18-OCT 2023 : LAB 44% / CON 28% / LDM 9% / REF 7%

[Danny]

Oh, it seems the Scottish government might seek to ban further nuclear power stations in Scotland. I can see why, they have lots of wind and even water power, not to mention the gas and oil. Why would you build a nuclear plant there to service people in England?

[Danny]

Ye gods! R4 just carrying a piece about an Israeli whose hostage relative just got released. Decribed how her kibbutz heaven had been turned into a hell, covered with bloodstains and spent cartridge cases.

Can you believe this? What should a Gazan say about the rubble which was once their streets?

[steve]

The full story of Susan Hall's" pickpocket adventures on the London underground, " fantasy production co starring Nick Ferrari

youtu.be/REI9pl3T6aI?si=bGAko27hVpChZdkH

[crossbat11]

Nov 29, 2023 8:44:02 GMT steve said:

The full story of Susan Hall's" pickpocket adventures on the London underground, " fantasy production co starring Nick Ferrari

youtu.be/REI9pl3T6aI?si=bGAko27hVpChZdkH

Beyond the hilarity and utter implausibility of Hall's account, given an undeserved sympathetic hearing by a tame host in Ferrari, there is a serious point here. And it's a very worrying one too.

The governing party's candidate to become the Mayor of the country's capital city is either a moron or a liar. Possibly both

Jeepers creepers, what is becoming of our democracy.

[steve]

Andrew Marr on how the only chance of " making Brexit work" for a Labour government is to quietly reverse it while not saying so.
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2023/11/andrew-marr-labour-rejoin-european-single-market

[steve]

"UK ministers considering limit on foreign care worker dependants
Workers could be restricted to bringing one relative under plans to reduce migration"


Given that care workers are often women with children, that's definitely going to work.
Still elderly brexitanians could always stop being care receivers and get off their mobility scooters and get back to work.
The nursing homes and crop fields are waiting for you to do your civic duty.

Sometimes catering to xenophobic stupidity is just bizarre.


Barclay also lying about student dependent numbers being cut by 150,000 most student's with dependents are post graduate such as doctoral research scientists, essential to the uk, considerably less than 10% of undergraduate students have dependents if you banned all of those who undergraduates that had, assuming the dependents didn't have the right to reside , which many do then the reduction might number 10,000.

[Danny]

Reith lectures this year about democracy, Ben Ansell. The speaker started off by noting around world democracy is a modern invention of the 20th century which is now in decline and losing credibility. He argues that democracy is not so much about everyone having their say, but a means to arbitrate between those who completely disagree, and creating an outcome where the winner always has to modify their policies to accommodate the loser. If it doesnt do that, then it collapses.

Political parties have a vested interest in ignoring their opponents wishes so as to grab votes. But doing so undermines the system.

PR would improve representation of minorites who get almost permanently excluded, like libs, greens, UKIP.

In the US, only 4% of marriages are a democrat marrying a republican.

The speaker said his great grandfather, a shipbuilder had no vote, and people today are amazed at that. He asks whether in another 100 years time, people will look back and marvel why their own ancestors had one at all.

He notes the problem of the usefulness of the house of lords is no one can agree on the question what better might replace it. And in all this current members of the commons dont like aynthing which threatens their hold on power.

[steve]

Ansell started his lecture by mentioning that we all knew some one who had lost a democratic mandate.

Presumably he included every British citizen who had their democratic mandate to vote in European union elections stolen from them by the current government.

[Danny]

Nov 29, 2023 9:51:44 GMT steve said:

"UK ministers considering limit on foreign care worker dependants
Workers could be restricted to bringing one relative under plans to reduce migration"


Given that care workers are often women with children, that's definitely going to work.
Still elderly brexitanians could always stop being care receivers and get off their mobility scooters and get back to work.
The nursing homes and crop fields are waiting for you to do your civic duty.

Sometimes catering to xenophobic stupidity is just bizarre.

Fundamentally this is all about whether one thinks immigration per se is good or bad. If you think its good, theres no problem anyone bringing all their friends and relatives.

If you think its bad, then you have to prevent it, or at least mitigate its effects. One way to do that is make sure the only people who come here will choose to go back where they came from when you no longer need them, or they are old and a burden. One way to do that is make sure they leave their families behind. Its not clear to me this would mean not enough people would want to come, only they would be a group more likely to leave again. (though of course, I did last year speak to a foreign care worker whose reason for being here was maybe not about money but being gay, who was very happy to leave everything at home back home. So perhaps the rule will encourage more permanet stayers. But at least they wont  be a two for the work of one deal)

[steve]

The Gotham Awards are American film awards, presented annually to the makers of independent films at a ceremony in New York City they've been presented for 32 years.

Yesterday film icon Robert DeNiro was giving a presentation at the event.

His remarks had been edited by some person or persons unknown to exclude his comments on the Traitor and wasn't going to miss his opportunity and had his unedited version on his phone.

Here's a brief extract.

youtu.be/EKSktq30pK4?si=h68AaAgM9IWcctC-

[Deleted]

Rather rude of Batty to interrupt the Steve and Danny chronicles.

[leftieliberal]

Nov 29, 2023 9:26:15 GMT steve said:

Andrew Marr on how the only chance of " making Brexit work" for a Labour government is to quietly reverse it while not saying so.
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2023/11/andrew-marr-labour-rejoin-european-single-market

He also writes:

Because of the damage done to the public realm in the past 13 years, the early years of a Labour government would inevitably feel like a trudge, not a revolution. But in time, if growth comes, the atmosphere – the animal spirits – will revive. Nobody discusses these things, but it seems likely to me that eventually some form of wealth tax, perhaps an increase in capital gains tax, will become unavoidable, even popular. As a country, we tax work too much and accumulated wealth too little, and this is a truth increasingly noticed by younger voters.

[leftieliberal]

I wouldn't normally quote from Unherd, but this is by Michael Crick, who I have always thought of as a reliable reporter.

Did Labour rig its selection votes?

Last week, however, a scandal erupted that suggests Labour may be just as sleazy and corrupt as some of its Conservative opponents. In the plum seat of Croydon East, there are complaints that Labour’s selection of a parliamentary candidate may have involved identity theft and voter manipulation. Moreover, there are suggestions that this could be part of a much wider campaign that involves senior party figures, a systematic programme of data protection offences, and interference in Labour’s supposedly democratic procedures.

Such allegations largely relate to the option for party members to use an electronic voting programme in parliamentary selections, which many see as a way for party bigwigs to fix elections for their chosen candidates. “The online voting is as dodgy as hell,” one successful candidate from outside London tells me. “There was an unbelievable discrepancy between votes on the day [of their selection meeting] and online votes.” Another candidate, who failed to win their distinguished reputation, added: “I was stitched up on the electronic online vote. I won the selection [among non-electric ballots] and the party machine then picked the winner, not the members.”

What form might this “stitch-up” take? According to Joanna O’Pray, an alleged victim in Croydon East, she discovered that an e-vote had been issued in her name, even though she hadn’t applied for one. The former youth worker has already complained to the police and the Information Commissioner, and has submitted a data protection request to the Labour Party demanding to know if somebody fraudulently voted in her name.

My Party also uses online voting for its internal selections, although this is run by an outside organisation. We used to use Electoral Reform Services but now use Mi-Voice. The records of who has and, more importantly, who has not voted should not be available to anyone in the Party until voting has closed. It seems that Labour have not even this basic safeguard.

[steve]

"Rather rude of Batty to interrupt the Steve and Danny chronicles."

I was posting stuff that some might find interesting, if they don't that's fine don't read it . But we can always rely on Paul to add something constructive to the debate.

[crossbat11]

Fred the Northern Cat (he lives in a Red Wall seat) providing some insight here into how the cost of living crisis and high energy bills, especially in the winter, can have not only unlikely but also often overlooked victims.

An interesting perspective, I think.


youtube.com/shorts/cCDT4dObs1o?si=POvkt326OULtVEhj

[steve]

Interesting PMQ's you know a government's on its last legs when the whole opposition laughs at the absurdity of the Prime minister , while his own back benchers sulk.

[thylacine]

Nov 29, 2023 12:55:56 GMT steve said:

Interesting PMQ's you know a government's on its last legs when the whole opposition laughs at the absurdity of the Prime minister , while his own back benchers sulk.

It was giving me vibes of Johnson in his final days. Surely the Tories haven't got another roll of the dice in them?

Also just to add I'm glad you all seem to be back last night I was concerned I might of been blocked by everyone 🤣

[Deleted]

Very droll:

“ Predictably, Downing Street has rejected Ursula von der Leyen’s suggestion that the UK should rejoin the EU. (See 1.45pm.) Asked about her comment, the PM’s spokesperson said:

“It’s through our Brexit freedoms that we are, right now, considering how to further strengthen our migration system.
It is through our Brexit freedoms we are ensuring patients in the UK can get access to medicines faster, that there is improved animal welfare. That is very much what we are focused on.”

Obviously it’s great news that our “Brexit freedoms” are paying such excellent dividends after just a few years…

[hireton]

New Ipsos Scotland poll:

www.ipsos.com/en-uk/double-digit-lead-for-snp-majority-of-public-think-michael-matheson-should-resign

Key findings as summarised by Ipsos:

"The SNP remains the dominant party in Scotland, leading Labour by 10 points on Westminster General Election voting intention and by 12 points on Scottish Parliament constituency voting intention.

A majority of the Scottish public (61%) think Michael Matheson should resign over the issue of his data roaming bill.

Rishi Sunak’s ratings among the Scottish public have worsened, with 72% dissatisfied with his performance as Prime Minister now, compared with 53% a year ago.

Support for Scottish independence is at a similar level to our last poll in May, with Yes slightly ahead. Among those with a voting intention and very likely to vote, 54% say they would vote Yes in an immediate referendum while 46% say they would vote No."

Hopefully this might prompt a comment from oldnat whom I have not seen posting recently. And perhaps davwel as well?

[hireton]

Ipsos Scotland X thread on its latest Scotland poll:

[neilj]

Details of the above Ipsos poll for those without twitter
Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

SNP: 40% (-1)
LAB: 30% (+1)
CON: 15% (-1)
LDM: 6% (=)
GRN: 3% (=)

Via
@ipsosscotland
, 20-26 Nov.
Changes w/ 15-21 May.

[neilj]

Polling on the EU YouGov, startling turn around from 7 years ago

The EU transition period ended on Dec 31st 2020. Since then, do you think Brexit has gone well or badly?

Well: 12%
Neither well nor badly: 20%
Badly: 61%

A majority of Britons would support joining the single market, even if this meant free movement of people

All Britons
Support: 57%
Oppose: 22%

Leave voters
Support: 35%
Oppose: 45%

Remain voters
Support: 83%
Oppose: 6%

Leave voters who currently intend to vote Labour would also support joining the single market (even if it meant free movement of people) by 53% to 31%

[graham]

Nov 29, 2023 15:41:20 GMT neilj said:

Details of the above Ipsos poll for those without twitter
Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

SNP: 40% (-1)
LAB: 30% (+1)
CON: 15% (-1)
LDM: 6% (=)
GRN: 3% (=)

Via
@ipsosscotland
, 20-26 Nov.
Changes w/ 15-21 May.

In Scotland Ipsos appears to be consistently out of line with other pollsters.

[James E]

Nov 29, 2023 16:03:55 GMT neilj said:

Polling on the EU YouGov, startling turn around from 7 years ago  [edited]

...
Leave voters
Support: 35%
Oppose: 45%
...

Leave voters who currently intend to vote Labour would also support joining the single market (even if it meant free movement of people) by 53% to 31%

So, further evidence that the 2016 Leave voters who now support Labour are untypical of Leave voters as a whole: exactly the point Sir John Curtice made in a YouTube clip I posted last week. 

The Conservatives still have a fair-sized lead with Leave voters - 43% to 27% per a running average of YouGov polls - but this needs to be seen in the context of the 74/14 lead they had at GE2019. So that's a 22% swing. But this is fuelled largely by taking disillusioned 2016Leave supporters rather than those who still believe in it. 

[pjw1961]

Nov 29, 2023 12:55:56 GMT steve said:

Interesting PMQ's you know a government's on its last legs when the whole opposition laughs at the absurdity of the Prime minister , while his own back benchers sulk.

Extraordinary behaviour by a UK Prime Minister. He stood at the dispatch box in the House of Commons and accused the PM of a friendly country and NATO ally of being a liar. Must be doing wonders for the image of the UK abroad.  

[steve]

Comedy gold from the Sunakered regime in response to the possibility of the UK rejoining the European union suggested by the Commission president.

" Sunak’s official spokesperson, replied that the British prime ministerdid not believe that Brexit was in peril. He told reporters at Westminster: “It’s through our Brexit freedoms that we are, right now, considering how to further strengthen our migration system.

“It is through our Brexit freedoms we are ensuring patients in the UK can get access to medicines faster, that there is improved animal welfare. That is very much what we are focused on.”

The spokesperson added: “We have a prime minister that championed Brexit before( a typosurely should read because) it was in his career interests to do so because he believes in it passionately. We are very focused on making a success of it.”

The only true element in this otherwise total visit into brexitanian alternative reality la la land was:

"We have a prime minister that championed Brexit because it was in his career interests."


www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-uk-rejoin-eu-ursula-b2455507.html?fbclid=IwAR2O-mIjhvuHLlOIfkvMD6etuXtDQkQ8AuWwLvHX9TzLYoW9FBL8Y73i9iM

[pjw1961]

Nov 29, 2023 11:40:25 GMT leftieliberal said:

I wouldn't normally quote from Unherd, but this is by Michael Crick, who I have always thought of as a reliable reporter.

Did Labour rig its selection votes?

Last week, however, a scandal erupted that suggests Labour may be just as sleazy and corrupt as some of its Conservative opponents. In the plum seat of Croydon East, there are complaints that Labour’s selection of a parliamentary candidate may have involved identity theft and voter manipulation. Moreover, there are suggestions that this could be part of a much wider campaign that involves senior party figures, a systematic programme of data protection offences, and interference in Labour’s supposedly democratic procedures.

Such allegations largely relate to the option for party members to use an electronic voting programme in parliamentary selections, which many see as a way for party bigwigs to fix elections for their chosen candidates. “The online voting is as dodgy as hell,” one successful candidate from outside London tells me. “There was an unbelievable discrepancy between votes on the day [of their selection meeting] and online votes.” Another candidate, who failed to win their distinguished reputation, added: “I was stitched up on the electronic online vote. I won the selection [among non-electric ballots] and the party machine then picked the winner, not the members.”

What form might this “stitch-up” take? According to Joanna O’Pray, an alleged victim in Croydon East, she discovered that an e-vote had been issued in her name, even though she hadn’t applied for one. The former youth worker has already complained to the police and the Information Commissioner, and has submitted a data protection request to the Labour Party demanding to know if somebody fraudulently voted in her name.

My Party also uses online voting for its internal selections, although this is run by an outside organisation. We used to use Electoral Reform Services but now use Mi-Voice. The records of who has and, more importantly, who has not voted should not be available to anyone in the Party until voting has closed. It seems that Labour have not even this basic safeguard.

Lets imagine for a moment that this is all 100% true (and I'm sure the Labour Party would strongly dispute it) would that make make Labour "just as sleazy and corrupt as some of its Conservative opponents"? Is it really 'corruption' compared to the Michelle Mone affair for example? Doesn't even involve money! I suppose Crick is giving himself an out by the word "some". 

For the record our experience in a non-target seat where no one is bothered who the candidate eventually turns out to be, is that the Labour Party's IT systems are utterly crap and none of them work as intended, so 'cock-up' rather than conspiracy is also a distinct possibility.  

[Deleted]

Another take on PMQs today. Too often in the past, Starmer has not found the back of the net, despite an often propitious backdrop. I thought he pretty much smashed it today, though. Delivered his lines with panache, and they visibly hit home.

Sunak looked all at sea, diminished and forlorn. His attempted ripostes cut no ice even with his own side, who looked sullen and resigned. There seemed to have been a shift of mood on the Tory benches, and Sunak was certainly not the beneficiary.

I wonder if we are seeing the beginning of the end of this hapless administration.


www.politics.co.uk/news-feature/2023/11/29/pmqs-verdict-brexit-didnt-save-reverse-midas-sunak-from-starmers-brutal-dressing-d

[neilj]

Redfield Wilton Scotland Westminster
'For the first time, Labour leads the SNP in our Westminster VI poll.

Scotland Westminster VI (26-27 November):

Labour 36% (+4)
SNP 34% (+2)
Conservative 17% (-6)
Lib Dem 6% (-2)
Reform 3% (+1)
Green 2% (–)
Other 0% (-1)

Changes +/- 29-30 October'

[Deleted]

Nov 29, 2023 17:29:55 GMT neilj said:

Redfield Wilton Scotland Westminster
'For the first time, Labour leads the SNP in our Westminster VI poll.

Scotland Westminster VI (26-27 November):

Labour 36% (+4)
SNP 34% (+2)
Conservative 17% (-6)
Lib Dem 6% (-2) in
Reform 3% (+1)
Green 2% (–)
Other 0% (-1)

Changes +/- 29-30 October'  

Pretty stark differences for SNP and LAB compared to the Ipsos poll.