn't adopt what is clearly a vote winning position is a circle Labour party members might like to try and square. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Nov 30, 2023 7:41:39 GMT
Even if it means a tory keeping their seat? The LDs are a tactical weapon to be used against blue wall/home counties tories. Personally I don't want to see them anywhere near being in a coalition with Lab. A comfortable Lab majority is hopefully what's on the cards and LDs depriving the tories of southern seats have an important role to play in delivering that. To be accurate here, LDs taking Tory seats in the South or anywhere else make no difference to Labour obtaining a majority in that both parties count as Opposition MPs. Delivery of a Labour majority depends entirely on the number of Labour MPs - not the split between LD and Tory MPs. Fair enough. Could be important if it's close which hopefully it won't be but the bigger the gap between their seat counts the better. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 30, 2023 7:42:50 GMT
But the Lib Dems are sullied for at least a generation - so 2035, maybe, when their penance ends. Libs were sullied because people voted lib and got con. However the situation now is voters deserting con, so where do they go? They may find libs=tory light very attractive. What really hurt them in 2015 suddenly becomes a benefit. Con have conveniently for libs abandoned the centre right. We arent going to be able to make better predictions until we know the general balance lab and con as the date of an election comes near. Con have set the scene for a spring election, but they may still fancy their chances of holding on to the latest date. By then their position could have improved, but it could also have become very much worse. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 30, 2023 7:54:27 GMT
Why vanilla extract Starmer doesn't adopt what is clearly a vote winning position is a circle Labour party members might like to try and square. Some possibilities? 1) He personally hates the EU and labour on the whole has been anti it historically. 2) His goal is to anihilate con. He isnt worried about gathering up more votes to lab, but denying them to con. He would love libs to move into second place above con. Thus he cannot give con any cause to rally voters, such as vote con to keep brexit. Athough I can see strategists arguing this one, whether pushing con to the right is highly desireable. Only a lot of brexiteers werent really hard right, a lot were leftish lab voters. Theres an argument con voters put up with the insane right because they wanted brexit. 3) Dont gloat! Let the repentant leavers slink back to lab without calling them out for their foolishness. We debated this before, voters dont like to be told they were wrong. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 30, 2023 8:45:05 GMT
Danny
Given that it's highly likely that something resembling single market membership is going to be necessary for a Labour government to address the disaster of Brexit and given the polling I really don't understand why the Labour leadership doesn't adopt the aspiration, as not only a vote winning strategy, but one that would allow them to claim it's enactment as an electoral promise kept.
Rather than the current make Brexit work bollocks, where it's going to be portrayed by the brexitanian right and their client media as a failure.
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Post by crossbat11 on Nov 30, 2023 8:45:18 GMT
Even if it means a tory keeping their seat? The LDs are a tactical weapon to be used against blue wall/home counties tories. Personally I don't want to see them anywhere near being in a coalition with Lab. A comfortable Lab majority is hopefully what's on the cards and LDs depriving the tories of southern seats have an important role to play in delivering that. To be accurate here, LDs taking Tory seats in the South or anywhere else make no difference to Labour obtaining a majority in that both parties count as Opposition MPs. Delivery of a Labour majority depends entirely on the number of Labour MPs - not the split between LD and Tory MPs. But didn't the Tories hoovering up dozens of Lib Dem seats in 2015 give them their wafer thin overall majority? Labour collapsed in Scotland but relatively few Tory and Labour seats exchanged hands in that rather bizarre general election. The Tories won by basically eating their former coalition partners alive. Seems to me that the more seats the Tories lose, whoever the captors, the more that assists an overall Labour majority, especially if Lib Dem voters also vote ABT tactically in seats where Labour are the contenders. Labour voters likely to return the favour too. That process is another reason to beware taking their current opinion poll VI ratings at face value. Just building on the point I was making yesterday about their habit of bettering desultory mid term opinion polling when elections come calling, I think they have two very big things going for them that allows them to convert a relatively small VI into quite a respectable number of seats (they still get robbed by FPTP though). Firstly, they are usually very well organised on the ground in seats that they specifically target and, secondly, they are battle hardened, wily and experienced electoral campaigners. Much more so than any other of the smaller parties like the Greens and ReformUK. By the way, it is also completely risible to claim that they are a toxic political brand in need of long term decontamination. No party in that predicament could have made the spectacular by election gains that they have made in this parliament, nor won as many councillors in local council elections as they have too. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Nov 30, 2023 9:00:54 GMT
But didn't the Tories hoovering up dozens of Lib Dem seats in 2015 give them their wafer thin overall majority? Labour collapsed in Scotland but relatively few Tory and Labour seats exchanged hands in that rather bizarre general election. The Tories won by basically eating their former coalition partners alive. Seems to me that the more seats the Tories lose, whoever the captors, the more that assists an overall Labour majority, especially if Lib Dem voters also vote ABT tactically in seats where Labour are the contenders. Labour voters likely to return the favour too. That process is another reason to beware taking their current opinion poll VI ratings at face value. Just building on the point I was making yesterday about their habit of bettering desultory mid term opinion polling when elections come calling, I think they have two very big things going for them that allows them to convert a relatively small VI into quite a respectable number of seats (they still get robbed by FPTP though).
Firstly, they are usually very well organised on the ground in seats that they specifically target and, secondly, they are battle hardened, wily and experienced electoral campaigners. Much more so than any other of the smaller parties like the Greens and ReformUK.By the way, it is also completely risible to claim that they are a toxic political brand in need of long term decontamination. No party in that predicament could have made the spectacular by election gains that they have made in this parliament, nor won as many councillors in by elections as they have too. There is a third. The Lib Dems (and other minor GB parties, except recently the SNP) get minimal coverage between elections as the media concentrates on the Con v Lab 'Punch and Judy' show. In elections the legislation kicks in that requires the broadcast media to give more air time to all parties that run a significant number of candidates. Therefore the Lib Dem leader tends to be on the telly a lot and people are reminded they exist. It also means in 2024 we will be obliged to put up with a lot of Tice (or perhaps Farage), which I could do without to be honest. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 30, 2023 9:12:21 GMT
pjw1961 Given that neither of us supported the Lib Dems during the coalition and that just three of the current 15 mps were even MPs at the time and that it is the party specific stated intent to never support a Tory government again it's not a big ask to accept reality. Just as I accept the reality that throwing Jeremy Corbyn out of the parliamentary party and removing the malign influence of the far left has restored Labour's electability I don't see any magnanimity required it's just facts. Btw mercian electoral calculus estimates around 30 lib dems seats with no increase in vote share primarily because in the 20 odd closest seats where lib dems came second to the Tories the Lib dems vote share has remained more or less unchanged since 2019 while the Tories have collapsed, it's an almost unique occasion where first past the post might assist lib dems rather than reduce their chances. If as I think is possible the vote share during a general election campaign does rise to around 15% this actually would probably result in a parliamentary representation closer to 50 all bar one gain being from the Tories.
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Post by athena on Nov 30, 2023 9:16:38 GMT
mark61 Totally agree that there's space on the centre-right for the LDs and why they don't seem interested in occupying that territory has always been a bit of a mystery to me. They're not credible as a left-wing alternative to Labour. I think one problem may be that their activists/membership are more leftwing than their voters. The other, not entirely unrelated, seems to be that the party structure isn't conducive to allowing a leadership team to take charge of the policy platform and make a serious bid for power - or at least that's the construction I put on the rather dismissive comments of some of the softer right Tories. They - like pjw1961 - take the view that the point of a political party is to win power and they aren't interested in the LDs because they can't see a route by which the party can be converted into a Westminster election-winning machine. From this perspective the LDs took the wrong lessons from their brief stint in government. I think you could argue that the problem wasn't that they chose to go into coalition with the Tories, but that come 2015 they had so little to show for it. Yes, I know LDs always claim they softened Tory austerity, but the electorate didn't buy that. A failed referendum on a voting system that's only slightly more proportional than FPTP isn't much to show for five years in govt. LDs needed to spend the coalition years jumping up and down about distinctively LD policies they were forcing the Tories to implement. They didn't, so their right-leaning voters figured they might as well vote for Cameron's de-toxified Tories and their left-leaning voters were furious at the perceived betrayal. Soft right Tories shake their heads at the party's energetic efforts to disavow its time in power and the compromises it presumably thought reasonable at the time and reckon there's more chance of persuading the Conservative party to see sense than getting the LDs to be realistic (cliche alert) about the hard choices that parties serious about government have to make.
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Post by crossbat11 on Nov 30, 2023 9:18:38 GMT
pnw1961
Yes, I agree, the increased media exposure that an election campaign will afford them will be a significant shot in the arm for political parties like the Lib Dems.
I also happen to think that Davey will prove to be much more of an effective campaigner than past leaders like Farron, Cable and Swinson were.
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 30, 2023 9:24:49 GMT
crossbat11As you say the Lib Dems are exceptional at targeting those seats they consider in play, they never leave party members alone with a constant stream of information and requests for active participation, something I didn't experience to anything like the same extent in the Labour party. Currently there's about 20-30 additional seats which will be focussed on at the general election with the exception of one SNP seat they are all Tory held. I think that's setting the bar a little low , there are constituencies like mine which neighbour two current lib dems seats and where the new seat to the north is highly likely to go lib dem and where local elections have seen us win control for the first time ever, that probably justify additional targeting. If it doesn't happen Labour would be the natural ABT vote here, I've no major problem with that ,I still have some fondness for my old party, I suspect that the disaster of the coalition for the Lib dems has diminished its self belief in it's ability to win such seats,but time will tell. A good general election campaign could increase the target list to around 50.
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